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Among binary asteroids, (35107) 1991VH stands out as unique given the likely chaotic rotation within its secondary component. The source of this excited dynamical state is unknown. In this work we demonstrate that a past close encounter with Earth could have provided the necessary perturbation to allow the natural internal dynamics, characterized by spin-orbit coupling, to evolve the system into its current dynamical state. In this hypothesis, the secondary of 1991VH was previously in a classical 1:1 spin-orbit resonance with an orbit period likely between 28-35 hours before being perturbed by an Earth encounter within $\sim80,000$ km. We find if the energy dissipation within the secondary is relatively inefficient, this excited dynamical state could persist to today and produce the observed ground-based measurements. Coupled with the orbital history of 1991VH, we can then place a constraint on the tidal dissipation parameters of the secondary., Comment: Accepted for publication in PSJ

With the successful impact of the NASA DART spacecraft in the Didymos-Dimorphos binary asteroid system, we provide an initial analysis of the post-impact perturbed binary asteroid dynamics. To compare our simulation results with observations, we introduce a set of "observable elements" calculated using only the physical separation of the binary asteroid, rather than traditional Keplerian elements. Using numerical methods that treat the fully spin-orbit-coupled dynamics, we estimate the system's mass and the impact-induced changes in orbital velocity, semimajor axis, and eccentricity. We find that the changes to the mutual orbit depend strongly on the separation distance between Didymos and Dimorphos at the time of impact. If Dimorphos enters a tumbling state after the impact, this may be observable through changes in the system's eccentricity and orbit period. We also find that any DART-induced reshaping of Dimorphos would generally reduce the required change in orbital velocity to achieve the measured post-impact orbit period and will be assessed by the ESA Hera mission in 2027., Comment: Accepted for publication in PSJ

The catalog of km-sized near-Earth objects (NEOs) is nearly complete. Typical impact monitoring analyses search for possible impacts over the next 100 years and none of the km-sized objects represent an impact threat over that time interval. Assessing the impact risk over longer time scales is a challenge since orbital uncertainties grow. To overcome this limitation we analyze the evolution of the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID), which bounds the closest possible encounters between the asteroid and the Earth. The evolution of the MOID highlights NEOs that are in the vicinity of the Earth for longer periods of time, and we propose a method to estimate the probability of a deep Earth encounter during these periods. This metric is used to rank the km-sized catalog in terms of their long-term impact hazard to identify targets of potential interest for additional observation and exploration., Comment: 20 pages, 17 figures, Accepted for Publication in The Astronomical Journal

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft is planned to impact the natural satellite of (65803) Didymos, Dimorphos, around 23:14 UTC on 26 September 2022, causing a reduction in its orbital period that will be measurable with ground-based observations. This test of kinetic impactor technology will provide the first estimate of the momentum transfer enhancement factor $\beta$ at a realistic scale, wherein ejecta from the impact provides an additional deflection to the target. Earth-based observations, the LICIACube spacecraft (to be detached from DART prior to impact), and ESA's follow-up Hera mission to launch in 2024, will provide additional characterization of the deflection test. Together Hera and DART comprise the Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) cooperation between NASA and ESA. Here the predicted dynamical states of the binary system upon arrival and after impact are presented. The assumed dynamically relaxed state of the system will be excited by the impact, leading to an increase in eccentricity and slight tilt of the orbit together with enhanced libration of Dimorphos with amplitude dependent on the currently poorly known target shape. Free rotation around the moon's long axis may also be triggered and the orbital period will experience variations from seconds to minutes over timescales of days to months. Shape change of either body due to cratering or mass wasting triggered by crater formation and ejecta may affect $\beta$ but can be constrained through additional measurements. Both BYORP and gravity tides may cause measurable orbital changes on the timescale of Hera's rendezvous., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, published in PSJ

The propagation of small bodies in the Solar system is driven by the combination of planetary encounters that cause abrupt changes in their orbits and secular long-term perturbations. We propose a propagation strategy that combines both of these effects into a single framework for long-term, rapid propagation of small bodies in the inner Solar System. The analytical secular perturbation of Jupiter is interrupted to numerically solve planetary encounters, which last a small fraction of the simulation time. The proposed propagation method is compared to numerical integrations in the Solar system, effectively capturing properties of the numerical solutions in a fraction of the computational time. We study the orbital history of the Janus mission targets: (35107) 1991 VH and (175706) 1996 FG3, obtaining a stochastic representation of their long-term dynamics and frequencies of very close encounters. Over the last million years the probability of a strongly perturbing flyby is found to be small., Comment: 39 pages, 23 figures, accepted to the Planetary Science Journal (AAS-PSJ)