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Author(s): S. Gavrilets [1] Gavrilets replies -- Tregenza et al. maintain that my model's predictions [1] run counter to the model of Parker and Partridge [2], but it is not [...]

Testing whether some species traits have a significant effect on diversification rates is central in the assessment of macroevolutionary theories. However, we still lack a powerful method to tackle this objective. I present a new method for the statistical analysis of diversification with species traits. The required data are observations of the traits on recent species, the phylogenetic tree of these species, and reconstructions of ancestral values of the traits. Several traits, either continuous or discrete, and in some cases their interactions, can be analyzed simultaneously. The parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. The statistical significance of the effects in a model can be tested with likelihood ratio tests. A simulation study showed that past random extinction events do not affect the Type I error rate of the tests, whereas statistical power is decreased, though some power is still kept if the effect of the simulated trait on speciation is strong. The use of the method is illustrated by the analysis of published data on primates. The analysis of these data showed that the apparent overall positive relationship between body mass and species diversity is actually an artifact due to a clade-specific effect. Within each clade the effect of body mass on speciation rate was in fact negative. The present method allows to take both effects (clade and body mass) into account simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present here a stochastic two-locus, two-habitat model for the evolution of migration with local adaptation and kin selection. One locus determines the migration rate while the other causes local adaptation. We show that the opposing forces of kin competition and local adaptation can lead to the existence of one or two convergence stable migration rates, notably depending on the recombination rate between the two loci. We show that linkage between migration and local adaptation loci has two antagonist effects: when linkage is tight, cost of local adaptation increases, leading to smaller equilibrium migration rates. However, when linkage is tighter, the population structure at the migration locus tends to be very high because of the indirect selection, and thus equilibrium migration rates increases. This result, qualitatively different from results obtained with other models of migration evolution, indicates that ignoring drift or the detail of the genetic architecture may lead to incorrect conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the Diptera, two different selfish genetic elements are known to cause the production of female-biased sex ratios: maternally inherited bacteria that kill male zygotes (male-killers), and X chromosomes causing the degeneration of Y-bearing sperm in males (meiotic drive). We here develop a mathematical model for the dynamics of these two sex-ratio distorters where they co-occur. We show that X chromosome meiotic drive elements can be expected to substantially lower the equilibrium frequency of male-killers and can even lead to their extinction. Conversely, male-killers can also decrease the equilibrium frequency of X drivers and cause their extinction. Thus, we predict that there will be some complementarity in the incidence of X chromosome meiotic drive and male-killing in natural populations, with a lower than expected number of species bearing both elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sexual conflict, where male and female reproductive interests differ, is probably widespread and often mediated by male or sperm proteins and female or egg proteins that bind to each other during mating or fertilization. One potential consequence is maintenance of polymorphism in these proteins, which might result in reproductive isolation between sympatric subpopulations. I investigate the conditions for polymorphism maintenance in a series of mathematical models of sexual conflict over mating or fertilization frequency. The models represent a male or sperm ligand and a female or egg receptor, and they differ in whether expression of either protein is haploid or diploid. For diploid expression, the conditions imply that patterns of dominance, which involve neither overdominance nor underdominance, can determine whether polymorphism is maintained. For example, suppose ligand expression is diploid, and consider ligand alleles L1 and L2 in interactions with a given receptor genotype; if L1/L1 males are fitter than L2/L2 males in these interactions, then polymorphism is more likely to be maintained when L1/L2 males more closely resemble L1/L1 males in these interactions. Such fitter-allele dominance might be typical of a ligand or its receptor due to their biochemistry, in which case polymorphism might be typical of the pair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the population genetics of adaptation in nonequilibrium haploid asexual populations. We find that the accumulation of deleterious mutations, due to the operation of Muller's ratchet, can considerably reduce the rate of fixation of advantageous alleles. Such reduction can be approximated reasonably well by a reduction in the effective population size. In the absence of Muller's ratchet, a beneficial mutation can only become fixed if it creates the best possible genotype; if Muller's ratchet operates, however, mutations initially arising in a nonoptimal genotype can also become fixed in the population, since the loss of the least-loaded class implies that an initially nonoptimal background can become optimal. We show that, while the rate at which adaptive mutations become fixed is reduced, the rate of fixation of deleterious mutations due to the ratchet is not changed by the presence of beneficial mutations as long as the rate of their occurrence is low and the deleterious effects of mutations (sd) are higher than the beneficial effects (sa). When sa > sd, the advantage of a beneficial mutation can outweigh the deleterious effects of associated mutations. Under these conditions, a beneficial allele can drag to fixation deleterious mutations initially associated with it at a higher rate than in the absence of advantageous alleles. We propose analytical approximations for the rates of accumulation of deleterious and beneficial mutations. Furthermore, when allowing for the possible occurrence of interference between beneficial alleles, we find that the presence of deleterious mutations of either very weak or very strong effect can marginally increase the rate of accumulation of beneficial mutations over that observed in the absence of such deleterious mutations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although reinforcement is ostensibly driven by selection against hybrids, there are often other components in empirical cases and theoretical models of reinforcement that may contribute to premating isolation. One of these components is local adaptation of a trait used in mate choice. I use several different comparisons to assess the roles that local adaptation and selection against hybrids may play in reinforcement models. Both numerical simulations of exact recursion equations and analytical weak selection approximations are employed. I find that selection against hybrids may play a small role in driving preference evolution in a reinforcement model where the mating cue is separate from loci causing hybrid incompatibilities. When females have preferences directly for purebreds of their own population, however, selection against hybrids can play a large role in premating isolation evolution. I present some situations in which this type of selection is likely to exist. This work also illustrates shortfalls of using a weak selection approach to address questions about reinforcement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While it now appears likely that sympatric speciation is possible, its generality remains contentious. If it really is rare, then most natural populations must not fit the assumptions of sympatric speciation theory. A better understanding of these assumptions may help identify when sympatric speciation is or is not likely. This paper investigates two such assumptions: that genetic variation for stringent assortative mating is not limiting and that females are not penalized for mating assortatively. Simulations demonstrate that the speed of sympatric speciation is very sensitive to the population's capacity for stringent assortative mating and is potentially extremely slow. The rapid divergence often thought to be a hallmark of sympatric speciation may only occur in a restricted area of parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Learning processes potentially play a role in speciation but are often ignored in speciation models. Learning may, for instance, play a role when a new niche is being colonized, because the learning of niche features may cause niche-specific assortative mating and a tendency to produce young in this niche. Several animal species learn about their environmental features that may be important in finding or attracting mates. We use a gene-culture coevolutionary model to look into the effect of such learning on the colonization of new niches and on the genetic divergence between groups using different niches, which are steps necessary in achieving speciation. We assume that density is regulated separately in each of the two niches and that the viability of an individual depends on its genotype as well as on which niche it exploits. Our results show that genetic adaptation to the new niche is enhanced by a high female fecundity and a low viability selection against heterozygotes. Furthermore, when initial colonization (without genetic adaptation) fails, genetic divergence is more difficult when the mating preference is stronger. In contrast, when colonization without genetic adaptation is successful, a stronger mating preference makes genetic divergence easier. An increase in the number of egg-laying mistakes by females can have a positive or negative effect on the success of genetic adaptation depending on other parameters. We show that genetic divergence can be prevented by a niche shift, which can occur only if viabilities in the two niches are asymmetrical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twenty years ago, Bulmer and Bull suggested that disruptive selection, produced by environmental fluctuations, can result in an evolutionary transition from environmental sex determination (ESD) to genetic sex determination (GSD). We investigated the feasibility of such a process, using mutation-limited adaptive dynamics and individual-based computer simulations. Our model describes the evolution of a reaction norm for sex determination in a metapopulation setting with partial migration and variation in an environmental variable both within and between local patches. The reaction norm represents the probability of becoming a female as a function of environmental state and was modeled as a sigmoid function with two parameters, one giving the location (i.e., the value of the environmental variable for which an individual has equal chance of becoming either sex) and the other giving the slope of the reaction norm for that environment. The slope can be interpreted as being set by the level of developmental noise in morph determination, with less noise giving a steeper slope and a more switchlike reaction norm. We found convergence stable reaction norms with intermediate to large amounts of developmental noise for conditions characterized by low migration rates, small differential competitive advantages between the sexes over environments, and little variation between individual environments within patches compared to variation between patches. We also considered reaction norms with the slope parameter constrained to a high value, corresponding to little developmental noise. For these we found evolutionary branching in the location parameter and a transition from ESD toward GSD, analogous to the original analysis by Bulmer and Bull. Further evolutionary change, including dominance evolution, produced a polymorphism acting as a GSD system with heterogamety. Our results point to the role of developmental noise in the evolution of sex determination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review theoretical approaches for modelling the origin, persistence and change of social norms. The most comprehensive models describe the coevolution of behaviours, personal, descriptive and injunctive norms while considering influences of various authorities and accounting for cognitive processes and between-individual differences. Models show that social norms can improve individual and group well-being. Under some conditions though, deleterious norms can persist in the population through conformity, preference falsification and pluralistic ignorance. Polarization in behaviour and beliefs can be maintained, even when societal advantages of particular behaviours or belief systems over alternatives are clear. Attempts to change social norms can backfire through cognitive processes including cognitive dissonance and psychological reactance. Under some conditions social norms can change rapidly via tipping point dynamics. Norms can be highly susceptible to manipulation, and network structure influences their propagation. Future models should incorporate network structure more thoroughly, explicitly study online norms, consider cultural variations and be applied to real-world processes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Social norm change: drivers and consequences'.

Social norms research is booming. In recent years, several experts have recommended using social norms (unwritten rules that prescribe what people ought or ought not to do) to confront the societal, environmental and health challenges our societies face. If we are to do so, a better understanding is required of how social norms themselves emerge, evolve and respond to these challenges. Social norms have long been used as post hoc explanations of behaviour or are seen as stable social constructs. Yet norms evolve dynamically with the changing group processes (e.g. political polarization, kinship structures) and societal challenges (e.g. pandemics, climate change) for which they are presented as solutions. The Theme Issue 'Social norm change: drivers and consequences' contains 14 contributions that present state-of-the-art approaches to understand what generates social norm change and how this impacts our societies. Contributions give insight into (i) the identification of norms, norm change and their effect on behaviour; (ii) drivers and consequences of spontaneous norm change; and (iii) how norm change can be engineered to promote desired behavioural change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Social norm change: drivers and consequences'.

Social norms are the glue that holds society together, yet our knowledge of them remains heavily intellectually siloed. This article provides an interdisciplinary review of the emerging field of norm dynamics by integrating research across the social sciences through a cultural-evolutionary lens. After reviewing key distinctions in theory and method, we discuss research on norm psychology-the neural and cognitive underpinnings of social norm learning and acquisition. We then overview how norms emerge and spread through intergenerational transmission, social networks, and group-level ecological and historical factors. Next, we discuss multilevel factors that lead norms to persist, change, or erode over time. We also consider cultural mismatches that can arise when a changing environment leads once-beneficial norms to become maladaptive. Finally, we discuss potential future research directions and the implications of norm dynamics for theory and policy.

To address claims of human exceptionalism, we determine where humans fit within the greater mammalian distribution of reproductive inequality. We show that humans exhibit lower reproductive skew (i.e., inequality in the number of surviving offspring) among males and smaller sex differences in reproductive skew than most other mammals, while nevertheless falling within the mammalian range. Additionally, female reproductive skew is higher in polygynous human populations than in polygynous nonhumans mammals on average. This patterning of skew can be attributed in part to the prevalence of monogamy in humans compared to the predominance of polygyny in nonhuman mammals, to the limited degree of polygyny in the human societies that practice it, and to the importance of unequally held rival resources to women's fitness. The muted reproductive inequality observed in humans appears to be linked to several unusual characteristics of our species-including high levels of cooperation among males, high dependence on unequally held rival resources, complementarities between maternal and paternal investment, as well as social and legal institutions that enforce monogamous norms.

Human decision-making is controlled by various factors including material cost-benefit considerations, values and beliefs, social influences, cognitive factors and errors. Among social influences, those by external authorities (e.g. educational, cultural, religious, political, administrative, etc.) are particularly important owing to their potential reach and power. To better understand the effects of 'soft' power of authorities we develop a unifying theoretical framework integrating material, cognitive and social forces controlling the joint dynamics of individual actions and beliefs. We apply our approach to three different phenomena: evolution of food sharing in small-scale societies, participation in political protests and effects of priming social identity in behavioural experiments. For each of these applications, we show that our approach leads to different (or simpler) explanations of human behaviour than alternatives. We highlight the type of measurements which can be helpful in developing practical applications of our approach. We identify and explicitly characterise the degree of mismatch between individual actions and attitudes. We assert that the effects of external authorities, of changing beliefs and of differences between people must be studied empirically, included in mathematical models, and accounted for when developing different policies aiming to modify or sustain human behaviour., Competing Interests: There are no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

During the Holocene, the scale and complexity of human societies increased markedly. Generations of scholars have proposed different theories explaining this expansion, which range from broadly functionalist explanations, focusing on the provision of public goods, to conflict theories, emphasizing the role of class struggle or warfare. To quantitatively test these theories, we develop a general dynamical model based on the theoretical framework of cultural macroevolution. Using this model and Seshat: Global History Databank, we test 17 potential predictor variables proxying mechanisms suggested by major theories of sociopolitical complexity (and >100,000 combinations of these predictors). The best-supported model indicates a strong causal role played by a combination of increasing agricultural productivity and invention/adoption of military technologies (most notably, iron weapons and cavalry in the first millennium BCE).

Technological innovations drive the evolution of human societies. The success of innovations depends not only on their actual benefits but also on how potential adopters perceive them and how their beliefs are affected by their social and cultural environment. To deepen our understanding of socio-psychological processes affecting the new technology spread, we model the joint dynamics of three interlinked processes: individual learning and mastering the new technology, changes in individual attitudes towards it, and changes in individual adoption decisions. We assume that the new technology can potentially lead to a higher benefit but achieving it requires learning. We posit that individual decision-making process as well as their attitudes are affected by cognitive dissonance and conformity with peers and an external authority. Individuals vary in different psychological characteristics and in their attitudes. We investigate both transient dynamics and long-term equilibria observed in our model. We show that early adopters are usually individuals who are characterized by low cognitive dissonance and low conformity with peers but are sensitive to the effort of an external authority promoting the innovation. We examine the effectiveness of five different intervention strategies aiming to promote the diffusion of a new technology: training individuals, providing subsidies for early adopters, increasing the visibility of peer actions, simplifying the exchange of opinions between people, and increasing the effort of an external authority. We also discuss the effects of culture on the spread of innovations. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the cognitive forces and the dynamic nature of individual attitudes can lead to wrong conclusions about adoption of innovations. Our results can be useful in developing more efficient policies aiming to promote the spread of new technologies in different societies, cultures and countries., (© 2022 The Authors.)

Economic, social and political inequality between different identity groups is an important contributor to violent conflicts within societies. To deepen our understanding of the underlying social dynamics, we develop a mathematical model describing cooperation and conflict in a society composed of multiple factions engaged in economic and political interactions. Our model predicts that growing economic and political inequality tends to lead to the collapse of cooperation between factions that were initially seeking to cooperate. Certain mechanisms can delay this process, including the decoupling of political and economic power through rule of law and allegiance to the state or dominant faction. Counterintuitively, anti-conformity (a social norm for independent action) can also stabilize society, by preventing initial defections from cooperation from cascading through society. However, the availability of certain material resources that can be acquired by the state without cooperation with other factions has the opposite effect. We test several of these predictions using a multivariate statistical analysis of data covering 75 countries worldwide. Using social unrest as a proxy for the breakdown of cooperation in society, we find support for many of the predictions from our theory.

Division of labor exists at different levels of biological organization - from cell colonies to human societies. One of the simplest examples of the division of labor in multicellular organisms is germ-soma specialization, which plays a key role in the evolution of organismal complexity. Here we formulate and study a general mathematical model exploring the emergence of germ-soma specialization in colonies of cells. We consider a finite population of colonies competing for resources. Colonies are of the same size and are composed by asexually reproducing haploid cells. Each cell can contribute to activity and fecundity of the colony, these contributions are traded-off. We assume that all cells within a colony are genetically identical but gene effects on fecundity and activity are influenced by variation in the microenvironment experienced by individual cells. Through analytical theory and evolutionary agent-based modeling we show that the shape of the trade-off relation between somatic and reproductive functions, the type and extent of variation in within-colony microenvironment, and, in some cases, the number of genes involved, are important predictors of the extent of germ-soma specialization. Specifically, increasing convexity of the trade-off relation, the number of different environmental gradients acting within a colony, and the number of genes (in the case of random microenvironmental effects) promote the emergence of germ-soma specialization. Overall our results contribute towards a better understanding of the role of genetic, environmental, and microenvironmental factors in the evolution of germ-soma specialization., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)