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Chapter 10 This chapter develops a two-stage game of incomplete information to generate insights about future trajectories of Turkey's EU accession process. It is assumed that Turkey perceives the EU members as divided into two groups: Type 1 and the Type 2. The Type 2 members never endorse Turkish accession whereas the Type 1 members do. The types move in the first period of the game and Turkey reacts in the second. The analysis shows that the Type I's time preferences do not count for its cooperative conduct as long as the new Turkish foreign policy (TFP) continues to improve Turkish power and its reputation, domestic reforms are conducted at a steady rate, and Turkish economy continues to thrive. The future potential issues for Type 1 members are, if the new TFP capsizes, domestic reforms stall, or Turkish economic stability becomes deeply shaken. A successful Turkey can quit the process at the slightest belief that no EU member supports its EU bid. It becomes more prone to perceive the Type 1 as the Type 2. A failing Turkey will in turn leave the accession process if both types defect even if it believes that it interacts with the Type 1.

Semiotics constitutes an untapped and interdisciplinary source of enrichment for the discipline of International Relations (IR) theory. We propose two visual metaphors to that effect to interpret the figure depicting the central claim of structural realism (SR) offered by late Kenneth Waltz who is one of the most disputed, read, and inspiring IR theorists. The figure is the tenor of both metaphors. The vehicles are two paintings by Mark Rothko, namely, “Green and Tangerine on Red” and the “Number 14.” The metaphors generate innumerable meanings for the tenor and eliminate the criticism that SR is a static and an ahistorical theory. Thus, they benefit the Discipline characterised by academic cleavages on the meaning of theory, science, and production of knowledge.

Bu Tez AK Parti dönemi Türk dış politikasını inclemektedir. Soğuk savaş sonrası Türk dış politikası literatürünü özetler ve AK Parti liderlerinin karar alma sürecine dair bir formel model önerir. Bir yöntemsel bir de ampirik soru sormaktadır. Yöntemsel soru Turkiye' nin soğuk savaş sonrası dönemde değişen dış politika yönelimlerini açıklayabilecek çok-düzeyli ve çok-boyutlu değişkenleri entegre eden formel ve bütünsel bir model önermeyi amaçlar. Yöntemsel soruyu Polihöristik Karar Alma Kuramı' nı uygulayarak cevaplar. Ampirik soru ise AK Parti dönemi Türk dış politikasındaki yönelim değişiklerini belirleyen temel etmenleri açıklamaya çalışır. Tez, diğer birtakım etmenlerin yanısıra, Türkiye' nin AB üyeliği beklentisinin, Davutoğlunun stratejik derinlik konusundaki görüşlerinin, dönemin iç politika koşullarının ve AK Parti' nin siyasi arkaplanının değişen dış politika yönelimlerini etkileyen temel etmenler olduğunu öne sürer.Anahtar Kelimeler: Formel modelleme, Türk dış politikcası, Karar alma süreci, Polihöristik kuram, AK Parti This thesis analyzes Turkish foreign policy in the AKP (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi- Justice and Development Party) era. It summarizes the post-Cold War Turkish foreign policy literature and proposes a formal model of the AKP leaders? decision-making process. The thesis asks one methodological and one empirical question. The methodological question aims at proposing a formal and holistic model integrating multi-level and multi-dimensional variables to explain the shifting foreign policy orientations of Turkey in the post-Cold War era. The application of Poliheuristic (PH) decision-making Theory is proposed as an answer to this question. The empirical question aims at explaining the major factors that determined the foreign policy orientation and re-orientation of Turkey in the AKP period. The thesis argues that, among others, the prospect of EU membership; the impact of Ahmet Davutoğlu and his arguments on Turkey?s ?strategic depth?; the domestic political conditions of the period; and the political background of the AKP have been the major determinants of these shifting foreign policy orientations.Keywords: Formal modeling, Turkish foreign policy, Decision-Making, Poliheuristic Theory, the AKP 114