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De novodonor-specific antibodies (dnDSAs) that develop after renal transplantation are independent predictors of allograft loss. However, it is unknown if dnDSA C1q status or titer at the time of first detection can independently predict allograft loss. In a consecutive cohort of 508 renal transplant recipients, 70 developed dnDSAs. Histologic and clinical outcomes were correlated with the C1q assay or dnDSA titer. C1q positivity correlated with dnDSA titer (p < 0.01) and mean fluorescence intensity (p < 0.01) and was more common in class II versus class I dnDSAs (p < 0.01). C1q status correlated with tubulitis (p = 0.02) and C4d status (p = 0.03) in biopsies at the time of dnDSA development, but not T cell–mediated rejection (TCMR) or antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR). De novoDSA titer correlated with Banff g, i, t, ptc, C4d scores, TCMR (p < 0.01) and ABMR (p < 0.01). Post-dnDSA graft loss was observed more frequently in recipients with C1q-positve dnDSA (p < 0.01) or dnDSA titer ≥ 1:1024 (p ≤ 0.01). However, after adjustment for clinical phenotype and nonadherence in multivariate models, neither C1q status nor dnDSA titer were independently associated with allograft loss, questioning the utility of these assays at the time of dnDSA development.

Understanding rates and determinants of clinical pathologic progression for recipients with de novodonor-specific antibody (dnDSA), especially subclinical dnDSA, may identify surrogate endpoints and inform clinical trial design. A consecutive cohort of 508 renal transplant recipients (n = 64 with dnDSA) was studied. Recipients (n = 388) without dnDSA or dysfunction had an eGFR decline of −0.65 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. In recipients with dnDSA, the rate eGFR decline was significantly increased prior to dnDSA onset (−2.89 vs. −0.65 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, p < 0.0001) and accelerated post-dnDSA (−3.63 vs. −2.89 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, p < 0.0001), suggesting that dnDSA is both a marker and contributor to ongoing alloimmunity. Time to 50% post-dnDSA graft loss was longer in recipients with subclinical versus a clinical dnDSA phenotype (8.3 vs. 3.3 years, p < 0.0001). Analysis of 1091 allograft biopsies found that dnDSA and time independently predicted chronic glomerulopathy (cg), but not interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA). Early T cell–mediated rejection, nonadherence, and time were multivariate predictors of IFTA. Independent risk factors for post-dnDSA graft survival available prior to, or at the time of, dnDSA detection were delayed graft function, nonadherence, dnDSA mean fluorescence intensity sum score, tubulitis, and cg. Ultimately, dnDSA is part of a continuum of mixed alloimmune-mediated injury, which requires solutions targeting T and B cells.

De novodonor-specific antibody (dnDSA) develops in 15–25% of renal transplant recipients within 5 years of transplantation and is associated with 40% lower graft survival at 10 years. HLA epitope matching is a novel strategy that may minimize dnDSA development. HLAMatchmaker software was used to characterize epitope mismatches at 395 potential HLA-DR/DQ/DP conformational epitopes for 286 donor–recipient pairs. Epitope specificities were assigned using single antigen HLA bead analysis and correlated with known monoclonal alloantibody epitope targets. Locus-specific epitope mismatches were more numerous in patients who developed HLA-DR dnDSA alone (21.4 vs. 13.2, p < 0.02) or HLA-DQ dnDSA alone (27.5 vs. 17.3, p < 0.001). An optimal threshold for epitope mismatches (10 for HLA-DR, 17 for HLA-DQ) was defined that was associated with minimal development of Class II dnDSA. Applying these thresholds, zero and 2.7% of patients developed dnDSA against HLA-DR and HLA-DQ, respectively, after a median of 6.9 years. Epitope specificity analysis revealed that 3 HLA-DR and 3 HLA-DQ epitopes were independent multivariate predictors of Class II dnDSA. HLA-DR and DQ epitope matching outperforms traditional low-resolution antigen-based matching and has the potential to minimize the risk of de novoClass II DSA development, thereby improving long-term graft outcome.

The natural history for patients with de novodonor-specific antibodies (dnDSA) and the risk factors for its development have not been well defined. Furthermore, clinical and histologic correlation with serologic data is limited. We studied 315 consecutive renal transplants without pretransplant DSA, with a mean follow-up of 6.2 ± 2.9 years. Protocol (n = 215) and for cause (n = 163) biopsies were analyzed. Solid phase assays were used to screen for dnDSA posttransplant. A total of 47 out of 315 (15%) patients developed dnDSA at a mean of 4.6 ± 3.0 years posttransplant. Independent predictors of dnDSA were HLA-DRβ1 MM > 0 (OR 5.66, p < 0.006); and nonadherence (OR 8.75, p < 0.001); with a strong trend toward clinical rejection episodes preceding dnDSA (OR 1.57 per rejection episode, p = 0.061). The median 10-year graft survival for those with dnDSA was lower than the No dnDSA group (57% vs. 96%, p < 0.0001). Pathology consistent with antibody-mediated injury can occur and progress in patients with dnDSA in the absence of graft dysfunction and furthermore, nonadherence and cellular rejection contribute to dnDSA development and progression to graft loss.