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We produced a globally distributed catalog of earthquakes and nuclear explosions with calibrated hypocenters, referred to as the Global Catalog of Calibrated Earthquake Locations (GCCEL). This dataset currently contains 18,782 events in 289 clusters with >3.2 million arrival times observed at 19,258 stations. The term “calibrated” refers to the property that the hypocenters are minimally biased by unknown Earth structure. In addition, we calculate uncertainties using empirically determined variability of the arrival-time data itself, specific to each calibrated cluster of hypocenters. Outliers in the arrival-time dataset are removed based on measured variability of the data. In each cluster, we estimate the empirically determined uncertainty for each set of station-phase arrival times. We use a version of the hypocentroidal decomposition multiple event relocation algorithm specifically adapted for calibrated relocations of clusters of seismic events. Most clusters are calibrated by fitting the subset of direct crustal first arrivals (Pg and Sg) with a locally appropriate travel-time model to estimate the cluster hypocentroid. A few clusters are calibrated by aligning the pattern of relative locations in space and time with one or more events for which a ground-truth hypocenter is available from an independent source with known uncertainty, such as a nuclear explosion. Epicentral uncertainties in GCCEL typically range from 1 to 5 km with a 90% confidence interval. Most events have depth constraint from one or more sources, usually with an uncertainty of ≤5 km. GCCEL is a significant resource for research at local, regional, and global scales because it provides minimally biased absolute hypocenters, meaningful associated error estimates, and curated arrival times as a reference dataset that can be used as prior constraints in the development of new regional, national, and global earthquake catalogs; validation of new location techniques; and the generation of advanced Earth models.

We present an updated ground-motion model (GMM) for Mw 6–9 earthquakes using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of the peak ground displacement (PGD). Earthquake GMMs inform a range of Earth science and engineering applications, including source characterization, seismic hazard evaluations, loss estimates, and seismic design standards. A typical GMM is characterized by simplified metrics describing the earthquake source (magnitude), observation distance, and site terms. Most often, GMMs are derived from broadband seismometer and accelerometer observations, yet during strong shaking, these traditional seismic instruments are affected by baseline offsets, leading to inaccurate recordings of low-frequency ground motions such as displacement. The incorporation of geodetic data sources, particularly for characterizing the unsaturated ground displacement of large-magnitude events, has proven valuable as a complement to traditional seismic approaches and led to the development of an initial point-source GMM based on PGD estimated from high-rate GNSS data. Here, we improve the existing GMM to more effectively account for fault finiteness, slip heterogeneity, and observation distance. We evaluate the limitations of the currently available GNSS earthquake data set to calibrate the GMM. In particular, the observed earthquake data set is lacking in observations within 100 km of large-magnitude events (Mw>8), inhibiting evaluation of fault dimensions for earthquakes too large to be represented as point sources in the near field. To that end, we separately consider previously validated synthetic GNSS waveforms within 10–1000 km of Mw 7.8–9.3 Cascadia subduction zone scenario ruptures. The synthetic data highlight the importance of fault distance rather than point-source metrics and improve our preparedness for large-magnitude earthquakes with spatiotemporal qualities unlike those in our existing data set.

Over the past two decades, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) has overcome many operational challenges. These range from minor disruptions, such as power outages, to significant operational changes, including system reconfiguration to handle unique earthquake sequences and the need to handle distributed work during a pandemic. Our ability to overcome crises is built on the development and implementation of a continuity of operations plan, well-designed infrastructure, adaptive software systems, experienced staff, and extensive collaboration. The NEIC does not operate in a vacuum but benefits from contributions of United States and international seismic networks. Similarly, the overall resilience of earthquake monitoring in the United States and around the globe benefits from the NEIC’s role as the national center for the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Here, we highlight significant adaptations the NEIC has made in the face of crises. We discuss the COVID-19 pandemic, which represents the most significant operational crisis to impact the NEIC. The NEIC has maintained continuous operations during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by shifting from a fully onsite operations center to a distributed hybrid of onsite and telework staffing. We then discuss cases in which the NEIC has supported regional monitoring in the face of significant crises. In 2018, the NEIC assisted the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory with the Kīlauea volcano eruption by responding to large events, implementing contingency monitoring procedures, and calculating moment magnitudes for the low-frequency caldera collapses. Impacts of a crisis extend beyond the immediate response and often require a significant postevent assessment and a rebuilding phase. After the 2017 Hurricane Maria, the NEIC, the USGS National Strong-Motion Program, and the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory worked with the Puerto Rico Seismic Network and the Puerto Rico Strong-Motion program to assess, plan, and implement upgrades at sites that experienced storm damage.

SUMMARYThe role of subduction zone geometry in the nucleation and propagation of great-sized earthquake ruptures is an important topic for earthquake hazard, since knowing how big an earthquake can be on a given fault is fundamentally important. Past studies have shown subducting bathymetric features (e.g. ridges, fracture zones, seamount chains) may arrest a propagating rupture. Other studies have correlated the occurrence of great-sized earthquakes with flat megathrusts and homogenous stresses over large distances. It remains unclear, however, how subduction zone geometry and the potential for great-sized earthquakes (M 8+) are quantifiably linked—or indeed whether they can be. Here, we examine the potential role of subduction zone geometry in limiting earthquake rupture by mapping the planarity of seismogenic zones in the Slab2 subduction zone geometry database. We build from the observation that historical great-sized earthquakes have preferentially occurred where the surrounding megathrust is broadly planar, and we use this relationship to search for geometrically similar features elsewhere in subduction zones worldwide. Assuming geometry exerts a primary control on earthquake propagation and termination, we estimate the potential size distribution of large (M 7+) earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude along global subduction faults based on geometrical features alone. Our results suggest that most subduction zones are capable of hosting great-sized earthquakes over much of their area. Many bathymetric features previously identified as barriers are indistinguishable from the surrounding megathrust from the perspective of slab curvature, meaning that they either do not play an important role in arresting earthquake rupture or that their influence on slab geometry at depth is not resolvable at the spatial scale of our subduction zone geometry models.

In the minutes to hours after a major earthquake, such as the recent 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage event, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produces a suite of interconnected earthquake products that provides diverse information ranging from basic earthquake source parameters to loss estimates. The 2018 Anchorage earthquake is the first major domestic earthquake to occur since several new USGS products have been developed, thus providing an opportunity to discuss the newly expanded USGS earthquake product suite, its timeliness, performance, and reception. Overall, the products were relatively timely, accurate, well received, and widely used, including by the media, who used information and visualizations from many products to frame their early reporting. One downside of the codependence of multiple products is that reasonable updates to upstream products (e.g., magnitude and source characterization) can result in significant changes to downstream products; this was the case for the Anchorage earthquake. However, the coverage of strong‐motion stations and felt reports was so dense that the ShakeMap and downstream products were relatively insensitive to changes in magnitude or fault‐plane orientation once the ground‐motion data were available. Shaking and loss indicators initially fluctuated in the first hour or two after the earthquake, but they stabilized quickly. To understand how the products are being used and how effectively they are being communicated, we analyze the media coverage of USGS earthquake products. Most references to USGS products occurred within the first 48 hr after the event. The lack of coverage after 48 hr could indicate that longer‐term products addressing what actions the USGS is taking or what early reconnaissance has revealed might be useful for those people wanting additional information about the earthquake.

Here, we revisit the issue of slip distributions modeled as spatially random fields. For each earthquake in the U.S. Geological Survey’s database of finite‐fault models (M 7–9), we measure the parameters of a best‐fitting von Karman autocorrelation function. We explore the source scaling properties of the correlation lengths and the Hurst exponent. We find that the behavior previously observed for more moderate events generally still holds at higher magnitudes and larger source dimensions. However, we find slightly larger correlation lengths and a lower mean Hurst exponent. The most important effect of these differences is that using our preferred parameters to generate stochastic slip models will lead to slightly larger asperities and more small‐scale structure in between them. We also define a new scaling relationship for the standard deviation of slip necessary for a full description of a spatially random field. Here, we also explore the patterns of where hypocenters are located within a fault. We find that strongly unilateral ruptures are comparatively rare and propose several probability density functions that can be used to randomly assign hypocentral positions when creating stochastic sources. When compared to simply randomly assigning the hypocenter anywhere on the fault, this leads to overall shorter duration sources.

The 12 November 2017 Mw 7.3 Ezgeleh‐Sarpolzahab earthquake is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt by a factor of ∼10 in seismic moment. Exploiting local, regional, and teleseismic data and synthetic aperture radar interferometry imagery, we characterize the rupture, its aftershock sequence, background seismicity, and regional tectonics. The mainshock ruptured slowly (∼2 km/s), unilaterally southward, for ∼40 km along an oblique (dextral‐thrust) fault that dips ∼14°E beneath the northwestern Lurestan arc. Slip is confined to basement depths of ∼12–18 km, resolvably beneath the sedimentary cover which is ∼8 km thick in this area. The gentle dip angle and basement location allow for a broad slip area, explaining the large magnitude relative to earthquakes in the main Fars arc of the Zagros, where shallower, steeper faults are limited in rupture extent by weak sedimentary layers. Early aftershocks concentrate around the southern and western edges of the mainshock slip area and therefore cluster in the direction of rupture propagation, implying a contribution from dynamic triggering. A cluster of events ∼100 km to the south near Mandali (Iraq) reactivated the ∼50° dipping Zagros Foredeep Fault. The basement fault responsible for the Ezgeleh‐Sarpolzahab earthquake probably accounts for the ∼1 km elevation contrast between the Lurestan arc and the Kirkuk embayment but is distinct from sections of the Mountain Front Fault that define frontal escarpments elsewhere in the Zagros. It may be related to a seismic interface underlying the central and southern Lurestan arc, and a key concern is whether or not the more extensive regional structure is also seismogenic.

On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, the editors would like to sincerely thank those who reviewed the manuscripts for Geophysical Research Letters in 2020. The hours reading and commenting on manuscripts not only improve the manuscripts but also increase the scientific rigor of future research in the field. We particularly appreciate the timely reviews in light of the demands imposed by the rapid review process at Geophysical Research Letters. The COVID pandemic imposed additional stresses on the review process, as many reviewers had to juggle increased family commitments, hours of online meetings, remote work and instruction, lack of physical access to library resources, and other hardships to maintain the quality and timeliness of their reviews. Although we witnessed an increase in the number of submissions, the average number of days to complete a review increased by less than one day!! That says a lot about the diligence of our reviewers. We deeply appreciate their contributions in these challenging times. With the advent of AGU's data policy, many reviewers have also helped immensely to evaluate the accessibility and availability of data, and many have provided insightful comments that helped to improve the data presentation and quality. We greatly appreciate the assistance of the reviewers in advancing open science, which is a key objective of AGU's data policy. Individuals in italics provided three or more reviews for Geophysical Research Letters during the year. In total, 5,177 referees contributed to 8,786 individual reviews. Thank you again. We look forward to the coming year of exciting advances in the field and communicating those advances to our community and to the broader public.

Machine-learning algorithms continue to show promise in their application to seismic processing. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) is exploring the adoption of these tools to aid in simultaneous local, regional, and global real-time earthquake monitoring. As a first step, we describe a simple framework to incorporate deep-learning tools into NEIC operations. Automatic seismic arrival detections made from standard picking methods (e.g., short-term average/long-term average [STA/LTA]) are fed to trained neural network models to improve automatic seismic-arrival (pick) timing and estimate seismic-arrival phase type and source-station distances. These additional data are used to improve the capabilities of the NEIC associator. We compile a dataset of 1.3 million seismic-phase arrivals that represent a globally distributed set of source-station paths covering a range of phase types, magnitudes, and source distances. We train three separate convolutional neural network models to predict arrival time onset, phase type, and distance. We validate the performance of the trained networks on a subset of our existing dataset and further extend validation by exploring the model performance when applied to NEIC automatic pick data feeds. We show that the information provided by these models can be useful in downstream event processing, specifically in seismic-phase association, resulting in reduced false associations and improved location estimates.

On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, the editors would like to sincerely thank those who reviewed the manuscripts for Geophysical Research Letters in 2019. The hours reading and commenting on manuscripts not only improve the manuscripts but also increase the scientific rigor of future research in the field. We particularly appreciate the timely reviews in light of the demands imposed by the rapid review process at Geophysical Research Letters. With the revival of the “major revisions” decisions, we appreciate the reviewers' efforts on multiple versions of some manuscripts. With the advent of AGU's data policy, many reviewers have helped immensely to evaluate the accessibility and availability of data associated with the papers they have reviewed, and many have provided insightful comments that helped to improve the data presentation and quality. We greatly appreciate the assistance of the reviewers in advancing open science, which is a key objective of AGU's data policy. Many of those listed below went beyond and reviewed three or more manuscripts for our journal, and those are indicated in italics.

The heterogeneous seafloor topography of the Nazca Plate as it enters the Ecuador subduction zone provides an opportunity to document the influence of seafloor roughness on slip behavior and megathrust rupture. The 2016 M$_{w}$ 7.8 Pedernales Ecuador earthquake was followed by a rich and active postseismic sequence. An internationally coordinated rapid response effort installed a temporary seismic network to densify coastal stations of the permanent Ecuadorian national seismic network. A combination of 82 onshore short and intermediate period and broadband seismic stations and six ocean bottom seismometers recorded the postseismic Pedernales sequence for over a year after the mainshock. A robust earthquake catalog combined with calibrated relocations for a subset of magnitude ≥4 earthquakes shows pronounced spatial and temporal clustering. A range of slip behavior accommodates postseismic deformation including earthquakes, slow slip events, and earthquake swarms. Models of plate coupling and the consistency of earthquake clustering and slip behavior through multiple seismic cycles reveal a segmented subduction zone primarily controlled by subducted seafloor topography, accreted terranes, and inherited structure. The 2016 Pedernales mainshock triggered moderate to strong earthquakes (5 ≤ M ≤ 7) and earthquake swarms north of the mainshock rupture close to the epicenter of the 1906M$_{w}$ 8.8 earthquake and in the segment of the subduction zone that ruptured in 1958 in a M$_{w}$ 7.7 earthquake.

Author(s): Rajaram, H; Diffenbaugh, N; Camargo, S; Cardenas, MB; Carey, R; Cobb, K; Cory, R; Cronin, M; Dombard, A; Donohue, K; Flesch, L; Giannini, A; Hayes, G; Hogg, A; Ilyina, T; Ivanov, V; Jacobsen, S; Korte, M; Lu, G; Morlighem, M; Magnusdottir, G; Newman, A; Opher, M; Passalacqua, P; Patricola, C; Ritsema, J; Sprintall, J; Su, H; Thornton, J; Williams, P; Yau, A | Abstract: On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, the Editors would like to sincerely thank those who reviewed manuscripts for Geophysical Research Letters in 2018. The hours reading and commenting on manuscripts not only improves the manuscripts but also increases the scientific rigor of future research in the field. We particularly appreciate the timely reviews, in light of the demands imposed by the rapid review process at Geophysical Research Letters. With the revival of the “major revisions” decisions, we appreciate the reviewers' efforts on multiple versions of some manuscripts. Many of those listed below went beyond and reviewed three or more manuscripts for our journal, and those are indicated in italics. In total, 4,484 referees contributed to 7,557 individual reviews in journal. Thank you again. We look forward to the coming year of exciting advances in the field and communicating those advances to our community and to the broader public.

SUMMARY Earthquake-based models of slab geometry are limited by the distribution of earthquakes within a subducting slab, which is often heterogeneous. The fast seismic velocity signature of slabs in tomography studies is independent of the distribution of earthquakes within the slab, providing a critical constraint on slab geometry when earthquakes are absent. In order to utilize this constraint, researchers typically hand-contour images of subducting slabs in tomography models, leading to a subjective final slab model. With this paper, we present an automated procedure for extracting slab geometry from teleseismic tomography volumes that limits this subjectivity and provides constraints on the structure of aseismic segments of slabs. This procedure is designed as a complement to earthquake-based slab models rather than as a replacement, which can help to broaden the extent of existing subduction zone geometry databases.

In earthquake dynamics there are two end member models of rupture: propagating cracks and self-healing pulses. These arise due to different properties of faults and have implications for seismic hazard; rupture mode controls near-field strong ground motions. Past studies favor the pulse-like mode of rupture; however, due to a variety of limitations, it has proven difficult to systematically establish their kinematic properties. Here, we synthesize observations from a database of >150 rupture models of earthquakes spanning M7-M9 processed in a uniform manner and show the magnitude scaling properties of these slip pulses indicates self-similarity. Further, we find that large and very large events are statistically distinguishable relatively early (at ~15 seconds) in the rupture process. This suggests that with dense regional geophysical networks strong ground motions from a large rupture can be identified before their onset across the source region.

In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaiso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M6.9 on April 24th, seemingly co-located with the last great-sized earthquake in the region - a M8.0 in March 1985. The history of large earthquakes in this region shows significant variation in rupture size and extent, typically highlighted by a juxtaposition of large ruptures interspersed with smaller magnitude sequences. We show that the 2017 sequence ruptured an area between the two main slip patches during the 1985 earthquake, re-rupturing a patch that had previously slipped during the October 1973 M6.5 earthquake sequence. A significant gap in historic ruptures exists directly to the south of the 2017 sequence, with large enough moment deficit to host a great-sized earthquake in the near future, if it is locked.

On 16 September 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone offshore of Illapel, Chile, generating an aftershock sequence with 14 Mw 6.0–7.0 events. A double source W phase moment tensor inversion consists of a Mw 7.2 subevent and the main Mw 8.2 phase. We determine two slip models for the mainshock, one using teleseismic broadband waveforms and the other using static GPS and InSAR surface displacements, which indicate high slip north of the epicenter and west-northwest of the epicenter near the oceanic trench. These models and slip distributions published in other studies suggest spatial slip uncertainties of ~25 km and have peak slip values that vary by a factor of 2. We relocate aftershock hypocenters using a Bayesian multiple-event relocation algorithm, revealing a cluster of aftershocks under the Chilean coast associated with deep (20–45 km depth) mainshock slip. Less vigorous aftershock activity also occurred near the trench and along strike of the main aftershock region. Most aftershocks are thrust-faulting events, except for normal-faulting events near the trench. Coulomb failure stress change amplitudes and signs are uncertain for aftershocks collocated with deeper mainshock slip; other aftershocks are more clearly associated with loading from the mainshock. These observations reveal a frictionally heterogeneous interface that ruptured in patches at seismogenic depths (associated with many aftershocks) and with homogeneous slip (and few aftershocks) up to the trench. This event likely triggered seismicity separate from the main slip region, including along-strike events on the megathrust and intraplate extensional events.

Alternative fault‐rupture‐scaling relationships are developed for M w 7.1–9.5 subduction interface earthquakes using a new database of consistently derived finite‐fault rupture models from teleseismic inversion. Scaling relationships are derived for rupture area, rupture length, rupture width, maximum slip, and average slip. These relationships apply width saturation for large‐magnitude interface earthquakes (approximately M w >8.6) for which the physical characteristics of subduction zones limit the depth extent of seismogenic rupture, and consequently, the down‐dip limit of strong ground motion generation. On average, the down‐dip rupture width for interface earthquakes saturates near 200 km (196 km on average). Accordingly, the reinterpretation of rupture‐area scaling for subduction interface earthquakes through the use of a bilinear scaling model suggests that rupture asperity area is less well correlated with magnitude for earthquakes M w >8.6. Consequently, the size of great‐magnitude earthquakes appears to be more strongly controlled by the average slip across asperities. The sensitivity of the interface scaling relationships is evaluated against geographic region (or subduction zone) and average dip along the rupture interface to assess the need for correction factors. Although regional perturbations in fault‐rupture scaling could be identified, statistical significance analyses suggest there is little rationale for implementing regional correction factors based on the limited number of interface rupture models available for each region. Fault‐rupture‐scaling relationships are also developed for intraslab (within the subducting slab), extensional outer‐rise and offshore strike‐slip environments. For these environments, the rupture width and area scaling properties yield smaller dimensions than interface ruptures for the corresponding magnitude. However, average and maximum slip metrics yield larger values than interface events. These observations reflect both the narrower fault widths and higher stress drops in these faulting environments. Although expressing significantly different rupture‐scaling properties from earthquakes in subduction environments, the characteristics of offshore strike‐slip earthquake ruptures compare similarly to commonly used rupture‐scaling relationships for onshore strike‐slip earthquakes. Electronic Supplement: Table of rupture parameters.

The 2008 Wells, Nevada, earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the contiguous United States outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock–aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey Preliminary Determination of Epicenters catalog with 1928 well‐located events. To create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the Bayesloc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite‐fault slip analysis of the mainshock using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite‐fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily up‐dip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of postmainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near‐surface offset. Electronic Supplement: Description of methods and figures of relocated aftershocks, interferograms, residuals, transformations, and seismic station locations.

The 3 September 2016, Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake was the largest recorded earthquake in the state of Oklahoma. Seismic and geodetic observations of the Pawnee sequence, including precise hypocenter locations and moment tensor modeling, shows that the Pawnee earthquake occurred on a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip basement fault that intersects the mapped right-lateral Labette fault zone. The Pawnee earthquake is part of an unprecedented increase in the earthquake rate in Oklahoma that is largely considered the result of the deep injection of waste fluids from oil and gas production. If this is, indeed, the case for the M5.8 Pawnee earthquake, then this would be the largest event to have been induced by fluid injection. Since 2015, Oklahoma has undergone wide-scale mitigation efforts primarily aimed at reducing injection volumes. Thus far in 2016, the rate of M3 and greater earthquakes has decreased as compared to 2015, while the cumulative moment—or energy released from earthquakes—has increased. This highlights the difficulty in earthquake hazard mitigation efforts given the poorly understood long-term diffusive effects of wastewater injection and their connection to seismicity.

The early stages of M7 to M9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete., Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M7 to M9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process—after about 10 s—large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished.

The September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake triggered a large tsunami, causing both economic losses and fatalities. To study the coastal effects of this earthquake, and to understand how such hazards might be accurately modeled in the future, different finite fault models of the Illapel rupture are used to define the initial condition for tsunami simulation. The numerical code Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) is employed to model the tsunami evolution through the Pacific Ocean. Because only a short time is available for emergency response, and since the earthquake and tsunami sources are close to the coast, gaining a rapid understanding of the near-field run-up behavior is highly relevant to Chile. Therefore, an analytical solution of the 2 + 1 D shallow water wave equations is considered. With this solution, we show that we can quickly estimate the run-up distribution along the coastline, to first order. After the earthquake and tsunami, field observations were measured in the surrounded coastal region, where the tsunami resulted in significant run-up. First, we compare the analytical and numerical solutions to test the accuracy of the analytical approach and the field observations, implying the analytic approach can accurately model tsunami run-up after an earthquake, without sacrificing the time necessary for a full numerical inversion. Then, we compare both with field run-up measurements. We observe the consistency between the two approaches. To complete the analysis, a tsunami source inversion is performed using run-up field measurements only. These inversion results are compared with seismic models, and are shown to capture the broad-scale details of those models, without the necessity of the detailed data sets they invert.

Rapid and accurate characterization of an earthquake source is an extremely important and ever evolving field of research. Within this field, source inversion of the W-phase has recently been shown to be an effective technique, which can be efficiently implemented in real-time. An extension to the W-phase source inversion is presented in which two point sources are derived to better characterize complex earthquakes. A single source inversion followed by a double point source inversion with centroid locations fixed at the single source solution location can be efficiently run as part of earthquake monitoring network operational procedures. In order to determine the most appropriate solution, i.e., whether an earthquake is most appropriately described by a single source or a double source, an Akaike information criterion (AIC) test is performed. Analyses of all earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 and greater occurring since January 2000 were performed with extended analyses of the September 29, 2009 magnitude 8.1 Samoa earthquake and the April 19, 2014 magnitude 7.5 Papua New Guinea earthquake. The AIC test is shown to be able to accurately select the most appropriate model and the selected W-phase inversion is shown to yield reliable solutions that match published analyses of the same events.

Detailing subduction zones Subduction zones are responsible for the most-damaging and tsunami-generating great earthquakes. Hayes et al. updated their Slab1.0 model to include all seismically active subduction zones, including geometrically complex regions like the Philippines. The new model, Slab2, details the geometry of 24 million square kilometers of subducted slabs, from ocean trench to upper mantle. The model will be vital for fully understanding seismic hazard in some of the most populated regions in the world. Science , this issue p. 58

Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24 hrs/day and 7 days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

The 24 September 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake ruptured a ~ 200 km-long stretch of the Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan and produced the second-largest lateral surface displacement observed for a continental strike-slip earthquake. We remotely measured surface deformation associated with this event using high-resolution (0.5 m) pre- and post-event satellite optical imagery. We document left lateral, near-field, on-fault offsets (10 m from fault) using 309 laterally offset piercing points, such as streams, terrace risers, and roads. Peak near-field displacement is 13.6 + 2.5/− 3.4 m. We characterize off-fault deformation by measuring medium- ( 350 m from fault) displacement using manual (259 measurements) and automated image cross-correlation methods, respectively. Off-fault peak lateral displacement values are ~ 15 m and exceed on-fault displacement magnitudes for ~ 85% of the rupture length. Our observations suggest that for this rupture, coseismic surface displacement typically increases with distance away from the surface trace of the fault; however, nearly 100% of total surface displacement occurs within a few hundred meters of the primary fault trace. Furthermore, off-fault displacement accounts for, on average, 28% of the total displacement but exhibits a highly heterogeneous along-strike pattern. The best agreement between near-field and far-field displacements generally corresponds to the narrowest fault zone widths. Our analysis demonstrates significant and heterogeneous mismatches between on- and off-fault coseismic deformation, and we conclude that this phenomenon should be considered in hazard models based on geologically determined on-fault slip rates.

Many efforts have been made to quickly estimate the maximum runup height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task because of the time it takes to construct an accurate tsunami model using real-time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify the knowledge of the earthquake source. Here we show how to predict tsunami runup from any seismic source model using an analytic solution that is specifically designed for subduction zones with a well-defined geometry, i.e., Chile, Japan, Nicaragua, and Alaska. The main idea of this work is to provide a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for speed. The solutions we present for large earthquakes appear promising. Here runup models are computed for the following: the 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua earthquake, the 2001 Mw 8.4 Peru earthquake, the 2003 Mw 8.3 Hokkaido earthquake, the 2007 Mw 8.1 Peru earthquake, the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake. The maximum runup estimations are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 9 m for Nicaragua, 8 m for Peru (2001), 32 m for Maule, 41 m for Tohoku, and 4.1 m for Iquique. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real-time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first minutes after the occurrence of similar events. Thus, such calculations will provide faster runup information than is available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases or past events of premodeled seismic sources.

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.

Deformation is commonly accommodated by strain partitioning on multiple, independent strike-slip and dip-slip faults in continental settings of oblique plate convergence. As a corollary, individual faults tend to exhibit one sense of slip – normal, reverse, or strike-slip – until whole-scale changes in boundary conditions reactivate preexisting faults in a new deformation regime. In this study, we show that a single continental fault may instead partition oblique strain by alternatively slipping in a strike-slip or a dip-slip sense during independent fault slip events. We use 0.5 m resolution optical imagery and sub-pixel correlation analysis of the 200 + km 2013 M w 7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake to document co-seismic surface slip characteristics and Quaternary tectonic geomorphology along the causative Hoshab fault. We find that the 2013 earthquake, which involved a ∼6:1 strike-slip to dip-slip ratio, ruptured a structurally segmented fault. Quaternary geomorphic indicators of gross fault-zone morphology reveal both reverse-slip and strike-slip deformation in the rupture area of the 2013 earthquake that varies systematically along fault strike despite nearly pure strike-slip motion in 2013. Observations of along-strike variations in range front relief and geomorphic offsets suggest that the Hoshab fault accommodates a substantial reverse component of fault slip in the Quaternary, especially along the southern section of the 2013 rupture. We surmise that Quaternary bimodal slip along the Hoshab fault is promoted by a combination of the arcuate geometry of the Hoshab fault, the frictional weakness of the Makran accretionary prism, and time variable loading conditions from adjacent earthquakes and plate interactions.

The sharp increase in seismicity over a broad region of central Oklahoma has raised concerns regarding the source of the activity and its potential hazard to local communities and energy-industry infrastructure. Efforts to monitor and characterize the earthquake sequences in central Oklahoma are reviewed. Since early 2010, numerous organizations have deployed temporary portable seismic stations in central Oklahoma to record the evolving seismicity. A multiple-event relocation method is applied to produce a catalog of central Oklahoma earthquakes from late 2009 into early 2015. Regional moment tensor (RMT) source parameters were determined for the largest and best-recorded earthquakes. Combining RMT results with relocated seismicity enabled determination of the length, depth, and style of faulting occurring on reactivated subsurface fault systems. It was found that the majority of earthquakes occur on near-vertical, optimally oriented (northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast) strike-slip faults in the shallow crystalline basement. In 2014, 17 earthquakes occurred with magnitudes of 4 or larger. It is suggested that these recently reactivated fault systems pose the greatest potential hazard to the region.

Large earthquakes cause other quakes near and far. Analyses of quakes in Pakistan and Chile suggest that such triggering can occur almost instantaneously, making triggered events hard to detect, and potentially enhancing the associated hazards.

The Raton Basin of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico is an actively produced hydrocarbon basin that has experienced increased seismicity since 2001, including the August 2011 Mw5.3 Trinidad normal faulting event. Following the 2011 earthquake, regional seismic observations were used to relocate 21 events, including the 2011 main shock, two foreshocks, and 13 aftershocks. Additionally, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations of both the 2011 event and preevent basin deformation place constraint on the spatial kinematics of the 2011 event and localized basin subsidence due to ground water or gas withdrawal. We find that the 2011 earthquake ruptured an 8–10 km long segment of a normal fault at depths of 1.5–6.0 km within the crystalline Precambrian basement underlying the Raton Basin sedimentary rocks. The earthquake also nucleated within the crystalline basement in the vicinity of an active wastewater disposal site. The ensuing aftershock sequence demonstrated statistical properties expected for intraplate earthquakes, though the length of the 2011 earthquake is unexpectedly long for an Mw5.3 event, suggesting that wastewater disposal may have triggered a low stress drop, otherwise natural earthquake. Additionally, preevent and postevent seismicity in the Raton Basin spatially correlates to regions of subsidence observed in InSAR time series analysis. While these observations cannot discern a causal link between hydrocarbon production and seismicity, they constrain spatial relationships between active basin deformation and geological and anthropogenic features. Furthermore, the InSAR observations highlight the utility of space-based geodetic observations for monitoring and assessing anthropogenically induced and triggered deformation.

The September 2013 M w 7.7 Balochistan earthquake ruptured a ∼200-km-long segment of the curved Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan with 10 ± 0.2 m of peak sinistral and ∼ 1.7 ± 0.8 m of dip slip. This rupture is unusual because the fault dips 60 ± 15 ° towards the focus of a small circle centered in northwest Pakistan, and, despite a 30° increase in obliquity along strike, the ratios of strike and dip slip remain relatively uniform. Surface displacements and geodetic and teleseismic source inversions quantify a bilateral rupture that propagated rapidly at shallow depths from a transtensional jog near the northern end of the rupture. Static friction prior to rupture was unusually weak ( μ 0.05 ), and friction may have approached zero during dynamic rupture. Here we show that the inward-dipping Hoshab fault defines the northern rim of a structural unit in southeast Makran that rotates – akin to a 2-D ball-and-socket joint – counter-clockwise in response to India's penetration into the Eurasian plate. This rotation accounts for complexity in the Chaman fault system and, in principle, reduces seismic potential near Karachi; nonetheless, these findings highlight deficiencies in strong ground motion equations and tectonic models that invoke Anderson–Byerlee faulting predictions.

Aseismic or slow slip events have been observed in many subduction zones, but whether they affect the occurrence of earthquakes or result from stress changes caused by nearby events is unclear. In an area lacking direct geodetic observations, inferences can be made from seismological studies of co-seismic slip, associated stress changes and the spatiotemporal nature of aftershocks. These observations indicate that the February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Islands earthquake may have triggered slow or aseismic slip on an adjacent section of the subduction thrust over the following hours to days. This aseismic event was equivalent to Mw 7.6, significantly larger than any earthquakes in the aftershock sequence. The aseismic slip was situated within the seismogenic portion of the subduction interface, and must have occurred to the south of the main seismic slip and most aftershocks in order to promote right-lateral faulting in the upper plate, the dominant deformation style of the aftershock sequence. This plate boundary segment can support either stable sliding (aseismic) or stick-slip (seismic) deformation in response to different driving conditions. The complete lack of aftershocks on the thrust interface implies this pair of megathrust slip episodes (seismic and aseismic) released a substantial portion of the stored strain on the northernmost section of the Vanuatu subduction zone.

[1] Large intermediate-depth, intraslab normal-faulting earthquakes are a common, dangerous, but poorly understood phenomenon in subduction zones owing to a paucity of near-field geophysical observations. Seismological and high-quality geodetic observations of the 2013 Mw7.7 Khash, Iran earthquake reveal that at least half of the oceanic lithosphere, including the mantle and entire crust, ruptured in a single earthquake, confirming with unprecedented resolution that large earthquakes can nucleate in and rupture through the oceanic mantle. A rupture width of at least 55 km is required to explain both Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations and teleseismic waveforms, with the majority of slip occurring in the oceanic mantle. Combining our well-constrained earthquake slip distributions with the causative fault orientation and geometry of the local subduction zone, we hypothesize that the Khash earthquake likely occurred as the combined result of slab-bending forces and dehydration of hydrous minerals along a preexisting fault formed prior to subduction.

Geophysical measurements are often acquired at scattered locations in space. Therefore, interpolating or fitting the sparsely sampled data as a uniform function of space (a procedure commonly known as gridding) is a ubiquitous problem in geophysics. Most gridding methods require a model of spatial correlation for data. This spatial correlation model can often be inferred from some sort of secondary information, which may also be sparsely sampled in space. In this paper, we present a new method to model the geometry of a subducting slab in which we use a data‐fitting approach to address the problem. Earthquakes and active‐source seismic surveys provide estimates of depths of subducting slabs but only at scattered locations. In addition to estimates of depths from earthquake locations, focal mechanisms of subduction zone earthquakes also provide estimates of the strikes of the subducting slab on which they occur. We use these spatially sparse strike samples and the Earth’s curved surface geometry to infer a model for spatial correlation that guides a blended neighbor interpolation of slab depths. We then modify the interpolation method to account for the uncertainties associated with the depth estimates.

Online material : Timeline movie The M 9.0 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and associated tsunami near the east coast of the island of Honshu caused tens of thousands of deaths and potentially over one trillion dollars in damage, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters ever recorded. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS NEIC), through its responsibility to respond to all significant global earthquakes as part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, quickly produced and distributed a suite of earthquake information products to inform emergency responders, the public, the media, and the academic community of the earthquake's potential impact and to provide scientific background for the interpretation of the event's tectonic context and potential for future hazard. Here we present a timeline of the NEIC response to this devastating earthquake in the context of rapidly evolving information emanating from the global earthquake-response community. The timeline includes both internal and publicly distributed products, the relative timing of which highlights the inherent tradeoffs between the requirement to provide timely alerts and the necessity for accurate, authoritative information. The timeline also documents the iterative and evolutionary nature of the standard products produced by the NEIC and includes a behind-the-scenes look at the decisions, data, and analysis tools that drive our rapid product distribution. The NEIC operates a 24/7 service dedicated to the rapid determination of the location and size of all significant earthquakes worldwide and to the immediate dissemination of this information to concerned national and international agencies, scientists, critical facilities, and the general public. Within its 24/7 operations, the NEIC is constantly staffed by at least two geophysicists who are responsible for reviewing and reporting all magnitude 5 or larger events within 20 minutes of origin time. These analysts also field incoming calls from the …

SUMMARY Studies of subduction zone seismogenesis and tsunami potential, particularly of large subduction zones, have recently seen a resurgence after the great 2004 earthquake and tsunami offshore of Sumatra, yet these global studies have generally neglected the tsunami potential of small subduction zones such as the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand. Here, we study one such relatively small subduction zone by analysing the historical seismicity over the entire plate boundary region south of New Zealand, using these data to determine the seismic moment deficit of the subduction zone over the past ∼100 yr. Our calculations indicate unreleased moment equivalent to a magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake, suggesting this subduction zone has the potential to host a great, tsunamigenic event. We model this tsunami hazard and find that a tsunami caused by a great earthquake on the Puysegur subduction zone would pose threats to the coasts of southern and western South Island, New Zealand, Tasmania and southeastern Australia, nearly 2000 km distant.

Initially, the devastating Mw 7.0, 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillo‐Plantain Garden fault zone. Here, we combine seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process involved slip on multiple faults. Primary surface deformation was driven by rupture on blind thrust faults with only minor, deep, lateral slip along or near the main Enriquillo‐Plantain Garden fault zone; thus the event only partially relieved centuries of accumulated left-lateral strain on a small part of the plate-boundary system. Together with the predominance of shallow off-fault thrusting, the lack of surface deformation implies that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Enriquillo‐Plantain Garden fault zone, as occurred in inferred Holocene and probable historic events. We suggest that the geological signature of this earthquake—broad warping and coastal deformation rather than surface rupture along the main fault zone—will not be easily recognized by standard palaeoseismic studies. We conclude that similarly complex earthquakes in tectonic environments that accommodate both translation and convergence—such as the San Andreas fault through the Transverse Ranges of California—may be missing from the prehistoric earthquake record.

SUMMARY A key step in many earthquake source inversions requires knowledge of the geometry of the fault surface on which the earthquake occurred. Our knowledge of this surface is often uncertain, however, and as a result fault geometry misinterpretation can map into significant error in the final temporal and spatial slip patterns of these inversions. Relying solely on an initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism can be problematic when establishing rupture characteristics needed for rapid tsunami and ground shaking estimates. Here, we attempt to improve the quality of fast finite-fault inversion results by combining several independent and complementary data sets to more accurately constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane of subducting slabs. Unlike previous analyses aimed at defining the general form of the plate interface, we require mechanisms and locations of the seismicity considered in our inversions to be consistent with their occurrence on the plate interface, by limiting events to those with well-constrained depths and with CMT solutions indicative of shallow-dip thrust faulting. We construct probability density functions about each location based on formal assumptions of their depth uncertainty and use these constraints to solve for the ‘most-likely’ fault plane. Examples are shown for the trench in the source region of the Mw 8.6 Southern Sumatra earthquake of March 2005, and for the Northern Chile Trench in the source region of the November 2007 Antofagasta earthquake. We also show examples using only the historic catalogues in regions without recent great earthquakes, such as the Japan and Kamchatka Trenches. In most cases, this method produces a fault plane that is more consistent with all of the data available than is the plane implied by the initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism. Using the aggregated data sets, we have developed an algorithm to rapidly determine more accurate initial fault plane geometries for source inversions of future earthquakes.