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The geomagnetic "solar flare effect" (SFE) results from excess ionization in the Earth's ionosphere, famously first detected at the time of the Carrington flare in 1859. This indirect detection of a flare constituted one of the first cases of "multimessenger astronomy," whereby solar ionizing radiation stimulates ionospheric currents. Well-observed SFEs have few-minute time scales and perturbations of >10 nT, with the greatest events reaching above 100 nT. In previously reported cases the SFE time profiles tend to resemble those of solar soft X-ray emission, which ionizes the D-region; there is also a less-well-studied contribution from Lyman-alpha. We report here a specific case, from flare SOL2024-03-10 (M7.4), in which an impulsive SFE deviated from this pattern. This flare contained an "early impulsive" component of exceptionally hard radiation, extending up to gamma-ray energies above 1 MeV, distinctly before the bulk of the flare soft X-ray emission. We can characterize the spectral distribution of this early-impulsive component in detail, thanks to the modern extensive wavelength coverage. A more typical gradual SFE occurred during the flare's main phase. We suggest that events of this type warrant exploration of the solar physics in the "impulse response" limit of very short time scales., Comment: MNRAS to be published

Shock waves are excited by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and large-scale extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave fronts and can result in low-frequency radio emission under certain coronal conditions. In this work, we investigate a moving source of low-frequency radio emission as a CME and an associated EUV wave front move along a channel of a lower density, magnetic field, and Alfv\'en speed in the solar corona. Observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Nan\c{c}ay Radio Heliograph (NRH), and the Irish Low Frequency Array(I-LOFAR) were analysed. Differential emission measure maps were generated to determine densities and Alfv\'en maps, and the kinematics of the EUV wave front was tracked using CorPITA. The radio sources' positions and velocity were calculated from NRH images and I-LOFAR dynamic spectra. The EUV wave expanded radially with a uniform velocity of $\sim$ 500 km s$^{-1}$. However, the radio source was observed to be deflected and appeared to move along a channel of a lower Alfv\'en speed, abruptly slowing from 1700 km s$^{-1}$ to 250 km s$^{-1}$ as it entered a quiet-Sun region. A shock wave with an apparent radial velocity of > 420 km s$^{-1}$ was determined from the drift rate of the associated Type II radio burst. The apparent motion of the radio source may have resulted from a wave front moving along a coronal wave guide or by different points along the wave front emitting at locations with favourable conditions for shock formation., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures

Solar radio bursts (SRBs), are emitted by electrons propagating through the corona and interplanetary space. Tracking such bursts is key to understanding the properties of accelerated electrons and radio wave propagation as well as the local plasma environment that they propagate through. Here, we present a novel multilateration algorithm called BayEsian LocaLisation Algorithm (BELLA). In addition, apparent SRB positions from BELLA are compared with comparable localisation methods and the predictions of solar wind models. BELLA uses Bayesian inference to create probabilistic distributions of source positions and their uncertainties. This facilitates the estimation of algorithmic, instrumental, and physical uncertainties in a quantitative manner. We validated BELLA using simulations and a Type III SRB observed by STEREO A/B and Wind. BELLA tracked the Type III source from $\sim$ 10--150 $R_{sun}$ (2-0.15 MHz) along a spiral trajectory. This allowed for an estimate of an apparent solar wind speed of $v_{sw} \sim$ 400 km s$^{-1}$ and a source longitude of $\phi_0 \sim$ 30deg. We compared these results with well-established methods of positioning: Goniopolarimetric (GP), analytical time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA), and Solar radio burst Electron Motion Tracker (SEMP). We found them to be in agreement with the results obtained by BELLA. Additionally, the results aligned with solar wind properties assimilated by the Heliospheric Upwind Extrapolation with time dependence (HUXt) model. We have validated BELLA and used it to identify apparent source positions as well as velocities and densities of the solar wind. Furthermore, we identified higher than expected electron densities, suggesting that the true emission sources were at lower altitudes than those identified by BELLA, an effect that may be due to appreciable scattering of electromagnetic waves by electrons in interplanetary space., Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, in press, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics for publication

The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence aims to find evidence of technosignatures, which can point toward the possible existence of technologically advanced extraterrestrial life. Radio signals similar to those engineered on Earth may be transmitted by other civilizations, motivating technosignature searches across the entire radio spectrum. In this endeavor, the low-frequency radio band has remained largely unexplored; with prior radio searches primarily above 1 GHz. In this survey at 110-190 MHz, observations of 1,631,198 targets from TESS and Gaia are reported. Observations took place simultaneously with two international stations (noninterferometric) of the Low Frequency Array in Ireland and Sweden. We can reject the presence of any Doppler drifting narrowband transmissions in the barycentric frame of reference, with equivalent isotropic radiated power of 10 17 W, for 0.4 million (or 1.3 million) stellar systems at 110 (or 190) MHz. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using multisite simultaneous observations for rejecting anthropogenic signals in the search for technosignatures., Comment: 15 Pages, 16 Figures, 2 Machine Readable Tables

International LOFAR stations are powerful radio telescopes, however they are delivered without the tooling necessary to convert their raw data stream into standard data formats that can be used by common processing pipelines, or science-ready data products. udpPacketManager is a C and C++ library that was developed with the intent of providing a faster-than-realtime software package for converting raw data into arbitrary data formats based on the needs of observers working with the Irish LOFAR station (I-LOFAR), and stations across Europe. It currently offers an open-source solution for both offline and online (pre-)processing of telescope data into a wide variety of formats., Comment: In review, Journal of Open Source Science, joss-reviews/issues/5517

One of the greatest challenge facing current space weather monitoring operations is forecasting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) within their Earth-Sun propagation timescales. Current campaigns mainly rely on extreme ultra-violet and white light observations to create forecasts, missing out many potential events that may be hazardous to Earth's infrastructure undetectable at these wavelengths. Here we introduce the SURROUND mission, a constellation of CubeSats each with identical radio spectrometers, and the results of the initial Phase-0 study for the concept. The main goal of SURROUND is to monitor and track solar radio bursts (SRBs), widely utilised as a useful diagnostic for space weather activity, and revolutionise current forecasting capabilities. The Phase-0 study concludes that SURROUND can achieve its mission objectives using 3 - 5 spacecraft using current technologies with feasible SEP and CME forecasting potential: a first for heliospheric monitors., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Planetary, Solar and Heliospheric Radio Emissions IX, held 26-28 September, 2022 [ACCEPTED]; Edited by: C. K. Louis, C. M. Jackman, G. Fischer, A. H. Sulaiman, P. Zucca, Publishers: Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies and Trinity College Dublin. (these authors contributed equally to this work: D. M. Weigt, L. A. Ca\~nizares)

Rotating radio transients (RRATs) are neutron stars that emit detectable radio bursts sporadically. They are statistically distinct in the neutron star population, in many observable properties, but by their nature are practically difficult to study in depth. In this paper, we present the results from 1408 h of observations of RRAT candidates using the Irish station of the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) at 150 MHz. As of October 2022, this census involved observing 113 sources, leading to 29 detections which were then followed up systematically. Single-pulse emission was detected from 25 sources, and periodic emission from 14 sources. 18 sources were found to have emission behaviour that is not discussed in prior works using LOFAR instruments. Four novel or modified source periods have been determined, ranging from 1.5-3.9 s, and 8 new or updated phase-coherent pulsar timing ephemerides have been produced using detected bursts. One unexpected single-pulse with a clearly-Galactic dispersion measure was detected as a part of this work, but has not been re-detected in follow-up observations. Observations are ongoing to expand the number of observed sources and further characterise and improve ephemerides for the detected sources. This census has demonstrated the capability for international LOFAR stations to detect, monitor and characterise a significant fraction of these unique sources., Comment: Accepted by MNRAS. 24 pages, 7 figures, 8 tables

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) driven by geoelectric fields pose a hazard to ground-based infrastructure, such as power grids and pipelines. Here, a new method is presented for modelling geoelectric fields in near real time, with the aim of providing valuable information to help mitigate the impact of GIC. The method uses magnetic field measurements from the Magnetometer Network of Ireland (MagIE; \url{www.magie.ie}), interpolates the geomagnetic field variations between magnetometers using spherical elementary current systems (SECS), and estimates the local electric field using a high density ($<~40~km$) network of magnetotelluric transfer functions (MT-TF) encompassing the island. The model was optimised to work in near real time, with a correction curve applied to the geoelectric field time series. This approach was successfully validated with measured electric fields at four sites for a number of geomagnetic storms, providing accurate electric fields up to a 1-minute delay from real time, with high coherence ($0.70 - 0.85$) and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR; $3.2 - 6.5$) relative to measured electric field validation time series .This was comparable to a standard non real-time geoelectric field model (coherence$~=~0.80 - 0.89$ and SNR$~=~4.0 - 7.0$). The impact of galvanic distortion on the model was also briefly evaluated, with a galvanic distortion correction leading to a more homogeneous representation of the direction of the electric field, at a regional scale.

Type II solar radio bursts are caused by magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) shocks driven by solar eruptive events such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Often both fundamental and harmonic bands of type II bursts are split into sub-bands, generally believed to be coming from upstream and downstream regions of the shock; however this explanation remains unconfirmed. Here we present combined results from imaging analysis of type II radio burst band-splitting and other fine structures, observed by the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) and extreme ultraviolet observations from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on 2014-Sep-28. The MWA provides imaging-spectroscopy in the range of 80-300 MHz with a time resolution of 0.5 s and frequency resolution of 40 kHz. Our analysis shows that the burst was caused by a piston-driven shock with a driver speed of $\sim$112 km s$^{-1}$ and shock speed of $\sim$580 km s$^{-1}$. We provide rare evidence that band-splitting is caused by emission from multiple parts of the shock (as opposed to the upstream/downstream hypothesis). We also examine the small-scale motion of type II fine structure radio sources in MWA images. We suggest that this small-scale motion may arise due to radio propagation effects from coronal turbulence, and not because of the physical motion of the shock location. We present a novel technique that uses imaging spectroscopy to directly determine the effective length scale of turbulent density perturbations, which is found to be 1 - 2 Mm. The study of the systematic and small-scale motion of fine structures may therefore provide a measure of turbulence in different regions of the shock and corona., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, Astronomy & Astrophysics journal (accepted)

The Sun is the source of different types of radio bursts that are associated with solar flares, for example. Among the most frequently observed phenomena are type III solar bursts. Their radio images at low frequencies (below 100 MHz) are relatively poorly studied due to the limitations of legacy radio telescopes. We study the general characteristics of types IIIb and U with stria structure solar radio bursts in the frequency range of 20 - 80 MHz, in particular the source size and evolution in different altitudes, as well as the velocity and energy of electron beams responsible for their generation. In this work types IIIb and U with stria structure radio bursts are analyzed using data from the LOFAR telescope including dynamic spectra and imaging observations, as well as data taken in the X-ray range (GOES and RHESSI satellites) and in the extreme ultraviolet (SDO satellite). In this study we determined the source size limited by the actual shape of the contour at particular frequencies of type IIIb and U solar bursts in a relatively wide frequency band from 20 to 80 MHz. Two of the bursts seem to appear at roughly the same place in the studied active region and their source sizes are similar. It is different in the case of another burst, which seems to be related to another part of the magnetic field structure in this active region. The velocities of the electron beams responsible for the generation of the three bursts studied here were also found to be different., Comment: Astronomy & Astrophysics, in press; 9 pages, 6 figures

We report the detection of a significant ionospheric disturbance in the D-region of Earth's ionosphere which was associated with the massive gamma-ray burst GRB 221009A that occurred on October 9 2022. We identified the disturbance over northern Europe - a result of the increased ionisation by X- and gamma-ray emission from the GRB - using very low frequency (VLF) radio waves as a probe of the D-region. These observations demonstrate that an extra-galactic GRB can have a significant impact on the terrestrial ionosphere and illustrates that the Earth's ionosphere can be used as a giant X- and gamma-ray detector. Indeed, these observations may provide insights into the impacts of GRBs on the ionospheres of planets in our solar system and beyond., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure

Flagellar motility is critical to natural and many forms of assisted reproduction. Rhythmic beating and wave propagation by the flagellum propels sperm through fluid and enables modulation between penetrative progressive motion, activated side-to-side yaw and hyperactivated motility associated with detachment from epithelial binding. These motility changes occur in response to the properties of the surrounding fluid environment, biochemical activation state, and physiological ligands, however a parsimonious mechanistic explanation of flagellar beat generation that can explain motility modulation is lacking. In this paper we present the Axonemal Regulation of Curvature, Hysteretic model (ARCH), a curvature control-type theory based on switching of active moment by local curvature, embedded within a geometrically nonlinear elastic model of the flagellum exhibiting planar flagellar beats, together with nonlocal viscous fluid dynamics. The biophysical system is parameterised completely by four dimensionless parameter groupings. The effect of parameter variation is explored through computational simulation, revealing beat patterns that are qualitatively representative of penetrative (straight progressive), activated (highly yawing) and hyperactivated (non-progressive) modes. Anaylsis of the flagellar limit cycles and associated swimming velocity reveals a cusp catastrophe between progressive and non-progressive modes, and hysteresis in the response to changes in critical curvature parameter. Quantitative comparison to experimental data on human sperm exhibiting typical penetrative, activated and hyperactivated beats shows a good fit to the time-average absolute curvature profile along the flagellum, providing evidence that the model is capable of providing a framework for quantitative interpretation of imaging data., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures main manuscript

Solar radio emission at low frequencies (<1 GHz) can provide valuable information on processes driving flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Radio emission has been detected from active M dwarf stars, suggestive of much higher levels of activity than previously thought. Observations of active M dwarfs at low frequencies can provide information on the emission mechanism for high energy flares and possible stellar CMEs. Here, we conducted two observations with the Australian Square Kilometre Pathfinder Telescope (ASKAP) totalling 26 hours and scheduled to overlap with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Sector 36 field, utilising the wide fields of view of both telescopes to search for multiple M dwarfs. We detected variable radio emission in Stokes I centered at 888 MHz from four known active M dwarfs. Two of these sources were also detected with Stokes V circular polarisation. When examining the detected radio emission characteristics, we were not able distinguish between the models for either electron cyclotron maser or gyrosynchrotron emission. These detections add to the growing number of M dwarfs observed with variable low frequency emission., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables

Type III radio bursts are the result of plasma emission from mildly relativistic electron beams propagating from the low solar corona into the heliosphere where they can eventually be detected in situ if they align with the location of a heliospheric spacecraft. Here we observe a type III radio burst from 0.1-16 MHz using the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) FIELDS Radio Frequency Spectrometer (RFS), and from 20-80 MHz using the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR). This event was not associated with any detectable flare activity but was part of an ongoing type III and noise storm that occurred during PSP encounter 2. A deprojection of the LOFAR radio sources into 3D space shows that the type III radio burst sources were located on open magnetic field from 1.6-3 R$_\odot$ and originated from a near-equatorial active region around longitude E48$^o$. Combining PSP/RFS observations with WIND/WAVES and STEREO/WAVES, we reconstruct the type III radio source trajectory in the heliosphere interior to PSP's position, assuming ecliptic confinement. An energetic electron enhancement is subsequently detected in situ at the STEREO-A spacecraft at compatible times although the onset and duration suggests the individual burst contributes a subset of the enhancement. This work shows relatively small-scale flux emergence in the corona can cause the injection of electron beams from the low corona into the heliosphere, without needing a strong solar flare. The complementary nature of combined ground and space-based radio observations, especially in the era of PSP, is also clearly highlighted by this study., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, Submitted to ApJ: April 15 2022, Accepted: September 7 2022

The Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) is an international radio telescope array, consisting of 38 stations in the Netherlands and 14 international stations spread over Europe. Here we present an observation method to study the jovian decametric radio emissions from several LOFAR stations (here DE604, FR606 and IE613), at high temporal and spectral resolution. This method is based on prediction tools, such as radio emission simulations and probability maps, and data processing. We report an observation of Io-induced decametric emission from June 2021, and a first case study of the substructures that compose the macroscopic emissions (called millisecond bursts). The study of these bursts make it possible to determine the electron populations at the origin of these emissions. We then present several possible future avenues for study based on these observations. The methodology and study perspectives described in this paper can be applied to new observations of jovian radio emissions induced by Io, but also by Ganymede or Europa, or jovian auroral radio emissions., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, submitted to the Royal Astronomical Society Techniques and Instruments journal

Solar flares significantly impact the conditions of the Earth's ionosphere. In particular, the sudden increase in X-ray flux during a flare penetrates down to the lowest-lying D-region and dominates ionization at these altitudes (60-100 km). Measurements of very low frequency (VLF: 3-30kHz) radio waves that reflect at D-region altitudes provide a unique remote-sensing probe to investigate the D-region response to solar flare emissions. Here, using a combination of VLF amplitude measurements at 24kHz together with X-ray observations from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) X-ray sensor, we present a large-scale statistical study of 334 solar flare events and their impacts on the D-region over the past solar cycle. Focusing on both GOES broadband X-ray channels, we investigate how the flare peak fluxes and position on the solar disk dictate an ionospheric response and extend this to investigate the characteristic time delay between incident X-ray flux and the D-region response. We show that the VLF amplitude linearly correlates with both the 1-8 A and 0.5-4 A channels, with correlation coefficients of 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Unlike higher altitude ionospheric regions for which the location of the flare on the solar disk affects the ionospheric response, we find that the D-region response to solar flares does not depend on the flare location. By comparing the time delays between the peak X-ray fluxes in both GOES channels and VLF amplitudes, we find that there is an important difference between the D-region response and the X-ray spectral band. We also demonstrate for several flare events that show a negative time delay, the peak VLF amplitude matches with the impulsive 25-50 keV hard X-ray fluxes measured by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI)., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, accepted in Solar Physics

Modern radio interferometers such as the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) are capable of producing data at hundreds of gigabits to terabits per second. This high data rate makes the analysis of radio data cumbersome and computationally expensive. While high performance computing facilities exist for large national and international facilities, that may not be the case for instruments operated by a single institution or a small consortium. Data rates for next generation radio telescopes are set to eclipse those currently in operation, hence local processing of data will become all the more important. Here, we introduce the REAL-time Transient Acquisition backend (REALTA), a computing backend at the Irish LOFAR station (I-LOFAR) which facilitates the recording of data in near real-time and post-processing. We also present first searches and scientific results of a number of radio phenomena observed by I-LOFAR and REALTA, including pulsars, fast radio bursts (FRBs), rotating radio transients (RRATs), the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), Jupiter, and the Sun., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomical instrumentation section of Astronomy & Astrophysics 24/08/2021

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is the HXR instrument onboard Solar Orbiter designed to observe solar flares over a broad range of flare sizes, between 4-150 keV. We report the first STIX observations of microflares recorded during the instrument commissioning phase in order to investigate the STIX performance at its detection limit. This first result paper focuses on the temporal and spectral evolution of STIX microflares occuring in the AR12765 in June 2020, and compares the STIX measurements with GOES/XRS, SDO/AIA, and Hinode/XRT. For the observed microflares of the GOES A and B class, the STIX peak time at lowest energies is located in the impulsive phase of the flares, well before the GOES peak time. Such a behavior can either be explained by the higher sensitivity of STIX to higher temperatures compared to GOES, or due to the existence of a nonthermal component reaching down to low energies. The interpretation is inconclusive due to limited counting statistics for all but the largest flare in our sample. For this largest flare, the low-energy peak time is clearly due to thermal emission, and the nonthermal component seen at higher energies occurs even earlier. This suggests that the classic thermal explanation might also be favored for the majority of the smaller flares. In combination with EUV and SXR observations, STIX corroborates earlier findings that an isothermal assumption is of limited validity. Future diagnostic efforts should focus on multi-wavelength studies to derive differential emission measure distributions over a wide range of temperatures to accurately describe the energetics of solar flares. Commissioning observations confirm that STIX is working as designed. As a rule of thumb, STIX detects flares as small as the GOES A class. For flares above the GOES B class, detailed spectral and imaging analyses can be performed., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures

The EU funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from Jan 2015 until Feb 2018. FLARECAST had a R2O focus, and introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of hundreds of physical properties viewed as promising flare predictors on equal footing, extending multiple previous works; second, the use of fourteen (14) different ML techniques, also on equal footing, to optimize the immense Big Data parameter space created by these many predictors; third, the establishment of a robust, three-pronged communication effort oriented toward policy makers, space-weather stakeholders and the wider public. FLARECAST pledged to make all its data, codes and infrastructure openly available worldwide. The combined use of 170+ properties (a total of 209 predictors are now available) in multiple ML algorithms, some of which were designed exclusively for the project, gave rise to changing sets of best-performing predictors for the forecasting of different flaring levels. At the same time, FLARECAST reaffirmed the importance of rigorous training and testing practices to avoid overly optimistic pre-operational prediction performance. In addition, the project has (a) tested new and revisited physically intuitive flare predictors and (b) provided meaningful clues toward the transition from flares to eruptive flares, namely, events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These leads, along with the FLARECAST data, algorithms and infrastructure, could help facilitate integrated space-weather forecasting efforts that take steps to avoid effort duplication. In spite of being one of the most intensive and systematic flare forecasting efforts to-date, FLARECAST has not managed to convincingly lift the barrier of stochasticity in solar flare occurrence and forecasting: solar flare prediction thus remains inherently probabilistic., Comment: 67 pages, 14 figures; submitted

The solar corona is a highly-structured plasma which can reach temperatures of more than ~2 MK. At low frequencies (decimetric and metric wavelengths), scattering and refraction of electromagnetic waves are thought to considerably increase the imaged radio source sizes (up to a few arcminutes). However, exactly how source size relates to scattering due to turbulence is still subject to investigation. The theoretical predictions relating source broadening to propagation effects have not been fully confirmed by observations due to the rarity of high spatial resolution observations of the solar corona at low frequencies. Here, the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) was used to observe the solar corona at 120-180 MHz using baselines of up to ~3.5 km (corresponding to a resolution of ~1-2') during the partial solar eclipse of 2015 March 20. A lunar de-occultation technique was used to achieve higher spatial resolution (~0.6') than that attainable via standard interferometric imaging (~2.4'). This provides a means of studying the contribution of scattering to apparent source size broadening. It was found that the de-occultation technique reveals a more structured quiet corona that is not resolved from standard imaging, implying scattering may be overestimated in this region when using standard imaging techniques. However, an active region source was measured to be ~4' using both de-occultation and standard imaging. This may be explained by the increased scattering of radio waves by turbulent density fluctuations in active regions, which is more severe than in the quiet Sun., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, 1 table

A common feature of electromagnetic emission from solar flares is the presence of intensity pulsations that vary as a function of time. Known as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), these variations in flux appear to include periodic components and characteristic time-scales. Here, we analyse a GOES M3.7 class flare exhibiting pronounced QPPs across a broad band of wavelengths using imaging and time-series analysis. We identify QPPs in the timeseries of X-ray, low frequency radio and EUV wavelengths using wavelet analysis, and localise the region of the flare site from which the QPPs originate via X-ray and EUV imaging. It was found that the pulsations within the 171 \.A, 1600 \.A, soft X-ray (SXR), and hard X-ray (HXR) light curves yielded similar periods of $\sim$122 s, $\sim$131s, $\sim$123 s, and $\sim$137 s, respectively, indicating a common progenitor. The low frequency radio emission at 2.5 MHz contained a longer period of $\sim$231 s. Imaging analysis indicates that the location of the X-ray and EUV pulsations originates from a HXR footpoint linked to a system of nearby open magnetic field lines. Our results suggest that intermittent particle acceleration, likely due to 'bursty' magnetic reconnection, is responsible for the QPPs. The precipitating electrons accelerated towards the chromosphere produce the X-ray and EUV pulsations, while the escaping electrons result in low frequency radio pulses in the form of type III radio bursts. The modulation of the reconnection process, resulting in episodic particle acceleration, explains the presence of these QPPs across the entire spatial range of flaring emission.

The Sun produces highly dynamic and eruptive events that can drive shocks through the corona. These shocks can accelerate electrons, which result in plasma emission in the form of a type II radio burst. Despite the large number of type II radio bursts observations, the precise origin of coronal shocks is still subject to investigation. Here we present a well observed solar eruptive event that occurred on 16 October 2015, focusing on a jet observed in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA), a streamer observed in white-light by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO), and a metric type II radio burst observed by the LOw Frequency Array (LOFAR). LOFAR interferometrically imaged the fundamental and harmonic sources of a type II radio burst and revealed that the sources did not appear to be co-spatial, as would be expected from the plasma emission mechanism. We correct for the separation between the fundamental and harmonic using a model which accounts for scattering of radio waves by electron density fluctuations in a turbulent plasma. This allows us to show the type II radio sources were located $\sim$0.5 R$_\odot$ above the jet and propagated at a speed of $\sim$1000 kms$^{-1}$, which was significantly faster than the jet speed of $\sim$200 kms$^{-1}$. This suggests that the type II burst was generated by a piston shock driven by the jet in the low corona.

Low frequency radio wave scattering and refraction can have a dramatic effect on the observed size and position of radio sources in the solar corona. The scattering and refraction is thought to be due to fluctuations in electron density caused by turbulence. Hence, determining the true radio source size can provide information on the turbulence in coronal plasma. However, the lack of high spatial resolution radio interferometric observations at low frequencies, such as with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR), has made it difficult to determine the true radio source size and level of radio wave scattering. Here we directly fit the visibilities of a LOFAR observation of a Type IIIb radio burst with an elliptical Gaussian to determine its source size and position. This circumvents the need to image the source and then de-convolve LOFAR's point spread function, which can introduce spurious effects to the source size and shape. For a burst at 34.76 MHz, we find full width at half maximum (FWHM) heights along the major and minor axes to be $18.8^\prime$ $\pm~0.1^\prime$ and $10.2^\prime$ $\pm~0.1^\prime$, respectively, at a plane of sky heliocentric distance of 1.75 R$_\odot$. Our results suggest that the level of density fluctuations in the solar corona is the main cause of the scattering of radio waves, resulting in large source sizes. However, the magnitude of $\varepsilon$ may be smaller than what has been previously derived in observations of radio wave scattering in tied-array images., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used by the terrestrial weather community to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASAP, ASSA, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and MCSTAT). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the method's ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. It is found that most ensembles achieve a better skill metric (between 5\% and 15\%) than any of the members alone. Moreover, over 90\% of ensembles perform better (as measured by forecast attributes) than a simple equal-weights average. Finally, ensemble uncertainties are highly dependent on the internal metric being optimized and they are estimated to be less than 20\% for probabilities greater than 0.2. This simple multi-model, linear ensemble technique can provide operational space weather centres with the basis for constructing a versatile ensemble forecasting system -- an improved starting point to their forecasts that can be tailored to different end-user needs., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

We present an analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) on board NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Between August 2008 and April 2014 we identify 273 CMEs that are observed simultaneously, by the HIs on both spacecraft. For each CME, we track the observed leading edge, as a function of time, from both vantage points, and apply the Stereoscopic Self-Similar Expansion (SSSE) technique to infer their propagation throughout the inner heliosphere. The technique is unable to accurately locate CMEs when their observed leading edge passes between the spacecraft, however, we are able to successfully apply the technique to 151, most of which occur once the spacecraft separation angle exceeds 180 degrees, during solar maximum. We find that using a small half-width to fit the CME can result in observed acceleration to unphysically high velocities and that using a larger half-width can fail to accurately locate the CMEs close to the Sun because the method does not account for CME over-expansion in this region. Observed velocities from SSSE are found to agree well with single-spacecraft (SSEF) analysis techniques applied to the same events. CME propagation directions derived from SSSE and SSEF analysis agree poorly because of known limitations present in the latter. This work was carried out as part of the EU FP7 HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service) project (http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/).

Small amplitude quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) detected in soft X-ray emission are commonplace in many flares. To date, the underpinning processes resulting in the QPPs are unknown. In this paper, we attempt to constrain the prevalence of \textit{stationary} QPPs in the largest statistical study to date, including a study of the relationship of QPP periods to the properties of the flaring active region, flare ribbons, and CME affiliation. We build upon the work of \cite{inglis2016} and use a model comparison test to search for significant power in the Fourier spectra of lightcurves of the GOES 1--8~\AA\ channel. We analyze all X-, M- and C- class flares of the past solar cycle, a total of 5519 flares, and search for periodicity in the 6-300~s timescale range. Approximately 46\% of X-class, 29\% of M-class and 7\% of C-class flares show evidence of stationary QPPs, with periods that follow a log-normal distribution peaked at 20~s. The QPP periods were found to be independent of flare magnitude, however a positive correlation was found between QPP period and flare duration. No dependence of the QPP periods to the global active region properties was identified. A positive correlation was found between QPPs and ribbon properties including unsigned magnetic flux, ribbon area and ribbon separation distance. We found that both flares with and without an associated CME can host QPPs. Furthermore, we demonstrate that for X- and M- class flares, decay phase QPPs have statistically longer periods than impulsive phase QPPs., Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures, accepted in The Astrophysical Journal

NASA's WB-57 High Altitude Research Program provides a deployable, mobile, stratospheric platform for scientific research. Airborne platforms are of particular value for making coronal observations during total solar eclipses because of their ability both to follow the Moon's shadow and to get above most of the atmospheric airmass that can interfere with astronomical observations. We used the 2017 Aug 21 eclipse as a pathfinding mission for high-altitude airborne solar astronomy, using the existing high-speed visible-light and near-/mid-wave infrared imaging suite mounted in the WB-57 nose cone. In this paper, we describe the aircraft, the instrument, and the 2017 mission; operations and data acquisition; and preliminary analysis of data quality from the existing instrument suite. We describe benefits and technical limitations of this platform for solar and other astronomical observations. We present a preliminary analysis of the visible-light data quality and discuss the limiting factors that must be overcome with future instrumentation. We conclude with a discussion of lessons learned from this pathfinding mission and prospects for future research at upcoming eclipses, as well as an evaluation of the capabilities of the WB-57 platform for future solar astronomy and general astronomical observation., Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures; accepted for publication by the Astrophysical Journal

Stokes flow, discussed by G.G. Stokes in 1851, describes many microscopic biological flow phenomena, including cilia-driven transport and flagellar motility; the need to quantify and understand these flows has motivated decades of mathematical and computational research. Regularized stokeslet methods, which have been used and refined over the past twenty years, offer significant advantages in simplicity of implementation, with a recent modification based on nearest-neighbour interpolation providing significant improvements in efficiency and accuracy. Moreover this method can be implemented with the majority of the computation taking place through built-in linear algebra, entailing that state-of-the-art hardware and software developments in the latter, in particular multicore and GPU computing, can be exploited through minimal modifications ('passive parallelism') to existing MATLAB computer code. Hence, and with widely-available GPU hardware, significant improvements in the efficiency of the regularized stokeslet method can be obtained. The approach is demonstrated through computational experiments on three model biological flows: undulatory propulsion of multiple C. Elegans, simulation of progression and transport by multiple sperm in a geometrically confined region, and left-right symmetry breaking particle transport in the ventral node of the mouse embryo. In general an order-of-magnitude improvement in efficiency is observed. This development further widens the complexity of biological flow systems that are accessible without the need for extensive code development or specialist facilities., Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, submitted

A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multi-day periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods, and conversely, of correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event and event/no-event), and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day-1 remains high/low on day-2 even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line., Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

The Sun regularly produces large-scale eruptive events, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that can drive shock waves through the solar corona. Such shocks can result in electron acceleration and subsequent radio emission in the form of a type II radio burst. However, the early-phase evolution of shock properties and its relationship to type II burst evolution is still subject to investigation. Here we study the evolution of a CME-driven shock by comparing three commonly used methods of calculating the Alfv\'en Mach number ($M_A$), namely: shock geometry, a comparison of CME speed to a model of the coronal Alfv\'en speed, and the type II band-splitting method. We applied the three methods to the 2017 September 2 event, focusing on the shock wave observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) by the Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) on board GOES-16, in white-light by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board SOHO, and the type II radio burst observed by the Irish Low Frequency Array (I-LOFAR). We show that the three different methods of estimating shock $M_A$ yield consistent results and provide a means of relating shock property evolution to the type II emission duration. The type II radio emission emerged from near the nose of the CME when $M_A$ was in the range 1.4-2.4 at a heliocentric distance of $\sim$1.6 $R_\odot$. The emission ceased when the CME nose reached $\sim$2.4 $R_\odot$, despite an increasing Alfv\'en Mach number (up to 4). We suggest the radio emission cessation is due to the lack of quasi-perpendicular geometry at this altitude, which inhibits efficient electron acceleration and subsequent radio emission., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures

Spermatozoa self-propel by propagating bending waves along a predominantly active elastic flagellum. The organized structure of the "9 + 2" axoneme is lost in the most-distal few microns of the flagellum, and therefore this region is unlikely to have the ability to generate active bending; as such it has been largely neglected in biophysical studies. Through elastohydrodynamic modeling of human-like sperm we show that an inactive distal region confers significant advantages, both in propulsive thrust and swimming efficiency, when compared with a fully active flagellum of the same total length. The beneficial effect of the inactive end piece on these statistics can be as small as a few percent but can be above 430%. The optimal inactive length, between 2-18% of the total length, depends on both wavenumber and viscous-elastic ratio, and therefore is likely to vary in different species. Potential implications in evolutionary biology and clinical assessment are discussed., Comment: To Appear, Physical Review Fluids. 25 pages, 14 figures

The concept of internal anatomical asymmetry is familiar; usually in humans the heart is on the left and the liver is on the right, however how does the developing embryo know to produce this consistent laterality? Symmetry breaking initiates with left-right asymmetric cilia-driven fluid mechanics in a small fluid-filled structure called the ventral node in mice. However the question of what converts this flow into left-right asymmetric development remains unanswered. A leading hypotheses is that flow transports morphogen containing vesicles within the node, the absorption of which results in asymmetrical gene expression. To investigate how vesicle transport might result in the situs patterns observed in wildtype and mutant experiments, we extend the open source Stokes flow package, NEAREST, to consider the hydrodynamic and Brownian motion of particles in a mouse model with flow driven by one, two, and 112 beating cilia. Three models for morphogen-containing particle released are simulated to assess their compatibility with observed results in oligociliated and wildtype mouse embryos: uniformly random release, localised cilium stress induced release, and localised release from motile cilia themselves. Only the uniformly random release model appears consistent with the data, with neither localised-release model resulting in significant transport in the oligociliated embryo., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures

The Sun is an active star that can launch large eruptions of magnetised plasma into the heliosphere, called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These ejections can drive shocks that accelerate particles to high energies, often resulting in radio emission at low frequencies (<200 MHz). To date, the relationship between the expansion of CMEs, shocks and particle acceleration is not well understood, partly due to the lack of radio imaging at low frequencies during the onset of shock-producing CMEs. Here, we report multi-instrument radio, white-light and ultraviolet imaging of the second largest flare in Solar Cycle 24 (2008-present) and its associated fast CME (3038+/-288 km/s). We identify the location of a multitude of radio shock signatures, called herringbones, and find evidence for shock accelerated electron beams at multiple locations along the expanding CME. These observations support theories of non-uniform, rippled shock fronts driven by an expanding CME in the solar corona., Comment: 31 pages, 6 figures

Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al, 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to - for the first time - directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the "no skill" level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today's performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared., Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series

A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human "forecaster in the loop"; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies., Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

The dynamics of geometrically non-linear flexible filaments play an important role in a host of biological processes, from flagella-driven cell transport to the polymeric structure of complex fluids. Such problems have historically been computationally expensive due to numerical stiffness associated with the inextensibility constraint, as well as the often non-trivial boundary conditions on the governing high-order PDEs. Formulating the problem for the evolving shape of a filament via an integral equation in the tangent angle has recently been found to greatly alleviate this numerical stiffness. The contribution of the present manuscript is to enable the simulation of non-local interactions of multiple filaments in a computationally efficient manner using the method of regularized stokeslets within this framework. The proposed method is benchmarked against a non-local bead and link model, and recent code utilizing a local drag velocity law. Systems of multiple filaments (1) in a background fluid flow, (2) under a constant body force, and (3) undergoing active self-motility are modeled efficiently. Buckling instabilities are analyzed by examining the evolving filament curvature, as well as by coarse-graining the body frame tangent angles using a Chebyshev approximation for various choices of the relevant non-dimensional parameters. From these experiments, insight is gained into how filament-filament interactions can promote buckling, and further reveal the complex fluid dynamics resulting from arrays of these interacting fibers. By examining active moment-driven filaments, we investigate the speed of worm- and sperm-like swimmers for different governing parameters. The MATLAB(R) implementation is made available as an open-source library, enabling flexible extension for alternate discretizations and different surrounding flows., Comment: 37 pages, 17 figures

Solar flares often display pulsating and oscillatory signatures in the emission, known as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP). QPP are typically identified during the impulsive phase of flares, yet in some cases, their presence is detected late into the decay phase. Here, we report extensive fine structure QPP that are detected throughout the large X8.2 flare from 2017 September 10. Following the analysis of the thermal pulsations observed in the GOES/XRS and the 131 A channel of SDO/AIA, we find a pulsation period of ~65 s during the impulsive phase followed by lower amplitude QPP with a period of ~150 s in the decay phase, up to three hours after the peak of the flare. We find that during the time of the impulsive QPP, the soft X-ray source observed with RHESSI rapidly rises at a velocity of approximately 17 km/s following the plasmoid/coronal mass ejection (CME) eruption. We interpret these QPP in terms of a manifestation of the reconnection dynamics in the eruptive event. During the long-duration decay phase lasting several hours, extended downward contractions of collapsing loops/plasmoids that reach the top of the flare arcade are observed in EUV. We note that the existence of persistent QPP into the decay phase of this flare are most likely related to these features. The QPP during this phase are discussed in terms of MHD wave modes triggered in the post-flaring loops., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ - 13 pages, 9 figures, 1 accompanying movie found at -https://tinyurl.com/yykvd8pf

Context. Solar activity is often accompanied by solar radio emission, consisting of numerous types of solar radio bursts. At low frequencies (<100 MHz) radio bursts with short durations of milliseconds, such as solar S-bursts, have been identified. To date, their origin and many of their characteristics remain unclear. Aims. We report observations from the Ukrainian T-shaped Radio telescope, (UTR-2), and the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) which give us new insight into their nature. Methods. Over 3000 S-bursts were observed on 9 July 2013 at frequencies of 17.4-83.1 MHz during a period of low solar activity. Leading models of S-burst generation were tested by analysing the spectral properties of S-bursts and estimating coronal magnetic field strengths. Results. S-bursts were found to have short durations of 0.5-0.9 s. Multiple instruments were used to measure the dependence of drift rate on frequency which is represented by a power law with an index of 1.57. For the first time, we show a linear relation between instantaneous bandwidth and frequency over a wide frequency band. The flux calibration and high sensitivity of UTR-2 enabled measurements of their fluxes, which yielded 11+3 SFU. The source particle velocities of S-bursts were found to be ~0.07 c. S-burst source heights were found to range from 1.3 R_Sun to 2 R_Sun. Furthermore, a contemporary theoretical model of S-burst generation was used to conduct remote sensing of the coronal magnetic field at these heights which yielded values of 0.9-5.8 G. Within error, these values are comparable to those predicted by various relations between magnetic field strength and height in the corona., Comment: Added acknowledgement to the Solar team from the Institute of Radio Astronomy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Coronal holes (CHs) are regions of open magnetic flux which are the source of high speed solar wind (HSSW) streams. To date, it is not clear which aspects of CHs are of most influence on the properties of the solar wind as it expands through the Heliosphere. Here, we study the relationship between CH properties extracted from AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) images using CHIMERA (Coronal Hole Identification via Multi-thermal Emission Recognition Algorithm) and HSSW measurements from ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) at L1. For CH longitudinal widths $\Delta\theta_{CH}<$67$^{\circ}$, the peak SW velocity ($v_{max}$) is found to scale as $v_{max}~\approx~330.8~+~5.7~\Delta\theta_{CH}$~km~s$^{-1}$. For larger longitudinal widths ($\Delta\theta_{CH}>$67$^{\circ}$), $v_{max}$ is found to tend to a constant value ($\sim$710~km~s$^{-1}$). Furthermore, we find that the duration of HSSW streams ($\Delta t$) are directly related to the longitudinal width of CHs ($\Delta t_{SW}$~$\approx$~0.09$\Delta\theta_{CH}$) and that their longitudinal expansion factor is $f_{SW}~\approx 1.2~\pm 0.1$. We also derive an expression for the coronal hole flux-tube expansion factor, $f_{FT}$, which varies as $f_{SW} \gtrsim f_{FT} \gtrsim 0.8$. These results enable us to estimate the peak speeds and durations of HSSW streams at L1 using the properties of CHs identified in the solar corona., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters (APJL) on 25th November 2018

Constructing a power network model for geomagnetically induced current (GIC) calculations requires information on the DC resistances of elements within a network. This information is often not known, and power network models are simplified as a result, with assumptions used for network element resistances. Ireland's relatively small, isolated network presents an opportunity to model a complete power network in detail, using as much real-world information as possible. A complete model of the Irish 400, 275, 220 and 110 kV network was made for GIC calculations, with detailed information on the number, type and DC resistances of transformers. The measured grounding resistances at a number of substations were also included in the model, which represents a considerable improvement on previous models of the Irish power network for GIC calculations. Sensitivity tests were performed to show how calculated GIC amplitudes are affected by different aspects of the model. These tests investigated: (1) How the orientation of a uniform electric field affects GICs. (2) The effect of including/omitting lower-voltage elements of the power network. (3) How the substation grounding resistances assumptions affected GIC values. It was found that changing the grounding resistance value had a considerable effect on calculated GICs at some substations, and no discernible effect at others. Finally, five recent geomagnetic storm events were simulated in the network. It was found that heavy rainfall prior to the 26-28 August 2015 geomagnetic storm event may have had a measurable impact on measured GIC amplitudes at a 400/220 kV transformer ground., Comment: 13 pages

Choosing a suitable model and determining its associated parameters from fitting to experimental data is fundamental for many problems in biomechanics. Models of shear-thinning complex fluids, dating from the work of Bird, Carreau, Cross and Yasuda, have been applied in highly-cited computational studies of heamodynamics for several decades. In this manuscript we revisit these models, first to highlight a degree of uncertainty in the naming conventions in the literature, but more importantly to address the problem of inferring model parameters by fitting rheology experiments. By refitting published data, and also by simulation, we find large, flat regions in likelihood surfaces that yield families of parameter sets which fit the data equally well. Despite having almost indistinguishable fits to experimental data these varying parameter sets can predict very different flow profiles, and as such these parameters cannot be used to draw conclusions about physical properties of the fluids, such as zero-shear viscosity or relaxation time of the fluid, or indeed flow behaviours. We verify that these features are not a consequence of the experimental data sets through simulations; by sampling points from the rheological models and adding a small amount of noise we create a synthetic data set which reveals that the problem of parameter identifiability is intrinsic to these models., Comment: 19 pages, 9 colour figures

Solar active regions (ARs) that produce major flares typically exhibit strong plasma shear flows around photospheric magnetic polarity inversion lines (MPILs). It is therefore important to quantitatively measure such photospheric shear flows in ARs for a better understanding of their relation to flare occurrence. Photospheric flow fields were determined by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method to a large data set of 2,548 co-aligned pairs of AR vector magnetograms with 12-min separation over the period 2012-2016. From each AR flow-field map, three shear-flow parameters were derived corresponding to the mean (), maximum (S_max) and integral (S_sum) shear-flow speeds along strong-gradient, strong-field MPIL segments. We calculated flaring rates within 24 hr as a function of each shear-flow parameter, and also investigated the relation between the parameters and the waiting time ({\tau}) until the next major flare (class M1.0 or above) after the parameter observation. In general, it is found that the larger S_sum an AR has, the more likely it is for the AR to produce flares within 24 hr. It is also found that among ARs which produce major flares, if one has a larger value of S_sum then {\tau} generally gets shorter. These results suggest that large ARs with widespread and/or strong shear flows along MPILs tend to not only be more flare productive, but also produce major flares within 24 hr or less., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physics