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Part 1 Leading indicators: a leading indicator of equipment investment demand in the Italian economy, Paol Carnazza a new look at promptly available leading indicators, John P. Cullity and Philip A. Klein use of leading indicators in a model-based forecast, Henk Kranendonk and Cees Jansen an update of OECD leading indicators, Gerald Petit, Gerard Salou, Pierre Beziz and Christopher Degain. Part 2 Timing of cyclical turning points: confidence and the macroeconomy - a Markov switching model, Roy Batchelor an alternative method to predict the business cycle, Georg Goldrian and Birgit Lehn the timing of M-shaped growth cycles of the German economy, Ernst Helmstadter survey on the timing of cyclical turning points, Rudolf Marty and Bernd Schips. Part 3 Firm behaviour: inflation and asymmetric output adjustment - tests using business survey data, Robert A. Buckle and Jihn A. Carlson production and price flexibility with stock adjustment - South African evidence from survey data, Daniel Marais, Eon Smit and Willie Conradie productivity and prices - testing the relationship using micro data, Julian Peters forecasting models for demand series of private firms - using survey results and dynamic method of econometrics, Kurt Stock survey results relating to changes in the international competitiveness of Belgian manufacturing enterprises, Jean-Jacques Vanhaelen and Chantal Winter. Part 4 Financial indicators: the use of the interest-rate-investment relationship for business cycle forecast - the case of the South African economy, Lorraine Greylings and Gerhardus van Zyl economic policies and business cycles in Germany, Willi Leibfritz and Alexander Juchems an index of leading indicators on inflationary trends and the business cycle, Franz Seitz term structure or money growth as leading indicator of inflation - an empirical analysis for Germany, Jurgen Wolters. Part 5 Economic policy recommendations: aggregate demand and economic growth - empirical evidence from business survey data, Marcella Corsi post-unemployment wages - findings based on the Swiss labour force survey, Monica Curti a time series and cross sectional analysis of consumer sentiment and its components, Detelina Ivanova and Kajal Lahiri a microsimulstion approach for tax and social policy recommendations in the Federal republic of Germany, Gerhard Wagenhals. Part 6 Transition economies: why do the Russian enterprises hoard labour?, Sergei Aukutsionek and Rostislav Kapeliushnikov business cycles in Poland, Zbigniew Matkowski. Part 7 Surveys covering the service sector: first results of the Ifo business survey in the data processing services sector in Western and Eastern Germany, Joachim Gurtler construction of a confidence indicator for retail trade by the European Commission. (Part contents)

Die Entwicklungsgeschichte okonometrischer Makromodelle zeigt gegenwartig einen interessanten Richtungswechsel. Wahrend aufbauend auf die in den funfziger und zu Beginn der sechziger Jahre erschienenen, mit dem Namen Klein1) verbundenen, Veroffentlichungen zunachst nach immer starkerer Disaggregation gestrebt wurde2), zielen Untersuchungen der jungsten Zeit wieder auf Aggregationsmodelle mit weniger Gleichungen3). Diese Aggregationsmodelle sind als Prognose-instrumente konzipiert und haben gemeinsam, das in sie eine Vielzahl von Informationen eingehen, die in die Zukunft weisen.

The key part of this work is an empirical test of the effectiveness of the signaling method in predicting “twin” crises in Croatia. A set of signal indicators obtained by ex-post analysis of banking and currency disturbances in Croatia in 1998 and 1999 surpassed all expectations regarding numerous difficulties in taking over the original “signal” approach, and it can be considered as a fundemental for future research efforts. The ultimative goal of this exercise is to build an effective early warning system for crisis in Croatia.