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Aims: Many patients with heart failure (HF) have chronic kidney disease (CKD) and may not tolerate mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. We investigated the efficacy and safety of the novel mineralocorticoid receptor modulator balcinrenone in combination with dapagliflozin in a phase 2b study. Methods and results: From January 2021 to October 2023, we randomized 133 adults with symptomatic HF, ejection fraction <60%, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥30 to ≤60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin‐to‐creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥30 to <3000 mg/g, to receive balcinrenone 15, 50 or 150 mg/day plus dapagliflozin 10 mg/day, or dapagliflozin 10 mg/day plus placebo, for 12 weeks. Enrolment was stopped early because of slow recruitment. Relative reductions in UACR from baseline to week 12 (primary endpoint) were not significantly different between the balcinrenone plus dapagliflozin groups versus dapagliflozin plus placebo. There was no clear balcinrenone dose–response relationship. There were possible dose‐dependent increases in serum potassium levels, reduced eGFR in the highest dose group, and non‐significant trends towards reduced N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide levels. Hyperkalaemia adverse events led to discontinuation in two participants receiving balcinrenone plus dapagliflozin and none in those receiving dapagliflozin plus placebo. Conclusion: While the smaller than planned sample size limits interpretation, we did not see significant reduction in UACR in patients treated with balcinrenone plus dapagliflozin compared with dapagliflozin plus placebo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hierarchical composite endpoints are complex endpoints combining outcomes of different types and different clinical importance into an ordinal outcome that prioritizes the clinically most important (e.g. most severe) event of a patient. Hierarchical composite endpoint can be analysed with the win odds, an adaptation of win ratio to include ties. One of the difficulties in interpreting hierarchical composite endpoint is the lack of proper tools for visualizing the treatment effect captured by hierarchical composite endpoint, given the complex nature of the endpoint which combines events of different types. Methods: Hierarchical composite endpoints usually combine time-to-event outcomes and continuous outcomes into a composite; hence, it is important to capture not only the shift from more severe categories to less severe categories in the active group in comparison to the control group (as in any ordinal endpoint), but also changes occurring within each category. We introduce the novel maraca plot which combines violin plots (with nested box plots) to visualize the density of the distribution of the continuous outcome and Kaplan–Meier plots for time-to-event outcomes into a comprehensive visualization. Conclusion: The novel maraca plot is suggested for visualization of hierarchical composite endpoints consisting of several time-to-event outcomes and a continuous outcome. It has a very simple structure and therefore easily communicates both the overall treatment effect and the effect on individual components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The win odds is a distribution-free method of comparing locations of distributions of two independent random variables. Introduced as a method for analyzing hierarchical composite endpoints, it is well suited to be used in the analysis of ordinal scale endpoints in COVID-19 clinical trials. For a single outcome, we provide power and sample size calculation formulas for the win odds test. We also provide an implementation of the win odds analysis method for a single ordinal outcome in a commonly used statistical software to make the win odds analysis fully reproducible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The win ratio is a general method of comparing locations of distributions of two independent, ordinal random variables, and it can be estimated without distributional assumptions. In this paper we provide a unified theory of win ratio estimation in the presence of stratification and adjustment by a numeric variable. Building step by step on the estimate of the crude win ratio we compare corresponding tests with well known non-parametric tests of group difference (Wilcoxon rank-sum test, Fligner–Policello test, van Elteren test, test based on the regression on ranks, and the rank analysis of covariance test). We show that the win ratio gives an interpretable treatment effect measure with corresponding test to detect treatment effect difference under minimal assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The primary end point in most heart failure (HF) trials is a composite of time to a first worsening HF event or cardiovascular death. Prevention of recurrent events and improvements in symptoms/quality of life are also important for patients but are usually analyzed separately. Win statistics can integrate all these outcomes into a single composite end point, which is analyzed in hierarchical order, reflecting the clinical importance of each component. Methods The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF, n=4744) and Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients with Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER, n=6263) trials enrolled patients with New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV HF, elevated natriuretic peptides, and either an ejection fraction of 40% or less (DAPA-HF) or greater than 40% and left atrial enlargement/left ventricular hypertrophy (DELIVER). We examined the effects of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on a hierarchical composite outcome, including cardiovascular death, total (first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations, total urgent HF visits, and improvement/deterioration in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score (KCCQ-TSS; range from 0 to 100, with a higher score indicating fewer symptoms and physical limitations) at 8 months.Results For this composite outcome, the win ratio was 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 1.36) in the pooled cohort, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.23 to 1.43) in the DAPA-HF trial, and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.18 to 1.36) in the DELIVER trial. Win odds and net benefit in overall patients were 1.19 (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.24) and 8.7% (95% CI, 6.6 to 10.9%), respectively. In the overall pooled cohort, the majority of wins and losses were accounted for by KCCQ-TSS; 52.4% were settled by the KCCQ-TSS tier in the pooled cohort. Conclusions In both the DAPA-HF and DELIVER trials, dapagliflozin led to a significant improvement in composite outcomes that incorporated patient-reported outcomes along with total HF events, as well as cardiovascular deaths. These analyses provided a comprehensive presentation of win statistics and illustrated the utility and flexibility of win statistics in describing the effects of dapagliflozin in two recent clinical trials in patients with HF. (Funded by British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence and others; clinical trial registration numbers, NCT03036124 and NCT03619213.) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the problem of the construction of the backward stochastic differential equation in the Markovian case. We suppose that the forward equation has a discusion coefficient depending on some unknown parameter. We propose an estimator of this parameter constructed by the discrete time observations of the forward equation and then we use this estimator for approximation of the solution of the backward equation. The question of asymptotic optimality of this approximation is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]