Search

Our paper reexamines whether 29 variables from 26 papers published after Goyal and Welch 2008 , as well as the original 17 variables, were useful in predicting the equity premium in-sample and out-of-sample as of the end of 2021. Our samples include the original periods in which these variables were identified, but end later. More than one-third of these new variables no longer have empirical significance even in-sample. Of those that do, half have poor out-of-sample performance. A small number of variables still perform reasonably well both in-sample and out-of-sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze how ETFs compete. Drawing on a new model and empirical analysis, we show that ETF secondary market liquidity plays a key role in determining fees. More liquid ETFs for a given index charge higher fees and attract short-horizon investors who are more sensitive to liquidity than to fees. Higher turnover from these investors sustains the ETF's high liquidity, allowing the ETF to extract a rent through its fee, and creating a first-mover advantage. Liquidity segmentation through clientele effects generates welfare losses. Our findings resolve the apparent paradox that higher-fee ETFs not only survive but also flourish in equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that institutional brokerage networks facilitate liquidity provision and mitigate the price impact of large non-information-motivated trades. Using commissions, we map trading networks of mutual funds (institutions) and their brokers. Central funds (institutions) tend to outperform their peripheral counterparts in terms of return gap (execution shortfall). This outperformance is more pronounced when funds experience large outflows and for large trades in less liquid stocks. Central brokers can deliver superior trade execution compared to peripheral brokers, but mainly for central institutions. We use the collapse of Lehman Brothers as a quasi-natural experiment to establish the likely causality of our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a high-frequency identification approach to document that individual politicians affect asset prices. We exploit the regular flow of viewpoints contained in Congress members' tweets. Supportive (critical) tweets increase (decrease) the stock prices of the targeted firm and the corresponding industry in minutes around the tweet. The bulk of the stock price effects is concentrated in the tweets revealing news about future legislative action. The effects are amplified around committee meeting days, especially when the tweet originates from committee members and influential politicians. Overall, we show that Congress members' social media accounts are an important source of political news. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that larger trades incur lower trading costs in government bond markets ("size discount"), but costs increase in trade size after controlling for client identity ("size penalty"). The size discount is driven by the cross-client variation of larger traders obtaining better prices, consistent with theories of trading with imperfect competition. The size penalty, driven by the within-client variation, is larger for corporate bonds, during major macroeconomic surprises and during COVID-19. These differences are larger among more sophisticated clients, consistent with information-based theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the Global Settlement, analysts extensively use a top pick designation allowing for greater granularity of information among buy recommended stocks, but conflicts of interest can potentially influence this designation. Examining a novel sample of top picks, we find that a calendar-time portfolio of top picks generates an abnormal performance of 17.6% per year. Top picks have greater investment value than do buy recommendations and alternative analyst investment strategies. Both institutional and retail investors trade in response to top picks. However, only institutional investors appear to identify top picks that have greater investment value when they are announced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of short campaigns by hedge funds has dramatically increased over the last two decades. Nearly 80% of campaigns are undertaken by activist hedge funds, particularly those that employ hostile tactics in their long campaigns. Short campaigns are associated with negative abnormal returns of –7%, with aggregate valuation effects similar in magnitude to the gains from long activism campaigns. In contrast to long campaigns, public communication is a critical component of short campaigns. We do not find evidence that such communication is manipulative. Overall, our analysis highlights the importance of short campaigns for understanding the economic impact of activist hedge funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial markets reveal information that firm managers can utilize when making equity value-enhancing investment decisions. However, for firms with risky debt, such investments are not necessarily socially efficient. Despite this friction, we show that learning from prices improves investment efficiency. This effect is asymmetric, however, as investors learn less about projects that decrease the riskiness of cash flows: efficiency is lower for diversifying investments than for focusing (risk-increasing) investments. This also implies that investors' endogenous learning further attenuates risk shifting but amplifies debt overhang. Our model provides a novel channel through which learning from financial markets affects agency frictions between stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid an aging population and a growing role for private equity (PE) in the care of older adults, this paper studies how PE ownership affects U.S. nursing homes using patient-level Medicare data. We show that PE ownership leads to a patient cohort with lower health risk. However, after instrumenting for the patient-nursing home match, we find that PE ownership increases mortality by 11%. Declines in measures of patient well-being, nurse staffing, and compliance with care standards help to explain the mortality effect. Overall, we conclude that PE has nuanced effects with adverse outcomes for a subset of patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identify a novel economic mechanism through which passive ownership positively affects informational efficiency in the cross-section of firms. Passive investors' inelastic demand lowers a firm's cost-of-capital, inducing it to take more risk. The higher cash flow variance, in turn, incentivizes active investors to acquire more precise private information, pushing up price informativeness for firms with high passive ownership. High passive ownership also implies higher stock prices and higher stock-return variances. An increase in the aggregate size of passive investors amplifies these cross-sectional differences. We also document complementarities in firms' real investment and investors' information choices that can cause information crashes. Received May 31, 2020; editorial decision January 4, 2023 by Editor Holger Mueller. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking advantage of the implementation of the 2003 European Commission (EC) directive on financial reporting, we explore the impact of mandatory financial disclosure on mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We find robust evidence that the number (and volume) of private firms becoming an M&A target increases with mandatory disclosure. Analyses of cross-industry differences, deal-level data, and post-deal performance indicate that financial disclosure increases M&A activity by reducing information frictions in the market for corporate control. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using Chinese data, we examine whether synchronous remote board meetings, which facilitate status equalization among directors and alleviate their pressure for conformity, affect board monitoring effectiveness. We find that compared to face-to-face meetings, synchronous remote meetings are associated with directors' better meeting attendance behavior, a higher likelihood of director dissent on monitoring-related proposals, higher forced CEO turnover-performance sensitivity, and more effective investments. These results hold when we use remote meetings that include both synchronous and asynchronous remote meetings. Proposal-director level analysis further shows that remote meetings reduce the pressure to conform faced by young first-term directors and socially connected directors. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of "stimulus checks" to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of retail-dominated portfolios. The Hong Kong payments increased overall turnover and share prices on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. We cannot rule out that these price effects were permanent. The findings raise novel questions about the role of fiscal stimulus in the stock market. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents that U.S. equity returns are large and positive during the opening hours of European markets. These returns are pervasive and highly economically and statistically significant. Consistent with models of inventory risk, we demonstrate a strong relationship with order imbalances at the close of the preceding U.S. trading day. Rationalizing unconditionally positive "overnight drift" returns, we uncover an asymmetric reaction to demand shocks: market sell-offs generate robust positive overnight reversals, while reversals following market rallies are much more modest. We argue that demand shock asymmetry can arise in inventory management models with time-varying market maker risk-bearing capacity. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing AI readership (proxied for by machine downloads and ownership by AI-equipped investors) motivates firms to prepare filings friendlier to machine processing and to mitigate linguistic tones that are unfavorably perceived by algorithms. Loughran and McDonald (2011) and BERT available since 2018 serve as event studies supporting attribution of the decrease in the measured negative sentiment to increased machine readership. This relationship is stronger among firms with higher benefits to (e.g., external financing needs) or lower cost (e.g., litigation risk) of sentiment management. This is the first study exploring the feedback effect on corporate disclosure in response to technology. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the observability of investors' information-acquisition activities in financial markets. Improving observability leads to two strategic effects on information acquisition: (1) the pricing effect, which arises from interactions between investors and the market maker and can encourage or discourage information acquisition, and (2) the competition effect, which concerns interactions among investors and always encourages information acquisition. We apply our theory to study voluntary and mandatory disclosures of corporate site visits. When the competition effect dominates, investors voluntarily disclose their visits. When the pricing effect dominates, mandatory disclosure is effective. Our analysis sheds novel light on Regulation Fair Disclosure. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we find that allowing for nonlinearities significantly increases the out-of-sample performance of option and stock characteristics in predicting future option returns. The nonlinear machine learning models generate statistically and economically sizable profits in the long-short portfolios of equity options even after accounting for transaction costs. Although option-based characteristics are the most important standalone predictors, stock-based measures offer substantial incremental predictive power when considered alongside option-based characteristics. Finally, we provide compelling evidence that option return predictability is driven by informational frictions and option mispricing. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate financial performance (CFP) in listed Korean companies over ten years. The results show a significant positive effect of CSR on CFP in the manufacturing sector, but no notable impact in the non-manufacturing sector. A detailed analysis identifies social contribution as the key driver of this positive effect, while the other CSR sub-categories play a minor role. Higher ownership by majority shareholders and treasury stock is associated with lower CSR. This research enhances understanding of the CSR-CFP link in Korea, offering valuable insights for insiders and investors in decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the presence of psychological barriers both in the main stock market indices of the Baltic states and the most actively traded individual stocks. A psychological barrier refers to a specific price point, often at round numbers (i.e. powers of 10), that investors believe is challenging to breach, influencing their behavior and trading decisions. Design/methodology/approach: We conduct uniformity tests and barrier tests, such as barrier proximity tests and barrier hump tests, to evaluate the presence of psychological barriers. Additionally, we explore variations in means and variances near these potential barriers using regression and GARCH analysis. Findings: The findings reveal that psychological barriers do exist in the Baltic stock markets, particularly within market indices. The Estonian market index stands out with the most pronounced indications of psychological barriers. Individual stocks also display significant changes in means and variances related to potential barriers, albeit with less uniformity. Practical implications: Collectively, our findings challenge the traditional assumption of random returns within the Baltic stock markets. For practitioners, the finding that psychological barriers exist opens up opportunities for investment strategies that can capitalize on them. Originality/value: This study is the first to comprehensively investigate psychological barriers in the Baltic stock markets. Our results provide a valuable contribution to understanding the impact of that phenomenon on pricing dynamics, which is particularly pertinent in less-researched frontier markets like the Baltic states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducts a detailed investigation into the interplay between major sporting events, specifically the ICC Cricket World Cups and FIFA Football World Cups, and their potential impact on the relationship between dividend announcements and stock market returns. Beyond the customary exploration of investor sentiment and its connection to stock market returns, our research thoroughly examines the effects of these significant sports events on the stock market's reaction to dividend announcements. Drawing on extensive FTSE 350 index data spanning January 1990 to December 2021, we employ event study methodology as the primary analytical framework. To bolster the reliability of our findings, we apply the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation method, addressing potential endogeneity concerns. Our results uncover a distinct pattern—the stock market exhibits a less favourable response to dividend increases announced following England's victories in major sporting events, such as the FIFA Football World Cup and ICC Cricket World Cup, compared to instances where they faced defeat. Additionally, we observe a more negative market response to dividend decreases announced following England's losses in these pivotal sporting events, as opposed to England emerging victorious in these key contests. This research contributes valuable insights into the intricate relationship between sports passion and market dynamics, offering implications for both scholarly discourse and investment strategy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The study aims to investigate market reactions associated with the JUST 100 rankings published by JUST Capital, a non-profit organization, as well as differences in financial reporting quality and performance between selected firms and their industry peers. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses a sample of 431 firms selected as the 100 America's Most Just Companies between 2016 and 2020 by JUST Capital. This study performs both an event study to determine whether the rankings are useful to investors and cross-sectional regression analyses on the characteristics of selected firms compared to their peers. Findings: This study finds that investors react positively to selected firms around the time of the release of the JUST 100 rankings, suggesting that the rankings are decision-useful. This study also finds that selected firms exhibit higher accounting quality and financial performance than their peers. Research limitations/implications: Rankings may not be free from bias because of JUST Capital's ownership of an exchange-traded fund. Social implications: The findings validate the rankings as well as the methodology used by JUST Capital, as they show market participants value firms that engage in socially responsible actions through their commitment to positively impact five key stakeholder groups: employees, customers, communities, environment and shareholders. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that shows the importance of the JUST 100 rankings for investment decisions. Considering the growing push for companies to disclose environmental, social and governance (ESG) activities, this study provides evidence to support ESG disclosure regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to measure the degree of volatility comovement between stock market liquidity and informational efficiency across Asia, Europe, North-South America, Africa, and the Pacific Ocean over three decades. In particular, the authors analyze the extent of the time-varying nexus between different aspects of stock market liquidity and multifractal scaling properties of the stock return series across various regions and diversified market conditions. This study further investigates several factors altering the degree of dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between the efficiency and liquidity of the domestic stock markets. Design/methodology/approach: The study measures five aspects of stock market liquidity – tightness, depth, breadth, immediacy, and adjusted immediacy. The authors evaluate the multifractal scaling properties of the stock return series to measure the level of stock market efficiency across the regions and diversified market conditions. The study uses the dynamic conditional correlation-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity framework to quantify the degree of volatility comovement between liquidity and efficiency over the period. Findings: The study finds the presence of stronger volatility comovement between inefficiency and illiquidity due to the price impact characteristics of the stock markets irrespective of different regions and diversified market conditions. The extent of time-variation increased following the shock periods, indicating the significant role of the financial crisis in increasing the volatility comovement between inefficiency and illiquidity. The highest degree of time-varying correlation is observed in the developed stock markets of Northwestern and Northern Europe compared to the regional and emerging counterparts. On the other hand, weak DCCs are observed in the emerging stock markets of Europe. Originality/value: The output of the present study assists investors in identifying diversification opportunities across the regions. Additionally, the study has significant implications for market regulators, aiding in predicting future troughs and peaks. The prediction, in turn, helps formulate capital market development plans during dynamic economic situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I propose a novel measure of information share, termed tail information share (TIS), which focuses on modeling the tail dependence of price innovations using copulas. I discuss its detailed technical properties, including unique identifiability, estimation procedures, and statistical properties. The proposed TIS improves over two commonly used measures by providing meaningful economic rationale and unique identifiability. My simulation studies indicate that TIS can yield more accurate estimates of market-specific contributions to price discovery when tail dependence is present. Additionally, I demonstrate the asymptotic consistency and efficiency of TIS estimators. An empirical illustration is provided using a new dataset of high-frequency crude oil futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present novel, robust methods for inference on market (non-)efficiency, volatility clustering, and nonlinear dependence in financial return series. In contrast to existing methodology, our proposed methods are robust against nonlinear dynamics and tail-heaviness of returns. Specifically, our methods only rely on return processes being stationary and weakly dependent (mixing) with finite moments of a suitable order. This includes robustness against power-law distributions associated with nonlinear dynamic models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility. The methods are easy to implement and perform well in realistic settings. We revisit a recent study by Baltussen, van Bekkum, and Da (2019 , J. Financ. Econ. , 132, 26–48) on autocorrelation in major stock indexes. Using our robust methods, we document that the evidence of the presence of negative autocorrelation is weaker, compared with the conclusions of the original study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twitter's massive data has been intensively explored in the stock market research in recent years as it allows researchers to relate investor sentiment and investor attention to stock performance. However, narrowing down to celebrity-like CEOs, followed by millions, allows more insight to Twitter's usefulness when these CEOs tweet about their company or its products. This study focuses on the effects of such company-oriented tweets on CEOs' companies' stock performance and trading volume. More than 27,000 account-specific tweets are retrieved for 8 CEOs spanning to around 12 years. Event study analysis is performed for stock returns and trading volume change, as it is the most appropriate method used by researchers in similar studies. In the event of an aforementioned tweet, higher stock return volatility is observed in comparison to average volatility. Statistical tests reveal that stock returns and volumes are relatively higher for companies the next day of the said tweet, depicting a relationship between CEO's tweet content and stock performance of companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines whether and to what extent private firms learn from the stock market. Using a large panel data set for the UK, I find that private firms' investment responds positively to the valuation of public firms in the same industry. The sensitivity increases with price informativeness. To further pin down the information channel, I construct a price noise measure based on public firms' unrelated minor segments and show that it positively affects the investment of private firms in the major-segment industry. The results are consistent with models featuring learning from noisy signals and are not driven by alternative channels in the absence of learning. My findings suggest that the stock market can have real effects on private firms through an information-spillover channel, even when these firms do not list their shares on the stock exchanges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a stylized model that generates the following empirical predictions: the less (more) accessible the underlying market is ex ante , the more its liquidity improves (deteriorates) when basket trading becomes available. We empirically test these predictions using corporate bonds before and after the introduction of exchange-traded funds. Consistent with the model's prediction, liquidity improvement is larger for highly arbitraged, low-volume, and high-yield bonds, and for 144A bonds to which retail investor access is prohibited by law. Our article leads to a more nuanced understanding of the impact of basket security introduction than previous research suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the role of logistics information in the stock price discovery process. Using a proprietary dataset on parcel-level express delivery service records from one of the largest express service providers in China, we find that express delivery contains firm-specific information for stock pricing. A long/short portfolio of buying (selling) stocks with high (low) quarterly growth in the number of parcels sent by firms generates an 8.23 percent risk-adjusted annual return. The return predictability is more significantly driven by document, light, and business-to-business parcels, which reflects the intensity of a firm's overall operations (rather than just sales growth), and by parcels sent to new addresses, which represents new business expansion. Echoing this return predictability, parcel growth also predicts firm growth, profitability, and earnings surprises. Finally, we provide evidence on return predictability associated with topology of logistic network identified by parcel delivery data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that short sellers manage risks by strategically borrowing shares in stocks with significant ownership by passive investors. This practice increases securities lending demand for stocks with substantial passive ownership, resulting in improved price efficiency, higher lending fees, and increased short interest in these stocks. Consistent with the risk mitigation motive, these stocks show reduced risks of unexpected fee hikes and loan recall, longer loan durations, and attract more informed short sellers. These effects are particularly pronounced in hard-to-borrow stocks where short-sale constraints are binding. Our study suggests that passive investing helps alleviate short-sale constraints by reducing the risks associated with stock borrowing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the resource curse hypothesis in an oil-dependent economy, Saudi Arabia, through examining the impact of oil price volatility on foreign ownership among Saudi listed firms. Design/methodology/approach: The study analyzes a unique data set of firm-level data on foreign ownership for the period 2009–2015. A multivariate regression model was applied to analyze the relationships under study. Findings: The analysis reveals a negative association between oil price volatility and foreign ownership in firms with high leverage and low stock volatility. Research limitations/implications: Policymakers are encouraged to develop policies to control shocks in the supply and demand of oil and enforce economic diversification. Investors can better understand the dynamics of an oil-based economy stock market based on the investment behavior of foreign investors and their response to oil price shocks. Originality/value: This study adds to the literature by analyzing the relationship understudy in an oil-rich and oil-dependent emerging economy, where its critical economic parameters are influenced by oil price volatility and it has the largest and the most liquid stock exchange in the MENA region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the investment value of information provided by crypto-influencers, that is, social media influencers covering crypto assets on Twitter. We examine the returns associated with approximately 36,000 tweets issued by 180 of the most prominent crypto social media influencers covering over 1,600 crypto assets for the two years spanning through December 2022. Our primary results indicate that crypto-influencers' tweets are initially associated with positive returns. However, these tweets are followed by significant negative longer-horizon returns, suggesting they generate minimal long-term investment value. These effects are most pronounced for tweets issued by crypto-influencers proclaiming to be crypto experts, for smaller cap crypto asset securities and for self-described experts with many Twitter followers. In an additional analysis, we use machine-learning methods to classify tweets and find that this pattern of results strengthens when the tweets have a more positive sentiment or relate to buy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines market reactions to EU-wide insurance stress tests, providing the first analysis of this nature for the insurance sector. Empirical results reveal that earlier tests in 2014 had a limited market impact, while the 2018 stress test garnered slightly stronger but still limited responses. Market reactions in insurance differ from banking stress tests, potentially due to factors such as non-disclosure of individual results and superior capitalization in the insurance sector. The study highlights the potential of EU-wide insurance stress tests to reduce systemic risk, particularly when governance includes stakeholder interaction. The findings emphasize the ongoing need for research on stress test impact, proposing a balance between efficiency and transparency in future designs. The study concludes by advocating for long-term analyses to ensure the robustness of results and exploring evolving trends in EU-wide insurance stress tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines market and future-level sentiment in the Chinese agricultural futures market, distinguishing between contagious and idiosyncratic sentiment. Our analysis reveals that agricultural future-level sentiment is significantly affected by market-level sentiment and domestic stock market sentiment, particularly during bullish market conditions, while global stock market sentiment has minimal impact. Furthermore, we find that both market and future-level sentiment strongly and positively influence futures returns, with contagious and idiosyncratic sentiment exerting favorable influences, particularly in bullish markets. Our findings provide clear evidence of sentiment's impact on agricultural futures returns, offering valuable insights for regulators to identify potential market bubbles and implement effective sentiment regulation measures.

The group of companies formed by Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet have become a successful investment alternative in the U.S. stock market. In this context, the aim of this research is to provide investment strategies based on these companies to the challenge of how individual investors should allocate their funds in a portfolio and outperform benchmarks such as the SPY ETF or a naïve portfolio. To this end, we developed a total of 20 asset allocation models and constructed portfolios with different rebalancing periods between April 2014 and June 2022. Our overall results reveal that a combination of a short window length for estimating the parameters of the asset allocation models and a procedure that takes downside risk into account, more precisely the Lower Partial Moment approach, significantly outperforms the alternative of investing in the SPY ETF and also the naïve portfolio.