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This paper applies complex networks techniques to the study of world trade, with a focus on imperfect competition and development literature. The analysis uses a database of 4657 HS products and 183 countries to measure world market concentration by companies’ country of origin from 2007 to 2017. The empirical findings corroborate some of structuralist and development economists’ claims, namely: countries with high-income per capita focus on producing and exporting manufactured and complex goods in more concentrated markets, whereas countries with low-income per capita specialize in producing and exporting non-complex commodities in less concentrated markets

The aim of the present article is to further develop the line of research initiated by Oreiro et al. (2019) by expanding the database used to calculate the EQI and the EQG, but also to control the effects of variables other than the EQG, such as the amount of capital per worker, over the PCIG and to assess the impact of the determinants of the EQG, considering both price and non-price factors. Following Tregenna and Andreoni (2020), the EQI will be redefined as the ratio between the share of the workforce in the sectors of high technological intensity with respect to the share of the workforce in the sectors of medium and low technological intensity. The EQG will then be used as an independent variable to explain the behavior of the PCIG of a sample of 47 developing countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia from 2001 to 2014. JEL codes: C51, E24, O11, PSL Quarterly Review, Vol. 75 No. 301 (2022): June

We analyze the determinants of the deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1998 and 2017. This is a typical example of ‘premature deindustrialization’ in the sense that the major reason for the fall in the manufacturing share has not been the increase in per-capita income but rather real exchange rate overvaluation. In the Brazilian case, real exchange rate overvaluation results both from an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, and an increase in the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate, the “industrial equilibrium exchange rate” of the new developmentalist literature. The elimination of the real exchange rate overvaluation requires not only the adoption of a macroeconomic policy regime in which some kind of real exchange rate targeting is adopted, but also industrial policies designed for increasing the economic complexity of the Brazilian economy and, hence, to reduce the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate. JEL codes: O11, O14, O24, PSL Quarterly Review, V. 73, N. 295 (2020): December

O objetivo principal desse trabalho é a aplicação de técnicas de redes complexas para o estudo do comércio mundial, com foco específico na investigação das ideias cepalinas e estruturalistas. Um objetivo secundário do trabalho é ilustrar o potencial de utilização das abordagens da nova ciência das redes complexas em economia, no que vem sendo mais recentemente conhecido como uma agenda de pesquisa de econofísica. Trabalhamos com um banco de dados com 4898 produtos do sistema HS de 6 dígitos e 236 países Os resultados empíricos baseados em metodologias computacionais para análise das redes aqui reportados apontam na direção do que diziam os economistas estruturalistas; países de renda per capita elevada se concentram na produção e exportação de bens manufaturados e complexos em mercados mais concentrados, países de renda per capita baixa se concentram na produção e exportação de commodities não complexas. The main purpose of this paper is to apply complex network techniques to the study of world trade, with a specific focus on the investigation of structuralist ideas. A secondary objective is to illustrate the potentialities of the use of the new science of complex networks in economics, in what has been recently referred to as an econophysics research agenda. We work with a databse with 4898 and 6 digit HS system products and 236 countries. The empirical results based on network analysis and computational methods reported here point in the direction of what structuralists used to argue; countries with higher income per capita concentrate in producing and exporting manufactured and complex goods at more concentrated markets; countries with lower income per capita specialize in producing and exporting non-complex commodities.

RESUMO Este artigo analisa a retórica de Douglass North. Após uma breve discussão sobre a relevância dos estudos retóricos para fins metodológicos, investigamos o discurso do autor em Instituições, Mudança Institucional e Desempenho Econômico (1990) em duas etapas. A primeira lida com a maneira pela qual North fornece sua teoria - o foco principal aqui é na maneira como ele “fala” com seu público. A segunda mostra o uso do autor de algumas das regras retóricas clássicas propostas por Arida (1983). Na última seção, discutimos alguns aspectos do trabalho de North, considerando outros estudos com a mesma tarefa no Brasil. ABSTRACT This paper analyses the rhetoric of Douglass North. After a brief discussion about the relevance of rhetorical studies for methodological purposes, we investigate the author’s speech in Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (1990) in two stages. The first deals with the way in which North delivers his theory - the main focus here is in the way he “talks” to his audience. The second shows the author’s use of some of the classical rhetorical rules as proposed by Arida (1983). In the last section we discuss some aspects of North’s work considering other studies with the same task in Brazil.

Pesquisas sobre processos de catching-up, leapfrogging e armadilha da renda média destacam a necessidade de as economias em desenvolvimento transformarem seus sistemas produtivos, por meio da transição de ênfase na oferta de produtos simples para bens e serviços complexos e de alto valor agregado. No entanto, a razão pela qual apenas poucos países conseguiram sofisticar suas estruturas produtivas permanece assunto de acalorados debates no campo da economia do desenvolvimento. Com o objetivo de contribuir para esta discussão e construir pontes entre diferentes abordagens sobre desenvolvimento econômico, combinamos novos métodos quantitativos de pesquisas em complexidade econômica com conhecimento qualitativo sobre sofisticação produtiva. Usamos métodos de análise de complexidade econômica para estudar as estruturas produtivas de 116 países. Isso nos permite apresentar e discutir a curva S de complexidade econômica. Em seguida, utilizamos resultados empíricos para discutir insights de política econômica, obtidos a partir da análise da trajetória de países que ascenderam a curva: Coreia do Sul, Irlanda, Israel e Singapura. Research on catching-up and leapfrogging processes and the middle-income trap highlight the challenge for developing economies to transform their productive systems geared towards simple products to the production of complex and higher value-added goods and services. Yet, the reasons why only a few countries have managed to sophisticate their productive structure is still part of heated debates in the field of development economics. To contribute to this discussion, and to build bridges between different development approaches, we combine new quantitative methods from economic complexity research with qualitative knowledge on the process of structural change. We use methods from economic complexity research to study the productive structures of 116 countries. This allows us to present and discuss the S-complexity curve of development. Next, we use these empirical findings to discuss insights on economic policy, through the analysis of the trajectory of countries that successfully climbed this curve: Ireland, Israel, Singapore, and South Korea.

A estratificação social é determinada não só por renda, nível educacional, raça e gênero, mas, também, pelas características do emprego de cada pessoa e pela posição que ocupa na estrutura setorial. Partindo de um conjunto de dados de 76.6 milhões de trabalhadores brasileiros e de métodos da ciência de redes, mapeamos o Espaço Setorial-Ocupacional Brasileiro (“Brazilian Industry-Occupation Space” – BIOS). O BIOS mede em que grau 600 ocupações co-aparecem em 585 setores, resultando em uma rede complexa que demonstra como as comunidades setoriais-ocupacionais fornecem informações importantes sobre a segmentação em rede da sociedade. Demonstramos que gênero, raça, nível educacional e renda se concentram de forma desigual na estrutura centroperiferia do BIOS. Identificamos 28 comunidades setoriais-ocupacionais na estrutura em rede do BIOS e relatamos sua contribuição para a desigualdade de renda total no Brasil. Finalmente, quantificamos a pobreza relativa interna e externa dessas comunidades. Em suma, o BIOS revela como a associação de setores e ocupações ajuda a mapear as classes sociais e entender a desigualdade no Brasil.

Social stratification is determined not only by income, education, race, and gender, but also by an individual's job characteristics and their position in the industrial structure. Utilizing a dataset of 76.6 million Brazilian workers and methods from network science, we map the Brazilian Industry- Occupation Space (BIOS). The BIOS measures the extent to which 600 occupations co-appear in 585 industries, resulting in a complex network that shows how industrial-occupational communities provide important information on the network segmentation of society. Gender, race, education, and income are concentrated unevenly across the core-periphery structure of the BIOS. Moreover, we identify 28 industrial occupational communities from the BIOS network structure and report their contribution to total income inequality in Brazil. Finally, we quantify the relative poverty within these communities. In sum, the BIOS reveals how the coupling of industries and occupations contributes to mapping social stratification.

Social stratification is determined not only by income, education, race, and gender, but also by an individual’s job characteristics and their position in the industrial structure. Utilizing a dataset of 76.6 million Brazilian workers and methods from network science, we map the Brazilian Industry-Occupation Space (BIOS). The BIOS measures the extent to which 600 occupations co-appear in 585 industries, resulting in a complex network that shows how industrial-occupational communities provide important information on the network segmentation of society. Gender, race, education, and income are concentrated unevenly across the core-periphery structure of the BIOS. Moreover, we identify 28 industrial occupational communities from the BIOS network structure and report their contribution to total income inequality in Brazil. Finally, we quantify the relative poverty within these communities. In sum, the BIOS reveals how the coupling of industries and occupations contributes to mapping social stratification.

This paper shows that the Dutch disease can be more formally characterised as low economic complexity using ECI-type indicators; there is a solid and robust inverse relationship between exports concentrating on natural resources and economic complexity as measured by complexity indicators for a database of 122 countries from 1963 to 2013. In a large majority of cases, oil answers for shares in excess of 50% of exports. In addition to empirical panel analysis, we address case studies concerned with Indonesia and Nigeria and introduce a brief review of the theoretical literature on the topic. Indonesia is considered in the literature as a good example in avoiding the negative effects of the Dutch disease, whereas Nigeria is taken as a bad example in terms of institutions and policies adopted during the seventies and eighties. The empirical results show that complexity analysis and Big Data may offer significant contributions to the still-current debate surrounding the Dutch disease.

A wide range of economic development theoreticians have discussed the manufacturing sector’s properties as an engine for economic growth. More recently, the sophisticated services sector began to share similar characteristics with the industrial sector as a driver for economic growth, particularly as a locus of technological innovation. This paper considers the symbiotic relationship between these two sectors, and assesses their importance in the technological development of countries. More precisely, this study uses economic complexity analysis and input-output matrices to assess the importance of employment creation in advanced sectors for development of countries. Results show that in the long-run, economic development depends on the effort and the ability of countries to generate employment in advanced sectors.

The main purpose of this paper is to apply big-data and scale-free complex network techniques to the study of world trade, with a specific focus on the investigation of ECLA and structuralist ideas. A secondary objective is to illustrate the potentialities of the use of the new science of complex networks in economics, in what has been recently referred to as an econophysics research agenda. We work with a trade network of 101 countries and 762 products (SITC-4) which generated 1,756,224 trade links in 2013. The empirical results based on network analysis and computational methods reported here point in the direction of what ECLA economists used to argue; countries with higher income per capita concentrate in producing and exporting manufactured and complex goods at the center of the trade network; countries with lower income per capita specialize in producing and exporting non-complex commodities at the network’s periphery.

O trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar o conceito de abdução. Um conceito ignorado e pouco usado pela maioria dos economistas. Um conceito utilizado intuitivamente pela macroeconomia keynesiana, economia clássica e microeconomia marshalliana, dado o viés mais histórico-indutivo dessas matrizes. Um conceito fundamental na etapa de criação das teorias que depois poderão ser organizadas (dedução) e testadas empiricamente (indução controlada). O trabalho se inspira na abordagem histórica e a necessidade de se adotar um postura 'histórico-dedutiva' para se fazer ciência em economia como defendida por Bresser-Pereira. Na seção 2 apresentamos a noção de abordagem histórica de Bresser-Pereira. Na seção 3 tratamos da definição formal do conceito de abdução. A seção 4 discute brevemente as bases de uma epistemologia abdutiva. A última seção conclui o trabalho.

Structuralist development macroeconomics. This paper presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics (the tendencies to the overvaluation of the exchange rate and the tendency of wages to grow below productivity, the critique of growth with foreign savings, and a new model of the Dutch disease) that complement and actualize the thought of the Latin-American structuralist school that developed around ECLAC from the late 1940s to the 1960s. On the other hand, it suggests that a new national development strategy based on the experience of fast growing Asian countries is emerging; and argues that only the countries that adopt such strategy based on growth with domestic savings, fiscal and foreign trade responsibility and a competitive exchange rate will be able to catch up.

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

The objective of this paper is to bring elements from the philosophical movement of hermeneutics and pragmatism to the discussion on methodology in economics, with a specific concern on the theory of truth. Our aim is to present the concept of the hermeneutic space, developed by the philosopher Richard Rorty, as a rational justification for pluralism in economics. We consider the hermeneutic space an interesting concept which should allow us to overcome the void left by the incapacity of epistemological theories to explain the evolution of sciences. It defends the idea that our culture, values and ways of interpreting things are what build the sciences, not any closed epistemological method. In this sense, pluralism is nothing more than letting the hermeneutic space work, without epistemological barriers, and understanding that this is desirable for the future development of economics as a science. This approach differs from all other methodological justifications for pluralism because it does not rely on any epistemological method, but assumes that the hermeneutic space can entirely fulfill the gap created by them

This paper provides theoretical and empirical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and domestic savings. We show from a theoretical perspective how a competitive exchange rate may stimulate domestic savings by avoiding consumption booms based on currency overvaluation and by increasing profits in the tradable sector. Our baseline model shows from a short run perspective how a competitive exchange rate may stimulate investment, exports, profits and thus domestic savings. We also present econometric evidence for the Brazilian case which shows a robust connection between real exchange rates and domestic savings as a share of GDP. The econometric analysis carried out for the Brazilian economy between indicates that there is a stable relationship between long-term exchange rate and domestic savings, and depreciation on the real exchange rate have positive and significant impact on domestic savings in this period. Furthermore, the results confirm that foreign savings has a degree of displacement in domestic savings

O objetivo dos Estudos em Finanças do Mestrado Profissionalizante em Economia é promover os working papers desenvolvidos pelos alunos e professores do curso, como trabalhos finais das disciplinas Investimentos e Econometria, para que a discussão dos temas pesquisados seja ampliada na Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas, comunidade acadêmica, e mercado financeiro. Nesta segunda edição os working papers abordam diversas questões associadas ao mercado financeiro e a academia, utilizando estudos econométricos que contaram com o apoio do Prof. Claudio Lucinda. Dentre os assuntos tocados neste livro temos diversas abordagens sobre a volatilidade dos mercados, incluindo o índice VIX, o comportamento do investidor individual, os preços de imóveis rurais, o mercado de taxas de juros, dentre outros

We discuss in this paper the evolution of exchange rate policy in Chile since the seventies, with special attention to overvaluation and undervaluation cycles. Following a recent literature that argues in favor of competitive currencies as part of a development strategy, we argue that the Chilean exchange rate policy in the years that go from 1984 until 1999 were very important to its growth results. Chile even managed to go through the nineties without a major external crisis, especially when compared to its Latin American neighbors. We argue here that the exchange rate crawling band adopted in the middle eighties and nineties was important for its growth strategy.

The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy that one of its authors has been doing in recent years. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciated exchange rates, artificially increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country gets indebted not to invest and grow but to consume. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected profit rate and the long term interest rate, the marginal propensity to consume will get down enough so that the additional income originated from foreign capital flows will be used for investment rather than for consumption. In this special case, the rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings tend to be small and foreign savings will contribute positively to growth.

The work addresses the current discussion in Brazil of possible negative effects of exchange rate overvaluation on growth and its adjustment dynamics in the short and long run. The paper presents econometric evidence of possible exchange rate misalignments in Brazil since 1994. Using monthly data from January 1995 until September 2006 we study real exchange rate levels and equilibrium dynamics Filiando-se a discussão sobre os efeitos da apreciação cambial no país, o trabalho procura contribuir para o debate acerca da posição correta da taxa de câmbio e suas possíveis dinâmicas de ajustamento no curto e longo prazo. Neste sentido, apresenta evidências econométricas para possíveis desalinhamentos do câmbio real no Brasil desde 1994. A partir de uma base de dados mensais que abarca o período de janeiro de 1995 até setembro de 2006, realiza-se uma análise econométrica para estudar o comportamento do câmbio real e de equilíbrio no Brasil no período recente

Partindo do debate atual sobre retórica em economia, o trabalho tem por objetivo trazer elementos da corrente filosófica do pragmatismo para a discussão metodológica entre economistas, particularmente no que diz respeito à teoria da verdade e suas implicações epistemológicas. Após apresentar as contribuições dos pioneiros da filosofia pragmatista, William James, John Dewey e Charles Sanders Peirce, e discutir aspectos da obra de Willard Quine e Richard Rorty, procura identificar influências dessa corrente filosófica em importantes economistas tais como John M. Keynes, Milton Friedman e Thorstein Veblen. Por fim conclui com algumas reflexões possivelmente úteis para a prática da ciência econômica. This paper brings elements from the pragmatic philosophy to the debate on methodology in economics, with a specific concern on the theory of truth and its connection with epistemology. After briefly discussing the contributions of William James, John Dewey, Charles Sanders Peirce and the works of Willard Quine and Richard Rorty in this area, we point out to some of the influences that this school of thought may have had on the work of important economists such as John M. Keynes, Milton Friedman and Thorstein Veblen. We then conclude with some reflections that may be useful for research made by economists.

Some authors argue in favor of a real exchange rate targeting strategy for developing countries in what could be called a development approach to exchange rates. By stimulating the export sector, a relatively undervalued currency may help to avert financial crises and put the economy in a more sustained developmental path. Exchange rate management may also have strong impacts on capital accumulation as it determines paths of consumption, savings and investment via real wage determination. An overvalued currency could cause savings displacement. Exchange rate policy is also important to avoid Dutch Disease and promote the development of a non traditional tradeable sector, which is usually very dynamic and contributes to innovations and productivity increases. Numerous studies have argued that most balance of payments crises are related to overvalued or misaligned currencies. Following this so-called development approach, the objective of the work is to study the impacts of real exchange rate levels on development. The main hypothesis to be analyzed is that a competitive currency contributes to per capita income growth. Overvalued currencies would be an important obstacle to development whereas undervalued currencies would stimulate it. Alguns autores têm chamado a atenção para a importância da administração cambial nos processos de desenvolvimento econômico no que vem sendo conhecido como um ¿development approach¿ para taxas de câmbio. O nível do câmbio real teria forte impacto na acumulação de capital na medida em que afetaria as trajetórias de consumo, investimento e poupança agregados de uma economia via definição do nível do salário real. O setor de bens comercializáveis não tradicional estimulado por um câmbio competitivo destacar-se-ia pelo seu dinamismo e potencial de inovações tecnológicas, contribuindo para aumentos de produtividade necessários ao processo de desenvolvimento econômico. Estímulos ao setor de exportações contribuiriam também para a redução da vulnerabilidade a crises externas. Inúmeros estudos têm destacado a ocorrência de crises no balanço de pagamentos por problemas de sobrevalorização cambial ou desalinhamento. Com o objetivo de contribuir para essa discussão, o trabalho a ser apresentado trata das relações existentes entre nível do câmbio real e o processo de desenvolvimento econômico. Tem como objetivo mais específico analisar a hipótese de que haveria uma relação negativa entre nível do câmbio real e taxas de crescimento per capita. Câmbios reais relativamente desvalorizados seriam benéficos para processos de desenvolvimento econômico enquanto que níveis excessivos de apreciação cambial seriam nocivos.

The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciate exchange rates, increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country will get indebted to consume, not to invest and grow. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected rate of profit and the long term interest rate, additional income originated by foreign capital flows will be used for investment and this trade-off between foreign savings and domestic savings reduction will not occur

The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciate exchange rates, increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country will get indebted to consume, not to invest and grow. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected rate of profit and the long term interest rate, additional income originated by foreign capital flows will be used for investment and this trade-off between foreign savings and domestic savings reduction will not occur O presente artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres em capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiados por empréstimos ou investimentos diretos externos, não necessariamente farão aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou, mesmo, terão pouco impacto sobre ela, de forma que os déficits em conta serão associados a taxas de câmbio apreciadas, altos salários e ordenados reais e altos níveis de consumo. Conseqüentemente, o país se endividará para consumir, e não para investir e crescer. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimulados por uma diferença considerável entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros a longo prazo, o lucro adicional produzido pelo fluxo de capital estrangeiro será usado para investimento, e este trade-off entre a redução da poupança externa e interna não ocorrerá

O trabalho tem por objetivo contribuir para a análise do método de trabalho em economia que Bresser-Pereira propõe. Ressalta a partir da leitura de seus trabalhos sobre metodologia duas das principais características de seu método de pesquisa: a noção de razoabilidade científica e a importância da abordagem histórica. Ademais, procura destacar o veio filosófico do pragmatismo que parece bastante pertinente para a análise do pensamento neo-estruturalista do autor, especialmente no que diz respeito à perspectiva de resolução de problemas encontrada em seus trabalhos. Para ficar aqui em dois registros: a teoria da inflação inercial e a interpretação da crise do Estado brasileiro. Ao perceber problemas novos e específicos da realidade brasileira, Bresser Pereira procurou teorizar de modo a propor soluções criativas para questões distintas das encontradas nos países desenvolvidos e, portanto, já amplamente tratadas pela teoria econômica.

This paper brings elements from the pragmatic philosophy to the debate on methodology in economics, with a specific concern on the theory of truth and its connection with epistemology. After briefly discussing the contributions of William James, John Dewey, Charles S. Peirce and the works of W. Quine and Richard Rorty in this area, we point out to some of the influences that this school of thought that may have had on the work of important economists such as J. M. Keynes, M. Friedman and T. Veblen. We then conclude with some reflections on this matter that may be useful for research made by economists. O trabalho tem por objetivo trazer elementos da corrente filosófica do pragmatismo para a discussão metodológica em economia, particularmente no que diz respeito a teoria da verdade e suas implicações para o debate epistemológico. Após apresentar as contribuições dos pioneiros do pragmatismo William James, John Dewey e Charles S. Peirce e discutir aspectos da obra de W. Quine e Richard Rorty, procuramos identificar influências dessa corrente filosófica em importantes economistas tais como J. M. Keynes, M. Friedman e T. Veblen. Por fim concluímos com algumas reflexões possivelmente úteis para a prática da ciência econômica.