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4. Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

Author

Yalew, Seleshi G., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Gernaat, David E. H. J., Ludwig, Fulco, Miara, Ariel, Park, Chan, Byers, Edward, De Cian, Enrica, Piontek, Franziska, Iyer, Gokul, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Glynn, James, Hejazi, Mohamad, Dessens, Olivier, Rochedo, Pedro, Pietzcker, Robert, Schaeffer, Roberto, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Dasgupta, Shouro, Mima, Silvana, da Silva, Silvia R. Santos, Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Vautard, Robert, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2020
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6. Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter

Author

Jewell, Jessica, Emmerling, Johannes, Vinichenko, Vadim, Bertram, Christoph, Berger, Loïc, Daly, Hannah E., Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Fragkiadakis, Kostas, McCollum, David, Paroussas, Leonidas, Riahi, Keywan, Tavoni, Massimo, and van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2020
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9. Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

Author

Jewell, Jessica, McCollum, David, Emmerling, Johannes, Bertram, Christoph, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Berger, Loc, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Keppo, Ilkka, Saadi, Nawfal, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vinichenko, Vadim, and Riahi, Keywan

Subjects
Control, Government finance, Environmental aspects, Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects -- Government finance, Emissions (Pollution) -- Control
Abstract

Author(s): Jessica Jewell (corresponding author) [1, 2]; David McCollum [1, 3]; Johannes Emmerling [4, 5]; Christoph Bertram [6]; David E. H. J. Gernaat [7, 8]; Volker Krey [1]; Leonidas Paroussos [...]

Published
2018
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14. Global resource potential of seasonal pumped hydropower storage for energy and water storage

Author

Hunt, Julian D, Byers, Edward, Wada, Yoshihide, Parkinson, Simon, Gernaat, David E H J, Langan, Simon, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Riahi, Keywan, Hunt, Julian D, Byers, Edward, Wada, Yoshihide, Parkinson, Simon, Gernaat, David E H J, Langan, Simon, van Vuuren, Detlef P, and Riahi, Keywan

Abstract

Seasonal mismatches between electricity supply and demand is increasing due to expanded use of wind, solar and hydropower resources, which in turn raises the interest on low-cost seasonal energy storage options. Seasonal pumped hydropower storage (SPHS) can provide long-term energy storage at a relatively low-cost and co-benefits in the form of freshwater storage capacity. We present the first estimate of the global assessment of SPHS potential, using a novel plant-siting methodology based on high-resolution topographical and hydrological data. Here we show that SPHS costs vary from 0.007 to 0.2 US$ m-1 of water stored, 1.8 to 50 US$ MWh-1 of energy stored and 370 to 600 US$ kW-1 of installed power generation. This potential is unevenly distributed with mountainous regions demonstrating significantly more potential. The estimated world energy storage capacity below a cost of 50 US$ MWh-1 is 17.3 PWh, approximately 79% of the world electricity consumption in 2017.

Published
2020

15. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs

Author

Doelman, Jonathan C, Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Tabeau, Andrzej, Hof, Andries F, Braakhekke, Maarten C, Gernaat, David E H J, van den Berg, Maarten, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Daioglou, Vassilis, van Meijl, Hans, Lucas, Paul, Doelman, Jonathan C, Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Tabeau, Andrzej, Hof, Andries F, Braakhekke, Maarten C, Gernaat, David E H J, van den Berg, Maarten, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Daioglou, Vassilis, van Meijl, Hans, and Lucas, Paul

Abstract

Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here, we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2 /yr at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2,100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.

Published
2020

16. The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Author

Environmental Sciences, Harmsen, Mathijs, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Chateau, Jean, Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Hanaoka, Tatsuya, Hilaire, Jérôme, Keramidas, Kimon, Luderer, Gunnar, Moura, Maria Cecilia P., Sano, Fuminori, Smith, Steven J., Wada, Kenichi, Environmental Sciences, Harmsen, Mathijs, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Chateau, Jean, Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Hanaoka, Tatsuya, Hilaire, Jérôme, Keramidas, Kimon, Luderer, Gunnar, Moura, Maria Cecilia P., Sano, Fuminori, Smith, Steven J., and Wada, Kenichi

Published
2020

17. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs

Author

Environmental Sciences, Energy System Analysis, Doelman, Jonathan C, Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Tabeau, Andrzej, Hof, Andries F, Braakhekke, Maarten C, Gernaat, David E H J, van den Berg, Maarten, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Daioglou, Vassilis, van Meijl, Hans, Lucas, Paul, Environmental Sciences, Energy System Analysis, Doelman, Jonathan C, Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Tabeau, Andrzej, Hof, Andries F, Braakhekke, Maarten C, Gernaat, David E H J, van den Berg, Maarten, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Daioglou, Vassilis, van Meijl, Hans, and Lucas, Paul

Published
2020

18. Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter

Author

Environmental Sciences, Jewell, Jessica, Emmerling, Johannes, Vinichenko, Vadim, Bertram, Christoph, Berger, Loïc, Daly, Hannah E., Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Fragkiadakis, Kostas, McCollum, David, Paroussas, Leonidas, Riahi, Keywan, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Environmental Sciences, Jewell, Jessica, Emmerling, Johannes, Vinichenko, Vadim, Bertram, Christoph, Berger, Loïc, Daly, Hannah E., Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Fragkiadakis, Kostas, McCollum, David, Paroussas, Leonidas, Riahi, Keywan, Tavoni, Massimo, and van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2020

20. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade‐offs

Author

Doelman, Jonathan C., primary, Stehfest, Elke, additional, Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, Tabeau, Andrzej, additional, Hof, Andries F., additional, Braakhekke, Maarten C., additional, Gernaat, David E. H. J., additional, Berg, Maarten, additional, Zeist, Willem‐Jan, additional, Daioglou, Vassilis, additional, Meijl, Hans, additional, and Lucas, Paul L., additional

Published
2019
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21. The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Author

Harmsen, Mathijs, primary, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, additional, Chateau, Jean, additional, Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Fricko, Oliver, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Gernaat, David E. H. J., additional, Hanaoka, Tatsuya, additional, Hilaire, Jérôme, additional, Keramidas, Kimon, additional, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Moura, Maria Cecilia P., additional, Sano, Fuminori, additional, Smith, Steven J., additional, and Wada, Kenichi, additional

Published
2019
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22. Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food–energy–water nexus

Author

Environmental Sciences, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bijl, David L., Bogaart, Patrick, Stehfest, Elke, Biemans, Hester, Dekker, Stefan C., Doelman, Jonathan C., Gernaat, David E. H. J., Harmsen, Mathijs, Environmental Sciences, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bijl, David L., Bogaart, Patrick, Stehfest, Elke, Biemans, Hester, Dekker, Stefan C., Doelman, Jonathan C., Gernaat, David E. H. J., and Harmsen, Mathijs

Published
2019

23. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade‐offs.

Author

Doelman, Jonathan C., Stehfest, Elke, Vuuren, Detlef P., Tabeau, Andrzej, Hof, Andries F., Braakhekke, Maarten C., Gernaat, David E. H. J., Berg, Maarten, Zeist, Willem‐Jan, Daioglou, Vassilis, Meijl, Hans, and Lucas, Paul L.

Subjects
AFFORESTATION, CLIMATE change mitigation, FOOD prices, CLIMATE change, INVESTMENT risk
Abstract

Afforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2/year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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25. Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

Author

Environmental Sciences, Jewell, Jessica, McCollum, David, Emmerling, Johannes, Bertram, Christoph, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Berger, Loïc, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Keppo, Ilkka, Saadi, Nawfal, Tavoni, Massimo, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Vinichenko, Vadim, Riahi, Keywan, Environmental Sciences, Jewell, Jessica, McCollum, David, Emmerling, Johannes, Bertram, Christoph, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Berger, Loïc, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Keppo, Ilkka, Saadi, Nawfal, Tavoni, Massimo, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Vinichenko, Vadim, and Riahi, Keywan

Published
2018

26. Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies

Author

Environmental Sciences, Energy and Resources, Energy System Analysis, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Stehfest, Elke, Gernaat, David E. H. J., van den Berg, Maarten, Bijl, David L., de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Daioglou, Vassilis, Doelman, Jonathan C., Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Harmsen, Mathijs, Hof, Andries F., van Sluisveld, Mariësse A. E., Environmental Sciences, Energy and Resources, Energy System Analysis, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Stehfest, Elke, Gernaat, David E. H. J., van den Berg, Maarten, Bijl, David L., de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Daioglou, Vassilis, Doelman, Jonathan C., Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Harmsen, Mathijs, Hof, Andries F., and van Sluisveld, Mariësse A. E.

Published
2018

28. Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation

Author

Köberle, Alexandre C., Gernaat, David E H J, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Renewable energy, Photovoltaic, PV, Energy(all), Land use, Taverne, Energy modeling, Concentrated solar power, CSP, Pollution
Abstract

CSP and PV technologies represent energy sources with large potentials. We present cost-supply curves for both technologies using a consistent methodology for 26 regions, based on geoexplicit information on solar radiation, land cover type and slope, exploring individual potential and interdependencies. For present day, both CSP and PV supply curves start at $0.18/kWh, in North Africa, South America, and Australia. Applying accepted learning rates to official capacity targets, we project prices to drop to $0.11/kWh for both technologies by 2050. In an alternative "fast-learning" scenario, generation costs drop to $0.06-0.07/kWh for CSP, and $0.09/kWh for PV. Competition between them for best areas is explored along with sensitivities of their techno-economic potentials to land use restrictions and land cover type. CSP was found to be more competitive in desert sites with highest direct solar radiation. PV was a clear winner in humid tropical regions, and temperate northern hemisphere. Elsewhere, no clear winner emerged, highlighting the importance of competition in assessments of potentials. Our results show there is ample potential globally for both technologies even accounting for land use restrictions, but stronger support for RD&D and higher investments are needed to make CSP and PV cost-competitive with established power technologies by 2050.

Published
2015

29. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

Author

Gernaat, David E H J, Calvin, Katherine, Lucas, Paul L., Luderer, Gunnar, Otto, Sander A C, Rao, Shilpa, Strefler, Jessica, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Monitoring, Meteorology, Deep mitigation scenarios, Geography, Planning and Development, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Climate policy, Non-CO2 emissions, Methane (CH4), Methane, chemistry.chemical_compound, Environmental protection, Taverne, Planning and Development, Global and Planetary Change, Policy and Law, Geography, Ecology, Climate policy strategies, Radiative forcing, Management, chemistry, Greenhouse gas, Carbon dioxide, Fluorinated gasses (F-gas), Environmental science, Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Abstract

In 2010, the combined emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) accounted for 20-30% of Kyoto emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. Current scenario studies conclude that in order to reach deep climate targets (radiative forcing of 2.8W/m2) in 2100, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will need to be reduced to zero or negative. However, studies indicated that non-CO2 emissions seem to be have less mitigation potential. To support effective climate policy strategies, an in-depth assessment was made of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission and their sources in achieving an ambitious climate target. Emission scenarios were assessed that had been produced by six integrated assessments models, which contributed to the scenario database for the fifth IPCC report. All model scenarios reduced emissions from energy-related sectors, largely resulting from structural changes and end-of-pipe abatement technologies. However, emission reductions were much less in the agricultural sectors. Furthermore, there were considerable differences in abatement potential between the model scenarios, and most notably in the agricultural sectors. The paper shows that better exploration of long-term abatement potential of non-CO2 emissions is critical for the feasibility of deep climate targets.

Published
2015

30. Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

Author

Gernaat, David E H J, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Van Vliet, Jasper, Sullivan, Patrick, Arent, Douglas J., Environmental Sciences, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Engineering, Cost estimate, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Modelling, Supply and demand, Energy(all), Sea breeze, Taverne, Integrated assessment model, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Baseline (configuration management), Offshore wind, Civil and Structural Engineering, Wind power, business.industry, Mechanical Engineering, Building and Construction, Environmental economics, Pollution, Renewable energy, Offshore wind power, General Energy, Electricity generation, Renewables, business, Marine engineering
Abstract

Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the potential suitable for inclusion in global integrated assessment models. For this, we combine available data on resource potential and cost estimates to estimate regional and global characteristics of offshore wind electricity generation. We find that for 2050, a baseline scenario would include about 4% of the total electricity production based on offshore wind. The findings also show that in most regions, technical potential is not a limiting factor. In some regions, that have a seriously constrained resource base for onshore wind, offshore wind could provide a key source of renewable energy, including South-East Asia, Indonesia and Brazil.

Published
2014

32. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

Author

Environmental Sciences, Gernaat, David E H J, Calvin, Katherine, Lucas, Paul L., Luderer, Gunnar, Otto, Sander A C, Rao, Shilpa, Strefler, Jessica, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Gernaat, David E H J, Calvin, Katherine, Lucas, Paul L., Luderer, Gunnar, Otto, Sander A C, Rao, Shilpa, Strefler, Jessica, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2015

33. Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

Author

Environmental Sciences, Gernaat, David E H J, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Van Vliet, Jasper, Sullivan, Patrick, Arent, Douglas J., Environmental Sciences, Gernaat, David E H J, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Van Vliet, Jasper, Sullivan, Patrick, and Arent, Douglas J.

Published
2014

34. Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm

Author

van Vuuren, Detlef P., Stehfest, Elke, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Doelman, Jonathan C., Van den Berg, Maarten, Harmsen, Mathijs J.H.M., de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Bouwman, Lex F., Daioglou, Vassilis, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Girod, Bastien, Kram, Tom, Lassaletta, Luis, Lucas, Paul L., van Meijl, Hans, Müller, Christoph, van Ruijven, Bas J., van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tabeau, Andrzej

Subjects
13. Climate action, Scenarios, Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Sustainable development, 11. Sustainability, Integrated assessment, 7. Clean energy, Climate change research, 12. Responsible consumption
Abstract

This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals., Global Environmental Change, 42, ISSN:0959-3780, ISSN:1872-9495

35. A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin - The case of the upper Indus.

Author

Dhaubanjar S, Lutz AF, Gernaat DEHJ, Nepal S, Smolenaars W, Pradhananga S, Biemans H, Ludwig F, Shrestha AB, and Immerzeel WW

Abstract

Siloed-approaches may fuel the misguided development of hydropower and subsequent target-setting under the sustainable development goals (SDGs). While hydropower development in the Indus basin is vital to ensure energy security (SDG7), it needs to be balanced with water use for fulfilling food (SDG2) and water (SDG6) security. Existing methods to estimate hydropower potential generally focus on: only one class of potential, a methodological advance for either of hydropower siting, sizing, or costing of one site, or the ranking of a portfolio of projects. A majority of them fall short in addressing sustainability. Hence, we develop a systematic framework for the basin-scale assessment of the sustainable hydropower potential by integrating considerations of the water-energy-food nexus, disaster risk, climate change, environmental protection, and socio-economic preferences. Considering the case of the upper Indus, the framework is developed by combining advances in literature, insights from local hydropower practitioners and over 30 datasets to represent real-life challenges to sustainable hydropower development, while distinguishing between small and large plants for two run-of-river plant configurations. The framework first addresses theoretical potential and successively constrains this further by stepwise inclusion of technical, economical, and sustainability criteria to obtain the sustainable exploitable hydropower potential. We conclude that sustainable hydropower potential in complex basins such as the Indus goes far beyond the hydrological boundary conditions. Our framework enables the careful inclusion of factors beyond the status-quo technological and economic criterions to guide policymakers in hydropower development decisions in the Indus and beyond. Future work will implement the framework to quantify the different hydropower potential classes and explore adaptation pathways to balance SDG7 with the other interlinked SDGs in the Indus., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Published
2021
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