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Prior research based on Swedish data suggests that collective optimism, as measured by monthly incidence of suicides, correlates inversely with selection in utero against male twins in a population. We test this finding in the US, which reports the highest suicide rate of all high-income countries, and examine whether monthly changes in overall suicides precede changes in the ratio of male twin to male singleton live births. Consistent with prior work, we also examine as a key independent variable, suicides among women aged 15−49 years. We retrieved monthly data on suicides and the ratio of male twin to singleton live births from CDC WONDER, 2003 to 2019, and applied Box-Jenkins iterative time-series routines to detect and remove autocorrelation from both series. Results indicate that a 1% increase in monthly change in overall suicides precedes a 0.005 unit decline in male twin live births ratio 6 months later (coefficient = −.005, p value =.004). Results remain robust to use of suicides among reproductive-aged women as the independent variable (coefficient = −.0012, p value =.014). Our study lends external validity to prior research and supports the notion that a decline in collective optimism corresponds with greater selection in utero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Previous research suggests that job loss in a household during pregnancy may perturb fetal growth. However, this work often cannot rule out unmeasured confounding due to selection into job loss. Recent work using data on exogenous job loss (due to a plant closure) finds that a father's unexpected job loss during his spouse's pregnancy increases the risk of a low weight birth. Using a unique set of linked registries in Denmark, we build on this work and examine whether associations between a father's unexpected job loss and low birthweight differ by trimester of in utero exposure. We additionally examine trimester-specific associations of job loss with small-for-gestational-age, a proxy for restricted fetal growth, which may cause low birthweight.Methods: We apply a sibling control design to over 1.4 million live births in Denmark, 1980 to 2017, to examine whether this plausibly exogenous form of job loss corresponds with increased risk of low weight or small-for-gestational-age births, depending on the timing of displacement in the first, second, or third trimester.Results: Results indicate an elevated risk of low birthweight (OR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.62) and small-for-gestational-age (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) among gestations exposed to job loss in the second trimester of pregnancy. Sensitivity analyses using continuous outcome measures (e.g., birthweight in grams, birthweight for gestational age percentile) and maternal fixed effects analyses produce substantively similar inference.Conclusions: Findings support the notion that unexpected job loss may affect fetal growth and that the second trimester in particular appears sensitive to this external stressor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research documents social and economic antecedents of adverse birth outcomes, which may include involuntary job loss. Previous work on job loss and adverse birth outcomes, however, lacks high-quality individual data on, and variation in, plausibly exogenous job loss during pregnancy and therefore cannot rule out strong confounding.Methods: We analysed unique linked registries in Denmark, from 1980 to 2017, to examine whether a father's involuntary job loss during his spouse's pregnancy increases the risk of a low-weight (i.e. <2500 grams) and/or preterm (i.e. <37 weeks of gestational age) birth. We applied a matched-sibling design to 743 574 sibling pairs.Results: Results indicate an increased risk of a low-weight birth among infants exposed in utero to fathers' unexpected job loss [odds ratio (OR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.75]. Sex-specific analyses show that this result holds for males (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.53) but not females (OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.80, 1.91). We find no relation with preterm birth.Conclusions: Findings support the inference that a father's unexpected job loss adversely affects the course of pregnancy, especially among males exposed in utero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Some scholars posit that attempts to avert stillbirth among extremely preterm gestations may result in a live birth but an early neonatal death. The literature, however, reports no empirical test of this potential form of left truncation. We examine whether annual cohorts delivered at extremely preterm gestational ages show an inverse correlation between their incidence of stillbirth and early neonatal death.Methods: We retrieved live birth and infant death information from the California Linked Birth and Infant Death Cohort Files for years 1989 to 2015. We defined the extremely preterm period as delivery from 22 to < 28 weeks of gestation and early neonatal death as infant death at less than 7 days of life. We calculated proportions of stillbirth and early neonatal death separately by cohort year, race/ethnicity, and sex. Our correlational analysis controlled for well-documented declines in neonatal mortality over time.Results: California reported 89,276 extremely preterm deliveries (live births and stillbirths) to Hispanic, non-Hispanic (NH) Black, and NH white mothers from 1989 to 2015. Findings indicate an inverse correlation between stillbirth and early neonatal death in the same cohort year (coefficient: -0.27, 95% CI of - 0.11; - 0.42). Results remain robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests.Conclusions: Findings support the notion that cohorts with an elevated risk of stillbirth also show a reduced risk of early neonatal death among extremely preterm deliveries. Results add to the evidence base that selection in utero may influence the survival characteristics of live-born cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA.Methods: We constructed an epidemiologic "needs-based" model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns.Results: When projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030.Conclusions: Based on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined whether a housing voucher intervention influenced adolescent risky sexual behavior (RSB) across 15 years in the Moving to Opportunity Study. Low-income families in public housing that resided in 5 cities were randomized to one of three treatment groups: a housing voucher to move to low-poverty neighborhoods (i.e., < 10% poverty rate), a Sect. 8 voucher but no housing relocation counseling, or a control group that could remain in public housing. Youth and their caregivers completed baseline surveys, as well as two uniform follow-ups: interim (2001–2002; 4–7 years after baseline) and final (2008–2010; 10–15 years after baseline). Approximately 4,600 adolescents (50.5% female) aged 13–20 years participated at the final timepoint. Adolescents reported on their RSB, including condom use, other contraceptive use, early sexual initiation (< 15 years old), and 2+ sexual partners in the past year. We modeled each indicator separately and as part of a composite index. We tested baseline health vulnerabilities as potential effect modifiers. The low-poverty voucher group and the Sect. 8 voucher group were combined due to homogeneity of their effects. Applying intent-to-treat (ITT) regression analyses, we found no significant main effects of voucher receipt (vs. control) on any RSB. However, we found protective effects of voucher receipt on RSB among youth with health problems that limited activity, and youth < 7 at baseline but adverse effects among females, youth > 7 at baseline, and youth who were suspended/expelled from school. Results highlight the importance of understanding how housing interventions differentially influence adolescent health and behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global urbanization has sparked substantial environmental, public health, and social science research on the importance of conserving and propagating natural environments. A large subset of this work focuses on the benefits of green space for health. An often-overlooked methodological concern when examining relations between green space and health, however, involves residential self-selection. The selective movement of individuals into greener neighborhoods on the basis of preexisting health and correlated social factors may bias associations, particularly in cross-sectional studies, which predominate existing green space/health research. To quantify the extent of residential self-selection bias, this study used a longitudinal sibling comparison design with repeated individual and neighborhood measures to estimate associations between pre-move health factors, including maternal body mass index (BMI) and infant birthweight, and post-move neighborhood green space in a residentially mobile sample of mothers in California, 2007 to 2015 (n = 288,333). Results show that better health before moving predicted higher levels of neighborhood green space after moving, providing evidence of health selection. Findings also indicate some support for differential health selection into neighborhood green space by race/ethnicity, including that evidence of selection emerges for white and Hispanic, but not Black, mothers. However, weak relations between pre-move individual factors and post-move neighborhood green space across analyses suggest that potential bias due to residential self-selection appears relatively minimal in a large, diverse, and highly mobile sample of families in California. Findings support calls to increase green space in historically marginalized neighborhoods as a means to promote environmental and health equity. • Greenspace-health research relies on cross-sectional designs susceptible to bias. • Study examines role of pre-move health on post-move greenspace among mothers. • Finds evidence of health selection into greenspace, stronger for White mothers. • Weak associations indicate minimal bias due to health selection in study population. • Suggest contextual and selection effects involved in greenspace-health associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial research documents health consequences of neighborhood disadvantage. Patterns of residential mobility that differ by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) may sort non-Hispanic (NH) Black and low-SES families into disadvantaged neighborhoods. In this study, we leverage a sibling-linked dataset to track residential mobility among birthing persons between pregnancies and investigate baseline characteristics associated with downward mobility, including race/ethnicity, SES, and pre-existing health conditions. We used a probabilistic linkage strategy to identify births to the same person between 2007 and 2015 (n = 624,222) and categorized downward residential mobility by quartile-level increases in neighborhood disadvantage. We defined strong downward mobility as a move from a neighborhood with very low (quartile 1) to very high (quartile 4) disadvantage and estimated the logit (i.e., log-odds) of strong downward mobility as a function of racial/ethnic, sociodemographic, and health characteristics of the birthing person and their first birth. We further explored the role of neighborhood housing affordability by examining changes in affordability from first to second birth by race/ethnicity. NH Black birthing persons show an over three-fold increased odds of strong downward mobility relative to NH white birthing persons (OR = 3.34, CI: 2.91, 3.84). To a lesser extent, Hispanic race/ethnicity, WIC receipt, low educational attainment, obesity, and infant preterm birth (PTB) also predict strong downward mobility. Examination of changes in neighborhood affordability indicate that over half of NH Black birthing persons move to a more affordable neighborhood, compared to less than a quarter of NH white birthing persons, before the birth of their second child. Results remain consistent across outcomes, measures of neighborhood SES, and modified log-Poisson models. We find an elevated risk of strong downward mobility among NH Black and low-SES birthing persons. Future research may identify other factors (e.g., housing affordability) that generate downward residential mobility to identify interventions that promote neighborhood equity. • Longitudinal study of residential mobility among more than 600,000 birthing persons. • Black birthing persons show an elevated risk of downward mobility between births. • Neighborhood affordability may generate different racial-ethnic mobility patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous work reports an inverse association between neighborhood greenness and obesity. Limitations of this work, which relies largely on cross-sectional data, include that studies often lack control for unmeasured genetic and sociodemographic factors that may confound associations, and cannot disentangle temporal order between neighborhood greenness and obesity. We move beyond a cross-sectional approach and leverage a longitudinal sibling-linked dataset with health, residential, and demographic information on women with two births in California between 2007 and 2015 (N = 552,929). We used a sibling comparison design to control for unmeasured stable characteristics of women and tested whether a positive change in neighborhood greenness (i.e., "upward green mobility") precedes a reduction in obesity risk. Models also adjusted for baseline obesity risk and time-varying individual- and neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. As hypothesized, we find that upward green mobility varies inversely with the odds of obesity. Results indicate that small decreases in neighborhood greenness may also show protective associations with obesity risk. Our findings, if replicated, suggest that changing levels (particularly increases) of greenness in the residential environment may combat the rise of obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the importance of nature exposure in the modern era and the potential health benefits associated with it. It acknowledges the shift from a natural, outdoor lifestyle to one dominated by urban environments, which has limited access to nature, particularly for certain socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups. The article emphasizes the negative consequences of reduced nature exposure on mental and physical health. It introduces two new technologies, NatureScoreTM and NatureDoseTM, which aim to quantify and promote nature exposure for health promotion purposes. NatureScoreTM is a dataset and tool that estimates the amount and quality of nature at any location, while NatureDoseTM is a mobile app that tracks an individual's daily or weekly exposure to nature. These technologies provide convenient and accurate ways to measure nature exposure and may help researchers understand the benefits of nature exposure and promote its use for health promotion. NatureDoseTM is a smartphone app that passively monitors a person's time spent indoors, outdoors, and outdoors in nature. The app uses the smartphone's sensors, geolocation, and a dataset called NatureScoreTM to determine the user's location and the amount of nature within a 1-km buffer. It assigns full nature exposure time credit when a user is outdoors in a designated natural area, and partial credit when they are outdoors but not in a natural area. The app also allows users to set a weekly goal for time spent outdoors in nature and tracks their progress. It has potential uses for clinicians, researchers, and policymakers, such as setting [Extracted from the article]

Objectives: Research on historical populations in Europe finds that infectious disease epidemics appear to induce predictable cycles in age‐specific mortality. We know little, however, about whether such cycles also occurred in less dense founder populations of North America. We used high‐quality data on the Quebecois population from 1680 to 1798 to examine the extent to which age‐specific mortality showed predictable epidemic cycles. We further examined whether environmental pressures—temperature, lack of precipitation, or crop failure—may have set the stage for the emergence of epidemics. Methods: We applied autoregressive, integrated, moving average time series methods to annual counts of period mortality for the following age groups: < 1 year, 1 to < 5 years, 5 to < 15 years, 15 to < 50 years, and 50 years and above. These methods controlled for other patterns (e.g., trend) before empirically identifying cycles. Results: Results indicate a strong seven‐year cycle in mortality among infants and children under seven years of age. Warm temperatures (across Quebec overall) and relatively dry years (in Eastern Quebec) also predicted an increased risk of mortality in infancy and childhood, although these environmental variables appear to act independently of the epidemic cycle pattern. Discussion: Findings indicate a strong seven‐year epidemic cycle in historical Quebec which afflicted naïve birth cohorts not previously exposed to the prior epidemic. We contend that smallpox epidemics likely contributed to this cycle. The seven‐year cycle occurred only in the latter half of the test period (post 1740) with increasing size of the colony and population concentration in urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Much cross-sectional work reports an association between neighborhood disadvantage and adverse birth outcomes. Limitations of this work include that mothers with pre-existing unmeasured morbidity may "select" into, or out of, certain neighborhoods. This selection issue remains a key rival explanation for work concerned with place-based disparities in birth outcomes. We move beyond a cross-sectional approach and exploit a sibling-linked data set in California to test whether upwardly mobile mothers, who move from a very high to a very low disadvantaged neighborhood, exhibit a lower than expected risk of preterm birth (PTB) (i.e., delivery <37 weeks).Methods: We used a matched-sibling design for 461,061 sibling pairs (i.e., 922,122 births total) to mothers in urban areas in who gave birth in California from 2005 to 2010. We linked mother's address at two time points (i.e., two sibling birth dates) to a census-derived composite indicator of neighborhood disadvantage. Conditional logistic regression methods controlled for mother's risk of PTB in the sibling delivered before the move when estimating the relation between strong upward mobility and preterm of the subsequent birth after the move.Results: As hypothesized, strong upward mobility (relative to no mobility) varies inversely with the odds of PTB of the second sibling (odds ratio [OR] for PTB = 0.83, 95% confidence interval: 0.74, 0.93).Conclusions: Mothers moving from very high to very low disadvantaged neighborhoods show a reduced odds of PTB. Our findings, if replicated, raise the possibility that improvements in neighborhood quality may improve perinatal health in a relatively short time span. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]