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2. Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization

Author

Shattock, Andrew J, Johnson, Helen C, Sim, So Yoon, Carter, Austin, Lambach, Philipp, Hutubessy, Raymond C W, Thompson, Kimberly M, Badizadegan, Kamran, Lambert, Brian, Ferrari, Matthew J, Jit, Mark, Fu, Han, Silal, Sheetal P, Hounsell, Rachel A, White, Richard G, Mosser, Jonathan F, Gaythorpe, Katy A M, Trotter, Caroline L, Lindstrand, Ann, O'Brien, Katherine L, and Bar-Zeev, Naor

Published
2024
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5. A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

Author

Lim, Ah-Young, Jafari, Yalda, Caldwell, Jamie M., Clapham, Hannah E., Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith, Johansson, Michael A., Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Maude, Richard J., McCormack, Clare P., Messina, Jane P., Mordecai, Erin A., Rabe, Ingrid B., Reiner, Jr, Robert C., Ryan, Sadie J., Salje, Henrik, Semenza, Jan C., Rojas, Diana P., and Brady, Oliver J.

Published
2023
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7. Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020–30: a modelling study

Author

Hartner, Anna-Maria, Li, Xiang, Echeverria-Londono, Susy, Roth, Jeremy, Abbas, Kaja, Auzenbergs, Megan, de Villiers, Margaret J, Ferrari, Matthew J, Fraser, Keith, Fu, Han, Hallett, Timothy, Hinsley, Wes, Jit, Mark, Karachaliou, Andromachi, Moore, Sean M, Nayagam, Shevanthi, Papadopoulos, Timos, Perkins, T Alex, Portnoy, Allison, Minh, Quan Tran, Vynnycky, Emilia, Winter, Amy K, Burrows, Holly, Chen, Cynthia, Clapham, Hannah E, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Hauryski, Sarah, Huber, John, Jean, Kevin, Kim, Chaelin, Kim, Jong-Hoon, Koh, Jemima, Lopman, Benjamin A, Pitzer, Virginia E, Tam, Yvonne, Lambach, Philipp, Sim, So Yoon, Woodruff, Kim, Ferguson, Neil M, Trotter, Caroline L, and Gaythorpe, Katy A M

Published
2024
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8. Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study

Author

Imai, Natsuko, Rawson, Thomas, Knock, Edward S, Sonabend, Raphael, Elmaci, Yasin, Perez-Guzman, Pablo N, Whittles, Lilith K, Kanapram, Divya Thekke, Gaythorpe, Katy A M, Hinsley, Wes, Djaafara, Bimandra A, Wang, Haowei, Fraser, Keith, FitzJohn, Richard G, Hogan, Alexandra B, Doohan, Patrick, Ghani, Azra C, Ferguson, Neil M, Baguelin, Marc, and Cori, Anne

Published
2023
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13. Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Author

Hogan, Alexandra B, Jewell, Britta L, Sherrard-Smith, Ellie, Vesga, Juan F, Watson, Oliver J, Whittaker, Charles, Hamlet, Arran, Smith, Jennifer A, Winskill, Peter, Verity, Robert, Baguelin, Marc, Lees, John A, Whittles, Lilith K, Ainslie, Kylie E C, Bhatt, Samir, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Brazeau, Nicholas F, Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cooper, Laura V, Coupland, Helen, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Dighe, Amy, Djaafara, Bimandra A, Donnelly, Christl A, Eaton, Jeff W, van Elsland, Sabine L, FitzJohn, Richard G, Fu, Han, Gaythorpe, Katy A M, Green, William, Haw, David J, Hayes, Sarah, Hinsley, Wes, Imai, Natsuko, Laydon, Daniel J, Mangal, Tara D, Mellan, Thomas A, Mishra, Swapnil, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Parag, Kris V, Thompson, Hayley A, Unwin, H Juliette T, Vollmer, Michaela A C, Walters, Caroline E, Wang, Haowei, Wang, Yuanrong, Xi, Xiaoyue, Ferguson, Neil M, Okell, Lucy C, Churcher, Thomas S, Arinaminpathy, Nimalan, Ghani, Azra C, Walker, Patrick G T, and Hallett, Timothy B

Published
2020
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14. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

Author

Nouvellet, Pierre, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Cori, Anne, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Bhatt, Samir, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Brazeau, Nicholas F., Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cooper, Laura V., Coupland, Helen, Cucunuba, Zulma M., Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Dighe, Amy, Djaafara, Bimandra A., Dorigatti, Ilaria, Eales, Oliver D., van Elsland, Sabine L., Nascimento, Fabricia F., FitzJohn, Richard G., Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Geidelberg, Lily, Green, William D., Hamlet, Arran, Hauck, Katharina, Hinsley, Wes, Imai, Natsuko, Jeffrey, Benjamin, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Lees, John A., Mangal, Tara, Mellan, Thomas A., Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Parag, Kris V., Pons-Salort, Margarita, Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon, Riley, Steven, Unwin, H. Juliette T., Verity, Robert, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Volz, Erik, Walker, Patrick G. T., Walters, Caroline E., Wang, Haowei, Watson, Oliver J., Whittaker, Charles, Whittles, Lilith K., Xi, Xiaoyue, Ferguson, Neil M., and Donnelly, Christl A.

Published
2021
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21. Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review

Author

Sbarra, Alyssa N., primary, Jit, Mark, additional, Mosser, Jonathan F., additional, Ferrari, Matthew, additional, Cutts, Felicity, additional, Papania, Mark, additional, Kretsinger, Katrina, additional, McCarthy, Kevin A., additional, Thakkar, Niket, additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Gamage, Deepa, additional, Krause, L. Kendall, additional, Dansereau, Emily, additional, Crowcroft, Natasha, additional, and Portnoy, Allison, additional

Published
2023
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22. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

Author

Unwin, H. Juliette T., Mishra, Swapnil, Bradley, Valerie C., Gandy, Axel, Mellan, Thomas A., Coupland, Helen, Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Whittaker, Charles, Filippi, Sarah L., Xi, Xiaoyue, Monod, Mélodie, Ratmann, Oliver, Hutchinson, Michael, Valka, Fabian, Zhu, Harrison, Hawryluk, Iwona, Milton, Philip, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Brazeau, Nick F., Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cucunuba, Zulma, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Eales, Oliver D., Eaton, Jeffrey W., van Elsland, Sabine L., FitzJohn, Richard G., Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Green, William, Hinsley, Wes, Jeffrey, Benjamin, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Lees, John, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Okell, Lucy, Parag, Kris V., Siveroni, Igor, Thompson, Hayley A., Walker, Patrick, Walters, Caroline E., Watson, Oliver J., Whittles, Lilith K., Ghani, Azra C., Ferguson, Neil M., Riley, Steven, Donnelly, Christl A., Bhatt, Samir, and Flaxman, Seth

Published
2020
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26. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions

Author

Dighe, Amy, Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Skarp, Janetta, Imai, Natsuko, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Bhatt, Samir, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Brazeau, Nicholas F., Cooper, Laura V., Coupland, Helen, Cucunuba, Zulma, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Eales, Oliver D., van Elsland, Sabine L., FitzJohn, Richard G., Green, William D., Haw, David J., Hinsley, Wes, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Mellan, Thomas, Mishra, Swapnil, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Pons-Salort, Margarita, Thompson, Hayley A., Unwin, H. Juliette T., Verity, Robert, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Walters, Caroline E., Watson, Oliver J., Whittaker, Charles, Whittles, Lilith K., Ghani, Azra C., Donnelly, Christl A., Ferguson, Neil M., and Riley, Steven

Published
2020
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27. A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to mapAedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

Author

Lim, Ah-Young, primary, Jafari, Yalda, additional, Caldwell, Jamie M., additional, Clapham, Hannah E., additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Hussain-Alkhateeb, Laith, additional, Johansson, Michael A., additional, Kraemer, Moritz U. G., additional, Maude, Richard J., additional, McCormack, Clare P., additional, Messina, Jane P., additional, Mordecai, Erin A., additional, Rabe, Ingrid B., additional, Reiner, Robert C., additional, Ryan, Sadie J., additional, Salje, Henrik, additional, Semenza, Jan C., additional, Rojas, Diana P., additional, and Brady, Oliver J., additional

Published
2023
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28. Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study

Author

Jean, Kévin, Raad, Hanaya, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Hamlet, Arran, Mueller, Judith E., Hogan, Dan, Mengistu, Tewodaj, Whitaker, Heather J., Garske, Tini, and Hocine, Mounia N.

Subjects
Vaccination -- Usage -- Evaluation, Yellow fever -- Prevention, Biological sciences
Abstract

Background The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified. Methods and findings We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a range of sensitivity analyses, especially when using quantitative estimates of vaccination coverage as an alternative exposure measure, or when varying the observation period. In contrast, the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs were associated with a 34% (95% CI 22% to 45%) reduction in the number of outbreaks in Africa from 2005 to 2018. A limitation of our study is the fact that it does not account for potential time-varying confounders, such as changing environmental drivers of yellow fever and possibly improved disease surveillance. Conclusions In this study, we provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention., Author(s): Kévin Jean 1,2,3,*, Hanaya Raad 1,2,4, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe 3, Arran Hamlet 3, Judith E. Mueller 2,4, Dan Hogan 5, Tewodaj Mengistu 5, Heather J. Whitaker 6,7, Tini [...]

Published
2021
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31. Population-level risk factors related to measles case fatality: a conceptual framework based on expert consultation and literature review

Author

Sbarra, Alyssa N., primary, Jit, Mark, additional, Mosser, Jonathan F., additional, Ferrari, Matthew, additional, Cutts, Felicity, additional, Papania, Mark, additional, Kretsinger, Katrina, additional, McCarthy, Kevin A., additional, Thakkar, Niket, additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Gamage, Deepa, additional, Krause, L. Kendall, additional, Dansereau, Emily, additional, and Portnoy, Allison, additional

Published
2022
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34. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

Author

Flaxman, Seth, Mishra, Swapnil, Gandy, Axel, Unwin, H. Juliette T., Mellan, Thomas A., Coupland, Helen, Whittaker, Charles, Zhu, Harrison, Berah, Tresnia, Eaton, Jeffrey W., Monod, Mélodie, Perez-Guzman, Pablo N., Schmit, Nora, Cilloni, Lucia, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Boyd, Olivia, Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cooper, Laura V., Cucunubá, Zulma, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Dighe, Amy, Djaafara, Bimandra, Dorigatti, Ilaria, van Elsland, Sabine L., FitzJohn, Richard G., Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Geidelberg, Lily, Grassly, Nicholas C., Green, William D., Hallett, Timothy, Hamlet, Arran, Hinsley, Wes, Jeffrey, Ben, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Parag, Kris V., Siveroni, Igor, Thompson, Hayley A., Verity, Robert, Volz, Erik, Walters, Caroline E., Wang, Haowei, Wang, Yuanrong, Watson, Oliver J., Winskill, Peter, Xi, Xiaoyue, Walker, Patrick G. T., Ghani, Azra C., Donnelly, Christl A., Riley, Steven, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Ferguson, Neil M., Okell, Lucy C., Bhatt, Samir, Medical Research Council (MRC), and Wellcome Trust

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, medicine.medical_specialty, General Science & Technology, Population, Pooling, Psychological intervention, law.invention, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Case fatality rate, Pandemic, Epidemiology, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, education, education.field_of_study, Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary, business.industry, Multidisciplinary Sciences, 030104 developmental biology, Transmission (mechanics), Science & Technology - Other Topics, business, Basic reproduction number, Demography
Abstract

Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the COVID-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that-for all of the countries we consider here-current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt

Published
2020

36. Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Author

Charnley, Gina E. C., Jean, Kévin, Kelman, Ilan, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., and Murray, Kris A.

Abstract

Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement. To determine the extent of this association, we used the self-controlled case-series method and found that conflict increased the risk for cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2.6 times. We also found that 19.7% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and 12.3% of outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were attributable to conflict. Our results highlight the value of providing rapid and sufficient assistance during conflict-associated cholera outbreaks and working toward conflict resolution and addressing preexisting vulnerabilities, such as poverty and access to healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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39. Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

Author

Knock, Edward S., primary, Whittles, Lilith K., additional, Lees, John A., additional, Perez-Guzman, Pablo N., additional, Verity, Robert, additional, FitzJohn, Richard G., additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Imai, Natsuko, additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Okell, Lucy C., additional, Rosello, Alicia, additional, Kantas, Nikolas, additional, Walters, Caroline E., additional, Bhatia, Sangeeta, additional, Watson, Oliver J., additional, Whittaker, Charlie, additional, Cattarino, Lorenzo, additional, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, additional, Djaafara, Bimandra A., additional, Fraser, Keith, additional, Fu, Han, additional, Wang, Haowei, additional, Xi, Xiaoyue, additional, Donnelly, Christl A., additional, Jauneikaite, Elita, additional, Laydon, Daniel J., additional, White, Peter J., additional, Ghani, Azra C., additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, Cori, Anne, additional, and Baguelin, Marc, additional

Published
2021
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42. Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a mathematical modelling analysis

Author

Hogan, Alexandra B, primary, Winskill, Peter, additional, Watson, Oliver J, additional, Walker, Patrick G T, additional, Whittaker, Charles, additional, Baguelin, Marc, additional, Brazeau, Nicholas F, additional, Charles, Giovanni D, additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A M, additional, Hamlet, Arran, additional, Knock, Edward, additional, Laydon, Daniel J, additional, Lees, John A, additional, Løchen, Alessandra, additional, Verity, Robert, additional, Whittles, Lilith K, additional, Muhib, Farzana, additional, Hauck, Katharina, additional, Ferguson, Neil M, additional, and Ghani, Azra C, additional

Published
2021
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44. Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’

Author

Lavezzo, Enrico, Franchin, Elisa, Ciavarella, Constanze, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Barzon, Luisa, Del Vecchio, Claudia, Rossi, Lucia, Manganelli, Riccardo, Loregian, Arianna, Navarin, Nicolò, Abate, Davide, Sciro, Manuela, Merigliano, Stefano, De Canale, Ettore, Vanuzzo, Maria Cristina, Besutti, Valeria, Saluzzo, Francesca, Onelia, Francesco, Pacenti, Monia, Parisi, Saverio G., Carretta, Giovanni, Donato, Daniele, Flor, Luciano, Cocchio, Silvia, Masi, Giulia, Sperduti, Alessandro, Cattarino, Lorenzo, Salvador, Renato, Nicoletti, Michele, Caldart, Federico, Castelli, Gioele, Nieddu, Eleonora, Labella, Beatrice, Fava, Ludovico, Drigo, Matteo, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Brazzale, Alessandra R., Toppo, Stefano, Trevisan, Marta, Baldo, Vincenzo, Donnelly, Christl A., Ferguson, Neil M., Dorigatti, Ilaria, Crisanti, Andrea, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Bhatt, Samir, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Boyd, Olivia, Coupland, Helen L., Cucunubá, Zulma, Djafaara, Bimandra A., van Elsland, Sabine L., FitzJohn, Rich, Flaxman, Seth, Green, Will D., Hallett, Timothy, Hamlet, Arran, Haw, David, Imai, Natsuko, Jeffrey, Benjamin, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Mellan, Thomas, Mishra, Swapnil, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Okell, Lucy C., Parag, Kris V., Riley, Steven, Thompson, Hayley A., Unwin, H. Juliette T., Verity, Robert, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Walker, Patrick G. T., Walters, Caroline E., Wang, Haowei, Wang, Yuanrong, Watson, Oliver J., Whittaker, Charles, Whittles, Lilith K., Xi, Xiaoyue, Medical Research Council (MRC), Medical Research Council, The Royal Society, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding, The Academy of Medical Sciences, National Institute for Health Research, UK Research and Innovation, and Wellcome Trust

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Male, CORONAVIRUS, Viral Nonstructural Proteins, medicine.disease_cause, Disease Outbreaks, 0302 clinical medicine, Viral Envelope Proteins, Prevalence, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, Asymptomatic Infections, Coronavirus, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Coronavirus RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase, Multidisciplinary, Middle Aged, Viral Load, 3. Good health, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Policy, Italy, Child, Preschool, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Female, medicine.symptom, Coronavirus Infections, Viral load, Serial interval, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, General Science & Technology, Population, Pneumonia, Viral, Policy and public health in microbiology, Asymptomatic, 03 medical and health sciences, Betacoronavirus, Coronavirus Envelope Proteins, Young Adult, Internal medicine, medicine, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Humans, Author Correction, education, Pandemics, Aged, Science & Technology, business.industry, SARS-CoV-2, Infant, Newborn, Outbreak, COVID-19, Infant, medicine.disease, RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase, Confidence interval, Pneumonia, 030104 developmental biology, business
Abstract

On 21 February 2020, a resident of the municipality of Vo', a small town near Padua (Italy), died of pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection1. This was the first coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)-related death detected in Italy since the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province2. In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days3. Here we collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo' at two consecutive time points. From the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-3.3%). From the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.8%). Notably, 42.5% (95% CI: 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (that is, did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards). The mean serial interval was 7.2 days (95% CI: 5.9-9.6). We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (P = 0.62 and 0.74 for E and RdRp genes, respectively, exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test). This study sheds light on the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, their infectivity (as measured by the viral load) and provides insights into its transmission dynamics and the efficacy of the implemented control measures.

Published
2020
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46. How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?

Author

Londono, Susy Echeverria, primary, Li, Xiang, additional, Toor, Jaspreet, additional, Villiers, Margaret J. de, additional, Nayagam, Shevanthi, additional, Hallett, Timothy B., additional, Abbas, Kaja, additional, Jit, Mark, additional, Klepac, Petra, additional, Jean, Kévin, additional, Garske, Tini, additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, and Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional

Published
2021
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47. Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study

Author

Li, Xiang, primary, Mukandavire, Christinah, additional, Cucunubá, Zulma M, additional, Echeverria Londono, Susy, additional, Abbas, Kaja, additional, Clapham, Hannah E, additional, Jit, Mark, additional, Johnson, Hope L, additional, Papadopoulos, Timos, additional, Vynnycky, Emilia, additional, Brisson, Marc, additional, Carter, Emily D, additional, Clark, Andrew, additional, de Villiers, Margaret J, additional, Eilertson, Kirsten, additional, Ferrari, Matthew J, additional, Gamkrelidze, Ivane, additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A M, additional, Grassly, Nicholas C, additional, Hallett, Timothy B, additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Jackson, Michael L, additional, Jean, Kévin, additional, Karachaliou, Andromachi, additional, Klepac, Petra, additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Li, Xi, additional, Moore, Sean M, additional, Nayagam, Shevanthi, additional, Nguyen, Duy Manh, additional, Razavi, Homie, additional, Razavi-Shearer, Devin, additional, Resch, Stephen, additional, Sanderson, Colin, additional, Sweet, Steven, additional, Sy, Stephen, additional, Tam, Yvonne, additional, Tanvir, Hira, additional, Tran, Quan Minh, additional, Trotter, Caroline L, additional, Truelove, Shaun, additional, van Zandvoort, Kevin, additional, Verguet, Stéphane, additional, Walker, Neff, additional, Winter, Amy, additional, Woodruff, Kim, additional, Ferguson, Neil M, additional, and Garske, Tini, additional

Published
2021
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48. The global burden of yellow fever

Author

Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., primary, Hamlet, Arran T. P., additional, Jean, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Daniel Garkauskas, additional, Cibrelus, Laurence, additional, Garske, Tini, additional, and Ferguson, Neil M., additional

Published
2020
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49. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China

Author

Thompson, Hayley A, primary, Imai, Natsuko, additional, Dighe, Amy, additional, Ainslie, Kylie E C, additional, Baguelin, Marc, additional, Bhatia, Sangeeta, additional, Bhatt, Samir, additional, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, additional, Boyd, Olivia, additional, Brazeau, Nicholas F, additional, Cattarino, Lorenzo, additional, Cooper, Laura V, additional, Coupland, Helen, additional, Cucunuba, Zulma, additional, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, additional, Djaafara, Bimandra, additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, van Elsland, Sabine, additional, FitzJohn, Richard, additional, Fu, Han, additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A M, additional, Green, Will, additional, Hallett, Timothy, additional, Hamlet, Arran, additional, Haw, David, additional, Hayes, Sarah, additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Jeffrey, Benjamin, additional, Knock, Edward, additional, Laydon, Daniel J, additional, Lees, John, additional, Mangal, Tara D, additional, Mellan, Thomas, additional, Mishra, Swapnil, additional, Mousa, Andria, additional, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, additional, Nouvellet, Pierre, additional, Okell, Lucy, additional, Parag, Kris V, additional, Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Unwin, H Juliette T, additional, Verity, Robert, additional, Vollmer, Michaela, additional, Volz, Erik, additional, Walker, Patrick G T, additional, Walters, Caroline, additional, Wang, Haowei, additional, Wang, Yuanrong, additional, Watson, Oliver J, additional, Whittaker, Charles, additional, Whittles, Lilith K, additional, Winskill, Peter, additional, Xi, Xiaoyue, additional, Donnelly, Christl A, additional, and Ferguson, Neil M, additional

Published
2020
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50. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries

Author

Walker, Patrick G. T., primary, Whittaker, Charles, additional, Watson, Oliver J., additional, Baguelin, Marc, additional, Winskill, Peter, additional, Hamlet, Arran, additional, Djafaara, Bimandra A., additional, Cucunubá, Zulma, additional, Olivera Mesa, Daniela, additional, Green, Will, additional, Thompson, Hayley, additional, Nayagam, Shevanthi, additional, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., additional, Bhatia, Sangeeta, additional, Bhatt, Samir, additional, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, additional, Boyd, Olivia, additional, Brazeau, Nicholas F., additional, Cattarino, Lorenzo, additional, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, additional, Dighe, Amy, additional, Donnelly, Christl A., additional, Dorigatti, Ilaria, additional, van Elsland, Sabine L., additional, FitzJohn, Rich, additional, Fu, Han, additional, Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., additional, Geidelberg, Lily, additional, Grassly, Nicholas, additional, Haw, David, additional, Hayes, Sarah, additional, Hinsley, Wes, additional, Imai, Natsuko, additional, Jorgensen, David, additional, Knock, Edward, additional, Laydon, Daniel, additional, Mishra, Swapnil, additional, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, additional, Okell, Lucy C., additional, Unwin, H. Juliette, additional, Verity, Robert, additional, Vollmer, Michaela, additional, Walters, Caroline E., additional, Wang, Haowei, additional, Wang, Yuanrong, additional, Xi, Xiaoyue, additional, Lalloo, David G., additional, Ferguson, Neil M., additional, and Ghani, Azra C., additional

Published
2020
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