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Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree-derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so-called "paradox of stasis." To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies-which have largely been limited to birds and mammals-to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.

The release of captive-bred animals into the wild is commonly practised to restore or supplement wild populations but comes with a suite of ecological and genetic consequences. Vast numbers of hatchery-reared fish are released annually, ostensibly to restore/enhance wild populations or provide greater angling returns. While previous studies have shown that captive-bred fish perform poorly in the wild relative to wild-bred conspecifics, few have measured individual lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and how this affects population productivity. Here, we analyse data on Atlantic salmon from an intensely studied catchment into which varying numbers of captive-bred fish have escaped/been released and potentially bred over several decades. Using a molecular pedigree, we demonstrate that, on average, the LRS of captive-bred individuals was only 36% that of wild-bred individuals. A significant LRS difference remained after excluding individuals that left no surviving offspring, some of which might have simply failed to spawn, consistent with transgenerational effects on offspring survival. The annual productivity of the mixed population (wild-bred plus captive-bred) was lower in years where captive-bred fish comprised a greater fraction of potential spawners. These results bolster previous empirical and theoretical findings that intentional stocking, or non-intentional escapees, threaten, rather than enhance, recipient natural populations.

Estimates of fish abundance from electrofishing surveys depend on accurate estimation of capture probability. We examine in this paper how estimates of capture probability and abundance of Atlantic salmon from multi-pass removal sampling can be improved by comparing the results of an experimental programme of closed electrofishing sites within selected rivers in west-central Norway, and those obtained from open electrofishing sites established for monitoring long-term juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance within the Burrishoole catchment, western Ireland. We first establish that the Carle & Strub method provides a more robust estimate of population abundance than the Zippin and Seber methods. We then show how prior information on capture probability may be used to improve the accuracy of the abundance estimate in open sites. We also show that the use of prior information with single-pass electrofishing may improve the accuracy of the abundance estimate so that it is comparable with that of multi-pass electrofishing in terms of stock prediction while requiring less sampling effort.

This is a author-produced PDF of a 'Just in' article published in Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version 'The response of North Atlantic diadromous fish to multiple stressors including land use change: a multidecadal study Elvira de Eyto, Catherine Dalton, Mary M Dillane, Eleanor Jennings, Philip McGinnity, Barry O'Dwyer, Russell Poole, Ger G Rogan, David Taylor Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Published on the web 19 May 2016, 10.1139/cjfas-2015-0450' is available from DOI 10.1139/cjfas-2015-0450', Reduction of freshwater habitat quality due to land use change can have significant impacts on diadromous fish. Partitioning this impact from other potential drivers, such as changing marine conditions and climate, is hampered by a lack of long term datasets. Here, four decades of data were used to assess the impact of land use change on Salmo salar L. and anadromous Salmo trutta L. in the Burrishoole catchment, Ireland, one of the few index sites for diadromous fish in the North Atlantic. Land use change was found to have no significant impact on the freshwater survival of either salmon or trout. However, climate impacted significantly on the survival of salmon and trout in freshwater, with poor survival in years with wetter warmer winters, coinciding with positive North Atlantic Oscillation values. Additionally, cold springs were associated with higher survival in trout. The addition of hatchery salmon into the salmon spawning cohort coincided with low freshwater survival. Our results highlight the necessity for a broad ecosystem approach in any conservation effort of these species.

Understanding the extent, scale and genetic basis of local adaptation (LA) is important for conservation and management. Its relevance in salmonids at microgeographic scales, where dispersal (and hence potential gene flow) can be substantial, has however been questioned. Here, we compare the fitness of communally reared offspring of local and foreign Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from adjacent Irish rivers and reciprocal F1 hybrid crosses between them, in the wild ‘home’ environment of the local population. Experimental groups did not differ in wild smolt output but a catastrophic flood event may have limited our ability to detect freshwater performance differences, which were evident in a previous study. Foreign parr exhibited higher, and hybrids intermediate, emigration rates from the natal stream relative to local parr, consistent with genetically based behavioural differences. Adult return rates were lower for the foreign compared to the local group. Overall lifetime success of foreigners and hybrids relative to locals was estimated at 31% and 40% (mean of both hybrid groups), respectively. The results imply a genetic basis to fitness differences among populations separated by only 50 km, driven largely by variation in smolt to adult return rates. Hence even if supplementary stocking programs obtain broodstock from neighbouring rivers, the risk of extrinsic outbreeding depression may be high.

15 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater ('parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water ('smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes., This study is part of the Norwegian Research Council project nº 183989/S30. J.O. acknowledges additional funding from Norwegian Water and Energy Directorate (NVE).

Background: Pedigree reconstruction using genetic analysis provides a useful means to estimate fundamental population biology parameters relating to population demography, trait heritability and individual fitness when combined with other sources of data. However, there remain limitations to pedigree reconstruction in wild populations, particularly in systems where parent-offspring relationships cannot be directly observed, there is incomplete sampling of individuals, or molecular parentage inference relies on low quality DNA from archived material. While much can still be inferred from incomplete or sparse pedigrees, it is crucial to evaluate the quality and power of available genetic information a priori to testing specific biological hypotheses. Here, we used microsatellite markers to reconstruct a multi-generation pedigree of wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) using archived scale samples collected with a total trapping system within a river over a 10 year period. Using a simulation-based approach, we determined the optimal microsatellite marker number for accurate parentage assignment, and evaluated the power of the resulting partial pedigree to investigate important evolutionary and quantitative genetic characteristics of salmon in the system.Results: We show that at least 20 microsatellites (ave. 12 alleles/locus) are required to maximise parentage assignment and to improve the power to estimate reproductive success and heritability in this study system. We also show that 1.5 fold differences can be detected between groups simulated to have differing reproductive success, and that it is possible to detect moderate heritability values for continuous traits (h(2) similar to 0.40) with more than 80% power when using 28 moderately to highly polymorphic markers.Conclusion: The methodologies and work flow described provide a robust approach for evaluating archived samples for pedigree-based research, even where only a proportion of the total population is sampled. The results demonstrate the feasibility of pedigree-based studies to address challenging ecological and evolutionary questions in free-living populations, where genealogies can be traced only using molecular tools, and that significant increases in pedigree assignment power can be achieved by using higher numbers of markers.