Search

Aims To examine the association between the burden of cardiometabolic disorders with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and lifetime risk of AF incidence among men and women. Methods Four thousand one hundred and one men and 5421 women free of AF at baseline (1996–2008) from the population-based and results Rotterdam Study were included. Sex-specific Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to assess the association between the burden of cardiometabolic disorders and risk of new-onset AF. The remaining lifetime risk for AF was estimated at index ages of 55, 65, and 75 years up to age 108. Mean age at baseline was 65.5 ± 9.4 years. Median followup time was 12.8 years. In the fully adjusted model, a stronger association was found between a larger burden of cardiometabolic disorders and incident AF among women [hazard ratio (HR): 1.33% and 95% conference interval (CI): 1.22–1.46], compared to men [1.18 (1.08–1.29)] (P for sex-interaction <0.05). The lifetime risk for AF significantly increased with the number of cardiometabolic disorders among both sexes. At an index age of 55 years, the lifetime risks (95% CIs) for AF were 27.1% (20.8–33.4), 26.5% (22.8–30.5), 29.9% (26.7–33.2), 30.8% (25.7–35.8), and 33.3% (23.1–43.6) among men, for 0, 1, 2, 3, and ≥4 comorbid cardiometabolic disorders. Corresponding risks were 15.8% (10.5–21.2), 23.0% (19.8–26.2), 29.7% (26.8–32.6), 26.2% (20.8–31.6), and 34.2% (17.3–51.1) among women. Conclusion We observed a significant combined impact of cardiometabolic disorders on AF risk, in particular among women. Participants with cardiometabolic multimorbidity had a significantly higher lifetime risk of AF, especially at a young index age. Lay summary The present study examined the association between the burden of cardiometabolic disorders with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and lifetime risk of AF incidence among 4101 men and 5421 women from the Rotterdam Study cohort. We observed a significant combined impact of car

BACKGROUND: We investigated the potential impact of antihypertensive drugs for atrial fibrillation (AF) prevention through a drug target Mendelian randomization study to avoid the potential limitations of clinical studies. METHODS: Validated published single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that mimic the action of 12 antihypertensive drug classes, including alpha-adrenoceptor blockers, adrenergic neuron blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-II receptor blockers, beta-adrenoceptor blockers, centrally acting antihypertensive drugs, calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, potassium-sparing diuretics and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, renin inhibitors, thiazides and related diuretic agents, and vasodilators were used. We estimated, via their corresponding gene and protein targets, the downstream effect of these drug classes to prevent AF via systolic blood pressure using 2-sample Mendelian randomization analyses. The SNPs were extracted from 2 European genome-wide association studies for the drug classes (n=317 754; n=757 601) and 1 European genome-wide association study for AF (n=1 030 836). RESULTS: Drug target Mendelian randomization analyses supported the significant preventive causal effects of lowering systolic blood pressure per 10 mm Hg via alpha-adrenoceptor blockers (n=11 SNPs; odds ratio [OR], 0.34 [95% CI, 0.21-0.56]; P=2.74×10-05), beta-adrenoceptor blockers (n=17 SNPs; OR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.35-0.78]; P=1.62×10-03), calcium channel blockers (n=49 SNPs; OR, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.36-0.70]; P=4.51×10-05), vasodilators (n=19 SNPs; OR, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.34-0.84]; P=7.03×10-03), and all 12 antihypertensive drug classes combined (n=158 SNPs; OR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.54-0.77]; P=8.50×10-07) on AF risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that lowering systolic blood pressure via protein targets of various antihypertensive drugs seems promising for AF prevention. Our findings inform futur

Background. Investigation of circulating metabolites associated with kidney function and chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk could enhance our understanding of underlying pathways and identify new biomarkers for kidney function. Methods. We selected participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study with data on circulating metabolites and estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine (eGFRcreat) available at the same time point. Data on eGFR based on serum cystatin C (eGFRcys) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were also included. CKD was defined as eGFRcreat <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Data on circulating metabolites (ntotal = 1381) was obtained from the Nightingale and Metabolon platform. Linear regression, linear mixed, and Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between metabolites and kidney function. We performed bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses to investigate causality of the identified associations. Results. We included 3337 and 1540 participants with data from Nightingale and Metabolon, respectively. A total of 1381 metabolites (243 from Nightingale and 1138 from Metabolon) were included in the analyses. A large number of metabolites were significantly associated with eGFRcreat, eGFRcys, ACR, and CKD, including 16 metabolites that were associated with all four outcomes. Among these, C-glycosyltryptophan (HR 1.50, 95%CI 1.31;1.71) and X-12026 (HR 1.46, 95%CI 1.26;1.68) were most strongly associated with CKD risk. We revealed sex differences in the associations of 11-ketoetiocholanolone glucuronide and 11-beta-glucuronide with the kidney function assessments. No causal associations between the identified metabolites and kidney function were observed. Conclusion. Our study indicates that several circulating metabolites are associated with kidney function which are likely to have potential as biomarkers, rather than as molecules involved i

In this thesis we examined various risk factors and sex differences and their influence on the atrial fibrillation development in the general population. We found that vascular-, cardiac autonomic-, inflammatory-, traditional-, novel-, and sex-specific risk factors are implicated in the etiology of atrial fibrillation.

Background: Sex differences and causality of the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population remain unclear. Methods: 12,334 participants free of AF from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Measures of HRV including the standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), SDNN corrected for heart rate (SDNNc), RR interval differences (RMSSD), RMSSD corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc), and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the association between longitudinal measures of HRV with new-onset AF. Genetic variants for HRV were used as instrumental variables in a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary-level data. Results: During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 1302 incident AF cases occurred among 12,334 participants (mean age 64.8 years, 58.3% women). In joint models, higher SDNN (fully-adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24, 1.04–1.47, p = 0.0213), and higher RMSSD (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI 1.33, 1.13–1.54, p = 0.0010) were significantly associated with new-onset AF. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the associations were mostly prominent among women. In MR analyses, a genetically determined increase in SDNN (odds ratio (OR), 95% CI 1.60, 1.27–2.02, p = 8.36 × 10 –05), and RMSSD (OR, 95% CI 1.56, 1.31–1.86, p = 6.32 × 10 –07) were significantly associated with an increased odds of AF. Conclusion: Longitudinal measures of uncorrected HRV were significantly associated with new-onset AF, especially among women. MR analyses supported the causal relationship between uncorrected measures of HRV with AF. Our findings indicate that measures to modulate HRV might prevent AF in the general population, in particular in women. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.] AF; atrial fibrill

AIMS: While atrial fibrillation (AF) is suggested to induce a prothrombotic state, increasing thrombotic risk, it is also hypothesized that coagulation underlies AF onset. However, conclusive evidence is lacking. With this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to summarize and combine the evidence on the associations between coagulation factors with AF in both longitudinal and cross-sectional studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We systematically searched for longitudinal cohort and cross-sectional studies investigating AF and thrombosis. For longitudinal studies, pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. For cross-sectional studies, we determined pooled standardized mean differences (SMDs) and 95% CIs. A total of 17 longitudinal and 44 cross-sectional studies were included. In longitudinal studies, we found significant associations between fibrinogen (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.10), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12), and D-dimer (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19) and AF incidence. In cross-sectional studies, we found significantly increased levels of fibrinogen (SMD 0.47, 95% CI 0.20-0,74), von Willebrand factor (SMD 0.96, 95% CI 0.28-1.66), P-selectin (SMD 0.31, 95% CI 0.08-0.54), ß-thromboglobulin (SMD 0.82, 95% CI 0.61-1.04), Platelet Factor 4 (SMD 0.42, 95% CI 0.12-0.7), PAI-1 (1.73, 95% CI 0.26-3.19), and D-dimer (SMD 1.74, 95% CI 0.36-3.11) in AF patients, as opposed to controls. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that higher levels of coagulation factors are associated with prevalent and incident AF. These associations are most pronounced with prevalent AF in cross-sectional studies. Limited evidence from longitudinal studies suggests a prothrombotic state underlying AF development.

Background: Clinical guidelines categorize atrial fibrillation (AF) based on the temporality of AF events. Due to its dependence on event duration, this classification is not applicable to population-based cohort settings. We aimed to develop a simple and standardized method to classify AF patterns at population level. Additionally, we compared the longitudinal trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors preceding the AF patterns, and between men and women. Methods: Between 1990 and 2014, participants from the population-based Rotterdam study were followed for AF status, and categorized into ‘single-documented AF episode’, ‘multiple-documented AF episodes’, or ‘long-standing persistent AF’. Using repeated measurements we created linear mixed-effects models to assess the longitudinal evolution of risk factors prior to AF diagnosis. Results: We included 14,061 participants (59.1% women, mean age 65.4 ± 10.2 years). After a median follow-up of 9.4 years (interquartile range 8.27), 1,137 (8.1%) participants were categorized as ‘single-documented AF episode’, 208 (1.5%) as ‘multiple-documented AF episodes’, and 57 (0.4%) as ‘long-standing persistent AF’. In men, we found poorer trajectories of weight and waist circumference preceding ‘long-standing persistent AF’ as compared to the other patterns. In women, we found worse trajectories of all risk factors between ‘long-standing persistent AF’ and the other patterns. Conclusion: We developed a standardized method to classify AF patterns in the general population. Participants categorized as ‘long-standing persistent AF’ showed poorer trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors prior to AF diagnosis, as compared to the other patterns. Our findings highlight sex differences in AF pathophysiology and provide insight into possible risk factors of AF patterns. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.].

Aims We aimed to assess the (shape of the) association and sex differences in the link between electrocardiographic parameters and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Methods A total of 12 212 participants free of AF at baseline from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Up to five and results repeated measurements of electrocardiographic parameters including PR, QRS, QT, QT corrected for heart rate (QTc), JT, RR interval, and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Cox proportional hazards- and joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the (shape of the) association between baseline and longitudinal electrocardiographic parameters with new-onset AF. Additionally, we evaluated potential sex differences. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 1282 incident AF cases occurred among 12 212 participants (mean age 64.9 years, 58.2% women). Penalized cubic splines revealed that associations between baseline electrocardiographic measures and risk of new-onset AF were generally U- and N-shaped. Sex differences in terms of the shape of the various associations were most apparent for baseline PR, QT, QTc, RR interval, and heart rate in relation to new-onset AF. Longitudinal measures of higher PR interval [fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.43, 1.02–2.04, P = 0.0393] and higher QTc interval (fully adjusted HR, 95% CI, 5.23, 2.18–12.45, P = 0.0002) were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular in men . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Context: Hyperglycemia and autonomic dysfunction are bidirectionally related. Objective: We investigated the association of longitudinal evolution of heart rate variability (HRV) with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) among the general population. Methods: We included 7630 participants (mean age 63.7 years, 58% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study who had no history of T2D and atrial fibrillation at baseline and had repeated HRV assessments at baseline and during follow-up. We used joint models to assess the association between longitudinal evolution of heart rate and different HRV metrics (including the heart rate-corrected SD of the normal-to-normal RR intervals [SDNNc], and root mean square of successive RR-interval differences [RMSSDc]) with incident T2D. Models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary-level data was also performed. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 871 individuals developed incident T2D. One SD increase in heart rate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.33), and log(RMSSDc) (HR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33) were independently associated with incident T2D. The HRs were 1.54 (95% CI, 1.08-2.06) for participants younger than 62 years and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01-1.31) for those older than 62 years for heart rate (P for interaction <.001). Results from bidirectional MR analyses suggested that HRV and T2D were not significantly related to each other. Conclusion: Autonomic dysfunction precedes development of T2D, especially among younger individuals, while MR analysis suggests no causal relationship. More studies are needed to further validate our findings.

AIMS: To investigate sex-specific longitudinal trajectories of various obesity-related measures and blood pressure at the population level and further assess the impact of these trajectories on new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF).METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants with ≥2 repeated assessments for various risk factors from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Latent class linear mixed models were fitted to identify the potential classes. Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess the association between risk factors' trajectories and the risk of new-onset AF, with the most favourable trajectory as reference. Among 7367 participants (mean baseline age: 73 years, 58.8% women), after a median follow-up time of 8.9 years (interquartile range: 5.3-10.4), 769 (11.4%) participants developed new-onset AF. After adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors, persistent-increasing body mass index (BMI) trajectory carried a higher risk for AF [hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: (1.39; 1.05-1.85) in men and (1.60; 1.19-2.15) in women], compared with the lower-and-stable BMI trajectory. Trajectories of elevated-and-stable waist circumference (WC) in women (1.53; 1.09-2.15) and elevated-and-stable hip circumference (HC) in men (1.83; 1.11-3.03) were associated with incident AF. For systolic blood pressure (SBP), the initially hypertensive trajectory carried the largest risk for AF among women (1.79; 1.21-2.65) and men (1.82; 1.13-2.95). Diastolic blood pressure trajectories were significantly associated with AF risk among women but not among men.CONCLUSION: Longitudinal trajectories of weight, BMI, WC, HC, and SBP were associated with new-onset AF in both men and women. Diastolic blood pressure trajectories were additionally associated with AF in women. Our results highlight the importance of assessing long-term exposure to risk factors for AF prevention among men and women.

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, has a large impact on quality of life and is associated with increased risk of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality. Over the past two decades advances regarding the clinical epidemiology and management of AF have been established. Moreover, sex differences in the prevalence, incidence, prediction, pathophysiology, and prognosis of AF have been identified. Nevertheless, AF remains to be a complex and heterogeneous disorder and a comprehensive sex- and gender-specific approach to predict new-onset AF is lacking. The exponential growth in various sources of big data such as electrocardiograms, electronic health records, and wearable devices, carries the potential to improve AF risk prediction. Leveraging these big data sources by artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled approaches, in particular in a sex- and gender-specific manner, could lead to substantial advancements in AF prediction and ultimately prevention. We highlight the current status, premise, and potential of big data to improve sex- and gender-specific prediction of new-onset AF.

Background: Obesity is a well-established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether body fat depots differentially associate with AF development remains unknown. Methods: In the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, body composition was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and liver and epicardial fat using computed tomography (CT). A body composition score was constructed by adding tertile scores of each fat depot. Principal component analysis was conducted to identify potential body fat distribution patterns. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR; 95% CI) per 1-standard deviation increase in corresponding fat depots to enable comparisons. Results: Over a median follow-up of 9.6 and 8.6 years, 395 (11.4%) and 172 (8.0%) AF cases were ascertained in the DXA and the CT analyses, respectively. After adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors, absolute fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.33; 1.05–1.68), gynoid fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.36; 1.12–1.65), epicardial fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.27; 1.09-1.48), and android-to-gynoid fat ratio (HR; 95% CI 0.81; 0.70-0.94) were independently associated with new-onset AF. After further adjustment for lean mass, associations between fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.17; 1.04-1.32), gynoid fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.21; 1.08–1.37), and android-to-gynoid fat ratio (HR; 95% CI 0.84; 0.72–0.97) remained statistically significant. Larger body fat score was associated with a higher AF risk (HR; 95% CI 1.10; 1.02–1.20). Borderline significant association was found between a subcutaneous fat predominant pattern with AF onset (HR; 95% CI 1.21; 0.98–1.49). Conclusions: Various body fat depots were associated with new-onset AF. Total fat mass and gynoid fat mass were independently associated with AF after adjustment for body size. The inverse association between android-to-gynoid fat ratio with AF presents a novel finding. A significant dose-response relationship between b

Importance: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia worldwide, with different epidemiological and pathophysiological processes for women vs men and a poorer prognosis for women. Further investigation of sex-specific risk factors associated with AF development in women is warranted. Objective: To investigate the linear and potential nonlinear associations between sex-specific risk factors and the risk of new-onset AF in women. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study obtained data from the 2006 to 2010 UK Biobank study, a cohort of more than 500 000 participants aged 40 to 69 years. Participants were women without AF and history of hysterectomy and/or bilateral oophorectomy at baseline. Median follow-up period for AF onset was 11.6 years, and follow-up ended on October 3, 2020. Exposures: Self-reported, sex-specific risk factors, including age at menarche, history of irregular menstrual cycle, menopause status, age at menopause, years after menopause, age at first live birth, years after last birth, history of spontaneous miscarriages, history of stillbirths, number of live births, and total reproductive years. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was new-onset AF, which was defined by the use of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code I48. Results: A total of 235 191 women (mean [SD] age, 55.7 [8.1] years) were included in the present study. During follow-up, 4629 (2.0%) women experienced new-onset AF. In multivariable-adjusted models, history of irregular menstrual cycle was associated with higher AF risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01-1.79). Both early menarche (age 7-11 years; HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.00-1.21]) and late menarche (age 13-18 years; HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.00-1.17]) were associated with AF incidence. Early menopause (age 35-44 years; HR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.10-1.39]) and delayed menopaus

Background: The potential bidirectional causal association between kidney function and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unclear. Methods: We conducted a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. From multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we retrieved genetic variants associated with kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate based on creatinine (eGFRcreat), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), chronic kidney disease (CKD stage ≥G3): n = 1,045,620, eGFR based on cystatin C: n = 24,063-32,861, urine albumin-tocreatinine ratio (UACR), and microalbuminuria: n = 564,257), and AF (n = 1,030,836). The inverse-variance weighted method was used as our main analysis. Results: MR analyses supported a causal effect of CKD (n = 9 SNPs, odds ratio (OR): 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04–1.17, p-value = 1.97 × 10− 03), and microalbuminuria (n = 5 SNPs, OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.10–1.46, pvalue = 1.38 × 10− 03) on AF risk. We also observed a causal effect of AF on eGFRcreat (n = 97 SNPs, OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00–1.00, p-value = 6.78 × 10− 03), CKD (n = 107 SNPs, OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.03–1.09, p-value = 2.97 × 10− 04), microalbuminuria (n = 83 SNPs, OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04–1.09, p-value = 2.49 × 10− 08), and a suggestive causal effect on eGFRcys (n = 103 SNPs, OR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.99–1.00, p-value = 4.61 × 10− 02). Sensitivity analyses, including weighted median estimator, MR-Egger, the MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier test, and excluding genetic variants associated with possible confounders and/or horizontal mediators (myocardial infarction/coronary artery disease, heart failure) indicated that these findings were robust. Conclusions: Our results supported a bidirectional causal association between kidney function and AF. The shared genetic architecture between kidney dysfunction and AF might represent potential important therapeutic targets to prevent both conditi

BACKGROUND: Consensus lacks concerning a bidirectional association between kidney function and atrial fibrillation (AF), but this is crucial information for prevention/treatment efforts for both chronic kidney disease and AF. Therefore, we investigated the bidirectional association between kidney function and AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study was a prospective cohort study including 9228 participants (mean age, 64.9 years; 57.2% women) with information on kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] based on serum creatinine [eGFR-creat], cystatin C [eGFRcys], or both [eGFRcreat-cys], and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio) and AF. Reduced kidney function was defined as eGFRcreat <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2. Cox proportional-hazards, logistic regression, linear mixed, and joint models were used to investigate the association of kidney function with AF and vice versa. During follow-up (median of 8.0 years), 780 events of incident AF occurred. Lower eGFRcys and eGFRcreat-cys were associated with increased AF risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 1.03–1.14] and HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01–1.14], respectively, per 10 mL/min per 1.73 m2 eGFR decrease). For eGFRcys and eGFRcreat-cys, 10-year cumulative incidence of AF was 16% (eGFR <60) and 6% (eGFR ≥60). Prevalent AF (versus no prevalent AF) was associated with 2.85 mL/min per 1.73 m2 lower eGFRcreat and with a faster decline of eGFRcreat with age. Prevalent AF was associated with a 1.3-fold increased risk of incident reduced kidney function. CONCLUSIONS: Kidney function, especially eGFRcys, and AF are bidirectionally associated. There are currently no targeted prevention efforts for AF in patients with mild chronic kidney disease and vice versa. Our results could provide the first step to improve prediction/prevention of both conditions.

BACKGROUND: Limited population-based data on the (sex-specific) link between subclinical measures of peripheral atherosclerosis and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) exist. METHODS AND RESULTS: Subclinical measures of peripheral atherosclerosis including carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque, and ankle-brachial index (ABI) were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. A total of 12 840 participants free of AF at baseline from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Cox proportional hazards models and joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the associations between baseline and longitudinal measures of cIMT, carotid plaque, and ABI with new-onset AF. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, 1360 incident AF cases occurred among 12 840 participants (mean age 65.2 years, 58.3% women). Higher baseline cIMT (fully-adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 95% CI, 1.81, 1.21– 2.71; P=0.0042), presence of carotid plaque (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 1.19, 1.04–1.35; P=0.0089), lower ABI (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 1.57, 1.14– 2.18; P=0.0061) and longitudinal measures of higher cIMT (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 2.14, 1.38– 3.29; P=0.0021), presence of carotid plaque (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 1.61, 1.12–2.43; P=0.0112), and lower ABI (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 4.43, 1.83–10.49; P=0.0007) showed significant associations with new-onset AF in the general population. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the associations for cIMT, carotid plaque, and ABI were mostly prominent among women. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline and longitudinal subclinical measures of peripheral atherosclerosis (carotid atherosclerosis, and lower extremity peripheral atherosclerosis) were significantly associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF, especially among women.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common age-related cardiac arrhythmia. The etiology underlying AF is still largely unknown. At the intersection of the innate immune system and hemostasis, immunothrombosis may be a possible cause of atrial remodeling, and therefore be an underlying cause of AF. Methods: From 1990 to 2014, we followed participants aged 55 and over, free from AF at inclusion. Immunothrombosis factors fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, ADAMTS13, and neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) levels were measured at baseline. Participants were followed until either onset of AF, loss-to-follow-up, or reaching the end-date of 01-01-2014. Cox proportional hazard modelling was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. Results: We followed 6174 participants (mean age 69.1 years, 57% women) for a median follow-up time of 12.8 years. 364 men (13.7%, incidence rate 13.0/1000 person-years) and 365 women (10.4%, incidence rate 8.9/1000 person-years) developed AF. We found no significant association between markers of immunothrombosis and new-onset AF after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors [HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.93–1.08) for fibrinogen, 1.04 (0.97–1.12) for von Willebrand factor, 1.00 (1.00–1.01) for ADAMTS13, and 1.01 (0.94–1.09) for NETs]. In addition, we found no differences in associations between men and women. Conclusion: We found no associations between markers of immunothrombosis and new-onset AF in the general population. Inflammation and immunothrombosis may be associated with AF through other cardiovascular risk factors or predisposing conditions of AF. Our findings challenge the added value of biomarkers in AF risk prediction. Graphic abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.].