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4. LB 02.4 Anti-Platelet Factor 4 Induced Immunothrombosis Independent of Heparin or Vaccination

Author

Schönborn, L., primary, Esteban, O., additional, Wesche, J., additional, Dobosz, P., additional, Broto, M., additional, Rovira, S., additional, Fuhrmann, J., additional, Torres, R., additional, Serra, J., additional, Llevadot, R., additional, Lindhoff-Last, E., additional, Hoffmann, T., additional, Alberio, L., additional, Langer, F., additional, Boehme, C., additional, and Greinacher, A., additional

Published
2023
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5. A monotone numerical flux for quasilinear convection diffusion equation.

Author

Chainais-Hillairet, C., Eymard, R., and Fuhrmann, J.

Subjects
TRANSPORT equation, BOUNDARY value problems, LINEAR equations
Abstract

We propose a new numerical 2-point flux for a quasilinear convection–diffusion equation. This numerical flux is shown to be an approximation of the numerical flux derived from the solution of a two-point Dirichlet boundary value problem for the projection of the continuous flux onto the line connecting neighboring collocation points. The later approach generalizes an idea first proposed by Scharfetter and Gummel [IEEE Trans. Electron Devices 16 (1969), pp. 64–77] for linear drift-diffusion equations. We establish first that the new flux satisfies sufficient properties ensuring the convergence of the associate finite volume scheme, while respecting the maximum principle. Then, we pay attention to the long time behavior of the scheme: we show relative entropy decay properties satisfied by the new numerical flux as well as by the generalized Scharfetter-Gummel flux. The proof of these properties uses a generalization of some discrete (and continuous) log-Sobolev inequalities. The corresponding decay of the relative entropy of the continuous solution is proved in the appendix. Some 1D numerical experiments confirm the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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7. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Grah, R., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandmann, F., Deuschel, J., Wolffram, D., Abbott, S., Ullrich, A., Gibson, G., Ray, E. L., Reich, N. G., Sheldon, D., Wang, Y., Wattanachit, N., Wang, L., Trnka, J., Obozinski, G., Sun, T., Thanou, D., Pottier, L., Krymova, E., Meinke, J. H., Barbarossa, M. V., Leithäuser, N., Mohring, J., Schneider, J., Wlazlo, J., Fuhrmann, J., Lange, B., Rodiah, I., Baccam, P., Gurung, H., Stage, S., Suchoski, B., Budzinski, J., Walraven, R., Villanueva, I., Tucek, V., Smíd, M., Zajícek, M., Pérez Alvarez, C., Reina, B., Bosse, N. I., Meakin, S., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Michaud, I., Osthus, D., Alaimo Di Loro, P., Maruotti, A., Eclerová, V., Kraus, A., Kraus, D., Pribylova, L., Dimitris, B., Li, M. L., Saksham, S., Dehning, J., Mohr, S., Priesemann, V., Redlarski, G., Bejar, B., Ardenghi, G., Parolini, N., Ziarelli, G., Bock, Wolfgang, Heyder, S., Hotz, T., E. Singh, D., Guzman-Merino, M., Aznarte, J. L., Moriña, D., Alonso, S., Alvarez, E., López, D., Prats, C., Burgard, J. P., Rodloff, A., Zimmermann, T., Kuhlmann, A., Zibert, J., Pennoni, F., Divino, F., Català, M., Lovison, G., Giudici, P., Tarantino, B., Bartolucci, F., Jona Lasinio, G., Mingione, M., Farcomeni, A., Srivastava, A., Montero-Manso, P., Adiga, A., Hurt, B., Lewis, B., Marathe, M., Porebski, P., Venkatramanan, S., Bartczuk, R., Dreger, F., Gambin, A., Gogolewski, K., Gruziel-S?omka, M., Krupa, B., Moszynski, A., Niedzielewski, K., Nowosielski, J., Radwan, M., Rakowski, F., Semeniuk, M., Szczurek, E., Zieli?ski, J., Kisielewski, J., Pabjan, B., Kheifetz, Y., Kirsten, H., Scholz, M., Biecek, P., Bodych, M., Filinski, M., Idzikowski, R., Krueger, T., Ozanski, T., Bracher, J., Funk, S., Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Grah, R., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandmann, F., Deuschel, J., Wolffram, D., Abbott, S., Ullrich, A., Gibson, G., Ray, E. L., Reich, N. G., Sheldon, D., Wang, Y., Wattanachit, N., Wang, L., Trnka, J., Obozinski, G., Sun, T., Thanou, D., Pottier, L., Krymova, E., Meinke, J. H., Barbarossa, M. V., Leithäuser, N., Mohring, J., Schneider, J., Wlazlo, J., Fuhrmann, J., Lange, B., Rodiah, I., Baccam, P., Gurung, H., Stage, S., Suchoski, B., Budzinski, J., Walraven, R., Villanueva, I., Tucek, V., Smíd, M., Zajícek, M., Pérez Alvarez, C., Reina, B., Bosse, N. I., Meakin, S., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Michaud, I., Osthus, D., Alaimo Di Loro, P., Maruotti, A., Eclerová, V., Kraus, A., Kraus, D., Pribylova, L., Dimitris, B., Li, M. L., Saksham, S., Dehning, J., Mohr, S., Priesemann, V., Redlarski, G., Bejar, B., Ardenghi, G., Parolini, N., Ziarelli, G., Bock, Wolfgang, Heyder, S., Hotz, T., E. Singh, D., Guzman-Merino, M., Aznarte, J. L., Moriña, D., Alonso, S., Alvarez, E., López, D., Prats, C., Burgard, J. P., Rodloff, A., Zimmermann, T., Kuhlmann, A., Zibert, J., Pennoni, F., Divino, F., Català, M., Lovison, G., Giudici, P., Tarantino, B., Bartolucci, F., Jona Lasinio, G., Mingione, M., Farcomeni, A., Srivastava, A., Montero-Manso, P., Adiga, A., Hurt, B., Lewis, B., Marathe, M., Porebski, P., Venkatramanan, S., Bartczuk, R., Dreger, F., Gambin, A., Gogolewski, K., Gruziel-S?omka, M., Krupa, B., Moszynski, A., Niedzielewski, K., Nowosielski, J., Radwan, M., Rakowski, F., Semeniuk, M., Szczurek, E., Zieli?ski, J., Kisielewski, J., Pabjan, B., Kheifetz, Y., Kirsten, H., Scholz, M., Biecek, P., Bodych, M., Filinski, M., Idzikowski, R., Krueger, T., Ozanski, T., Bracher, J., and Funk, S.

Abstract

Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast mod

Published
2023
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8. A personal discussion on conservation, and how to formulate it

Author

Franck, Emmanuel, Fuhrmann, Jürgen, Michel-Dansac, Victor, Navoret, Laurent, Franck, E ( Emmanuel ), Fuhrmann, J ( Jürgen ), Michel-Dansac, V ( Victor ), Navoret, L ( Laurent ), Abgrall, Remi; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5553-7476, Franck, Emmanuel, Fuhrmann, Jürgen, Michel-Dansac, Victor, Navoret, Laurent, Franck, E ( Emmanuel ), Fuhrmann, J ( Jürgen ), Michel-Dansac, V ( Victor ), Navoret, L ( Laurent ), and Abgrall, Remi; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5553-7476

Abstract

Since the celebrated theorem of Lax and Wendroff, we know a necessary condition that any numerical scheme for hyperbolic problem should satisfy: it should be written in flux form. A variant can also be formulated for the entropy. Even though some schemes, as for example those using continuous finite element, do not formally cast into this framework, it is a very convenient one. In this paper, we revisit this, introduce a different notion of local conservation which contains the previous one in one space dimension, and explore its consequences. This gives a more flexible framework that allows to get, systematically, entropy stable schemes, entropy dissipative ones, or accommodate more constraints. In particular, we can show that continuous finite element method can be rewritten in the finite volume framework, and all the quantities involved are explicitly computable. We end by presenting the only counter example we are aware of, i.e a scheme that seems not to be rewritten as a finite volume scheme.

Published
2023

9. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K, Gruson, H, Grah, R, Johnson, H, Niehus, R, Prasse, B, Sandmann, F, Deuschel, J, Wolffram, D, Abbott, S, Ullrich, A, Gibson, G, L Ray, E, G Reich, N, Sheldon, D, Wang, Y, Wattanachit, N, Wang, L, Trnka, J, Obozinski, G, Sun, T, Thanou, D, Pottier, L, Krymova, E, H Meinke, J, Vittoria Barbarossa, M, Leithäuser, N, Mohring, J, Schneider, J, Włazło, J, Fuhrmann, J, Lange, B, Rodiah, I, Baccam, P, Gurung, H, Stage, S, Suchoski, B, Budzinski, J, Walraven, R, Villanueva, I, Tucek, V, Smid, M, Zajíček, M, Pérez Álvarez, C, Reina, B, I Bosse, N, R Meakin, S, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Michaud, I, Osthus, D, Alaimo Di Loro, P, Maruotti, A, Eclerová, V, Kraus, A, Kraus, D, Pribylova, L, Dimitris, B, Lingzhi Li, M, Saksham, S, Dehning, J, Mohr, S, Priesemann, V, Redlarski, G, Bejar, B, Ardenghi, G, Parolini, N, Ziarelli, G, Bock, W, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, E Singh, D, Guzman-Merino, M, L Aznarte, J, Moriña, D, Alonso, S, Álvarez, E, López, D, Prats, C, Pablo Burgard, J, Rodloff, A, Zimmermann, T, Kuhlmann, A, Zibert, J, Pennoni, F, Divino, F, Català, M, Lovison, G, Giudici, P, Tarantino, B, Bartolucci, F, Jona Lasinio, G, Mingione, M, Farcomeni, A, Srivastava, A, Montero-Manso, P, Adiga, A, Hurt, B, Lewis, B, Marathe, M, Porebski, P, Venkatramanan, S, P Bartczuk, R, Dreger, F, Gambin, A, Gogolewski, K, Gruziel-Słomka, M, Krupa, B, Moszyński, A, Niedzielewski, K, Nowosielski, J, Radwan, M, Rakowski, F, Semeniuk, M, Szczurek, E, Zieliński, J, Kisielewski, J, Pabjan, B, Kirsten, H, Kheifetz, Y, Scholz, M, Biecek, P, Bodych, M, Filinski, M, Idzikowski, R, Krueger, T, Ozanski, T, Bracher, J, Funk, S, Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithäuser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Włazło, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajíček, Cesar Pérez Álvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerová, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Moriña, Sergio Alonso, Enric Álvarez, Daniel López, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Català, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zieliński, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Holger Kirsten, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Przemyslaw Biecek, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, Sebastian Funk, Sherratt, K, Gruson, H, Grah, R, Johnson, H, Niehus, R, Prasse, B, Sandmann, F, Deuschel, J, Wolffram, D, Abbott, S, Ullrich, A, Gibson, G, L Ray, E, G Reich, N, Sheldon, D, Wang, Y, Wattanachit, N, Wang, L, Trnka, J, Obozinski, G, Sun, T, Thanou, D, Pottier, L, Krymova, E, H Meinke, J, Vittoria Barbarossa, M, Leithäuser, N, Mohring, J, Schneider, J, Włazło, J, Fuhrmann, J, Lange, B, Rodiah, I, Baccam, P, Gurung, H, Stage, S, Suchoski, B, Budzinski, J, Walraven, R, Villanueva, I, Tucek, V, Smid, M, Zajíček, M, Pérez Álvarez, C, Reina, B, I Bosse, N, R Meakin, S, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Michaud, I, Osthus, D, Alaimo Di Loro, P, Maruotti, A, Eclerová, V, Kraus, A, Kraus, D, Pribylova, L, Dimitris, B, Lingzhi Li, M, Saksham, S, Dehning, J, Mohr, S, Priesemann, V, Redlarski, G, Bejar, B, Ardenghi, G, Parolini, N, Ziarelli, G, Bock, W, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, E Singh, D, Guzman-Merino, M, L Aznarte, J, Moriña, D, Alonso, S, Álvarez, E, López, D, Prats, C, Pablo Burgard, J, Rodloff, A, Zimmermann, T, Kuhlmann, A, Zibert, J, Pennoni, F, Divino, F, Català, M, Lovison, G, Giudici, P, Tarantino, B, Bartolucci, F, Jona Lasinio, G, Mingione, M, Farcomeni, A, Srivastava, A, Montero-Manso, P, Adiga, A, Hurt, B, Lewis, B, Marathe, M, Porebski, P, Venkatramanan, S, P Bartczuk, R, Dreger, F, Gambin, A, Gogolewski, K, Gruziel-Słomka, M, Krupa, B, Moszyński, A, Niedzielewski, K, Nowosielski, J, Radwan, M, Rakowski, F, Semeniuk, M, Szczurek, E, Zieliński, J, Kisielewski, J, Pabjan, B, Kirsten, H, Kheifetz, Y, Scholz, M, Biecek, P, Bodych, M, Filinski, M, Idzikowski, R, Krueger, T, Ozanski, T, Bracher, J, Funk, S, Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithäuser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Włazło, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajíček, Cesar Pérez Álvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerová, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Moriña, Sergio Alonso, Enric Álvarez, Daniel López, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Català, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zieliński, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Holger Kirsten, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Przemyslaw Biecek, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, and Sebastian Funk

Abstract

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease contribute to situational awareness and capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise forecasts’ predictive performance by combining independent models into an ensemble. Here we report the performance of ensemble predictions of COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe from March 2021 to March 2022. Methods: We created the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub, an online open-access platform where modellers upload weekly forecasts for 32 countries with results publicly visualised and evaluated. We created a weekly ensemble forecast from the equally-weighted average across individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured forecast accuracy using a baseline and relative Weighted Interval Score (rWIS). We retrospectively explored ensemble methods, including weighting by past performance. Results: We collected weekly forecasts from 48 models, of which we evaluated 29 models alongside the ensemble model. The ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time, performing better on rWIS than 91% of forecasts for deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models), and 83% forecasts for cases (N=886 predictions from 23 models). Performance remained stable over a 4-week horizon for death forecasts but declined with longer horizons for cases. Among ensemble methods, the most influential choice came from using a median average instead of the mean, regardless of weighting component models. Conclusions: Our results support combining independent models into an ensemble forecast to improve epidemiological predictions, and suggest that median averages yield better performance than methods based on means. We highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than case forecasts at horizons greater than two weeks. Funding: European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, FEDER; Ag

Published
2023

14. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K., primary, Gruson, H., additional, Grah, R., additional, Johnson, H., additional, Niehus, R., additional, Prasse, B., additional, Sandman, F., additional, Deuschel, J., additional, Wolffram, D., additional, Abbott, S., additional, Ullrich, A., additional, Gibson, G., additional, Ray, EL., additional, Reich, NG., additional, Sheldon, D., additional, Wang, Y., additional, Wattanachit, N., additional, Wang, L., additional, Trnka, J., additional, Obozinski, G., additional, Sun, T., additional, Thanou, D., additional, Pottier, L., additional, Krymova, E., additional, Barbarossa, MV., additional, Leithäuser, N., additional, Mohring, J., additional, Schneider, J., additional, Wlazlo, J., additional, Fuhrmann, J., additional, Lange, B., additional, Rodiah, I., additional, Baccam, P., additional, Gurung, H., additional, Stage, S., additional, Suchoski, B., additional, Budzinski, J., additional, Walraven, R., additional, Villanueva, I., additional, Tucek, V., additional, Šmíd, M., additional, Zajícek, M., additional, Pérez Álvarez, C., additional, Reina, B., additional, Bosse, NI., additional, Meakin, S., additional, Di Loro, P. Alaimo, additional, Maruotti, A., additional, Eclerová, V., additional, Kraus, A., additional, Kraus, D., additional, Pribylova, L., additional, Dimitris, B., additional, Li, ML., additional, Saksham, S., additional, Dehning, J., additional, Mohr, S., additional, Priesemann, V., additional, Redlarski, G., additional, Bejar, B., additional, Ardenghi, G., additional, Parolini, N., additional, Ziarelli, G., additional, Bock, W., additional, Heyder, S., additional, Hotz, T., additional, E. Singh, D., additional, Guzman-Merino, M., additional, Aznarte, JL., additional, Moriña, D., additional, Alonso, S., additional, Álvarez, E., additional, López, D., additional, Prats, C., additional, Burgard, JP., additional, Rodloff, A., additional, Zimmermann, T., additional, Kuhlmann, A., additional, Zibert, J., additional, Pennoni, F., additional, Divino, F., additional, Català, M., additional, Lovison, G., additional, Giudici, P., additional, Tarantino, B., additional, Bartolucci, F., additional, Jona Lasinio, G., additional, Mingione, M., additional, Farcomeni, A., additional, Srivastava, A., additional, Montero-Manso, P., additional, Adiga, A., additional, Hurt, B., additional, Lewis, B., additional, Marathe, M., additional, Porebski, P., additional, Venkatramanan, S., additional, Bartczuk, R., additional, Dreger, F., additional, Gambin, A., additional, Gogolewski, K., additional, Gruziel-Slomka, M., additional, Krupa, B., additional, Moszynski, A., additional, Niedzielewski, K., additional, Nowosielski, J., additional, Radwan, M., additional, Rakowski, F., additional, Semeniuk, M., additional, Szczurek, E., additional, Zielinski, J., additional, Kisielewski, J., additional, Pabjan, B., additional, Holger, K., additional, Kheifetz, Y., additional, Scholz, M., additional, Bodych, M., additional, Filinski, M., additional, Idzikowski, R., additional, Krueger, T., additional, Ozanski, T., additional, Bracher, J., additional, and Funk, S., additional

Published
2022
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18. Operationen im Supraaortenbereich

Author

Allenberg, J., Loeprecht, H., Balzer, K., Guds, I., Eisenhardt, H. J., Stockmann, U., Husfeldt, K.-J., Alemany, J., Görtz, H., Montag, H., Horsch, S., Ktenidis, K., Ricke, S., Konstantis, C., von Sommoggy, St., Langer, C., Fuhrmann, J., Schmidbauer, U., Schwemmle, K., Hupp, T., Eckstein, H. H., Laipple, A., Allenberg, J. R., Scheideler, K., Betzler, M., Löhr, J., Hamann, H., Cyba-Altunbay, S., Hartel, W., editor, and Hierholzer, G.

Published
1995
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19. A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Author

Bracher, J, Wolffram, D, Deuschel, J, Görgen, K, Ketterer, JL, Ullrich, A, Abbott, S, Barbarossa, MV, Bertsimas, D, Bhatia, S, Bodych, M, Bosse, NI, Burgard, JP, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Fuhrmann, J, Funk, S, Gogolewski, K, Gu, Q, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, Kheifetz, Y, Kirsten, H, Krueger, T, Krymova, E, Li, ML, Meinke, JH, Michaud, IJ, Niedzielewski, K, Ożański, T, Rakowski, F, Scholz, M, Soni, S, Srivastava, A, Zieliński, J, Zou, D, Gneiting, T, Schienle, M, and List of Contributors by Team

Subjects
social sciences
Abstract

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

Published
2021

25. Short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave – a preregistered study

Author

Bracher, J., primary, Wolffram, D., additional, Deuschel, J., additional, Görgen, K., additional, Ketterer, J.L., additional, Ullrich, A., additional, Abbott, S., additional, Barbarossa, M.V., additional, Bertsimas, D., additional, Bhatia, S., additional, Bodych, M., additional, Bosse, N.I., additional, Burgard, J.P., additional, Castro, L., additional, Fairchild, G., additional, Fuhrmann, J., additional, Funk, S., additional, Gogolewski, K., additional, Gu, Q., additional, Heyder, S., additional, Hotz, T., additional, Kheifetz, Y., additional, Kirsten, H., additional, Krueger, T., additional, Krymova, E., additional, Li, M.L., additional, Meinke, J.H., additional, Michaud, I.J., additional, Niedzielewski, K., additional, Ożański, T., additional, Rakowski, F., additional, Scholz, M., additional, Soni, S., additional, Srivastava, A., additional, Zieliński, J., additional, Zou, D., additional, Gneiting, T., additional, and Schienle, M., additional

Published
2020
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34. Assembly of inhibitory synapses

Author

Betz, H., Kneussel, M., Fuhrmann, J., Grosskreutz, Y., Laube, B., OʼSullivan, G., Ohno, K., Gomeza, J., and Far, O. E.

Published
2003

35. Ambulantes unfallchirurgisches Operieren: Realität — Perspektiven

Author

Ulsenheimer, K., primary, Müller, C., additional, Schauwecker, H. H., additional, Ottner, B., additional, Fuhrmann, J., additional, Sticher, J., additional, Grimm, H., additional, Schnettler, R., additional, von Hasselbach, C., additional, Pries, F., additional, Schäferhoff, P., additional, Brand, J., additional, Kujat, R., additional, Eickhoff, U., additional, Eichhorn, J., additional, Strobel, M., additional, and Danner, J., additional

Published
1996
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43. The complete flux scheme in cylindrical coordinates

Author

Anthonissen, M.J.H., Thije Boonkkamp, ten, J.H.M., Fuhrmann, J., Ohlberger, M., Rohde, C., and Scientific Computing

Subjects
Conservation law, Finite volume method, Advection, Mathematical analysis, Geometry, Cylindrical coordinate system, Boundary value problem, Diffusion (business), Focus (optics), Midpoint method, Mathematics
Abstract

We consider the complete flux (CF) scheme , a finite volume method (FVM) presented in [3]. CF is based on an integral representation for the fluxes, found by solving a local boundary value problem that includes the source term. It performs well (second order accuracy) for both diffusion and advection dominated problems. In this paper we focus on cylindrically symmetric conservation laws of advection-diffusion-reaction type.

Published
2014

44. The application of synthetic fluids to automotive lubricant development

Author

Coffin, P.S., Lindsay, C.M., Mills, A.J., Lindenkamp, H., and Fuhrmann, J.

Subjects
Lubricating oils -- Evaluation, Synthetic lubricants -- Usage, Automobiles -- Maintenance and repair, Business, Business, international, Petroleum, energy and mining industries
Abstract

The Application of Synthetic Fluids to Automotive Lubricant Development 1. Introduction Synthetic lubricants are based on synthetic basestocks and these are manufactured by chemically reacting materials which are not themselves [...]

Published
1990

48. Branched-chain amino acid catabolism rather than amino acids plasma concentrations is associated with diet-induced changes in insulin resistance in overweight to obese individuals

Author

Haufe, S., Engeli, S., Kaminski, J., Witt, H., Rein, D., Kamlage, B., Utz, W., Fuhrmann, J. C., Haas, V., Maehler, A., Schulz-Menger, J., Luft, F. C., Boschmann, M., Jordan, J., Haufe, S., Engeli, S., Kaminski, J., Witt, H., Rein, D., Kamlage, B., Utz, W., Fuhrmann, J. C., Haas, V., Maehler, A., Schulz-Menger, J., Luft, F. C., Boschmann, M., and Jordan, J.

Abstract

Background & aims: 3-Hydroxyisobutyrate (3-HIB), a catabolic intermediate of the BCAA valine, which stimulates muscle fatty acid uptake, has been implicated in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance. We tested the hypothesis that circulating 3-HIB herald insulin resistance and that metabolic improvement with weight loss are related to changes in BCAAs and 3-HIB. Methods and results: We analyzed plasma and urine in 109 overweight to obese individuals before and after six months on hypocaloric diets reduced in either carbohydrates or fat. We calculated the homeostasis model assessment index (HOMA-IR) and whole body insulin sensitivity from oral glucose tolerance tests and measured intramyocellular fat by magnetic resonance spectroscopy. BCAAs and 3-HIB plasma concentrations were inversely related to insulin sensitivity but not to intramyocellular fat content at baseline. With 7.4 +/- 4.5% weight loss mean BCAA and 3-HIB plasma concentrations did not change, irrespective of dietary macronutrient content. Individual changes in 3-HIB with 6-month diet but not BCAAs were correlated to the change in whole body insulin sensitivity and HOMA-IR independently of BMI changes. Conclusions: 3-HIB relates to insulin sensitivity but is not associated with intramyocellular fat content in overweight to obese individuals. Moreover, changes in 3-HIB rather than changes in BCAAs are associated with metabolic improvements with weight loss. (C) 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Published
2017

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