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Land-use change models can help to develop a holistic understanding of the range of potential impacts of different land-use related policy options, and so can strengthen development and implementation of policies to meet a range of objectives, including biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, sustainable development and food security. Brazil’s Native Vegetation Protection Act, commonly known as the Forest Code (FC), is one example of a policy that can be used to achieve several objectives. Using land-use modelling to inform ongoing decisions on how the provisions of the FC are put into practice can help to increase its effectiveness in meeting multiple objectives and commitments. Model projections show that the full implementation of the provisions of the FC will both reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to conserving biodiversity in Brazil. They further highlight the importance for biodiversity conservation of implementing the Environmental Reserve Tradable Certificate (CRAi in Portuguese) mechanism quickly and effectively. Model results also show the need to put in place additional measures to protect areas, such as the Caatinga forests and grassy savanna in the Cerrado,which may suffer increased land-use pressures as a result of the FC., La modélisation des changements d’affectation des terres peut contribuer à développer une vision globale de l’ensemble des impacts potentiels exercés par les différentes actions possibles concernant l’utilisation des sols. Cela permet également de renforcer l’élaboration et la mise en oeuvre des politiques en vue d’atteindre un certain nombre d’objectifs, concernant notamment le développement durable, l’atténuation du changement climatique, la sécurité alimentaire et la protection de la biodiversité. Les pays membres de la Commission des forêts d’Afrique centrale (COMIFAC) se sont engagés à assurer une gestion durable des espaces forestiers de la région, notamment dans le cadre du « Plan de convergence » de la COMIFAC, et à accomplir les objectifs de développement durable (ODD). La réalisation de ces objectifs est subordonnée à l’élaboration et à l’application des politiques et approches nationales nouvelles et existantes. Les prévisions basées sur la modélisation de l’affectation des terres mettent en lumière de possibles synergies et compromis dans la réalisation des ODD, selon différents scénarios de politiques macroéconomiques et d’utilisation des sols. Elles soulignent en particulier l’importance de protéger efficacement certaines zones et concessions forestières pour la conservation des grands singes et d’autres espèces menacées, et montrent que le maintien de ces zones exerce un impact négligeable sur la production agricole de la région. Au vu du développement continu de la région, étendre les zones protégées pourrait permettre de réduire considérablement le nombre d’espèces perdant une grande partie de leur habitat. Toutefois, l’expansion des zones protégées doit être bien planifiée afin d’éviter de produire des effets néfastes pour certaines espèces ou des troubles sociétaux, tels que l’insécurité alimentaire.

Land-use change models can help to develop a holistic understanding of the range of potential impacts of different land-use related policy options, and so can strengthen development and implementation of policies to meet a range of objectives, including biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, sustainable development and food security. Brazil’s Native Vegetation Protection Act, commonly known as the Forest Code (FC), is one example of a policy that can be used to achieve several objectives. Using land-use modelling to inform ongoing decisions on how the provisions of the FC are put into practice can help to increase its effectiveness in meeting multiple objectives and commitments. Model projections show that the full implementation of the provisions of the FC will both reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to conserving biodiversity in Brazil. They further highlight the importance for biodiversity conservation of implementing the Environmental Reserve Tradable Certificate (CRA in Portuguese) mechanism quickly and effectively. Model results also show the need to put in place additional measures to protect areas, such as the Caatinga forests and grassy savanna in the Cerrado, which may suffer increased land-use pressures as a result of the FC.

Land-use change models can help in developing a holistic understanding of the range of potential impacts of different land-use related policy options, and so strengthen the development and implementation of policies to meet a range of objectives; including sustainable development, climate change mitigation, food security and biodiversity conservation. Member countries of the Central Africa Forest Commission (COMIFAC) have committed to sustainable management of the region’s forests, including under the COMIFAC “Convergence Plan”, and to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving these objectives is dependent on the development, and implementation, of new and existing national policies and approaches. Projections from land-use modelling identify potential trade-offs and synergies in the achievement of the SDGs under different macro-economic and land-use policy related scenarios. In particular they highlight the importance of effective protected areas and forest concessions for the conservation of Great Apes and other threatened species, and show that maintaining these areas has negligible impact on agricultural production in the region. As development continues in the region, further increasing the extent of protected areas could play a role in greatly reducing the number of species losing a large proportion of their habitat. However, protected area expansion needs to be well planned to avoid adverse impacts on particular species and societal challenges such as food security.