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Variability of North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), characterized by a near-uniform warming at its positive phase, is a consequential mode of climate variability. Modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation, NTA warm anomalies tend to induce La Niña events, droughts in Northeast Brazil, increased frequency of extreme hurricanes, and phytoplankton blooms in the Guinea Dome. Future changes of NTA variability could have profound socioeconomic impacts yet remain unknown. Here, we reveal a robust intensification of NTA variability under greenhouse warming. This intensification mainly arises from strengthening of ENSO-forced Pacific-North American pattern and tropospheric temperature anomalies, as a consequence of an eastward shift of ENSO-induced equatorial Pacific convection and of increased ENSO variability, which enhances ENSO influence by reinforcing the associated wind and moist convection anomalies. The intensification of NTA SST variability suggests increased occurrences of extreme NTA events, with far-reaching ramifications.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Especially noteworthy is the multidecadal Atlantic warming that began in the late 1990s, because recent research suggests that it has influenced Indo-Pacific climate, the character of the ENSO cycle, and the hiatus in global surface warming. Discovery of these pantropical interactions provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate variability in the current climate and for refining projections of future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios.

The East China Sea Kuroshio (ECS‐Kuroshio) and the Ryukyu Current are the major poleward heat carriers in the North Pacific. Anomalous changes of ECS‐Kuroshio and Ryukyu Current could exert substantial influence on the climate in mid‐latitude regions. However, owing to limited observations and coarse resolution of climate models, how they might change under anthropogenic warming remains unknown. Here, we find an accelerating ECS‐Kuroshio (1.5 Sv) and a decelerating (−2.2 Sv) Ryukyu Current using in‐situ observation during 1958–2022, equivalent to 7% strengthening and 20% weakening in the 65 years. The trend is also simulated by four high‐resolution climate models, with multi‐model ensemble‐mean acceleration (deceleration) of the ECS‐Kuroshio (Ryukyu Current) of 1.2 ± 0.6 Sv (−6.2 ± 2.5 Sv) over 1950–2050. The weakening subtropical wind field reduces their summed transport o. Enhanced stratification, which induces uplift of current system and weaker topography‐flow interaction, leads to the intensifying ECS‐Kuroshio and disappearing Ryukyu Current. Plain Language Summary: The East China Sea Kuroshio (ECS‐Kuroshio) and the Ryukyu Current are the major components of western boundary current (WBC) system in the North Pacific. They transport large amount of heat poleward, maintaining the mid‐latitude region warm and habitable. In this study, we find that in both observation and high‐resolution numerical models, the ECS‐Kuroshio is intensifying and the Ryukyu Current is rapidly declining. Particularly, in climate models, the Ryukyu Current is predicted to experience a 45% weakening during 1950–2050. Weakening wind field in the North Pacific tends to reduce the total transport of WBC system. The rapid weakening of the Ryukyu Current is credit to the enhanced stratification under global warming, which induces uplift of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan. Hence, less water will be blocked by bottom topography (Ilan Ridge) and bifurcates into the Ryukyu Current. Our finding highlights the needs for comprehensive studies on the local and climate effects of the evolution of the WBC system in the North Pacific. Key Points: The East China Sea Kuroshio is intensifying while the Ryukyu Current is rapidly declining in a warming climateThe change is mainly caused by enhanced stratification which induces uplift of current system and weaker topography‐flow interaction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sargasso Sea, accommodating marine species and mode water, is highly productive relative to other oligotrophic subtropical regions with intense air‐sea carbon and heat exchanges. Turbulent diapycnal mixing regulates these processes and is generally thought to be weakened in a more stratified ocean under anthropogenic forcing. However, by applying a finescale parameterization to long‐term hydrographic profiles collected during the Bermuda Atlantic Time‐Series Study (BATS), we show that its intensity has become stronger from 1994 to 2019 in the permanent thermocline. The enhanced turbulent diapycnal mixing is mainly attributed to the increase of wind power on internal waves along the Gulf Stream extension. Numerical simulations suggest that stronger internal waves excited along the Gulf Stream extension radiate downward and equatorward, causing enhanced turbulent diapycnal mixing in the northern Sargasso Sea including the BATS station. The findings have important implications for understanding responses of mode water and ecosystem in the Sargasso Sea to anthropogenic forcing. Plain Language Summary: Turbulent mixing contributes to the vertical transport of heat, carbon and nutrients in the ocean, exerting significant effects on the ocean circulations and climate. It is thus important to know how turbulent mixing in the ocean will change under anthropogenic forcing. There is a prevailing thought that turbulent mixing should be weakened under anthropogenic forcing, as the enhanced stratification due to the faster warming in the upper than deeper ocean would hinder the processes generating turbulence. Here, using observation data sampled during the Bermuda Atlantic Time‐Series Study (BATS), we find that the turbulent mixing in the permanent thermocline there has increased by 42% over the past three decades. This positive trend is due to stronger wind energy input on internal waves that are gravity waves propagating within the ocean interior rather than on its surface. As these waves radiate downward and equatorward, they transfer their energy into smaller‐scale internal waves and eventually break, leading to enhanced turbulent mixing in the northern Sargasso Sea. Key Points: Thermocline diapycnal mixing inferred from a finescale parameterization in the northern Sargasso Sea is enhanced from 1994 to 2019Enhanced thermocline diapycnal mixing in the northern Sargasso Sea is due to stronger internal waves excited by intensified winds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models' ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs. In this study, the authors use eddy-resolving climate model simulations and project an almost linear increase of extreme atmospheric rivers with global warming and a doubling of their occurrence under a high emission scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]