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The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over two million deaths worldwide. Despite efforts to fight the virus, the disease continues to overwhelm hospitals with severely ill patients., Effective methods for predicting COVID-19 disease trajectories are urgently needed. Here, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and coronavirus antigen microarray (COVAM) analysis mapped antibody epitopes in the plasma of COVID-19 patients (n = 86) experiencing a wide range of disease states. The experiments identified antibodies to a 21-residue epitope from nucleocapsid (termed Ep9) associated with severe disease, including admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), requirement for ventilators, or death. Importantly, anti-Ep9 antibodies can be detected within 6 days post-symptom onset and sometimes within 1 day. Furthermore, anti-Ep9 antibodies correlate with various comorbidities and hallmarks of immune hyperactivity. We introduce a simple-to-calculate, disease risk factor score to quantitate each patient’s comorbidities and age. For patients with anti-Ep9 antibodies, scores above 3.0 predict more severe disease outcomes with a 13.42 likelihood ratio (96.7% specificity). The results lay the groundwork for a new type of COVID-19 prognostic to allow early identification and triage of high-risk patients. Such information could guide more effective therapeutic intervention. IMPORTANCE The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over two million deaths worldwide. Despite efforts to fight the virus, the disease continues to overwhelm hospitals with severely ill patients. Diagnosis of COVID-19 is readily accomplished through a multitude of reliable testing platforms; however, prognostic prediction remains elusive. To this end, we identified a short epitope from the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and also a disease risk factor score based upon comorbidities and age. The presence of antibodies specifically binding to this epitope plus a score cutoff can predict severe COVID-19 outcomes with 96.7% specificity.

The botulinum neurotoxin serotype A (BoNT/A) cuts a single peptide bond in SNAP25, an activity used to treat a wide range of diseases. Reengineering the substrate specificity of BoNT/A’s protease domain (LC/A) could expand its therapeutic applications; however, LC/A’s extended substrate recognition (≈60 residues) challenges conventional approaches. We report a directed evolution method for retargeting LC/A’s substrate and retaining its exquisite specificity. The resultant eight-mutation LC/A (omLC/A) has improved cleavage specificity and catalytic efficiency (1300- and 120-fold, respectively) for SNAP23 versus SNAP25 compared to a previously reported LC/A variant. Importantly, the BoNT/A holotoxin equipped with omLC/A infiltrates neurons and retains its SNAP23 activity. The identification of substrate control loops outside BoNT/A’s active site could guide the design of improved BoNT proteases and inhibitors.One Sentence SummaryDirected evolution of the BoNT/A protease targets a new cellular protein, SNAP23, expanding its therapeutic potential.