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BACKGROUND: Aseptic loosening of elbow replacements, seen in long-term follow-up, remains a problem. In this study, we attempted to determine the influence of cementing technique, prosthetic position, different component sizes, use of a bone plug, and intraoperative fractures on the development and progression of radiolucent lines and aseptic loosening. METHODS: We studied standard radiographs of 125 primary Souter-Strathclyde total elbow prostheses using the Wrightington method. Additionally, 104 preoperative radiographs were available for analysis. We used a Markow statistical model to detect relationships between all factors described above. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up time of 5.5 (2-19) years, 21 (17%) prostheses had loosened radiographically (10-year survival: 65%). When the humeral component was tilted more medially or more anteriorly, we found development of radiolucent lines at the medial condyle and at the posterior side of the humeral component. However, the progression of these lines was not influenced by these positions. No other prognostic factors for radiolucent lines or aseptic loosening were found. INTERPRETATION: Despite the small number of elbows studied, the weak influence of prosthetic position on aseptic loosening gives more ground for a multifactorial cause for aseptic loosening of the Souter-Strathclyde total elbow prosthesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Total elbow arthroplasty is a well-established treatment for the painful elbow joint in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. We present the results of what we believe to be the first prospective study of the Souter-Strathclyde total elbow prosthesis.Methods: Between June 1982 and December 2000, 204 primary total elbow prostheses were inserted in 166 patients who had rheumatoid arthritis. No patient was lost to follow-up. The mean duration of follow-up was 6.4 years. All patients were examined preoperatively, at one and two years postoperatively, and at regular intervals thereafter.Results: Six of the 204 elbows had pain at rest at the time of the latest follow-up. Ten patients (ten elbows) without previous neurological symptoms had development of paresthesias in the distribution of the ulnar nerve postoperatively. Patients who had pain at rest or at night and those who had ulnar nerve symptoms preoperatively were found to have a significant chance of having the same complaints postoperatively. Pain at rest or at night and a decrease in function during the follow-up period were associated with humeral loosening. Twenty-four elbows had revision of the total elbow prosthesis because of loosening of the humeral component (ten), loosening after fracture (six), dislocation (four), infection (two), restricted range of motion (one), or fracture of the middle part of the humeral shaft, proximal to the prosthesis (one). One prosthesis was removed because of humeral loosening, and eight were removed because of deep infection. Another five prostheses were radiographically loose at the time of the latest follow-up. The rate of implant survival, according to the method of Kaplan-Meier, was 77.4% after ten years and 65.2% after eighteen years.Conclusions: Total elbow replacement is associated with a high complication rate and therefore may be warranted only for seriously disabled patients. Currently, the results associated with the Souter-Strathclyde total elbow prosthesis are comparable with the results associated with other prostheses, but loosening of the humeral component remains a concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Total elbow arthroplasty is a well-established treatment for the painful elbow joint in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. We present the results of what we believe to be the first prospective study of the Souter-Strathclyde total elbow prosthesis.Methods: Between June 1982 and December 2000, 204 primary total elbow prostheses were inserted in 166 patients who had rheumatoid arthritis. No patient was lost to follow-up. The mean duration of follow-up was 6.4 years. All patients were examined preoperatively, at one and two years postoperatively, and at regular intervals thereafter.Results: Six of the 204 elbows had pain at rest at the time of the latest follow-up. Ten patients (ten elbows) without previous neurological symptoms had development of paresthesias in the distribution of the ulnar nerve postoperatively. Patients who had pain at rest or at night and those who had ulnar nerve symptoms preoperatively were found to have a significant chance of having the same complaints postoperatively. Pain at rest or at night and a decrease in function during the follow-up period were associated with humeral loosening. Twenty-four elbows had revision of the total elbow prosthesis because of loosening of the humeral component (ten), loosening after fracture (six), dislocation (four), infection (two), restricted range of motion (one), or fracture of the middle part of the humeral shaft, proximal to the prosthesis (one). One prosthesis was removed because of humeral loosening, and eight were removed because of deep infection. Another five prostheses were radiographically loose at the time of the latest follow-up. The rate of implant survival, according to the method of Kaplan-Meier, was 77.4% after ten years and 65.2% after eighteen years.Conclusions: Total elbow replacement is associated with a high complication rate and therefore may be warranted only for seriously disabled patients. Currently, the results associated with the Souter-Strathclyde total elbow prosthesis are comparable with the results associated with other prostheses, but loosening of the humeral component remains a concern.Level Of Evidence: Therapeutic study, Level IV (case series [no, or historical, control group]). See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a systemic disease; morbidity and mortality due to COPD are on the increase, and it has great impact on patients' lives. Most COPD patients are managed by general practitioners (GP). Too often, GPs base their initial assessment of patient's disease severity mainly on lung function. However, lung function correlates poorly with COPD-specific health-related quality of life and exacerbation frequency. A validated COPD disease risk index that better represents the clinical manifestations of COPD and is feasible in primary care seems to be useful. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a practical COPD disease risk index that predicts the clinical course of COPD in primary care patients with GOLD stages 2-4.Methods/design: We will conduct 2 linked prospective cohort studies with COPD patients from GPs in Switzerland and the Netherlands. We will perform a baseline assessment including detailed patient history, questionnaires, lung function, history of exacerbations, measurement of exercise capacity and blood sampling. During the follow-up of at least 2 years, we will update the patients' profile by registering exacerbations, health-related quality of life and any changes in the use of medication. The primary outcome will be health-related quality of life. Secondary outcomes will be exacerbation frequency and mortality. Using multivariable regression analysis, we will identify the best combination of variables predicting these outcomes over one and two years and, depending on funding, even more years.Discussion: Despite the diversity of clinical manifestations and available treatments, assessment and management today do not reflect the multifaceted character of the disease. This is in contrast to preventive cardiology where, nowadays, the treatment in primary care is based on patient-specific and fairly refined cardiovascular risk profile corresponding to differences in prognosis. After completion of this study, we will have a practical COPD-disease risk index that predicts the clinical course of COPD in primary care patients with GOLD stages 2-4. In a second step we will incorporate evidence-based treatment effects into this model, such that the instrument may guide physicians in selecting treatment based on the individual patients' prognosis.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Archive NCT00706602. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Asthma is a difficult diagnosis to establish in preschool children. A few years ago, our group presented a prediction rule for young children at risk for asthma in general practice. Before this prediction rule can safely be used in practice, cross-validation is required. In addition, general practitioners face many therapeutic management decisions in children at risk for asthma. The objectives of the study are: (1) identification of predictors for asthma in preschool children at risk for asthma with the aim of cross-validating an earlier derived prediction rule; (2) compare the effects of different treatment strategies in preschool children.Design: In this prospective cohort study one to five year old children at risk of developing asthma were selected from general practices. At risk was defined as 'visited the general practitioner with recurrent coughing (>or= 2 visits), wheezing (>or=1) or shortness of breath (>or=1) in the previous 12 months'. All children in this prospective cohort study will be followed until the age of six. For our prediction rule, demographic data, data with respect to clinical history and additional tests (specific immunoglobulin E (IgE), fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO), peak expiratory flow (PEF)) are collected. History of airway specific medication use, symptom severity and health-related quality of life (QoL) are collected to estimate the effect of different treatment intensities (as expressed in GINA levels) using recently developed statistical techniques. In total, 1,938 children at risk of asthma were selected from general practice and 771 children (40%) were enrolled. At the time of writing, follow-up for all 5-year olds and the majority of the 4-year olds is complete. The total and specific IgE measurements at baseline were carried out by 87% of the children. Response rates to the repeated questionnaires varied from 93% at baseline to 73% after 18 months follow-up; 89% and 87% performed PEF and FENO measurements, respectively.Discussion: In this study a prediction rule for asthma in young children, to be used in (general) practice, will be cross-validated. Our study will also provide more insight in the effect of treatment of asthma in preschool children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation time distribution is hampered by incomplete data about infection. We discuss two biases that may result from incorrect handling of such data. Notified cases may recall recent exposures more precisely (differential recall). This creates bias if the analysis is restricted to observations with well-defined exposures, as longer incubation times are more likely to be excluded. Another bias occurred in the initial estimates based on data concerning travellers from Wuhan. Only individuals who developed symptoms after their departure were included, leading to under-representation of cases with shorter incubation times (left truncation). This issue was not addressed in the analyses performed in the literature., Methods: We performed simulations and provide a literature review to investigate the amount of bias in estimated percentiles of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation time distribution., Results: Depending on the rate of differential recall, restricting the analysis to a subset of narrow exposure windows resulted in underestimation in the median and even more in the 95th percentile. Failing to account for left truncation led to an overestimation of multiple days in both the median and the 95th percentile., Conclusion: We examined two overlooked sources of bias concerning exposure information that the researcher engaged in incubation time estimation needs to be aware of., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: The clinical management of leprosy is complicated by leprosy reactions (LR) causing irreversible nerve damage and disabilities. LR often require long-term use of corticosteroids causing serious side effects. Adjunct host-directed therapy (HDT) is a potentially attractive strategy in leprosy to prevent LR and associated immunopathology, modulate immunological memory that protects against recurrence, and thereby reduce nerve damage, disability and corticosteroid-associated morbidities. Metformin, a well-tolerated, safe and cheap anti-hyperglycaemic drug, is repurposed as HDT in auto-immune and infectious diseases, like tuberculosis (TB). Metformin use in people with diabetes is associated with reduced risks of TB-infection, progression to active TB, treatment failure and TB-mortality. Given the similarities both mycobacteria share, we hypothesize that among persons with multibacillary (MB) leprosy, adjunctive metformin may prevent/mitigate LR., Methods: We will perform a double-blind controlled proof-of-concept trial in which people with newly diagnosed multibacillary leprosy will be randomized (1:1) to metformin hydrochloride 1000mg extended release once daily versus placebo for 24 weeks in addition to standard-of-care WHO MB multidrug therapy (MDT) during 48 weeks. We aim to enrol 166 participants aged between 18 and 65 years, across five clinical sites in two leprosy endemic areas in Indonesia. Primary outcomes are the proportion of participants experiencing a LR and the frequency of (serious) adverse events. Secondary outcomes are the severity and time to first LR, the cumulative corticosteroid usage, and quality of life. The total study follow-up is 48 weeks., Discussion: LR signify the most important cause of irreversible nerve damage leading to anatomical deformities and disabilities, imposing a social and financial burden on those affected. Our study aims to evaluate the efficacy, tolerability and safety of adjunct metformin added to MDT in persons with multibacillary leprosy, and explore its effects on clinical and immunological outcomes., Clinicaltrialsgov Registration: NCT05243654 (17/02/2022)., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2024 Krismawati H et al.)

Background: Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is hampered by the lack of a gold standard. Current microbiological tests lack sensitivity and clinical diagnostic approaches are subjective. We therefore built a diagnostic model that can be used before microbiological test results are known., Methods: We included 659 individuals aged [Formula: see text] years with suspected brain infections from a prospective observational study conducted in Vietnam. We fitted a logistic regression diagnostic model for TBM status, with unknown values estimated via a latent class model on three mycobacterial tests: Ziehl-Neelsen smear, Mycobacterial culture, and GeneXpert. We additionally re-evaluated mycobacterial test performance, estimated individual mycobacillary burden, and quantified the reduction in TBM risk after confirmatory tests were negative. We also fitted a simplified model and developed a scoring table for early screening. All models were compared and validated internally., Results: Participants with HIV, miliary TB, long symptom duration, and high cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lymphocyte count were more likely to have TBM. HIV and higher CSF protein were associated with higher mycobacillary burden. In the simplified model, HIV infection, clinical symptoms with long duration, and clinical or radiological evidence of extra-neural TB were associated with TBM At the cutpoints based on Youden's Index, the sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing TBM for our full and simplified models were 86.0% and 79.0%, and 88.0% and 75.0% respectively., Conclusion: Our diagnostic model shows reliable performance and can be developed as a decision assistant for clinicians to detect patients at high risk of TBM. Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis is hampered by the lack of gold standard. We developed a diagnostic model using latent class analysis, combining confirmatory test results and risk factors. Models were accurate, well-calibrated, and can support both clinical practice and research., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Six lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis sensu stricto (which excludes M. africanum) are described. Single-country or small observational data suggest differences in clinical phenotype between lineages. We present strain lineage and clinical phenotype data from 12,246 patients from 3 low-incidence and 5 high-incidence countries. We used multivariable logistic regression to explore the effect of lineage on site of disease and on cavities on chest radiography, given pulmonary TB; multivariable multinomial logistic regression to investigate types of extra-pulmonary TB, given lineage; and accelerated failure time and Cox proportional-hazards models to explore the effect of lineage on time to smear and culture-conversion. Mediation analyses quantified the direct effects of lineage on outcomes. Pulmonary disease was more likely among patients with lineage(L) 2, L3 or L4, than L1 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.79, (95% confidence interval 1.49-2.15), p<0.001; aOR = 1.40(1.09-1.79), p = 0.007; aOR = 2.04(1.65-2.53), p<0.001, respectively). Among patients with pulmonary TB, those with L1 had greater risk of cavities on chest radiography versus those with L2 (aOR = 0.69(0.57-0.83), p<0.001) and L4 strains (aOR = 0.73(0.59-0.90), p = 0.002). L1 strains were more likely to cause osteomyelitis among patients with extra-pulmonary TB, versus L2-4 (p = 0.033, p = 0.008 and p = 0.049 respectively). Patients with L1 strains showed shorter time-to-sputum smear conversion than for L2. Causal mediation analysis showed the effect of lineage in each case was largely direct. The pattern of clinical phenotypes seen with L1 strains differed from modern lineages (L2-4). This has implications for clinical management and could influence clinical trial selection strategies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Du et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Adjunctive glucocorticoids are widely used to treat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculous meningitis despite limited data supporting their safety and efficacy., Methods: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial involving HIV-positive adults (≥18 years of age) with tuberculous meningitis in Vietnam and Indonesia. Participants were randomly assigned to receive a 6-to-8-week tapering course of either dexamethasone or placebo in addition to 12 months of antituberculosis chemotherapy. The primary end point was death from any cause during the 12 months after randomization., Results: A total of 520 adults were randomly assigned to receive either dexamethasone (263 participants) or placebo (257 participants). The median age was 36 years; 255 of 520 participants (49.0%) had never received antiretroviral therapy, and 251 of 484 participants (51.9%) with available data had a baseline CD4 count of 50 cells per cubic millimeter or less. Six participants withdrew from the trial, and five were lost to follow-up. During the 12 months of follow-up, death occurred in 116 of 263 participants (44.1%) in the dexamethasone group and in 126 of 257 participants (49.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.66 to 1.10; P = 0.22). Prespecified analyses did not reveal a subgroup that clearly benefited from dexamethasone. The incidence of secondary end-point events, including cases of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome during the first 6 months, was similar in the two trial groups. The numbers of participants with at least one serious adverse event were similar in the dexamethasone group (192 of 263 participants [73.0%]) and the placebo group (194 of 257 participants [75.5%]) (P = 0.52)., Conclusions: Among HIV-positive adults with tuberculous meningitis, adjunctive dexamethasone, as compared with placebo, did not confer a benefit with respect to survival or any secondary end point. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust; ACT HIV ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03092817.)., (Copyright © 2023 Massachusetts Medical Society.)

Objectives: We investigated longitudinally Vietnamese small-scale chicken flocks in order to characterize changes in antimicrobial resistance gene (ARG) content over their life cycle, and the impact of antimicrobial use (AMU) on an intervention consisting of veterinary advice provision., Methods: AMU data and faecal samples were collected from 83 flocks (25 farms) at day-old, mid- and late-production (∼4 month cycle). Using high-throughput real-time PCR, samples were investigated for 94 ARGs. ARG copies were related to 16S rRNA and ng of DNA (ngDNA). Impact of AMU and ARGs in day-olds was investigated by mixed-effects models., Results: Flocks received a mean (standard error, SE) animal daily dose (ADD) of 736.7 (83.0) and 52.1 (9.9) kg in early and late production, respectively. Overall, ARGs/16S rRNA increased from day-old (mean 1.47; SE 0.10) to mid-production (1.61; SE 0.16), further decreasing in end-production (1.60; SE 0.1) (all P  > 0.05). In mid-production, ARGs/16S rRNA increased for aminoglycosides, phenicols, sulphonamides and tetracyclines, decreasing for polymyxins β-lactams and genes that confer resistance to mutiple classes (multi-drug resistance) (MDR). At end-production, aminoglycoside resistance decreased and polymyxin and quinolone resistance increased (all P  < 0.05). Results in relation to ngDNA gave contradictory results. Neither AMU nor ARGs in day-olds had an impact on subsequent ARG abundance. The intervention resulted in 74.2% AMU reduction; its impact on ARGs depended on whether ARGs/ngDNA (+14.8%) or ARGs/16S rRNA metrics (-10.7%) ( P  > 0.05) were computed., Conclusions: The flocks' environment (contaminated water, feed and residual contamination) is likely to play a more important role in transmission of ARGs to flocks than previously thought. Results highlight intriguing differences in the quantification of ARGs depending on the metric chosen., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Quarantine length for individuals who have been at risk for infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been based on estimates of the incubation time distribution. The time of infection is often not known exactly, yielding data with an interval censored time origin. We give a detailed account of the data structure, likelihood formulation and assumptions usually made in the literature: (i) the risk of infection is assumed constant on the exposure window and (ii) the incubation time follows a specific parametric distribution. The impact of these assumptions remains unclear, especially for the right tail of the distribution which informs quarantine policy. We quantified bias in percentiles by means of simulation studies that mimic reality as close as possible. If assumption (i) is not correct, then median and upper percentiles are affected similarly, whereas misspecification of the parametric approach (ii) mainly affects upper percentiles. The latter may yield considerable bias. We suggest a semiparametric method that provides more robust estimates without the need of a parametric choice. Additionally, we used a simulation study to evaluate a method that has been suggested if all infection times are left censored. It assumes that the width of the interval from infection to latest possible exposure follows a uniform distribution. This assumption gave biased results in the exponential phase of an outbreak. Our application to open source data suggests that focus should be on the level of information in the observations, as expressed by the width of exposure windows, rather than the number of observations., (© 2023 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Severe tetanus is characterized by muscle spasm and cardiovascular system disturbance. The pathophysiology of muscle spasm is relatively well understood and involves inhibition of central inhibitory synapses by tetanus toxin. That of cardiovascular disturbance is less clear, but is believed to relate to disinhibition of the autonomic nervous system. The clinical syndrome of autonomic nervous system dysfunction (ANSD) seen in severe tetanus is characterized principally by changes in heart rate and blood pressure which have been linked to increased circulating catecholamines. Previous studies have described varying relationships between catecholamines and signs of ANSD in tetanus, but are limited by confounders and assays used. In this study, we aimed to perform detailed characterization of the relationship between catecholamines (adrenaline and noradrenaline), cardiovascular parameters (heart rate and blood pressure) and clinical outcomes (ANSD, mechanical ventilation required, and length of intensive care unit stay) in adults with tetanus, as well as examine whether intrathecal antitoxin administration affected subsequent catecholamine excretion. Noradrenaline and adrenaline were measured by ELISA from 24-h urine collections taken on day 5 of hospitalization in 272 patients enrolled in a 2 × 2 factorial-blinded randomized controlled trial in a Vietnamese hospital. Catecholamine results measured from 263 patients were available for analysis. After adjustment for potential confounders (i.e., age, sex, intervention treatment, and medications), there were indications of non-linear relationships between urinary catecholamines and heart rate. Adrenaline and noradrenaline were associated with subsequent development of ANSD, and length of ICU stay., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Improvements in the early diagnosis of dengue are urgently needed, especially in resource-limited settings where the distinction between dengue and other febrile illnesses is crucial for patient management., Methods: In this prospective, observational study (IDAMS), we included patients aged 5 years and older with undifferentiated fever at presentation from 26 outpatient facilities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Viet Nam). We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory tests with dengue versus other febrile illnesses between day 2 and day 5 after onset of fever (ie, illness days). We built a set of candidate regression models including clinical and laboratory variables to reflect the need of a comprehensive versus parsimonious approach. We assessed performance of these models via standard measures of diagnostic values., Findings: Between Oct 18, 2011, and Aug 4, 2016, we recruited 7428 patients, of whom 2694 (36%) were diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed dengue and 2495 (34%) with (non-dengue) other febrile illnesses and met inclusion criteria, and were included in the analysis. 2703 (52%) of 5189 included patients were younger than 15 years, 2486 (48%) were aged 15 years or older, 2179 (42%) were female and 3010 (58%) were male. Platelet count, white blood cell count, and the change in these variables from the previous day of illness had a strong association with dengue. Cough and rhinitis had strong associations with other febrile illnesses, whereas bleeding, anorexia, and skin flush were generally associated with dengue. Model performance increased between day 2 and 5 of illness. The comprehensive model (18 clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·87 and specificities of 0·80 to 0·91, whereas the parsimonious model (eight clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·88 and specificities of 0·81 to 0·89. A model that includes laboratory markers that are easy to measure (eg, platelet count or white blood cell count) outperformed the models based on clinical variables only., Interpretation: Our results confirm the important role of platelet and white blood cell counts in diagnosing dengue, and the importance of serial measurements over subsequent days. We successfully quantified the performance of clinical and laboratory markers covering the early period of dengue. Resulting algorithms performed better than published schemes for distinction of dengue from other febrile illnesses, and take into account the dynamic changes over time. Our results provide crucial information needed for the update of guidelines, including the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness handbook., Funding: EU's Seventh Framework Programme., Translations: For the Bangla, Bahasa Indonesia, Portuguese, Khmer, Spanish and Vietnamese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests TJ reports personal fees from the Roche Severe Dengue Advisory Board, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Merck Pharmaceuticals, and Emergent Biosolutions, as a member of advisory boards, outside the submitted work. BAW reports personal fees from Takeda Pharmaceutical Company and from the Roche Severe Dengue Advisory Board, outside the submitted work. SY reports personal fees from Roche, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Understanding the natural history of anal high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is key for designing anal cancer prevention programs but has not been systematically characterized., Methods: We reanalyzed data from 34 studies including 16 164 individuals in 6 risk groups defined by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, sex, and male sexuality: men who have sex with men (MSM) and people with HIV (MSMWH), HIV-negative MSM, women with HIV (WWH), HIV-negative women, men who have sex with women (MSW) with HIV (MSWWH), and HIV-negative MSW. We used Markov models to estimate incidence and clearance of 13 hrHPV types and their determinants., Results: Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 had the highest incidence-clearance ratio of the hrHPV types. MSMWH had the highest hrHPV incidence (eg, 15.5% newly HPV-16 infected within 2 years), followed by HIV-negative MSM (7.5%), WWH (6.6%), HIV-negative women (2.9%), MSWWH (1.7%), and HIV-negative MSW (0.7%). Determinants of HPV-16 incidence included HIV status and number of sexual partners for MSM, women, and MSW, and anal sex behavior for MSM only. HPV-16 clearance was lower for people with HIV (PWH) and lower for prevalent than incident infection. Among MSM, increasing age was associated with lower clearance of prevalent, but not incident, HPV-16 infection., Conclusions: This robust and unifying analysis of anal hrHPV natural history is essential to designing and predicting the impact of HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening programs on anal cancer prevention, particularly in MSM and PWH. Importantly, it demonstrates the higher carcinogenic potential of longstanding anal prevalent hrHPV infection than more recent incident infection., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. A. R. G. received support from Merck & Co and Moderna, outside the submitted work, and reports consulting fees from Merck & Co. G. D. received support to her institution from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) for this work. N. A. H. received a grant to her institution from NIH for this work. M. F. S. v. d. L. has served on an advisory board for Merck & Co. K. N. received a Miguel Servet II senior researcher grant contract (CPII18/00033) from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Madrid, Spain), outside the submitted work. J. B. received financial compensation for lectures, consultancy work, educational activities from Gilead Sciences, Janssen-Cilag, Merck Sharp & Dohme, and ViiV Healthcare and received support for attending meetings from Gilead Sciences, outside the submitted work. M. L. G. received support from National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research for and outside the submitted work; has received research funding from Genocea Biosciences, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Genentech, Kur, Cullinan Labs, and Agenus; served as a consultant for Istari Oncology, LLX Solutions, Kura Oncology, Mirati Therapeutics, BioNtech, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Bicara Therapeutics, Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceutics, Genocea Biosciences, Shattucks Labs, EMD Serono, Debiopharm, Merck & Co, Ipsen Biopharmaceuticals, Gilead Sciences, and Coherus; served a speaker/preceptorship role for OncLive and Roche Scientific; received support for attending meetings from American Association for Cancer Research (AACR); has an issued patent as sponsor-investigator for pNGVL4a-Sig/E7(detox)/HSP70 plasmid DNA for a clinical protocol entitled “An open-label phase one study of the safety with stage III or IV HPV16-positive head and neck squamous cell carcinoma”; has pending patents for “Oral HPV infection detection for oral cancer screening and diagnosis” and “HPV mRNA detection on oral cytology specimens for diagnosis and screening for oral cancer”; served on advisory committees for Seagen, Sensei Biotherapeutics, SQZBiotech, BioMimetix and Kura; and has stock options for Sensei. A. G. N. received grants from National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and the National Cancer Institute (NCI), NIH, and Merck & Co, awarded to his institution and related to the submitted work; received grants from NCI, NIH, awarded to his institution, outside the submitted work; received support for attending meetings (payment for hotel at conference) from the European Research Organisation on Genital Infection and Neoplasia; and received donated swabs and vials for research from COPAN Diagnostics. R. G. N. received funding from NCI, NIH (grant K07CA225403), paid to her institution. E. Y. received to her institution, for this work, in support from subawards from amfAR, The Foundation for AIDS Research (grants 108520-52-IGTA and 108893-55-IPTA), with funds provided by Life Ball and Verein Aids Life (AIDS LIFE). The Asia Pacific HIV Research Collaboration is an initiative of TREAT Asia, a program of amfAR, The Foundation for AIDS Research, with support from the NIAID, NIH, as part of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). These subgrants were supported with funds provided by NIH cooperative agreement 5U01AI0699007-07 and a supplement to NIH cooperative agreement 5U01AI0699007-08. J. M. M. received research grants from Gilead to his institution for the present work and personal consulting fees from Gilead, Merck & Co, and ViiV. JJO received funds both to himself and to his institution from Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, outside the submitted work; served as Board Director of Australian Society of HIV, viral hepatitis and sexual heath medicine (ASHM), Australian Federation of AIDS Organizations (AFAO). N. S. received personal consulting fees from ViiV Healthcare and honoraria from Gilead Sciences. D. J. W. received funding from the NCI, NIH (R01CA169508-01A1 [principal investigator (PI), D. J. W.] and 5UM1AI035043-23 (PI, G. D.; site PI, D. J. W.; both studies: data collection, specimen processing, laboratory tests). J. M. P. reports grants or contracts paid to the institution from Merck and Co, outside the submitted work; consulting fees paid to self from Vir Biotechnologies and Antiva Biosciences; payment or honoraria from Merck and Co; support for attending meetings and/or travel paid to self from Merck and Co; and stock or stock options from Virion Therapeutics and Vir Biotechnology. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. 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Background: Dengue is a neglected tropical disease, for which no therapeutic agents have shown clinical efficacy to date. Clinical trials have used strikingly variable clinical endpoints, which hampers reproducibility and comparability of findings. We investigated a delta modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (delta mSOFA) score as a uniform composite clinical endpoint for use in clinical trials investigating therapeutics for moderate and severe dengue., Methods: We developed a modified SOFA score for dengue, measured and evaluated its performance at baseline and 48 h after enrolment in a prospective observational cohort of 124 adults admitted to a tertiary referral hospital in Vietnam with dengue shock. The modified SOFA score included pulse pressure in the cardiovascular component. Binary logistic regression, cox proportional hazard and linear regression models were used to estimate association between mSOFA, delta mSOFA and clinical outcomes., Results: The analysis included 124 adults with dengue shock. 29 (23.4%) patients required ICU admission for organ support or due to persistent haemodynamic instability: 9/124 (7.3%) required mechanical ventilation, 8/124 (6.5%) required vasopressors, 6/124 (4.8%) required haemofiltration and 5/124 (4.0%) patients died. In univariate analyses, higher baseline and delta (48 h) mSOFA score for dengue were associated with admission to ICU, requirement for organ support and mortality, duration of ICU and hospital admission and IV fluid use., Conclusions: The baseline and delta mSOFA scores for dengue performed well to discriminate patients with dengue shock by clinical outcomes, including duration of ICU and hospital admission, requirement for organ support and death. We plan to use delta mSOFA as the primary endpoint in an upcoming host-directed therapeutic trial and investigate the performance of this score in other phenotypes of severe dengue in adults and children., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

TBM is the most severe form of tuberculosis. Clinical trial data are required to provide an evidence base for adjunctive dexamethasone in HIV-positive individuals with TBM, and to guide clinical practice. This document details the planned analyses at 12 months post randomisation for the ACT HIV clinical trial (NCT03092817); 'a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of adjunctive dexamethasone for the treatment of HIV co-infected adults with tuberculous meningitis (TBM)'. The primary endpoint of the ACT HIV trial is death (from any cause) over the first 12 months after randomisation. This statistical analysis plan expands upon and updates the analysis plan outlined in the published study protocol., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2022 Donovan J et al.)

Background: An endotracheal tube cuff pressure between 20 and 30 cmH2O is recommended to prevent ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI). We aimed to evaluate whether continuous cuff pressure control (CPC) was associated with reduced VARI incidence compared with intermittent CPC., Methods: We conducted a multicenter open-label randomized controlled trial in intensive care unit (ICU) patients within 24 hours of intubation in Vietnam. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either continuous CPC using an automated electronic device or intermittent CPC using a manually hand-held manometer. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of VARI, evaluated by an independent reviewer blinded to the CPC allocation., Results: We randomized 600 patients; 597 received the intervention or control and were included in the intention to treat analysis. Compared with intermittent CPC, continuous CPC did not reduce the proportion of patients with at least one episode of VARI (74/296 [25%] vs 69/301 [23%]; odds ratio [OR] 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] .77-1.67]. There were no significant differences between continuous and intermittent CPC concerning the proportion of microbiologically confirmed VARI (OR 1.40; 95% CI .94-2.10), the proportion of intubated days without antimicrobials (relative proportion [RP] 0.99; 95% CI .87-1.12), rate of ICU discharge (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR] 0.95; 95% CI .78-1.16), cost of ICU stay (difference in transformed mean [DTM] 0.02; 95% CI -.05 to .08], cost of ICU antimicrobials (DTM 0.02; 95% CI -.25 to .28), cost of hospital stay (DTM 0.02; 95% CI -.04 to .08), and ICU mortality risk (OR 0.96; 95% CI .67-1.38)., Conclusions: Maintaining CPC through an automated electronic device did not reduce VARI incidence., Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02966392., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Objectives: To investigate phenotypic antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in relation to antimicrobial use (AMU) and potential inter-species transmission among Escherichia coli from humans and chickens located in the same households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam., Methods: We collected data on AMU and faecal swabs from humans ( N  = 426) and chickens ( N  = 237) from 237 small-scale farms. From each sample, one E. coli strain was isolated and tested for its susceptibility against 11 antimicrobials by Sensititre AST. The association between AMR and AMU was investigated by logistic regression modelling. Using randomization, we compared the degree of similarity in AMR patterns between human and chicken E. coli from the same farms compared with isolates from different farms., Results: The AMU rate was ∼19 times higher in chickens (291.1 per 1000 chicken-days) than in humans (15.1 per 1000 person-days). Isolates from chickens also displayed a higher prevalence of multidrug resistance (63.3%) than those of human origin (55.1%). AMU increased the probability of resistance in isolates from human (ORs between 2.1 and 5.3) and chicken (ORs between 1.9 and 4.8). E. coli from humans and chickens living on same farms had a higher degree of similarity in their AMR patterns than isolates from humans and chicken living on different farms., Conclusions: We demonstrated the co-influence of AMU and potential transmission on observed phenotypic AMR patterns among E. coli isolates from food-producing animals and in-contact humans. Restricting unnecessary AMU alongside limiting interspecies contact (i.e. increasing hygiene and biocontainment) are essential for reducing the burden of AMR., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Background: Vietnam has one of the greatest disease burdens from chronic viral hepatitis. Comprehensive prevalence data are essential to support its elimination as a public health threat., Methods: We searched Medline and Embase from 1990 to 2021 for seroprevalence data relating to Hepatitis B (HBV), C (HCV) and D (HDV) in Vietnam. We estimated pooled prevalence with a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model and stratified study populations into i) low-risk ii) high-risk exposure and iii) liver disease. We further estimated prevalence by decade and region and rates of HIV-coinfection., Findings: We analysed 72 studies, including 120 HBV, 114 HCV and 23 HDV study populations. Pooled HBV prevalence was low in blood donors (1.86% [1.82-1.90]) but high in antenatal populations (10.8% [10.1-11.6]) and adults in the general population (10.5% [10.0-11.0]). It was similar or modestly increased in groups at highest risk of exposure, suggesting the epidemic is largely driven by chronic infections acquired in childhood. HCV pooled prevalence in the general population was lower than historical estimates: 0.26% (0.09-0.51) have active infection defined by detectable antigen or HCV RNA. In contrast, there is an extremely high prevalence of active HCV infection in people who inject drugs (PWID) (57.8% [56.5-59.1]), which has persisted through the decades despite harm-reduction interventions. HDV appears mainly confined to high-risk groups., Interpretation: Blood safety has improved, but renewed focus on HBV vaccination at birth and targeted HCV screening and treatment of PWID are urgently required to meet elimination targets. Large cross-sectional studies are needed to better characterize HDV prevalence, but mass screening may not be warranted., Funding: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors., Competing Interests: No conflicts declared, (© 2022 The Authors.)

Background: Infection with measles virus (MeV) causes immunosuppression and increased susceptibility to other infectious diseases. Only few studies reported a duration of immunosuppression, with varying results. We investigated the effect of immunosuppression on the incidence of hospital admissions for infectious diseases in Vietnamese children., Methods: We used retrospective data (2005 to 2015; N = 4419) from the two pediatric hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We compared the age-specific incidence of hospital admission for infectious diseases before and after hospitalization for measles. We fitted a Poisson regression model that included gender, current age, and time since measles to obtain a multiplicative effect measure. Estimates were transformed to the additive scale., Results: We observed two phases in the incidence of hospital admission after measles. The first phase started with a fourfold increased rate of admissions during the first month after measles, dropping to a level quite comparable to children of the same age before measles. In the second phase, lasting until at least 6 years after measles, the admission rate decreased further, with values up to 20 times lower than in children of the same age before measles. However, on the additive scale the effect size in the second phase was much smaller than in the first phase., Conclusion: The first phase highlights the public health benefits of measles vaccination by preventing measles and immune amnesia. The beneficial second phase is interesting, but its strength strongly depends on the scale. It suggests a complicated interaction between MeV infection and the host immunity., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

TBM is the most severe form of tuberculosis. Clinical trial data are required to provide an evidence base for adjunctive dexamethasone in HIV-positive individuals with TBM, and to guide clinical practice. This document details the planned analyses at 12 months post randomisation for the ACT HIV clinical trial (NCT03092817); 'a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of adjunctive dexamethasone for the treatment of HIV co-infected adults with tuberculous meningitis (TBM)'. The primary endpoint of the ACT HIV trial is death (from any cause) over the first 12 months after randomisation. This statistical analysis plan expands upon and updates the analysis plan outlined in the published study protocol., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2021 Donovan J et al.)

Background: Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD)., Methods: We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included., Results: On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults., Conclusions: Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients., Funding: This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation., Competing Interests: NV, PL, HD, NN, DT, KD, NC, NC, EP, CS, KR, DB, NA, CH, PO No competing interests declared, DM reports receiving personal fees from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 215010/Z/18/Z), during the conduct of the study. LL reports receiving personal fees from ROCHE Advisory Board on Severe Dengue. TJ reports receiving personal fees as members of the ROCHE Advisory Board on Severe Dengue, outside the submitted work. BW reports personal fees as a member of the Data Monitoring and Adjudication Committees for the Takeda dengue vaccine trials and as a member of the ROCHE Advisory Board on Severe Dengue, outside the submitted work. RG reports receiving personal fees from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 106680/Z/14/Z), during the conduct of the study. SY reports receiving personal fees as a member of the ROCHE Advisory Board on Severe Dengue, for work on Janssen Pharmaceuticals Advisory Board for Dengue Antiviral Development, and from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 106680/Z/14/Z)., (© 2021, Vuong et al.)

Background: One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory., Methods: Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment., Results: Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook., Conclusions: Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)