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Every year, 11% of infants are born preterm with significant health consequences, with the vaginal microbiome a risk factor for preterm birth. We crowdsource models to predict (1) preterm birth (PTB;

Objective The timely stratification of trauma injury severity can enhance the quality of trauma care but it requires intense manual annotation from certified trauma coders. The objective of this study is to develop machine learning models for the stratification of trauma injury severity across various body regions using clinical text and structured electronic health records (EHRs) data. Materials and Methods Our study utilized clinical documents and structured EHR variables linked with the trauma registry data to create 2 machine learning models with different approaches to representing text. The first one fuses concept unique identifiers (CUIs) extracted from free text with structured EHR variables, while the second one integrates free text with structured EHR variables. Temporal validation was undertaken to ensure the models' temporal generalizability. Additionally, analyses to assess the variable importance were conducted. Results Both models demonstrated impressive performance in categorizing leg injuries, achieving high accuracy with macro-F1 scores of over 0.8. Additionally, they showed considerable accuracy, with macro-F1 scores exceeding or near 0.7, in assessing injuries in the areas of the chest and head. We showed in our variable importance analysis that the most important features in the model have strong face validity in determining clinically relevant trauma injuries. Discussion The CUI-based model achieves comparable performance, if not higher, compared to the free-text-based model, with reduced complexity. Furthermore, integrating structured EHR data improves performance, particularly when the text modalities are insufficiently indicative. Conclusions Our multi-modal, multiclass models can provide accurate stratification of trauma injury severity and clinically relevant interpretations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Applications of machine learning in healthcare are of high interest and have the potential to improve patient care. Yet, the real-world accuracy of these models in clinical practice and on different patient subpopulations remains unclear. To address these important questions, we hosted a community challenge to evaluate methods that predict healthcare outcomes. We focused on the prediction of all-cause mortality as the community challenge question. Materials and methods Using a Model-to-Data framework, 345 registered participants, coalescing into 25 independent teams, spread over 3 continents and 10 countries, generated 25 accurate models all trained on a dataset of over 1.1 million patients and evaluated on patients prospectively collected over a 1-year observation of a large health system. Results The top performing team achieved a final area under the receiver operator curve of 0.947 (95% CI, 0.942-0.951) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.487 (95% CI, 0.458-0.499) on a prospectively collected patient cohort. Discussion Post hoc analysis after the challenge revealed that models differ in accuracy on subpopulations, delineated by race or gender, even when they are trained on the same data. Conclusion This is the largest community challenge focused on the evaluation of state-of-the-art machine learning methods in a healthcare system performed to date, revealing both opportunities and pitfalls of clinical AI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While many patients seem to recover from SARS-CoV-2 infections, many patients report experiencing SARS-CoV-2 symptoms for weeks or months after their acute COVID-19 ends, even developing new symptoms weeks after infection. These long-term effects are called post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) or, more commonly, Long COVID. The overall prevalence of Long COVID is currently unknown, and tools are needed to help identify patients at risk for developing long COVID., Methods: A working group of the Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics-radical (RADx-rad) program, comprised of individuals from various NIH institutes and centers, in collaboration with REsearching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) developed and organized the Long COVID Computational Challenge (L3C), a community challenge aimed at incentivizing the broader scientific community to develop interpretable and accurate methods for identifying patients at risk of developing Long COVID. From August 2022 to December 2022, participants developed Long COVID risk prediction algorithms using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) data enclave, a harmonized data repository from over 75 healthcare institutions from across the United States (U.S.)., Findings: Over the course of the challenge, 74 teams designed and built 35 Long COVID prediction models using the N3C data enclave. The top 10 teams all scored above a 0.80 Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUROC) with the highest scoring model achieving a mean AUROC of 0.895. Included in the top submission was a visualization dashboard that built timelines for each patient, updating the risk of a patient developing Long COVID in response to clinical events., Interpretation: As a result of L3C, federal reviewers identified multiple machine learning models that can be used to identify patients at risk for developing Long COVID. Many of the teams used approaches in their submissions which can be applied to future clinical prediction questions., Funding: Research reported in this RADx® Rad publication was supported by the National Institutes of Health. Timothy Bergquist, Johanna Loomba, and Emily Pfaff were supported by Axle Subcontract: NCATS-STSS-P00438., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests Danielle Mowery serves as an unpaid member of the Epic Cosmos Governing Council. Romain Pirracchio received funding from the FDA CERSI grant U01FD005978 and the PCORI grant P0562155 and received a consulting honorarium from Phillips. Martin van der Laan received funding from the NIAID grant 5R01AI074345. Johanna Loomba received contract funding from the NIH RECOVER program. Emily Pfaff received funding from the NIH and PCORI. The views expressed in this manuscript are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services or the U.S. government. Qi Long was supported by grants from the NIH., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This study aims to develop machine learning models that provide both accurate and equitable predictions of 2-year stroke risk for patients with atrial fibrillation across diverse racial groups., Materials and Methods: Our study utilized structured electronic health records (EHR) data from the All of Us Research Program. Machine learning models (LightGBM) were utilized to capture the relations between stroke risks and the predictors used by the widely recognized CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. We mitigated the racial disparity by creating a representative tuning set, customizing tuning criteria, and setting binary thresholds separately for subgroups. We constructed a hold-out test set that not only supports temporal validation but also includes a larger proportion of Black/African Americans for fairness validation., Results: Compared to the original CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, significant improvements were achieved by modeling their predictors using machine learning models (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve from near 0.70 to above 0.80). Furthermore, applying our disparity mitigation strategies can effectively enhance model fairness compared to the conventional cross-validation approach., Discussion: Modeling CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors with LightGBM and our disparity mitigation strategies achieved decent discriminative performance and excellent fairness performance. In addition, this approach can provide a complete interpretation of each predictor. These highlight its potential utility in clinical practice., Conclusions: Our research presents a practical example of addressing clinical challenges through the All of Us Research Program data. The disparity mitigation framework we proposed is adaptable across various models and data modalities, demonstrating broad potential in clinical informatics., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Wide-bandgap (WBG) perovskite solar cells hold tremendous potential for realizing efficient tandem solar cells. However, nonradiative recombination and carrier transport losses occurring at the perovskite/electron-selective contact (e.g. C 60 ) interface present significant obstacles in approaching their theoretical efficiency limit. To address this, a sequential interface engineering (SIE) strategy that involves the deposition of ethylenediamine diiodide (EDAI 2 ) followed by sequential deposition of 4-Fluoro-Phenethylammonium chloride (4F-PEACl) is implemented. The SIE technique synergistically narrows the conduction band offset and reduces recombination velocity at the perovskite/C 60 interface. The best-performing WBG perovskite solar cell (1.67 eV) delivers a power conversion efficiency (PCE) of 21.8% and an impressive open-circuit voltage of 1.262 V. Moreover, through integration with double-textured silicon featuring submicrometer pyramid structures, a stabilized PCE of 29.6% is attained for a 1 cm 2 monolithic perovskite/silicon tandem cell (certified PCE of 29.0%)., (© 2023 Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

Objective: Applications of machine learning in healthcare are of high interest and have the potential to improve patient care. Yet, the real-world accuracy of these models in clinical practice and on different patient subpopulations remains unclear. To address these important questions, we hosted a community challenge to evaluate methods that predict healthcare outcomes. We focused on the prediction of all-cause mortality as the community challenge question., Materials and Methods: Using a Model-to-Data framework, 345 registered participants, coalescing into 25 independent teams, spread over 3 continents and 10 countries, generated 25 accurate models all trained on a dataset of over 1.1 million patients and evaluated on patients prospectively collected over a 1-year observation of a large health system., Results: The top performing team achieved a final area under the receiver operator curve of 0.947 (95% CI, 0.942-0.951) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.487 (95% CI, 0.458-0.499) on a prospectively collected patient cohort., Discussion: Post hoc analysis after the challenge revealed that models differ in accuracy on subpopulations, delineated by race or gender, even when they are trained on the same data., Conclusion: This is the largest community challenge focused on the evaluation of state-of-the-art machine learning methods in a healthcare system performed to date, revealing both opportunities and pitfalls of clinical AI., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Importance: Machine learning could be used to predict the likelihood of diagnosis and severity of illness. Lack of COVID-19 patient data has hindered the data science community in developing models to aid in the response to the pandemic., Objectives: To describe the rapid development and evaluation of clinical algorithms to predict COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization using patient data by citizen scientists, provide an unbiased assessment of model performance, and benchmark model performance on subgroups., Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic and prognostic study operated a continuous, crowdsourced challenge using a model-to-data approach to securely enable the use of regularly updated COVID-19 patient data from the University of Washington by participants from May 6 to December 23, 2020. A postchallenge analysis was conducted from December 24, 2020, to April 7, 2021, to assess the generalizability of models on the cumulative data set as well as subgroups stratified by age, sex, race, and time of COVID-19 test. By December 23, 2020, this challenge engaged 482 participants from 90 teams and 7 countries., Main Outcomes and Measures: Machine learning algorithms used patient data and output a score that represented the probability of patients receiving a positive COVID-19 test result or being hospitalized within 21 days after receiving a positive COVID-19 test result. Algorithms were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC) scores. Ensemble models aggregating models from the top challenge teams were developed and evaluated., Results: In the analysis using the cumulative data set, the best performance for COVID-19 diagnosis prediction was an AUROC of 0.776 (95% CI, 0.775-0.777) and an AUPRC of 0.297, and for hospitalization prediction, an AUROC of 0.796 (95% CI, 0.794-0.798) and an AUPRC of 0.188. Analysis on top models submitting to the challenge showed consistently better model performance on the female group than the male group. Among all age groups, the best performance was obtained for the 25- to 49-year age group, and the worst performance was obtained for the group aged 17 years or younger., Conclusions and Relevance: In this diagnostic and prognostic study, models submitted by citizen scientists achieved high performance for the prediction of COVID-19 testing and hospitalization outcomes. Evaluation of challenge models on demographic subgroups and prospective data revealed performance discrepancies, providing insights into the potential bias and limitations in the models.

Sepsis is a major cause of mortality in the intensive care units (ICUs). Early intervention of sepsis can improve clinical outcomes for sepsis patients 1,2,3 . Machine learning models have been developed for clinical recognition of sepsis 4,5,6 . A common assumption of supervised machine learning models is that the covariates in the testing data follow the same distributions as those in the training data. When this assumption is violated (e.g., there is covariate shift), models that performed well for training data could perform badly for testing data. Covariate shift happens when the relationships between covariates and the outcome stay the same, but the marginal distributions of the covariates differ among training and testing data. Covariate shift could make clinical risk prediction model nongeneralizable. In this study, we applied covariate shift corrections onto common machine learning models and have observed that these corrections can help the models be more generalizable under the occurrence of covariate shift when detecting the onset of sepsis., (©2021 AMIA - All rights reserved.)