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The energy transition fosters a dynamic landscape marked by renewable energy, electrification, and complex interactions among actors and technologies. Employing model experiments and comparisons shows promise for exploring these connections and enhancing model clarity and precision. This study adopts a multi-model approach, integrating a model comparison to probe how the electrification of demand-side sectors and strategic load shifts of battery electric vehicles and heat pumps might impact Germany's generation adequacy by 2030. Specific demand models from the transport and heating sectors and a future load structure projection model are interlinked with three electricity system models. The comparative analysis of the three electricity system models unveils discrepancies in dispatch decisions for power plants, flexibility options' load shifts, and their effects on generation adequacy, directly tied to model attributes. The comparison underscores methodological variations (linear optimization versus agent-based simulation, myopic foresight versus perfect foresight) as pivotal, emphasizing the significance of considering load change and start-up costs for power plants. The results show that with optimized load shifting by electric vehicles and heat pumps, the adequacy of power generation is less strained despite increased electricity demand. Moreover, load shifts mitigate curtailment of renewables and consumers, reducing carbon emissions by lowering conventional power generation. • A multi-model approach with an integrated electricity model comparison is applied. • The impact of load shifting on future generation adequacy is analyzed. • Load shifting of electric vehicles and heat pumps reduces curtailment and emissions. • Model approaches and load change costs are decisive for result deviations. • Additional flexibility of 9 GW in average and 39 GW in extreme weather year needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of China’s new round of electricity market reform is to orderly release the plan of power generation and power utilization and gradually expand the scale of market-oriented transactions. The generation adequacy is an indicator that needs to be paid attention to during releasing the plan of power generation and power utilization. Insufficient generation adequacy will result in market monopoly and high market-clearing prices. Given this background, the market power and bidding strategies of generators under the low and high generation adequacy are analyzed in this paper. Then, a synthetic decision model for the energy allocation between bilateral contracts and a pool market and the bidding strategy in the pool market is constructed considering the generation adequacy. Case studies are performed for demonstrating the decision-making model and simulation results show that the proposed model can assist generators to make energy allocation and bidding decision based on the generation adequacy, own power generation capacity and bilateral contract prices, and can provide guidance for market operation agencies to gradually release the plan of power generation and power utilization.

This paper proposes the application of generation adequacy analysis for reliability evaluation of an insulated power generation system that supplies a FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) oil and gas production platform. The frequency and duration method was adopted for generating system reliability evaluation. The historical reliability data of the floating production storage and offloading platform power system and the continuous Markov process are used to determine the generator's reliability model. The load model was also based on the platform daily peak load variation curve. The system risk indexes were obtained using Monte Carlo simulation. Two system scenarios were simulated using different failure data for one of the generators and the software PowerFactory© has been used as a tool for this simulation. For a complete generation system modeling, frequency and duration methods were developed to calculate the probabilities, frequencies and duration of the system states. Numerical results are presented and discussed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decades, the actions aimed to realize an integrated pan-European electricity market brought about profound modifications on the physical, information and communication systems upon which the electricity delivery process occurs. In order to assess some of the techno-economic challenges relating to the single electricity market functioning, including the future needs of electricity, several dispatch models have been developed in recent years in Europe and the rest of the world. In particular, EUPowerDispatch, a minimum cost dispatch model, was originally developed to investigate the need for cross-border transmission investment in Europe. This paper proposes an improved version of EUPowerDispatch that aims at analysing the generation adequacy of the European electricity system in a probabilistic manner. For this purpose, planned and unplanned outages of all single conventional generating units are modelled. The former are optimally and timely allocated while the latter are stochastically generated with chronological Monte Carlo simulations. Data of wind and solar PV production from several meteorological years are accounted for as well as hydro series of run-of-river and natural inflows to the hydro reservoirs. The case study is composed of 33 European countries/regions which are linked through interconnectors. Indexes for the reliability assessment of electric power systems are calculated in order to study the generation adequacy of the European electricity system in 2025.

An important aspect of long-term power system planning models is their adequacy awareness, i.e., their ability to ensure generation adequacy in the final solution, which in turn strongly depends on the level of temporal detail included in the model structure. To maintain computational tractability, the temporal detail included in long-term planning models is, however, often limited, which decreases their adequacy awareness resulting in inadequate capacity mixes. To compensate for this, several adequacy-improving measures can be taken. The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of three of these measures, namely (i) adding a traditional static planning reserve margin (PRM) constraint, (ii) adding a dynamic PRM constraint and (iii) a novel approach that increases the level of temporal detail with which critical peak periods are modeled. To this end, we compare each of these three adequacy methods in a long-term planning exercise based on (i) total system costs, (ii) adequacy of the resulting capacity mix and (iii) technology choices. Our results suggest that the novel approach more effectively increases the adequacy of the obtained capacity mix, resulting in lower total system costs and less technology biases. Also the dynamic PRM approach performs well, although occasional inadequacies can occur in individual milestone years due to exogenously imposed capacity credits.

This paper proposes the application of generation adequacy analysis for reliability evaluation of an insulated power generation system that supplies a FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) oil and gas production platform. The frequency and duration method was adopted for generating system reliability evaluation. The historical reliability data of the floating production storage and offloading platform power system and the continuous Markov process are used to determine the generator’s reliability model. The load model was also based on the platform daily peak load variation curve. The system risk indexes were obtained using Monte Carlo simulation. Two system scenarios were simulated using different failure data for one of the generators and the software PowerFactory© has been used as a tool for this simulation. For a complete generation system modeling, frequency and duration methods were developed to calculate the probabilities, frequencies and duration of the system states. Numerical results are presented and discussed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method.

In this article, cross-border effects of different market design options are analyzed using Switzerland, which is strongly interconnected to larger neighboring markets, as a case study. An investigation is conducted with an agent-based model where in one scenario, all market designs are represented according to the current legislation, and in another, energy-only markets (EOM) are assumed in all considered countries. The results show that wholesale electricity prices are highly dependent on the chosen market design and in the annual average are up to 27% higher in the EOM scenario. Due to expected larger interconnector capacities, this increase is evident in all simulated markets. Furthermore, the results indicate that the planned market design changes in the neighboring countries decrease investments in Switzerland. However, generation adequacy is still guaranteed due to the high Swiss hydropower storage capacity. Our results suggest that, under the current circumstances, a domestic mechanism in Switzerland is not required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article addresses a new approach to investigating the impact of demand response (DR) on the generation adequacy by considering customers’ willingness to participate in DR. Firstly, to characterize psychological behaviors of the customer, we design a general reference-dependent utility (RU) function, and select the hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) function as the fundamental function to develop an HARA-RU (H-RU) function for depicting risk attitude of the customer. Secondly, a Q-learning algorithm based on the H-RU function is proposed to simulate customers’ willingness to participate in DR. In this way, the available capacity of DR can be measured. Thirdly, based on the available capacity, a DR scheduling model is developed. And fourthly, according to the scheduling results, an assessment procedure is proposed to evaluate the impact of DR on generation adequacy. Finally, a case study is provided to verify the effectiveness of our method. Besides, one limitation of this study is that transmission congestions are not considered. In future research, it would be interesting to consider this factor and extend our method to the case of a more sophisticated situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable and conventional generators in distributed generation system (DGS) are affected by aging and degradation progressively decreases their efficiency and nameplate capacity. This fact is, however, often omitted in the adequacy calculations of the energy not supplied (E N S) and O&M costs (C o) for DGS done via optimal power flow (OPF), leading to the underestimation of unreliability and costs. Moreover, these estimates are hard to compute due to the uncertain aging process. To overcome this limitation, we show that the degradation paths for generators of the same type are intrinsically variable, even for similar operating environments, and capture this by Wiener degradation process with unit-to-unit variability, whose parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm. The Wiener degradation model and the cross-correlation of C o and efficiency are validated using data from the Electric Utility Annual Report of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Monte Carlo Simulation and OPF are integrated to generate multiple degradation paths and variable operational conditions, and, ultimately, to evaluate the E N S and C o. The application to an empirical dataset and the IEEE 13 node test feeder shows that generator degradation has an increasing influence on the DGS and causes around 8% and 12% increments in E N S and C o. • Aging of distributed generators degrades the available power and nameplate capacity. • Wiener process with unit-to-unit variability models the stochastic degradation path. • The combined MC and OPF model is validated using utility statistics from US FERC. • We apply the degradation framework on the IEEE 13 bus feeder and real weather data. • Aging increases energy not supplied and costs by 8% and 12% in six years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A quantitative determination for demand curve in capacity market is presented. • Coupling effect between profits in capacity and energy markets is modeled. • A tractable modeling for investment behavior in joint markets is presented. The reasonable design of the capacity market parameters in power systems is an essential problem. Being a key element for the capacity market design, an appropriate demand curve of capacity must stimulate sufficient but not excessive capacity investments to satisfy system adequacy requirements. This paper proposes a framework to determine the parameter settings of the demand curve in the capacity market by comprehensively evaluating the investment decision of generations. The joint revenues of generators in both capacity market and energy market are calculated to assess the effect of market for incentivizing investment. The mutual effects of the revenues from capacity and energy markets are modeled using the prospect theory. An investment decision model of generators is developed based on the joint revenues and total costs. The performance of the capacity market is evaluated through dynamic simulation of generator capacity investments. An algorithm is presented to determine the desired parameter settings of capacity market that meet the capacity stimulation requirements without causing redundant capacity. A case study is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the optimal dispatch of energy-constrained heterogeneous storage units to maximize security of supply. A policy, requiring no knowledge of the future, is presented and shown to minimize unserved energy during supply-shortfall events, regardless of the supply and demand profiles. It is accompanied by a graphical means to rapidly determine unavoidable energy shortfalls, which can then be used to compare different device fleets. The policy is well suited for use within the framework of system adequacy assessment; for this purpose, a discrete time optimal policy is conceived, in both analytic and algorithmic forms, such that these results can be applied to discrete time systems and simulation studies. This is exemplified via a generation adequacy study of the British system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand response (DR) can serve as virtual reserve to cope the impact of wind power on system reliability. This paper describes a new approach to investigating the impact of DR in a wind-integrated power system from the perspective of generation adequacy. First, owing to the uncertainty of human behavior, DR cannot be trusted to provide a sufficient reserve. To characterize the associated uncertainty, we use a value function of prospect theory to depict the risk attitude of the customer. Based on this function, we propose a variant Roth-Erev algorithm to characterize the uncertainty of customer participation and measure the available capacity of DR. Second, we introduce the available capacity of DR into operational constraints and construct a DR scheduling model to reduce system operation costs. Finally, based on the uncertainty characterization of DR and a scheduling model, we extend the traditional assessment procedure using Monte-Carlo simulation and propose a novel procedure to evaluate the impact of DR on generation adequacy. Simulation results show that introducing DR can improve the generation adequacy of a wind-integrated power system. The proposed DR scheduling method reduces the operational cost and improves generation adequacy. • A method is proposed to evaluate the impact of DR on wind-integrated power system. • Characterized uncertainty of customer participation by considering risk attitudes. • Constructed a DR scheduling model to reduce operation cost of system operators. • Extends generation adequacy assessment method to consider wind power and DR impacts. • The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified on test systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article concerns safety of power supply for the final consumers, especially its two comprising elements, which are generation adequacy and distribution system reliability. Generation adequacy has been defined with Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and Energy Not Supplied (ENS) indices. Conclusions from generation adequacy forecast prepared by ENSTO-E for Poland compared with other European countries for the years 2020 and 2025 have been discussed along with the resulting threats. Interruptions in energy supply have been characterised by power discontinuity indicator SAIDI. Finally, a reliability and adequacy analysis have been performed for different scenarios of the Polish power system operation in order to assess possibilities of using distributed generation as a backup power source. Based on a simulation model created using the DIgSILENT Power Factory software, the reliability and adequacy calculations have been performed with the probabilistic non-sequential Monte Carlo method and they are followed by a discussion of the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capacity mechanisms have been implemented in an uncoordinated way by many countries in Europe in recent years to ensure security of supply. The European Commission has defined, via the state aid guidelines, principles to minimize their impact on trade and competition in European electricity markets. The paper identifies the different drivers of these national reforms, maps the key issues associated with the coordination of capacity mechanisms across countries, and explores alternative approaches to allow for explicit cross-border participation in capacity mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impacts of incorporating energy storage devices (ESD) into a virtual power plant (VPP) model and subsequently using it for performing generating system adequacy studies. A two-step linearized optimization formulation is proposed for developing the overall VPP model featuring the aggregated characteristics and capacities of several distributed generators (DG), ESDs and loads together with distribution network information like topology and constraints. While the first step determines the (charging or discharging) operating mode of the batteries, the second step outputs the optimal dispatch schedules for the DGs and ESDs in accordance with a fair energy allocation based operating strategy adopted in this paper. The VPP is modeled using an augmented IEEE 69-bus distribution network, and the overall generation adequacy studies incorporating the VPP are carried out on the IEEE Reliability Test System using a sequential simulation algorithm. Several indices are presented for quantifying the impacts of the ESDs’ incorporation on the VPP model’s performance. Finally, sensitivity studies conducted for investigating the effects of variations in the ESD rated capacities and charging/discharging periods on the VPP performance and system adequacy indices are also described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Support generation adequacy through geographical diversification of wind turbines. • Proposal of a probabilistic convolution approach for the determination of the required firm capacity. • Optimized geographic allocation of wind turbines can reduce need for firm generation capacity. • Trade-off between maximizing wind yield and contribution to generation adequacy. Abstract Due to the growing share of variable renewable energy sources, system integration and the contribution of mature renewable technologies to security of supply is becoming increasingly important. This implies that the overall infeed from renewables should be as high as possible at times of high electrical load. Hence, it is questioned whether variable renewables can contribute to the improvement of system reliability. This paper investigates to what extent a geographical diversification of wind onshore farms can support generation adequacy. Based on meteorological data, synthetic time series of wind infeed are simulated and geographical allocation of wind turbines is optimized. A probabilistic convolution approach is proposed to determine required firm capacity necessary to maintain security of supply. The findings indicate that changing the allocation of wind turbines allows saving up to 2 GW of required firm capacity. In case of wind turbines with storm control, the wind feed-in during the system peak load can be increased by about 0.5 GW. From an economic perspective a trade-off between maximizing the wind yield and contribution of wind to generation adequacy of 0.8 bn€ is found. Further possible cost savings regarding balancing and transmission should be incorporated in the context of renewables policy design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Generation adequacy is a key ingredient to security of electricity supply. We develop a stochastic model of demand and supply (from different technologies) for measuring it from a physical or technical point of view. We adopt several metrics of supply shortfalls. Next we demonstrate the model by example. Because of limited interconnections with neighboring countries, Spain can be considered an electric island. We get numerical estimates of the parameters underlying the model. We then resort to Monte Carlo simulation to derive the risk profile of the adequacy metrics in the coming decades. We consider up to ten scenarios, with different demand paths and generation parks. The proposed deployment of renewable technologies and the envisaged closure of coal-fired and nuclear stations result in greater risk of shortages. For one, assuming that demand grows at 1.36% per year, from 2020 to 2030 the expected energy not served increases more than 400-fold as coal and nuclear capacities are reduced; the factor runs into the tens of thousands by 2040 and 2050 when those technologies cease to operate. These results are potentially important for policy makers, system operators, and power companies involved in the construction of the European internal electricity market. Highlights • We focus on the ability of a generation park to serve peak demand in the long run. • We develop a stochastic model of power supply (from various technologies) and demand. • We assess the mismatches between them by computing several adequacy metrics. • We apply the model to the Spanish mainland system (an 'electric island') up to 2050. • The proposed parks (further renewables, close coal/nuclear) are a cause for concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although decarbonisation is one of the most important macro-trends of this century, electricity generation from coal power plants is still broadly common. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of a premature coal power plants phase-out on the Italian day-ahead electricity market. For this purpose, two electricity price forecasts, related to different scenarios between 2019 and 2030, and two different hypotheses for the creation of electricity spot price, were compared. The results from the different scenarios show that coal power plants phase-out determines a small variation in electricity price when bid-up is not considered; instead, when operators’ bid-up is included in the study, the price variation becomes relevant.

Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939–1942) with Finnish Environment Institute's Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a stochastic dynamic capacity investment model that incorporates strategic bidding of generators, price elasticity of demand, and ramping constraints. The model is based on an iterative procedure of finding an equilibrium electricity price forecast closely depicting real-world investor behavior. We assess the robustness and the total cost of generation of a capacity market compared to an energy-only market as capacity markets are increasingly considered worldwide due to market imperfections and rising feed-in from renewables. To estimate unplanned unavailabilities, we analyze a novel data set of the European Energy Exchange describing unplanned unavailability incidents. Applying the model to the Great Britain market, we find that capacity markets are more robust to unplanned unavailabilities of conventional generation in terms of the total cost of generation and price volatility. At the same time, capacity markets induce additional costs through capacity payments. Therefore, we jointly analyze the total cost of generation and the robustness with different levels of reserve margins. Our results show that there is a promising area of efficient trade-offs between costs and robustness in the range of reserve margins between 0 and 15%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving the computational efficiency of reliability assessment is a long‐term goal for researchers. Regarding this issue, an impact‐increment‐based decoupled reliability assessment approach (IID) is proposed in this study. First, a new formulation of reliability indices is derived by decoupling the reliability index of composite systems into two parts: generation adequacy and transmission reliability. Then, an impact‐increment‐based state enumeration reliability assessment method is implemented to both the parts, which are more efficient than tradition methods. Thereafter, a reduction technique for the higher‐order contingency states is developed for the transmission reliability evaluation. With this technique, the number of analysed contingencies can be significantly reduced, which improves the computational speed significantly. Finally, the overall framework of the proposed IID approach is demonstrated. Case studies are performed on the RTS‐79, RTS‐96 and a provincial system of China. Results indicate that the proposed method has superior performance to the traditional reliability assessment methods in terms of accuracy and computational speed, particularly on large‐scale composite systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Understanding the contribution a resource can make to the power system could indicate where its value lies. This paper estimates the capacity value of a load-shifting resource which is capable of providing multiple services. The capacity value represents the contribution of a resource to generation adequacy and an understanding of this contribution is important to compare how different power system resources can assist power system operators and planners. Additionally, policy-makers and market operators need an appreciation of the capacity value of different resources in order to design capacity remuneration mechanisms. A building energy model coupled with a power system model, co-optimizing the supply-side and the demand-side, is employed in this paper to estimate the capacity value of a specific load-shifting resource. The resource examined is electric thermal storage heating devices for space and water heating. Ireland is used as a test case. It was found that these load-shifting devices can provide an adequacy contribution to the power system and thus have a capacity value. The capacity value, for the Irish case, can be up to 26% for the DR resource in question for the given year but the values are typically much lower due to operational constraints (reserve provision) and due to occupancy profile impacts. The results highlight the need for holistic modeling of demand response resources, as well as the need for additional work for different load-shifting resources and more data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analytical method to model the output of large wind farms for power system reliability assessment. The model considers the variability of wind, random failures (forced outages) of turbines, as well as the correlation between turbine outputs that results from the turbines on a farm being subjected to similar incident wind speeds. Due to this correlation, the outputs of individual turbines cannot be modeled as independent random variables. The problem is addressed here by separately modeling the independent outages of wind turbines and the dependency on wind speed, and then convolving the two distributions. The resulting model includes both probability and frequency distributions of the power output of the wind farm. The proposed method is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Monte Carlo simulation is used to validate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The available capacity is a major factor that influences the reliability contribution of energy storage in power systems integrated with wind power. This paper presents the capacity value of the energy storage metrics to quantitatively estimate the contribution of energy storage to the generation adequacy. A method in accordance with EFC approach has been introduced to model the capacity value of energy storage. The adequacy-oriented model of the energy storage available capacity is proposed for the energy storage system, regarding the roles of the key parameters for the CVES analysis. The case study results indicate that the capacity value of energy storage quantitatively weigh the contribution of the energy storage to system reliability. The sensitivity analysis of the impact factors for the CVES is conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency has been given high strategic priority in European Union energy law. In addition to energy efficiency, reducing or shifting demand have been identified as key elements not only for improving the functioning of the internal electricity market but also for achieving the EU sustainability objectives and ensuring security of supply. This article argues that the EU regulatory framework for ensuring generation adequacy and introducing capacity mechanisms should be interpreted to prioritise demand side measures over capacity mechanisms. Through this contextual interpretation of the relevant regulatory framework, this article aims to identify the ways in which the Commission uses demand side assessments as justification for declaring capacity mechanisms (in)compatible with the internal market and how energy efficiency and demand side measures can, in practice, be designed to complement capacity remuneration for supply side measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of the energy-only market (EOM) in providing sufficient incentives for investments is intensively discussed in Europe. While supporters claim that an improved EOM can guarantee generation adequacy, energy suppliers in particular favor the introduction of a capacity market to finance power plant investments. However, there is a lack of quantitative assessment of market design options taking into account individual decisions of market players. Existing studies mainly include a system view based on a central planner optimization. This paper on the other hand is based on an agent-based simulation model for the German electricity market. This method can explicitly incorporate individual investment decisions and aggregate them to present a holistic view of the system. Our results show that an EOM extended with a strategic reserve can incentivize investments, and guarantee supply security in a market with high share of renewable energies. However, the generation adequacy can be more easily achieved with a capacity market. Furthermore, the cost advantage of an EOM diminishes in the long-term, as scarcity prices in the EOM lead to similar system costs as with a capacity market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Técnica Energía is the property of Centro Nacional de Control de Energia CENACE and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Although wave power installations are currently limited in number, the capacity value of wave power is of interest in power system planning. The capacity value of wind power has been studied in previous work, but the value for wave power is not known. Continuous time series characterizing the wave energy resource at multiple sites are generated from raw wave data. These time series are analyzed with a forced outage rate imposed for individual devices, as may be encountered by real wave energy farms. The capacity value of wave power at various sites is evaluated with reference to 500 MW of installed capacity. Portfolios are created, allocating wave power capacity to individual sites, with the impact of geographical aggregation being examined. The inter-annual variation for each portfolio is then determined in order to examine the robustness of the results. Comparison is also made between sites off the west coasts of Ireland and Portugal. The implications for the power system resulting from an increase in generation adequacy are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

There have been many debates over whether the energy-only electricity market will be able to provide a reasonable investment signal. So far, many diverse designs of capacity mechanisms have been proposed in relation to the adequacy problem. Researchers have conducted many qualitative studies of capacity mechanisms, but quantitative studies have largely been ignored. The framework for examining the impacts of market designs on generation adequacy considering various generation technologies have not been maturely developed. This paper focuses on developing this framework and finding out how effective capacity mechanisms are in different market conditions. To cover investment under uncertainty, we will introduce different utility functions representing risk attitudes and apply the expected utility theory to the investment decision. Finally, we will examine the investment decision sensitivity of the risk components such as the risk-attitude, the error of forecast peak load, and the forced outage rate and evaluate the performance of three market designs with dynamic simulations: an energy-only market, a capacity payment model, and a capacity demand curve model. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This work develops a stochastic optimization model for the creation of a bidding strategy for a generator in an energy call option auction similar to Brazil's, i.e., where the bidder can offer both the premium and the strike price. The objective of the model is to maximize the bidder's competitiveness while ensuring that the project's target rate of return is achieved with a given probability, for example 95%. The problem's complexity is compounded by uncertainties in fuel supply and the need to switch between fuels. The generators face the conundrum of bidding a single strike price to cover the expenses generated by using multiple types of fuels. We address the problem of finding bidding strategies which, taking into account uncertainty in fuel supply and risk constraints, set the combination of strike price and option premium that ensure a desired risk-adjusted return for greenfield dual-fuel thermal plants. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The requirements concerning reliability in power supply are high. This paper treats the issue of system adequacy, i.e., there should be enough installed capacity to meet the load with an acceptable reliability. The challenge in a liberalized market is that the utilization time of rarely used peak units is so low that they require extremely high prices in order to be profitable. This has led to different methods, including the creation of capacity markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the connection between peak prices, system reliability, required amount of subsidized capacity, i.e., the volume of the capacity market. In the studied market setup, only some selected units, so-called "reserve plants", receive a capacity payment. The paper also provides an example concerning change of capacity market volume in presence of wind power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]