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The co-integrated open-economy money demand in the Gambia, a small open economy with a quasi-monetary system and a floating exchange regime, is studied. Money demand appears to be responsive to domestic income, interest rates, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2016[sup.a] 2017[sup.b] 2018[sup.c] 2019[sup.c] Real GDP growth 1.6 2.0 3.5 4.0 Groundnut exports ('000 tonnes) 23.9 24.4 27.1 29.5 Consumer price inflation (av) 7.2 [...]

2015 2016 2017 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr Prices Consumer prices (av; 2005=100) 129.3 131.7 134.3 136.2 138.5 141.3 [...]

After climbing to an estimated annual average of 8.5% in 2017, owing to high food prices and currency weakness, we expect the headline inflation rate to trend down to 6.1% [...]

With the dalasi having been fiercely overvalued by the authorities' interventions over much of the past decade, we expect it to move closer to market fundamentals in 2018-19. It is [...]

International assumptions summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real GDP growth World 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.7 OECD 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.9 EU28 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 Exchange [...]

After sputtering in 2016-17 on the back of political turmoil, a poor agricultural harvest and foreign-exchange shortages, we expect real GDP growth to pick up to 3.5% in 2018. This [...]

2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.a] 2016[sup.a] 2017[sup.b] GDP at market prices (D bn) 32.5 35.4 39.9 42.3 45.4 GDP (US$ m) 903.8 849.1 938.8 962.8 985.2 Real GDP growth (%) 4.8 0.9 [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2015[sup.a] 2016[sup.b] 2017[sup.c] 2018[sup.c] Real GDP growth 4.7[sup.b] -4.0 -2.5 1.5 Groundnut exports ('000 tonnes) 22.4 23.9 24.4 28.1 Consumer price inflation (av) 6.8 [...]

A directive issued by the president's office in May 2015, fixing the exchange rate within a range of D35-45:US$1, remains in force. The official intervention has been criticised by the [...]

We estimate that average headline inflation reached 6.1% in 2016 compared with the CBG's medium-term target of 5%. Despite sluggish economic growth, we expect headline inflation to remain high in [...]

International assumptions summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Real GDP growth World 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.4 OECD 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.7 EU28 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.5 Exchange [...]

2013 2014 2015 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr Prices Consumer prices (av; 2005=100) 118.0 119.2 120.8 123.3 126.0 127.4 [...]

2012[sup.a] 2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.a] 2016[sup.b] GDP at market prices (D bn) 29.3 32.5 35.4 39.9 41.8 GDP (US$ m) 912.6 903.8 849.1 952.6 989.7 Real GDP growth (%) 6.0 4.6 [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.b] 2016[sup.c] 2017[sup.c] Real GDP growth 0.9[sup.b] 4.0 2.6 4.5 Groundnut exports ('000 tonnes) 23.6 27.5 31.7 36.2 Consumer price inflation (av) 5.9 [...]

2013 2014 2015 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr Prices Consumer prices (av; 2005=100) 118.0 119.2 120.8 123.3 126.0 127.4 [...]

2011[sup.a] 2012[sup.a] 2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.a] 2015[sup.b] GDP at market prices (D bn) 26.6 29.3 32.5 33.7 38.9 GDP (US$ m) 904.3 912.6 903.8 807.1 928.3 Real GDP growth (%) -4.3 6.0 [...]

After averaging D43:US$1 on the interbank market in January-May 2015, the dalasi has subsequently strengthened-to D39.9:US$1 in March 2016. This follows the issuing of a directive by the president's office [...]

The Gambia's financial woes do not portend an African public-debt crisis TIMES are tough in Africa. Ebola, in addition to claiming many lives, has also damaged economies. Tourism is suffering [...]

Agricultural output-which comprises around one-fifth of GDP-will remain crucial in 2015-16, when it will continue to benefit from its prioritisation under the government's PAGE, as well as the 2013-16 Country [...]

2010[sup.a] 2011[sup.a] 2012[sup.a] 2013[sup.b] 2014[sup.b] GDP at market prices (D bn) 26.7 26.5 29.3 32.4[sup.a] 35.1 GDP (US$ m) 951.8 898.3 914.1 901.9[sup.a] 838.1 Real GDP growth (%) 6.5 -4.3 [...]

2012 2013 2014 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr Prices Consumer prices (av; 2005=100) 111.5 113.0 114.5 116.4 118.0 119.2 [...]

In late December 2014 the dalasi was trading at D44.7:US$1 on the interbank market, some 18% lower than the year-earlier period. Downward pressure on the currency arises from a number [...]

Forecast summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2013[sup.a] 2014[sup.b] 2015[sup.c] 2016[sup.c] Real GDP growth 6.0 4.1 5.3 5.1 Groundnut exports ('000 tonnes) 29.9 34.3 39.0 44.1 Consumer price inflation (av) 5.7 [...]

International assumptions summary (% unless otherwise indicated) 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP growth World 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.8 OECD 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.3 EU28 0.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 Exchange [...]

After averaging an estimated 6.1% in 2014, inflation is expected to moderate to an annual average of 5.3% in 2015-16 as international prices of food and fuel continue to fall. [...]

Outlook for 2015-16 The president, Yahya Jammeh, and the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction are expected to remain in power throughout the forecast period, with the president winning the [...]

Nearly 11 months after the very first West African Ebola case in south-eastern Guinea, over 13,000 more cases have been recorded, with the death toll nearing 5,000 fatalities. Transmission rates [...]

Remittance flows to Africa are a crucial source of external finance for the majority of the region's countries. According to the World Bank's Migration and Development Brief, published in October, [...]

Earlier this year the Gambia celebrated when a new, democratically elected government led by President Adama Barrow took power. This seismic shift brought with it hopes and optimism among Gambians [...]

Forecast summary ------------------------------------------------------------------ 2012a 2013a 2014b 2015b Real GDP growth 5.2 6.5 7.3 7.0 Groundnut exports ('000 tonnes) 25.8 29.9 34.3 39.0 Consumer price inflation (av) 4.6 6.0 4.2 4.5 [...]

Following sustained pressure on the dalasi in the first half of 2013, the president announced in August 2013 that the local currency would be pegged to the US dollar at [...]

Inflation is estimated to have averaged 6% in 2013, driven by the depreciation of the dalasi; an increase in public spending; a reduction in personal income tax, which will bolster [...]

Agricultural output-which comprises around one-third of GDP-will remain crucial in 2014-15, when it will continue to benefit from public spending after being prioritised under the PAGE, as well as the [...]

Forecast summary ------------------------------------------------------------------- 2011a 2012b 2013c 2014c Real GDP growth -4.1 3.8 6.0 6.0 Groundnut exports ('000 tonnes) 25.9 25.8 29.9 34.3 Consumer price inflation (av) 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 [...]

With global food and oil prices forecast to decrease by another 4.9% and 4.8% respectively in 2013, together with a strong recovery in agricultural output, inflation is expected to fall [...]

The rate of the dalasi's depreciation accelerated in 2012 as a result of subdued tourism inflows, a failed groundnut harvest harming exports and weak foreign direct investment (FDI) reducing the [...]

Having rebounded by an estimated 3.8% in 2012 (following a sharp contraction of 4.1% in 2011, resulting from bad weather affecting harvests), real GDP is expected to accelerate further in [...]

The CBG targets reserve money as its main policy instrument, but also uses interest rates to signal changes in policy. With inflationary pressures easing, the CBG cut its policy interest [...]

The Gambia will seek to narrow its fiscal deficit over the outlook period in order to reduce domestic borrowing. The 2013 budget targets a 31.8% increase in revenue to D7.61bn [...]

The Gambia: forecast summary ------------------------------------------------------------------- 2010a 2011b 2012c 2013c Real GDP growth 5.9b 3.3 -1.0 6.5 Groundnut exports ('000 tonnes) 22.6 25.9 25.8 29.9 Consumer price inflation (av) 5.0 4.8a [...]

In 2011 the currency depreciated to an average of D29.5:US$1 as rising commodity prices and reduced tourism inflows reduced the amount of foreign exchange available in the economy. In 2012 [...]

In 2011 average inflation slowed to 4.8%, owing mainly to lower food price inflation. Although global food prices are forecast to decrease by 11.2% in 2012, inflation is forecast to [...]

The government estimates that real GDP slowed to 3% in 2011 as a result of poor growing conditions for agriculture-which comprises about one-third of GDP. Agricultural output growth is expected [...]

Outlook for 2012-13 The president, Yahya Jammeh, and the ruling party, the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction, are expected to retain a firm grip on power over the forecast [...]