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Abstract Recent epidemiological studies have suggested a positive association between ultra-processed food consumption and breast cancer risk, although some studies also reported no association. Furthermore, the evidence regarding the associations between intake of food with lower degrees of processing and breast cancer risk is limited. Thus, we investigated the associations between dietary intake by degree of food processing and breast cancer risk, overall and by breast cancer subtypes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Dietary intake of EPIC participants was assessed via questionnaires at baseline. More than 11,000 food ingredients were classified into four groups of food processing levels using the NOVA classification system: unprocessed/minimally processed (NOVA 1), culinary ingredients (NOVA 2), processed (NOVA 3) and ultra-processed (NOVA 4). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer per standard deviation increase in daily consumption (grams) of foods from each NOVA group. The current analysis included 14,933 breast cancer cases, diagnosed among the 318,686 EPIC female participants, (median follow-up of 14.9 years). No associations were found between breast cancer risk and the level of dietary intake from NOVA 1 [HR per 1 SD=0.99 (95% CI 0.97 – 1.01)], NOVA 2 [HR per 1 SD =1.01 (95% CI 0.98 – 1.03)] and NOVA 4 [HR per 1 SD =1.01 (95% CI 0.99 – 1.03)] foods. However, a positive association was found between NOVA 3 and breast cancer risk [HR per 1 SD =1.05 (95% CI 1.03 – 1.07)] which became non-significant after adjustment for alcohol intake [HR per 1 SD =1.01 (95% CI 0.98 – 1.05)] or when beer and wine were excluded from this group [HR per 1 SD =0.99 (95% CI 0.97 – 1.01)]. The associations did not differ by breast cancer subtype, menopausal status or body mass index. Findings from this large-scale prospective study suggest that the positive association between processed food intake and breast cancer risk was likely driven by alcoholic beverage consumption. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Background While genetic, hormonal, and lifestyle factors partially elucidate the incidence of breast cancer, emerging research has underscored the potential contribution of air pollution. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) are of particular concern due to endocrine-disrupting properties and their carcinogenetic effect. Objective To identify distinct long term trajectories of exposure to PCB153 and BaP, and estimate their associations with breast cancer risk. Methods We used data from the XENAIR case–control study, nested within the ongoing prospective French E3N cohort which enrolled 98,995 women aged 40–65 years in 1990–1991. Cases were incident cases of primary invasive breast cancer diagnosed from cohort entry to 2011. Controls were randomly selected by incidence density sampling, and individually matched to cases on delay since cohort entry, and date, age, department of residence, and menopausal status at cohort entry. Annual mean outdoor PCB153 and BaP concentrations at residential addresses from 1990 to 2011 were estimated using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model. Latent class mixed models were used to identify profiles of exposure trajectories from cohort entry to the index date, and conditional logistic regression to estimate their association with the odds of breast cancer. Results 5058 cases and 5059 controls contributed to the analysis. Five profiles of trajectories of PCB153 exposure were identified. The class with the highest PCB153 concentrations had a 69% increased odds of breast cancer compared to the class with the lowest concentrations (95% CI 1.08, 2.64), after adjustment for education and matching factors. The association between identified BaP trajectories and breast cancer was weaker and suffered from large CI. Conclusions Our results support an association between long term exposure to PCB153 and the risk of breast cancer, and encourage further studies to account for lifetime exposure to persistent organic pollutants.

Western studies have shown a non-linear association between fish consumption and mortality, which might be explained by exposure to chemical contaminants. This study aims to explore the associations between fish consumption or omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) and mortality within the prospective E3N French cohort, and to investigate the role of dietary exposure to contaminants in these associations. In the E3N cohort composed of 72,585 women, we assessed fish consumption and n-3 PUFA intake through a food questionnaire sent in 1993. To estimate the dietary exposure to contaminants, we used the food contamination database of the second French total diet study. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between fish, lean fish, fatty fish, and n-3 PUFA intake, with the risk of all-cause or cause-specific mortality. During the follow-up (1993–2014), 6,441 deaths were recorded. A U-shaped association was observed between fish consumption and all-cause mortality (Poverall_association = 0.017). A similar association was observed with lean fish consumption, while the non-linear association between fatty fish consumption or n-3 PUFA intake and all-cause mortality did not reach statistical significance. A non-linear association was observed between fish consumption and lung cancer mortality (Poverall_association = 0.005). A positive and linear association was observed between fatty fish consumption or n-3 PUFA intake and breast cancer mortality (HR [CI95%]: 1.07 [1.01–1.15] and 1.08 [1.01–1.15]). Our results remained unchanged when further adjusting on dietary exposure to contaminants. Our results showed a U-shaped association between fish consumption and all-cause mortality and suggest a notable role of lean fish consumption in this association, but no role of dietary exposure to contaminants. Further studies are needed to better clarify this U-shaped association and the different impacts of fatty and lean fish consumption on health.

Summary: Background: Inflammation and immune dysregulation are hypothesized contributors to endometrial carcinogenesis; however, the precise underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Methods: We measured pre-diagnostically 152 plasma protein biomarkers in 624 endometrial cancer case-control pairs nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression, accounting for confounding and multiple comparisons. Proteins considered as associated with endometrial cancer risk were further tested in a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using summary data from the UK Biobank (n = 52,363) and the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (12,270 cases and 46,126 controls). Findings: In the EPIC nested case-control study, IL-6 [OR per NPX (doubling of concentration) = 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.57)], HGF [1.48 (1.06–2.07)], PIK3AP1 [1.22 (1.00–1.50)] and CLEC4G [1.52 (1.00–2.32)] were positively associated; HSD11B1 [0.67 (0.49–0.91)], SCF [0.68 (0.49–0.94)], and CCL25 [0.80 (0.65–0.99)] were inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk; all estimates had multiple comparisons adjusted P-value > 0.05. In complementary MR analysis, IL-6 [OR per inverse-rank normalized NPX = 1.19 (95% CI 1.04–1.36)] and HSD11B1 [0.91 (0.84–0.99)] were associated with endometrial cancer risk. Interpretation: Altered IL-6 signalling and reduced glucocorticoid activity via HSD11B1 might play important roles in endometrial carcinogenesis. Funding: Funding for IIG_FULL_2021_008 was obtained from Wereld Kanker Onderzoek Fonds (WKOF), as part of the World Cancer Research Fund International grant programme; Funding for INCA_15849 was obtained from Institut National du Cancer (INCa).

Abstract The individual results of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests measured after the first pandemic wave of 2020 cannot be directly interpreted as a probability of having been infected. Plus, these results are usually returned as a binary or ternary variable, relying on predefined cut-offs. We propose a Bayesian mixture model to estimate individual infection probabilities, based on 81,797 continuous anti-spike IgG tests from Euroimmun collected in France after the first wave. This approach used serological results as a continuous variable, and was therefore not based on diagnostic cut-offs. Cumulative incidence, which is necessary to compute infection probabilities, was estimated according to age and administrative region. In France, we found that a “negative” or a “positive” test, as classified by the manufacturer, could correspond to a probability of infection as high as 61.8% or as low as 67.7%, respectively. “Indeterminate” tests encompassed probabilities of infection ranging from 10.8 to 96.6%. Our model estimated tailored individual probabilities of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on age, region, and serological result. It can be applied in other contexts, if estimates of cumulative incidence are available.

Background: Human exposure to air pollution involves complex mixtures of multiple correlated air pollutants. To date, very few studies have assessed the combined effects of exposure to multiple air pollutants on breast cancer (BC) risk. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association between combined exposures to multiple air pollutants and breast cancer risk. Methods: The study was based on a case-control study nested within the French E3N cohort (5222 incident BC cases/5222 matched controls). For each woman, the average of the mean annual exposure to eight pollutants (benzo(a)oyrene, cadmium, dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB153), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone, particulate matter and fine particles (PMs)) was estimated from cohort inclusion in 1990 to the index date. We used the Bayesian Profile Regression (BPR) model, which groups individuals according to their exposure and risk levels, and assigns a risk to each cluster identified. The model was adjusted on a combination of matching variables and confounders to better consider the design of the nested case-control study. Odds ratios (OR) and their 95 % credible intervals (CrI) were estimated. Results: Among the 21 clusters identified, the cluster characterised by low exposures to all pollutants, except ozone, was taken as reference. A consistent increase in BC risk compared to the reference cluster was observed for 3 clusters: cluster 9 (OR=1.61; CrI=1.13,2.26), cluster 16 (OR=1.59; CrI=1.10,2.30) and cluster 15 (OR=1.38; CrI=1.00,1.88) characterised by high levels of NO2, PMs and PCB153. The other clusters showed no consistent association with BC. Discussion: This is the first study assessing the effect of exposure to a mixture of eight air pollutants on BC risk, using the BPR approach. Overall, results showed evidence of a positive joint effect of exposure to high levels to most pollutants, particularly high for NO2, PMs and PCB153, on the risk of BC.

Objective Screening high-risk individuals with low-dose CT reduces mortality from lung cancer, but many lung cancers occur in individuals who are not eligible for screening. Risk biomarkers may be useful to refine risk models and improve screening eligibility criteria. We evaluated if blood-based DNA methylation markers can improve a traditional lung cancer prediction model.Methods and analysis This study used four prospective cohorts with blood samples collected prior to lung cancer diagnosis. The study was restricted to participants with a history of smoking, and one control was individually matched to each lung cancer case using incidence density sampling by cohort, sex, date of blood collection, age and smoking status. To train a DNA methylation-based risk score, we used participants from Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study-Australia (n=648) and Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study-Sweden (n=380) based on five selected CpG sites. The risk discriminative performance of the methylation score was subsequently validated in participants from European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Italy (n=267) and Norwegian Women and Cancer-Norway (n=185) and compared with that of the questionnaire-based PLCOm2012 lung cancer risk model.Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the PLCOm2012 model in the validation studies was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75) compared with 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68 to 0.77) for the methylation score model (Pdifference=0.07). Incorporating the methylation score with the PLCOm2012 model did not improve the risk discrimination (AUC: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.77, Pdifference=0.73).Conclusions This study suggests that the methylation-based risk prediction score alone provides similar lung cancer risk-discriminatory performance as the questionnaire-based PLCOm2012 risk model.

Background Identifying factors that predict the course of persistent symptoms that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic is a public health issue. Modifiable factors could be targeted in therapeutic interventions.Objective This prospective study based on the population-based CONSTANCES cohort examined whether the psychological burden associated with incident persistent symptoms (ie, that first occurred from March 2020) would predict having ≥1 persistent symptom 6–10 months later.Methods A total of 8424 participants (mean age=54.6 years (SD=12.6), 57.2% women) having ≥1 incident persistent symptom at baseline (ie, between December 2020 and February 2021) were included. The psychological burden associated with these persistent symptoms was assessed with the Somatic Symptom Disorder-B Criteria Scale (SSD-12). The outcome was having ≥1 persistent symptom at follow-up. Adjusted binary logistic regression models examined the association between the SSD-12 score and the outcome.Findings At follow-up, 1124 participants (13.3%) still had ≥1 persistent symptom. The SSD-12 score at baseline was associated with persistent symptoms at follow-up in both participants with (OR (95% CI) for one IQR increase: 1.42 (1.09 to 1.84)) and without SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to baseline (1.39 (1.25 to 1.55)). Female gender, older age, poorer self-rated health and infection prior to baseline were also associated with persistent symptoms at follow-up.Conclusions The psychological burden associated with persistent symptoms at baseline predicted the presence of ≥1 persistent symptom at follow-up regardless of infection prior to baseline.Clinical implications Intervention studies should test whether reducing the psychological burden associated with persistent symptoms could improve the course of these symptoms.

Summary: Background: Altered lipid metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development. However, the role of specific lipid metabolites in colorectal cancer development is uncertain. Methods: In a case–control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined associations between pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of 97 lipid metabolites (acylcarnitines, glycerophospholipids and sphingolipids) and colorectal cancer risk. Circulating lipids were measured using targeted mass spectrometry in 1591 incident colorectal cancer cases (55% women) and 1591 matched controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between concentrations of individual lipid metabolites and metabolite patterns with colorectal cancer risk. Findings: Of the 97 assayed lipids, 24 were inversely associated (nominally p

Abstract Lockdown imposed in the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak represented a specific setting where activity was restricted but still possible. The aim was to investigate the cross-sectional associations between physical activity (PA) and SARS-CoV-2 infection in a French population-based cohort. Participants completed a PA questionnaire. PA was classified into: (i) total PA; (ii) aerobic PA by intensity; (iii) strengthening PA; (iv) PA by domain and type; and (vii) by location. Sedentary time was also recorded. Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was assessed. Multivariable logistic regression models controlling for sociodemographic, lifestyle, anthropometric data, health status, and adherence to recommended protective anti-SARS-CoV-2 behaviours were computed. From 22,165 participants included, 21,074 (95.1%) and 1091 (4.9%) had a negative and positive ELISA-S test result, respectively. Total PA, vigorous PA, leisure-time PA, household PA, outdoor PA and indoor PA were all associated with lower probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Observations made in such a setting shed light on PA possibilities in a context of restricted mobility, where the health benefits of PA should not be overlooked. Along with already well-established benefits of PA for non-communicable disease prevention, these findings provide additional evidence for policies promoting all types of PA as a lever for population health.

Abstract Background Taste or smell disorders have been reported as strongly associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. We aimed to identify subject characteristics, symptom associations, and antibody response intensity associated with taste or smell disorders. Methods We used data from SAPRIS, a study based on a consortium of five prospective cohorts gathering 279,478 participants in the French general population. In the analysis, we selected participants who were presumably infected by SARS-CoV-2 during the first epidemic wave. Results The analysis included 3,439 patients with a positive ELISA-Spike. Sex (OR = 1.28 [95% CI 1.05–1.58] for women), smoking (OR = 1.54 [95% CI 1.13–2.07]), consumption of more than 2 drinks of alcohol a day (OR = 1.37 [95% CI 1.06–1.76]) were associated with a higher probability of taste or smell disorders. The relationship between age and taste or smell disorders was non-linear. Serological titers were associated with taste or smell disorders: OR = 1.31 [95% CI 1.26–1.36], OR = 1.37 [95% CI 1.33–1.42] and OR = 1.34 [95% CI 1.29–1.39] for ELISA-Spike, ELISA-Nucleocapsid and seroneutralization, respectively. Among participants with taste or smell disorders, 90% reported a wide variety of other symptoms whereas 10% reported no other symptom or only rhinorrhea. Conclusions Among patients with a positive ELISA-Spike test, women, smokers and people drinking more than 2 drinks a day were more likely to develop taste or smell disorders. This symptom was strongly associated with an antibody response. The overwhelming majority of patients with taste or smell disorders experienced a wide variety of symptoms.

Abstract ABO blood type has been reported as a potential factor influencing SARS-CoV-2 infection, but so far mostly in studies that involved small samples, selected population and/or used PCR test results. In contrast our study aimed to assess the association between ABO blood types and SARS-CoV-2 infection using seroprevalence data (independent of whether or not individuals had symptoms or sought for testing) in a large population-based sample. Our study included 67,340 French participants to the SAPRIS-SERO multi-cohort project. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were detected using ELISA (targeting the proteins spike (S) and nucleocapsid (NP)) and seroneutralisation (SN) tests on dried blood spots collected in May–November 2020. Non-O individuals (and especially types A and AB) were more likely to bear anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (ELISA-S, 2964 positive cases: ORnon-Ovs.O = 1.09[1.01–1.17], ORAvs.O = 1.08[1.00–1.17]; ELISA-S/ELISA-NP/SN, 678 triple positive cases: ORnon-Ovs.O = 1.19 [1.02–1.39], ORAvs.O = 1.19[1.01–1.41], ORABvs.O = 1.43[1.01–2.03]). Hence, our results provided additional insights into the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 infection, highlighting a higher susceptibility of infection for individuals of blood types A and AB and a lesser risk for blood type O.

Abstract Background Amino acid metabolism is dysregulated in colorectal cancer patients; however, it is not clear whether pre-diagnostic levels of amino acids are associated with subsequent risk of colorectal cancer. We investigated circulating levels of amino acids in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and UK Biobank cohorts. Methods Concentrations of 13-21 amino acids were determined in baseline fasting plasma or serum samples in 654 incident colorectal cancer cases and 654 matched controls in EPIC. Amino acids associated with colorectal cancer risk following adjustment for the false discovery rate (FDR) were then tested for associations in the UK Biobank, for which measurements of 9 amino acids were available in 111,323 participants, of which 1221 were incident colorectal cancer cases. Results Histidine levels were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (odds ratio [OR] 0.80 per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69–0.92, FDR P-value=0.03) and in UK Biobank (HR 0.93 per SD, 95% CI 0.87–0.99, P-value=0.03). Glutamine levels were borderline inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (OR 0.85 per SD, 95% CI 0.75–0.97, FDR P-value=0.08) and similarly in UK Biobank (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89–1.01, P=0.09) In both cohorts, associations changed only minimally when cases diagnosed within 2 or 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Conclusions Higher circulating levels of histidine were associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer in two large prospective cohorts. Further research to ascertain the role of histidine metabolism and potentially that of glutamine in colorectal cancer development is warranted.

Lifestyle-related phenotypes have been shown to be heritable and associated with DNA methylation. We aimed to investigate whether genetic predisposition to tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and higher body mass index (BMI) moderates the effect of these phenotypes on blood DNA methylation. We calculated polygenic scores (PGS) to quantify genetic predisposition to these phenotypes using training (N = 7,431) and validation (N = 4,307) samples. Using paired genetic-methylation data (N = 4,307), gene–environment interactions (i.e., PGS × lifestyle) were assessed using linear mixed-effects models with outcomes: 1) methylation at sites found to be strongly associated with smoking (1,061 CpGs), alcohol consumption (459 CpGs), and BMI (85 CpGs) and 2) two epigenetic ageing measures, PhenoAge and GrimAge. In the validation sample, PGS explained ~1.4% (P = 1 × 10−14), ~0.6% (P = 2 × 10−7), and ~8.7% (P = 7 × 10−87) of variance in smoking initiation, alcohol consumption, and BMI, respectively. Nominally significant interaction effects (P

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies of associations between metabolites and cancer risk have typically focused on specific cancer types separately. Here, we designed a multivariate pan-cancer analysis to identify metabolites potentially associated with multiple cancer types, while also allowing the investigation of cancer type-specific associations. Methods We analysed targeted metabolomics data available for 5828 matched case-control pairs from cancer-specific case-control studies on breast, colorectal, endometrial, gallbladder, kidney, localized and advanced prostate cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. From pre-diagnostic blood levels of an initial set of 117 metabolites, 33 cluster representatives of strongly correlated metabolites and 17 single metabolites were derived by hierarchical clustering. The mutually adjusted associations of the resulting 50 metabolites with cancer risk were examined in penalized conditional logistic regression models adjusted for body mass index, using the data-shared lasso penalty. Results Out of the 50 studied metabolites, (i) six were inversely associated with the risk of most cancer types: glutamine, butyrylcarnitine, lysophosphatidylcholine a C18:2, and three clusters of phosphatidylcholines (PCs); (ii) three were positively associated with most cancer types: proline, decanoylcarnitine, and one cluster of PCs; and (iii) 10 were specifically associated with particular cancer types, including histidine that was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk and one cluster of sphingomyelins that was inversely associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and positively with endometrial cancer risk. Conclusions These results could provide novel insights for the identification of pathways for cancer development, in particular those shared across different cancer types.

Abstract Background DNA methylation in blood may reflect adverse exposures accumulated over the lifetime and could therefore provide potential improvements in the prediction of cancer risk. A substantial body of research has shown associations between epigenetic aging and risk of disease, including cancer. Here we aimed to study epigenetic measures of aging and lifestyle-related factors in association with risk of breast cancer. Methods Using data from four prospective case–control studies nested in three cohorts of European ancestry participants, including a total of 1,655 breast cancer cases, we calculated three methylation-based measures of lifestyle factors (body mass index [BMI], tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption) and seven measures of epigenetic aging (Horvath-based, Hannum-based, PhenoAge and GrimAge). All measures were regression-adjusted for their respective risk factors and expressed per standard deviation (SD). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using conditional or unconditional logistic regression and pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age at blood draw, time from blood sample to diagnosis, oestrogen receptor-positivity status and tumour stage. Results None of the measures of epigenetic aging were associated with risk of breast cancer in the pooled analysis: Horvath ‘age acceleration’ (AA): OR per SD = 1.02, 95%CI: 0.95–1.10; AA-Hannum: OR = 1.03, 95%CI:0.95–1.12; PhenoAge: OR = 1.01, 95%CI: 0.94–1.09 and GrimAge: OR = 1.03, 95%CI: 0.94–1.12, in models adjusting for white blood cell proportions, body mass index, smoking and alcohol consumption. The BMI-adjusted predictor of BMI was associated with breast cancer risk, OR per SD = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.01–1.17. The results for the alcohol and smoking methylation-based predictors were consistent with a null association. Risk did not appear to substantially vary by age at blood draw, time to diagnosis or tumour characteristics. Conclusion We found no evidence that methylation-based measures of aging, smoking or alcohol consumption were associated with risk of breast cancer. A methylation-based marker of BMI was associated with risk and may provide insights into the underlying associations between BMI and breast cancer.

Abstract Background The role of elevated pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations on mortality in individuals with colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. Methods We investigated the association between pre-diagnostic high-sensitivity CRP concentrations and CRP genetic variation associated with circulating CRP and CRC-specific and all-cause mortality based on data from 1,235 individuals with CRC within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Results During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 455 CRC-specific deaths were recorded, out of 590 deaths from all causes. Pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific (hazard ratio, HR highest versus lowest quintile 0.92, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66, 1.28) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68, 1.21). Genetic predisposition to higher CRP (weighted score based on alleles of four CRP SNPs associated with higher circulating CRP) was not significantly associated with CRC-specific mortality (HR per CRP-score unit 0.95, 95% CI 0.86, 1.05) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90, 1.07). Among four investigated CRP genetic variants, only SNP rs1205 was significantly associated with CRC-specific (comparing the CT and CC genotypes with TT genotype, HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35, 0.83 and HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38, 0.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40, 0.85 and 0.64, 95% CI 0.44, 0.92, respectively). Conclusions The results of this prospective cohort study do not support a role of pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations on mortality in individuals with CRC. The observed associations with rs1205 deserve further scientific attention.

Abstract Background Inflammation has been hypothesized to play a role in the development and progression of breast cancer and might differently impact breast cancer risk among pre and postmenopausal women. We performed a nested case-control study to examine whether pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of adiponectin, leptin, c-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ and 6 interleukins were associated with breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status. Methods Pre-diagnostic levels of inflammatory biomarkers were measured in plasma from 1558 case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer at blood collection, per one standard deviation increase in biomarker concentration. Results Cases were diagnosed at a mean age of 61.4 years on average 8.6 years after blood collection. No statistically significant association was observed between inflammatory markers and breast cancer risk overall. In premenopausal women, borderline significant inverse associations were observed for leptin, leptin-to-adiponectin ratio and CRP [OR= 0.89 (0.77–1.03), OR= 0.88 (0.76–1.01) and OR= 0.87 (0.75–1.01), respectively] while positive associations were observed among postmenopausal women [OR= 1.16 (1.05–1.29), OR= 1.11 (1.01–1.23), OR= 1.10 (0.99–1.22), respectively]. Adjustment for BMI strengthened the estimates in premenopausal women [leptin: OR = 0.83 (0.68–1.00), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 0.80 (0.66–0.97), CRP: OR = 0.85 (0.72–1.00)] but attenuated the estimates in postmenopausal women [leptin: OR = 1.09 (0.96–1.24), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 1.02 (0.89–1.16), CRP: OR = 1.04 (0.92–1.16)]. Conclusions Associations between CRP, leptin and leptin-to-adiponectin ratio with breast cancer risk may represent the dual effect of obesity by menopausal status although this deserves further investigation.

Abstract Background Brominated flame retardants (BFR) and per- and polyfluorinated alkylated substances (PFAS) are two groups of substances suspected to act as endocrine disruptors. Such substances could therefore be implicated in the occurrence of breast cancer, nevertheless, previous studies have led to inconstant results. Due to the large correlation between these substances, and the possibly non-linear effects they exert, evaluating their joint impact as mixtures on health remains challenging. This exploratory study aimed to generate hypotheses on the relationship between circulating levels of 7 BFR (6 polybrominated diphenyl ethers and 1 polybrominated biphenyls) and 11 PFAS and the risk of breast cancer in a case–control study nested in the E3N French prospective cohort by performing two methods: Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, and Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) models. Methods 194 post-menopausal breast cancer cases and 194 controls were included in the present study. Circulating levels of BFR and PFAS were measured by gas chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry and liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry, respectively. The first statistical approach was based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by logistic regression models that included the identified principal components as main exposure variables. The second approach used BKMR models with hierarchical variable selection, this latter being suitable for highly correlated exposures. Both approaches were also run separately for Estrogen Receptor positive (ER +) and Estrogen Receptor negative (ER-) breast cancer cases. Results PCA identified four principal components accounting for 67% of the total variance. Component 3 showed a marginal association with ER + breast cancer risk. No clear association between BFR and PFAS mixtures and breast cancer was identified using BKMR models, and the credible intervals obtained were very wide. Finally, the BKMR models suggested a negative cumulative effect of BFR and PFAS on ER- breast cancer risk, and a positive cumulative effect on ER + breast cancer risk. Conclusion Although globally no clear association was identified, both approaches suggested a differential effect of BFR and PFAS mixtures on ER + and ER- breast cancer risk. However, the results for ER- breast cancer should be interpreted carefully due to the small number of ER- cases included in the study. Further studies evaluating mixtures of substances on larger study populations are needed.

Abstract Background Metabolomics is a promising molecular tool for identifying novel etiological pathways leading to cancer. In an earlier prospective study among pre- and postmenopausal women not using exogenous hormones, we observed a higher risk of breast cancer associated with higher blood concentrations of one metabolite (acetylcarnitine) and a lower risk associated with higher blood concentrations of seven others (arginine, asparagine, phosphatidylcholines (PCs) aa C36:3, ae C34:2, ae C36:2, ae C36:3, and ae C38:2). Methods To identify determinants of these breast cancer-related metabolites, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis to identify their lifestyle and anthropometric correlates in 2358 women, who were previously included as controls in case-control studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort and not using exogenous hormones at blood collection. Associations of each metabolite concentration with 42 variables were assessed using linear regression models in a discovery set of 1572 participants. Significant associations were evaluated in a validation set (n = 786). Results For the metabolites previously associated with a lower risk of breast cancer, concentrations of PCs ae C34:2, C36:2, C36:3, and C38:2 were negatively associated with adiposity and positively associated with total and saturated fat intakes. PC ae C36:2 was also negatively associated with alcohol consumption and positively associated with two scores reflecting adherence to a healthy lifestyle. Asparagine concentration was negatively associated with adiposity. Arginine and PC aa C36:3 concentrations were not associated to any of the factors examined. For the metabolite previously associated with a higher risk of breast cancer, acetylcarnitine, a positive association with age was observed. Conclusions These associations may indicate possible mechanisms underlying associations between lifestyle and anthropometric factors, and risk of breast cancer. Further research is needed to identify potential non-lifestyle correlates of the metabolites investigated.

Ambient air pollution is an established risk factor for premature mortality from chronic cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic diseases, while evidence on neurodegenerative diseases and psychiatric disorders remains limited. We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide in seven European cohorts. Within the multicenter project ‘Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe’ (ELAPSE), we pooled data from seven European cohorts from six countries. Based on the residential addresses, annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), and 8 PM2.5 components were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide. Of 271,720 participants, 900 died from dementia, 241 from psychiatric disorders, and 164 from suicide, during a mean follow-up of 19.7 years. In fully adjusted models, we observed positive associations of NO2 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.38; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.13, 1.70 per 10 µg/m3), PM2.5 (HR = 1.29; 95 % CI: 0.98, 1.71 per 5 µg/m3), and BC (HR = 1.37; 95 % CI: 1.11, 1.69 per 0.5 × 10−5/m) with psychiatric disorders mortality, as well as with suicide (NO2: HR = 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.92, 1.38]; PM2.5: HR = 1.19 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.87]; BC: HR = 1.08 [95 % CI: 0.87, 1.35]), and no association with dementia mortality. We did not detect any positive associations of O3 and 8 PM2.5 components with any of the three mortality outcomes. Long-term exposure to NO2, PM2.5, and BC may lead to premature mortality from psychiatric disorders and suicide.

Abstract Background Nutritional factors are essential for the functioning of the immune system and could therefore play a role in COVID-19 but evidence is needed. Our objective was to study the associations between diet and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large population-based sample. Methods Our analyses were conducted in the French prospective NutriNet-Santé cohort study (2009–2020). Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was assessed by ELISA on dried blood spots. Dietary intakes were derived from repeated 24 h dietary records (at least 6) in the two years preceding the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in France (February 2020). Multi-adjusted logistic regression models were computed. Results A total of 7766 adults (70.3% women, mean age: 60.3 years) were included, among which 311 were positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Dietary intakes of vitamin C (OR for 1 SD=0.86 (0.75–0.98), P=0.02), vitamin B9 (OR=0.84 (0.72–0.98), P=0.02), vitamin K (OR=0.86 (0.74–0.99), P=0.04), fibers (OR=0.84 (0.72–0.98), P=0.02), and fruit and vegetables (OR=0.85 (0.74–0.97), P=0.02) were associated to a decreased probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection while dietary intakes of calcium (OR=1.16 (1.01–1.35), P=0.04) and dairy products (OR=1.19 (1.06–1.33), P=0.002) associated to increased odds. No association was detected with other food groups or nutrients or with the overall diet quality. Conclusions Higher dietary intakes of fruit and vegetables and, consistently, of vitamin C, folate, vitamin K and fibers were associated with a lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Beyond its established role in the prevention of non-communicable diseases, diet could therefore also contribute to prevent some infectious diseases such as COVID-19.

Abstract Molecular studies suggest that cadmium due to its estrogenic properties, might play a role in breast cancer (BC) progression. However epidemiological evidence is limited. This study explored the association between long-term exposure to airborne cadmium and risk of BC by stage, grade of differentiation, and histological types at diagnosis. A nested case–control study of 4401 cases and 4401 matched controls was conducted within the French E3N cohort. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based metric demonstrated to reliably characterize long-term environmental exposures was employed to evaluate airborne exposure to cadmium. Multivariable adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models. There was no relationship between cadmium exposure and stage of BC. Also, no association between cadmium exposure and grade of differentiation of BC was observed. However, further analyses by histological type suggested a positive association between cadmium and risk of invasive tubular carcinoma (ITC) BC [ORQ5 vs Q1 = 3.4 (95% CI 1.1–10.7)]. The restricted cubic spline assessment suggested a dose–response relationship between cadmium and ITC BC subtype. Our results do not support the hypothesis that airborne cadmium exposure may play a role in advanced BC risk, but suggest that cadmium may be associated with an increased risk of ITC.

Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals, like Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), is suspected of playing a role in the occurrence of breast cancer. Moreover, there is growing evidence that food chemical contaminants, especially lipophilic ones such as PBDEs, could interact with different components of the diet. The objective of the present study was to assess the association between dietary intake of PBDEs and breast cancer risk in the French E3N cohort study, and to investigate the potential modification of this association by vegetable oil consumption.The study included 67 879 women. Intakes of eight PBDEs were estimated using food consumption data from a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire, and food contamination levels measured by the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) for the association between total PBDEs dietary intake and breast cancer risk. Interaction measures for vegetable oil consumption were estimated on both additive and multiplicative scales.The women were followed for a maximum of 21.4 years, and 5 686 developed an incident breast cancer. A positive linear trend was highlighted between dietary intake of PBDEs in quintile groups and breast cancer risk, borderline with statistical significance (p-trend = 0.06, HRQ5vsQ1 and 95% CI: 1.09 [0.99;1.20]). Interaction measures for vegetable oil consumption were significant in both additive and multiplicative scales. Higher effect sizes of the association were highlighted in high consumers of vegetable oil, i.e. ≥4.6 g/day (HRQ5vsQ1 and 95% CI: 1.23 [1.08; 1.40]), and almost no effect were found in low consumers (HRQ5vsQ1 and 95% CI: 0.97 [0.86; 1.10]).Highlighting such interactions between nutrients and chemicals is crucial to develop efficient dietary recommendations to limit the negative health effects associated with exposure to food chemical contaminants.

Abstract Background Glucocorticoids could theoretically decrease breast cancer risk through their anti-inflammatory effects or increase risk through immunosuppression. However, epidemiological evidence is limited regarding the associations between glucocorticoid use and breast cancer risk. Methods We investigated the association between systemic glucocorticoid use and breast cancer incidence in the E3N cohort, which includes 98,995 women with information on various characteristics collected from repeated questionnaires complemented with drug reimbursement data available from 2004. Women with at least two reimbursements of systemic glucocorticoids in any previous 3-month period since January 1, 2004, were defined as exposed. We considered exposure as a time-varying parameter, and we used multivariable Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of breast cancer. We performed a competing risk analysis using a cause-specific hazard approach to study the heterogeneity by tumour subtype/stage/grade. Results Among 62,512 postmenopausal women (median age at inclusion of 63 years old), 2864 developed breast cancer during a median follow-up of 9 years (between years 2004 and 2014). Compared with non-exposure, glucocorticoid exposure was not associated with overall breast cancer risk [HR = 0.94 (0.85–1.05)]; however, it was associated with a higher risk of in situ breast cancer and a lower risk of invasive breast cancer [HR insitu = 1.34 (1.01–1.78); HRinvasive = 0.86 (0.76–0.97); P homogeneity = 0.01]. Regarding the risk of invasive breast cancer, glucocorticoid exposure was inversely associated with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer [HRER+ = 0.82 (0.72–0.94); HRER− = 1.21 (0.88–1.66); P homogeneity = 0.03]; it was also inversely associated with the risk of stage 1 or stage 2 tumours but positively associated with the risk of stage 3/4 breast cancers [HRstage1 = 0.87 (0.75–1.01); HRstage2 = 0.67 (0.52–0.86); HRstage3/4 = 1.49 (1.02–2.20); P homogeneity = 0.01]. Conclusion This study suggests that the association between systemic glucocorticoid use and breast cancer risk may differ by tumour subtype and stage.

Background: The majority of studies have shown higher greenness exposure associated with reduced mortality risks, but few controlled for spatially correlated air pollution and traffic noise exposures. We aim to address this research gap in the ELAPSE pooled cohort. Methods: Mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in a 300-m grid cell and 1-km radius were assigned to participants’ baseline home addresses as a measure of surrounding greenness exposure. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association of NDVI exposure with natural-cause and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for a number of potential confounders including socioeconomic status and lifestyle factors at individual and area-levels. We further assessed the associations between greenness exposure and mortality after adjusting for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and road traffic noise. Results: The pooled study population comprised 327,388 individuals who experienced 47,179 natural-cause deaths during 6,374,370 person-years of follow-up. The mean NDVI in the pooled cohort was 0.33 (SD 0.1) and 0.34 (SD 0.1) in the 300-m grid and 1-km buffer. In the main fully adjusted model, 0.1 unit increment of NDVI inside 300-m grid was associated with 5% lower risk of natural-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.95 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.96)). The associations attenuated after adjustment for air pollution [HR (95% CI): 0.97 (0.96, 0.98) adjusted for PM2.5; 0.98 (0.96, 0.99) adjusted for NO2]. Additional adjustment for traffic noise hardly affected the associations. Consistent results were observed for NDVI within 1-km buffer. After adjustment for air pollution, NDVI was inversely associated with diabetes, respiratory and lung cancer mortality, yet with wider 95% confidence intervals. No association with cardiovascular mortality was found. Conclusions: We found a significant inverse association between surrounding greenness and natural-cause mortality, which remained after adjusting for spatially correlated air pollution and traffic noise.

Summary: Background: Many patients report persistent symptoms after COVID-19. Our aim was to determine whether some of these symptoms were more associated with past SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to other conditions. Methods: This prospective survey was nested in CONSTANCES, a randomly selected French population-based cohort, started in 2012. All participants being followed-up by internet completed 2 questionnaires during the first wave of the pandemic focusing on the acute symptoms of their COVID-19-like illness. Serological tests for SARS-CoV-2 were then performed (May-Nov 2020). Between December 2020 and January 2021, participants completed a third questionnaire about symptoms that had lasted more than 2 months. Participants were classified into four groups according to both European Center for Diseases Control (ECDC) criteria for COVID-19 (ECDC+ or ECDC-) and serological SARS-CoV-2 test results (Sero+ or Sero-). To compare the risk of each persistent symptom among the groups, logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, educational level, comorbidities, and the number of acute symptoms declared during the first wave of the epidemic. A mediation analysis was performed to estimate the direct effect of the infection on persistent symptoms and its indirect effect via the initial clinical presentation. Findings: The analysis was performed in 25,910 participants. There was a higher risk of persistent dysgeusia/anosmia, dyspnea and asthenia in the ECDC+/Sero+ group than in the ECDC+/Sero- group (OR: 6.83 [4.47–10.42], 1.69 [1.07–2.6] and 1.48 [1.05–2.07], respectively). Abdominal pain, sensory symptoms or sleep disorders were at lower risk in the ECDC+/Sero+ group than in the ECDC+/Sero- group (0.51 [0.24–0.96], 0.40 [0.16–0.85], and 0.69 [0.49–0.95], respectively). The mediation analysis revealed that the association of the serological test results with each symptom was mainly mediated by ECDC symptoms (proportion mediated range 50–107%). Conclusion: A greater risk of persistent dysgeusia/anosmia, dyspnea and asthenia was observed in SARS-CoV-2 infected people. The initial clinical presentation substantially drives the association of positive serological test results with persistent symptoms. Funding: French National Research Agency

Abstract Background Our main objectives were to estimate the incidence of illnesses presumably caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection during the lockdown period and to identify the associated risk factors. Methods Participants from 3 adult cohorts in the general population in France were invited to participate in a survey on COVID-19. The main outcome was COVID-19-Like Symptoms (CLS), defined as a sudden onset of cough, fever, dyspnea, ageusia and/or anosmia, that lasted more than 3 days and occurred during the 17 days before the survey. We used delayed-entry Cox models to identify associated factors. Results Between April 2, 2020 and May 12, 2020, 279,478 participants were invited, 116,903 validated the questionnaire and 106,848 were included in the analysis. Three thousand thirty-five cases of CLS were reported during 62,099 person-months of follow-up. The cumulative incidences of CLS were 6.2% (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI): 5.7%; 6.6%) on day 15 and 8.8% (95%CI 8.3%; 9.2%) on day 45 of lockdown. The risk of CLS was lower in older age groups and higher in French regions with a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, in participants living in cities > 100,000 inhabitants (vs rural areas), when at least one child or adolescent was living in the same household, in overweight or obese people, and in people with chronic respiratory diseases, anxiety or depression or chronic diseases other than diabetes, cancer, hypertension or cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion The incidence of CLS in the general population remained high during the first 2 weeks of lockdown, and decreased significantly thereafter. Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors were identified.

Abstract Background Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. Methods The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992–2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. Results The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell’s C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264–0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084–0.575)). Conclusions LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.

Abstract Background Although anti-inflammatory agents could theoretically have anticancer properties, results from cohort studies on nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and breast cancer (BC) risk are inconsistent. Methods We investigated the association between NSAID use and BC incidence in the French E3N prospective cohort, which includes 98,995 women born between 1925 and 1950 and insured by a health insurance plan that covers mostly teachers. Self-reported information on lifestyle and medical history has been collected biennially by questionnaires and matched with data from a drug reimbursement database covering the period 2004–2014. Women who self-reported current NSAID use in the 2000 or 2002 questionnaires or with at least two reimbursements in any previous 3-month period were defined as exposed to NSAIDs. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of NSAID use with BC risk. Results In the current analysis, 62,512 postmenopausal women were followed between 2004 and 2014 (9 years on average, starting at a mean age of 63 years; 2864 incident BC). In multivariable models, there was no statistically significant association between NSAID use and BC risk [HR = 1.00 (0.92–1.08), compared with non-exposed women]. The NSAID-BC associations did not differ by NSAID types, BC subtypes, risk factors, and comorbidities, nor by duration and dose of use. However, a statistically significant interaction was observed by proton pump inhibitor (PPI) drug use (P interaction = 0.01) whereby a decreased risk of BC with NSAID use was only observed among women who also used PPI before. Conclusion Only women who used NSAIDs after having used PPI had a lower risk of BC. This result is novel and requires replication in other studies.

Abstract Background Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex. Methods In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P

Abstract Background Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) are lipophilic substances with endocrine-disrupting properties. To date, only few investigations, mainly retrospective case-control studies, have explored the link between internal levels of BFRs and the risk of breast cancer, leading to conflicting results. We investigated the associations between plasma concentrations of two main groups of BFRs, PBDEs (pentabromodiphenyl ethers) and PBBs (polybrominated biphenyls), and the risk of breast cancer in a nested case-control study. Methods A total of 197 incident breast cancer cases and 197 controls with a blood sample collected in 1994–1999 were included. Plasma levels of PBDE congeners (BDE-28, BDE-47, BDE-99, BDE-100, BDE153, BDE-154) and of PBB-153 were measured by gas chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry. Conditional logistic regression models, adjusted for potential confounders, were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Women were aged 56 years on average at blood draw. All cases, except for one, were diagnosed after menopause, with an average age at diagnosis of 68 years. Overall, we found no evidence of an association between plasma levels of PBDEs and PBB-153 and postmenopausal breast cancer risk (log-concentrations of BFRs yielding non-statistically significant ORs of 0.87 to 1.07). The analysis showed a non-linear inverse association for BDE-100 and BDE-153 and postmenopausal breast cancer risk; nevertheless, these findings were statistically significant only when the exposure was modeled as ng/L plasma (third vs. first quintile: OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.19–0.93 and OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.18–0.98, respectively) and not when modeled as ng/gr of lipids (OR = 0.58, 95%CI = 0.27–1.25 and OR = 0.53, 95%CI = 0.25–1.17). These results were unchanged in stratified analyses by tumor hormone receptor expression or body mass index. Conclusions Our results suggest no clear association between internal levels of PBDEs and PBB-153 and the risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. However, these findings need to be carefully interpreted, taking into account limitations due to the limited number of women included in the study, the lack of information concerning genetic susceptibility of cases, and the unavailability of exposure assessment during critical windows of susceptibility for breast cancer. More studies are warranted to further investigate the relationships between PBDE and PBB exposure and breast cancer risk.

We conducted a genome-wide association study of blood DNA methylation and smoking, attempted replication of previously discovered associations, and assessed the reversibility of smoking-associated methylation changes. DNA methylation was measured in baseline peripheral blood samples for 5,044 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. For 1,032 participants, these measures were repeated using blood samples collected at follow-up, a median of 11 years later. A cross-sectional analysis of the association between smoking and DNA methylation and a longitudinal analysis of changes in smoking status and changes in DNA methylation were conducted. We used our cross-sectional analysis to replicate previously reported associations for current (N = 3,327) and former (N = 172) smoking. A comprehensive smoking index accounting for the biological half-life of smoking compounds and several aspects of smoking history was constructed to assess the reversibility of smoking-induced methylation changes. This measure of lifetime exposure to smoking allowed us to detect more associations than comparing current with never smokers. We identified 4,496 cross-sectional associations at P

Abstract Background Although lifestyle factors have been studied in relation to individual non-communicable diseases (NCDs), their association with development of a subsequent NCD, defined as multimorbidity, has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between five lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 291,778 participants (64% women) from seven European countries, mostly aged 43 to 58 years and free of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at recruitment, were included. Incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases was defined as developing subsequently two diseases including first cancer at any site, CVD, and T2D in an individual. Multi-state modelling based on Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of developing cancer, CVD, or T2D, and subsequent transitions to multimorbidity, in relation to body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and their combination as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score. Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) were estimated to compute 10-year absolute risks for transitions from healthy to cancer at any site, CVD (both fatal and non-fatal), or T2D, and to subsequent multimorbidity after each of the three NCDs. Results During a median follow-up of 11 years, 1910 men and 1334 women developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. A higher HLI, reflecting healthy lifestyles, was strongly inversely associated with multimorbidity, with hazard ratios per 3-unit increment of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.81), 0.84 (0.79 to 0.90), and 0.82 (0.77 to 0.88) after cancer, CVD, and T2D, respectively. After T2D, the 10-year absolute risks of multimorbidity were 40% and 25% for men and women, respectively, with unhealthy lifestyle, and 30% and 18% for men and women with healthy lifestyles. Conclusion Pre-diagnostic healthy lifestyle behaviours were strongly inversely associated with the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases, and with the prognosis of these diseases by reducing risk of multimorbidity.

Physical activity has been linked to lower risks of colorectal and breast cancer. Here, the authors present a Mendelian randomisation analysis supporting a potentially causal relationship between higher physical activity levels and lower risks of breast cancer and colorectal cancer.

Summary: Background: Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with premature mortality, but associations at concentrations lower than current annual limit values are uncertain. We analysed associations between low-level air pollution and mortality within the multicentre study Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE). Methods: In this multicentre longitudinal study, we analysed seven population-based cohorts of adults (age ≥30 years) within ELAPSE, from Belgium, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, Norway, Rome (Italy), and Switzerland (enrolled in 2000–11; follow-up until 2011–17). Mortality registries were used to extract the underlying cause of death for deceased individuals. Annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon, and tropospheric warm-season ozone (O3) from Europe-wide land use regression models at 100 m spatial resolution were assigned to baseline residential addresses. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for area-level and individual-level covariates to evaluate associations with non-accidental mortality, as the main outcome, and with cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality. Subset analyses of participants living at low pollutant concentrations (as per predefined values) and natural splines were used to investigate the concentration-response function. Cohort-specific effect estimates were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings: We analysed 28 153 138 participants contributing 257 859 621 person-years of observation, during which 3 593 741 deaths from non-accidental causes occurred. We found significant positive associations between non-accidental mortality and PM2·5, NO2, and black carbon, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·053 (95% CI 1·021–1·085) per 5 μg/m3 increment in PM2·5, 1·044 (1·019–1·069) per 10 μg/m3 NO2, and 1·039 (1·018–1·059) per 0·5 × 10−5/m black carbon. Associations with PM2·5, NO2, and black carbon were slightly weaker for cardiovascular mortality, similar for non-malignant respiratory mortality, and stronger for lung cancer mortality. Warm-season O3 was negatively associated with both non-accidental and cause-specific mortality. Associations were stronger at low concentrations: HRs for non-accidental mortality at concentrations lower than the WHO 2005 air quality guideline values for PM2·5 (10 μg/m3) and NO2 (40 μg/m3) were 1·078 (1·046–1·111) per 5 μg/m3 PM2·5 and 1·049 (1·024–1·075) per 10 μg/m3 NO2. Similarly, the association between black carbon and non-accidental mortality was highest at low concentrations, with a HR of 1·061 (1·032–1·092) for exposure lower than 1·5× 10−5/m, and 1·081 (0·966–1·210) for exposure lower than 1·0× 10−5/m. Interpretation: Long-term exposure to concentrations of PM2·5 and NO2 lower than current annual limit values was associated with non-accidental, cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality in seven large European cohorts. Continuing research on the effects of low concentrations of air pollutants is expected to further inform the process of setting air quality standards in Europe and other global regions. Funding: Health Effects Institute.

BackgroundExcess bodyweight and related metabolic perturbations have been implicated in kidney cancer aetiology, but the specific molecular mechanisms underlying these relationships are poorly understood. In this study, we sought to identify circulating metabolites that predispose kidney cancer and to evaluate the extent to which they are influenced by body mass index (BMI).Methods and findingsWe assessed the association between circulating levels of 1,416 metabolites and incident kidney cancer using pre-diagnostic blood samples from up to 1,305 kidney cancer case-control pairs from 5 prospective cohort studies. Cases were diagnosed on average 8 years after blood collection. We found 25 metabolites robustly associated with kidney cancer risk. In particular, 14 glycerophospholipids (GPLs) were inversely associated with risk, including 8 phosphatidylcholines (PCs) and 2 plasmalogens. The PC with the strongest association was PC ae C34:3 with an odds ratio (OR) for 1 standard deviation (SD) increment of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.83, p = 2.6 × 10-8). In contrast, 4 amino acids, including glutamate (OR for 1 SD = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.60, p = 1.6 × 10-5), were positively associated with risk. Adjusting for BMI partly attenuated the risk association for some-but not all-metabolites, whereas other known risk factors of kidney cancer, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, had minimal impact on the observed associations. A mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of the influence of BMI on the blood metabolome highlighted that some metabolites associated with kidney cancer risk are influenced by BMI. Specifically, elevated BMI appeared to decrease levels of several GPLs that were also found inversely associated with kidney cancer risk (e.g., -0.17 SD change [ßBMI] in 1-(1-enyl-palmitoyl)-2-linoleoyl-GPC (P-16:0/18:2) levels per SD change in BMI, p = 3.4 × 10-5). BMI was also associated with increased levels of glutamate (ßBMI: 0.12, p = 1.5 × 10-3). While our results were robust across the participating studies, they were limited to study participants of European descent, and it will, therefore, be important to evaluate if our findings can be generalised to populations with different genetic backgrounds.ConclusionsThis study suggests a potentially important role of the blood metabolome in kidney cancer aetiology by highlighting a wide range of metabolites associated with the risk of developing kidney cancer and the extent to which changes in levels of these metabolites are driven by BMI-the principal modifiable risk factor of kidney cancer.

Summary: Background: Regional monitoring of the proportion of the population who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 is important to guide local management of the epidemic, but is difficult in the absence of regular nationwide serosurveys. We aimed to estimate in near real time the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a method to reconstruct the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of infections being detected, using the joint analysis of age-stratified seroprevalence, hospitalisation, and case data, with deconvolution methods. We developed our method on a dataset consisting of seroprevalence estimates from 9782 participants (aged ≥20 years) in the two worst affected regions of France in May, 2020, and applied our approach to the 13 French metropolitan regions over the period March, 2020, to January, 2021. We validated our method externally using data from a national seroprevalence study done between May and June, 2020. Findings: We estimate that 5·7% (95% CI 5·1–6·4) of adults in metropolitan France had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by May 11, 2020. This proportion remained stable until August, 2020, and increased to 14·9% (13·2–16·9) by Jan 15, 2021. With 26·5% (23·4–29·8) of adult residents having been infected in Île-de-France (Paris region) compared with 5·1% (4·5–5·8) in Brittany by January, 2021, regional variations remained large (coefficient of variation [CV] 0·50) although less so than in May, 2020 (CV 0·74). The proportion infected was twice as high (20·4%, 15·6–26·3) in 20–49-year-olds than in individuals aged 50 years or older (9·7%, 6·9–14·1). 40·2% (34·3–46·3) of infections in adults were detected in June to August, 2020, compared with 49·3% (42·9–55·9) in November, 2020, to January, 2021. Our regional estimates of seroprevalence were strongly correlated with the external validation dataset (coefficient of correlation 0·89). Interpretation: Our simple approach to estimate the proportion of adults that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 can help to characterise the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemic dynamics, and the performance of surveillance in different regions. Funding: EU RECOVER, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (Inserm).

Abstract Background Metabolomics is a promising molecular tool to identify novel etiologic pathways leading to cancer. Using a targeted approach, we prospectively investigated the associations between metabolite concentrations in plasma and breast cancer risk. Methods A nested case-control study was established within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort, which included 1624 first primary incident invasive breast cancer cases (with known estrogen and progesterone receptor and HER2 status) and 1624 matched controls. Metabolites (n = 127, acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, hexose, sphingolipids) were measured by mass spectrometry in pre-diagnostic plasma samples and tested for associations with breast cancer incidence using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Results Among women not using hormones at baseline (n = 2248), and after control for multiple tests, concentrations of arginine (odds ratio [OR] per SD = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70–0.90), asparagine (OR = 0.83 (0.74–0.92)), and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) ae C36:3 (OR = 0.83 (0.76–0.90)), aa C36:3 (OR = 0.84 (0.77–0.93)), ae C34:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78–0.94)), ae C36:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78–0.88)), and ae C38:2 (OR = 0.84 (0.76–0.93)) were inversely associated with breast cancer risk, while the acylcarnitine C2 (OR = 1.23 (1.11–1.35)) was positively associated with disease risk. In the overall population, C2 (OR = 1.15 (1.06–1.24)) and PC ae C36:3 (OR = 0.88 (0.82–0.95)) were associated with risk of breast cancer, and these relationships did not differ by breast cancer subtype, age at diagnosis, fasting status, menopausal status, or adiposity. Conclusions These findings point to potentially novel pathways and biomarkers of breast cancer development. Results warrant replication in other epidemiological studies.

Abstract Background Environmental and genetic factors play an important role in the etiology of breast cancer. Several small blood-based DNA methylation studies have reported risk associations with methylation at individual CpGs and average methylation levels; however, these findings require validation in larger prospective cohort studies. To investigate the role of blood DNA methylation on breast cancer risk, we conducted a meta-analysis of four prospective cohort studies, including a total of 1663 incident cases and 1885 controls, the largest study of blood DNA methylation and breast cancer risk to date. Methods We assessed associations with methylation at 365,145 CpGs present in the HumanMethylation450 (HM450K) Beadchip, after excluding CpGs that did not pass quality controls in all studies. Each of the four cohorts estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between each individual CpG and breast cancer risk. In addition, each study assessed the association between average methylation measures and breast cancer risk, adjusted and unadjusted for cell-type composition. Study-specific ORs were combined using fixed-effect meta-analysis with inverse variance weights. Stratified analyses were conducted by age at diagnosis ( 10 years). The false discovery rate (q value) was used to account for multiple testing. Results The average age at blood draw ranged from 52.2 to 62.2 years across the four cohorts. Median follow-up time ranged from 6.6 to 8.4 years. The methylation measured at individual CpGs was not associated with breast cancer risk (q value > 0.59). In addition, higher average methylation level was not associated with risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.85, 1.05; P = 0.26; P for study heterogeneity = 0.86). We found no evidence of modification of this association by age at diagnosis (P = 0.17), ER status (P = 0.88), time since blood collection (P = 0.98), or CpG location (P = 0.98). Conclusions Our data indicate that DNA methylation measured in the blood prior to breast cancer diagnosis in predominantly postmenopausal women is unlikely to be associated with substantial breast cancer risk on the HM450K array. Larger studies or with greater methylation coverage are needed to determine if associations exist between blood DNA methylation and breast cancer risk.

Background: Dioxins, Group 1 carcinogens, are emitted by industrial chlorinated combustion processes and suspected to increase breast cancer risk through receptor-mediated pathways. Objectives: We estimated breast cancer risk associated with airborne dioxin exposure, using geographic information system (GIS) methods and historical exposure data. Methods: We designed a case-control study (429 breast cancer cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2008, matched to 716 controls) nested within the E3N (Etude Epidémiologique auprès de femmes de la Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale) cohort. Airborne dioxin exposure was assessed using a GIS-based metric including participants' residential history, technical characteristics of 222 dioxin sources, residential proximity to dioxin sources, exposure duration and wind direction. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) associated with quintiles of cumulative exposure were estimated using multivariate logistic regression models. Results: We observed no increased risk of breast cancer for higher dioxin exposure levels overall and according to hormone-receptor status. We however observed a statistically significant OR for Q2 versus Q1 overall (1.612, 95% CI: 1.042–2.493) and for estrogen-receptor (ER) positive breast cancer (1.843, 95% CI: 1.033–3.292). Conclusions: Overall, as well as according to hormone-receptor status, no increased risk was observed for higher airborne dioxin exposure. The increased risk for low exposure levels might be compatible with non-monotonic dose-response relationship. Confirmation of our findings is required. Our GIS-based metric may provide an alternative in absence of ambient dioxin monitoring and may allow assessing exposure to other pollutants. Keywords: Breast cancer, Endocrine disruptors, Dioxins, Geographic information system, Tumor receptor

Introduction: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing worldwide. Recent studies have suggested that environmental factors, such as exposure to brominated flame retardants (BFRs), could play a role in the epidemic of T2D. The aim of this study was to analyze the association between the dietary exposure to BFRs (Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and Polybromodiphenylether (PBDE)) and T2D risk in the E3N prospective cohort of French women. Research design and methods: Overall, 71,415 women followed for 19 years were included in the study. We performed Cox regression models to analyze the association between dietary exposure to BFRs and T2D risk. Results: Overall 71,415 women were included and 3667 (5.13%) developed a T2D during follow-up. The mean dietary exposure to HBCD and to PBDE was 0.22 ng/kg body weight (BW)/day and 1.21 ng/kg bw/day, respectively. There was a positive linear association between dietary exposure to HBCD and T2D risk starting from the 2nd quintile group (HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.06–1.30) to the 5th quintile group (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.29–1.67) when compared to the 1st quintile group. We also found positive although non-linear associations between dietary exposure to PBDE and T2D risk, with an increased HR only for the 2nd and 4th vs. 1st quintile groups (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02–1.24, and HR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.08–1.34, respectively). Conclusion: The findings suggest an association between dietary exposure to BFRs and T2D risk, highlighting the importance of further investigating this association the long-term health effects of endocrine disruptors in the general population. Additional studies are needed to reproduce these findings in other populations and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms. Keywords: Dietary exposure, Brominated flame retardants, Organic persistent pollutants, Endocrine disruptors, Types 2 diabetes, Metabolic disease

Abstract Background Dioxins are environmental and persistent organic carcinogens with endocrine disrupting properties. A positive association with several cancers, including risk of breast cancer has been suggested. Objectives This study aimed to develop and assess performances of an exposure metric based on a Geographic Information System (GIS) through comparison with a validated dispersion model to estimate historical industrial dioxin exposure for its use in a case-control study nested within a prospective cohort. Methods Industrial dioxin sources were inventoried over the whole French territory (n > 2500) and annual average releases were estimated between 1990 and 2008. In three selected areas (rural, urban and urban-costal), dioxin dispersion was modelled using SIRANE, an urban Gaussian model and exposure of the French E3N cohort participants was estimated. The GIS-based metric was developed, calibrated and compared to SIRANE results using a set of parameters (local meteorological data, characteristics of industrial sources, e.g. emission intensity and stack height), by calculating weighted kappa statistics (wκ) and coefficient of determination (R2). Furthermore, as performance evaluation, the final GIS-based metric was tested to assess atmospheric exposure to cadmium. Results The concordance between the GIS-based metric and the dispersion model for dioxin exposure estimate was strong (wκ median = 0.78 (1st quintile = 0.72, 3rd quintile =0.82) and R2 median = 0.82 (1st quintile = 0.71, 3rd quintile = 0.87)). We observed similar performance for cadmium. Conclusions Our study demonstrated the ability of the GIS-based metric to reliably characterize long-term environmental dioxin and cadmium exposures as well as the pertinence of using dispersion modelling to construct and calibrate the GIS-based metric.

Background: Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is an endocrine-disrupting pollutant formed during incomplete combustion of organic materials. It has been recognized as a reproductive and developmental toxicant, however epidemiological evidence of the long-term effect of ambient air BaP on breast cancer (BC) is limited. Thus we evaluated associations between ambient air BaP exposure and risk of BC, overall and according to menopausal status and molecular subtypes (estrogen receptor negative/positive (ER−/ER+) and progesterone receptor negative/positive (PR−/PR+)), stage and grade of differentiation of BC in the French E3N cohort study. Methods: Within a nested case-control study of 5222 incident BC cases and 5222 matched controls, annual BaP exposure was estimated using a chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE) and was assigned to the geocoded residential addresses of participants for each year during the 1990–2011 follow-up period. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Overall, cumulative airborne BaP exposure was significantly associated with the overall risk of BC, for each 1 interquartile range (IQR) increase in the concentration levels of BaP (1.42 ng/m3), the OR = 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04–1.27). However, by menopausal status, the significant positive association remained only in women who underwent menopausal transition (i.e. premenopausal women at inclusion who became postmenopausal at diagnosis), OR per 1 IQR = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.03–1.40). By hormone receptor status, positive associations were observed for ER+, PR + and ER + PR + BC, with ORs = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.04–1.32), 1.16 (95% CI: 1.01–1.33), and 1.17 (95% CI: 1.01–1.36) per 1 IQR, respectively. There was also a borderline positive association between BaP and grade 3 BC (OR per 1 IQR = 1.15 (95% CI: 0.99–1.34). Conclusions: We provide evidence of increased risk of BC associated with cumulative BaP exposure, which varied according to menopausal status, hormone receptor status, and grade of differentiation of BC. Our results add further epidemiological evidence to the previous experimental studies suggesting the adverse effects of BaP.

Background: We evaluated methods for the analysis of multi-level survival data using a pooled dataset of 14 cohorts participating in the ELAPSE project investigating associations between residential exposure to low levels of air pollution (PM2.5 and NO2) and health (natural-cause mortality and cerebrovascular, coronary and lung cancer incidence). Methods: We applied five approaches in a multivariable Cox model to account for the first level of clustering corresponding to cohort specification: (1) not accounting for the cohort or using (2) indicator variables, (3) strata, (4) a frailty term in frailty Cox models, (5) a random intercept under a mixed Cox, for cohort identification. We accounted for the second level of clustering due to common characteristics in the residential area by (1) a random intercept per small area or (2) applying variance correction. We assessed the stratified, frailty and mixed Cox approach through simulations under different scenarios for heterogeneity in the underlying hazards and the air pollution effects. Results: Effect estimates were stable under approaches used to adjust for cohort but substantially differed when no adjustment was applied. Further adjustment for the small area grouping increased the effect estimates’ standard errors. Simulations confirmed identical results between the stratified and frailty models. In ELAPSE we selected a stratified multivariable Cox model to account for between-cohort heterogeneity without adjustment for small area level, due to the small number of subjects and events in the latter. Conclusions: Our study supports the need to account for between-cohort heterogeneity in multi-center collaborations using pooled individual level data.

Background/aim: Ambient air pollution has been associated with lung cancer, but the shape of the exposure-response function - especially at low exposure levels - is not well described. The aim of this study was to address the relationship between long-term low-level air pollution exposure and lung cancer incidence. Methods: The “Effects of Low-level Air Pollution: a Study in Europe” (ELAPSE) collaboration pools seven cohorts from across Europe. We developed hybrid models combining air pollution monitoring, land use data, satellite observations, and dispersion model estimates for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O3) to assign exposure to cohort participants’ residential addresses in 100 m by 100 m grids. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, calendar year, marital status, smoking, body mass index, employment status, and neighborhood-level socio-economic status). We fitted linear models, linear models in subsets, Shape-Constrained Health Impact Functions (SCHIF), and natural cubic spline models to assess the shape of the association between air pollution and lung cancer at concentrations below existing standards and guidelines. Results: The analyses included 307,550 cohort participants. During a mean follow-up of 18.1 years, 3956 incident lung cancer cases occurred. Median (Q1, Q3) annual (2010) exposure levels of NO2, PM2.5, BC and O3 (warm season) were 24.2 µg/m3 (19.5, 29.7), 15.4 µg/m3 (12.8, 17.3), 1.6 10−5m−1 (1.3, 1.8), and 86.6 µg/m3 (78.5, 92.9), respectively. We observed a higher risk for lung cancer with higher exposure to PM2.5 (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.23 per 5 µg/m3). This association was robust to adjustment for other pollutants. The SCHIF, spline and subset analyses suggested a linear or supra-linear association with no evidence of a threshold. In subset analyses, risk estimates were clearly elevated for the subset of subjects with exposure below the EU limit value of 25 µg/m3. We did not observe associations between NO2, BC or O3 and lung cancer incidence. Conclusions: Long-term ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with lung cancer incidence even at concentrations below current EU limit values and possibly WHO Air Quality Guidelines.