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The development of tourism in emerging countries is expected to be a major contributor to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions from tourism worldwide and also to question these countries’ mitig...

The rapid development of tourism in emerging countries is a major contributor to the sector’s growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An assessment of emissions produced by Brazilian tourists confi...

Highlights • Provision of pan-European climate change impact indicators for ski tourism. • The indicators account for natural snow cover processes, grooming and snowmaking. • The indicators are provided for NUTS-3 areas by elevation steps of 100 m. • The indicators combine reanalysis and regional climate model projections (1950–2100). • The indicators are available freely through the Copernicus C3S Climate Data Store., Ski tourism plays a major socio-economic role in the snowy and mountainous areas of Europe such as the Alps, the Pyrenees, Nordic Europe, Eastern Europe, Anatolia, etc. Past and future climate change has an impact on the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snowfall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the ”European Tourism” Sectoral Information System (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators (MTMSI) were co-designed with representatives of the ski tourism industry, including consulting companies. They were derived from statistically adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections (multiple GCM/RCM pairs for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the UERRA 5.5 km resolution surface reanalysis as a reference, used as input to the snow cover model Crocus, with and without accounting for snow management (grooming, snowmaking). Results are generated for 100 m elevation bands for NUTS-3 geographical areas spanning all areas relevant to ski tourism in Europe. This article introduces the underpinning elements for the generation of this product, and illustrates results at the pan-European scale as well as for smaller scale case studies. A dedicated visualization app allows for easy navigation into the multiple dimensions of this dataset, thereby fulfilling the needs of a broad range of users.

The next section gives a literature overview of the most popular modeling approaches and the respective modeling chains. It will show that the literature knows a wide range from rather simple functional forms relating climate impacts to economic models to sophisticated coupling of (bio-)physical, climate and eco-nomic models. The section will also establish the approach chosen in the Soclimpact Project. Section 3 then turns to the development of a template for data exchange. Starting from a survey among the project partners regarding earlier data exchanges with models from other discipline, the most important features of such a template were identified. The first test template was presented on a participants’ meeting and further detailed and improved in a joint effort. The modified template was sent out to all Island focal points. Chapter 4 summarizes the templates filled in by the respective island focal points, by island and by sector and identifies data gaps and barriers. Chapter 5 summarizes suggestions how to close this gap and chapter 6 concludes.

Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This chapter explores the nature and consequences of (a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts and (b) changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analyzing observatories; the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e., climate models and data), climate change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesized in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample, information on uncertainty is underrepresented: e.g., studies focus on only one scenario and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. While climatologists need better training in communication issues, decision-makers also need training in climatology to adopt more cautious and robust adaptation strategies that account for the uncertainty inherent in climate projections.

Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a "fashionable" and "highly controversial scientific topic". This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on climate change and tourism. Recent research provides substantial evidence that reports on anthropogenic climate change are accurate, and that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, including from the tourism industry, play a significant role in climate change. Some positive net effects may be experienced by some destinations in the short-term, but in the long-term all elements of the tourism system will be impacted. The expansion of tourism emissions at a rate greater than efficiency gains means that it is increasingly urgent that the tourism sector acknowledge, accept and respond to climate change. Debate on tourism-related adaptation and mitigation measures is to be encouraged and welcomed. Climate change denial is not.

Développées à partir d’une vision macroéconomique et traitant d’abord de la production, les politiques climatiques ont longtemps négligé la question des modes de vie, qui sont pourtant à la fois leur résultante et l’un de leurs leviers d’action majeurs. Leur réintroduction dans les inventaires d’émissions – à la fois par une meilleure analyse des échanges entre branches économiques, et par une déduction des exportations et une inclusion des importations – permet de renouveler le cadre d’analyse. Cette approche par la consommation permet d’envisager des objectifs de négociations internationales basées sur une convergence des émissions par tête en matière de mode de vie, articulés avec des objectifs sectoriels, mais aussi de dessiner de futurs outils comme une TVA carbone. Elle se heurte cependant à des contraintes pratiques de mise en œuvre. À plus court terme, des instruments spécifiques à la sensibilisation et à l’implication des ménages existent, notamment au niveau local. Le présent article vise à fournir les principaux éléments de ces débats sur la base de la littérature récente.

Background: It is now universally acknowledged that climate change constitutes a major threat to human health. At the same time, some of the measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so-called climate change mitigation measures, have significant health co-benefits (e.g., walking or cycling more; eating less meat). The goal of limiting global warming to 1,5° Celsius set by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in 2015 can only be reached if all stakeholders, including households, take actions to mitigate climate change. Results on whether framing mitigation measures in terms of their health co-benefits increases the likelihood of their implementation are inconsistent. The present study protocol describes the transdisciplinary project HOPE (HOuseholds’ Preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries) that investigates the role of health co-benefits in households’ decision making on climate change mitigation measures in urban households in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. Methods: HOPE employs a mixed-methods approach combining status-quo carbon footprint assessments, simulations of the reduction of households’ carbon footprints, and qualitative in-depth interviews with a subgroup of households. Furthermore, a policy analysis of current household oriented climate policies is conducted. In the simulation of the reduction of households’ carbon footprints, half of the households are provided with information on health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures, the other half is not. Households’ willingness to implement the measures is assessed and compared in between-group analyses of variance. Discussion: This is one of the first comprehensive mixed-methods approaches to investigate which mitigation measures households are most willing to implement in order to reach the 1,5° target set by the Paris Agreement, and whether health co-benefits can serve as a motivator for households to implement these measures. The comparison of the empirical data with current climate policies will provide knowledge for tailoring effective climate change mitigation and health policies. Errata: Herrmann et al. Household preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries: Does health information matter? A mixed-methods study protocol, BMC Public Health (2017) 17:679 DOI 10.1186/s12889-017-4676-yErrata: Herrmann et al. Household preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries: Does health information matter? A mixed-methods study protocol, BMC Public Health (2017) 17:846 DOI 10.1186/s12889-017-4861-z

International audience; Tourism has complex relationships with weather and climate, and there is consensus that tourism could be substantially affected by climatic change. While considerable research has been presented on how climatic change is likely to affect destinations and tourism stakeholders in the future, there remains limited understanding of the weather preferences of tourists. This is a research priority if the implications of climatic change for the temporal and geographic patterns of tourism demand are to be assessed with more relevance. This paper presents the results of a survey (n = 1643 respondents) of the weather preferences of French tourists. Results show the ranking of weather and climate as a factor of destination choice and satisfaction. They also indicate the high tolerance of tourists to heat and even to heat waves, whereas rainy conditions appear to be clearly repulsive. The weight of precipitation in indices like the Tourism Comfort Index should therefore be upgraded. The findings are also compared with studies in other countries. Slight differences in similar surveys can lead to a discrepancy in the appreciation of excessive heat and associated thresholds by 2-3 degrees C, which might limit the possibility to base climate change impact assessment on such fragile data.

Dans la perspective d'une reduction des emissions de gaz a effet de serre, le tourisme vers les destinations lointaines apparait problematique. Cet article evalue les emissions, identifie les variables d'action pour les reduire, et articule ces dernieres dans le cadre de scenarios a 2025 pour un ensemble de destinations : Guadeloupe, Reunion, Polynesie francaise et Nouvelle-Caledonie. Au cote de criteres comme la protection de la biodiversite ou la lutte contre la pauvrete, les agences de developpement devront integrer cette contrainte carbone dans leur decision sur l’opportunite ou non de soutenir le tourisme.

This article reviews direct freshwater consumption in tourism from both quantitative and qualitative viewpoints to assess the current water demand of the tourism sector and to identify current and future management challenges. The article concludes that even though tourism increases global water consumption, direct tourism-related water use is considerably less than 1% of global consumption, and will not become significant even if the sector continues to grow at anticipated rates of around 4% per year (international tourist arrivals). The situation differs at the regional level because tourism concentrates traveller flows in time and space, and often-in dry destinations where water resources are limited. Furthermore, the understanding of tourism's indirect water requirements, including the production of food, building materials and energy, remains inadequately understood, but is likely to be more substantial than direct water use. The article concludes that with expected changes in global precipitation patterns due to climate change, it is advisable in particular for already water scarce destinations to engage in proactive water management. Recommendations for managing tourism's water footprint are made.

The influence of climate change on tourism demand patterns will be shaped by the response of tourists to the complexity of mitigation policy anti its impacts on transportation systems, the wide range of climate change impacts on destinations, as well as broader impacts on society and economic development. Tourists have the largest adaptive capacity of elements within the tourism system because of their flexibility to substitute the place, timing and type of holiday, even at very short notice. Consequently, understanding tourist perceptions and reactions to the impacts of climate change is essential to anticipating the potential geographic and seasonal shifts in tourism demand, as well as the decline or increase of specific tourism markets. Yet, despite a wide range of publications assessing reactions of tourists to various environmental and climate-related changes, little is actually known about the complexity of demand responses. The paper reviews and discusses existing studies, and provides a framework for a better understanding of perceptions of change, as well as identifying major current uncertainties and research needs.

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO 2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and "avoiding dangerous climate change" objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of -50% to -80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.

The paper first describes an inventory for 2005 giving the tourism related CO 2 emission caused by global tourism, and presents a 30-year projection and a 45-year simulation. The study found that tourists cause 4.4% of global CO 2 emissions. Also these emissions are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.2% per year up to 2035. This increase is problematic as globally a reduction of emissions by 3-6% is required to avoid 'dangerous' climate change. Using contemporary scenario techniques it appeared difficult to find a future tourist travel system consistent with CO 2 emission reductions of up to 70% by 2050 with respect to 2005. Based on the model underlying the 30-year projection, 70 scenarios are presented in a 'landscape' graph exploring the effect of opportunities to reduce the emissions, but this attempt did not reach the large reductions envisaged. We therefore explored automated scenario generation as a way to define backcasting scenarios that both reach the emission reduction target and retain the highest possible economic value for the sector. The main contributions made by this study are (1) in comparing the value of different ways to approach a (desired) future and (2) giving insight into the kind of structural changes required within tourism and tourism transport in case very strong emission reductions are required. Finally the model showed signs of 'complex' behaviour.

The aim of this paper is to examine what tourism and leisure would be possible for the French under the constraint of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by a factor 4, through building a backcasting scenario. To this aim, a model of French tourist flows was constructed, split according to distance, modes of transport and a typology of behavioural patterns and calibrated for year 2000. By applying emission factors to each mode of transport the model yields GHG emissions. In a second step the drivers of tourism and leisure development were considered (demographics, the economy, security, technology, lifestyles) and their prospects for the future. These prospects were introduced into the model. It needed several iterations to obtain a picture of French tourism in 2050 that is compatible with the emissions goal and within which, what is deemed a socially acceptable level of mobility is maintained.

Tourism is becoming increasingly dependent on air transport. Recent scientific work has pointed out the significant and growing contribution of air transport to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Obligations to reduce GHG emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and post-Kyoto instruments might make transport more expensive or even restricted in the future. This paper examines these questions and the issues raised by the increasing number of organisations offering voluntary carbon offsetting schemes as a means of compensating for emissions of GHGs, mostly from transport, which could help to stabilise or reduce emissions. There are substantial differences between the approaches chosen by these organisations in terms of their calculation of emissions, compensation measures, price levels, company structures and evaluation processes. The paper discusses these differences and their consequences for the efficiency and credibility of voluntary carbon offsetting schemes. Within this increasingly contested area, there is general agreement that increased clarity and regulation is required.

This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of climate change and climate policy for tourism and create confusion and delay in developing and implementing tourism sector responses.

This paper deals with the prediction of French tourism/leisure mobility demands in 2050, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis is based on a model of household tourism/leisure mobility patterns based on four modes of transport. A sensitivity analysis quantifies possible changes in greenhouse gas emissions according to hypotheses related to demographics, economic situations, the international security context, transport technology and policy, the tourism market, lifestyles and cultural change. The results show the high sensitivity of the model to economic parameters, and that French tourism travel still has considerable growth potential. Any technological improvements could be offset by low investment in transport infrastructure and by permissive ‘transport pricing’. ‘Business as usual’ trends imply that French tourism/ leisure GHG emissions could increase by 90% by 2050, and passenger-kilometres by 200%. Very long distance trips and air transport are identified as major problems, caused by...

Given the growing dependence of tourism on transport and the contribution of tourism mobility to global warming, this activity might be seriously questioned by mitigation policies. This paper explores prospects for household tourism and leisure mobility and their associated impacts on climate change. Household mobility patterns associating various forms of tourism trips and proximity leisure outings are developed. Their comparison shows that less conventional tourism does not necessarily implies less mobility, also the critical impact of long haul travel on climate change, and that fundamentally the future impacts are strongly associated with the individual choices between tourism and the other uses of spare time. En raison de la dépendance croissante du tourisme vis à vis du transport, mais aussi de la contribution de la mobilité touristique au changement climatique, le développement de cette activité pourrait être sérieusement remis en question par les politiques de lutte contre le changement climatique. Cet article explore les évolutions possibles de la mobilité de tourisme et de loisirs, et ses impacts associés sur le changement climatique. Des profils de mobilité associent différentes formes de mobilité touristique et de mobilité de loisirs. La comparaison de ces profils montre d’abord que moins de tourisme – au sens classique du terme – n’impliquerait pas nécessairement moins de mobilité, ensuite le rôle déterminant des voyages à longue distance en avion, enfin que les arbitrages individuels entre tourisme et autres usages du temps libre sont un facteur déterminant des impacts à venir.

The paper first places the research within the context of international initiatives of developing environmental indicators for the tourism sector: indicator frameworks, data constraints and communication needs, national versus local approaches and indicator development procedures. The question of data availability, collection and processing is often undermined, and the national scale is the most relevant to analyse tourism driving forces and tourism/transport interrelationships. The main results of the French national assessment, led by the French Institute for the Environment in 1999–2000, are then presented, from the driving forces of environmental impacts (such as spatial and temporal concentrations, or the evolution of tourism demand as regards to the environment) to environmental impacts at national and destination level. French mobility patterns are dominated by road transport; they are moving towards shorter stays and more frequent departures, which lead to a high impact situation. The accommodatio...

The use of fossil energy is one of the major environmental problems associated with tourism and travel. Consequently, the need to limit fossil energy use has been highlighted as a precondition for achieving sustainable tourism development. However, tourism is also one of the most important sectors of the world economy, and fears have thus been expressed by the tourist industry and its organisations that increasing energy prices (for example, as a result of eco-taxes) could substantially decrease the economic welfare of countries and destinations. In this article, the interplay of environmental damage and economic gains is thus analysed within the context of tourism. Carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions are assessed in relation to the revenues generated, allowing for conclusions about the eco-efficiency of tourism.

This paper outlines the historical context in which indicators appeared, and links this to the need for improving information systems. The conclusions are made with particular regard for emerging issues, the most recent of which is that of sustainable development. Owing to the rather low reliability of data and to the difficulty in defining the limits of tourism as an economic activity, articulating sets of sustainable development indicators (SDIs) appears to be even more difficult for tourism than for other industry sectors. Recent and current attempts show a great variety of methods and results. They relate in particular to • the various demands placed on the data, • the geographical scale to which the indicators refer and • the type of policy called upon to foster sustainable development: public policy, self-regulation, etc. The results indicate that a certain set of issues raised by sustainable development are privileged while others are left aside. This underscores the need to review the more theoret...

L’article commence par rappeler les evolutions du tourisme urbain en France pendant les deux dernieres decennies, en insistant sur les difficultes de definition et de mesure des flux. Il montre comment les politiques de mise en valeur touristique des villes aboutissent a une mise en concurrence des collectivites. Toutefois, les villes connaissent des formes de tourisme tres variees, traduites dans une typologie des villes touristiques. Il n’en reste pas moins que, de maniere generale, les fonctions touristiques et de loisirs des villes generent des tensions dans l’amenagement et la vie urbaine : relation entre ville active et ville ludique avec une forte concentration du tourisme et des loisirs en centre ville mais exclusion de la peripherie, ecart entre ville revee et ville reelle... L’article s’interroge enfin sur les effets de l’explosion des mobilites et sur la place accordee aux fonctions recreatives dans la ville contemporaine.

francaisCes dernieres annees ont ete marquees par une preoccupation grandissante au sujet du changement climatique, avec un besoin de projections climatiques fiables exprime par les acteurs locaux publics et prives, au service des strategies et actions d'adaptation. Ces acteurs rencontrent des obstacles evidents qui concernent l'acces, la fiabilite (marge d'erreur, traitement des extremes, estimation de l'incertitude) et l'adaptation de ces projections a leurs besoins. Cet article a pour objectif de presenter les differents types de services climatiques qui visent a les rendre accessibles et un inedit, Proclim. Ce dernier facilite l'acces aux projections climatiques a haute resolution issues du projet Cordex, coordonne par le Programme mondial de recherche sur le climat, et progressivement publiees depuis 2014. Une etude pilote menee pour le Programme des Nations unies pour le developpement en Jordanie illustre sa mise en oeuvre. EnglishRecent years have been marked by a growing concern for climate change. In particular there is a need for reliable climate projections, serving future adaptation policies for public and private stakeholders. Indeed, climate data users are facing several barriers, amongst which the access, and reliability of data (e.g., uncertainty management, error margins, management of extreme events) but also the adaptation of climate projections to their needs. This paper aims at presenting the existing range of climate services, and a newcomer, Proclim. This service aims at making more accessible high resolution climate projection, derived from the Cordex datasets (Cordex is a World Climate Research Program initiative). A pilot study conducted for UNDP illustrates its implementation.

National audience; This paper explains the evolution of research into tourism and climate change, illustrating how early work concentrated on the impact of climate change on tourism, whereas current work also explores the impact of tourism on climate change. It goes on to elaborate a research agenda on both topics. The need to open up tourism research to other fields and professional worlds - such as climatology, the International Panel on Climate Change and transport research - is stressed, as is the need to organise the research community on a global basis, with more collaborative and comparative research.

This paper deals with the potential effects of climate change on tourism in France. It examines the implications of a scenario by Meteo-France (doubling the concentration of CO2) with regards to the climatic requirements of tourists, according to the different seasons, regions and natural resources on which tourism is based.

This deliverable aims to present the methods employed, tools used, results, and presents conclusions of the participatory process carried out at island level in SOCLIMPACTto propose, rank and evaluate alternativeadaptation pathways to face climate change impacts.A framework was set for a presential consultation method but with the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic context major adjustments had to be made to what was originally proposed. The Adaptation pathways rational and concept is presented explaining how the sector adaptation pathways were designed, how the proposed Adaptation Options were assembled in classes of adaptation and how Adaptation Policy Trajectories (APTs) were used as context to develop alternative adaptation pathways. The development and characterization of those Adaptation Options is explained, putting forward how these policy options were gathered at European level and then traduced and characterized to the island level.&nbsp

Tourism climate indices (TCI) are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, from the planning, investment or daily operations perspectives. A substantial amount of research has been carried out, in particular with respect to new indices formulae adapted to specific tourism products, and parameters and their weighting, taking into account surveys on the stated preferences of tourists, especially in terms of comfort. This paper illustrates another field of research, which seeks to better understand the different sources of uncertainty associated with indices. Indeed, slight differences in formula thresholds, variations in computation methods, and also the use of multimodel ensembles create nuances that affect the ways in which indices projections are usually presented. Firstly, we assess the impact of differences in preference surveys on the definition of indices thresholds, in particular for thermal comfort. Secondly, we compare computation methods for France, showing the need to better specify detailed data sources and their use to ensure the comparability of results. Thirdly, using multimodel ensembles for the Mediterranean basin, we assess the uncertainty inherent in long-term projections, which are used in modelling the economic impact of climate change. This paper argues in favour of a more cautious use of tourism comfort indices, with more consideration given to the robustness of data (validation, debiasing, uncertainty assessment, etc.) and users’ needs, from the climate services perspective. This paper was written by a team participating in the EU FP7 project CLIM-RUN “Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding Users Needs” (2011–2014).

SOCLIMPACT improves a climate change risk assessment, helping islands to identify their climate change related risks or to test their existing risk management strategies under climate change and therefore identify sectorial challenges where new strategies are needed. Following these steps, the SOCLIMPACT project will operationalize with a modelling chain between WP4-WP5 and WP6 the outputs of WP3: some relevant impact chains, selected after each step of WP3 will be modelized. o A first step of risk screening allows sector leaders to conduct a desk-top study and screen the climate change-related exposure of each sector using readily available datasets, which are registered in the D3.3 and D3.4. o A second step risk assessment takes a standard risk-based approach using national data, local information and expert knowledge in order to formalize some theoretical impact chains. o A third step (detailed) risk assessment process allows sector leaders and islands focal points to further investigate short-listed impact chains and provides support to prioritise sectors and/or sub-risks.

This first deliverable is a thematic and cross-cutting synthesis to define the four Soclimpact sectors of Blue Economy as well as their statistical boundaries. Secondly, the main impacts of climate change are analysed for each sector, so as start the brainstorming which will be detailed in the next deliverables on the impacts chains (3.2, 3.3 and 3.4.). Finally, the governance of the WP3 is presented in the form of matrices and tables to summarize the involvement of the Soclimpact partners on the 12 islands of the project. The collected information is the result of several meetings between the partners: - A brainstorming during the Kick-Off meeting (end of January) about climate change possible impacts per geographical scales (pilot sites, islands, regional area, etc.) and per sector. - Contributions from the sector leaders of the project: ULPGC for Coastal and Maritime Tourism, CETECIMA for Maritime Transport, ITC for Marine Energy and AquaBioTech Group for Aquaculture - Contributions from the sector teams during online meetings - WP3 online meetings - WP3 meeting in Corsica: the need to meet partners physically one more time caused delays for the submission of the deliverable.

Theme: Data, methods and approaches in Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Sub-Theme: Integrating methods and tools for disaster risk and adaptation, Economic evaluation of risks and responses Format: Oral Communication

In this report a set of indicators is proposed for summarizing objectives and providing up-to-date information on the impacts of climate change, the state-of-the-environment and societal conditions of islands. These indicators are meant to support a practical description. They can be used for identifying policy goals, defining strategies, monitoring and evaluating implemented actions. They are also useful for communicating the environmental and societal conditions to a particular audience, such as local stakeholders, administrations, general public, policymakers from local to national levels. Finally, they provide a synthetic way to describe multiple aspects of the state of environment, natural resources assets and related human activities including socio-economic factors. These indicators are based on environmental data, models, oceanographic and meteorological observations, and administrative archives. They are based on several parameters including physical, chemical or biological measures associated with environmental quality or natural resources, information on processes and interventions, economical values, members describing the composition and characteristics of societies and of their needs. The indicators are focused on the four sectors addressed by SOCLIMPACT and strictly linked to the identified impact chains. They allow:  To compare conditions among islands  To identify critical situations  To identify trends and evolution of conditions leading to risks  To monitor risks  To monitor the results of management strategies

In a study of households living in mid-size cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden we assessed preferences (among 65 possible actions) for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Each GHG reduction action was compared in terms of three objective criteria – CO2e emissions, health impact and cost – using scores which gave alternative priority weightings to each. The multi-criteria scores were then compared with the proportion of respondents declaring their willingness to implement each action. Actions that respondents were often willing to implement and scored highly on the three assessment criteria included measures with likely ancillary benefits for health such as eating 30% more vegetarian food, walking and cycling instead of using public transport, and improvements of roof and window insulation. Although most householders appeared willing to make appreciable changes to their lifestyle and home in order to help achieve GHG emissions reductions, relatively few signaled their willingness to adopt major changes, such as becoming entirely vegetarian or giving up use of the car, even if there were appreciable health benefits. The evidence of these analyses provides insights into household preferences for actions that may help achieve important mitigation and health benefits.

Theme: Data, methods and approaches in Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Sub-Theme: Integrating methods and tools for disaster risk and adaptation Format: Session (science-practice)