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This study provides a comprehensive analysis of global, continental, and national trends in the prevalence and mortality of prostate cancer (PC), breast cancer (BC), and thyroid cancer (TC). Utilizing 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD2021) data, prevalence and death rates for 2021 were examined, with temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 analyzed via Joinpoint regression. Annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were calculated with 95% CI. Distributive inequalities were quantified using the slope index of inequality and concentration index. In 2021, PC, BC, and TC showed higher global age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) in Europe and America compared to Africa and Asia, while higher age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for PC and BC were noted in Africa. Over the study period, significant global increases in ASPR were observed for PC (AAPC = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.89), BC (AAPC = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.37), and TC (AAPC = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.52). Conversely, ASDR significantly decreased for PC (AAPC = -0.83, 95% CI: -0.92 to -0.74), BC (AAPC = -0.48, 95% CI: -0.56 to -0.39), and TC (AAPC = -0.23, 95% CI: -0.29 to -0.17). Variations were observed across continents and time periods, affecting 204 countries and territories. Higher Social Development Index (SDI) levels were associated with a more pronounced burden of these cancers. The findings highlight significant global heterogeneity in prevalence, death rates, and temporal trends of endocrine cancers, with important implications for epidemiology and public health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) has the highest disease burden among all skin diseases. However, reports on AD prevalence trends in China are limited. This study aimed to investigate the time trends of AD prevalence in China from 1990 to 2021 and to explore the age and sex differences. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2021. We analyzed the annual percentage change in the crude prevalence rate and age‐standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of AD from 1990 to 2021 using the Joinpoint model. We predicted the future prevalence of AD from 2022 to 2030 using the Bayesian age–period–cohort model. Results: The total ASPR decreased slightly from 1990 (1357.93 per 100,000) to 2021 (1347.11 per 100,000). The ASPR of females (1457.64 per 100,000) was higher than that of males (1247.04 per 100,000) in 2021. The prevalence rate of AD was highest in the under 5 years old age group (3455.56 per 100,000) and the 5–9 years old age group (3360.31 per 100,000). By 2030, the predicted ASPR of AD will be 1394.36 (per 100,000) in males and 1603.69 in females (per 100,000). The predicted prevalence rate in the under 5 years old (3996.14 per 100,000 in males and 3990.68 per 100,000 in females) and 5–9 years old (3714.61 per 100,000 in males and 3963.96 per 100,000 in females) age groups will be higher than those in other age groups. Conclusion: Despite a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend since 2015 in the total AD burden. Given the increasing burden of AD on Chinese children and females, healthcare practitioners should enhance community education, improve disease management abilities of patients and caregivers, and reduce the burden and healthcare costs of AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Methods: We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results: From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85–89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015–2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women. Conclusions: Low dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Liver cancer remains the leading cause of death and public health threat among the Mongolian population. So far, there has been no in-depth analysis to describe the burden of common attributable factors to liver cancer in Mongolia. Therefore, we aimed to explore the most prevalent causes of liver cancer and its trends from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We extracted the primary liver cancer data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to examine the mortality and morbidity of liver cancer by its etiological types, which included alcohol, viral hepatitis B and C, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The data was extracted by sex and 5-year age intervals from 1990 to 2019. Data included mortality, incidence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted l i fe-years (DALYs) of liver cancer among the Mongolian population. Results: Mongolia had the world's highest age-standardized DALYs for liver cancer (2558.1) in 2019. Alcohol-attributable DALYs (786.6) were 29 times higher than the global average (26.1), and liver cancer due to hepatitis C (752.6) and B (763.2) were 21.5 (35.0) and 10.9 (69.1) times higher, respectively. Over the past 30 years, there has been a steady increase in the incidence and number of deaths caused by liver cancer in Mongolia. In 2019, liver cancer incidence due to alcohol consumption was 3.1 times higher for males than females, and hepatitis B was 2.7 times higher for males than females. However, the incidence of hepatitis C and NASH were slightly higher for females. Deaths from liver cancer accounted for 9.51% (2365) of total deaths in Mongolia in 2019, with a continuously increasing trend in the fraction of death compared to 1990, which was 11 times higher than the global average (0.86%), particularly in females with a 319.6% (95% UI 234.9-435.7) increase observed during the study period. Liver cancer due to hepatitis B, C, and alcohol each shared about one-third of liver cancer deaths. Conclusion: A comprehensive analysis of the burden of liver cancer in Mongolia reveals alcohol use as a primary cause of liver cancer mortality, particularly affecting men and significantly impacting the disease burden. Viral hepatitis continues to pose a major public health concern in the country. Although significant milestones have progressed, addressing the unique demographic and geographical challenges requires tailored approaches for specific target populations. The evidence generated from this analysis is crucial to support policy guidance, contribute to evidence-based decisions, guide public health prevention measures, and amplify population health promotion and disease prevention throughout Mongolia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Objectives This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Methods We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85–89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015–2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women. Conclusions Low dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades.

Background Ischemic heart disease is recognized as the most common cardiovascular disease with the highest mortality rate worldwide, resulting in an increasing burden of disease on our population. Conducting trend and predictive analysis of the changing burden of disease is an important topic of concern for health care policy. Objective To compare and analyze the burden of disease and risk factors of ischemic heart disease in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, to predict the trend of change, and to provide a basis for carrying out the prevention and treatment of ischemic heart disease. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) , the log-linear model in Joinpoint was used to analyze the changing trends of the burden of disease of ischemic heart disease in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, and trend tests were performed to predict the burden of disease of ischemic heart disease in China from 2020 to 2035 with the help of R 4.3.0. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALY rate of ischemic heart disease in China were lower than the global level, but all of them showed an overall increasing trend, while all of them showed a decreasing trend globally. The high incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of ischemic heart disease in China and globally are mostly in the elderly population, and the overall burden of ischemic heart disease in China is expected to decrease from 2020 to 2035 (AAPC for morbidity, mortality, and DALY rates are -0.400, -1.167, and -1.318, respectively; P

In response to the challenges of large-scale integration of distributed photovoltaic （PV） sources into distribution networks， an integration capacity planning method for distributed photovoltaic sources based on generalized Benders decomposition （GBD） is proposed. The approach utilizes a data-driven sequential selection method to determine the optimal sequence of variables in the C-Vine Copula model. In combination with Latin hypercube sampling （LHS） and scenario evaluation indicators， typical load-resource correlation scenarios are constructed. Building upon these generated typical scenarios， the paper has established a photovoltaic source integration planning model based on the GBD. This model comprises a main problem for photovoltaic source planning and a sub-problem for distribution network operation， solved using linear programming and optimal power flow methods， respectively. Case studies are conducted on the grid framework of the IEEE 33-bus system. The results demonstrate that the proposed method for generating typical scenarios reduces resource and load errors by over 50% compared to traditional methods. Moreover， the computational complexity of the planning model is reduced by 11%， and the computation time is shortened by 9% compared to previous approaches.

Objectives: To identify the long-term spatiotemporal trend of ozone-related chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden by sex and country and to explore potential drivers. Methods: We retrieved data of ozone-related COPD death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. We used a linear regression of natural logarithms of age-standardized rates (ASRs) with calendar year to examine the trends in ASRs and a panel regression to identify country-level factors associated with the trends. Results: Global ozone-attributable COPD deaths increased from 117,114 to 208,342 among men and from 90,265 to 156,880 among women between 1990 and 2019. Although ASRs of ozone-related COPD death and DALY declined globally, they increased in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, with faster rise in women. Elevated average maximum temperature was associated with higher ozoneattributable COPD burden, while more green space was associated with lower burden. Conclusion: More efforts are needed in low and low-middle SDI regions, particularly for women, to diminish inter-country inequality in ozone-attributable COPD. Global warming may exacerbate the burden. Expanding green space may mitigate the burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Chronic kidney disease(CKD) is one of the most prevalent non-communicable health concerns in children and adolescents worldwide; however, data on its incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and trends in the population are limited. We aimed to assess the global, regional and national trends in CKD burden in children and adolescents. Methods In this trend analysis based on the 2019 Global Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, CKD incidence, prevalence and DALYs rates per 100 000 population for children and adolescents were reported at the global, regional and national levels, as well as the average annual percentage change (AAPC). These global trends were analyzed by age, sex, region and socio-demographic index (SDI). Results Globally, the overall incidence of CKD (all stages including kidney replacement therapy) in children and adolescents showed an increasing trend [AAPC 0.44 (95% confidence interval 0.36–0.52)] between 1990 and 2019. Similarly, the overall prevalence of CKD also showed an upward trend [AAPC 0.46 (0.42–0.51)]. However, the DALYs of CKD showed a continuous decreasing trend [AAPC –1.18 (–1.37 to –0.99)]. The population aged 15–19 years had the largest CKD incidence increase during this period. The largest increase in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was in middle SDI countries [AAPC 0.56 (0.45–0.67)]. The relationship between the ASIR and SDI showed an inverse U-shaped correlation while the relationship between the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) and SDI showed an inverse trend with SDI. Among adolescents (15–19 years), the ASIR continued to increase for five causes of CKD, owing to type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Most of the disease burden was concentrated in countries with a lower SDI. Andean Latin America and Central Latin America showed the largest increases in CKD ASIR between 1990 and 2019. Conclusion The burden of CKD in children and adolescents has increased worldwide, especially in regions and countries with a lower SDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most prevalent liver disease. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 reported a rise in prevalence (9–13%) in Australia, which also ranked third highest for NAFLD prevalence compared to 14 similar countries. As a result of underdiagnosis, NAFLD burden is underestimated by GBD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Simple Summary: In the United States, colorectal cancer (CRC) rates are dropping among adults aged 50 and above, but recent studies show a rise in cases among those under 50. This study compares CRC rates in EU15+ countries to see if similar trends exist in regions with comparable "Western lifestyle" risk factors. Data from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, focusing on incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) across age groups. Globally, the change in percentage rates of CRC increased for all ages over this 30-year period, especially among males (75.9%) and females (27.7%) aged 25–49. This rise was mirrored in 15 of 19 EU15+ countries for males and 16 for females in the same age group. While female mortality rates decreased globally, male rates increased across all ages, highlighting the need to address modifiable risk factors and implement early standardized screening to detect CRC in younger populations. The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the U.S. is declining in adults 50 years and older; however, recent studies suggest an increasing disease burden among adults under age 50. This study aims to compare the incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) of CRC in EU15+ countries to determine if similar age-stratified occurrences are observed across these countries with similar "Western lifestyle"-related risk factors. Incidence and mortality rates for CRC between 1990 and 2019 were extracted using the Global Burden of Disease database. The data were age-stratified into groups between ages 25–49, 50–69, and greater than 69 years. We observed that the incidence of CRC increased globally for all age groups, with the highest increase observed for males (75.9%) and females (27.7%) aged 25–49. A similar trend was observed in 15 of the 19 EU15+ countries for males and 16 of the 19 EU15+ countries for females aged 25–49. Global mortality rates decreased for all age groups in females but increased for males in all age groups. This raises concerns regarding potentially modifiable risk factors contributing to increased CRC development and underscores the importance of implementing standardized screening at an earlier stage to ensure adequate detection in the younger population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy presents a significant health risk in women of reproductive age and their offspring due to severe neurological complications. It is meaningful to assess its global burden and temporal trends. Methods: This study extracted annual incidence cases and rates of ZIKV among women of reproductive age (15–49 years) between 2011 and 2021 from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021, including global level, 21 GBD regions, 5 socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, 7 age groups, and 204 countries and territories. Relative percent change in cases and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence rates were used to quantify the temporal trends. Results: The incidence rate of ZIKV infection exhibited a pronounced peak in 2016 at 174.27 per 100,000 population, with an EAPC of 158.30 % from 2011 to 2016 and −51.86 % from 2016 to 2021 at 3.06 per 100,000 population. And only 5 out of the 21 GBD regions reported ZIKV infection in 2021, predominantly concentrated in Latin America and Caribbean. The outbreaks were primarily concentrated in low-middle and middle SDI regions. In 2021, at the global level, the incidence rates of ZIKV infection among women of reproductive age were similar across different age groups, ranging from 2.41 to 3.39 per 100,000 population. The proportion of ZIKV infection cases was slightly higher in women aged 25–29 and 30–34 years compared to other age groups in 2021, whereas a higher proportion of cases were observed in younger age groups in 2011 and 2016. Conclusions: Women of reproductive age in Latin America and Caribbean continue to face the threat of ZIKV. Regions with lower SDI had a disproportionately severe burden. Future public health strategies should focus on high-risk areas and populations of reproductive age, enhancing surveillance, prevention, and education efforts to further mitigate the public health threat posed by ZIKV.

BackgroundThis study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database to systematically assess the magnitude of drug use disorders (DUD) burden between 1990 and 2021.MethodsThis study used GBD data to analyze the trends in ASIR, DALYs and other DUD indicators from 1990 to 2021, and compared them among different regions and countries. The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and its 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were calculated to assess the temporal and geographical disparities. ASIR and DALYs were used to evaluate the burden of DUDs, and socio-demographic index (SDI) was used to measure the socio-economic development level of each country.ResultsThe global ASIR of DUDs showed a slight downward trend (EAPC = −0.26). The age-standardized DALY rate (per 100,000) significantly declined from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC = −1.44). Among the regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most substantial increase in ASIR (EAPC = 0.65). On a regional level, the high-income North America region had the highest EAPC for both age-standardized DALYs and ASIR (EAPC = 4.82, 1.02, respectively). Nationally, the United States of America reported the largest increase in age-standardized DALY rates and EAPC for ASIR (EAPC of 4.88, 1.05, respectively), while South Africa had the most significant decrease in EAPC (EAPC of −3.62, −1.52, respectively). In 2021, the highest ASIR was observed in high-income North America at 520.07; Central Asia had the highest age-standardized DALY rate. Globally, age-standardized DALYs and ASIR for DUDs were generally higher in men than in women, and the burden of DUDs decreased with age.ConclusionThe global burden of DUDs has shown complex and changing trends over the last decades, with large differences in burden between regions and countries. This highlights the need for targeted public health policies and interventions in High income North America region and Eastern Europe.

BackgroundLiver cancer remains the leading cause of death and public health threat among the Mongolian population. So far, there has been no in-depth analysis to describe the burden of common attributable factors to liver cancer in Mongolia. Therefore, we aimed to explore the most prevalent causes of liver cancer and its trends from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe extracted the primary liver cancer data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to examine the mortality and morbidity of liver cancer by its etiological types, which included alcohol, viral hepatitis B and C, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The data was extracted by sex and 5-year age intervals from 1990 to 2019. Data included mortality, incidence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of liver cancer among the Mongolian population.ResultsMongolia had the world’s highest age-standardized DALYs for liver cancer (2558.1) in 2019. Alcohol-attributable DALYs (786.6) were 29 times higher than the global average (26.1), and liver cancer due to hepatitis C (752.6) and B (763.2) were 21.5 (35.0) and 10.9 (69.1) times higher, respectively. Over the past 30 years, there has been a steady increase in the incidence and number of deaths caused by liver cancer in Mongolia. In 2019, liver cancer incidence due to alcohol consumption was 3.1 times higher for males than females, and hepatitis B was 2.7 times higher for males than females. However, the incidence of hepatitis C and NASH were slightly higher for females. Deaths from liver cancer accounted for 9.51% (2365) of total deaths in Mongolia in 2019, with a continuously increasing trend in the fraction of death compared to 1990, which was 11 times higher than the global average (0.86%), particularly in females with a 319.6% (95% UI 234.9–435.7) increase observed during the study period. Liver cancer due to hepatitis B, C, and alcohol each shared about one-third of liver cancer deaths.ConclusionA comprehensive analysis of the burden of liver cancer in Mongolia reveals alcohol use as a primary cause of liver cancer mortality, particularly affecting men and significantly impacting the disease burden. Viral hepatitis continues to pose a major public health concern in the country. Although significant milestones have progressed, addressing the unique demographic and geographical challenges requires tailored approaches for specific target populations. The evidence generated from this analysis is crucial to support policy guidance, contribute to evidence-based decisions, guide public health prevention measures, and amplify population health promotion and disease prevention throughout Mongolia.

Background: Femur fracture is a type of fracture with high disability and mortality. There is no comprehensive analysis and prediction of the global distribution of femur fractures, so we conducted this study. Methods: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and years living with disability (YLDs) of femur fractures (excluding femoral neck) were downloaded from the Global burden of disease database. Trend analysis was performed, and 6 time-series machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the global ASIR, ASPR, and YLDs. Results: ASPR for femur fracture had been increasing in most countries worldwide from 1990 to 2019, with the highest in East Asia (AAPC = 1.25 95%Confidence Interval (1.2, 1.3)) and lowest in Central Latin America (AAPC = −0.74 95%CI (−0.81, −0.67)). However, ASIR showed a significant downward trend worldwide, with East Saharan Africa decreasing the most (AAPC = −4.04 95%CI (−5.56, −2.47)), and East Asia elevating the most (AAPC = 1.11 95%CI (0.87, 1.42)). YLDs were increasing over the world, with East Asia still elevating the most AAPC= (3.9 95%CI (3.85, 3.95)), with the only region of decrease being Eastern Europe (AAPC = −0.28 95%CI (−0.3, −0.26)). Both ASPR and ASIR were higher in women than in men in the >75 year group, whereas YLDs was lower in women than in men in the >60 year group. Globally, the ARIMA model was optimal in the prediction of ASPR, the PROPHET model effected in the prediction of ASIR, and the PROPHET WITH XGBOOST model was the best in the prediction of YLDs. The projections showed increase in both ASPR and YLDs, except for ASIR decreasing by 2030. Conclusions: Our study found a rise in femur fracture ASPR and ASIR from 1990 to 2019 in war conflict areas and East Asia, meanwhile, the YLDs of femur fracture increased in populous countries. In both 1990 and 2019, both ASPR and ASIR were higher in women over 75 years than that in men, but YLDs was higher in men over 60 years than that in women. In 2020–2030, while global femur fracture ASIR might decline, both ASPR and YLDs might rise. The Translational Potential of this article: Femur fracture is a high-energy injury due to direct violence, and in war, conflicting and underdeveloped regions such as East Asia. Accidental injuries may occur due to the rapid development of industry and the frequent traffic accidents. This study suggests that we should focus on elderly women (≥75 years) in the above regions in the future. For older men (>60 years old), more attention should be paid to post-fracture functional rehabilitation and early reintegration into society to reduce the disability rate and lower the socio-economic burden.

Abstract Background The burden and disability associated with headaches are conceptualized and measured differently at patients’ and populations’ levels. At the patients’ level, through patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs); at population level, through disability weights (DW) and years lived with a disability (YLDs) developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). DW are 0–1 coefficients that address health loss and have been defined through lay descriptions. With this literature review, we aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of disability in headache disorders, and to present a coefficient referring to patients’ disability which might inform future GBD definitions of DW for headache disorders. Methods We searched SCOPUS and PubMed for papers published between 2015 and 2023 addressing disability in headache disorders. The selected manuscript included a reference to headache frequency and at least one PROM. A meta-analytic approach was carried out to address relevant differences for the most commonly used PROMs (by headache type, tertiles of medication intake, tertiles of females’ percentage in the sample, and age). We developed a 0–1 coefficient based on the MIDAS, on the HIT-6, and on MIDAS + HIT-6 which was intended to promote future DW iterations by the GBD consortium. Results A total of 366 studies, 596 sub-samples, and more than 133,000 single patients were available, mostly referred to cases with migraine. Almost all PROMs showed the ability to differentiate disability severity across conditions and tertiles of medication intake. The indexes we developed can be used to inform future iterations of DW, in particular considering their ability to differentiate across age and tertiles of medication intake. Conclusions Our review provides reference values for the most commonly used PROMS and a data-driven coefficient whose main added value is its ability to differentiate across tertiles of age and medication intake which underlie on one side the increased burden due to aging (it is likely connected to the increased impact of common comorbidities), and by the other side the increased burden due to medication consumption, which can be considered as a proxy for headache severity. Both elements should be considered when describing disability of headache disorders at population levels.

Background: The burden and disability associated with headaches are conceptualized and measured differently at patients' and populations' levels. At the patients' level, through patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs); at population level, through disability weights (DW) and years lived with a disability (YLDs) developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). DW are 0–1 coefficients that address health loss and have been defined through lay descriptions. With this literature review, we aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of disability in headache disorders, and to present a coefficient referring to patients' disability which might inform future GBD definitions of DW for headache disorders. Methods: We searched SCOPUS and PubMed for papers published between 2015 and 2023 addressing disability in headache disorders. The selected manuscript included a reference to headache frequency and at least one PROM. A meta-analytic approach was carried out to address relevant differences for the most commonly used PROMs (by headache type, tertiles of medication intake, tertiles of females' percentage in the sample, and age). We developed a 0–1 coefficient based on the MIDAS, on the HIT-6, and on MIDAS + HIT-6 which was intended to promote future DW iterations by the GBD consortium. Results: A total of 366 studies, 596 sub-samples, and more than 133,000 single patients were available, mostly referred to cases with migraine. Almost all PROMs showed the ability to differentiate disability severity across conditions and tertiles of medication intake. The indexes we developed can be used to inform future iterations of DW, in particular considering their ability to differentiate across age and tertiles of medication intake. Conclusions: Our review provides reference values for the most commonly used PROMS and a data-driven coefficient whose main added value is its ability to differentiate across tertiles of age and medication intake which underlie on one side the increased burden due to aging (it is likely connected to the increased impact of common comorbidities), and by the other side the increased burden due to medication consumption, which can be considered as a proxy for headache severity. Both elements should be considered when describing disability of headache disorders at population levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectivesThis study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019.MethodsWe extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect).ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, global age-standardized CVD mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates attributable to high SSB intake decreased, with larger reductions in high-SDI regions. ASMR declined from 19.5 to 13 per 100,000 (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC): −1.46%) and ASDR declined from 345.8 to 220.6 per 100,000 (EAPC: −1.66%). Age-period-cohort analysis showed CVD deaths and DALYs increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85–89 years. Period effects indicated declining CVD mortality and DALY rates since 1999, especially in higher-SDI regions. Cohort effects demonstrated consistent risk declines across successive generations born between 1900 and 1959. Predictions suggest continuing decreases through 2045 globally, but slower declines in lower-SDI regions.ConclusionIn conclusion, this comprehensive assessment of global CVD burden among older adults attributable to high SSB intake highlights major achievements but also persistent areas needing attention. Favorable declining mortality and DALY rate trends reflect substantial progress in CVD control amid population growth and aging.

Abstract Background The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region is alarmingly high, prompting us to investigate the burden and factors contributing to it through the GBD study. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about the epidemiological status of T2DM in this region, so our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the burden of T2DM and its associated risk factors. Methods Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, we calculated the attributable burden of T2DM for each of the 21 countries in the region for the years 1990 and 2019. This included prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors. Results Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence (79.6%; 95% Uncertainty Interval: 75.0 to 84.5) and prevalence (85.5%; [80.8 to 90.3]) rates of T2DM per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized mortality rate (1.7%; [-10.4 to 14.9]), DALYs (31.2%; [18.3 to 42.2]), and years lived with disability (YLDs) (82.6%; [77.2 to 88.1]) also increased during this period. Modifiable risk factors, such as high body mass index (56.4%; [42.8 to 69.8]), low physical activity (15.5%; [9.0 to 22.8]), and ambient particulate matter pollution (20.9%; [15.2 to 26.2]), were the main contributors to the number of deaths. Conclusion The burden of T2DM, in terms of mortality, DALYs, and YLDs, continues to rise in the region. The incidence rate of T2DM has increased in many areas. The burden of T2DM attributed to modifiable risk factors continues to grow in most countries. Targeting these modifiable risk factors could effectively reduce the growth and disease burden of T2DM in the region.

Background: The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region is alarmingly high, prompting us to investigate the burden and factors contributing to it through the GBD study. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about the epidemiological status of T2DM in this region, so our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the burden of T2DM and its associated risk factors. Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, we calculated the attributable burden of T2DM for each of the 21 countries in the region for the years 1990 and 2019. This included prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence (79.6%; 95% Uncertainty Interval: 75.0 to 84.5) and prevalence (85.5%; [80.8 to 90.3]) rates of T2DM per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized mortality rate (1.7%; [-10.4 to 14.9]), DALYs (31.2%; [18.3 to 42.2]), and years lived with disability (YLDs) (82.6%; [77.2 to 88.1]) also increased during this period. Modifiable risk factors, such as high body mass index (56.4%; [42.8 to 69.8]), low physical activity (15.5%; [9.0 to 22.8]), and ambient particulate matter pollution (20.9%; [15.2 to 26.2]), were the main contributors to the number of deaths. Conclusion: The burden of T2DM, in terms of mortality, DALYs, and YLDs, continues to rise in the region. The incidence rate of T2DM has increased in many areas. The burden of T2DM attributed to modifiable risk factors continues to grow in most countries. Targeting these modifiable risk factors could effectively reduce the growth and disease burden of T2DM in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe is at a high level, but the epidemiological features have not yet been systematically studied. This study aimed to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the burden and trends of CRC in Europe to provide a scientific basis for its prevention and treatment. Methods: We analyzed data on CRC in 44 European countries between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. In addition, the joinpoint regression model was applied to reflect temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was constructed to explore age, period, and birth cohort effects that influence the risk of morbidity and mortality. Results: In Europe, new cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths of CRC rose by 70.01%, 22.88% and 38.04% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) has increased, while age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) have declined. We found that men experienced a significantly higher CRC burden than women. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the risk of incidence and mortality increased with age and time; and it was lower in the later-born cohort than the earlier-born cohort. Conclusion: ASIR for CRC in Europe generally trended upwards from 1990 to 2019, stabilizing in recent years but still at a high level. CRC burden varied considerably in different countries. There was a pronounced gender difference in CRC burden, and middle-aged and older men should be a priority population for CRC prevention and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infertility is a common reproductive disease that affects not only individuals and families, but also the growth of the social population. Hence, understanding the burden of female infertility in China and worldwide is of great significance for the development of infertility prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019) Data Resources were used to collect and collate relevant data on female infertility in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2019. The difference in the number, age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), disability-adjusted life years and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of women with infertility in different periods and geographical areas were analysed. The autoregressive integrated moving average method was used to predict the ASPR and ASDR of female infertility in China and worldwide in the next 11 years. Results: In the past 30 years, the number of female infertility cases increased by 7.06 million in China and 56.71 million worldwide. The corresponding average annual increase of ASPR was 10.10% and 7.28%, respectively, and that of ASDR was 0.08% and 0.79%, respectively. In addition, there are differences in age and time between Chinese and global female infertility. In 1990, the crude prevalence rate of female infertility was the highest in women aged 40–44 years and 35–39 years in China and worldwide, respectively. In 2019, the crude prevalence rate of female infertility was still the highest in women aged 40–44 years in China, whereas that around the world reached the highest in women aged 30–34 years, which was significantly earlier. The forecast for the next 11 years suggests that the ASPR and ASDR for female infertility in China will first rise and then decline, but the overall magnitude of change is not very significant, whereas the ASPR and ASDR for female infertility globally are still on the rise. The ASPR value of female infertility is expected to be 5025.56 in 100 000 persons in China and 3725.51 in 100 000 persons worldwide by 2030. The ASDR value of female infertility is expected to be 26.16 in 100 000 persons in China and 19.96 in 100 000 persons worldwide by 2030. Conclusion: The burden of female infertility is still increasing in China and worldwide. Therefore, it is of great significance to pay more attention to infertile women, and advocate a healthy lifestyle to reduce the burden of disease for infertile women. Infertility is a growing concern worldwide, and this study sheds light on the burden of female infertility in China and around the world. The research analysed data from 1990 to 2019 and used forecasting methods to predict future trends. The results show that the number of female infertility cases is still on the rise, and urgent attention is needed to develop prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the burden of disease for infertile women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of cataracts, refractive disorders, age-related macular disease (AMD), and glaucoma, as well as their trends from 1990 to 2019 in Iran, in comparison with high-middle socio-demographic index (HMSDI) countries and the world, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Methods: The GBD study provided data on the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment (VI), as well as four of their causes including cataracts, refractive disorders, age-related macular disease (AMD), and glaucoma. Using Joinpoint analysis, the annual percent change (APC) was calculated to assess the trend of change in prevalence in each category of diseases from 1990 to 2019, stratified by sex and age, for Iran, HMSDI countries, and the world. Results: In 2019, refractive errors and cataracts were the most common causes of blindness and VI for both genders in Iran, HMSDI countries and the world. Iran had a higher age-standardized prevalence in all four categories of ophthalmologic disorders compared to HMSDI countries and the world for both genders in 2019. Additionally, the age-specific prevalence of all four disorders in 2019 was higher in Iran compared to HMSDI countries. However, in terms of trends of prevalence from 1990 to 2019, the rate of reduction for the four ophthalmologic disorders in Iran was higher than in HMSDI and the world for both males and females. Furthermore, Iran had a greater percentage of reduction in prevalence for all age groups in all four disorders compared to HMSDI countries. Conclusion: The prevalence of cataracts, refractive errors, AMD, and glaucoma in Iran was higher compared to HMSDI countries in 2019 for both sexes and all age groups, but the trends of prevalence for all four disorders from 1990 to 2019 in Iran had a higher slope of reduction compared to HMSDI countries for all ages and sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PurposeThis study was based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and aimed to analyze the trend of disease burden for complete edentulism in Chinese adults between 1990 and 2030, and to provide valuable information for the development of more effective management and preventive measures.MethodsData on Chinese adults with complete edentulism from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using GHDx data. Descriptive analyses were used to analyze changes in the prevalence and burden of complete edentulism, gender and age distribution between 1990 and 2019. In addition, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the trend of disease burden for Chinese adults with complete edentulism between 2020 and 2030.ResultsThe incidence, prevalence, and rate of YLDs in adults with complete edentulism in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the incidence was 251.20 per 100,000, the prevalence was 4512.78 per 100,000, and the YLDs were 123.44 per 100,000, marking increases of 20.58, 94.18, and 93.12% from 1990. Males experienced a higher increase than females. However, the standardized rates decreased over the same period. The ARIMA model predicts a subsequent upward and then downward trend for all indicators between 2019 and 2030, except for the standardized incidence rate which remained essentially unchanged. Specifically, the incidence is predicted to decrease from 388.93 to 314.40 per 100,000, prevalence from 4512.78 to 3049.70 per 100,000, and YLDs from 123.44 to 103.44 per 100,000. The standardized prevalence and YLDs rates are also expected to decrease.ConclusionThe burden of complete edentulism in China is projected to show an increasing trend from 2020 to 2022 and a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2030. Despite the decline in the burden of disease associated with complete edentulism in China, many problems remain to be solved.

Objective: To investigate the association between particulate matter and the incidence, disability, and mortality of stroke, we reported the burden of stroke attributable to particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, including ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) and household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP), from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We retrieved the detailed data on the burden of stroke attributable to PM2.5 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and deaths, age-standardized death rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years rates (ASDR) attributable to PM2.5 were estimated by age, sex, geographical location, socio-demographic index (SDI), and stroke subtypes (ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to assess the trends in ASDR and ASMR during the period 1990–2019. Results: Regarding stroke subtypes, the proportion of ischemic stroke burden is increasing, while intracerebral hemorrhage carries the heaviest burden. Both APMP and HAP contributed the most to stroke-related deaths and DALYs of stroke among the elderly populations and males. The highest ASDR and ASMR of stroke attributable to APMP were in the middle SDI regions, especially in East Asia. For HAP, the highest ASDR and ASMR were in the low SDI regions, mainly in Oceania. From 1990–2019, in terms of the EAPC results, APMP caused an increased burden of stroke, whereas the impact of HAP significantly fell. The most pronounced increase in ASDR and ASMR for strokes attributed to APMP were in the low-middle SDI and low SDI regions, particularly among the 25–35 age group. Conclusions: Stroke attributed to PM2.5 is a global health problem, and the patterns and trends were heterogeneous across APMP and HAP. Targeted interventions should be formulated for APMP and HAP.

Abstract Background In recent years, headache disorders have garnered significant attention as a pressing global health issue. This concern is especially pronounced in low- to middle-income countries and exhibits a notable increase in prevalence among adolescents and young adults. Such a surge in these disorders has invariably diminished the quality of life for affected individuals. Despite its global impact, comprehensive studies exploring the ramifications of headache disorders in the younger population remain scant. Our study endeavored to quantify the global prevalence of headache disorders in individuals between the ages of 15 and 39, over a three-decade span from 1990 to 2019. Methods Our study, conducted from 1990 to 2019, evaluated the impact of headache disorders, specifically migraines and tension-type headaches (TTH), in 204 different countries and territories. This comprehensive assessment included a detailed analysis of incidence rates, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across various demographics such as age, gender, year, geographical location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Results In 2019, there were an estimated 581,761,847.2 migraine cases globally (95% UI: 488,309,998.1 to 696,291,713.7), marking a 16% increase from 1990. Concurrently, TTH cases numbered at 964,808,567.1 (95% UI: 809,582,531.8 to 1,155,235,337.2), reflecting a 37% rise since 1990. South Asia reported the highest migraine prevalence with 154,490,169.8 cases (95% UI: 130,296,054.6 to 182,464,065.6). High SDI regions exhibited the most substantial migraine prevalence rates both in 1990 (22,429 per 100,000 population) and 2019 (22,606 per 100,000 population). Among the five SDI classifications, the middle SDI region recorded the highest tally of TTH cases in both 1990 (210,136,691.6 cases) and 2019 (287,577,250 cases). Over the past 30 years, East Asia experienced the most pronounced surge in the number of migraine cases. On the whole, there was a discernible positive correlation between the disease burden of migraine and TTH and the SDI. Conclusion Migraine and TTH represent formidable challenges in global health. The intensity of their impact exhibits marked disparities across nations and is distinctly elevated among women, individuals within the 30–39 age bracket, and populations characterized by a high SDI. The results of our research emphasize the imperative of assimilating migraine and TTH management into contemporary healthcare paradigms. Such strategic integration holds the potential to amplify public cognizance regarding pertinent risk factors and the spectrum of therapeutic interventions at hand.

Background: We aimed to document the current state of exposure to low bone mineral density (BMD) and trends in attributable burdens between 2000 and 2019 globally and in different World Health Organization (WHO) regions using the Glob al Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Methods: We reviewed the sex-region-specific summary exposure value (SEV) of low BMD and the all-ages numbers and age-standardized rates of disabili ty-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and deaths attributed to low BMD. We compared different WHO regions (Africa, the Easte rn Mediterranean Region, Europe, Region of the Americas, Southeast Asia, and Wes tern Pacific), age categories, and sexes according to the estimates of the GBD 2019 report. Results: The global age-standardized SEV of low BMD is estimated to be 2 0.7% in women and 11.3% in men in 2019. Among the WHO regions, Africa had the highest age-standardized SEV of low BMD in women (28.8% (95% uncertainty in terval 22.0–36.3)) and men (16.8% (11.5–23.8)). The lowest SEV was observed in Europe in both women (14.7% (9.9–21.0)) and men (8.0% (4.3–13.4)). An improving trend in th e global rate of DALY, death, and YLL was observed during 2000–2019 (−5.7%, −4.7%, and −11.9% change, respectively); however, the absolute numbers increased with the highest increase observed in global YLD (70.9%) and death numbers (67.6%). South east Asia Region had the highest age-standardized rates of DALY (303.4 (249.2–357.2) ), death (10.6 (8.5–12.3)), YLD (133.5 (96.9–177.3)), and YLL (170.0 (139–197.7)). Conclusions: Overall, the highest-burden attributed to low BMD was observed in the Southeast Asia Region. Knowledge of the SEV of low BMD and the attributed burden can increase the awareness of healthcare decision-makers to adopt appropriate strategies for early screening, and also strategies to prevent falls and fragility fractures and their consequent morbidity and mortality.

Abstract Background Low back pain (LBP) is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide. Differences in social backgrounds and lifestyles in various regions and countries may contribute to the discrepancies in the disease burden of LBP. Methods Based on the GBD 2019, we collected and analyzed numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of LBP disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Temporal trends in ASR were also analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate age, period and cohort trends in DALYs of LBP. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast DALYs of LBP trends from 2020 to 2035. Results The DALYs due to LBP increased from 1990 to 2019. The APC model showed that the risk of DALYs for global LBP increased with age and year and that the risk of DALYs was lower in the later-born cohort than in the earlier-born cohort. The main risk factors which GBD estimates were available for DALYs of LBP include smoking, occupational ergonomic factors and high BMI. It is expected that DALYs of LBP will continue to rise until 2035. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the global disease burden of LBP remained high. It is necessary to pay attention to the influence of social factors and lifestyle on LBP. Focusing on the impact of social factors as well as lifestyle on the prognosis of LBP and targeting interventions may further reduce the disease burden of LBP.

Asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease, with onset usually occurring during childhood or adolescence. The aim of this study was to estimate the dynamic changes in the burden of asthma disease among adolescents (aged 15–39 years). Between 1990 and 2019, our comprehensive analysis spanned 204 nations and territories to ascertain the global prevalence of asthma. This extensive evaluation meticulously quantified the disease's burden by examining a range of critical metrics—including mortality rates, prevalence figures, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)—across diverse demographics. Our investigation systematically segmented the data by age, gender, and year, as well as by geographical regions and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), offering an in-depth perspective on the multifaceted impact of asthma worldwide. From 1990 to 2019, there was a global increase in the incidence cases of asthma among young adults, with the number rising from 6487957.18 (95 %UI: 4578735.08–8736387.55) to 7604488.39 (95 % UI:5428024.98–10177808.25). The prevalence rate of asthma among young adults exhibited a decline from 580.09 per 1,00,000 (95 %UI:481.37–757.28) to 504.28 per 1,00,000 (95 %UI:400.64–633.26). It is also noteworthy that the incidence rates in the remaining SDI regions, although lower, also showed varying degrees of increase in 2015. The age-standardized disease burden rate for asthma among young adults has exhibited a decline over the course of the previous three decades. Nevertheless, regions characterized by lower SDI demonstrate elevated age-standardized mortality rates for asthma, thereby warranting focused attention and prioritized allocation of medical resources.

BackgroundHeadache disorders have become a significant global public health issue, with a notably high prevalence observed in developing countries. However, few studies have assessed headache disorders trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study aimed to assess the prevalence of headache disorders in individuals across the BRICS, spanning the years 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe obtained headache disorders data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD2019). This evaluation examined incidence rates, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for migraine and tension-type headache (TTH) across demographic factors like age, gender, year, and country. Migraine and TTH were diagnosed based on the International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD-3) criteria. We used disease codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision to identify migraine and TTH cases. Statistical analyzes included calculating age-standardized rates and estimated annual percentage changes. Future disease burden was projected using a log-linear age-period-cohort model.ResultsIn 2019, India had the highest prevalence of migraine (213890207.93 cases) and TTH (374,453,700 cases). Brazil had the highest migraine age-standardized prevalence rate (18,331 per 100,000) and incidence rate (1,489 per 100,000). For TTH, India had the highest prevalence (26,160 per 100,000) while Russia had the highest incidence (11,512 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2019, China showed the greatest increase in migraine and TTH prevalence. India had the highest migraine (7,687,692) and TTH (741,392) DALYs in 2019.ConclusionMigraine and TTH remain highly prevalent in BRICS nations, inflicting considerable disability burden. While India and China face mounting disease prevalence, Brazil contends with high incidence rates. Tailored interventions based on country-specific epidemiological profiles are warranted to mitigate the public health impact.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to describe the colorectal cancer trend in the Slovakia between 2002 and 2019. BACKGROUND: In 2020, the Slovakia ranked second among the 10 countries with the highest incidence of colorectal cancer and the highest number of deaths from colorectal cancer (hereafter also referred to as CRC). METHODS: To describe the situation of CRC, indicators of incidence and mortality rates stratifi ed by age and sex for the available time period were chosen. A joinpoint regression software was used to identify changes in the trend of development. RESULTS: During the 18-year follow-up period (2002–2019), the overall trend in colorectal cancer incidence continued to increase with an overall mean annual change of 1.3 %. The incidence of CRC tended to increase from 50 years of age and increased with age. The most pronounced increasing trend was observed in the age group of 75 years and older (AAPC in men 1.9 %, IS +1.4; +2.5 and in women 2.0 %, IS +1.6; +2.4). CRC mortality remained relatively stable for the entire 18-year period. A decreasing trend in mortality was observed in the 25–49 age group with an overall annual percentage decrease of 0.9 % (IS –1.5; –0.3), while an increasing trend was observed in the 75+ age group with an overall annual percentage increase of 1.0 % (IS +0.8; +1.3). The incidence and mortality rates in men were higher than in women. CONCLUSION: The situation of colorectal cancer trend in the Slovakia has improved compared to the previous period (1971–2001) (Tab. 4, Fig. 4, Ref. 34). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the significance of the associations of air pollution and greenness with the risk of breast cancer, this topic has not been investigated on a global scale. We conducted an ecological study using 7 years of data from 162 countries. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incidence data were used to represent the breast cancer disease burden. Particulate matter with a diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were adopted as our exposures. We employed generalized linear mixed models to explore the relationship between air pollution and greenness on breast cancer disease burden. The rate ratio (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) indicate the effect size. There is a positive association between air pollution and the burden of breast cancer disease. Contrarily, per interquartile range increment in NDVI was negatively associated with DALYs and incidence. In terms of air pollutants and breast cancer, NDVI seems to have a significant influence on the relationship between these two conditions. A higher amount of greenness helps to alleviate the negative association of air pollution on breast cancer. PM2.5 and O3 play a mediating role in the relationship between greenness and breast cancer disease burden. In areas with higher levels of greenness, there is a possibility that the inverse association between air pollutants and the burden of breast cancer may be influenced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In recent years, headache disorders have garnered significant attention as a pressing global health issue. This concern is especially pronounced in low- to middle-income countries and exhibits a notable increase in prevalence among adolescents and young adults. Such a surge in these disorders has invariably diminished the quality of life for affected individuals. Despite its global impact, comprehensive studies exploring the ramifications of headache disorders in the younger population remain scant. Our study endeavored to quantify the global prevalence of headache disorders in individuals between the ages of 15 and 39, over a three-decade span from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Our study, conducted from 1990 to 2019, evaluated the impact of headache disorders, specifically migraines and tension-type headaches (TTH), in 204 different countries and territories. This comprehensive assessment included a detailed analysis of incidence rates, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across various demographics such as age, gender, year, geographical location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Results: In 2019, there were an estimated 581,761,847.2 migraine cases globally (95% UI: 488,309,998.1 to 696,291,713.7), marking a 16% increase from 1990. Concurrently, TTH cases numbered at 964,808,567.1 (95% UI: 809,582,531.8 to 1,155,235,337.2), reflecting a 37% rise since 1990. South Asia reported the highest migraine prevalence with 154,490,169.8 cases (95% UI: 130,296,054.6 to 182,464,065.6). High SDI regions exhibited the most substantial migraine prevalence rates both in 1990 (22,429 per 100,000 population) and 2019 (22,606 per 100,000 population). Among the five SDI classifications, the middle SDI region recorded the highest tally of TTH cases in both 1990 (210,136,691.6 cases) and 2019 (287,577,250 cases). Over the past 30 years, East Asia experienced the most pronounced surge in the number of migraine cases. On the whole, there was a discernible positive correlation between the disease burden of migraine and TTH and the SDI. Conclusion: Migraine and TTH represent formidable challenges in global health. The intensity of their impact exhibits marked disparities across nations and is distinctly elevated among women, individuals within the 30–39 age bracket, and populations characterized by a high SDI. The results of our research emphasize the imperative of assimilating migraine and TTH management into contemporary healthcare paradigms. Such strategic integration holds the potential to amplify public cognizance regarding pertinent risk factors and the spectrum of therapeutic interventions at hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide. Differences in social backgrounds and lifestyles in various regions and countries may contribute to the discrepancies in the disease burden of LBP. Methods: Based on the GBD 2019, we collected and analyzed numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of LBP disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Temporal trends in ASR were also analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate age, period and cohort trends in DALYs of LBP. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast DALYs of LBP trends from 2020 to 2035. Results: The DALYs due to LBP increased from 1990 to 2019. The APC model showed that the risk of DALYs for global LBP increased with age and year and that the risk of DALYs was lower in the later-born cohort than in the earlier-born cohort. The main risk factors which GBD estimates were available for DALYs of LBP include smoking, occupational ergonomic factors and high BMI. It is expected that DALYs of LBP will continue to rise until 2035. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2019, the global disease burden of LBP remained high. It is necessary to pay attention to the influence of social factors and lifestyle on LBP. Focusing on the impact of social factors as well as lifestyle on the prognosis of LBP and targeting interventions may further reduce the disease burden of LBP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cirrhosis remains a major public health concern globally; the burden of cirrhosis should be further clarified worldwide and helped us to understand the current situation of cirrhosis. In the present study, we estimate DALYs and mortality rates attributable to several major cirrhosis risk factors and use joinpoint and age‐period‐cohort methods to determine the trends of cirrhosis incidence and deaths in the global population in the 1990–2019 period. Globally, from 1990 to 2019, the incidence of cirrhosis, deaths due to cirrhosis, and cirrhosis DALY cases increased from 1274 (103, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1027.2–1548.5) to 2051.6 (103, 95% UI: 1661.4–2478.1), 1013 (103, 95% UI: 948.9–1073.9) to 1472 (103, 95% UI: 1374.6–1578.7), and 34727.7 (103, 95% UI: 32383.0–37132.8) to 46189.4 (103, 95% UI: 43027.1–49551.3), respectively. Hepatitis virus was the most important cirrhosis mortality risk factor. Globally, hepatitis virus infection (HBV+HCV) accounted for more than 45% of the incidence of cirrhosis cases and about 50% of cirrhosis deaths. Importantly, from 1990 to 2019, the proportion of cirrhosis incidence due to HBV decreased from 24.3% to 19.8%, whereas that due to alcohol use increased from 18.7% to 21.3%. Additionally, the proportion of NAFLD‐induced cirrhosis incidence increased from 5.5% to 6.6% over the same period. Our findings on the global disease burden of cirrhosis provide a valuable resource for developing targeted prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background North Africa and Middle East (NAME) has an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs); however, a systematic understanding of the distribution and trends is not available. We aimed to report the trends of CRDs and attributable risk factors in this region between 1990 and 2019. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, cause specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The burden attributable to risk factors was calculated by a comparative risk assessment and contribution of population ageing and growth was determined by decomposition analysis. Results The number of deaths due to CRD in 2019 were 128,513 (110,781 to 114,351). In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CRDs was 1052.8 (924.3 to 1209.4) per 100,000 population and had a 10.3% increase and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 36.1 (30.9 to 40.3) with a 32.9% decrease compared to 1990. In 2019, United Arab Emirates had the highest ASIR (1412.7 [1237.3 to 1622.2]) and Afghanistan had the highest ASDR (67.8 [52.0 to 81.3]). CRDs were responsible for 2.91% of total DALYs in 2019 (1.69% due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and 1.02% due to asthma). With regard to the components of DALYs, the age-standardized rate of years of life lost (YLL) had a − 39.0% (− 47.1 to − 30.3) decrease; while the age-standardized rate of years lived with disability (YLD) had a 13.4% (9.5 to 17.7) increase. Of total ASDRs of CRDs, 31.6% were attributable to smoking and 14.4% to ambient particulate matter pollution. Conclusion CRDs remain a leading cause of death and disability in NAME, with growth in absolute numbers. COPD and asthma were the most common CRDs and smoking was the leading risk factor especially in men. More attention is needed in order to reduce CRDs’ burden through appropriate interventions and policies.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a cause of chronic liver disease. Model the burden of NASH in the United States according to obesity. The discrete-time Markov model comprised adult NASH subjects moving through 9 health states and 3 absorbing death states (liver, cardiac, and other deaths) with 1-year cycles and a 20-year horizon. Given that reliable natural history data for NASH are not available, transition probabilities were estimated from the literature and population-based data. These rates were disaggregated to determine age–obesity group rates by applying estimated age–obesity patterns. The model considers 2019 prevalent NASH cases and new incident NASH cases (2020–2039), assuming that recent trends will continue. Annual per-patient costs by health state were based on published data. Costs were standardized to 2019 US dollars and inflated by 3% annually. NASH cases in the United States are forecasted to increase by +82.6%, from 11.61 million (2020) to 19.53 million (2039). During the same period, cases of advanced liver disease increased +77.9%, from 1.51 million to 2.67 million, while its proportion remained stable (13.46%–13.05%). Similar patterns were observed in both obese and non-obese NASH. Among NASH, 18.71 million overall deaths, 6.72 million cardiac-specific deaths, and 1.71 million liver-specific deaths were observed by 2039. During this period, the projected cumulative direct healthcare costs were $1208.47 billion (obese NASH) and $453.88 billion (non-obese NASH). By 2039, the projected NASH attributable healthcare cost per patient increased from $3636 to $6968. There is a substantial and growing clinical and economic burden of NASH in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectiveThis study sought to investigate the parasitic diseases of neglected tropical diseases defined by the World Health Organization based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database. Importantly, we analyzed the prevalence and burden of these diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 to provide valuable information to formulate more effective measures for their management and prevention.MethodsData on the prevalence and burden of neglected parasitic diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global health data exchange (GHDx) database, including the absolute number of prevalence, age-standardized prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rate. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the prevalence and burden changes, sex and age distribution of various parasitic diseases from 1990 to 2019. A time series model [Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)] was used to predict the DALYs of neglected parasitic diseases in China from 2020 to 2030.ResultsIn 2019, the number of neglected parasitic diseases in China was 152518062, the age-standardized prevalence was 11614.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8758.5–15244.5), the DALYs were 955722, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 54.9 (95% UI 26.0–101.8). Among these, the age-standardized prevalence of soil-derived helminthiasis was the highest (9370.2/100,000), followed by food-borne trematodiases (1502.3/100,000) and schistosomiasis (707.1/100,000). The highest age-standardized DALY rate was for food-borne trematodiases (36.0/100,000), followed by cysticercosis (7.9/100,000) and soil-derived helminthiasis (5.6/100,000). Higher prevalence and disease burden were observed in men and the upper age group. From 1990 to 2019, the number of neglected parasitic diseases in China decreased by 30.4%, resulting in a decline in DALYs of 27.3%. The age-standardized DALY rates of most diseases were decreased, especially for soil-derived helminthiasis, schistosomiasis and food-borne trematodiases. The ARIMA prediction model showed that the disease burden of echinococcosis and cysticercosis exhibited an increasing trend, highlighting the need for further prevention and control.ConclusionAlthough the prevalence and disease burden of neglected parasitic diseases in China have decreased, many issues remain to be addressed. More efforts should be undertaken to improve the prevention and control strategies for different parasitic diseases. The government should prioritize multisectoral integrated control and surveillance measures to prioritize the prevention and control of diseases with a high burden of disease. In addition, the older adult population and men need to pay more attention.

BackgroundMonitoring the transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a population is fundamental for identifying the key population and designing prevention interventions. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the gender disparities in HIV incidence and the age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of HIV in India for identifying the predictors that might have led to changes in the last three decades.Data and methodsThis study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for the period 1990–2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify the magnitude of the changes in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV. The average annual percentage changes in the incidence were computed, and the age–period–cohort analysis was performed.ResultsA decreasing trend in the overall estimates of age-standardized HIV incidence rates were observed in the period 1990–2019. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence significantly declined from its peak in 1997 to 2019 (38.0 and 27.6 among males and females per 100,000 in 1997 to 5.4 and 4.6, respectively, in 2019). The APC was estimated to be 2.12 among males and 1.24 among females for the period 1990–2019. In recent years, although the gender gap in HIV incidence has reduced, females were observed to bear a proportionately higher burden of HIV incidence. Age effect showed a decline in HIV incidence by 91.1 and 70.1% among males and females aged between 15–19 years and 75–79 years. During the entire period from 1990–1994 to 2015–2019, the RR of HIV incidence decreased by 36.2 and 33.7% among males and females, respectively.ConclusionIndia is experiencing a decline in new HIV infections in recent years. However, the decline is steeper for males than for females. Findings highlight the necessity of providing older women and young women at risk with effective HIV prevention. This study emphasizes the need for large-scale HIV primary prevention efforts for teenage girls and young women.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy presents a significant health risk in women of reproductive age and their offspring due to severe neurological complications. It is meaningful to assess its global burden and temporal trends. This study extracted annual incidence cases and rates of ZIKV among women of reproductive age (15–49 years) between 2011 and 2021 from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021, including global level, 21 GBD regions, 5 socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, 7 age groups, and 204 countries and territories. Relative percent change in cases and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence rates were used to quantify the temporal trends. The incidence rate of ZIKV infection exhibited a pronounced peak in 2016 at 174.27 per 100,000 population, with an EAPC of 158.30 % from 2011 to 2016 and −51.86 % from 2016 to 2021 at 3.06 per 100,000 population. And only 5 out of the 21 GBD regions reported ZIKV infection in 2021, predominantly concentrated in Latin America and Caribbean. The outbreaks were primarily concentrated in low-middle and middle SDI regions. In 2021, at the global level, the incidence rates of ZIKV infection among women of reproductive age were similar across different age groups, ranging from 2.41 to 3.39 per 100,000 population. The proportion of ZIKV infection cases was slightly higher in women aged 25–29 and 30–34 years compared to other age groups in 2021, whereas a higher proportion of cases were observed in younger age groups in 2011 and 2016. Women of reproductive age in Latin America and Caribbean continue to face the threat of ZIKV. Regions with lower SDI had a disproportionately severe burden. Future public health strategies should focus on high-risk areas and populations of reproductive age, enhancing surveillance, prevention, and education efforts to further mitigate the public health threat posed by ZIKV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acute hepatitis E (AHE) poses a significant threat to global public health, particularly among women of childbearing age (WCBA), who are at heightened risk for severe pregnancy-related complications. This study aimed to delineate the temporal trends and project future incidence of AHE in WCBA, providing insights crucial for targeted prevention and control strategies. Data on AHE incidence from the Global Health data 2021. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts, and the Bayesian APC model was utilized for forecasting future epidemiological trajectories. Globally, AHE incidence numbers among WCBA rose from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined from 194.66 to 179.54 per 100,000 with a global net drift of −0.28%. However, high SDI regions showed a contrasting trend with a positive net drift of 0.02%. The age effect was consistent across SDI regions and globally, showing a decrease with advancing age, while unfavorable period and cohort effects were exhibited in high-SDI region. At the national level, locations exhibited varying trends of change. The BAPC model predicted a total of 3,759,384 AHE global cases in WCBA by 2030, with an expected mild increase in the ASIR. The outlook for the management and containment of AHE is grim in certain countries, including India. The study revealed a complex epidemiological landscape of AHE in WCBA, with increasing global incidence numbers juxtaposed against a declining ASIR. The AHE burden by 2030 remain severe among WCBA. Young WCBA and high SDI region merit particular attention. The findings underscore the need for region-specific strategies to curb the projected rise in AHE incidence and align with the 2030 WHO goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12–141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer. Conclusion: A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.

Background: Meningitis can cause devastating epidemics and is susceptible to climate change. It is unclear how temperature variability, an indicator of climate change, is associated with meningitis incidence. Methods: We used global meningitis incidence data along with meteorological and demographic data over 1990–2019 to identify the association between temperature variability and meningitis. We also employed future (2020–2100) climate data to predict meningitis incidence under different emission levels (SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). Results: We found that the mean temperature variability increased by almost 3 folds in the past 30 years. The largest changes occurred in Australasia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. With a logarithmic unit increase in temperature variability, the overall global meningitis risk increases by 4.8 %. Australasia, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and High-income North America are the most at-risk regions. Higher statistical differences were identified in males, children, and the elderly population. Compared to high-emission (SSP585) scenario, we predicted a median reduction of 85.8 % in meningitis incidence globally under the low-emission (SSP126) climate change scenario by 2100. Conclusion: Our study provides evidence for temperature variability being in association with meningitis incidence, which suggests that global actions are urgently needed to address climate change and to prevent meningitis occurrence.

BackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the most common chronic respiratory disease in the world, especially in China. Few studies have explored the trend of COPD in China and its provinces. This study aimed to demonstrate and predict the trend of COPD DALY in China and its provinces based on the global burden of disease (GBD) data.MethodsThe data on COPD disability-adjusted life year (DALY) were collected from GBD 2017, GBD 2019, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The age-standardized rate (ASR) was used to evaluate the trend of COPD DALY by gender, age, and risk factors in China and its provinces. In addition, the trend of COPD considering the aging population in the next 10 years was also predicted.ResultsIn China, the COPD DALY was 20.4 million in 2017, which decreased to 24.16% from 1990 to 2017. Most provinces showed a downward trend, with the exception of Taiwan which increased by 127.78%. The ASR of DALY was 1445.53 per 100,000 people in 2017 and demonstrated a significant decrease. Among all provinces, only Taiwan (97.78%) and Hubei (2.21%) demonstrated an increased trend of ASR. In addition, Tibet ranked third with a decline of 56.95%, although its ASR was the highest in 1990. Smoking and air pollution were the main risk factors for COPD and varied with regions, gender, and age. The proportion of COPD DALY attributable to smoking was higher in the middle-aged and elderly male population and did not decrease in China. Moreover, the ASR attributable to air pollution of the elderly decreased significantly in China. Socio-demographic index (SDI) and educational level were also found to be related to ASR. By predicting the ASR trend in the next 10 years, we found that the ASR attributable to smoking might increase significantly among men. The ASR attributable to air pollution showed a significant decrease in women. Unfortunately, ASR attributable to second-hand smoke was found to increase in women.ConclusionChronic obstructive pulmonary disease is the leading contributor to the burden of global diseases. Although China and its provinces demonstrated a downward trend of COPD DALY, some provinces still faced challenges. Moreover, ASR attributable to risk factors was different in regions, gender, age, and years. The predicted trend of COPD was also different. Therefore, more targeted strategies should be formulated to reduce the burden of COPD in China and its provinces.

Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the burden and trends of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease (VHD) in Pakistan compared to the South Asian (SA) and Global figures based on estimates of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for the years 1990 to 2019. Methodology: Data for the estimated prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with age-standardized death rate (ASDR) due to non-rheumatic VHD in Pakistan, was extracted from the GBD study. Results: The prevalence of non-rheumatic VHD in Pakistan increased by 14.1% from 1990 to 2019, from 6.4 to 7.3/100,000. The ASDR per 100,000 population has shown a 12.9% increase between the years 1990 and 2019 (from 1.32 to 1.49) with an IRR of 1.102 [1.002 -1.1983]. However, global and SA's decreased slightly with an IRR of 0.997 [0.971-1.024] and 0.996 [0.959-1.034]. The estimated number of deaths has shown a 1.1% increase from 0.6 to 0.6/100,000 from 1990 to 2019. Similarly, the estimated number of DALYs has shown an increased (17%) from 14.1 in 1990 to 16.5/100,000 in 2019. Interestingly, Sindh, Baluchistan, and Azad Jammu & Kashmir also had seen the most significant increase in DALYs over 30 years, accounting for 30.3%, 23.7%, and 23.9% respectively. Conclusion: Based on the analysis of GBD estimates, it can be concluded that, in Pakistan, the prevalence, deaths, and DALYs rate of non-rheumatic VHD per 100 thousand individuals increased substantially between 1990 and 2019. The age-standardized death rate also significantly increased over the past 30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of nutritional deficiencies in China remained stable. However, the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) rate of nutritional deficiencies decreased from 1990 to 2019. Data were extracted from the GBD 2019 datasets. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the incidence rate, and DALY trends of nutritional deficiencies. Measures were stratified by subtypes, regions, and age groups. In 2019, the age-standardized DALY rates of dietary iron deficiency and protein-energy malnutrition reached their highest levels. The main population groups with protein-energy malnutrition and dietary iron deficiency were adults over the age of 70 and children under the age of five. The latter group also had a greater burden of vitamin A deficiency. Zhejiang, Beijing, and Guangdong reported the highest age-standardized incidence rates of nutritional deficiencies, which mainly pertained to protein-energy malnutrition and vitamin A deficiency. Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hainan had the highest age-standardized DALY rates of nutritional deficiencies, which mainly pertained to dietary iron deficiency and protein-energy malnutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: North Africa and Middle East (NAME) has an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs); however, a systematic understanding of the distribution and trends is not available. We aimed to report the trends of CRDs and attributable risk factors in this region between 1990 and 2019.Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, cause specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The burden attributable to risk factors was calculated by a comparative risk assessment and contribution of population ageing and growth was determined by decomposition analysis.Results: The number of deaths due to CRD in 2019 were 128,513 (110,781 to 114,351). In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CRDs was 1052.8 (924.3 to 1209.4) per 100,000 population and had a 10.3% increase and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 36.1 (30.9 to 40.3) with a 32.9% decrease compared to 1990. In 2019, United Arab Emirates had the highest ASIR (1412.7 [1237.3 to 1622.2]) and Afghanistan had the highest ASDR (67.8 [52.0 to 81.3]). CRDs were responsible for 2.91% of total DALYs in 2019 (1.69% due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and 1.02% due to asthma). With regard to the components of DALYs, the age-standardized rate of years of life lost (YLL) had a - 39.0% (- 47.1 to - 30.3) decrease; while the age-standardized rate of years lived with disability (YLD) had a 13.4% (9.5 to 17.7) increase. Of total ASDRs of CRDs, 31.6% were attributable to smoking and 14.4% to ambient particulate matter pollution.Conclusion: CRDs remain a leading cause of death and disability in NAME, with growth in absolute numbers. COPD and asthma were the most common CRDs and smoking was the leading risk factor especially in men. More attention is needed in order to reduce CRDs' burden through appropriate interventions and policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]