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Traditionally, the evolution of trees and the establishment of the first forests during the Devonian (419–359 Ma) have been linked to an enhancement of terrestrial weathering processes and a subsequent reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels by one order of magnitude. However, empirical estimates of early-Devonian CO2 concentrations are sparse and carry large error bars. Here we use leaf carbon isotopes, stomata density, and stomata pore length from fossilized lycophytes to estimate atmospheric CO2 levels 410–380Ma based on a mechanistic model for gas exchange calibrated using their closest modern lycophyte relatives. We find that Earth's atmosphere contained about 525–715 ppm of CO2 before the emergence of forested ecosystems, much less than previously thought. Using a coupled climate model, we show that Earth was partially glaciated at these moderate CO2 levels and that this cool climate state is in principle agreement with available climate proxies and fossil evidence for the distribution terrestrial vegetation. Finally, we use a process-based biogeochemical model to demonstrate that our results are consistent with a scenario in which enhanced weathering, climate cooling, and atmospheric oxygenation are associated with the earlier emergence of shallow-rooted vascular ecosystems rather than the appearance of the first forests.

Increased sub-shelf melting and ice discharge from the Antarctic Ice sheet has both regional and global impacts on the ocean and the overall climate system. Additional meltwater, for example, can reduce the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, potentially affecting the global thermohaline circulation. Similarly, increased input of fresh and cold water around the Antarctic margin can lead to a stronger stratification of coastal waters, and a potential increase in sea-ice formation, trapping warmer water masses below the surface, which in turn can lead to increased basal melting of the ice shelves.So far these processes have mainly been analysed in simple unidirectional cause-and-effect experiments, possibly neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. To study the long-term and global effects of these interactions, we have developed a bidirectional offline coupled ice-ocean model framework. It consists of the global ocean and sea-ice model MOM5/SIS and an Antarctic instance of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model PISM, with the ice-shelf cavity module PICO representing the ice-ocean boundary layer physics. With this setup we are analysing the aforementioned interactions and feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean system on multi-millenial time scales.

Marine assemblages are expected to undergo substantial reorganization under anthropogenic climate change but some species may be better situated to track their preferred conditions. Assemblage vulnerability can thus be indicated by the thermal niches of its component species. However, the link between this vulnerability and extinction risk of its species is unclear and cannot yet be tested with modern species since widespread climate-driven extinctions are not yet manifest. To address this gap, we inferred fossil species’ thermal niches based on observed distributions on paleoclimate maps over the hyperthermal pulses of the Late Pliensbachian to Early Toarcian. We tested whether species extirpated from fossil invertebrate assemblages after warming, alongside those species that went extinct, were most likely from the pool of species that could not maintain upper thermal safety margins, in contrast to assemblage immigrants. The fossil record has the potential to reveal unique information about natural system responses to climate change. We discuss how much can it tell us about marine ectotherm vulnerability to extinction under climate change.

Global warming has been implicated as a trigger of mass extinctions in the past. Although species track their thermal niches as isotherms move poleward, systematic changes in the area of habitable space (i.e., their thermal habitat) are expected to influence their extinction risk. Quantifying thermal habitat changes is difficult in the geological past, where information about geography and the distributions of species are highly incomplete. We therefore present a formalized model of thermal habitat change, resulting from the interaction of spherical geometry, thermal niche preference, latitudinal temperature profile, and global temperature change. Our results suggest an overall decrease in available thermal habitat during global warming. Thermal habitat is lost primarily from lower latitude and polar areas, whereas temperate areas are less affected. Although patterns of extinction are ultimately dependent on the geography of available habitat space, the extent to which species occupy their thermal niches, additional abiotic parameters, and biotic interactions, our simple theoretical model provides the basic expectation for spatial patterns of habitat loss, and therefore potentially species loss, during global warming.

The Cryogenian period (720–635 million years ago) in the Neoproterozoic era featured two phases of global or near-global ice cover, termed ‘Snowball Earth’. Climate models of all kinds indicate that the inception of these phases must have occurred in the course of a self-amplifying ice–albedo feedback that forced the climate from a partially ice-covered to a Snowball state within a few years or decades. The maximum concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) allowing such a drastic shift is difficult to determine because it depends on the choice of model and the boundary conditions prescribed in the model. Many previous studies report values or ranges for this CO2 threshold but typically test only very few different boundary conditions. Furthermore, most studies include some kind of variability internal to the climate system but exclude variability due to volcanism. Here we present a comprehensive sensitivity study considering different scenarios for the Cryogenian continental configuration, orbital geometry, and short-term volcanic cooling effects in a consistent model framework, using the climate model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α. The continental configurations comprise palaeogeography reconstructions for both Snowball-Earth periods from two different sources, as well as two idealised configurations with either uniformly dispersed continents or a single polar supercontinent. Orbital geometries are sampled as multiple different combinations of the parameters obliquity, eccentricity, and argument of perihelion. For volcanic eruptions, we differentiate between single and globally homogeneous perturbations, single and zonally resolved perturbations, and random sequences of globally homogeneous perturbations with realistic statistics. The CO2 threshold lies between 10 and 250 ppm for all simulations. While the idealized continental configurations span a difference of around 200 ppm for the threshold, the continental reconstructions differ by only 20–40 ppm. Changes in orbital geometry account for variations in the CO2 threshold by up to 32 ppm. The effects of volcanic perturbations largely depend on the orbital geometry. A very large peak reduction of net solar radiation by around –20 W/m2 can shift the CO2 threshold by the same order of magnitude as the orbital geometry. Even larger eruptions of up to –40 W/m2 may shift the threshold by up to 50 ppm. However, the smaller, more frequent eruptions mostly have much lower impacts than the changes in continental configuration and orbital geometry. Eruptions near the equator tend to, but do not always, cause larger shifts than eruptions at high latitudes. Realistic sequences of eruptions lower the long-term temperature and have a bigger effect on the CO2 threshold than single large eruptions of comparable magnitude.

Monsoon systems are transporting water vapour and energy across the globe, making them a central component of the global circulation system. Changes in different forcing parameters have the potential to fundamentally change the monsoon characteristics as indicated in various paleoclimatic records. Here, we use the Atmosphere Model version 2 developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-AM2) and couple it with a slab ocean to analyse the monsoon's sensitivity to changes in different forcing parameters on a planet with idealized topography. This Monsoon Planet concept of an Aquaplanet with a broad zonal land stripe allows to reduce the influence of topography and to access the relevant meridional monsoon dynamics. In the simulations that enable monsoon dynamics, a bimodal rainfall distribution develops during the monsoon months with one maximum over the tropical ocean and the other one over land. The intensity and expansion of the land monsoon depends on the relative height of a local maximum in the surface pressure field that is acting as a barrier and determines the landward moisture transport. This dynamic is emerging during the course of one year, but also occurs when varying different parameters in a sensitivity analysis (slab ocean depth, sulfate aerosols, carbon dioxide, solar constant, land albedo). This structure of a bimodal rainfall distribution and a pressure-barrier located between the two maxima is also present in the Westafrican monsoon.

Orbital cyclicity is a fundamental pacemaker of Earth's climate system. The Newark-Hartford Basin (NHB) lake sediment record of eastern North America contains compelling geologic expressions of this cyclicity, reflecting variations of climatic conditions in tropical Pangea during the Late Triassic and earliest Jurassic (~233 to 199 Ma). Climate modeling enables a deeper mechanistic understanding of Earth system modulation during this unique greenhouse and supercontinent period. We link major features of the NHB record to the combined climatic effects of orbital forcing, paleogeographic changes, and atmospheric

The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes through Earth's history, most notably because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO2 concentration is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective but also constitutes an important prerequisite for understanding past Snowball Earth episodes, as well as the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Earlier studies are limited to investigations with very simple climate models for Earth's entire history or studies of individual time slices carried out with a variety of more complex models and for different boundary conditions, making comparisons and the identification of secular changes difficult. Here, we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity to trace the Snowball bifurcation of an aquaplanet through Earth's history in one consistent model framework. We find that the critical CO2 concentration decreased more or less logarithmically with increasing solar luminosity until about 1 billion years ago but dropped faster in more recent times. Furthermore, there was a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the critical state about 1.2 billion years ago (unrelated to the downturn in critical CO2 values), driven by the interplay of wind-driven sea-ice dynamics and the surface energy balance: for critical states at low solar luminosities, the ice line lies in the Ferrel cell, stabilised by the poleward winds despite moderate meridional temperature gradients under strong greenhouse warming. For critical states at high solar luminosities, on the other hand, the ice line rests at the Hadley cell boundary, stabilised against the equatorward winds by steep meridional temperature gradients resulting from the increased solar energy input at lower latitudes and stronger Ekman transport in the ocean., Earth System Dynamics, 14 (3), ISSN:2190-4987, ISSN:2190-4979

Orbital cyclicity is a fundamental pacemaker of Earth’s climate system. The Newark–Hartford Basin (NHB) lake sediment record of eastern North America contains compelling geologic expressions of this cyclicity, reflecting variations of climatic conditions in tropical Pangea during the Late Triassic and earliest Jurassic (~233 to 199 Ma). Climate modeling enables a deeper mechanistic understanding of Earth system modulation during this unique greenhouse and supercontinent period. We link major features of the NHB record to the combined climatic effects of orbital forcing, paleogeographic changes, and atmospheric p CO 2 variations. An ensemble of transient, orbitally driven climate simulations is assessed for nine time slices, three atmospheric p CO 2 values, and two paleogeographic reconstructions. Climatic transitions from tropical humid to more seasonal and ultimately semiarid are associated with tectonic drift of the NHB from ~ 5 ° N to 20 ° N . The modeled orbital modulation of the precipitation–evaporation balance is most pronounced during the 220 to 200 Ma interval, whereas it is limited by weak seasonality and increasing aridity before and after this interval. Lower p CO 2 at around 205 Ma contributes to drier climates and could have led to the observed damping of sediment cyclicity. Eccentricity-modulated precession dominates the orbitally driven climate response in the NHB region. High obliquity further amplifies summer precipitation through the seasonal shifts in the tropical rainfall belt. Regions with other proxy records are also assessed, providing guidance toward an integrated picture of global astronomical climate forcing in the Late Triassic and ultimately of other periods in Earth history.

Chamberlin and Salisbury's assessment of the Permian a century ago captured the essence of the period: it is an interval of extremes yet one sufficiently recent to have affected a biosphere with near-modern complexity. The events of the Permian – the orogenic episodes, massive biospheric turnovers, both icehouse and greenhouse antitheses, and Mars-analog lithofacies – boggle the imagination and present us with great opportunities to explore Earth system behavior. The ICDP-funded workshops dubbed “Deep Dust,” held in Oklahoma (USA) in March 2019 (67 participants from nine countries) and Paris (France) in January 2020 (33 participants from eight countries), focused on clarifying the scientific drivers and key sites for coring continuous sections of Permian continental (loess, lacustrine, and associated) strata that preserve high-resolution records. Combined, the two workshops hosted a total of 91 participants representing 14 countries, with broad expertise. Discussions at Deep Dust 1.0 (USA) focused on the primary research questions of paleoclimate, paleoenvironments, and paleoecology of icehouse collapse and the run-up to the Great Dying and both the modern and Permian deep microbial biosphere. Auxiliary science topics included tectonics, induced seismicity, geothermal energy, and planetary science. Deep Dust 1.0 also addressed site selection as well as scientific approaches, logistical challenges, and broader impacts and included a mid-workshop field trip to view the Permian of Oklahoma. Deep Dust 2.0 focused specifically on honing the European target. The Anadarko Basin (Oklahoma) and Paris Basin (France) represent the most promising initial targets to capture complete or near-complete stratigraphic coverage through continental successions that serve as reference points for western and eastern equatorial Pangaea.

Increased sub-shelf melting and ice discharge from the Antarctic Ice sheet has both regional and global impacts on the ocean and the overall climate system. Additional meltwater, for example, can reduce the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, potentially affecting the global thermohaline circulation. Similarly, increased input of fresh and cold water around the Antarctic margin can lead to a stronger stratification of coastal waters, and a potential increase in sea-ice formation, trapping warmer water masses below the surface, which in turn can lead to increased basal melting of the ice shelves.So far these processes have mainly been analysed in simple unidirectional cause-and-effect experiments, possibly neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. To study the long-term and global effects of these interactions, we have developed a bidirectional offline coupled ice-ocean model framework. It consists of the global ocean and sea-ice model MOM5/SIS and an Antarctic instance of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model PISM, with the ice-shelf cavity module PICO representing the ice-ocean boundary layer physics. With this setup we are analysing the aforementioned interactions and feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean system on multi-millenial time scales.

The emergence of forests on Earth (~385 million years ago, Ma)

Obwohl noch viele spannende Fragen offen sind, hat die Erforschung der Klimageschichte der Erde in den letzten Jahrzehnten erhebliche Fortschritte gemacht. Diese bemerkenswerten Erfolge beruhen zum einen auf der Erschließung neuer Klimaarchive sowie auf der Entwicklung innovativer Methoden zu deren Auswertung, zum anderen aber auch auf einem verstärkten Interesse, das Klima vergangener Zeiten mit Hilfe verbesserter numerischer Modelle zu untersuchen. In meinem Überblicksvortrag stelle ich eine Reihe von aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen vor, die zeigen, wie die Anwendung von Klima- und Erdsystemmodellen zu neuen Erkenntnissen über Ursache und Wirkung vergangener Klimaänderungen sowie über die Dynamik von warmen und kalten Paläoklimazuständen führen kann. Ein prominentes Beispiel sind unsere Forschungsarbeiten zur Klimawirkung des Meteoriteneinschlags vor 66 Millionen Jahren, der unter anderem mit dem Aussterben der Dinosaurier in Verbindung gebracht wird. Unsere Untersuchungen zeigen, dass stratosphärische Sulfat-Aerosole aus dem Einschlag zu einer lang anhaltenden Abkühlung geführt haben. Diese Abkühlung verursachte aber auch eine ausgeprägten Durchmischung der Ozeane. Die dabei an die Oberfläche gebrachten Nährstoffe – kombiniert mit Eisen aus dem Meteoritenstaub – resultierten in einer starken Düngung der marinen Biosphäre und damit in einer globalen Algenblüte nach dem Ende der Verdunkelung. Dieser neu entdeckte Effekt könnte zum Aussterben höherer Lebensformen in den Ozeanen beigetragen haben.

The Mesozoic era (∼252 to 66 million years ago) was a key interval in Earth's evolution toward its modern state, witnessing the breakup of the supercontinent Pangaea and significant biotic innovations like the early evolution of mammals. Plate tectonic dynamics drove a fundamental climatic transition from the early Mesozoic supercontinent toward the Late Cretaceous fragmented continental configuration. Here, key aspects of Mesozoic long‐term environmental changes are assessed in a climate model ensemble framework. We analyze so far the most extended ensemble of equilibrium climate states simulated for evolving Mesozoic boundary conditions covering the period from 255 to 60 Ma in 5 Myr timesteps. Global mean temperatures are generally found to be elevated above the present and exhibit a baseline warming trend driven by rising sea levels and increasing solar luminosity. Warm (Triassic and mid‐Cretaceous) and cool (Jurassic and end‐Cretaceous) anomalies result from pCO2 changes indicated by different reconstructions. Seasonal and zonal temperature contrasts as well as continental aridity show an overall decrease from the Late Triassic‐Early Jurassic to the Late Cretaceous. Meridional temperature gradients are reduced at higher global temperatures and less land area in the high latitudes. With systematic sensitivity experiments, the influence of paleogeography, sea level, vegetation patterns, pCO2, solar luminosity, and orbital configuration on these trends is investigated. For example, long‐term seasonality trends are driven by paleogeography, but orbital cycles could have had similar‐scale effects on shorter timescales. Global mean temperatures, continental humidity, and meridional temperature gradients are, however, also strongly affected by pCO2., Key Points We assess global long‐term climate trends through the Mesozoic era with an ensemble of climate model simulationsVarying carbon dioxide levels cause anomalies around an overall warming trend due to changing paleogeography and increasing insolationSeasonal and zonal temperature contrasts as well as aridity decrease with time, while meridional gradients vary with paleogeography

The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short time scales of decades to a few centuries. To study global and long term interactions, we developed a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 via the ice-shelf cavity module PICO. Since ice-shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5, but parameterized with the box model PICO, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean model to be run at resolution of 16 km and 3 degrees, respectively. We present first results from our coupled setup and discuss stability, feedbacks, and interactions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean system on millennial time scales.

The Mesozoic era (~252—66 Ma) is traditionally considered as a prolonged greenhouse period, witnessing the breakup of the Pangaean supercontinent. Orbital cycles have, for example, been invoked as drivers of e.g. Pangaean „Megamonsoon“ variability and eustatic sea level cycles in the Mesozoic.We aim to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of orbital effects on Mesozoic climates by employing the newly developed CLIMBER-X Earth System Model. Here, we primarily use its coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and vegetation modules, but also include preliminary tests with dynamic carbon cycle and ice-sheets. We present first results from a set of transient climate simulations of four Mesozoic timeslices representative for Triassic, Jurassic, Early Cretaceous and Late Cretaceous boundary conditions (e.g. paleogeography and solar luminosity). The simulations each cover ~100,000 years and are driven by changing precession, obliquity, and eccentricity.We would like to use the opportunity to discuss this approach and associated questions with the community. For example: Would changing paleogeography and climate background state have modified the response to orbital forcings? Could eustatic sea level cycles have been caused by orbitally-driven redistribution of water between the ocean and land water storages or should orbitally-forced ice sheets also have played a role in the alleged Mesozoic greenhouse? Which connections can be established to proxy records?

The terrestrial biosphere is exposed to land-use and climate change, which not only affects vegetation dynamics but also changes land–atmosphere feedbacks. Specifically, changes in land cover affect biophysical feedbacks of water and energy, thereby contributing to climate change. In this study, we couple the well-established and comprehensively validated dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL5 (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) to the coupled climate model CM2Mc, the latter of which is based on the atmosphere model AM2 and the ocean model MOM5 (Modular Ocean Model 5), and name it CM2Mc-LPJmL. In CM2Mc, we replace the simple land-surface model LaD (Land Dynamics; where vegetation is static and prescribed) with LPJmL5, and we fully couple the water and energy cycles using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Flexible Modeling System (FMS). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. These include a sub-daily cycle for calculating energy and water fluxes, conductance of the soil evaporation and plant interception, canopy-layer humidity, and the surface energy balance in order to calculate the surface and canopy-layer temperature within LPJmL5. Exchanging LaD with LPJmL5 and, therefore, switching from a static and prescribed vegetation to a dynamic vegetation allows us to model important biospheric processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling and the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation). Our results show that CM2Mc-LPJmL has similar temperature and precipitation biases to the original CM2Mc model with LaD. The performance of LPJmL5 in the coupled system compared to Earth observation data and to LPJmL offline simulation results is within acceptable error margins. The historical global mean temperature evolution of our model setup is within the range of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. The comparison of model runs with and without land-use change shows a partially warmer and drier climate state across the global land surface. CM2Mc-LPJmL opens new opportunities to investigate important biophysical vegetation–climate feedbacks with a state-of-the-art and process-based dynamic vegetation model.

The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short time scales of decades to a few centuries. We present a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 via the ice-shelf cavity module PICO. Since ice-shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5, but parameterized with the box model PICO, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean model to be run at resolution of 16 km and 3 degree, respectively. This approach makes the coupled configuration a useful tool for the analysis of interactions between the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Earth system over time spans on the order of centuries to millennia. In this study we describe the technical implementation of this coupling framework: sub-shelf melting in the ice sheet model is calculated by PICO from modeled ocean temperatures and salinities at the depth of the continental shelf and, vice versa, the resulting mass and energy fluxes from the melting at the ice-ocean interface are transferred to the ocean model. Mass and energy fluxes are shown to be conserved to machine precision across the considered model domains. The implementation is computationally efficient as it introduces only minimal overhead. The framework deals with heterogeneous spatial grid geometries, varying grid resolutions and time scales between the ice and ocean model in a generic way, and can thus be adopted to a wide range of model setups.

Among the "big five" mass-extinction events during the Phanerozoic, the end-Cretaceous extinction 66 million years ago is particularly well known because it marks the demise of the non-avian dinosaurs. Evidence for the Chicxulub impact as the primary cause of this mass extinction has been accumulating over the past four decades, but there are still many open questions regarding the detailed course of events.Building on our earlier modelling results demonstrating strong global cooling due to sulfate aerosols formed in the wake of the Chicxulub impact (Brugger, Feulner & Petri 2017, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44:419-427), we here explore the response of the ocean in more detail. Specifically, we added a marine biogeochemistry module to a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to investigate the effects of the impact on ocean geochemistry and primary productivity.We find that the formation of stratospheric sulfate aerosols leads to a marked decrease in annual global mean surface air temperatures by at least 26°C in the coldest year after the impact, returning to pre-impact temperatures after about one century. The strong surface cooling induces vigorous ocean mixing that leads to changes in oxygen distributions and nutrient availability. Due to the darkness, marine net primary productivity essentially shuts down in the first years after the impact. Once the light returns, however, we find a significant increase in primary productivity caused by a surge in nutrient availability, both due to upwelling in the ocean and delivery by the impactor. These strong perturbations of the marine biosphere further support the notion that the impact played a decisive role in the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

The Mesozoic Era (~252-66 Ma) is a decisive period in Earth’s history. It is marked by a tectonic transition from the Pangea supercontinent towards a modern continental configuration as well as the ecological success of the dinosaurs and the evolution of mammals, flowering plants, stony corals and important groups of planktic calcifiers. The Mesozoic is generally considered as a greenhouse climate period, with especially high global temperatures during the Triassic and the Late Cretaceous. Here, we present novel modeling results on the evolution of global climatic conditions through the Mesozoic.An ensemble of equilibrium climate states for 40 geological timeslices between 255 and 60 Ma is simulated with the CLIMBER-3α Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The influence of changing paleogeography, sea level, vegetation cover, solar luminosity, orbital configuration and atmospheric CO2 concentration is systematically tested based on constraints from published geological proxy reconstructions and previous modeling work.Atmospheric pCO2 is found to be the strongest driver of global mean temperatures, which are generally elevated above the present and reach ≥20°C in the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic and the mid-Cretaceous if a recently published pCO2 proxy compilation is employed. The simulated seasonal latitudinal shift of high precipitation zones exhibits a maximum during the mid-Triassic to Early Jurassic and therefore supports the notion of a “Megamonsoon” during this time. Simulated humid and arid climate zones generally agree well with spatial distributions of geologic climate indicators like coal and evaporites, although some discrepancies exist. The same applies to the correlation of fossil stony coral reef distributions with regions where seawater temperatures would have been suitable for (modern) coral reefs. We will discuss which changes of Earth System parameters throughout the Mesozoic can best explain shifts in these distributions.

Feedbacks between biosphere and other components of the Earth system are challenging to model accurately and therefore are often omitted or oversimplified in Earth system models (ESMs). However, their importance is increasingly recognized as rapid disturbances due to anthropogenic (e.g., deforestation) or natural (e.g. regional increase in fires) drivers are already observed.Here we couple the well established and comprehensively validated dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL5.1 (von Bloh et al., 2018) to an Earth System model CM2Mc (MOM5/AM2, Galbraith et al. 2011). We replace the simple static vegetation model LaD with LPJmL5.1 and couple the water- and energy cycle by using GFDL’s Flexible Modeling System (FMS). In order to stabilize the model performance, several adjustments to LPJmL5.1 had to be done, including the introduction of a subdaily cycle for the energy and water calculations, the implementation of a conductance of the soil evaporation and plant interception, the calculation of a canopy layer humidity, and the surface energy balance in order to calculate the surface and canopy layer temperature within LPJmL5.1.The coupled system allows us to answer questions regarding ecosystem stability with a complete energy and water cycle. For example, changes in the vegetation have a large impact on atmosphere dynamics, which in turn affects precipitation and feeds back into vegetation growth and mortality. To examine this feedback a simple experiment is performed by deforesting the whole Amazon basin and replacing it with grassland. Our results show decreasing precipitation and increasing canopy temperature which becomes a stable climate state in this treeless scenario. Future applications of the coupled model may include the investigation of tipping points in the biosphere, the impact of different atmospheric CO2 concentrations or climate change and land-use change scenarios.

According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it. Social Media Abstract: The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

The bulk of Earth’s coal deposits used as fossil fuel today was formed from plant debris during the late Carboniferous and early Permian periods. The high burial rate of organic carbon correlates with a significant drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at that time. A recent analysis of a high-resolution record reveals large orbitally driven variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration between ∼ 150 and 700 ppm for the latest Carboniferous and very low values of 100 ± 80 ppm for the earliest Permian. Here, I explore the sensitivity of the climate around the Carboniferous/Permian boundary to changes in Earth’s orbital parameters and in atmospheric CO2 using a coupled climate model. The coldest orbital configurations are characterized by large axial tilt and small eccentricities of Earth’s elliptical orbit, whereas the warmest configuration occurs at minimum tilt, maximum eccentricity, and a perihelion passage during Northern hemisphere spring. Global glaciation occurs at CO2 concentrations

Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth’s climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000–1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000–1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

Sixty-six million years ago, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction ended the reign of the dinosaurs. Flood basalt eruptions and an asteroid impact are widely discussed causes, yet their contributions remain debated. Modeling the environmental changes after the Chicxulub impact can shed light on this question. Existing studies, however, focused on the effect of dust or used one-dimensional, noncoupled atmosphere models. Here we explore the longer-lasting cooling due to sulfate aerosols using a coupled climate model. Depending on aerosol stratospheric residence time, global annual mean surface air temperature decreased by at least 26°C, with 3 to 16 years subfreezing temperatures and a recovery time larger than 30 years. The surface cooling triggered vigorous ocean mixing which could have resulted in a plankton bloom due to upwelling of nutrients. These dramatic environmental changes suggest a pivotal role of the impact in the end-Cretaceous extinction.

2015 was a year of important milestones for Earth’s climate. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations exceeded the level of 400 ppm for the first time in human history, global temperatures were more than 1 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, and, finally, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (or COP21) in Paris ended with the signing of a global agreement to safeguard Earth’s climate. In this chapter, I will briefly review the current state of global warming, the projected temperature increase and expected climate impacts in the future as well as the main elements of the Paris Agreement and its implications.

In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on ‘established evidence’ that was only true for preindustrial conditions—this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947–2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated.

During the Devonian period (419 to 359 million years ago), life on Earth witnessed decisive evolutionary break-throughs, most prominently the colonisation of land by vascular plants and vertebrates. At the same time, it is also a period of major marine extinction events coinciding with marked changes in climate. There is limited knowledge about the causes of these changes and their interactions. It is therefore instructive to explore systematically how the Devonian climate system responds to changes in critical boundary conditions. Here we use coupled climate-model simulations to investigate separately the influence of changes in orbital parameters, continental configuration and vegetation cover on the Devonian climate. Variations of Earth's orbital parameters affect the Devonian climate system, with the warmest climate states at high obliquity and high eccentricity, but the amplitude of global temperature differences is smaller than suggested by an earlier study based on an uncoupled atmosphere model. The prevailing mode of climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales relates to surface air temperature fluctuations in high northern latitudes which are mediated by coupled oscillations involving sea-ice cover, ocean convection and a regional overturning circulation in the Arctic. Furthermore, we find only a small biogeophysical effect of changes in vegetation cover on global climate during the Devonian, and the impact of changes in continental configuration is small as well. Assuming decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Devonian, we then set up model runs representing the Early, Middle and Late Devonian. Comparing the simulations for these timeslices, the temperature evolution is dominated by the strong decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide. In particular, the albedo change due to the in- crease in land vegetation alone cannot explain the temperature rise found in Late Devonian proxy data which remains difficult to reconcile with reconstructed falling carbon-dioxide levels. Simulated temperatures are significantly lower than estimates based on oxygen-isotope ratios, suggesting a lower δ18O ratio of Devonian seawater.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years., A.R. was funded by the Marie Curie Horizon2020 project CONCLIMA (grant number 703251). PIK is a Member of the Leibniz Association.

The Earth underwent two snowball glaciation events between 720 and 635 million years ago. The preceding expansion of eukaryotic algae and a consequent rise in emissions of organic cloud condensation nuclei may have contributed to the dramatic cooling.

The Sturtian and Marinoan snowball Earth episodes initiated 720 and 650 million years ago, respectively, are among the most dramatic events in Earth's history. The ultimate causes of these events remain obscure, however, and there is still uncertainty about the critical levels of greenhouse gas concentrations at which the snowball transition occurs. Furthermore, earlier modelling results (with incomplete representations of important boundary conditions) provided conflicting indications for differences between the critical carbon dioxide concentrations for the Marinoan and the Sturtian, reporting either the earlier or the later epoch to be more susceptible to global glaciation. Both the absolute values of and possible differences between these glaciation thresholds have profound implications for scenarios of snowball initiations during the Neoproterozoic. Here, we present coupled climate simulations (using an ocean general circulation model with dynamic/thermodynamic sea ice coupled to a fast atmosphere) focusing on the differences between the Neoproterozoic glaciations. For the first time, our simulations use realistic boundary conditions in terms of changes in solar luminosity between the two epochs and the most recent continental reconstructions. In agreement with previous studies with models including ocean and sea-ice dynamics, we report low values for the critical carbon dioxide concentration during the Neoproterozoic. But in contrast to hints from earlier studies we find very similar values of 100–130 ppm for the snowball bifurcation point during the Sturtian and Marinoan. This highlights the importance of realistic boundary conditions for climate simulations of the Neoproterozoic glaciations.

Climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration are intimately coupled in the Earth system: CO2 influences climate through the greenhouse effect, but climate also affects CO2 through its impact on the amount of carbon stored on land and in the ocean. The change in atmospheric CO2 as a response to a change in temperature ( $$\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$$ ) is a useful measure to quantify the feedback between the carbon cycle and climate. Using an ensemble of experiments with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we show a pronounced time-scale dependence of $$\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$$ . A maximum is found on centennial scales with $$\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$$ values for the model ensemble in the range 5–12 ppm °C−1, while lower values are found on shorter and longer time scales. These results are consistent with estimates derived from past observations. Up to centennial scales, the land carbon response to climate dominates the CO2 signal in the atmosphere, while on longer time scales the ocean becomes important and eventually dominates on multi-millennial scales. In addition to the time-scale dependence, modeled $$\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$$ show a distinct dependence on the initial state of the system. In particular, on centennial time-scales, high $$\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$$ values are correlated with high initial land carbon content. A similar relation holds also for the CMIP5 models, although for $$\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$$ computed from a very different experimental setup. The emergence of common patterns like this could prove to usefully constrain the climate–carbon cycle feedback.

[1] Large volcanic eruptions can have a significant cooling effect on climate, which is evident in both modern and palaeo data. However, due to the difficulty of disentangling volcanic and other influences in the modern atmospheric CO2 record, and uncertainties associated with palaeo reconstructions of atmospheric CO2, the magnitude of the carbon cycle response to volcanically induced climatic changes is difficult to quantify. In this study, three Earth System Models (SIMEARTH, CLIMBER‐2, and CLIMBER LPJ) are used to simulate the effects of different magnitudes of volcanic eruption, from relatively small (e.g., Mount Pelee, 1902) to very large (e.g., the 1258 ice core event), on the coupled global climate‐carbon cycle system. These models each use different, but justifiable, parameterizations to simulate the global carbon cycle and climate. Key differences include how soil respiration and net primary productivity respond to temperature and atmospheric CO2. All models simulate global surface cooling in response to volcanic events. In response to a Mount Pinatubo‐equivalent eruption, the modelled temperature decrease is 0.3°C to 0.4°C and atmospheric CO2 decreases by 1.1 ppm to 3.4 ppm. The initial response time of climate to volcanic forcing and subsequent recovery time vary little with changes in the size of the forcing. Response times for vegetation and soil carbon are relatively consistent across forcings for each model. However, results indicate that there is significant uncertainty concerning the response of the carbon cycle to volcanic eruptions. Suggestions for future research directed at reducing this uncertainty are given.

In today’s climate, the annually averaged surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is 18‐28C higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Historically, this interhemispheric temperature differencehas beenattributedtoanumberoffactors,includingseasonaldifferencesin insolation,the largerarea of (tropical) land in the NH, the particularities of the Antarctic in terms of albedo and temperature, and northwardheat transportby ocean circulation. A detailedinvestigation ofthese factors andtheir contribution to the temperature difference, however, has to the authors’ knowledge not been performed so far. Here the origin of the interhemispheric temperature difference is traced using an assessment of climatological data and the observedenergybudget ofEarth as well as modelsimulations. It is found that for thepreindustrialclimate the temperature difference is predominantly due to meridional heat transport in the oceans, with an additional contribution from the albedo differences between the polar regions. The combination of these factors (that are to some extent coupled) governs the evolution of the temperature difference over the past millennium. Since the beginning of industrialization the interhemispheric temperature difference has increased due to melting of sea ice and snow in the NH. Furthermore, the predicted higher rate of warming over land as compared to the oceans contributes to this increase. Simulations for the twenty-first century show that the interhemispheric temperature difference continues to grow for the highest greenhouse gas emission scenarios due to the land‐ocean warming contrast and the strong loss of Arctic sea ice, whereas the decrease in overturning strength dominates for the more moderate scenarios. ‘‘In few departments of Natural Philosophy have Philosophers differed more widely in opinion, than in the comparison of the temperatures of the two hemispheres.’’ (Harvey 1834, p. 29). Indeed, the scientific debate on the surface air temperature difference between Earth’s hemispheres and its causes has a long and rich history that can be traced back to the beginning of the sixteenth century. When the early navigators explored the higher latitudes of the Southern Ocean, their reports suggested cooler conditions than the ones found at equivalent latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Therefore, the notion of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) being much colder than the Northern Hemisphere on annual aver

At the beginning of the Archean eon (ca. 3.8 billion years ago), the Earth's climate state was significantly different from today due to the lower solar luminosity, smaller continental fraction, higher rotation rate and, presumably, significantly larger greenhouse gas concentrations. All these aspects play a role in solutions to the "faint young Sun paradox" which must explain why the ocean surface was not fully frozen at that time. Here, we present 3-D model simulations of climate states that are consistent with early Archean boundary conditions and have different CO2 concentrations, aiming at an understanding of the fundamental characteristics of the early Archean climate system. In order to do so, we have appropriately modified an intermediate complexity climate model that couples a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (involving parameterizations of the dynamics) to an ocean general circulation model and a thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice model. We focus on three states: one of them is ice-free, one has the same mean surface air temperature of 288 K as today's Earth and the third one is the coldest stable state in which there is still an area with liquid surface water (i.e. the critical state at the transition to a "snowball Earth"). We find a reduction in meridional heat transport compared to today, which leads to a steeper latitudinal temperature profile and has atmospheric as well as oceanic contributions. Ocean surface velocities are largely zonal, and the strength of the atmospheric meridional circulation is significantly reduced in all three states. These aspects contribute to the observed relation between global mean temperature and albedo, which we suggest as a parameterization of the ice-albedo feedback for 1-D model simulations of the early Archean and thus the faint young Sun problem.

We present results from modelling of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3–3 million years ago) using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 analysing the effect of changes in boundary conditions as well as of orbital forcing on climate. First we performed equilibrium experiments following the PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) protocol with a CO2 concentration of 405 ppm, reconstructed mid-Pliocene orography and vegetation and a present-day orbital configuration. Simulated global Pliocene warming is about 2.5 °C, fully consistent with results of atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations performed for the same modelling setup. A factor separation analysis attributes 1.5 °C warming to CO2, 0.3 °C to orography, 0.2 °C to ice sheets and 0.4 °C to vegetation. Transient simulations for the entire mid-Pliocene warm period with time-dependent orbital forcing as well as interactive ice sheets and vegetation give a global warming varying within the range 1.9–2.8 °C. Ice sheet and vegetation feedbacks in synergy act as amplifiers of the orbital forcing, transforming seasonal insolation variations into an annual mean temperature signal. The effect of orbital forcing is more significant at high latitudes, especially during boreal summer, when the warming over land varies in the wide range from 0 to 10 °C. The modelled ice-sheet extent and vegetation distribution also show significant temporal variations. Modelled and reconstructed data for Northern Hemisphere sea-surface temperatures and vegetation distribution show the best agreement if the reconstructions are assumed to be representative for the warmest periods during the orbital cycles. This suggests that low-resolution Pliocene palaeoclimate reconstructions can reflect not only the impact of increased CO2 concentrations and topography changes but also the effect of orbital forcing. Therefore, the climate (Earth system) sensitivity estimates from Pliocene reconstructions which do not account for the effect of orbital forcing can be biased toward high values.

We investigate a network of influences connected to global mean temperature. Considering various climatic factors known to influence global mean temperature, we evaluate not only the impacts of these factors on temperature but also the directed dependencies among the factors themselves. Based on an existing recurrence-based connectivity measure, we propose a new and more general measure that quantifies the level of dependence between two time series based on joint recurrences at a chosen time delay. The measures estimated in the analysis are tested for statistical significance using twin surrogates. We find, in accordance with earlier studies, the major drivers for global mean temperature to be greenhouse gases, ENSO, volcanic activity, and solar irradiance. We further uncover a feedback between temperature and ENSO. Our results demonstrate the need to involve multiple, delayed interactions within the drivers of temperature in order to develop a more thorough picture of global temperature variations.

Among the climatological events of the last millennium, the Northern Hemisphere Medieval Climate Anomaly succeeded by the Little Ice Age are of exceptional importance. The origin of these regional climate anomalies remains a subject of debate and besides external influences like solar and volcanic activity, internal dynamics of the climate system might have also played a dominant role. Here, we present transient last millennium simulations of the fully coupled model of intermediate complexity Climber 3α forced with stochastically reconstructed wind-stress fields. Our results indicate that short-lived volcanic eruptions might have triggered a cascade of sea ice–ocean feedbacks in the North Atlantic, ultimately leading to a persistent regime shift in the ocean circulation. We find that an increase in the Nordic Sea sea-ice extent on decadal timescales as a consequence of major volcanic eruptions in our model leads to a spin-up of the subpolar gyre and a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, eventually causing a persistent, basin-wide cooling. These results highlight the importance of regional climate feedbacks such as a regime shift in the subpolar gyre circulation for understanding the dynamics of past and future climate.

The Mauna Loa Observatory record of direct-beam solar irradiance measurements for the years 1958-2010 is analysed to investigate the variation of clear-sky terrestrial insolation with solar activity over more than four solar cycles. The raw irradiance data exhibit a marked seasonal cycle, extended periods of lower irradiance due to emissions of volcanic aerosols, and a long-term decrease in atmospheric transmission independent of solar activity. After correcting for these effects, it is found that clear-sky terrestrial irradiance typically varies by about 0.2 +/- 0.1% over the course of the solar cycle, a change of the same order of magnitude as the variations of the total solar irradiance above the atmosphere. An investigation of changes in the clear-sky atmospheric transmission fails to find a significant trend with sunspot number. Hence there is no evidence for a yet unknown effect amplifying variations of clear-sky irradiance with solar activity., 16 pages, 7 figures, in press at Solar Physics; minor changes to the text to match final published version