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1. Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Author

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Ganti, Gaurav, Lejeune, Quentin, Zhu, Biqing, Pfleiderer, Peter, Prütz, Ruben, Ciais, Philippe, Frölicher, Thomas L., Fuss, Sabine, Gasser, Thomas, Gidden, Matthew J., Kropf, Chahan M., Lacroix, Fabrice, Lamboll, Robin, Martyr, Rosanne, Maussion, Fabien, McCaughey, Jamie W., Meinshausen, Malte, Mengel, Matthias, Nicholls, Zebedee, Quilcaille, Yann, Sanderson, Benjamin, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Sillmann, Jana, Smith, Christopher J., Steinert, Norman J., Theokritoff, Emily, Warren, Rachel, Price, Jeff, and Rogelj, Joeri

Published
2024
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3. The carbon dioxide removal gap

Author

Lamb, William F., Gasser, Thomas, Roman-Cuesta, Rosa M., Grassi, Giacomo, Gidden, Matthew J., Powis, Carter M., Geden, Oliver, Nemet, Gregory, Pratama, Yoga, Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Stephen M., Steinhauser, Jan, Vaughan, Naomi E., Smith, Harry B., and Minx, Jan C.

Published
2024
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9. Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned

Author

Pfenninger, Stefan, Hirth, Lion, Schlecht, Ingmar, Schmid, Eva, Wiese, Frauke, Brown, Tom, Davis, Chris, Fais, Birgit, Gidden, Matthew, Heinrichs, Heidi, Heuberger, Clara, Hilpert, Simon, Krien, Uwe, Matke, Carsten, Nebel, Arjuna, Morrison, Robbie, Müller, Berit, Pleßmann, Guido, Reeg, Matthias, Richstein, Jörn C., Shivakumar, Abhishek, Staffell, Iain, Tröndle, Tim, and Wingenbach, Clemens

Subjects
Computer Science - Computers and Society, Computer Science - General Literature
Abstract

The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research., Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure

Published
2017
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10. The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7.

Author

Sanderson, Benjamin M., Booth, Ben B. B., Dunne, John, Eyring, Veronika, Fisher, Rosie A., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gidden, Matthew J., Hajima, Tomohiro, Jones, Chris D., Jones, Colin G., King, Andrew, Koven, Charles D., Lawrence, David M., Lowe, Jason, Mengis, Nadine, Peters, Glen P., Rogelj, Joeri, Smith, Chris, Snyder, Abigail C., and Simpson, Isla R.

Abstract

Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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16. Cyclus Archetypes

Author

Scopatz, Anthony M., Gidden, Matthew J., Carlsen, Robert W., Flanagan, Robert R., Huff, Kathryn D., McGarry, Meghan B., Opotowsky, Arrielle C., Rakhimov, Olzhas, Welch, Zach, and Wilson, Paul P. H.

Subjects
Computer Science - Software Engineering
Abstract

The current state of nuclear fuel cycle simulation exists in highly customized form. Satisfying a wide range of users requires model modularity within such a tool. Cyclus is a fuel cycle simulator specifically designed to combat the lack of adaptability of previous generations of simulators. This is accomplished through an agent-based infrastructure and treating time discretely. The Cyclus kernel was developed to allow for models, called archetypes, of differing fidelity and function depending on need of the users. To take advantage of this flexibility, a user must write an archetype for their desired simulation if it does not yet exist within the Cyclus ecosystem. At this stage, a user graduates to the title of archetype developer. Without automation, archetype development is difficult for the uninitiated. This paper presents the framework developed for simplifying the writing of archetypes: the Cyclus preprocessor, or cycpp. cycpp addresses the computer science and software development aspects of archetype development that can be addressed algorithmically, allowing the developer to focus on modeling the physics, social policies, and economics. cycpp passes through the code three times to perform the following tasks: normalizing the code via the C preprocessor, accumulation of notations, and code generation. Not only does this reduce the amount of code a developer must write by approximately an order of magnitude, but the archetypes are automatically validated.

Published
2015

17. Fundamental concepts in the Cyclus nuclear fuel cycle simulation framework

Author

Huff, Kathryn D., Gidden, Matthew J., Carlsen, Robert W., Flanagan, Robert R., McGarry, Meghan B., Opotowsky, Arrielle C., Schneider, Erich A., Scopatz, Anthony M., and Wilson, Paul P. H.

Subjects
Computer Science - Software Engineering, Computer Science - Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science, Computer Science - Multiagent Systems, Computer Science - Mathematical Software, D.2.13, I.6.7, I.6.8, D.2.4
Abstract

As nuclear power expands, technical, economic, political, and environmental analyses of nuclear fuel cycles by simulators increase in importance. To date, however, current tools are often fleet-based rather than discrete and restrictively licensed rather than open source. Each of these choices presents a challenge to modeling fidelity, generality, efficiency, robustness, and scientific transparency. The Cyclus nuclear fuel cycle simulator framework and its modeling ecosystem incorporate modern insights from simulation science and software architecture to solve these problems so that challenges in nuclear fuel cycle analysis can be better addressed. A summary of the Cyclus fuel cycle simulator framework and its modeling ecosystem are presented. Additionally, the implementation of each is discussed in the context of motivating challenges in nuclear fuel cycle simulation. Finally, the current capabilities of Cyclus are demonstrated for both open and closed fuel cycles.

Published
2015
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19. Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal much larger than previously suggested: insights from an AI-enhanced systematic map

Author

Lück, Sarah, primary, Callaghan, Max, additional, Borchers, Malgorzata, additional, Cowie, Annette, additional, Fuss, Sabine, additional, Geden, Oliver, additional, Gidden, Matthew, additional, Hartmann, Jens, additional, Kammann, Claudia, additional, Keller, David P., additional, Kraxner, Florian, additional, Lamb, William, additional, Dowell, Niall Mac, additional, Müller-Hansen, Finn, additional, Nemet, Gregory, additional, Probst, Benedict, additional, Renforth, Phil, additional, Repke, Tim, additional, Rickels, Wilfried, additional, Schulte, Ingrid, additional, Smith, Pete, additional, Smith, Stephen M, additional, Thrän, Daniela, additional, Spek, Mijndert van der, additional, and Minx, Jan C., additional

Published
2024
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21. Bringing it all together: Science and modelling priorities to support international climate policy

Author

Jones, Colin Gareth, primary, Adloff, Fanny, additional, Booth, Ben, additional, Cox, Peter, additional, Eyring, Veronika, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Frieler, Katja, additional, Hewitt, Helene, additional, Jeffery, Hazel, additional, Joussaume, Sylvie, additional, Koenigk, Torben, additional, Lawrence, Bryan N., additional, O'Rourke, Eleanor, additional, Roberts, Malcolm, additional, Sanderson, Benjamin, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Somot, Samuel, additional, Vidale, Pier-Luigi, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef, additional, Acosta, Mario, additional, Bentsen, Mats, additional, Bernardello, Raffaele, additional, Betts, Richard, additional, Blockley, Ed, additional, Boé, Julien, additional, Bracegirdle, Tom, additional, Braconnot, Pascale, additional, Brovkin, Victor, additional, Buontempo, Carlo, additional, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., additional, Donat, Markus G., additional, Epicoco, Italo, additional, Falloon, Pete, additional, Fiore, Sandro, additional, Froelicher, Thomas, additional, Fuckar, Neven, additional, Gidden, Matthew, additional, Goessling, Helge, additional, Graversen, Rune Grand, additional, Gualdi, Silvio, additional, Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Jacob, Daniela, additional, Jones, Chris, additional, Juckes, Martin, additional, Kendon, Elizabeth, additional, Kjellström, Erik, additional, Knutti, Reto, additional, Lowe, Jason A., additional, Mizielinski, Matthew, additional, Nassisi, Paola, additional, Obersteiner, Michael, additional, Regnier, Pierre, additional, Roehrig, Romain, additional, Salas y Melia, David, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Schulz, Michael, additional, Scoccimarro, Enrico, additional, Terray, Laurent, additional, Thiemann, Hannes, additional, Wood, Richard, additional, Yang, Shuting, additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2024
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25. Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison

Author

Bauer, Nico, Rose, Steven K., Fujimori, Shinichiro, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Weyant, John, Wise, Marshall, Cui, Yiyun, Daioglou, Vassilis, Gidden, Matthew J., Kato, Etsushi, Kitous, Alban, Leblanc, Florian, Sands, Ronald, Sano, Fuminori, Strefler, Jessica, Tsutsui, Junichi, Bibas, Ruben, Fricko, Oliver, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Klein, David, Kurosawa, Atsushi, Mima, Silvana, and Muratori, Matteo

Published
2020
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31. Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Author

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, primary, Ganti, Gaurav, additional, Lejeune, Quentin, additional, Zhu, Biqing, additional, Pfleiderer, Peter, additional, Prütz, Ruben, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Frölicher, Thomas L, additional, Fuss, Sabine, additional, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Gidden, Matthew J, additional, Kropf, Chahan M, additional, Lamboll, Robin, additional, Koller, Rosanne Martyr, additional, Maussion, Fabien, additional, Mccaughey, Jamie W, additional, Meinshausen, Malte, additional, Mengel, Matthias, additional, Nicholls, Zebedee, additional, Quilcaille, Yann, additional, Sanderson, Benjamin, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia, additional, Sillmann, Jana, additional, Smith, Christopher J, additional, Theokritoff, Emily, additional, Warren, Rachel, additional, and Rogelj, Joeri, additional

Published
2023
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33. The need for carbon emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Author

Sanderson, Benjamin Mark, primary, Booth, Ben B. B., additional, Dunne, John, additional, Eyring, Veronika, additional, Fisher, Rosie A., additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Gidden, Matthew J., additional, Hajima, Tomohiro, additional, Jones, Chris D., additional, Jones, Colin, additional, King, Andrew, additional, Koven, Charles D., additional, Lawrence, David M., additional, Lowe, Jason, additional, Mengis, Nadine, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, Smith, Chris, additional, Snyder, Abigail C., additional, Simpson, Isla R., additional, Swann, Abigail L. S., additional, Tebaldi, Claudia, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Seferian, Roland, additional, Samset, Bjørn Hallvard, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef, additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2023
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36. Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned

Author

Pfenninger, Stefan, Hirth, Lion, Schlecht, Ingmar, Schmid, Eva, Wiese, Frauke, Brown, Tom, Davis, Chris, Gidden, Matthew, Heinrichs, Heidi, Heuberger, Clara, Hilpert, Simon, Krien, Uwe, Matke, Carsten, Nebel, Arjuna, Morrison, Robbie, Müller, Berit, Pleßmann, Guido, Reeg, Matthias, Richstein, Jörn C., Shivakumar, Abhishek, Staffell, Iain, Tröndle, Tim, and Wingenbach, Clemens

Published
2018
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38. A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

Author

Rogelj, Joeri, Huppmann, Daniel, Krey, Volker, Riahi, Keywan, Clarke, Leon, Gidden, Matthew, and Nicholls, Zebedee

Subjects
Long term planning -- Methods, Global temperature changes -- Forecasts and trends -- Control, Plots (Drama, novel, etc.) -- Environmental aspects, Government regulation, Market trend/market analysis, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015
Abstract

To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices. Fundamental value judgments about acceptable maximum levels of climate change and future reliance on controversial technologies can be made explicitly in climate scenarios, thereby addressing the intergenerational bias present in the scenario literature., Author(s): Joeri Rogelj [sup.1] [sup.2] [sup.3] , Daniel Huppmann [sup.1] , Volker Krey [sup.1] [sup.4] , Keywan Riahi [sup.1] [sup.5] , Leon Clarke [sup.6] , Matthew Gidden [sup.1] , Zebedee [...]

Published
2019
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39. The carbon dioxide removal gap

Author

Lamb, William, primary, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Gidden, Matthew, additional, Powis, Carter, additional, Geden, Oliver, additional, Nemet, Gregory, additional, Pratama, Yoga, additional, Riahi, Keywan, additional, Smith, Stephen M, additional, Steinhauser, Jan, additional, Vaughan, Naomi E., additional, and Minx, Jan C., additional

Published
2023
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40. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Author

Roelfsema, Mark, van Soest, Heleen L., Harmsen, Mathijs, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Höhne, Niklas, Iacobuta, Gabriela, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Luderer, Gunnar, Riahi, Keywan, Ueckerdt, Falko, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Gidden, Matthew, Humpenöder, Florian, Huppmann, Daniel, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gi, Keii, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Rochedo, Pedro, Schaeffer, Roberto, Oshiro, Ken, Vrontisi, Zoi, Chen, Wenying, Iyer, Gokul C., Edmonds, Jae, Kannavou, Maria, Jiang, Kejun, Mathur, Ritu, Safonov, George, and Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma

Published
2020
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41. Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

McCollum, David L., Zhou, Wenji, Bertram, Christoph, de Boer, Harmen-Sytze, Bosetti, Valentina, Busch, Sebastian, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fay, Marianne, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gidden, Matthew, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Iyer, Gokul, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Nicolas, Claire, Pachauri, Shonali, Parkinson, Simon, Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel, Rafaj, Peter, Rao, Narasimha, Rozenberg, Julie, Schmitz, Andreas, Schoepp, Wolfgang, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Riahi, Keywan

Published
2018
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43. Secure robust carbon dioxide removal policy through credible certification

Author

Global Sustainability Governance, Environmental Governance, Schenuit, Felix, Gidden, Matthew J., Boettcher, Miranda, Brutschin, Elina, Fyson, Claire, Gasser, Thomas, Geden, Oliver, Lamb, William F., Mace, M. J., Minx, Jan C., Riahi, Keywan, Global Sustainability Governance, Environmental Governance, Schenuit, Felix, Gidden, Matthew J., Boettcher, Miranda, Brutschin, Elina, Fyson, Claire, Gasser, Thomas, Geden, Oliver, Lamb, William F., Mace, M. J., Minx, Jan C., and Riahi, Keywan

Published
2023

44. Near-term deployment of novel carbon removal to facilitate longer-term deployment

Author

Nemet, Gregory F., Gidden, Matthew J., Greene, Jenna, Roberts, Cameron, Lamb, William F., Minx, Jan C., Smith, Stephen M., Geden, Oliver, Riahi, Keywan, Nemet, Gregory F., Gidden, Matthew J., Greene, Jenna, Roberts, Cameron, Lamb, William F., Minx, Jan C., Smith, Stephen M., Geden, Oliver, and Riahi, Keywan

Abstract

Scenarios—which account for the costs of and interactions among different mitigation options—show that we will need to remove hundreds of gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere over the course of the century to limit warming to well below 2°C, make efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, and ensure the sustained well-being of our planet. Yet at present, only 2 Gt is being removed per year, and nearly all of it is from forestry—only 0.1% is from novel forms of carbon removal. This commentary shows that the deployment of novel CO2 removal (CDR) over the next decade, its formative phase, is likely to be consequential in determining whether CDR will be available at scale and in time to reach net-zero CO2 emissions consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.

Published
2023
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49. The carbon dioxide removal gap: current removals and country proposals versus future requirements for limiting warming to 2°C or lower

Author

Lamb, William F., primary, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Minx, Jan, additional, Gidden, Matthew, additional, Powis, Carter, additional, Geden, Oliver, additional, Nemet, Gregory, additional, Pratama, Yoga, additional, Riahi, Keywan, additional, Smith, Stephen, additional, and Steinhauser, Jan, additional

Published
2023
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