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La frammentazione della produzione a livello globale richiede una misurazione del commercio in termini di valore aggiunto che tenga conto di come parti di valore contenuto nei beni e servizi sono aggiunte in ciascuna fase dei processi produttivi all’interno delle catene globali del valore. La qualità degli indicatori relativi al commercio in valore aggiunto dipende dalla qualità delle sottostanti tavole globali di Input-Output che a loro volta dipendono dalla qualità e disponibilità delle statistiche nazionali che ne sono alla base così come dalle tecniche di bilanciamento e stima usate nella procedura di armonizzazione. Nonostante le statistiche in valore aggiunto siano ampliamente utilizzate nella ricerca economica, non vi è coerenze tra le diverse banche dati né una procedura unica e condivisa nella costruzione dei dati su cui il commercio in valore aggiunto è stimato. Questo lavoro rappresenta un tentativo di sistematizzare le potenziali fonti di differenze tra le banche dati globali e di mostrare la risultante deviazione nelle stime degli indicatori di partecipazione alle catene globali del valore.

This paper aims to overview the recent body of empirical work on the importance of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in international production and trade. We begin by reviewing different approaches and levels of GVC analysis. We then consider developments in methods and data. Focusing on the agriculture and food sector, we present a map of GVC measures - at the country and sectoral level - computed using trade in value added data to allow researchers to better assess the countries’ engage-ment in GVCs. We also apply this data to show some stylized facts on GVC partici-pation and positioning in agriculture and food and provide empirical evidence of the economic impact of the GVCs on these sectors. We conclude with some critical issues and speculative thoughts regarding the future of GVCs., Paper presented at the 10th AIEAA Conference

La relazione tra commercio e cambiamento climatico è molto complessa e le interazioni tra i due fenomeni si manifestano in molteplici modi. I meccanismi sono sia diretti che indiretti e le caratteristiche globali degli impatti sul clima e le relative responsabilità incrementano le difficoltà interne al dibattito politico. A tal fine, una profonda conoscenza dei collegamenti tra settori e regioni come così come tra diversi livelli decisionali, è un prerequisito per gli esercizi di valutazione delle politiche climatiche e/o commerciali.

Reducing of food waste has become a policy priority in recent years as many studies show that a significant amount of food is wasted in different stages of food supply chain. However, the economic impacts of food waste reduction are not well studied as most of the studies in the literature ignore the costs and feedback effects. The aim of this report is to develop a general framework to analyse the economic impacts of reducing food waste in EU28 both in a global and a regional context, to support the EU policy making process on food waste reduction. For the purposes of this study, we employ the CGEBox toolbox which is a flexible, extendable and modular code basis for CGE modelling. The default configuration of CGEBox that is used in this study covers the global economy with a detailed representation of agriculture and food production sector whereas the EU28 is modelled at NUTS-II level. We simulate food waste reduction in food processing sectors under two different cost assumptions. First, by assuming that the cost of reducing food waste is equal to the monetary savings for the food processing industry; and second, by assuming that the cost of reducing food waste is twice as much as the savings from food waste. The scenarios assume a food waste reduction that is equal to 5% of the intermediate input use of food processing sectors. The results suggest that a unilateral commitment of the EU to reduce food loss and waste would most likely decrease the competitiveness of the EU food processing. Reduced demand for primary agricultural inputs would shrink the EU’s agricultural sectors, pressuring on farm incomes and land prices. The contribution to global food security would be very minor. The impact on emissions relevant for climate change at global level is also minor, with some very limited contribution inside the EU., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

This paper aims to overview the recent body of empirical work on the importance of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in international production and trade. We begin by reviewing different approaches and levels of GVC analysis. We then consider developments in methods and data. Focusing on the agriculture and food sector, we present a map of GVC measures - at the country and sectoral level - computed using trade in value added data to allow researchers to better assess the countries’ engagement in GVCs. We also apply this data to show some stylized facts on GVC participation and positioning in agriculture and food and provide empirical evidence of the economic impact of the GVCs on these sectors. We conclude with some critical issues and speculative thoughts regarding the future of GVCs.

We analyse the ‘indirect effects’ of Brexit on African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries’ exports that use the UK as a platform to access the EU market and vice versa. First, we use the EORA26 multi-region input–output database for 186 countries and 26 sectors to characterize the ACP domestic content embedded in bilateral trade between the UK and the EU. Second, we apply the GTAP-VA module to carry out a simulation of how the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement will impinge on 121 countries and 65 products. The results suggest that while ‘indirect effects’ on ACP countries’ exports may exist, their economic magnitude is small in aggregate because ACP countries supply only small amounts of inputs used in UK–EU bilateral trade. Our simulations also show that these effects may be offset by the likely increase in ACP domestic content in exports because of TCA friction, mainly towards the UK.

Fragmentation of global production requires measurement of trade in value added, which accounts for the way slices of value embedded in goods or services are added at each step of increasingly international manufacturing processes within global supply chains. The quality of indicators measuring trade in value added finally depends on the quality of the underlying global Inter-Country Input-Output tables which, in turn, depend on the quality and availability of underlying national statistics and the balancing and estimation techniques used in the harmonization procedure. Although the use of statistics based on these tables has become more routine in economic research, there is neither harmonization among different global databases nor a standard in the construction of data on which trade in value added is estimated. This contribution is an attempt to systematize the potential sources of the differences between databases and to show how estimations of trade in value added are impacted. Specifically, it provides a comparison between two of the main global databases used for macroeconomic analysis of global value chains and trade in value added patterns, namely, the GTAP Data Base and the OECD-WTO TiVA database, and provides a discussion of the reasons for the deviation in the estimates of global value chains-related trade. In the first part, a description of the databases and the underlying construction methodologies is provided. In the second part, the differences between the two databases in structural economic variables are presented. Finally, major TiVA indicators are estimated based on the different databases and discrepancies among them are discussed.

We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK–EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors’ exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy.

The US–Sino trade war will have significant repercussions on the global trade system. This study assesses the implications of the successive rounds of tariff hikes implemented by the US and Chinese governments on global value chains, with a focus on the major European Union economies. The evaluation is based on a computable general equilibrium model which incorporates a decomposition of trade in a value-added basis and allows to identify how changes in the conditions under which US–China trade is conducted affect the value contributed by different countries and to what extent. I find that US integration within GVCs contracts whereas China increases its participation mainly as a seller to global networks. The EU countries strengthen their linkages with the US and EU regional integration increases as a consequence of the tariff war between the US and China.

Global Value Chains (GVCs) have transformed production across a broad range of goods and services worldwide. New trade statistics are required in order to perform a more accurate analysis of trade flows through their decomposition in terms of value-added content, distinguished according to the sector/region of origin/destination. Our approach traces value added embedded in trade flows back to its origin or forward to its destination in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. A new module (available as a download with this paper) is introduced to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and used in a stylized scenario with 3 regions (the United States, the European Union and the Rest of the World) and 3 sectors (Manufactures, Agrifood and Services) where a free trade area between the European Union and the United States is simulated. Results show that the new version of the model (GTAP-VA) makes a useful contribution to trade policy analysis.

L’entrata in vigore dell’Accordo di Parigi il 4 novembre del 2016 ha sancito per i paesi firmatari un radicale cambio di passo nel-la progettazione delle politiche di contenimento e riduzione delle emissioni di gas serra responsabili del cambiamento climatico.•L’Unione europea (UE), in vista della prossima scadenza al 2023 per la presentazione di una nuova strategia di mitigazione delle emissioni climalteranti, ha approvato l’11 dicembre del 2019 il piano di transizione energetica sostenibile noto come European Green Deal, con l’obiettivo ultimo di arrivare al 2050 con una completa decarbonizzazione dell’economia europea.•Il piano di mitigazione delle emissioni dell’UE, sebbene molto am-bizioso, rimane un pacchetto di interventi su scala unilaterale, che consente di ridurre i gas serra su scala globale solo del 3,4%.•I molteplici legami economici e commerciali, che a livello mondiale sono rappresentati dalla stretta integrazione dei processi produt-tivi dei diversi paesi nelle catene globali del valore, impediscono all’azione unilaterale dell’UE di trasformarsi in un’azione efficace per ridurre le emissioni globali: il carbon leakage riduce l’impatto della politica dell’UE di quasi un terzo.

Lo Studio presenta un’analisi descrittiva dell’interscambio tra Italia e Mercosur e unasimulazione controfattuale volta a valutare come l'Accordo di associazione commerciale tra Unione Europea (UE) e Mercosur potrebbe influire sui flussi commerciali dell’Italia. La prima parte è dedicata alla ricostruzione delle relazioni economiche traItalia e Mercosur, con una disamina degli interessi commerciali italiani in termini di esportazioni e importazioni e un approfondimento dedicato al settore agroalimentare. La seconda parte riguarda una simulazione quantitativa condotta attraversoun modello di equilibrio generale globale per valutare gli effetti economici attesi dell’Accordo. I risultati della simulazione mostrano che i partner su entrambe le sponde dell'Atlantico potranno registrare un aumento dei flussi commerciali e delPIL a seguito dell'Accordo, sebbene una certa eterogeneità dei risultati, sia a livello di aree che settoriale, è stata riscontrata nello Studio

Even with the free trade agreement (FTA) announced on Christmas Eve, Brexit increases UK-EU trade costs, reduces trade between them, and requires resources for form-filling, queuing, etc. These in turn, lead to changes in consumption which reduce UK residents’ welfare. Exports of value added will fall by nearly 5.5% relative to a pre-Brexit scenario and GDP by 4.4%. If there had been no FTA, each of these harms would have been about one-third larger and the variability of the losses across sectors would have been larger. The biggest losses in UK exports to the EU are predicted to be in motor vehicles, chemicals, and food. These large declines in gross exports of goods reduce the indirect exports of their suppliers of services very significantly. Brexit will have a major impact in terms of reducing global value chains. The competitiveness of UK inputs into EU exports will induce declines in UK multilateral value added exports (UK value embodied in other countries’ exports). The impact of Brexit is due to the loss of the cost-reducing effects of the European Single Market. A shallow FTA such as that just announced can to little to address those.

The production of exports depends on value chains – between firms in one country and, through global value chains (GVCs), across international borders. Thus exports from one UK sector depend on value added from (and hence generate incomes in) other UK sectors and other countries. • Trade policies and the costs of doing trade apply to the gross value of a trade flow (e.g. a tariff is levied on the whole value of an imported car). But focusing on gross value – e.g. the decline in exports of cars as the cost of exporting to the EU rises - may be misleading because it misses the effects on the sectors and other countries that supply inputs into UK cars. • Even after the immediate logistical disruptions have been smoothed out, a ‘No deal’ Brexit will cut trade with the EU, and although trade with other countries, e.g. China, will increase, it will not do so by enough to make up the loss. Moreover, ‘No deal’ will seriously disrupt global value chains and significantly reduce the UK’s benefits from ‘Factory Europe’. • We study the effects of the barriers to trade in goods that a ‘No deal’ Brexit implies. We estimate that they will cut UK exports of goods by about 18%; nearly one-fifth of that loss of sales will show up as a loss of income in UK service sectors. • The overall loss of UK value added (i.e. income) from the goods trade barriers in ‘No deal’ will be about 4% of GDP. The largest proportionate declines will be in textiles and motor vehicles. • We have not quantified the barriers to services trade under ‘No deal’, but those on goods trade alone are enough to lead the UK service sector to contract by 4% because they cut UK incomes in general and reduce the demand for services as inputs into export sectors. • By raising barriers to trade with the EU, a ‘No deal’ Brexit will worsen the UK’s terms of trade – imports will cost more and exports fetch less. This will directly reduce economic welfare in the UK

The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement will create the largest single market in the world in terms of the number of countries and people. We analyse the effects of regional trade liberalisation on production fragmentation and networks using a global computable general equilibrium model adapted to take into account the value-added structure of international trade. This permits the analysis of the impact of trade policies in the presence of global upstream and downstream linkages through a counterfactual analysis. The analysis goes beyond previous studies by focusing on member countries’ agricultural and food integration in regional and global value chains through backward and forward linkages. Our simulation results suggest that the agreement could have a significant impact on trade patterns in terms of value-added structure and extra- or intra-regional destinations. The reduction in trade costs within the region has a higher incidence on agriculture and food backward intra-regional integration than on forward participation, but this pattern varies substantially across countries. We find that the continental agreement translates in more widely spread benefits across sectors if we consider the income generated within each sector (value added) rather than simply accounting for gross exports.