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Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is critical for protecting life by predicting population responses to contaminants. However, routine toxicity testing often examines only one genotype from surrogate species, potentially leading to inaccurate risk assessments, as natural populations typically consist of genetically diverse individuals. To evaluate the importance of intraspecific variation in translating toxicity testing to natural populations, we quantified the magnitude of phenotypic variation between 20 Daphnia magna clones exposed to two levels of microcystins, a cosmopolitan cyanobacterial toxin. We observed significant genetic variation in survival, growth, and reproduction, which increased under microcystins exposure. Simulations of survival showed that using a single genotype for toxicity tolerance estimates on average failed to produce accurate predictions within the 95% confidence interval over half of the time. Whole genome sequencing of the 20 clones tested for correlations between toxicological responses and genomic divergence, including candidate loci from prior gene expression studies. We found no overall correlations, indicating that clonal variation, rather than variation at candidate genes, predicts population-level responses to toxins. These results highlight the importance of incorporating broad intraspecific genetic variation, without focusing specifically on variation in candidate genes, into ERAs to more reliably predict how local populations will respond to contaminants., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Phenotypic plasticity is a primary mechanism by which organismal phenotypes shift in response to the environment. Host-associated microbiomes often exhibit considerable shifts in response to environmental variation and these shifts could facilitate host phenotypic plasticity, adaptation, or rescue populations from extinction. However, it is unclear how much shifts in microbiome composition contribute to host phenotypic plasticity, limiting our knowledge of the underlying mechanisms of plasticity and, ultimately, the fate of populations inhabiting changing environments. In this study, we examined phenotypic responses and microbiome composition in 20 genetically distinct Daphnia magna clones exposed to non-toxic and toxic diets containing Microcystis , a cosmopolitan cyanobacteria and common stressor for Daphnia . Daphnia exhibited significant plasticity in survival, reproduction, and population growth rates in response to Microcystis exposure. However, the effects of Microcystis exposure on the Daphnia microbiome were limited, with the primary effect being differences in abundance observed across five bacterial families. Moreover, there was no significant correlation between the magnitude of microbiome shifts and host phenotypic plasticity. Our results suggest that microbiome composition played a negligible role in driving host phenotypic plasticity or microbiome-mediated rescue., Competing Interests: Competing interest statement: The authors declare no competing interests.

Individuals that isolate themselves to give birth can use more than one strategy in choosing birth sites to maximize reproductive success. Previous research has focused on the consistency in the use of the same birth-site across years (i.e., spatial fidelity), but individuals alternatively may use similar habitat conditions across years (i.e., habitat fidelity). Using GPS telemetry, we determined whether woodland caribou expressed spatial or habitat fidelity during calving, and evaluated intrinsic and extrinsic factors associated with expressing either type of fidelity. We identified 56 individuals with ≥2 putative birth events, via a movement-based model, across northern Ontario between 2010 and 2014. Individuals were classified as expressing (1) spatial fidelity by comparing sequential calving locations to a random spatial distribution of available calving locations, (2) habitat fidelity using a logistic use model compared to a null (intercept only) model, (3) no fidelity (neither criterion met), or (4) both spatial and habitat fidelity (both criteria met). Across all individuals, 37% expressed no fidelity (36 of 98), 15% expressed only spatial fidelity (15 of 99), 35% expressed only habitat fidelity (34 of 98), and 14% expressed both spatial and habitat fidelity (14 of 98). Older individuals were more likely to express spatial fidelity, whereas lower availability of upland and lowland conifer forests without linear features increased the probability an individual expressed habitat fidelity. Our results indicate that managing for caribou calving needs to consider protecting both specific, known birthing sites, but also broad-scale areas of preferred habitat for calving. Understanding the mechanisms that influence caribou expressing calving fidelity, and associated fitness costs, is crucial for the conservation of the species., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interests., (© 2024 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Author(s). Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry.)

Parturition and the early neonatal period are critical life history stages in ungulates with considerable implications for population growth and persistence. Understanding the changes in behaviour induced by ungulate parturition is important for supporting effective population management, but reliably identifying birth sites and dates presents a challenge for managers. Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis) are one such highly valued and ecologically important species in montane and subalpine ecosystems of Western North America. In the face of changing patterns of anthropogenic land use, wildlife managers increasingly require site-specific knowledge of the movement and habitat selection characteristics of periparturient sheep to better inform land use planning initiatives and ensure adequate protections for lambing habitat. We used movement data from GPS collared parturient (n = 13) and non-parturient (n = 8) bighorn sheep in Banff National Park, Canada to (1) identify lambing events based on changes in key movement metrics, and (2) investigate how resource selection and responses to human use change during the periparturient period. We fit a hidden Markov model (HMM) to a multivariate characterization of sheep movement (step length, daily home range area, residence time) to predict realistic lambing dates for the animals in our study system. Leave-one-out cross validation of our model resulted in a 93% success rate for parturient females. Our model, which we parameterized using data from known parturient females, also predicted lambing events in 25% of known non-parturient ewes in a test dataset. Using a latent selection difference function and resource selection functions, we tested for postpartum changes in habitat use, as well as seasonal differences in habitat selection. Immediately following lambing, ewes preferentially selected high-elevation sites on solar aspects that were more rugged, closer to escape terrain, and further from roads. Within-home range habitat selection was similar between individuals in different reproductive states, but parturient ewes had stronger selection for low snow depth, sites closer to barren ground, and sites further from trails. We propose that movement-based approaches such as HMMs are a valuable tool for identifying critical parturition habitat in species with complex movement patterns and may have particular utility in study areas without access to extensive field observations or vaginal implant transmitters. Furthermore, our results suggest that managers should minimize human disturbance in lambing areas to avoid interfering with maternal behaviour and ensure access to a broad range of suitable habitat in the periparturient period., (© 2023. Crown.)

Deep learning for computer vision has shown promising results in the field of entomology, however, there still remains untapped potential. Deep learning performance is enabled primarily by large quantities of annotated data which, outside of rare circumstances, are limited in ecological studies. Currently, to utilize deep learning systems, ecologists undergo extensive data collection efforts, or limit their problem to niche tasks. These solutions do not scale to region agnostic models. However, there are solutions that employ data augmentation, simulators, generative models, and self-supervised learning that can supplement limited labelled data. Here, we highlight the success of deep learning for computer vision within entomology, discuss data collection efforts, provide methodologies for optimizing learning from limited annotations, and conclude with practical guidelines for how to achieve a foundation model for entomology capable of accessible automated ecological monitoring on a global scale., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aim: Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert-based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert-based information with detailed empirical evidence. Here, we compared expert-based habitat suitability information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with habitat suitability information derived from GPS-tracking data of 1,498 individuals from 49 mammal species., Location: Worldwide., Time Period: 1998-2021., Major Taxa Studied: Forty-nine terrestrial mammal species., Methods: Using GPS data, we estimated two measures of habitat suitability for each individual animal: proportional habitat use (proportion of GPS locations within a habitat type), and selection ratio (habitat use relative to its availability). For each individual we then evaluated whether the GPS-based habitat suitability measures were in agreement with the IUCN data. To that end, we calculated the probability that the ranking of empirical habitat suitability measures was in agreement with IUCN's classification into suitable, marginal and unsuitable habitat types., Results: IUCN habitat suitability data were in accordance with the GPS data (> 95% probability of agreement) for 33 out of 49 species based on proportional habitat use estimates and for 25 out of 49 species based on selection ratios. In addition, 37 and 34 species had a > 50% probability of agreement based on proportional habitat use and selection ratios, respectively., Main Conclusions: We show how GPS-tracking data can be used to evaluate IUCN habitat suitability data. Our findings indicate that for the majority of species included in this study, it is appropriate to use IUCN habitat suitability data in macroecological studies. Furthermore, we show that GPS-tracking data can be used to identify and prioritize species and habitat types for re-evaluation of IUCN habitat suitability data., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflict of interest to declare., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Almost 50 years ago, Michael Rosenzweig pointed out that nutrient addition can destabilise food webs, leading to loss of species and reduced ecosystem function through the paradox of enrichment. Around the same time, David Tilman demonstrated that increased nutrient loading would also be expected to cause competitive exclusion leading to deleterious changes in food web diversity. While both concepts have greatly illuminated general diversity-stability theory, we currently lack a coherent framework to predict how nutrients influence food web stability across a landscape. This is a vitally important gap in our understanding, given mounting evidence of serious ecological disruption arising from anthropogenic displacement of resources and organisms. Here, we combine contemporary theory on food webs and meta-ecosystems to show that nutrient additions are indeed expected to drive loss in stability and function in human-impacted regions. Our models suggest that destabilisation is more likely to be caused by the complete loss of an equilibrium due to edible plant species being competitively excluded. In highly modified landscapes, spatial nutrient transport theory suggests that such instabilities can be amplified over vast distances from the sites of nutrient addition. Consistent with this theoretical synthesis, the empirical frequency of these distant propagating ecosystem imbalances appears to be growing. This synthesis of theory and empirical data suggests that human modification of the Earth is strongly connecting distantly separated ecosystems, causing rapid, expansive and costly nutrient-driven instabilities over vast areas of the planet. Similar to existing food web theory, the corollary to this spatial nutrient theory is that slowing down spatial nutrient pathways can be a potent means of stabilising degraded ecosystems., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Despite being widely used, habitat selection models are rarely reliable and informative when applied across different ecosystems or over time. One possible explanation is that habitat selection is context-dependent due to variation in consumer density and/or resource availability. The goal of this paper is to provide a general theoretical perspective on the contributory mechanisms of consumer and resource density-dependent habitat selection, as well as on our capacity to account for their effects. Towards this goal we revisit the ideal free distribution (IFD), where consumers are assumed to be omniscient, equally competitive and freely moving, and are hence expected to instantaneously distribute themselves across a heterogeneous landscape such that fitness is equalised across the population. Although these assumptions are clearly unrealistic to some degree, the simplicity of the structure in IFD provides a useful theoretical vantage point to help clarify our understanding of more complex spatial processes. Of equal importance, IFD assumptions are compatible with the assumptions underlying common habitat selection models. Here we show how a fitness-maximising space use model, based on IFD, gives rise to resource and consumer density-dependent shifts in consumer distribution, providing a mechanistic explanation for the context-dependent outcomes often reported in habitat selection analysis. Our model suggests that adaptive shifts in consumer distribution patterns would be expected to lead to nonlinear and often non-monotonic patterns of habitat selection. These results indicate that even under the simplest of assumptions about adaptive organismal behaviour, habitat selection strength should critically depend on system-wide characteristics. Clarifying the impact of adaptive behavioural responses may be pivotal in making meaningful ecological inferences about observed patterns of habitat selection and allow reliable transferability of habitat selection predictions across time and space., (© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.)

Competing Interests: The author declares no competing interest.

Reduced body size and accelerated life cycle due to warming are considered major ecological responses to climate change with fitness costs at the individual level. Surprisingly, we know little about how relevant ecological factors can alter these life history trade-offs and their consequences for individual fitness. Here, we show that food modulates temperature-dependent effects on body size in the water flea Daphnia magna and interacts with temperature to affect life history parameters. We exposed 412 individuals to a factorial manipulation of food abundance and temperature, tracked each reproductive event, and took daily measurements of body size from each individual. High temperature caused a reduction in maximum body size in both food treatments, but this effect was mediated by food abundance, such that low food conditions resulted in a reduction of 20% in maximum body size, compared with a reduction of 4% under high food conditions. High temperature resulted in an accelerated life cycle, with pronounced fitness cost at low levels of food where only a few individuals produced a clutch. These results suggest that the mechanisms affecting the trade-off between fast growth and final body size are food-dependent, and that the combination of low levels of food and high temperature could potentially threaten viability of ectotherms., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aim: The influence of humans on large carnivores, including wolves, is a worldwide conservation concern. In addition, human-caused changes in carnivore density and distribution might have impacts on prey and, indirectly, on vegetation. We therefore tested wolf responses to infrastructure related to natural resource development (i.e., human footprint)., Location: Our study provides one of the most extensive assessments of how predators like wolves select habitat in response to various degrees of footprint across boreal ecosystems encompassing over a million square kilometers of Canada., Methods: We deployed GPS-collars on 172 wolves, monitored movements and used a generalized functional response (GFR) model of resource selection. A functional response in habitat selection occurs when selection varies as a function of the availability of that habitat. GFRs can clarify how human-induced habitat changes are influencing wildlife across large, diverse landscapes., Results: Wolves displayed a functional response to footprint. Wolves were more likely to select forest harvest cutblocks in regions with higher cutblock density (i.e., a positive functional response to high-quality habitats for ungulate prey) and to select for higher road density in regions where road density was high (i.e., a positive functional response to human-created travel routes). Wolves were more likely to use cutblocks in habitats with low road densities, and more likely to use roads in habitats with low cutblock densities, except in winter when wolves were more likely to use roads regardless of cutblock density., Main Conclusions: These interactions suggest that wolves trade-off among human-impacted habitats, and adaptively switch from using roads to facilitate movement (while also risking encounters with humans), to using cutblocks that may have higher ungulate densities. We recommend that conservation managers consider the contextual and interacting effects of footprints when assessing impacts on carnivores. These effects likely have indirect impacts on ecosystems too, including on prey species., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Collective behaviours contributing to patterns of group formation and coordinated movement are common across many ecosystems and taxa. Their ubiquity is presumably due to altering interactions between individuals and their predators, resources and physical environment in ways that enhance individual fitness. On the other hand, fitness costs are also often associated with group formation. Modifications to these interactions have the potential to dramatically impact population-level processes, such as trophic interactions or patterns of space use in relation to abiotic environmental variation. In a wide variety of empirical systems and models, collective behaviour has been shown to enhance access to ephemeral patches of resources, reduce the risk of predation and reduce vulnerability to environmental fluctuation. Evolution of collective behaviour should accordingly depend on the advantages of collective behaviour weighed against the costs experienced at the individual level. As an illustrative case study, we consider the potential trade-offs on Malthusian fitness associated with patterns of group formation and movement by migratory Thomson's gazelles in the Serengeti ecosystem.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'., (© 2018 The Authors.)

The ideal free distribution assumes that animals select habitats that are beneficial to their fitness. When the needs of dependent offspring differ from those of the parent, ideal habitat selection patterns could vary with the presence or absence of offspring. We test whether habitat selection depends on reproductive state due to top-down or bottom-up influences on the fitness of woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ), a threatened, wide-ranging herbivore. We combined established methods of fitting resource and step selection functions derived from locations of collared animals in Ontario with newer techniques, including identifying calf status from video collar footage and seasonal habitat selection analysis through latent selection difference functions. We found that females with calves avoided predation risk and proximity to roads more strongly than females without calves within their seasonal ranges. At the local scale, females with calves avoided predation more strongly than females without calves. Females with calves increased predation avoidance but not selection for food availability upon calving, whereas females without calves increased selection for food availability across the same season. These behavioral responses suggest that habitat selection by woodland caribou is influenced by reproductive state, such that females with calves at heel use habitat selection to offset the increased vulnerability of their offspring to predation risk.

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission., (Copyright © 2018, The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles.

There is growing awareness of the need for fishery management policies that are robust to changing environmental, social, and economic pressures. Here we use conventional bioeconomic theory to demonstrate that inherent biological constraints combined with nonlinear supply-demand relationships can generate threshold effects due to harvesting. As a result, increases in overall demand due to human population growth or improvement in real income would be expected to induce critical transitions from high-yield/low-price fisheries to low-yield/high-price fisheries, generating severe strains on social and economic systems as well as compromising resource conservation goals. As a proof of concept, we show that key predictions of the critical transition hypothesis are borne out in oceanic fisheries (cod and pollock) that have experienced substantial increase in fishing pressure over the past 60 y. A hump-shaped relationship between price and historical harvest returns, well demonstrated in these empirical examples, is particularly diagnostic of fishery degradation. Fortunately, the same heuristic can also be used to identify reliable targets for fishery restoration yielding optimal bioeconomic returns while safely conserving resource abundance., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Ontario are a threatened species that have experienced a substantial retraction of their historic range. Part of their decline has been attributed to increasing densities of anthropogenic linear features such as trails, roads, railways, and hydro lines. These features have been shown to increase the search efficiency and kill rate of wolves. However, it is unclear whether selection for anthropogenic linear features is additive or compensatory to selection for natural (water) linear features which may also be used for travel. We studied the selection of water and anthropogenic linear features by 52 resident wolves (Canis lupus x lycaon) over four years across three study areas in northern Ontario that varied in degrees of forestry activity and human disturbance. We used Euclidean distance-based resource selection functions (mixed-effects logistic regression) at the seasonal range scale with random coefficients for distance to water linear features, primary/secondary roads/railways, and hydro lines, and tertiary roads to estimate the strength of selection for each linear feature and for several habitat types, while accounting for availability of each feature. Next, we investigated the trade-off between selection for anthropogenic and water linear features. Wolves selected both anthropogenic and water linear features; selection for anthropogenic features was stronger than for water during the rendezvous season. Selection for anthropogenic linear features increased with increasing density of these features on the landscape, while selection for natural linear features declined, indicating compensatory selection of anthropogenic linear features. These results have implications for woodland caribou conservation. Prey encounter rates between wolves and caribou seem to be strongly influenced by increasing linear feature densities. This behavioral mechanism-a compensatory functional response to anthropogenic linear feature density resulting in decreased use of natural travel corridors-has negative consequences for the viability of woodland caribou.

Spatial self-organization can occur in many ecosystems with important effects on food web dynamics and the maintenance of biodiversity. The consumer-resource interaction is known to generate spatial patterning, but only a few empirical studies have investigated the effect of the consumer on resource distribution. Here we report results from a large aquatic mesocosm experiment used to investigate the effect of the consumer Daphnia magna on the distribution of its resource, the green algae Chlorella vulgaris. We maintained large tanks with capacity for 26 ,000 L with either algae or both algae and Daphnia in different temperature conditions. We found that the presence of D. magna inhibited spatial structure in algal distribution that arose as a consequence of increasing temperature. We conjecture that this homogenization effect might be caused by a combination of high mobility combined with high rates of algal consumption by Daphnia. Our study emphasizes the importance of both local constraints on growth and behavioral responses in either promoting or suppressing spatial self-organization in natural populations., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Resource selection of herbivores is a complex ecological process that operates in relation to biological or non-biological factors, which may affect the feeding and movement, and subsequently their spatial distribution and environmental stress. Here, we estimated moose (Alces alces cameloides) resource selection for habitat variables and the effect of interspecific interactions related to roe deer (Capreolus pygargus bedfordi) on its population distribution and environmental stress in the Khingan Mountain region of northeast China at local and regional scales. Different response patterns of moose resource selection, spatial distribution, and environmental stress to interspecific interaction-linked habitat factors were shown at the two scales. A general ecological chain, response of moose to interspecific interaction-linked habitat factors, was exhibited at the regional scale, and at the local scale, heterogeneous responses, linkages of habitat selection and environmental stress of moose population might be driven by different interspecific interaction patterns. Our study firstly suggested that moose resource selection, food availability, diet quality, population density and environmental stress indicators were impacted by interactions with the distribution of other sympatric herbivore species and showed differences in ecological response chains at various spatial scales. These findings are useful for sympatric herbivore assembly conservation, habitat quality monitoring and management., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing financial interests.

The use of multiple working hypotheses to gain strong inference is widely promoted as a means to enhance the effectiveness of scientific investigation. Only 21 of 100 randomly selected studies from the ecological and evolutionary literature tested more than one hypothesis and only eight tested more than two hypotheses. The surprising rarity of application of multiple working hypotheses suggests that this gap between theory and practice might reflect some fundamental issues. Here, we identify several intellectual and practical barriers that discourage us from using multiple hypotheses in our scientific investigation. While scientists have developed a number of ways to avoid biases, such as the use of double-blind controls, we suspect that few scientists are fully aware of the potential influence of cognitive bias on their decisions and they have not yet adopted many techniques available to overcome intellectual and practical barriers in order to improve scientific investigation.

While collective decision-making is recognised as a significant contributor to fitness in social species, the opposite outcome is also logically possible. We show that collective movement decisions guided by individual bison sharing faulty information about habitat quality promoted the use of ecological traps. The frequent, but short-lived, associations of bison with different spatial knowledge led to a population-wide shift from avoidance to selection of agricultural patches over 9 years in and around Prince Albert National Park, Canada. Bison were more likely to travel to an agricultural patch for the first time by following conspecifics already familiar with agricultural patches. Annual adult mortality increased by 12% due to hunting of bison on agricultural lands. Maladaptive social behaviour accordingly was a major force that contributed to a ~50% population decline in less than a decade. In human-altered landscapes, social learning by group-living species can lead to fitness losses, particularly in fusion-fission societies., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Predicting the ecological responses to climate change is particularly challenging, because organisms might be affected simultaneously by the synergistic effects of multiple environmental stressors. Global warming is often accompanied by declining calcium concentration in many freshwater ecosystems. Although there is growing evidence that these changes in water chemistry and thermal conditions can influence ecosystem dynamics, little information is currently available about how these synergistic environmental stressors could influence the behaviour of aquatic organisms. Here, we tested whether the combined effects of calcium and temperature affect movement parameters (average speed, mean turning frequency and mean-squared displacement) of the planktonic Daphnia magna , using a full factorial design and exposing Daphnia individuals to a range of realistic levels of temperature and calcium concentration. We found that movement increased with both temperature and calcium concentration, but temperature effects became considerably weaker when individuals were exposed to calcium levels close to survival limits documented for several Daphnia species, signalling a strong interaction effect. These results support the notion that changes in water chemistry might have as strong an effect as projected changes in temperature on movement rates of Daphnia , suggesting that even sublethal levels of calcium decline could have a considerable impact on the dynamics of freshwater ecosystems.

Many ecosystems develop strikingly regular spatial patterns because of small-scale interactions between organisms, a process generally referred to as spatial self-organization. Self-organized spatial patterns are important determinants of the functioning of ecosystems, promoting the growth and survival of the involved organisms, and affecting the capacity of the organisms to cope with changing environmental conditions. The predominant explanation for self-organized pattern formation is spatial heterogeneity in establishment, growth and mortality, resulting from the self-organization processes. A number of recent studies, however, have revealed that movement of organisms can be an important driving process creating extensive spatial patterning in many ecosystems. Here, we review studies that detail movement-based pattern formation in contrasting ecological settings. Our review highlights that a common principle, where movement of organisms is density-dependent, explains observed spatial regular patterns in all of these studies. This principle, well known to physics as the Cahn-Hilliard principle of phase separation, has so-far remained unrecognized as a general mechanism for self-organized complexity in ecology. Using the examples presented in this paper, we explain how this movement principle can be discerned in ecological settings, and clarify how to test this mechanism experimentally. Our study highlights that animal movement, both in isolation and in unison with other processes, is an important mechanism for regular pattern formation in ecosystems., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Background: Where apex predators move on the landscape influences ecosystem structure and function and is therefore key to effective landscape-level management and species-specific conservation. However the factors underlying predator distribution patterns within functional ecosystems are poorly understood. Predator movement should be sensitive to the spatial patterns of inter-specific competitors, spatial variation in prey density, and landscape attributes that increase individual prey vulnerability. We investigated the relative role of these fundamental factors on seasonal resource utilization by a globally endangered apex carnivore, the African lion (Panthera leo) in Tanzania's Serengeti National Park. Lion space use was represented by novel landscape-level, modified utilization distributions (termed "localized density distributions") created from telemetry relocations of individual lions from multiple neighbouring prides. Spatial patterns of inter-specific competitors were similarly determined from telemetry re-locations of spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), this system's primary competitor for lions; prey distribution was derived from 18 months of detailed census data; and remote sensing data was used to represent relevant habitat attributes., Results: Lion space use was consistently influenced by landscape attributes that increase individual prey vulnerability to predation. Wet season activity, when available prey were scarce, was concentrated near embankments, which provide ambush opportunities, and dry season activity, when available prey were abundant, near remaining water sources where prey occurrence is predictable. Lion space use patterns were positively associated with areas of high prey biomass, but only in the prey abundant dry season. Finally, at the broad scale of this analysis, lion and hyena space use was positively correlated in the comparatively prey-rich dry season and unrelated in the wet season, suggesting lion movement was unconstrained by the spatial patterns of their main inter-specific competitors., Conclusions: The availability of potential prey and vulnerability of that prey to predation both motivate lion movement decisions, with their relative importance apparently mediated by overall prey abundance. With practical and theoretical implications, these results suggest that while top carnivores are consistently cognizant of how landscape features influence individual prey vulnerability, they also adopt a flexible approach to range use by adjusting spatial behaviour according to fluctuations in local prey abundance.

Ecosystems exhibit surprising regularities in structure and function across terrestrial and aquatic biomes worldwide. We assembled a global data set for 2260 communities of large mammals, invertebrates, plants, and plankton. We find that predator and prey biomass follow a general scaling law with exponents consistently near ¾. This pervasive pattern implies that the structure of the biomass pyramid becomes increasingly bottom-heavy at higher biomass. Similar exponents are obtained for community production-biomass relations, suggesting conserved links between ecosystem structure and function. These exponents are similar to many body mass allometries, and yet ecosystem scaling emerges independently from individual-level scaling, which is not fully understood. These patterns suggest a greater degree of ecosystem-level organization than previously recognized and a more predictive approach to ecological theory., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

1. Although local variation in territorial predator density is often correlated with habitat quality, the causal mechanism underlying this frequently observed association is poorly understood and could stem from facultative adjustment in either group size or territory size. 2. To test between these alternative hypotheses, we used a novel statistical framework to construct a winter population-level utilization distribution for wolves (Canis lupus) in northern Ontario, which we then linked to a suite of environmental variables to determine factors influencing wolf space use. Next, we compared habitat quality metrics emerging from this analysis as well as an independent measure of prey abundance, with pack size and territory size to investigate which hypothesis was most supported by the data. 3. We show that wolf space use patterns were concentrated near deciduous, mixed deciduous/coniferous and disturbed forest stands favoured by moose (Alces alces), the predominant prey species in the diet of wolves in northern Ontario, and in proximity to linear corridors, including shorelines and road networks remaining from commercial forestry activities. 4. We then demonstrate that landscape metrics of wolf habitat quality - projected wolf use, probability of moose occupancy and proportion of preferred land cover classes - were inversely related to territory size but unrelated to pack size. 5. These results suggest that wolves in boreal ecosystems alter territory size, but not pack size, in response to local variation in habitat quality. This could be an adaptive strategy to balance trade-offs between territorial defence costs and energetic gains due to resource acquisition. That pack size was not responsive to habitat quality suggests that variation in group size is influenced by other factors such as intraspecific competition between wolf packs., (© 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.)

Movement patterns offer a rich source of information on animal behaviour and the ecological significance of landscape attributes. This is especially useful for species occupying remote landscapes where direct behavioural observations are limited. In this study, we fit a mechanistic model of animal cognition and movement to GPS positional data of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou; Gmelin 1788) collected over a wide range of ecological conditions. The model explicitly tracks individual animal informational state over space and time, with resulting parameter estimates that have direct cognitive and ecological meaning. Three biotic landscape attributes were hypothesized to motivate caribou movement: forage abundance (dietary digestible biomass), wolf (Canis lupus; Linnaeus, 1758) density and moose (Alces alces; Linnaeus, 1758) habitat. Wolves are the main predator of caribou in this system and moose are their primary prey. Resulting parameter estimates clearly indicated that forage abundance is an important driver of caribou movement patterns, with predator and moose avoidance often having a strong effect, but not for all individuals. From the cognitive perspective, our results support the notion that caribou rely on limited sensory inputs from their surroundings, as well as on long-term spatial memory, to make informed movement decisions. Our study demonstrates how sensory, memory and motion capacities may interact with ecological fitness covariates to influence movement decisions by free-ranging animals., (© 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.)

Energetic balance is a central driver of individual survival and population change, yet estimating energetic costs in free- and wide-ranging animals presents a significant challenge. Animal-borne activity monitors (using accelerometer technology) present a promising method of meeting this challenge and open new avenues for exploring energetics in natural settings. To determine the behaviours and estimated energetic costs associated with a given activity level, three captive reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) at the Toronto Zoo were fitted with collars and observed for 53 h. Activity patterns were then measured over 13 months for 131 free-ranging woodland caribou (R. t. caribou) spanning 450,000 km(2) in northern Ontario. The captive study revealed a positive but decelerating relationship between activity level and energetic costs inferred from previous behavioural studies. Field-based measures of activity were modelled against individual displacement, vegetation abundance (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), snow depth and temperature, and the best fit model included all parameters and explained over half of the variation in the data. Individual displacement was positively related to activity levels, suggesting that broad differences in energetic demands are influenced by variation in movement rates. After accounting for displacement, activity was highest at intermediate levels of vegetation abundance, presumably due to foraging behaviour. Snow depth, probably associated with digging for winter forage, moderately increased activity. Activity levels increased significantly at the coldest winter temperatures, suggesting the use of behavioural thermoregulation by caribou. These interpretations of proximate causal factors should be regarded as hypotheses subject to validation under normal field conditions. These results illustrate the landscape characteristics that increase energetic demands for caribou and confirm the great potential for the use of accelerometry in studies of animal energetics., (© 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.)

Understanding how entire ecosystems maintain stability in the face of climatic and human disturbance is one of the most fundamental challenges in ecology. Theory suggests that a crucial factor determining the degree of ecosystem stability is simply the degree of synchrony with which different species in ecological food webs respond to environmental stochasticity. Ecosystems in which all food-web pathways are affected similarly by external disturbance should amplify variability in top carnivore abundance over time due to population interactions, whereas ecosystems in which a large fraction of pathways are nonresponsive or even inversely responsive to external disturbance will have more constant levels of abundance at upper trophic levels. To test the mechanism underlying this hypothesis, we used over half a century of demographic data for multiple species in the Serengeti (Tanzania) ecosystem to measure the degree of synchrony to variation imposed by an external environmental driver, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO effects were mediated largely via changes in dry-season vs. wet-season rainfall and consequent changes in vegetation availability, propagating via bottom-up effects to higher levels of the Serengeti food web to influence herbivores, predators and parasites. Some species in the Serengeti food web responded to the influence of ENSO in opposite ways, whereas other species were insensitive to variation in ENSO. Although far from conclusive, our results suggest that a diffuse mixture of herbivore responses could help buffer top carnivores, such as Serengeti lions, from variability in climate. Future global climate changes that favor some pathways over others, however, could alter the effectiveness of such processes in the future.

Within the rapidly developing field of movement ecology, much attention has been given to studying the movement of individuals within a subset of their population's occupied range. Our understanding of the effects of landscape heterogeneity on animal movement is still fairly limited as it requires studying the movement of multiple individuals across a variety of environmental conditions. Gaining deeper understanding of the environmental drivers of movement is a crucial component of predictive models of population spread and habitat selection and may help inform management and conservation. In Ontario, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) occur along a wide geographical gradient ranging from the boreal forest to the Hudson Bay floodplains. We used high-resolution GPS data, collected from 114 individuals across a 450000 km(2) area in northern Ontario, to link movement behaviour to underlying local environmental variables associated with habitat permeability, predation risk and forage availability. We show that a great deal of observed variability in movement patterns across space and time can be attributed to local environmental conditions, with residual individual differences that may reflect spatial population structure. We discuss our results in the context of current knowledge of movement and caribou ecology and highlight potential applications of our approach to the study of wide-ranging animals., (© 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.)

1. Despite the popular use of diffusion models to predict the spatial spread of populations over time, we currently know little about how diffusion rates change with the state of the environment or the internal condition of individuals. To address this gap in our understanding, we measured rates of spread for many populations of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus in a suite of well-replicated experiments. 2. In one set of experiments, we manipulated food availability and population density along a continuous range of densities. In a second set, we manipulated the internal state of entire populations via food deprivation and exposure to predator kairomones. 3. Across replicate populations, diffusion rates were positively correlated with conspecific density. Diffusion rates were negatively correlated with food availability, especially when conspecific density was high. Diffusion rates of food-deprived populations or those exposed to predation risk were lower than controls. 4. Our results provide direct experimental evidence that rates of population spread are conditional on population density, food availability, body condition and predation risk., (© 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.)

The functional response is a fundamental model of the relationship between consumer intake rate and resource abundance. The random walk is a fundamental model of animal movement and is well approximated by simple diffusion. Both models are central to our understanding of numerous ecological processes but are rarely linked in ecological theory. To derive a synthetic model, we draw on the common logical premise underlying these models and show how the diffusion and consumption rates of consumers depend on elementary attributes of naturally occurring consumer-resource interactions: the abundance, spatial aggregation, and traveling speed of resources as well as consumer handling time and directional persistence. We show that resource aggregation may lead to increased consumer diffusion and, in the case of mobile resources, reduced consumption rate. Resource-dependent movement patterns have traditionally been attributed to area-restricted search, reflecting adaptive decision making by the consumer. Our synthesis provides a simple alternative hypothesis that such patterns could also arise as a by-product of statistical movement mechanics.

The Serengeti wildebeest migration is a rare and spectacular example of a once-common biological phenomenon. A proposed road project threatens to bisect the Serengeti ecosystem and its integrity. The precautionary principle dictates that we consider the possible consequences of a road completely disrupting the migration. We used an existing spatially-explicit simulation model of wildebeest movement and population dynamics to explore how placing a barrier to migration across the proposed route (thus creating two disjoint but mobile subpopulations) might affect the long-term size of the wildebeest population. Our simulation results suggest that a barrier to migration--even without causing habitat loss--could cause the wildebeest population to decline by about a third. The driver of this decline is the effect of habitat fragmentation (even without habitat loss) on the ability of wildebeest to effectively track temporal shifts in high-quality forage resources across the landscape. Given the important role of the wildebeest migration for a number of key ecological processes, these findings have potentially important ramifications for ecosystem biodiversity, structure, and function in the Serengeti.

We outline how principles of optimal foraging developed for diet and food patch selection might be applied to movement behaviour expressed over larger spatial and temporal scales. Our focus is on large mammalian herbivores, capable of carrying global positioning system (GPS) collars operating through the seasonal cycle and dependent on vegetation resources that are fixed in space but seasonally variable in availability and nutritional value. The concept of intermittent movement leads to the recognition of distinct movement modes over a hierarchy of spatio-temporal scales. Over larger scales, periods with relatively low displacement may indicate settlement within foraging areas, habitat units or seasonal ranges. Directed movements connect these patches or places used for other activities. Selection is expressed by switches in movement mode and the intensity of utilization by the settlement period relative to the area covered. The type of benefit obtained during settlement periods may be inferred from movement patterns, local environmental features, or the diel activity schedule. Rates of movement indicate changing costs in time and energy over the seasonal cycle, between years and among regions. GPS telemetry potentially enables large-scale movement responses to changing environmental conditions to be linked to population performance.

Constant harvest policies for fish and wildlife populations can lead to population collapse in the face of stochastic variation in population growth rates. Here, we show that weak compensatory response by resource users or managers to changing levels of resource abundance can readily induce harvest cycles that accentuate the risk of catastrophic population collapse. Dynamic system models incorporating this mix of feedback predict that cycles or quasi-cycles with decadal periodicity should commonly occur in harvested wildlife populations, with effort and quotas lagging far behind resources, whereas harvests should exhibit lags of intermediate length. Empirical data gathered from three hunted populations of white-tailed deer and moose were consistent with these predictions of both underlying behavioral causes and dynamical consequences.

Habitat quality is typically inferred by assuming a direct relationship between consumer density and resource abundance, although it has been suggested that consumer fitness may be a more accurate measure of habitat quality. We examined density vs. fitness-based measures of habitat quality for lions in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. A 40-year average of female reproductive success (yearling cubs per female) was best explained by proximity to river confluences, whereas patterns of productivity (yearling cubs per km(2)) and adult female density (individuals per km(2)) were associated with more general measures of habitat quality and areas of shelter in poor habitat. This suggests that density may not accurately distinguish between high-quality 'source' areas and low-quality sites that merely provide refuges for effectively non-reproductive individuals. Our results indicate that density may be a misleading indicator of real estate value, particularly for populations that do not conform to an ideal free distribution.

The assumption that mortality risk increases with dispersal distance has rarely been tested. We compared patterns of natal dispersal in the American marten (Martes americana) between a large regenerating forest landscape and an uncut landscape that was dominated by more mature forest to test whether mortality risk increased with dispersal distance, and whether variation in mortality risk influenced dispersal distance. Mortality risk increased with dispersal distance in both landscape treatments, but the distance-dependent increase in mortality in the regenerating landscape was twice that in the uncut landscape. Differences in body condition, supported by other data on foraging efficiency, suggested that juveniles from the regenerating landscape were less able to cope with the energetic demands of dispersal compared with juveniles from older forests. Juveniles travelled shorter distances in the regenerating versus uncut landscape. These results implied that dispersal was costly in terms of juvenile survival and that mean dispersal distance was shaped, in part, by mortality risk.

Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the annual migration of the Serengeti wildebeest, but few studies have compared distribution patterns with environmental drivers. We used a rainfall-driven model of grass dynamics and wildebeest movement to generate simulated monthly wildebeest distributions, with wildebeest movement decisions depending on 14 candidate models of adaptive movement in response to resource availability. We used information-theoretic approaches to compare the fits of simulated and observed monthly distribution patterns at two spatial scales over a 3-year period. Models that included the intake rate and nitrogen (N) concentration of green grass and the suppressive effect of tree cover on grass biomass provided the best model fits at both spatial scales tested, suggesting that digestive constraints and protein requirements may play key roles in driving migratory behavior. The emergence of a migration was predicted to be dependent on the ability of the wildebeest to track changes in resource abundance at relatively large scales (>80-100 km). When movement decisions are based solely on local resource availability, the wildebeest fail to migrate across the ecosystem. Our study highlights the potentially key role of strong and countervailing seasonally driven rainfall and fertility gradients--a consistent feature of African savanna ecosystems--as drivers of long-distance seasonal migrations in ungulates.