Search

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) In this study, we employ that panel unit root tests can be arranged in groups by cross-section dependence or independence, heterogeneous or homogenous unit roots to examine the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis in Turkey, among trading partners. Using monthly observations of the period from January 2003 to December 2010 in a panel date framework of currencies of the eight largest-trading partner countries of Turkey, we find that panel unit root tests are not rejected the mean-reversion of real exchange rates. Thus, the empirical results give significant support for the purchasing power parity holds in Turkey among trading partners.

This paper examines competitiveness of the Turkish Economy over the period 1996-2015. The analysis of the paper includes the periods of the “Great Trade Collapse”and the “Eurozone Debt Crisis” and aims to determine whether impacts of theexternal shocks on the comparative advantage index -that is calculated against thelargest trading partners of Turkey- are permanent or temporary. In this context,considering the foreign trade data for the period from 1996 to 2015, we identify thelargest 10 trading partners and find that there is a cross-sectional dependence amongthe comparative advantage indexes. The results of the “second generation” panelunit root tests, which take cross-sectional dependence into account, indicate thatthe external shocks sound persistent effects on the competitiveness of the Turkisheconomy. Furthermore, the analysis of the manufacturing sector indicates that a 1%increase in the labor productivity leads to a 3.5% increase in the export performance., Bu çalışma 1996-2015 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisinin rekabet gücünü incelemektedir. Bu çalışmada yapılan analiz, “Büyük Ticaret Çöküşü” ve “Avro Bölgesi Borç Krizi” olarak adlandırılan dönemleri de içeren bir biçimde, dış şokların en büyük ticari ortaklara karşı hesaplanan “Mukayeseli Üstünlük İndeksleri” üzerindeki etkisinin kalıcı olup olmadığının saptanmasını hedeflemektedir. Bu bağlamda 1996-2015 dönemi dış ticaret verileri dikkate alınarak Türkiye’nin en büyük ticari ortağı olan 10 ülke tespit edilmiş ve “Mukayeseli Üstünlük İndeksleri” arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının var olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan “ikinci nesil” panel birim kök test sonuçları ise ilgili dönemde meydana gelen şokların, Türkiye ekonomisinin rekabet gücü üzerinde kalıcı etkiler bıraktığını göstermektedir. İmalat sanayi sektörü üzerine yapılan ampirik analizde ise, emek verimliliğindeki 1% artışın ihracat performansını 3.5% arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz piyasalarında etkinlik ve beklentiler kavramlarına yönelik tanımlamaları gözden geçirmek ve elde edilen ampirik bulgular üzerine bir literatür taraması sunmaktır. Çalışmada, döviz piyasalarında etkinlik ölçütlerinden başlayarak beklentiler kavramı ele alınmış ve ilgili tanımlamalara ait ampirik bulguları ele alan literatür özellikle gelişmiş ülkeler bakımından incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda ele alınan hipotezler ampirik olarak birbirinden farklı birçok ekonometrik ve istatistiki yöntemler ile test edilebileceğinden, bu çalışmanın uluslararası iktisat ve uluslararası finans literatüründe ilgili konular ile ilgilenen araştırmacılara fayda sağlayabileceği düşünülmektedir., This paper aims to overview the definitions of efficiency and expectations in exchange rate markets and to present a literature review on the empirical findings. For this purpose, the paper starts from the efficiency measures in exchange rate markets and briefly examines the basic concepts in general and overviews the empirical findings for advanced economies in particular. In this context, this paper provides a comparative analysis to researchers, who are interested in the related subjects in international economics and international finance.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) This paper empirically examines short-and long-run relationships between foreign direct investments (FDI) and volatility of foreign portfolio investments (FPI) in 12 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We use the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models to calculate volatility of the FPIs. We utilize the second generation panel unit root test, panel-Wald causality test procedure and panel cointegration analysis allowing for structural breaks, and cross-sectional dependence. The results strongly suggest that a decrease in FPI volatility is followed by an increase in FDI in the long-run, and this indicates economies that advance in capital liberalization benefit from increases in FDI. However, the relationship in opposite direction in the long-run is valid in only half of the countries studied. In short-run, we observe that the former relationship is valid only in Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Lithuania; where the latter is valid only in Latvia.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) As an emerging economy, Turkey has suffered from high unemployment rate, as well as major discrepancies among regional unemployment rates, even in the periods of rapid economic growth. In this study, we mainly investigate the unemployment persistence at the regional level for Turkey, and we apply recent and powerful Panel-based Unit Root (PUR) tests, when the panels have small time series dimensions and cross-sections in highly persistent data. Results from the PUR tests clearly show that the existence of the unemployment persistence in most of the regional unemployment rates of Turkey. By using same PUR tests, we also test the possible divergence in regional inflation rates in same data for evaluating further monetary policy implications. Our findings show that national monetary policy can efficiently impacts on most of Turkish regions.

This paper investigates the short-time exchange rate predictability in a developed and in an emerging market, and for this purpose we consider the Euro/United States Dollar (EUR/USD) and the United States Dollar/Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) exchange rates. We apply the benchmark test and compare the results of daily out-of-sample forecasting by Brownian Motion (BM), Geometric Brownian. Motion (GBM), Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Mean-reversion (OUM), Jump Diffusion (JD) stochastic processes, Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UCIP) against the Random Walk (RW). We conclude that none of these models or stochastic processes displays superiority over the RW model in forecasting the USD/TRY exchange rate. However, GBM, BM and OUM processes beat the RW model in forecasting the EUR/USD, exchange rate. Furthermore, we show that these findings are robust and not time-specific. When we separately examine the pre-crisis and the post-crisis periods, results remain unchanged.

There is a widespread literature to investigate the relations among increasing trade, economic growth and development; however the relationship between trade and regional development is remained inconsiderable. The aim of this study is, to investigate the interrelationship between trade and regional development in Turkey. Therefore firstly, regional development index is defined for 81 provinces of Turkey for the period from 2002 to 2008. This definition is based on the concept and calculation method of Human Development Index (HDI) of United Nations Development Programme. HDI is taken as a basis because it is a composite measure of education, health, and income. Health and education data used in this paper are Regional Statistics of Turkish Statistical Institute. However, GDP/GDP per capita data are not available for provinces for the period under concern. Several studies obviously show that there is a causality relationship between GDP and energy consumption. Thus, energy consumption statistics are used instead of income data. The seminal approaches of uniform and heterogeneous intra-national space of urban systems (and new economic geography models are considered to be worthwhile. To show the relationship between regional development index and share of volume of trade and between regional development index and trade openness, these approaches are utilized within generalized method of moments procedure in a panel data framework. Accordingly we use three dummy variables as endogenous or exogenous, namely large city, port and border provinces. The empirical findings show that the increases in trade openness are positively associated with future increases in regional development. As a result, large cities have a positive effect in this relationship, while the dummy variables of port and border provinces have not found statistically significant. The link between share of volume of trade and regional development is found out negative, merely when the approach of uniform intra-national space of new economic geography model is considered in our estimation. Furthermore, the results of panel causality tests, the share of volume of trade significantly causes regional development. On the other hand, there is a bilateral causality relationship between regional development and trade openness.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) -- Pişkin, Ali (Dogus Author) Çalışmada, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu tarafından Düzey 2 olarak belirtilmiş olan yirmi altı bölge için 2004–2009 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak bölgelerin işsizlik oranı ile Türkiye’nin dış ticaretinden aldıkları pay arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Buna göre, bölgelerin dış ticaretten aldıkları pay, o bölgeye ait olan illerin ilgili yıllardaki dış ticaret hacminin Türkiye’nin dış ticaret hacmine olan oranını ifade etmektedir. Tahminlerin tutarlı ve etkin olabilmesi için gerekli testlerin yapılarak varsayımların kontrol edilmesinden sonra Sabit Etkili Panel Veri ve Genelleştirilmiş Momentler yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak bölgeler arasındaki işsizliğin belirlenmesinde, bir dönem önceki işsizlik oranı ile ilgili dönem işsizlik oranı arasında aynı yönlü bir ilişkinin olduğu; bununla birlikte bölgenin dış ticaretten aldığı pay arttığında işsizlik oranının azaldığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca Eylül 2008 döneminden itibaren etkisini göstermeye başlayan küresel finansal krizi ve sınır ticareti yapan illeri gösteren gölge değişkenlerin de anlamlı olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. In the study, the relationship between unemployment rates of regions of Turkey and regions’ share in trade volume are analyzed by taking into account annual data of 26 regions that are defined as NUTS2 by Turkish Statistical Institute for the period of 2004-2009. The share of regions in trade volume denotes rate of trade volumes of the cities included by the region in Turkey’s total trade volume. After the necessary tests are applicated to satisfy assumptions, fixed effect panel data and generalized method of moments are used for consistent and efficient estimation. In conclusion, in determining unemployment rates of the regions, positive correlation is found between lag of unemployment rates and related periods’ unemployment rates. Meanwhile, when shares of the regions in trade volume increase, unemployment rates decrease. Also the dummy variables that are indicating the financial global crisis and border trading regions effect after September 2008 are significant.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) -- Erzurumlu, Yaman Ö. (Dogus Author) Following the liberalization of financial markets, Goldstein and Razin (2006) show that there is an information based trade-off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment, our paper examines the causality relations between foreign direct investment and volatility of foreign portfolio investment. Utilizing monthly and quarterly data set of Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey, volatility of portfolio investments, which indicated evidence of ARCH effects for all four countries, have been estimated by best fitting GARCH (p,q) models. Further, potential causality has been examined by Granger (1969), Sims (1972) and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test methods. Results indicated that, for Russia and Turkey foreign direct investment has a significant cause on portfolio investment volatility. However for Czech Republic and Poland, there is no such significant relationship has been found. Finally further investigation of a possible structural break due to EU membership could not provide such evidence for Czech Republic and Poland in related variables.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) -- Conference full title: 2010 International Conference on Applied Economics, 26–28 August 2010, Athens, Greece. Since the first half of the 1990‘s many developing countries liberalizing their financial systems began to be more integrated to the global financial system. Due to the financial crisis, many developing countries have shifted to floating exchange rate regime. Thus, the significance of exchange rates has increased dramatically for the individual and institutional investors in the financial markets. Therefore, the number of studies which focus on forecasting the currency exchange rates increased dramatically. In this study, USDTL and Euro-TL exchange rate forecasts are generated via fundamental stochastic processes based on random walk or martingale, forward rates and the some time series models. The error performance values of the obtained results are tested via the test method developed by Diebold and Mariano (1995) and West (1996). It can be concluded that stochastic processes outperformed time series models for USD-TL exchange rates. According to the results stochastic process are generating more consistent and significant results.

Bu çalışma birer gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan piyasa örneğinde döviz kurlarının kısa dönemdeki öngörülebilirliğini incelemektedir. USD/TL ve EUR/USD parite değerlerinin günlük verileri kullanılarak stokastik süreçlerin, zaman serilerinin, ekonometrik yaklaşımların ve yapısal modellerin örneklem dışı tahmin değerleri için performans analizinde bulunulmuştur.Elde edilen ampirik bulgular göre, USD/TL parite tahminlerinde hiçbir model veya süreç Basit Rassal Yürüyüş modelinden anlamlı bir biçimde daha iyi sonuç elde edememiştir. Ancak EUR/USD parite değerlerinde Geometrik Brownian Motion, Mean-reversion ve Brownian Motion süreçleri Basit Rassal Yürüyüş modelinden anlamlı bir biçimde daha iyi sonuç elde edebilmiştir. Ayrıca elde edilen bulguların sağlam olduğu ve kriz dönemi ve kriz sonrası dönemler temel alındığında da bulgularda bir değişim olmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. This study investigates the short-time exchange rate predictability in a developed and an emerging market, and for this purpose USD/TRY and EUR/USD exchange rates are considered. The daily out-of-sample forecasting results are benchmarked by stochastic processes, time series, econometrics approaches and structural models.The empirical findings indicate that none of these models or processes display superiority over the Simple Random Walk model in forecasting the USD/TRY exchange rate. However, Geometric Brownian Motion, Brownian Motion and Mean-reversion processes beat the Simple Random Walk model in forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate. Furthermore, these findings are robust and not time- specific. It is observed that results remain unchanged when the pre-crisis and the post-crisis periods are examined separately. 270

Forward, futures ve opsiyon sözleşmeleri, finansal türev piyasalarda riskten korunma ve spekülasyon amacı ile en fazla kullanılan enstrümanlardır. Bu sözleşmelerin kullanım amaçları benzer olmasına rağmen teoride ve işleyiş biçiminde birtakım farklar bulunmaktadır. Bu noktada bir sözleşmenin ilgili varlık üzerine uygulanması, sözleşmenin tarafları açısından belli sonuçlar doğuracaktır. Bu sonuçların en önemlisinin vade boyunca veya vade sonunda oluşacak kâr veya zarar olduğu söylenebilir.Bu çalışmada, döviz üzerine yapılan forward, futures, call opsiyon ve put opsiyon sözleşmelerinin, 6 aylık vadeler için, birbirini takip eden beş dönemdeki fiyatları bulunarak sözleşmenin alıcı tarafı açısından ilgili dönemlerdeki kâr-zararları hesaplanmıştır. Söz konusu dönemlerdeki kâr-zararların ortaya çıkmasında, sözleşmenin alıcı tarafının fiyat hareketlerindeki değişim yönünü doğru tahmin edebilmesinin oldukça önemli olduğu ve kâr-zararların, portföyün yönetimine bağlı olarak değişkenlik gösterdiği görülmüştür. Forward, futures and options contracts are most favoured instruments on financial derivatives markets, which are using for hedging and speculation. Although intended use of these contracts are similar, theory and processing pattern occurs some differences. At that point, implementation of a contract on underlying asset will be produced obvious conclusion on privies in respect to contract. It can be said that the most crucial conclusion of that; profit or loss, which are consisting during the life of the contract or on maturity date.In this study, priceses are given by forward, futures, call option and put option contracts on currency, which for 6 months maturity and consecutive five periods; in terms of buyer profits and losses are calculated for related periods. It has seen that for a profit or loss which are based on named periods, it is considerably important to form a correct estimate of the way of price movement by buyer; and profits or losses are pointing out variability depending on portfolio management. 233

Türkiye komşu ülkeleri ile birçok sektörde ticari ilişkileri olan dünyanın en büyük 17. ekonomisidir. Türkiye-Rusya ilişkileri uluslararası politikada önemli bir yere sahiptir. Rusya, Türkiye'nin hem ekonomik hem de siyasi anlamda en önemli komşularından biridir. Türkiye'nin ihracat ve ithalat rakamları incelendiğinde bu durum daha iyi anlaşılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada nitel araştırma yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), Ticaret Bakanlığı ve Enerji ve Tabii Bakanlığı gibi resmi kuruluşların verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Türkiye'nin enerji ihtiyaçlarının önemli bir bölümünü Rusya'dan ithal etmesi, karşılıklı bağımlılık yaklaşımı çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda, iki ülke arasındaki son yılların dış ticaret verileri dikkate alınmış ve özellikle ihracat ve ithalat seyri ve bunların hangi sektörlerde ne oranda yapıldığı değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca yakın dönemde yaşanan uçak krizinin dış ticaret üzerindeki etkilerine de değinilmiştir. Sonuç olarak iki ülke arasındaki enerji bağımlılığı ve yaşananların dış ticaret üzerinde etkili olduğu gözlenmiştir. Uçak krizi sonrası Rusya ve Türkiye arasında siyasi ilişkiler oldukça gergin bir hal almış ve bunun devamında Türkiye'ye Rusya tarafından, başta turizm alanında olmak üzere çeşitli yaptırımlar uygulanmıştır. İlerleyen dönemlerde normalleşme yolunda adımlar atılmış olsa da bu durumun olumsuz etkilerinin halen devam ettiği ifade edilebilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Türkiye, Rusya, Uçak Krizi, Turizm, Dış Ticaret, İhracat, İthalat, Enerji, Karşılıklı Bağımlılık. Turkey is the world's 17th largest economy within commercial relationships with its neighboring countries in many sectors. Turkey-Russia relations have an important place in international politics. Russia is Turkey's one of the most important neighbors, both economically and politically, especially when Turkey's exports and imports data, are examined. In this study, the quantitive research method is used, and the data are collected from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), the Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Energy and Nature. Turkey imports a significant portion of their energy needs from the Russian Federation, and this situation is examined within the framework of interdependence approach. In this context, the recent foreign trade data between these two countries have been analyzed, and the process of exports and imports between Turkey and Russia have been evaluated. Also, the effects of the recent aircraft crisis on foreign trade have been considered. Looking at the structure of the international trade between these two neighboring countries, the energy dependence of Turkey has been observed. After the aircraft crisis, political relations between Russia and Turkey have taken quite a tense state, and following this, various sanctions were applied by Russia in multiple sectors, including the tourism sector. Although steps towards normalization have been taken the event afterward, we can indicate that the adverse effects of this action on political relations seem to be still going on today.Keywords: Turkey, Russia, Aircraft Crises, Tourism, International Trade, Exports, Imports, Energy, Interdependence. 116

Günümüzde, küresel kalkınma olarak da bilinen uluslararası kalkınma, uluslararası ölçekte yahut genel olarak küresel bir hedef olarak gelişme düzeyiyle ilintilidir. Gelişmiş ülkeler için küresel hedef geleneği, çoğunlukla gelişmekte olan veya az gelişmiş ülkelerin küresel pazarda hayatta kalmasına, hatta dünyanın devlet sınırları dahilindeki entegrasyonu için desteklenmesine yardımcı olmaktadır. Ancak bugün, dünyanın gelişmekte olan bir bölümü uluslararası ekonomik meselelerde kilit rol oynamaya başlamıştır. Bunlar, diğer gelişmiş ülkelerle rekabet edebileceklerini gösterebilmekte ve ekonomik güçlerini kanıtlamaya çalışmaktadırlar.Bugünlerde küresel ekonomik alanda, ekonomik büyüme, ülkelerin ekonomik göstergelerinde en çok izlenen husus olma özelliğine sahiptir. Ekonomik büyüme ile ilgili ilk literatür, süreci fiziksel sermaye birikimi ile tanımlamıştır. Bununla birlikte, 20. yüzyılın sonlarında ekonomiler, işgücü ekonomisinde belirlenmiş beceri / karakteristik bakış açısına göre işçilerin üretkenliğini arttırabilmek için standart bir yaklaşım olarak beşeri sermayelerini kullanmaktadır. Yükseköğrenim, hem şahıslar hem de işyerleri için beşeri sermaye yatırımının en önemli unsurlarından biri olarak görülen ve zaman ve maliyet bakımından beşeri sermayeye yapılan önemli bir yatırım şeklidir.Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ve Endonezya örnekleri esas alınarak yükseköğrenimin ekonomik büyümedeki rolünü tanımlamaktır. Bu son on yıl boyunca hem Endonezya hem de Türkiye, G20 üyesi ülkelere katılarak ekonomik güçlerini göstermişlerdir. Dahası, bu çalışmada bahsi geçen ülkelerin, yükseköğrenimin beşeri sermaye için bir yatırım aracı olarak nasıl kullandıklarını teorik ve pratik olarak incelenmektedir. Bu tezde, yükseköğretimin mevcut durumunu ve ekonomik büyümeyi birlikte açıklayarak, bu örneklerin eylemlerini nasıl açıkladığı analiz edilmektedir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Beşeri Sermaye, Yükseköğrenimin Rolü, Ekonomik Büyüme, Türkiye, Endonezya. Currently, international development or also known as global development is concerning to level of development in international scale or as a widely global target. The tradition of the common goal of the developed countries is mostly helping to support the developing country or least developed country to survive on the worldwide market or even the integration of the world across the state border. However, today in some part of the developing world are starting to play a crucial role in international economic issues. Those can show their economic power to compete with the other developed countries.Currently, economic growth is the most-watched for the economic indicator of the countries. The early literature on economic growth identified the process with the accumulation of physical capital. However, lately in 20th century the economies use of human capital as a standard approach in labour economics view of set skill/characteristic can increase worker's productivity. Higher education is a form of investment in human capital in regards to time and cost which is seen as one of the essential elements of human capital investment, both for individuals and for workplaces.The objective of this thesis is to describe the role of higher education for economic growth in the sample of Turkey and Indonesia. Both Indonesia and Turkey during this last decade are showing their economic power by being the G20 member countries. Furthermore, we will examine theoretically and practically on how this countries role their higher education as an investment for their human capital. In this thesis, by describing the current condition of higher education and economic growth together will see how this sample explains their act of it.Keywords: Human Capital, Role of Higher Education, Economic Growth, Turkey, Indonesia. 127

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) The paper examines the price volatility spillovers among the crude oil, soybeans, corn, wheat, and sugar futures markets over the period 1/1/2006–11/29/2013. We separately investigate the periods of the pre-crisis, the crisis, and the post-crisis in financial markets. We use the Yang-Zhang estimators for the historical volatility and find that there is a volatility sprawl from the crude oil to corn markets. T ere is also bi-directional causality between the corn and soybeans markets. In addition, we observe significant volatility spillovers from both the soybeans and the corn markets to the wheat markets. The results are also valid in a different sub-period analysis.

Şüphesiz, uluslararası müdahale, uluslararası ilişkiler teorisinde en tartışılankonulardan biri olmuştur. Dolayısıyla, bu entelektüel tartışmada birçok farklı tanım veyorum yapılmıştır. İnsani müdahale çok karmaşık bir kavramdır, çünkü bir yandanegemen bir devlete uluslararası müdahaleyi ve son çare olarak savaşı içermektedir. Öteyandan, sivillerin sistematik bir şiddet ile karşı karşıya kaldıklarında, yabancı aktörlerinyani devletlerin, egemenliğe bakılmaksızın müdahalede bulunmaları gerektiğisavunulmaktadır.İnsani müdahaleye veya Koruma Sorumluluğu (R2P) doktrinine dayanan çeşitliuluslararası müdahaleler yapılmıştır. En çok tartışılan uluslararası müdahalelerden ikisiKosova (1999) ve Libya (2011) vakalarıdır. Elbette ki her iki olaydan da sayısız anlamlıders çıkarılabilir. Her şeyden önce, bu müdahalelerin her ikisi de çoğunlukla Batıdevletlerin yer aldığı NATO liderliğindeki bir koalisyon tarafından planlanmış veyürütülmüştür. Ayrıca, bu uluslararası müdahaleler, ilkeler ve değerler adına yapılansavaşlar olarak ilan edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Kosova'ya İlişkin BağımsızUluslararası Komisyon tarafından hazırlanan Kosova Raporuna göre Yugoslavyaüzerindeki NATO savaşı yasadışı ancak meşru olarak belirlenmiştir. Aksine, 2011yılındaki Libya müdahalesi Birleşmiş Milletler Güvenlik Konseyi'nin 1973 tarihliKararı ile yürütülmüştür.Bu tezin amacı, insani müdahale veya Koruma Sorumluluğu doktrini adına yapılanuluslararası müdahalenin gerçek anlamı ve uygulanmasıyla ilgilidir. Bu çalışmanınodak noktası, uluslararası müdahalenin teorik ve pratik çerçevesidir. Bu tezde, askeriuluslararası müdahale öncesinde, sırasında ve sonrasında Kosova ve Libya'daki tarihive siyasi koşullar incelenmektedir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Uluslararası Müdahale, İnsani Müdahale, R2P, Kosova, Libya. Undoubtedly, international intervention has been one of the most hardly debated topicswithin international relations theory. Therefore, many different definitions andinterpretations were drawn from this intellectual discussion. The humanitarianintervention is a very complex concept because, on the one hand, it consists of theinternational intervention and war – as the last resort – in a sovereign state. On theother hand, it has been argued that foreign actors, i.e. states, should intervene regardlessof sovereignty when civilians are faced with systematic violence.There have been several international interventions based upon the humanitarianintervention or Responsibility to Protect doctrine (R2P). Two of the most debatedinternational intervention cases are Kosovo (1999) and Libya (2011). Surely, countlessmeaningful lessons can be learned from both cases. First of all, both of theseinterventions were planned and carried out by a NATO-led coalition – predominantlyWestern states. Additionally, these international interventions were loudly proclaimedas wars fought in the name of principles and values. However, according to the KosovoReport prepared by the Independent International Commission on Kosovo, the NATOwar over Yugoslavia was named illegal but legitimate. On the contrary, the 2011military intervention in Libya was conducted under the United Nations SecurityCouncil Resolution 1973.The objective of this thesis is to deal with the true meaning of the internationalintervention – whether carried out in the name of humanitarian intervention or R2Pdoctrine – and its implementation. The main focus of this work is the theory and praxisof international intervention. In this thesis, the historical and political circumstances inKosovo and Libya, before, during and after the international military intervention willbe analyzed.Key Words: International Intervention, Humanitarian Intervention, R2P, Kosovo,Libya. 103

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) This paper empirically examines causality relationship between economic growth and domestic credit in the economic globalization in 58 developed and developing countries over the period 1970-2010. We use the asymmetric Granger causality test that is based on modified Wald test statistics within bootstrapped critical values. We find a significant causality from domestic credit to economic growth only in seven developing countries. Furthermore, there is a unidirectional causality from economic growth to domestic credit in five developed and 10 developing economies.

This paper empirically examines the determinants of domestic credit expansion across a wide range of 24 emerging market economies. We use a dynamic panel data estimation technique to investigate the short-run and long-run effects of internal demand and external supply factors, external balance, different measures of trade openness and global uncertainty on domestic credit. We find that loose monetary policy in the domestic market, differences between domestic and global lending rates and real trade openness positively contribute to domestic credit levels. The findings also show that external balance and perceptions of global tail risk negatively affect domestic credit levels.

Recent and ongoing literature strongly implies the existence of a significant and robust impact of trade openness (liberalisation) and globalisation on unemployment, particularly in developed economies. This paper empirically investigates the impacts of four different measures of trade openness and globalisation on the unemployment rate in an unbalanced panel framework. The analysis focuses on the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). Robust empirical findings from panel data estimates demonstrate that, along with macroeconomic indicators and market size, all the measures of trade openness and globalisation are significantly and negatively associated with the unemployment rate. Therefore, we conclude that the continuation of the globalisation process instead of protectionism is of great importance in reducing the unemployment rate in developed economies.

This paper aims to investigate stochastic properties of the consumption-income ratios in eleven central and eastern European (CEE) countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The heterogeneous panel unit root tests are used to account for cross-sectional dependence and the Modified Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test over the period March 1997 - September 2012. The half-lives are also calculated as to find the strong mean-reversion in the consumption-income ratio for nine of eleven CEE economies; and the exceptions are Croatia and Slovenia. In other words, empirical findings provide significant support for the existence of hypothesis that the consumption-income ratio is a mean reversion. Accordingly, the policy implications have permanent effects on the consumption of households only in Croatia and Slovenia.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) This paper examined the relationship between the equity indices in the BRIC economies and oil prices for the period from September 22,1997 to November 29,2013. We focused on various sub-periods to obtain statistically robust and economically solid relationships and to address cross-sectional dependence among stock market indices and oil prices in panel data techniques. For this purpose, we developed a test framework that made use, in a sequential order, of the second generation panel unit root test, the panel cointegration technique accounting for multiple structural breaks, the panel-Granger causality test, and the panel dynamic ordinary least square estimations to analyze the possible interactions. The results showed that there is a long-run positive relationship between the stock market indices and the oil prices only after fall 2008 in the panel framework. We analyzed the related period for each country in detail, and found that oil prices have positive effects on the equity indices in Russia, China, and India. Our findings also indicated that there is a causality relationship that runs from the oil prices to the stock markets' indices in China and India, and there is a pair-wise causality between the equity indices and the oil prices in the Russian economy.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) This chapter reviews the financial crisis of 2008-09 and its impacts on the international trade in terms of regionalism and globalism. The chapter glances over different aspects of globalism and regionalism as well as looks on historical pattern and recent developments of regionalism and globalism. The data used in the chapter indicates that the financial crisis of 2008-09 negatively affected both globalization and regionalization trends. In addition, the EU has experienced an interesting transformation from regionalism to globalism. This chapter suggests that the issue is not only related with the great trade collapse of 2008-09 but also the sovereign debt crisis of 2010-12.

Th e paper examines a systematic interrelationship between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices, taking the role of the USD and the perceived global market risks into consideration for the period from January 1990 to June 2013. Th e authors initially determine the signifi cant cross-sectional dependence in a large balanced panel framework for 27 commodity prices, and then apply the second generation panel unit root (PUR) tests. Findings from the PUR tests clearly suggest that there is a strong unit root in agricultural commodity prices. In addition, the empirical fi ndings from the fi xed eff ects panel data, panel co-integration analysis, the Panel-Wald Causality tests, and the common correlated eff ects mean group estimations strongly show that the world oil price and the weak USD have positive impacts on almost all agri- cultural commodity prices. Th ere are also retained the adjuvant eff ects of the escalatory perceived global market risk upon most agricultural commodity prices.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) Bu çalışmanın amacı döviz kurunun belirlenmesine yönelik mevcut teorileri gözden geçirmek ve elde edilen ampirik bulgular üzerine bir literatür taraması sunmaktır. Çalışmada, ilk Klasik ve Keynesyen yaklaşımlardan başlayarak literatürdeki temel modeller kısaca incelenmiş ve bu modellerin tahmin performanslara ait literatür özellikle gelişmiş ülkeler bakımından ele alınmıştır. Bu bağlamda ele alınan çalışmalarda ampirik olarak çok farklı ekonometrik ve istatistiki yöntemlerin kullanıldığı ve birbirinden çok farklı ampirik bulguların elde edildiği gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın uluslararası iktisat ve uluslararası finans literatüründeki ilgili konulara ilgilenen araştırmacılara fayda sağlayabileceği düşünülmektedir. This paper aims to survey the recent literature on the theoretical models of the exchange rate determination and to present a detailed literature review on the empirical findings for the exchange rate predictability. In this study, starting from the early Classical and the Keynesian models, we briefly overview the fundamental approaches in general and to explain the literature on the exchange rate markets in developed economies in particular. In this context, we observe that the related topic is empirically analyzed via various econometric and statistical techniques. There are also various empirical findings, which are different from each other. This paper avails to researchers, who are interested in the related subjects in international economics and international finance.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) This study investigates whether stochastic properties of the unemployment rate in ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE) countries: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia can be explained by the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment or the hysteresis hypotheses. We primarily show the cross-sectional dependence in unemployment rates, and then apply panel-based unit root tests that take cross-section dependence into account. The empirical findings indicate that there is no mean-reverting process in unemployment rates for ten CEE countries. Thus the results provide evidences for validity of the hysteresis hypothesis—unemployment persistence—in related CEE countries.

Oktay, Ertan (Dogus Author) -- Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) This study attempts to estimate disaggregated import demand functions for Turkey, for the period from 1989 to 2012 in quarterly data set. In this context, we examine short-run and long-run disaggregated import demand functions for capital goods, intermediate inputs and consumption goods by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares. Besides gross domestic product (GDP) and real effective exchange rates: the impacts of seasonality, time trend, the periods of floating exchange regime, and the great global recession are also taken into account in the estimations. The empirical findings indicate that possible deprecation of the Turkish Lira has limited effects on all disaggregated import goods. GDP. as the main determinant of disaggregated import demand, has the biggest impact on capital goods in the short-run and on consumption goods in the long-run. We also check the robustness of our findings by using some proxy variables, such as gross fixed capital formation, exports and domestic credits, and find more or less similar results.

This paper investigates whether the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis holds in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland by considering currencies of their five largest trading partners. We employ eight panel unit root tests that can be arranged in groups by cross-section independence or dependence. Empirical findings show that the stochastic behavior of real exchange rates in the Czech Republic and Poland is not a mean reversion, and the PPP condition does not hold for them. However, we obtain mixed empirical evidence in Hungary. Limited evidence is found for validity of the PPP hypothesis among currencies of Hungary's largest trading partners.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) By using the daily values of USD-TL and Euro-TL denominated European call and put option contracts, which are traded in the over-the-counter market, this study investigates whether there is a significant difference among the premiums of the contracts forecasted by historical volatility, EWMA( λ =0.94 and λ =0.97), GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(p, q) models. In order to test the significance of the difference among particular volatility series forecasted by these different methods, test techniques suggested by Diebold and Mariano (1995) and West (1996) are used. Accordingly, the findings indicate that the differences in the pricing of the USD-TL and Euro-TL denominated call-put option contracts are statistically significant for some volatility forecasting methods.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) In this paper, we employ some front page panel unit root tests to examine the validity of the purchasing power parity hypothesis in Turkey. Using monthly observations panel data of nine major county's currency dates January 2003 through April 2010, we find that panel unit root tests rejected the mean-reversion of real exchange rates. Thus, the empirical results indicate significant support for the purchasing power parity holds in Turkey.

Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) This paper analyzes the impact of volatility in the world energy price on aggregate economic activity in an unbalanced panel data framework for 10 developing Asian countries: Bangladesh, PR China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam. We use both the realized volatility and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models to measure the volatility in the world energy price. Empirical findings from dynamic panel data estimations show that the volatility in world energy price is negatively associated with the aggregate economic activity. Using the common correlated effects panel estimation techniques, we also systematically examine uncertain transmission channel of the world energy price volatility on the aggregate economic activity in each economy and obtain the most impressive negative effects in Turkey, PR China and India, respectively.