Search

Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally, economists model trade using gravity models, which rely on explicit covariates but often struggle to capture these subtler drivers of trade. In this work, we employ optimal transport and a deep neural network to learn a time-dependent cost function from data, without imposing a specific functional form. This approach consistently outperforms traditional gravity models in accuracy while providing natural uncertainty quantification. Applying our framework to global food and agricultural trade, we show that the global South suffered disproportionately from the war in Ukraine's impact on wheat markets. We also analyze the effects of free-trade agreements and trade disputes with China, as well as Brexit's impact on British trade with Europe, uncovering hidden patterns that trade volumes alone cannot reveal.

Since their first discovery in the late 1960s, Gamma-ray bursts have attracted an exponentially growing interest from the international community due to their central role in the most highly debated open questions of the modern research of astronomy, astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. These range from the intimate nuclear composition of high density material within the core of ultra-dense neuron stars, to stellar evolution via the collapse of massive stars, the production and propagation of gravitational waves, as well as the exploration of the early Universe by unveiling first stars and galaxies (assessing also their evolution and cosmic re-ionization). GRBs have stimulated in the past $\sim$50 years the development of cutting-edge technological instruments for observations of high energy celestial sources from space, leading to the launch and successful operations of many different scientific missions (several of them still in data taking mode nowadays). In this review, we provide a brief description of the GRB-dedicated missions from space being designed and developed for the future. The list of these projects, not meant to be exhaustive, shall serve as a reference to interested readers to understand what is likely to come next to lead the further development of GRB research and associated phenomenology., Comment: Accepted for publication on Universe. Invited review, contribution to the Universe Special Issue "Recent Advances in Gamma Ray Astrophysics and Future Perspectives", P. Romano eds. (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/universe/special_issues/7299902Z97)

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such predictions, in order, for instance, to be able to ready hospitals and intensive care units for a worst-case scenario without needlessly wasting resources. In this work, we apply a novel and powerful computational method to the problem of learning probability densities on contagion parameters and providing uncertainty quantification for pandemic projections. Using a neural network, we calibrate an ODE model to data of the spread of COVID-19 in Berlin in 2020, achieving both a significantly more accurate calibration and prediction than Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based sampling schemes. The uncertainties on our predictions provide meaningful confidence intervals e.g. on infection figures and hospitalisation rates, while training and running the neural scheme takes minutes where MCMC takes hours. We show convergence of our method to the true posterior on a simplified SIR model of epidemics, and also demonstrate our method's learning capabilities on a reduced dataset, where a complex model is learned from a small number of compartments for which data is available.

The present study aims to understand the process of turbulent entrainment into a jet, as affected by background turbulence, using scalar statistics. Planar-laser-induced fluorescence was employed to capture the orthogonal cross sections of the jet at a fixed downstream station with varying background turbulence intensities and length scales. The conditional scalar profiles revealed that the thickness of the scalar turbulent/turbulent interface (TTI) is greater than that of the traditional turbulent/non-turbulent interface (TNTI), and the interfacial thickness is an increasing function of the background turbulence intensity. Although nibbling remains the primary entrainment mechanism in the far field, increased occurrence of concentration 'holes' within the interfacial layer in the presence of ambient turbulence suggests a more significant role of large-scale engulfment in the turbulent/turbulent entrainment process (although still below 1% of the total mass flux). Enhanced contribution of the area of detached jet patches (i.e. 'islands') to that of the main jet is hypothesized to be evidence of intense detrainment events in the background turbulence. This can potentially result in a reduced net entrainment into the jet, which manifests as less negative values of scalar skewness within the jet core., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures

Network structures underlie the dynamics of many complex phenomena, from gene regulation and foodwebs to power grids and social media. Yet, as they often cannot be observed directly, their connectivities must be inferred from observations of the dynamics to which they give rise. In this work we present a powerful computational method to infer large network adjacency matrices from time series data using a neural network, in order to provide uncertainty quantification on the prediction in a manner that reflects both the degree to which the inference problem is underdetermined as well as the noise on the data. This is a feature that other approaches have hitherto been lacking. We demonstrate our method's capabilities by inferring line failure locations in the British power grid from its response to a power cut, providing probability densities on each edge and allowing the use of hypothesis testing to make meaningful probabilistic statements about the location of the cut. Our method is significantly more accurate than both Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling and least squares regression on noisy data and when the problem is underdetermined, while naturally extending to the case of non-linear dynamics, which we demonstrate by learning an entire cost matrix for a non-linear model of economic activity in Greater London. Not having been specifically engineered for network inference, this method in fact represents a general parameter estimation scheme that is applicable to any high-dimensional parameter space.

Computational models have become a powerful tool in the quantitative sciences to understand the behaviour of complex systems that evolve in time. However, they often contain a potentially large number of free parameters whose values cannot be obtained from theory but need to be inferred from data. This is especially the case for models in the social sciences, economics, or computational epidemiology. Yet many current parameter estimation methods are mathematically involved and computationally slow to run. In this paper we present a computationally simple and fast method to retrieve accurate probability densities for model parameters using neural differential equations. We present a pipeline comprising multi-agent models acting as forward solvers for systems of ordinary or stochastic differential equations, and a neural network to then extract parameters from the data generated by the model. The two combined create a powerful tool that can quickly estimate densities on model parameters, even for very large systems. We demonstrate the method on synthetic time series data of the SIR model of the spread of infection, and perform an in-depth analysis of the Harris-Wilson model of economic activity on a network, representing a non-convex problem. For the latter, we apply our method both to synthetic data and to data of economic activity across Greater London. We find that our method calibrates the model orders of magnitude more accurately than a previous study of the same dataset using classical techniques, while running between 195 and 390 times faster.

Deep learning based device fingerprinting has emerged as a key method of identifying and authenticating devices solely via their captured RF transmissions. Conventional approaches are not portable to different domains in that if a model is trained on data from one domain, it will not perform well on data from a different but related domain. Examples of such domains include the receiver hardware used for collecting the data, the day/time on which data was captured, and the protocol configuration of devices. This work proposes Tweak, a technique that, using metric learning and a calibration process, enables a model trained with data from one domain to perform well on data from another domain. This process is accomplished with only a small amount of training data from the target domain and without changing the weights of the model, which makes the technique computationally lightweight and thus suitable for resource-limited IoT networks. This work evaluates the effectiveness of Tweak vis-a-vis its ability to identify IoT devices using a testbed of real LoRa-enabled devices under various scenarios. The results of this evaluation show that Tweak is viable and especially useful for networks with limited computational resources and applications with time-sensitive missions.

Cancer patients experience high rates of chronic pain throughout the treatment process. Assessing pain for this patient population is a vital component of psychological and functional well-being, as it can cause a rapid deterioration of quality of life. Existing work in facial pain detection often have deficiencies in labeling or methodology that prevent them from being clinically relevant. This paper introduces the first chronic cancer pain dataset, collected as part of the Intelligent Sight and Sound (ISS) clinical trial, guided by clinicians to help ensure that model findings yield clinically relevant results. The data collected to date consists of 29 patients, 509 smartphone videos, 189,999 frames, and self-reported affective and activity pain scores adopted from the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI). Using static images and multi-modal data to predict self-reported pain levels, early models show significant gaps between current methods available to predict pain today, with room for improvement. Due to the especially sensitive nature of the inherent Personally Identifiable Information (PII) of facial images, the dataset will be released under the guidance and control of the National Institutes of Health (NIH)., Comment: Published as conference paper at the 35th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2021) Track on Datasets and Benchmarks