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International agricultural research for development contributes to the development of agricultural technologies that aim to reduce poverty, increase incomes of resource-poor farmers in low and lower-middle income countries that provide poor consumers with affordable, healthy and sustainable diets. Setting priorities for demand driven breeding that service complex and dynamic agri-food systems, requires a strong evidence base. Efforts to provide foresight to support priority setting are often contested. Our paper aims to develop a parsimonious approach to better understand the regional landscape and contributions of the various crops to end hunger in the Global South. It thereby sets out to build a foundational understanding of the current situation as a robust starting point for looking into the future. The study shows the importance of being conscious of the impact lens of interest and the inherent data limitations by bringing together evidence in a transparent manner by making comprehensive and robust open access data sets interoperable and providing a method for generating a composite index to view the evidence. The available data allowed us to pursue two lenses: a Rural Livelihoods Lens (focused on food production/supply); a Food and Nutrition Lens (focused on food consumption/demand) and a composite index of the two.

A precarious food security situation implies that many countries in the Global South may not achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2) of zero hunger by 2030. We focus on the case of Uganda and explore food demand and food security implications for 2030, where 33% (15 million) of the population of 44 million are poor. Matooke (cooking bananas), cassava, and (sweet) potatoes are traditional foods in Uganda; however, the consumption of maize, wheat, and rice has been rising with increases in income and urbanization. Using the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) datasets of Uganda, this study estimated the demand for matooke, cassava and potatoes, maize/coarse grains, wheat and rice, vegetables, and meat and fish in 2030. Our findings confirm that with increases in income and demographic changes, the demand for these food items will increase drastically. To attain SDG2 of zero hunger, as well as food and nutrition security, this study calls for further investments in Uganda's agricultural sector to enhance domestic production capacity to meet the growing demand for food.

It is essential to increase food production to meet the projected population increase while reducing environmental loads. Biological nitrification inhibition (BNI)-enabled wheat genetic stocks are under development through chromosome engineering by transferring chromosomal regions carrying the BNI trait from a wild relative (Leymus racemosus (Lam.) Tzvelev) into elite wheat varieties; field evaluation of these newly developed BNI-wheat varieties has started. Ten years from now, BNI-enabled elite wheat varieties are expected to be deployed in wheat production systems. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of introducing these novel genetic solutions on life cycle greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) emissions, nitrogen (N) fertilizer application rates and N-use efficiency (NUE). Scenarios were developed based on evidence of nitrification inhibition and nitrous oxide (N2O) emission reduction by BNI crops and by synthetic nitrification inhibitors (SNIs), as both BNI-wheat and SNIs slow the nitrification process. Scenarios including BNI-wheat will inhibit nitrification by 30% by 2030 and 40% by 2050. It was assumed that N fertilizer application rates can potentially be reduced, as N losses through N2O emissions, leaching and runoff are expected to be lower. The results show that the impacts from BNI-wheat with 40% nitrification inhibition by 2050 are assessed to be positive: a 15.0% reduction in N fertilization, a 15.9% reduction in LC-GHG emissions, and a 16.7% improvement in NUE at the farm level. An increase in ammonia volatilization had little influence on the reduction in LC-GHG emissions. The GHG emissions associated with N fertilizer production and soil N2O emissions can be reduced between 7.3 and 9.5% across the wheat-harvested area worldwide by BNI-wheat with 30% and 40% nitrification inhibition, respectively. However, the present study recommends further technological developments (e.g. further developments in BNI-wheat and the development of more powerful SNIs) to reduce environmental impacts while improving wheat production to meet the increasing worldwide demand.

International crop-related research as conducted by the CGIAR uses crop modeling for a variety of purposes. By linking crop models with economic models and approaches, crop model outputs can be effectively used as inputs into socioeconomic modeling efforts for priority setting and policy advice using ex-ante impact assessment of technologies and scenario analysis. This requires interdisciplinary collaboration and very often collaboration across a variety of research organizations. This study highlights the key topics, purposes, and approaches of socioeconomic analysis within the CGIAR related to cropping systems. Although each CGIAR center has a different mission, all CGIAR centers share a common strategy of striving toward a world free of hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation. This means research is mostly focused toward resource-constrained smallholder farmers. The review covers global modeling efforts using the IMPACT model to farm household bio-economic models for assessing the potential impact of new technologies on farming systems and livelihoods. Although the CGIAR addresses all aspects of food systems, the focus of this review is on crop commodities and the economic analysis linked to crop-growth model results. This study, while not a comprehensive review, provides insights into the richness of the socioeconomic modeling endeavors within the CGIAR. The study highlights the need for interdisciplinary approaches to address the challenges this type of modeling faces.

Challenges related to poverty, hunger, nutrition, health, and the environment are widespread and urgent. One way to stress the urgency of making the right decisions about the future of the global food systems now is to better understand and more clearly articulate the alternative scenarios that food systems face. Developing, synthesizing, and presenting such alternatives to decision makers in a clear way is the ultimate goal of e CGIAR Foresight team.No single source of information focuses regularly and systematically on the future of food and agriculture, and challenges facing developing countries. Our work aims to fill that gap with a focus on agricultural income and employment.group systematically collects information about past, on-going and planned foresight activities across CGIAR centers and their partners, spanning the global agricultural research for development arenaWe present a comprehensive overview and synthesis of the results of relevant foresight research, which through the tagging with metadata allows for customized investigations in greater detail. The cross-cutting nature of this work allows for a more comprehensive picture and assessments of possible complementarities/trade-offs.Potential users of this report and associated activities include CGIAR science leaders and scientists as well as the broader research community, national and international development partners, national governments and research organizations, funders, and the private sector.The approach developed by the CGIAR foresight group is used to make foresight study results accessible across organizations and domains in order to aid policy and decision makers for strategic planning. The approach allows visualization of both the available information across multiple entry points as well as the identification of critical knowledge gaps.

The first occurrence of wheat blast in Bangladesh was confirmed in wheat (Triticum aestivum) fields in February 2016 and re-occurred in the subsequent years. This study explores the potential of alternative use of current wheat land as a strategy to combat the disease. Economically feasible alternative crops would need to be cultivated in the current wheat area by implementing a potential ‘wheat holiday’ – that is discontinuing wheat cultivation for a few years – be it in the 10 blast affected districts, in blast vulnerable districts or the entire country. An ex-ante economic assessment procedure is applied to examine the potential economic gains (losses) of alternative wheat land use. Results indicate maize, lentils, onions and garlic show potential as feasible alternatives if done as a portfolio combination and with adequate support to ameliorate and ease the transition; whereas boro rice, gram and potato do not appear feasible. Still, considering market volatility, overall food security and logistic challenges, the findings do not support a potentially comprehensive, strict and permanent ‘wheat holiday’ across the entire country. Instead, the study calls for research funding for disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-tolerant wheat varieties and complementary practices targeted at Bangladesh and the broader South Asian setting as a more sustainable and feasible solution to combat and manage wheat blast.

The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5–8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019–20 and increasing to 30% by 2027–28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029–30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23–1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia., Highlights • Emergence of wheat blast in Bangladesh severely threatens South Asia's food security. • CIMMYT and Bangladesh has developed the first blast resistant wheat in the world. • The blast resistant BARI Gom 33 is zinc enriched and provides 5–8% yield gain. • This study examines the economic benefits of the dissemination of BARI Gom 33. • Analysis shows that the potential economic benefit far exceeds its dissemination cost.

The emergence and spread of new crop diseases threatens the global food security situation. Phyllachora maydis, one of the three fungal pathogens involved in Tar Spot Complex (TSC) of maize, a disease native to Latin American countries, was detected for the first time in the United States of America (USA) in 2015. Although TSC has been previously reported to cause up to 50% of yield losses in maize in Latin America, the impact of P. maydis alone on maize yield is not known yet. However, there is a possibility that Monographella maydis, the second most important pathogen involved in TSC, would be introduced to the USA and would become associated with P. maydis and both pathogens could form the devastating complex disease in the country. The first objective of this study was to identify the TSC-vulnerable maize-producing regions across the USA by applying a climate homologue modeling procedure. The second objective was to quantify the potential economic impact of the disease on the maize industry in the USA. This study showed that even a 1% loss in maize production caused by the disease could potentially lead to a reduction in maize production by 1.5 million metric tons of grain worth US$231.6 million. Such production losses will affect not only the maize-related industries in the USA but also the food security in a number of low-income countries that are heavily dependent on US maize imports. This, in turn, may lead to increased poverty and starvation and, in some cases, to social unrest due to increased prices of maize-based staple foods. The study is intended to raise public awareness regarding potential TSC outbreaks and to develop strategies and action plans for such scenarios.

Wheat consumption in Asia’s major rice economies has been increasing over the decades. Bangladesh is no exception, despite being the world’s fourth largest rice-producing and the largest rice-consuming country. In Bangladesh, wheat consumption has doubled from 1961 to 2013, and now stands at 17.5 kg per capita, about a ninth of the rice consumption. Densely populated Bangladesh has achieved rice self-sufficiency, but relies on imports to top up modest domestic wheat production. This study assesses the prospects for Bangladesh to expand its wheat production. The rice–wheat production system offers good prospects to expand wheat production in Bangladesh and respond to increasing domestic demand. Based on the findings, this study urges the expansion of wheat production in the seasonally fallow land, particularly in southern Bangladesh. Also, this study calls for further investments in wheat research and development to ensure local adaptation, comparative advantage, and sustainable intensification.

Maize (Zea mays L.) use, mostly as poultry and fish feed, has been increasing rapidly in Bangladesh – a densely populated country with a rice-based agri-food system. Domestic maize production has increased despite land scarcity but failed to meet the growing demand, with imports making up the shortfall. The present study contextualizes Bangladesh’s domestic maize production potential and examines the determinants of current maize cultivation using data from 1.12 million farm households. We found maize cultivation to be positively associated with the farm resource endowments (favoring medium and large farms) and a favorable production environment, including the availability of registered seed dealers and land suitable for maize cultivation. Resource constraints still undermined the uptake of commercial maize cultivation by smallholders. Still, there remain good prospects for further expansion of maize production in Bangladesh and increased inclusion of smallholders. This calls for further research ...

Purpose Population and income are growing rapidly in South Asia, spurring the demand for food in general, and the demand for higher-valued food items in particular. This poses particular food security challenges for densely populated and emerging countries, such as Bangladesh. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the increasing and changing cereal consumption pattern in developing countries using Bangladesh as a case. Design/methodology/approach Using Bangladesh’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2000, 2005a, b data, and applying a two-stage quadratic almost ideal system estimation procedure, the present study separately estimates the expenditure elasticities for rural and urban households for five food items: rice, wheat and rice and wheat products, pulses, fish and vegetables. Second, using the estimated elasticities, projected population and the per capita GDP growth rates, this study projects the consumption of the sampled food items by 2030. Findings This study demonstrates that in 2030 both rural and urban households in Bangladesh will consume more wheat, pulses and fish, but the urban households will consume less rice compared to the current levels of consumption in 2015. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study on developing countries that examines the evolving food items consumption separately by rural and urban households. Using Bangladesh as a case, this study warns that with rapid urbanization and income growth, developing countries need to supply more wheat, fish and pulses. The provision of the maximum usage of scarce resources, such as arable land, the development and dissemination of improved varieties and the best management practices must be ensured to boost domestic food production in developing countries to cater to the future evolving food consumption.

Heterogeneous and multidisciplinary data generated by research on sustainable global agriculture and agrifood systems requires quality data labelling to be interoperable. As recommended by the FAIR principles, data, labels and metadata must use controlled vocabularies and ontologies that are popular in the knowledge domain and commonly used by the community. Despite the existence of robust ontologies in the Life Sciences, there is currently no agreed full set of ontologies recommended for data annotation across agricultural research disciplines, which may span genetics, environment, agroecology, biology and socioeconomics. In this paper, we discuss the added value of the Ontologies Community of Practice (CoP) of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture for harnessing relevant ontology expertise. This CoP aims to stimulate knowledge sharing and directly support platform development teams by producing ontologies or contributing missing concepts, recommending best practices and identifying mitigation solutions when gold standard datasets are difficult to attain.

Rural transformation is an inevitable and fundamental process of development. However, the speed and dimensions of rural transformation can affect investments in major staples such as maize, wheat and rice, which continue to play an important role in agri-food systems around the globe. This paper investigates the impacts of rural transformation on the future of cereal-based agri-food systems which are not directly addressed in global agricultural assessment models such as IMPACT. In this study, we present several key cases of major cereal systems undergoing different changes as a result of rural transformation processes across the major cereal baskets. We place these case studies in the perspective of IMPACT model scenario study results. Our study shows that the rural transformations that are taking place in different regions are heterogeneous with different impacts on the investment requirements for research and development (R&D) in the major cereals. It is concluded that although results of global agricultural assessment models such as IMPACT show initial large-scale effects on food system interactions, an iterative approach with more focused analyses on the complexities of rural transformation is needed to fine-tune results and place them in perspective.

In vast swathes of Sub-Saharan Africa, maize is the staple food with consumption of up to 450 g/person/day. Additionally, maize is used as a weaning food for infants as well as for special ceremonies, caring for the sick, aged and pregnant women. Malnutrition persists in regions with heavy maize consumption, partly due to compositional maize characteristics, nutrient loss during processing and consumer preferences. This paper reviews the traditional uses and processing of maize, opportunities and necessary improvements to ensure (micro)nutrient security. Better use of maize can enhance its contribution to meeting the dietary needs and livelihood of Africa’s growing populace.

The emergence of wheat-blast in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. A potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India's overall food security as wheat is its second most important staple food crop. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology, enhancing the prospects of the disease entering India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a 'wheat holiday' policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for at least two years. The present scoping study assesses the potential economic feasibility of alternative crops to wheat. Of the ten crops considered, maize, gram (chickpea), urad (black gram), rapeseed and mustard, and potatoes are found to be potentially feasible alternative crops. Any crop substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia.

Crop modelling has the potential to contribute to global food and nutrition security. This paper briefly examines the history of crop modelling by international crop research centres of the CGIAR (formerly Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research but now known simply as CGIAR), whose primary focus is on less developed countries. Basic principles of crop modelling building up to a Genotype × Environment × Management × Socioeconomic (G × E × M × S) paradigm, are explained. Modelling has contributed to better understanding of crop performance and yield gaps, better prediction of pest and insect outbreaks, and improving the efficiency of crop management including irrigation systems and optimization of planting dates. New developments include, for example, use of remote sensed data and mobile phone technology linked to crop management decision support models, data sharing in the new era of big data, and the use of genomic selection and crop simulation models linked to environmental data to help make crop breeding decisions. Socio-economic applications include foresight analysis of agricultural systems under global change scenarios, and the consequences of potential food system shocks are also described. These approaches are discussed in this paper which also calls for closer collaboration among disciplines in order to better serve the crop research and development communities by providing model based recommendations ranging from policy development at the level of governmental agencies to direct crop management support for resource poor farmers.

New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia-its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5-10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89-1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132-264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia.

Manure separation technologies are essential for sustainable livestock operations in areas with high livestock density as these technologies result in better utilization of manure and reduced environmental impact. Technologies for manure separation have been well researched and are ready for use. Their use, however, has been limited to the Netherlands. This paper investigates the role of farm and farmer characteristics and farmers' attitudes toward technology-specific attributes in influencing the likelihood of the adoption of mechanical manure separation technology. The analysis used survey data collected from 111 Dutch dairy farmers in 2009. The results showed that the age and education level of the farmer and farm size are important variables explaining the likelihood of adoption. In addition to farm and farmer characteristics, farmers' attitudes toward the different attributes of manure separation technology significantly affect the likelihood of adoption. The study generates useful information for policy makers, technology developers and distributors in identifying the factors that impact decision-making behaviors of farmers.

Land fragmentation is generally seen as an obstacle to agricultural productivity improvements, but it can also facilitate labor smoothing and risk diversification. In this paper we examine the impact of land fragmentation on the variable production costs of rice farmers in three villages in Jiangxi Province, P.R. China. We find that changes in the number of plots and plot size distribution, as measured by the Simpson index, do not affect total production costs per unit output, but cause a shift between cost categories. Farmers with more and smaller plots tend to use more labor and fewer modern technologies as compared to farmers with fewer and larger plots. Other aspects of land fragmentation, however, do affect total production costs. A reduction of the average distance to plots and an increase in farm size decrease the total production costs per ton. We conclude that land consolidation programs can only contribute to the joint policy goals of increasing agricultural production capacity and reducing the rural labor surplus, if such programs are accompanied by measures aimed at creating alternative market opportunities and at providing appropriate off-farm employment opportunities.

This paper studies the effects of endogenous investment decisions in a liberalised electricity market on prices and the environment in the time horizon 2000–2050. Therefore, a computational, game-theoretic, recursive dynamic model is developed. Simulations with the model indicate that perfect competition leads to lower prices and benefits the environment in the form of lower acid and smog emissions. Continued exercise of market power leads to postponed investments and more diversity in the technology portfolio, while under perfect competition there is an earlier switch to gas-based technologies.

In the discussion on targeting of development interventions there is an ongoing debate on the usefulness of geographic targeting versus targeting of specific household types. In this paper, we examine the degree to which there is heterogeneity in the diversity of livelihood strategies in comparable geographic areas in northern Ethiopia. We use the concept of development domains to quantify differences amongst specific geographic areas (communities) and estimate the degree to which development domain dimensions account for differences in production systems indicators and to what extent variability between the overall results and the observed patterns can be attributed to these development domain dimensions. Our research shows that development domain dimensions matter both for production indicators (choice of technology, investment, cropping pattern and livestock use), as well as for the occurrence of heterogeneity in those indicators. Diversity is especially linked to better market access, homogeneity in agricultural production indicators to poor soils. This offers scope for targeting development interventions. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deforestation in the north-western part of Pakistan is a long standing problem. Forest cover was 5% in 1996 compared to 20–25% in 1850 (Sungi 1996). In the district of Swat where the research was focused there is a gap (regrowth minus timbercuttings) of over 300 000 m3 for fuelwood alone (Sungi 1996). Historical accounts tell us that forests have always been an important source of income within the livelihood strategies of local populations (Barth 1985, Sultan-i-Rome 2005). Where in the past the vast expanses of forests could support these demands, high levels of population growth (doubling of the population every 15–20 years) coupled by deforestation have drastically altered the picture. Today, the local population faces ever-decreasing forest stocks with increasing threats to both the local communities (landslides, erosion) and downstream beneficiaries of the watersheds as well as increasing threats to biodiversity. In a broader perspective, Angelsen and Wunder (2003) distinguish five dimensions in which poor people benefit from forests and forest products: the type of beneficiaries, types of forest products and services provided, the role of forest benefits within the households strategy (subsistence versus commercial use), type of natural resource management (ranging from pure natural forest extraction to (re)planted forests) and high or low return products.

Definitions of sustainability have till now failed to suit both conceptual and operational purposes for lack of an appropriate analytical framework that can be used by biophysical and socio-economic sciences with equal ease. A framework for analysing sustainable land use is proposed which distinguishes between agro-ecological and socio-economic components and between different hierarchical system levels. In some detail the agro-ecological component is discussed in terms of changes in the stock of natural resources. Two decision-making levels with regard to land use, the farm level and the policy level are discussed in terms of the trade-offs between agro-ecological sustainability and socio-economic objectives.

Background: Addressing the nutritional needs of adolescents could be an important step towards breaking the vicious cycle of intergenerational malnutrition. Objective: Assess nutritional status of rural adolescent girls. Design: Cross-sectional. Methods: Anthropometric and socio-demographic information from 211 adolescent girls representing 650 randomly selected households from thirteen communities in Tigray was used in data analysis. Height-for-age and BMI-for-age were compared to the 2007 WHO growth reference. Data were analyzed using SAS, Version 9.1. Results: None of the households reported access to adolescent micronutrient supplementation. The girls were shorter and thinner than the 2007 WHO reference population. The cross-sectional prevalence of stunting and thinness were 26.5% and 58.3%, respectively. Lack of latrine facilities was significantly associated with stunting (p = 0.0033) and thinness (p

In Kenya, conservation and sustainable utilization of the environment and natural resources form an integral part of national planning and poverty reduction efforts. However, weak environmental management practices are a major impediment to agricultural productivity growth. This study was motivated by the paucity of literature on the poverty-environment nexus in Kenya, since poverty, agricultural stagnation and environmental degradation are issues of policy interest in the country’s development strategy. The paper builds on the few existing studies from Kenya and explores the impact of household, farm and village characteristics as well as the development domain dimensions on household welfare and investment in soil and water conservation. The results show that strengthening the tenure security improves household welfare. Further, soil quality, topography and investments in soil and water conservation affect household welfare. Agroecological potential, which is related to environmental conservation, is also a key correlate of poverty. Results for investment in water and soil conservation confirm the importance of tenure security in determining adoption and also the intensity of SWC investments. We also find that household assets, farm characteristics, presence of village institutions and development domain dimensions are important determinants of adoption and intensity of soil and water conservation investments. The results for both poverty and investment in soil and water conservation suggest the existence of a strong poverty-environment link in our sample. The results also suggest that rural poverty can be alleviated by policies that improve environmental conservation and strengthen land tenure security. The study also underscores the importance of village institutions in both investment adoption of soil and water conservation and in improving household welfare.

Deforestation in the North western part of Pakistan is a long standing problem. The Forestry Department, as formal managers of the forest resources, has been undergoing a long reform process aimed at improving its performance. This reform process has not resulted in less deforestation. From the policy perspective this has been leading to stated intentions to further reform the Forestry Department, the question is whether organizational reform is the answer. We think there are more limiting bottlenecks to sustainable forest management in Pakistan. De facto property rights are not as simple as denoted by statutory law. In this article we explore the mechanisms behind the deforestation and try to uncover mechanisms to reverse the process. Although our conclusions are not very optimistic, we provide a framework for determining the bottlenecks in the management of common resources from the perspective of institutions. We show that in circumstances where institutional change is necessary we are faced with a trade-off between the transaction costs related to the enforcement of “improved” institutional arrangements and the transaction costs improving enforceable institutional arrangements. Incurring these transaction costs only makes sense if the benefits from improved institutional arrangements outweigh them and the transition costs. When we relate this dilemma to the management regime of the forest in North west Pakistan, we identify at the one end of the spectrum the ideal forest management system; at the other end we see the spontaneous evolution of self organization. The current situation is an intermediate form with an incoherent set of external interventions and strategic reactions by different agents in the local communities. The emergent system of management is the one producing the present dismal outcome.

Deforestation in the North western part of Pakistan is a long standing problem. The Forestry Department, as formal managers of the forest resources, has been undergoing a long reform process aimed at improving its performance. This reform process has not resulted in less deforestation. From the policy perspective this has been leading to stated intentions to further reform the Forestry Department, the question is whether organizational reform is the answer. We think there are more limiting bottlenecks to sustainable forest management in Pakistan. De facto property rights are not as simple as denoted by statutory law. In this article we explore the mechanisms behind the deforestation and try to uncover mechanisms to reverse the process. Although our conclusions are not very optimistic, we provide a framework for determining the bottlenecks in the management of common resources from the perspective of institutions. We show that in circumstances where institutional change is necessary we are faced with a trade-off between the transaction costs related to the enforcement of “improved” institutional arrangements and the transaction costs improving enforceable institutional arrangements. Incurring these transaction costs only makes sense if the benefits from improved institutional arrangements outweigh them and the transition costs. When we relate this dilemma to the management regime of the forest in North west Pakistan, we identify at the one end of the spectrum the ideal forest management system; at the other end we see the spontaneous evolution of self organization. The current situation is an intermediate form with an incoherent set of external interventions and strategic reactions by different agents in the local communities. The emergent system of management is the one producing the present dismal outcome.

Water harvesting is an important tool for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change. This report investigates the trade-offs between health and poverty reduction by considering the impacts of water harvesting on health in Tigray region, northern Ethiopia. In particular, we assess the prevalence of malaria in association with ponds and wells. The determinants of malaria incidence are explored with multivariate analysis. We investigate people’s willingness to pay (WTP) for improved malaria control using a contingent valuation method (CVM). We applied a double-bounded dichotomous choice CV surveys to elicit households’ WTP for improved health services to control malaria. With interval regression, the WTP was explained as a function of household characteristics, health and health service conditions, and village level factors. The malaria prevalence rate is very high, more than 30 percent in low land communities, although rates are higher after the rainy season. This suggests that ponds and wells are important factors in determining the prevalence of malaria. Better housing conditions, toilet type, and availability of bed nets are all factors which reduce the incidenceof malaria. Pond and well ownership affects the WTP for improved malaria control in a negative and positive way respectively, indicating differences in their economic attractiveness. WTP decreases with altitude and thus malaria incidence. Education and household asset holding generally increases WTP for improved health services. The results suggest that valuation results on household’s WTP in poor economies may be underestimated because of cash constraint. Consequently, alternative payment vehicles in eliciting households’ WTP have to be considered. Similarly, the estimated mean WTP for the external health cost of wells and ponds may be underestimated. In our case, ponds and wells are not fully exploited, as our results suggest that they do not contribute to household income or welfare. Thus the presence of ponds and wells pose high external costs to the economy.

Contains fulltext : 56235.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) Strategies for poverty alleviation and sustainable natural resource management usually focus on land use options for improving yields. Increasing the returns to critical factors requires possibilities for input substitution. Inadequate timing of input applications or nonavailability of complementary factors can seriously hinder this substitution. Such constraints particularly apply in less-favored areas where soil organic matter content is too low for enabling efficient nutrient uptake and soil structure limits water infiltration and moisture retention. This article focuses attention on the importance of labor for crop management activities and input applications that enhance input efficiency in highland area cropping systems of Northern Ethiopia. Given the inherent complementarities between labor and nutrient supply during critical phases of the plant growth process, input efficiency strongly depends on labor use. We present a semiparametric bioeconomic modeling approach to analyze the available options for improving input efficiency in agricultural production. Input response equations are used that consider the returns per unit of land and labor as a function of specific combinations of material inputs and management practices. Critical trade-offs may arise when opportunity costs for labor are considered or when complementary factors appear as binding constraints. The model enables assessment of feasible pathways for enhancing sustainable intensification and poverty alleviation in typical settings of the East African highland region. 16 p.

In this chapter we give an overview of a number of approaches used in the biophysical sciences to quanta the relationship between agricultural production and soil degradation. First the concept of soil degradation is discussed, and the various components detailed. Then the approaches are assessed in the context of bio-economic models in which biophysical processes are linked to decision making processes at household, village and regional levels. The main emphasis of the chapter is on the household level where the direct interaction between decision makers and the biophysical processes takes place. Different biophysical approaches are presented, used for generation of data for incorporation in bioeconomic models.

Farm household modelling is a powerful tool to aid policy makers with the analysis of sustainable land use. This paper gives the methodological foundations for a farm household simulation approach encompassing the results from quantified agronomic models, based on parametric optimisation. The paper discusses shortcomings and advantages of different approaches underlying the methodology, and demonstrates how these can be integrated into a pragmatic framework. Starting with a basic farm household model extensions are made and methods described to make those extensions operational. While econometric analysis alone is an insufficient tool to fully explain all relevant household behaviour, it is an important element in the approach. The results of the optimisation model are used in metamodelling exercises that summarise the relationship between exogenous parameters and indicator variables, to account for endogenous prices at the regional level.

This article presents a bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment of the effectiveness of different agrarian policies to improve farm household income and soil fertility. Farm household decisions on allocation of land, labour and capital resources for crop and production technique choice are simulated, taking into account resource availability, household objectives and prevailing market conditions. The modelling framework relies on a combination of three procedures: (1) farm household modelling, (2) linear programming, and (3) partial equilibrium analysis. These procedures are applied to evaluate the impact at farm household and regional level of technology improvement and a variety of policy instruments: improvement of infrastructure, price support, land policy and credit schemes. Regional aggregation allows prices to be determined endogenously on regional markets. The approach is applied to the Cercle de Koutiala in Mali, for which selected results are given as an example. Results indicate that technology alone cannot sufficiently induce farmers to adopt sustainable production systems. Additional economic incentives are necessary to foster technological change.

To identify appropriate interventions that support sustainable land use, a farm household modelling approach is applied to analyze micro-economic supply reactions to various policy measures. The modelling framework links agro-technical and economic data, and takes both production and consumption decisions into account, allowing land use and production technology adjustments in accordance with farm household objectives. Different types of farm households are distinguished on the basis of their resource endowments, savings coefficients and time discount rate. Actual and alternative (sustainable) cropping and livestock activities for different weather regimes are defined for southern Mali. The effects on sustainable land use and expected farm household welfare of adopting alternative technologies and modifying prices, transaction costs, access to credit and land taxes are demonstrated. Even with full information on sustainable technologies, strong policy interventions are required to halt soil degradation. Structural policies proved to be more effective than price policies to reduce soil degradation while maintaining positive income effects. When prices are determined endogenously, structural policy loses some effectiveness as an incentive for sustainable land use due to the effect of additional supply on local cereal and meat prices. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Agrarian policies for sustainable land use require the selection of appropriate policy instruments to influence resource allocation decisions by farmers. A farm household modelling approach is applied to identify microeconomic supply response reactions to various policy measures. Production and consumption decisions are simultaneously analysed, permitting an appraisal of adjustments in land use in accordance with farm household welfare objectives. Four types of farm household are identified according to their resource endowments and objective functions to acknowledge different directions of supply response reactions. The modelling framework is based on the linkage of data sets from agrotechnical and socio-economic sources. Actual and alternative (sustainable) cropping and livestock activities are defined according to soil and weather conditions, production techniques and soil management practices, and their consequences for the nutrient and carbon balance. Farm household resource endowments and expenditures condition allocation procedures. Dynamic properties are incorporated into the model through the savings and investment module, while a time discount rate accounts for risk behaviour. Food and labour balances are identified for the appraisal of market interactions and exchange among farm types. Policy consequences of this modelling approach are illustrated for the case of Koutiala Cercle in southern Mali. The effects of modifications in market prices of food and cash crops, input prices, transaction costs, credit supply and land policy are demonstrated, and trade-offs between objectives of farm household welfare and sustainable land use are acknowledged.