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The World Health Organization (WHO) endorsed the use of triple-drug mass drug administration (MDA) regimen with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (commonly abbreviated as IDA) to accelerate the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem in settings where onchocerciasis is not co-endemic. The National Programme for Elimination of LF (NPELF) in Kenya was among the first adopters of the IDA-MDA and two annual rounds were provided in 2018 and 2019 to the residents of Lamu County and Jomvu sub-County in the coast region. This study documented the feasibility of successfully delivering the two rounds of IDA-MDA. An operational research study was undertaken to determine efficient sampling strategies, indicators, and the appropriate population groups that could be used for the monitoring and evaluation of LF programs using IDA-MDA for the elimination of the disease as a public health problem. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted at baseline in 2018 before IDA-MDA and an impact assessment 17 months after the second round of IDA-MDA. The reported epidemiological treatment coverage was at least 80% in all implementation units during each round of IDA-MDA. Blood samples were tested for filarial antigenemia using commercial Filariasis Test Strips (FTS) and any individual found to be positive was tested again at night for the presence of microfilariae in finger prick blood smears using microscopy. The overall prevalence of circulating filarial antigen (CFA) was relatively low at the baseline survey with Jomvu having 1.39% (95% CI: 0.91, 2.11) and Lamu having 0.48% (95% CI: 0.21, 1.13). Significant reduction in CFA prevalence was observed during the impact assessment after the two annual rounds of mass treatment. The overall relative reduction (%) in CFA prevalence following the two rounds of MDA with IDA was significant in both Jomvu (52.45%, Z = -2.46, P < 0.02) and Lamu (52.71%, Z = -1.97, P < 0.05). Heterogeneity, however, was observed in the CFA prevalence reduction between random and purposive clusters, as well as between adult and child populations. The results of the impact assessment survey offered strong evidence that it was safe to stop the IDA-MDA in the two EUs because transmission appears to have been interrupted. It is also important to implement a post-treatment surveillance system which would enable efficient detection of any recrudescence of LF transmission at a sub-evaluation unit level. Our findings show that IDA-MDA may be considered for acceleration of LF elimination in other settings where onchocerciasis is not co-endemic., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Njenga et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames., Methods: Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting., Results: For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult., Conclusions: The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest . R. A. reports funding for their institution Imperial College from Leiden Labs, Gates Foundation, and CIFF, leadership roles with Flora and Fauna International, Chairman Oriole Global Health Ltd, and Trusted Banga Trust, and stock with GSK, AstraZeneca, Pfizer. L. E. C. reports funding paid to their institution from March to July 2023 from APW on strongyloidiasis control from WHO Geneva and subcontract on VL modeling for LSTM. K. G. reports that their salary is paid by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation “Filling the Gaps Grant” and USAID “Coalition for Operational Research on NTDs.” J. D. K. reports receiving grants from Bayer AG, Carter Center, Cytiva, EISAI Co Ltd, EMS Brazil, Fred Hollows Foundation, Fundacion Anesvad, Fundacion Mundo Sano, Gilead Sciences Inc, Glaxo Smith Kline, Johnson and Johnson Family of Companies, Contribution Fund, Inc, Merck & Co Inc, Merck KGAA, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Novartis, Sanofi Aventis, The Task Force for Global Health, which receives an operating budget and research funds from Pfizerr Inc, the manufacturers of Zithromax (azithromycin) and Wellcome Trust. K. K. reports receiving support for attending meetings and/or travel from the NTD Modelling Consortium: Informing program decision-making (Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation). A. K. reports receiving consulting fees from the Coalition for Operational Research for NTDs and is a member of the Mectizan Expert Committee and received support for travel to the biannual meeting. P. D. reports support for travel from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. M. G. B. reports grant jointly funded by the UK MRC and the UK Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) under the MRC/FCDO Concordat atreement, also part of the EDCPT2 program supported by the European Union. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Purpose: Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys., Methods: Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported., Results: Between 29 th February 2016 and 24 th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma., Conclusion: This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.

Current WHO guidelines set prevalence thresholds below which a neglected tropical disease can be considered to have been eliminated as a public health problem, and specify how surveys to assess whether elimination has been achieved should be designed and analysed, based on classical survey sampling methods. In this paper, we describe an alternative approach based on geospatial statistical modelling. We first show the gains in efficiency that can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in the underlying prevalence. We then suggest that the current guidelines' implicit use of a significance testing argument is not appropriate; instead, we argue for a predictive inferential framework, leading to design criteria based on controlling the rates at which areas whose true prevalence lies above and below the elimination threshold are incorrectly classified. We describe how this approach naturally accommodates context-specific information in the form of georeferenced covariates that have been shown to be predictive of disease prevalence. Finally, we give a progress report of an ongoing collaboration with the Guyana Ministry of Health Neglected Tropical Disease programme on the design of an IDA (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) Impact Survey of lymphatic filariasis to be conducted in Guyana in early 2023. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) largely impact marginalised communities living in tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration is the leading intervention method for five NTDs; however, it is known that there is lack of access to treatment for some populations and demographic groups. It is also likely that those individuals without access to treatment are excluded from surveillance. It is important to consider the impacts of this on the overall success, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of intervention programmes. We use a detailed individual-based model of the infection dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to investigate the impact of excluded, untreated, and therefore unobserved groups on the true versus observed infection dynamics and subsequent intervention success. We simulate surveillance in four groups-the whole population eligible to receive treatment, the whole eligible population with access to treatment, the TAS focus of six- and seven-year-olds, and finally in >20-year-olds. We show that the surveillance group under observation has a significant impact on perceived dynamics. Exclusion to treatment and surveillance negatively impacts the probability of reaching public health goals, though in populations that do reach these goals there are no signals to indicate excluded groups. Increasingly restricted surveillance groups over-estimate the efficacy of MDA. The presence of non-treated groups cannot be inferred when surveillance is only occurring in the group receiving treatment., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Clark et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Introduction: Delivering preventive chemotherapy through mass drug administration (MDA) is a central approach in controlling or eliminating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Treatment coverage, a primary indicator of MDA performance, can be measured through routinely reported programmatic data or population-based coverage evaluation surveys. Reported coverage is often the easiest and least expensive way to estimate coverage; however, it is prone to inaccuracies due to errors in data compilation and imprecise denominators, and in some cases measures treatments offered as opposed to treatments swallowed., Objective: Analyses presented here aimed to understand (1) how often coverage calculated using routinely reported data and survey data would lead programme managers to make the same programmatic decisions; (2) the magnitude and direction of the difference between these two estimates, and (3) whether there is meaningful variation by region, age group or country., Methods: We analysed and compared reported and surveyed treatment coverage data from 214 MDAs implemented between 2008 and 2017 in 15 countries in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean. Routinely reported treatment coverage was compiled using data reported by national NTD programmes to donors, either directly or via NTD implementing partners, following the implementation of a district-level MDA campaign; coverage was calculated by dividing the number of individuals treated by a population value, which is typically based on national census projections and occasionally community registers. Surveyed treatment coverage came from post-MDA community-based coverage evaluation surveys, which were conducted as per standardised WHO recommended methodology., Results: Coverage estimates using routine reporting and surveys gave the same result in terms of whether the minimum coverage threshold was reached in 72% of the MDAs surveyed in the Africa region and in 52% in the Asia region. The reported coverage value was within ±10 percentage points of the surveyed coverage value in 58/124 of the surveyed MDAs in the Africa region and 19/77 in the Asia region. Concordance between routinely reported and surveyed coverage estimates was 64% for the total population and 72% for school-age children. The study data showed variation across countries in the number of surveys conducted as well as the frequency with which there was concordance between the two coverage estimates., Conclusions: Programme managers must grapple with making decisions based on imperfect information, balancing needs for accuracy with cost and available capacity. The study shows that for many of the MDAs surveyed, based on the concordance with respect to reaching the minimum coverage thresholds, the routinely reported data were accurate enough to make programmatic decisions. Where coverage surveys do show a need to improve accuracy of routinely reported results, NTD programme managers should use various tools and approaches to strengthen data quality in order to use data for decision-making to achieve NTD control and elimination goals., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© World Health Organization 2023. Licensee BMJ.)

Molecular xenomonitoring (MX), the detection of filarial DNA in mosquitoes using molecular methods (PCR), is a potentially useful surveillance strategy for lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination programs. Delay in filarial antigen (Ag) clearance post-treatment is a limitation of using human surveys to provide an early indicator of the impact of mass drug administration (MDA), and MX may be more useful in this setting. We compared prevalence of infected mosquitoes pre- and post-MDA (2018 and 2019) in 35 primary sampling units (PSUs) in Samoa, and investigated associations between the presence of PCR-positive mosquitoes and Ag-positive humans. We observed a statistically significant decline in estimated mosquito infection prevalence post-MDA at the national level (from 0.9% to 0.3%, OR 0.4) but no change in human Ag prevalence during this time. Ag prevalence in 2019 was higher in randomly selected PSUs where PCR-positive pools were detected (1.4% in ages 5-9; 4.8% in ages ≥10), compared to those where PCR-positive pools were not detected (0.2% in ages 5-9; 3.2% in ages ≥10). Our study provides promising evidence for MX as a complement to human surveys in post-MDA surveillance.

Background: Under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), American Samoa conducted 7 rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) between 2000 and 2006. The territory passed transmission assessment surveys (TASs) in 2011 (TAS-1) and 2015 (TAS-2). In 2016, the territory failed TAS-3, indicating resurgence. This study aims to determine if antibodies (Abs) may have provided a timelier indication of LF resurgence in American Samoa., Methods: We examined school-level antigen (Ag) and Ab status (presence/absence of Ag- and Ab-positive children) and prevalence of single and combined Ab responses to Wb123, Bm14, and Bm33 Ags at each TAS. Pearson chi-square test and logistic regression were used to examine associations between school-level Ab prevalence in TAS-1 and TAS-2 and school-level Ag status in TAS-3., Results: Schools with higher prevalence of Wb123 Ab in TAS-2 had higher odds of being Ag-positive in TAS-3 (odds ratio [OR] 24.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-512.7). Schools that were Ab-positive for WB123 plus Bm14, Bm33, or both Bm14 and Bm33 in TAS-2 had higher odds of being Ag-positive in TAS-3 (OR 16.0-24.5)., Conclusion: Abs could provide earlier signals of resurgence and enable a timelier response. The promising role of Abs in surveillance after MDA and decision making should be further investigated in other settings., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for global elimination as a public health problem since 1997. The primary strategy to interrupt transmission is annual mass drug administration (MDA) for ≥5 years. The transmission assessment survey (TAS) was developed as a decision-making tool to measure LF antigenemia in children to determine when MDA in a region can be stopped. The objective of this study was to investigate potential sampling strategies for follow-up of LF-positive children identified in TAS to detect evidence of ongoing transmission., Methodology/principle Findings: Nippes Department in Haiti passed TAS 1 with 2 positive cases and stopped MDA in 2015; however, 8 positive children were found during TAS 2 in 2017, which prompted a more thorough assessment of ongoing transmission. Purposive sampling was used to select the closest 50 households to each index case household, and systematic random sampling was used to select 20 households from each index case census enumeration area. All consenting household members aged ≥2 years were surveyed and tested for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) using the rapid filarial test strip and for Wb123-specific antibodies using the Filaria Detect IgG4 ELISA. Among 1,927 participants, 1.5% were CFA-positive and 4.5% were seropositive. CFA-positive individuals were identified for 6 of 8 index cases. Positivity ranged from 0.4-2.4%, with highest positivity in the urban commune Miragoane. Purposive sampling found the highest number of CFA-positives (17 vs. 9), and random sampling found a higher percent positive (2.4% vs. 1.4%)., Conclusions/significance: Overall, both purposive and random sampling methods were reasonable and achievable methods of TAS follow-up in resource-limited settings. Both methods identified additional CFA-positives in close geographic proximity to LF-positive children found by TAS, and both identified strong signs of ongoing transmission in the large urban commune of Miragoane. These findings will help inform standardized guidelines for post-TAS surveillance., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The elimination of onchocerciasis through community-based Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of ivermectin (Mectizan) is hampered by co-endemicity of Loa loa, as individuals who are highly co-infected with Loa loa parasites can suffer serious and occasionally fatal neurological reactions from the drug. The test-and-not-treat strategy of testing all individuals participating in MDA has some operational constraints including the cost and limited availability of LoaScope diagnostic tools. As a result, a Loa loa Antibody (Ab) Rapid Test was developed to offer a complementary way of determining the prevalence of loiasis. We develop a joint geostatistical modelling framework for the analysis of Ab and Loascope data to delineate whether an area is safe for MDA. Our results support the use of a two-stage strategy, in which Ab testing is used to identify areas that, with acceptably high probability, are safe or unsafe for MDA, followed by Loascope testing in areas whose safety status is uncertain. This work therefore contributes to the global effort towards the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem by potentially reducing the time and cost required to establish whether an area is safe for MDA., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: M.B. is a full-time employee of Drugs & Diagnostics for Tropical Diseases, the company that manufactures the Loa Antibody Rapid Test.

Background: The Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) is a decision-making tool to determine when transmission of lymphatic filariasis is presumed to have reached a level low enough that it cannot be sustained even in the absence of mass drug administration. The survey is applied over geographic areas, called evaluation units (EUs); existing World Health Organization guidelines limit EU size to a population of no more than 2 million people., Methodology/principal Findings: In 2015, TASs were conducted in 14 small EUs in Haiti. Simulations, using the observed TAS results, were performed to understand the potential programmatic impact had Haiti chosen to form larger EUs. Nine "combination-EUs" were formed by grouping adjacent EUs, and bootstrapping was used to simulate the expected TAS results. When the combination-EUs were comprised of at least one "passing" and one "failing" EU, the majority of these combination-EU would pass the TAS 79% - 100% of the time. Even in the case when both component EUs had failed, the combination-EU was expected to "pass" 11% of the time. Simulations of mini-TAS, a strategy with smaller power and hence smaller sample size than TAS, resulted in more conservative "passing" and "failing" when implemented in original EUs., Conclusions/significance: Our results demonstrate the high potential for misclassification when the average prevalence of lymphatic filariasis in the combined areas differs with regards to the TAS threshold. Of particular concern is the risk of "passing" larger EUs that include focal areas where prevalence is high enough to be potentially self-sustaining. Our results reaffirm the approach that Haiti took in forming smaller EUs. Where baseline or monitoring data show a high or heterogeneous prevalence, programs should leverage alternative strategies like mini-TAS in smaller EUs, or consider gathering additional data through spot check sites to advise EU formation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The lack of a WHO-recommended strategy for onchocerciasis treatment with ivermectin in hypo-endemic areas co-endemic with loiasis is an impediment to global onchocerciasis elimination. New loiasis diagnostics (LoaScope; Loa antibody rapid test) and risk prediction tools may enable safe mass treatment decisions in co-endemic areas. In 2017-2018, an integrated mapping strategy for onchocerciasis, lymphatic filariasis (LF), and loiasis, aimed at enabling safe ivermectin treatment decisions, was piloted in Gabon. Three ivermectin-naïve departments suspected to be hypo-endemic were selected and up to 100 adults per village across 30 villages in each of the three departments underwent testing for indicators of onchocerciasis, LF, and loiasis. An additional 67 communities in five adjoining departments were tested for loiasis to extend the prevalence and intensity predictions and possibly expand the boundaries of areas deemed safe for ivermectin treatment. Integrated testing in the three departments revealed within-department heterogeneity for all the three diseases, highlighting the value of a mapping approach that relies on cluster-based sampling rather than sentinel sites. These results suggest that safe mass treatment of onchocerciasis may be possible at the subdepartment level, even in departments where loiasis is present. Beyond valuable epidemiologic data, the study generated insight into the performance of various diagnostics and the feasibility of an integrated mapping approach utilizing new diagnostic and modeling tools. Further research should explore how programs can combine these diagnostic and risk prediction tools into a feasible programmatic strategy to enable safe treatment decisions where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic.

As lymphatic filariasis (LF) programs move closer to established targets for validation elimination of LF as a public health problem, diagnostic tools capable of supporting the needs of the programs are critical for success. Known limitations of existing diagnostic tools make it challenging to have confidence that program endpoints have been achieved. In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) established a Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group (DTAG) for Neglected Tropical Diseases tasked with prioritizing diagnostic needs including defining use-cases and target product profiles (TPPs) for needed tools. Subsequently, disease-specific DTAG subgroups, including one focused on LF, were established to develop TPPs and use-case analyses to be used by product developers. Here, we describe the development of two priority TPPs for LF diagnostics needed for making decisions for stopping mass drug administration (MDA) of a triple drug regimen and surveillance. Utilizing the WHO core TPP development process as the framework, the LF subgroup convened to discuss and determine attributes required for each use case. TPPs considered the following parameters: product use, design, performance, product configuration and cost, and access and equity. Version 1.0 TPPs for two use cases were published by WHO on 12 March 2021 within the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development. A common TPP characteristic that emerged in both use cases was the need to identify new biomarkers that would allow for greater precision in program delivery. As LF diagnostic tests are rarely used for individual clinical diagnosis, it became apparent that reliance on population-based surveys for decision making requires consideration of test performance in the context of such surveys. In low prevalence settings, the number of false positive test results may lead to unnecessary continuation or resumption of MDA, thus wasting valuable resources and time. Therefore, highly specific diagnostic tools are paramount when used to measure low thresholds. The TPP process brought to the forefront the importance of linking use case, program platform and diagnostic performance characteristics when defining required criteria for diagnostic tools., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Coverage surveys for mass drug administration (MDA) rely on respondent recall and often permit proxy responses, whereby another household member is allowed to respond on behalf of an absent individual. In this secondary analysis of coverage surveys in Malawi, Burkina Faso, and Uganda, we explore the characteristics of individuals who require proxy responses and quantify the association between proxy responses and reported drug coverage. The adjusted logistic regression model found that men 11-39 years and women 11-18 years who were eligible for MDA had greater odds of requiring a proxy response compared with ineligible men and women in the same age groups. A hierarchical multivariable analysis found that proxy responses had 1.70 times the odds of reporting ingestion of MDA drugs compared with first-person responses, controlling for age and sex (95% CI: 1.17, 2.46). This finding is surprising, given that individuals absent during a coverage survey may also have been absent during the MDA, and suggests that proxy responses may be leading to an inflation of survey estimates of drug coverage. This study highlights the possibility for recall bias in proxy responses to MDA coverage; however, excluding absent individuals from coverage surveys would introduce a new bias. Further research is necessary to determine the best method for obtaining information on drug coverage when individuals are absent.

Competing Interests: The author has declared that no competing interests exist.

Under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), American Samoa conducted mass drug administration (MDA) from 2000-2006. Despite passing Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) in 2011/2012 and 2015, American Samoa failed TAS-3 in 2016, with antigen (Ag) prevalence of 0.7% (95%CI 0.3-1.8%) in 6-7 year-olds. A 2016 community survey (Ag prevalence 6.2% (95%CI 4.4-8.5%) in age ≥8 years) confirmed resurgence. Using data from the 2016 survey, this study aims to i) investigate antibody prevalence in TAS-3 and the community survey, ii) identify risk factors associated with being seropositive for Ag and anti-filarial antibodies, and iii) compare the efficiency of different sampling strategies for identifying seropositive persons in the post-MDA setting. Antibody prevalence in TAS-3 (n = 1143) were 1.6% for Bm14 (95%CI 0.9-2.9%), 7.9% for Wb123 (95%CI 6.4-9.6%), and 20.2% for Bm33 (95%CI 16.7-24.3%); and in the community survey (n = 2507), 13.9% for Bm14 (95%CI 11.2-17.2%), 27.9% for Wb123 (95%CI 24.6-31.4%), and 47.3% for Bm33 (95%CI 42.1-52.6%). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for being seropositive for Ag and antibodies. Higher Ag prevalence was found in males (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.01), age ≥18 years (aOR 2.18), residents of Fagali'i (aOR 15.81), and outdoor workers (aOR 2.61). Ag prevalence was 20.7% (95%CI 9.7-53.5%) in households of Ag-positive children identified in TAS-3. We used NNTestav (average number needed to test to identify one positive) to compare the efficiency of the following strategies for identifying persons who were seropositive for Ag and each antibody: i) TAS of 6-7 year-old children, ii) population representative surveys of older age groups, and iii) targeted surveillance of subpopulations at higher risk of being seropositive (older ages, householders of Ag-positive TAS children, and known hotspots). For Ag, NNTestav ranged from 142.5 for TAS, to <5 for households of index children. NNTestav was lower in older ages, and highest for Ag, followed by Bm14, Wb123 and Bm33 antibodies. We propose a multi-stage surveillance strategy, starting with population-representative sampling (e.g. TAS or population representative survey of older ages), followed by strategies that target subpopulations and/or locations with low NNTestav. This approach could potentially improve the efficiency of identifying remaining infected persons and residual hotspots. Surveillance programs should also explore the utility of antibodies as indicators of transmission., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Samoa conducted eight nationwide rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) between 1999 and 2011, and two targeted rounds in 2015 and 2017 in North West Upolu (NWU), one of three evaluation units (EUs). Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) were conducted in 2013 (failed in NWU) and 2017 (all three EUs failed). In 2018, Samoa was the first in the world to distribute nationwide triple-drug MDA using ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole. Surveillance and Monitoring to Eliminate LF and Scabies from Samoa (SaMELFS Samoa) is an operational research program designed to evaluate the effectiveness of triple-drug MDA on LF transmission and scabies prevalence in Samoa, and to compare the usefulness of different indicators of LF transmission. This paper reports results from the 2018 baseline survey and aims to i) investigate antigen (Ag) prevalence and spatial epidemiology, including geographic clustering; ii) compare Ag prevalence between two different age groups (5-9 years versus ≥10 years) as indicators of areas of ongoing transmission; and iii) assess the prevalence of limb lymphedema in those aged ≥15 years., Methods: A community-based cluster survey was conducted in 30 randomly selected and five purposively selected clusters (primary sampling units, PSUs), each comprising one or two villages. Participants were recruited through household surveys (age ≥5 years) and convenience surveys (age 5-9 years). Alere Filariasis Test Strips (FTS) were used to detect Ag, and prevalence was adjusted for survey design and standardized for age and gender. Adjusted Ag prevalence was estimated for each age group (5-9, ≥10, and all ages ≥5 years) for random and purposive PSUs, and by region. Intraclass correlation (ICC) was used to quantify clustering at regions, PSUs, and households., Results: A total of 3940 persons were included (1942 children aged 5-9 years, 1998 persons aged ≥10 years). Adjusted Ag prevalence in all ages ≥5 years in randomly and purposively selected PSUs were 4.0% (95% CI 2.8-5.6%) and 10.0% (95% CI 7.4-13.4%), respectively. In random PSUs, Ag prevalence was lower in those aged 5-9 years (1.3%, 95% CI 0.8-2.1%) than ≥10 years (4.7%, 95% CI 3.1-7.0%), and poorly correlated at the PSU level (R-square = 0.1459). Adjusted Ag prevalence in PSUs ranged from 0% to 10.3% (95% CI 5.9-17.6%) in randomly selected and 3.8% (95% CI 1.3-10.8%) to 20.0% (95% CI 15.3-25.8%) in purposively selected PSUs. ICC for Ag-positive individuals was higher at households (0.46) compared to PSUs (0.18) and regions (0.01)., Conclusions: Our study confirmed ongoing transmission of LF in Samoa, in accordance with the 2017 TAS results. Ag prevalence varied significantly between PSUs, and there was poor correlation between prevalence in 5-9 year-olds and older ages, who had threefold higher prevalence. Sampling older age groups would provide more accurate estimates of overall prevalence, and be more sensitive for identifying residual hotspots. Higher prevalence in purposively selected PSUs shows local knowledge can help identify at least some hotspots., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has made considerable progress but is experiencing challenges in meeting targets in some countries. Recent World Health Organization guidelines have recommended two rounds of triple-drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine (DEC), and albendazole (IDA), in areas where mass drug administration (MDA) results with two drugs (DEC and albendazole) have been suboptimal, as is the case in Samoa. In August 2018, Samoa was the first country in the world to implement countrywide triple-drug MDA. This paper aims to describe Samoa's experience with program coverage and adverse events (AEs) in the first round of triple-drug MDA. We conducted a large cross-sectional community survey to assess MDA awareness, reach, compliance, coverage and AEs in September/October 2018, 7-11 weeks after the first round of triple-drug MDA. In our sample of 4420 people aged ≥2 years (2.2% of the population), age-adjusted estimates indicated that 89.0% of the eligible population were offered MDA, 83.9% of the eligible population took MDA (program coverage), and 80.2% of the total population took MDA (epidemiological coverage). Overall, 83.8% (2986/3563) reported that they did not feel unwell at all after taking MDA. Mild AEs (feeling unwell but able to do normal everyday things) were reported by 13.3% (476/3563) and moderate or severe AEs (feeling unwell and being unable to do normal everyday activities such as going to work or school) by 2.9% (103/3563) of participants. This study following the 2018 triple-drug MDA in Samoa demonstrated a high reported program awareness and reach of 90.8% and 89.0%, respectively. Age-adjusted program coverage of 83.9% of the total population showed that MDA was well accepted and well tolerated by the community., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The global elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a major focus of the World Health Organization. One key challenge is locating residual infections that can perpetuate the transmission cycle. We show how a targeted sampling strategy using predictions from a geospatial model, combining random forests and geostatistics, can improve the sampling efficiency for identifying locations with high infection prevalence. Predictions were made based on the household locations of infected persons identified from previous surveys, and environmental variables relevant to mosquito density. Results show that targeting sampling using model predictions would have allowed 52% of infections to be identified by sampling just 17.7% of households. The odds ratio for identifying an infected individual in a household at a predicted high risk compared to a predicted low risk location was 10.2 (95% CI 4.2-22.8). This study provides evidence that a 'one size fits all' approach is unlikely to yield optimal results when making programmatic decisions based on model predictions. Instead, model assumptions and definitions should be tailored to each situation based on the objective of the surveillance program. When predictions are used in the context of the program objectives, they can result in a dramatic improvement in the efficiency of locating infected individuals.

Coverage evaluation surveys (CESs) are an important complement to routinely reported drug coverage estimates following mass drug administration for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Although the WHO recommends the routine use of CESs, they are rarely implemented. Reasons for this low uptake are multifaceted; one is uncertainty on the best sampling method. We conducted a multicountry study to compare the statistical characteristics, cost, time, and complexity of three commonly used CES sampling methods: the Expanded Program on Immunization's (EPI's) 30 × 7 cluster survey, a stratified design with systematic sampling within strata to enable lot quality assurance sampling (S-LQAS) decision rules, and probability sampling with segmentation (PSS). The three CES methods were used in Burkina Faso, Honduras, Malawi, and Uganda, and results were compared across the country sites. All three CES methods were found to be feasible. The S-LQAS approach took the least amount of time to complete and, consequently, was the least expensive; however, all three methods cost less than $5,000 per district. The PSS design resulted in an unbiased, equal-probability sample of the target populations. By contrast, the EPI approach had inherent bias related to the selection of households. Because of modifications needed to maintain feasibility, the S-LQAS method also resulted in a non-probability sample with less precision than the other two methods. Given the comparable cost and time of the three sampling methods and the statistical advantages of the PSS method, the PSS method was deemed to be the best for CESs in NTD programs.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is endemic in Ghana, and the country has implemented the GPELF strategy since 2000 with significant progress made in the control of the disease. However, after several years of mass drug administration (MDA) implementation, there is persistent transmission in 17 of the 98 endemic districts in the country. Current approaches to surveillance are clearly unable to target untreated individuals and new strategies are required to address the endgame challenges to enhance LF elimination as a public health problem in endemic countries. Community registers are used during MDAs to enumerate community members, their age, gender, house numbers, and records of their participation in MDAs. These MDA registers represent an untapped opportunity to identify and characterize non-compliance and inform appropriate programmatic actions. In this study, we analyzed the data presented in the registers to assess the coverage and individuals' compliance in MDA., Methods: The information in the MDA registers were assessed to verify the reported coverages obtained from the district. The community registers were obtained from the district health offices and the data from each individual record was entered into a database. A simple questionnaire was used to cross-check the participation of study participants in the 2017 MDA. The questionnaire solicited data on: participation in the 2017 MDA, reasons for not taking part in the MDA, adverse events experienced, what was done for the adverse events, and willingness to participate in subsequent MDAs., Results: We found that 40.1% of the population in the registers missed at least one MDA in 3 years (2016-2018) and the majority of them were between 10-30 years of age. The results of the questionnaire assessment indicated that 13.8% of the respondents did not receive treatment in 2017 for various reasons, the most prominent among them being "absence/travel" (37.1%). Data in the registers were used to verify the treatment coverage for the years 2017 and 2018, and reviewed against the reported coverage obtained from the district. Significant differences between the reported and verified coverages were only observed in four communities. However, the assessment also revealed that the reported coverage was only accurate in 33.3% of cases., Conclusions: The MDA registers allow for the identification of eligible individuals who were not reached during any MDA round. Thus, the MDA registers could be utilized at the community and programme levels to identify missing and untreated individuals, appropriately address their non-compliance to MDA, and thereby improve MDA coverage in each implementation unit and monitor the progress towards elimination of LF. The challenges observed through the review of the registers also offer opportunities to improve the training given to the community drug distributors., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Despite evidence suggesting that air pollution-related health effects differ by emissions source, epidemiologic studies on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) infrequently differentiate between particles from different sources. Those that do rarely account for the uncertainty of source apportionment methods., Methods: For each day in a 12-year period (1998-2010) in Atlanta, GA, we estimated daily PM2.5 source contributions from a Bayesian ensemble model that combined four source apportionment methods including chemical transport and receptor-based models. We fit Poisson generalized linear models to estimate associations between source-specific PM2.5 concentrations and cardiorespiratory emergency department visits (n = 1,598,117). We propagated uncertainty in the source contribution estimates through analyses using multiple imputation., Results: Respiratory emergency department visits were positively associated with biomass burning and secondary organic carbon. For a 1 µg/m increase in PM2.5 from biomass burning during the past 3 days, the rate of visits for all respiratory outcomes increased by 0.4% (95% CI 0.0%, 0.7%). There was less evidence for associations between PM2.5 sources and cardiovascular outcomes, with the exception of ischemic stroke, which was positively associated with most PM2.5 sources. Accounting for the uncertainty of source apportionment estimates resulted, on average, in an 18% increase in the standard error for rate ratio estimates for all respiratory and cardiovascular emergency department visits, but inflation varied across specific sources and outcomes, ranging from 2% to 39%., Conclusions: This study provides evidence of associations between PM2.5 sources and some cardiorespiratory outcomes and quantifies the impact of accounting for variability in source apportionment approaches.

Introduction: Under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), American Samoa conducted seven rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) from 2000-2006. The World Health Organization recommends systematic post-MDA surveillance using Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) for epidemiological assessment of recent LF transmission. We compared the effectiveness of two survey designs for post-MDA surveillance: a school-based survey of children aged 6-7 years, and a community-based survey targeting people aged ≥8 years., Methods: In 2016, we conducted a systematic school-based TAS in all elementary schools (N = 29) and a cluster survey in 28 villages on the two main islands of American Samoa. We collected information on demographics and risk factors for infection using electronic questionnaires, and recorded geo-locations of schools and households. Blood samples were collected to test for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) using the Alere Filariasis Test Strip. For those who tested positive, we prepared slides for microscopic examination of microfilaria and provided treatment. Descriptive statistics were performed for questionnaire variables. Data were weighted and adjusted to account for sampling design and sex for both surveys, and for age in the community survey., Results: The school-based TAS (n = 1143) identified nine antigen-positive children and found an overall adjusted CFA prevalence of 0.7% (95% CI: 0.3-1.8). Of the nine positive children, we identified one microfilariaemic 7-year-old child. The community-based survey (n = 2507, 711 households) identified 102 antigen-positive people, and estimated an overall adjusted CFA prevalence of 6.2% (95% CI: 4.5-8.6). Adjusted village-level prevalence ranged from 0-47.1%. CFA prevalence increased with age and was higher in males. Of 86 antigen-positive community members from whom slides were prepared, 22 (25.6%) were microfilaraemic. School-based TAS had limited sensitivity (range 0-23.8%) and negative predictive value (range 25-83.3%) but had high specificity (range 83.3-100%) and positive predictive value (range 0-100%) for identifying villages with ongoing transmission., Conclusions: American Samoa failed the school-based TAS in 2016, and the community-based survey identified higher than expected numbers of antigen-positive people. School-based TAS was logistically simpler and enabled sampling of a larger proportion of the target population, but the results did not provide a good indication of the overall CFA prevalence in older age groups and was not sensitive at identifying foci of ongoing transmission. The community-based survey, although operationally more challenging, identified antigen-positive individuals of all ages, and foci of high antigen prevalence. Both surveys confirmed recrudescence of LF transmission., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Current WHO recommendations for lymphatic filariasis (LF) surveillance advise programs to implement activities to monitor for new foci of transmission after stopping mass drug administration (MDA). A current need in the global effort to eliminate LF is to standardize diagnostic tools and surveillance activities beyond the recommended transmission assessment survey (TAS)., Methodology: TAS was first conducted in American Samoa in 2011 (TAS 1) and a repeat TAS was carried out in 2015 (TAS 2). Circulating filarial antigen (CFA) and serologic results from both surveys were analyzed to determine whether interruption of LF transmission has been achieved in American Samoa., Principal Findings: A total of 1,134 and 864 children (5-10 years old) were enrolled in TAS 1 and TAS 2, respectively. Two CFA-positive children were identified in TAS 1, and one CFA-positive child was identified in TAS 2. Results of both surveys were below the threshold for which MDA was warranted. Additionally, 1,112 and 836 dried blood spots from TAS 1 and TAS 2, respectively were tested for antibodies to Wb123, Bm14 and Bm33 by luciferase immunoprecipitation system (LIPS) assay and multiplex bead assay. In 2011, overall prevalence of responses to Wb123, Bm14, and Bm33 was 1.0%, 6.8% and 12.0%, respectively. In 2015, overall prevalence of positive Bm14 and Bm33 responses declined significantly to 3.0% (p<0.001) and 7.8% (p = 0.013), respectively., Conclusions/significance: Although passing TAS 1 and TAS 2 and an overall decline in the prevalence of antibodies to Bm14 and Bm33 between these surveys suggests decreased exposure and infection among young children, there were persistent responses in some schools. Clustering and persistence of positive antibody responses in schools may be an indication of ongoing transmission. There is a need to better understand the limitations of current antibody tests, but our results suggest that serologic tools can have a role in guiding programmatic decision making.

A current need in the global effort to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) is the availability of reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to guide programmatic decisions, especially decisions made in the final stages of the program. This study conducted in The Gambia aimed to assess antifilarial antibody levels among populations living in historically highly LF-endemic areas and to evaluate the use of serologic tools to confirm the interruption of LF transmission. A total of 2,612 dried blood spots (DBSs) collected from individuals aged 1 year and above from 15 villages were tested for antibodies to Wb123 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A subset of DBS ( N = 599) was also tested for antibodies to Bm14 by ELISA. Overall, the prevalence of Wb123 was low (1.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.1%). In 7 of 15 villages (46.7%), there were no Wb123-positive individuals identified. Individuals with positive responses to Wb123 ranged in age from 3 to 100 years. Overall, Bm14 prevalence was also low (1.5%, 95% CI 0.7-2.8%). Bm14 positivity was significantly associated with older age ( P < 0.001). The low levels of antibody responses to Wb123 observed in our study strongly suggest that sustainable LF transmission has likely ceased in The Gambia. In addition, our results support the conclusion that serologic tools can have a role in guiding programmatic decision making and supporting surveillance.

Background: Characterizing multipollutant health effects is challenging. We use classification and regression trees to identify multipollutant joint effects associated with pediatric asthma exacerbations and compare these results with those from a multipollutant regression model with continuous joint effects., Methods: We investigate the joint effects of ozone, NO2 and PM2.5 on emergency department visits for pediatric asthma in Atlanta (1999-2009), Dallas (2006-2009) and St. Louis (2001-2007). Daily concentrations of each pollutant were categorized into four levels, resulting in 64 different combinations or "Day-Types" that can occur. Days when all pollutants were in the lowest level were withheld as the reference group. Separate regression trees were grown for each city, with partitioning based on Day-Type in a model with control for confounding. Day-Types that appeared together in the same terminal node in all three trees were considered to be mixtures of potential interest and were included as indicator variables in a three-city Poisson generalized linear model with confounding control and rate ratios calculated relative to the reference group. For comparison, we estimated analogous joint effects from a multipollutant Poisson model that included terms for each pollutant, with concentrations modeled continuously., Results and Discussion: No single mixture emerged as the most harmful. Instead, the rate ratios for the mixtures suggest that all three pollutants drive the health association, and that the rate plateaus in the mixtures with the highest concentrations. In contrast, the results from the comparison model are dominated by an association with ozone and suggest that the rate increases with concentration., Conclusion: The use of classification and regression trees to identify joint effects may lead to different conclusions than multipollutant models with continuous joint effects and may serve as a complementary approach for understanding health effects of multipollutant mixtures.

Epidemiologic studies utilizing source apportionment (SA) of fine particulate matter have shown that particles from certain sources might be more detrimental to health than others; however, it is difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with a given SA approach. In the present study, we examined associations between source contributions of fine particulate matter and emergency department visits for pediatric asthma in Atlanta, Georgia (2002-2010) using a novel ensemble-based SA technique. Six daily source contributions from 4 SA approaches were combined into an ensemble source contribution. To better account for exposure uncertainty, 10 source profiles were sampled from their posterior distributions, resulting in 10 time series with daily SA concentrations. For each of these time series, Poisson generalized linear models with varying lag structures were used to estimate the health associations for the 6 sources. The rate ratios for the source-specific health associations from the 10 imputed source contribution time series were combined, resulting in health associations with inflated confidence intervals to better account for exposure uncertainty. Adverse associations with pediatric asthma were observed for 8-day exposure to particles generated from diesel-fueled vehicles (rate ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.10) and gasoline-fueled vehicles (rate ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.17)., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Purpose: To complete the baseline trachoma map worldwide by conducting population-based surveys in an estimated 1238 suspected endemic districts of 34 countries., Methods: A series of national and sub-national projects owned, managed and staffed by ministries of health, conduct house-to-house cluster random sample surveys in evaluation units, which generally correspond to "health district" size: populations of 100,000-250,000 people. In each evaluation unit, we invite all residents aged 1 year and older from h households in each of c clusters to be examined for clinical signs of trachoma, where h is the number of households that can be seen by 1 team in 1 day, and the product h × c is calculated to facilitate recruitment of 1019 children aged 1-9 years. In addition to individual-level demographic and clinical data, household-level water, sanitation and hygiene data are entered into the purpose-built LINKS application on Android smartphones, transmitted to the Cloud, and cleaned, analyzed and ministry-of-health-approved via a secure web-based portal. The main outcome measures are the evaluation unit-level prevalence of follicular trachoma in children aged 1-9 years, prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults aged 15 + years, percentage of households using safe methods for disposal of human feces, and percentage of households with proximate access to water for personal hygiene purposes., Results: In the first year of fieldwork, 347 field teams commenced work in 21 projects in 7 countries., Conclusion: With an approach that is innovative in design and scale, we aim to complete baseline mapping of trachoma throughout the world in 2015.

The purpose of this study was to describe the rate of closure observed in venous leg ulcers during treatment with ovine collagen extracellular matrix dressings and compression. Fourteen patients with 23 wounds were retrospectively evaluated with respect to healing rates, time to closure, and weekly facility charge fees.

Background: Because ambient air pollution exposure occurs as mixtures, consideration of joint effects of multiple pollutants may advance our understanding of the health effects of air pollution., Methods: We assessed the joint effect of air pollutants on pediatric asthma emergency department visits in Atlanta during 1998-2004. We selected combinations of pollutants that were representative of oxidant gases and secondary, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants, constructed using combinations of criteria pollutants and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) components. Joint effects were assessed using multipollutant Poisson generalized linear models controlling for time trends, meteorology, and daily nonasthma upper respiratory emergency department visit counts. Rate ratios (RRs) were calculated for the combined effect of an interquartile range increment in each pollutant's concentration., Results: Increases in all of the selected pollutant combinations were associated with increases in warm-season pediatric asthma emergency department visits (eg, joint-effect RR = 1.13 [95% confidence interval = 1.06-1.21] for criteria pollutants, including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5). Cold-season joint effects from models without nonlinear effects were generally weaker than warm-season effects. Joint-effect estimates from multipollutant models were often smaller than estimates based on single-pollutant models, due to control for confounding. Compared with models without interactions, joint-effect estimates from models including first-order pollutant interactions were largely similar. There was evidence of nonlinear cold-season effects., Conclusions: Our analyses illustrate how consideration of joint effects can add to our understanding of health effects of multipollutant exposures and also illustrate some of the complexities involved in calculating and interpreting joint effects of multiple pollutants.

Background: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) - a class of parasites that affect billions of people - can be mitigated using mass drug administration, though reinfection following treatment occurs within a few months. Improvements to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) likely provide sustained benefit, but few rigorous studies have evaluated the specific WASH components most influential in reducing infection. There is a need for alternative analytic approaches to help identify, characterize and further refine the WASH components that are most important to STH reinfection. Traditional epidemiological approaches are not well-suited for assessing the complex and highly correlated relationships commonly seen in WASH., Methodology: We introduce two recursive partitioning approaches: classification and regression trees (C&RT) and conditional inference trees (CIT), which can be used to identify complex interactions between WASH indicators and identify sub-populations that may be susceptible to STH reinfection. We illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of these approaches utilizing school- and household-level WASH indicators gathered as part of a school-based randomized control trial in Kenya that measured STH reinfection of pupils 10 months following deworming treatment., Principal Findings: C&RT and CIT analyses resulted in strikingly different decision trees. C&RT may be the preferred approach if interest lies in using WASH indicators to classify individuals or communities as STH infected or uninfected, whereas CIT is most appropriate for identifying WASH indicators that may be causally associated with STH infection. Both tools are well-suited for identifying complex interactions among WASH indicators., Conclusions/significance: C&RT and CIT are two analytic approaches that may offer valuable insight regarding the identification, selection and refinement of WASH indicators and their interactions with regards to STH control programs; however, they represent solutions to two distinct research questions and careful consideration should be made before deciding which approach is most appropriate.

Background: Identifying and characterizing how mixtures of exposures are associated with health endpoints is challenging. We demonstrate how classification and regression trees can be used to generate hypotheses regarding joint effects from exposure mixtures., Methods: We illustrate the approach by investigating the joint effects of CO, NO2, O3, and PM2.5 on emergency department visits for pediatric asthma in Atlanta, Georgia. Pollutant concentrations were categorized as quartiles. Days when all pollutants were in the lowest quartile were held out as the referent group (n = 131) and the remaining 3,879 days were used to estimate the regression tree. Pollutants were parameterized as dichotomous variables representing each ordinal split of the quartiles (e.g. comparing CO quartile 1 vs. CO quartiles 2-4) and considered one at a time in a Poisson case-crossover model with control for confounding. The pollutant-split resulting in the smallest P-value was selected as the first split and the dataset was partitioned accordingly. This process repeated for each subset of the data until the P-values for the remaining splits were not below a given alpha, resulting in the formation of a "terminal node". We used the case-crossover model to estimate the adjusted risk ratio for each terminal node compared to the referent group, as well as the likelihood ratio test for the inclusion of the terminal nodes in the final model., Results: The largest risk ratio corresponded to days when PM2.5 was in the highest quartile and NO2 was in the lowest two quartiles (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.16). A simultaneous Wald test for the inclusion of all terminal nodes in the model was significant, with a chi-square statistic of 34.3 (p = 0.001, with 13 degrees of freedom)., Conclusions: Regression trees can be used to hypothesize about joint effects of exposure mixtures and may be particularly useful in the field of air pollution epidemiology for gaining a better understanding of complex multipollutant exposures.

Background: Mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) programs has delivered more than 2 billion treatments of albendazole, in combination with either ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine, to communities co-endemic for soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH), reducing the prevalence of both diseases. A transmission assessment survey (TAS) is recommended to determine if MDA for LF can be stopped within an evaluation unit (EU) after at least five rounds of annual treatment. The TAS also provides an opportunity to simultaneously assess the impact of these MDAs on STH and to determine the frequency of school-based MDA for STH after community-wide MDA is no longer needed for LF., Methodology/principal Findings: Pilot studies conducted in Benin and Tonga assessed the feasibility of a coordinated approach. Of the schools (clusters) selected for a TAS in each EU, a subset of 5 schools per STH ecological zone was randomly selected, according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, for the coordinated survey. In Benin, 519 children were sampled in 5 schools and 22 (4.2%) had STH infection (A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura, or hookworm) detected using the Kato-Katz method. All infections were classified as light intensity under WHO criteria. In Tonga, 10 schools were chosen for the coordinated TAS and STH survey covering two ecological zones; 32 of 232 (13.8%) children were infected in Tongatapu and 82 of 320 (25.6%) in Vava'u and Ha'apai. All infections were light-intensity with the exception of one with moderate-intensity T. trichiura., Conclusions: Synchronous assessment of STH with TAS is feasible and provides a well-timed evaluation of infection prevalence to guide ongoing treatment decisions at a time when MDA for LF may be stopped. The coordinated field experiences in both countries also suggest potential time and cost savings. Refinement of a coordinated TAS and STH sampling methodology should be pursued, along with further validation of alternative quantitative diagnostic tests for STH that can be used with preserved stool specimens.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is targeted for global elimination through treatment of entire at-risk populations with repeated annual mass drug administration (MDA). Essential for program success is defining and confirming the appropriate endpoint for MDA when transmission is presumed to have reached a level low enough that it cannot be sustained even in the absence of drug intervention. Guidelines advanced by WHO call for a transmission assessment survey (TAS) to determine if MDA can be stopped within an LF evaluation unit (EU) after at least five effective rounds of annual treatment. To test the value and practicality of these guidelines, a multicenter operational research trial was undertaken in 11 countries covering various geographic and epidemiological settings., Methodology: The TAS was conducted twice in each EU with TAS-1 and TAS-2 approximately 24 months apart. Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) formed the basis of the TAS survey design but specific EU characteristics defined the survey site (school or community), eligible population (6-7 year olds or 1(st)-2(nd) graders), survey type (systematic or cluster-sampling), target sample size, and critical cutoff (a statistically powered threshold below which transmission is expected to be no longer sustainable). The primary diagnostic tools were the immunochromatographic (ICT) test for W. bancrofti EUs and the BmR1 test (Brugia Rapid or PanLF) for Brugia spp. EUs., Principal Findings/conclusions: In 10 of 11 EUs, the number of TAS-1 positive cases was below the critical cutoff, indicating that MDA could be stopped. The same results were found in the follow-up TAS-2, therefore, confirming the previous decision outcome. Sample sizes were highly sex and age-representative and closely matched the target value after factoring in estimates of non-participation. The TAS was determined to be a practical and effective evaluation tool for stopping MDA although its validity for longer-term post-MDA surveillance requires further investigation.

In recent years, geostatistical modeling has been used to inform air pollution health studies. In this study, distributions of daily ambient concentrations were modeled over space and time for 12 air pollutants. Simulated pollutant fields were produced for a 6-year time period over the 20-county metropolitan Atlanta area using the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS). These simulations incorporate the temporal and spatial autocorrelation structure of ambient pollutants, as well as season and day-of-week temporal and spatial trends; these fields were considered to be the true ambient pollutant fields for the purposes of the simulations that followed. Simulated monitor data at the locations of actual monitors were then generated that contain error representative of instrument imprecision. From the simulated monitor data, four exposure metrics were calculated: central monitor and unweighted, population-weighted, and area-weighted averages. For each metric, the amount and type of error relative to the simulated pollutant fields are characterized and the impact of error on an epidemiologic time-series analysis is predicted. The amount of error, as indicated by a lack of spatial autocorrelation, is greater for primary pollutants than for secondary pollutants and is only moderately reduced by averaging across monitors; more error will result in less statistical power in the epidemiologic analysis. The type of error, as indicated by the correlations of error with the monitor data and with the true ambient concentration, varies with exposure metric, with error in the central monitor metric more of the classical type (i.e., independent of the monitor data) and error in the spatial average metrics more of the Berkson type (i.e., independent of the true ambient concentration). Error type will affect the bias in the health risk estimate, with bias toward the null and away from the null predicted depending on the exposure metric; population-weighting yielded the least bias.

Background:   Although many children grow up with more than one sibling, we do not yet know if sibling dyads within families show similarities to one another on sibling affection and hostility. In the present study the hypotheses were tested that (a) there will be significant between family variation in change in sibling affection and hostility and (b) this between family variation will be explained by maternal affective climate, operationalized as positive and negative ambient parenting, differential parenting and maternal malaise., Methods:   A general population sample of families with single and multiple sibling dyads were visited twice, 2 years apart. Up to 2 children in a family acted as informants; 253 relationships were rated in 118 families. A cross-classified, multilevel model was fit to separate between-family and within-family variance in sibling relationships while simultaneously controlling for informant and partner influences., Results:   Thirty-seven percent of the variance in change in sibling affection and 32% of the variance in change in sibling hostility was between family variance. The measured maternal affective climate including, maternal malaise and maternal ambient and differential hostility and affection explained between family differences., Conclusions:   Sibling relationship quality clusters in families and is partly explained by maternal affective climate., (© 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.)

Antifilarial antibody testing has been established as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing lymphatic filariasis. However, the development of serological responses to specific filarial antigens and their relationship to acquisition of infection is poorly understood. In order to evaluate whether the development of antigen specific antifilarial antibodies precedes microfilaremia and antigenemia, we compared the antibody responses of serum samples collected between 1990 and 1999 from a cohort of 142 Haitian children followed longitudinally. Antigen status was determined using the Og4C3 ELISA and the presence of microfilaremia was detected using microscopy. Antibody responses to Wb123, a Wuchereria bancrofti L3 antigen, were measured using a Luciferase Immunoprecipitation System (LIPS) assay. Antibody responses to Bm14 and Bm33, Brugia malayi antigens and to a major surface protein (WSP) from Wolbachia were analyzed using a multiplex bead assay. Over follow-up, 80 (56%) of the children became antigen-positive and 30 (21%) developed microfilaremia. Detectable antibody responses to Bm14, Bm33, Wb123, and WSP developed in 95%, 100%, 92%, and 29% of children, respectively. With the exception of WSP, the development of antibody responses generally preceded detection of filarial antigen. Our results show that antifilarial antibody responses can serve as an important epidemiological indicator in a sentinel population of young children and thus, may be valuable as tool for surveillance in the context of lymphatic filariasis elimination programs.

Successful mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns have brought several countries near the point of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) elimination. A diagnostic tool is needed to determine when the prevalence levels have decreased to a point that MDA campaigns can be discontinued without the threat of recrudescence. A six-country study was conducted assessing the performance of seven diagnostic tests, including tests for microfilariae (blood smear, PCR), parasite antigen (ICT, Og4C3) and antifilarial antibody (Bm14, PanLF, Urine SXP). One community survey and one school survey were performed in each country. A total of 8,513 people from the six countries participated in the study, 6,443 through community surveys and 2,070 through school surveys. Specimens from these participants were used to conduct 49,585 diagnostic tests. Each test was seen to have both positive and negative attributes, but overall, the ICT test was found to be 76% sensitive at detecting microfilaremia and 93% specific at identifying individuals negative for both microfilariae and antifilarial antibody; the Og4C3 test was 87% sensitive and 95% specific. We conclude, however, that the ICT should be the primary tool recommended for decision-making about stopping MDAs. As a point-of-care diagnostic, the ICT is relatively inexpensive, requires no laboratory equipment, has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity and can be processed in 10 minutes-qualities consistent with programmatic use. Og4C3 provides a satisfactory laboratory-based diagnostic alternative.