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Mangrove shoreline retreat or advance is a natural process in a mangrove delta. However, due to various natural and anthropogenic stressors, mangrove shoreline retreat is the second largest cause of mangrove loss globally. It is important to understand the scale at which mangrove shoreline changes are causing biophysical changes along the mangrove shorelines and, in turn, understand if certain biophysical characteristics can explain the changes along the shoreline. This will help identify the response of mangroves to shoreline changes. Videography and spatial mapping were used to study temporarily and permanently changing mangrove shorelines in the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the world (~10,000 km 2 ), located in India and Bangladesh. Data was collected along a ~ 239 km shoreline at 54 sites. 36.4 % of all the studied shorelines were experiencing major retreat, 63.8 % and 27.2 % of all (major and minor) retreating areas had 1-25 % and > 25 % dead trees. The biophysical characteristics statistically (P < 0.0001) associated with retreating mangrove shorelines were - cliff-type shoreline profiles, number of dead trees, and absence of stream and grass, with shoreline profiles as the strongest predictor of shoreline retreat. Moreover, 68.7 % and 73 % of historically retreating shorelines had a cliff-type shoreline profile and Excoecaria agallocha as the dominating species, respectively. Moreover, due to the strong correlation between historical changes and current shoreline types, it was concluded that characteristics along the shoreline are partly a product of historical shoreline transitions. Thus, the present status of the shoreline can not only predict the history of the shoreline but can also give insights into the future biophysical changes in the mangrove forests., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Radhika Bhargava reports financial support was provided by National Geographic Society. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Alice Twomey reports financial support was provided by Australian Research Council. Catherine Lovelock reports financial support was provided by Australian Research Council. Nathan Waltham reports financial support was provided by James Cook University TropWATER., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Mangrove forests are a highly productive ecosystem with important potential to offset anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Mangroves are expected to respond differently to climate change compared to terrestrial forests owing to their location in the tidal environment and unique ecophysiological characteristics, but the magnitude of difference remains uncertain at the global scale. Here we use satellite observations to examine mean trends and interannual variability in the productivity of global mangrove forests and nearby terrestrial evergreen broadleaf forests from 2001 to 2020. Although both types of ecosystem experienced significant recent increases in productivity, mangroves exhibited a stronger increasing trend and greater interannual variability in productivity than evergreen broadleaf forests on three-quarters of their co-occurring coasts. The difference in productivity trends is attributed to the stronger CO 2 fertilization effect on mangrove photosynthesis, while the discrepancy in interannual variability is attributed to the higher sensitivities to variations in precipitation and sea level. Our results indicate that mangroves will have a faster increase in productivity than terrestrial forests in a CO 2 -rich future but may suffer more from deficits in water availability, highlighting a key difference between terrestrial and tidal ecosystems in their responses to climate change., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Coastal blue carbon ecosystems can be an important nature-based solution for mitigating climate change, when emphasis is given to their protection, management, and restoration. Globally, there has been a rapid increase in blue carbon research in the last few decades, with substantial investments on national scales by the European Union, the USA, Australia, Seychelles, and Belize. Blue carbon ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia are globally diverse, highly productive and could represent a global hotspot for carbon sequestration and storage. To guide future efforts, we conducted a systematic review of the available literature on two primary blue carbon ecosystems-seagrasses and mangroves-across 13 countries in South and Southeast Asia to assess existing national inventories, review current research trends and methodologies, and identify existing knowledge gaps. Information related to various aspects of seagrass and mangrove ecosystems was extracted from 432 research articles from 1967 to 2022. We find that: (1) blue carbon estimates in several countries have limited data, especially for seagrass meadows compared to mangrove ecosystems, although the highest reported carbon stocks were in Indonesia and the Philippines with 4,515 and 707 Tg within mangrove forest and 60.9 and 63.3 Tg within seagrass meadows, respectively; (2) there is a high difference in the quantity and quality of data between mangrove and seagrass ecosystems, and the methodologies used for blue carbon estimates are highly variable across countries; and (3) most studies on blue carbon stocks are spatially biased towards more familiar study areas of individual countries, than several lesser-known suspected blue carbon hotspots. In sum, our review demonstrates the paucity and variability in current research in the region, and highlights research frontiers that should be addressed by future research before the robust implementation of these ecosystems into national climate strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction's deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.778 times (90% range: 0.548-3.56) the actual deforestation rate. Moreover, variable importance analysis emphasised the strong influence of the deforestation projection approach. For the median jurisdiction, 68.0% of possible methods (90% range: 61.1%-85.6%) exceeded 15% uncertainty. Tropical and polar biomes exhibited larger uncertainties in carbon estimations. The use of sensitivity analyses, multi-model, and multi-source ensemble approaches could reduce variabilities and biases. These findings provide a roadmap for improving baseline estimations to enhance carbon market integrity and trust., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The author declares that he has no conflict of interest.

Mangroves continue to be threatened across their range by a mix of anthropogenic and climate change-related stress. Climate change-induced salinity is likely to alter the structure and functions of highly productive mangrove systems. However, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how rising salinity affects forest structure and functions because of the limited availability of mangrove field data. Therefore, based on extensive spatiotemporal mangrove data covering a large-scale salinity gradient, collected from the world's largest single tract mangrove ecosystem - the Bangladesh Sundarbans, we, aimed to examine (QI) how rising salinity influences forest structure (e.g., stand density, diversity, leaf area index (LAI), etc.), functions (e.g., carbon stocks, forest growth), nutrients availability, and functional traits (e.g., specific leaf area, wood density). We also wanted to know (QII) how forest functions interact (direct vs. indirect) with biotic (i.e., stand structure, species richness, etc.) and abiotic factors (salinity, nutrients, light availability, etc.). We also asked (QIII) whether the functional variable decreases disproportionately with salinity and applied the power-law (i.e., Y = a X b ) to the salinity and functional variable relationships. In this study, we found that rises in salinity significantly impede forest growth and produce less productive ecosystems dominated by dwarf species while reducing stand structural properties (i.e., tree height, basal area, dominant tree height, LAI), soil carbon (organic and root carbon), and macronutrient availability in the soil (e.g., NH4+, P, and K). Besides, species-specific leaf area (related to resource acquisition) also decreased with salinity, whereas wood density (related to resource conservation) increased. We observed a declining abundance of the salt-intolerant climax species (Heritiera fomes) and dominance of the salt-tolerant species (Excoecaria agallocha, Ceriops decandra) in the high saline areas. In the case of biotic and abiotic factors, salinity and salinity-driven gap fraction (high transmission of light) had a strong negative impact on functional variables, while nutrients and LAI had a positive impact. In addition, the power-law explained the consistent decline of functional variables with salinity. Our study disentangles the negative effects of salinity on site quality in the Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, and we recognize that nutrient availability and LAI are likely to buffer the less salt-tolerant species to maintain the ability to sequester carbon with sea-level rise. These novel findings advance our understanding of how a single stressor-salinity-can shape mangrove structure, functions, and productivity and offer decision makers a much-needed scientific basis for developing pragmatic ecosystem management and conservation plans in highly stressed coastal ecosystems across the globe., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability. 1 , 2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation, 3 but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Mangrove restoration has become a popular strategy to ensure the critical functions and economic benefits of this ecosystem. This study conducts a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature on the outcomes of mangrove restoration. On aggregate, restored mangroves provide higher ecosystem functions than unvegetated tidal flats but lower than natural mangrove stands (respectively RR' = 0.43, 95%CIs = 0.23 to 0.63; RR' = -0.21, 95%CIs = -0.34 to -0.08), while they perform on par with naturally-regenerated mangroves and degraded mangroves. However, restoration outcomes vary widely between functions and comparative bases, and are mediated by factors such as restoration age, species, and restoration method. Furthermore, mangrove restoration offers positive benefit-cost ratios ranging from 10.50 to 6.83 under variable discount rates (-2% to 8%), suggesting that mangrove restoration is a cost-effective form of ecosystem management. Overall, the results suggest that mangrove restoration has substantial potential to contribute to multiple policy objectives related to biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and sustainable development., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO 2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO 2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO 2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO 2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Despite the outsized role of mangrove forests in sustaining biodiversity, ecosystem function, and local livelihoods, the protection of these vital habitats through blue carbon financing has been limited. 1 , 2 Here, we quantify the extent of this missed conservation and financial opportunity, showing that the protection of ∼20% of the world's mangrove forests (2.6 Mha) can be funded through carbon financing. Of these investible areas, 1.1-1.3 Mha can be financially sustainable over a 30-year time frame based on carbon prices of US$5-9.4 t -1 CO 2 e. This contributes up to 29.8 MtCO 2 e year -1 and yields a return on investment of ∼US$3.7 billion per year. Our results point toward a disproportionately large potential of blue carbon finance that can be leveraged to meet national-level climate mitigation goals, particularly if combined with other conservation interventions that further safeguard carbon stocks and biodiversity in these irreplaceable forests. Robust information on return on investment highlights the potential for currently underutilized tropical coastal carbon credit projects., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Estuaries of Southeast Asia are increasingly impacted by land-cover changes and pollution. Here, our research objectives were to (1) determine the origins of nutrient loads along the Can Gio estuary (Vietnam) and (2) identify the processes that affect the nutrient pools during the monsoon. We constructed four 24-h time-series along the salinity gradient measuring nutrient concentrations and stable isotopes values. In the upper estuary, urban effluents from Ho Chi Minh City were the main input of nutrients, leading to dissolved oxygen saturation <20%. In the lower estuary, ammonium and nitrite concentration peaks were explained by mangrove export. No contribution from aquaculture was detected, as it represents <0.01% of the total river discharge. Along the salinity gradient, nutrient inputs were rapidly consumed, potentially by phytoplankton while nitrate dual-stable isotopes indicated that nitrification occurred. Thus, even in a large and productive estuary, urban wastewater can affect nutrient dynamics with potentially important ecological risks., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The cost-effective mitigation of climate change through nature-based carbon dioxide removal strategies has gained substantial policy attention. Inland and coastal wetlands (specifically boreal, temperate and tropical peatlands; tundra; floodplains; freshwater marshes; saltmarshes; and mangroves) are among the most efficient natural long-term carbon sinks. Yet, they also release methane (CH 4 ) that can offset the carbon they sequester. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis on wetland carbon dynamics to (i) determine their impact on climate using different metrics and time horizons, (ii) investigate the cost-effectiveness of wetland restoration for climate change mitigation, and (iii) discuss their suitability for inclusion in climate policy as negative emission technologies. Depending on metrics, a wetland can simultaneously be a net carbon sink (i.e. boreal and temperate peatlands net ecosystem carbon budget = -28.1 ± 19.13 gC m -2 y -1 ) but have a net warming effect on climate at the 100 years time-scale (i.e. boreal and temperate peatland sustained global warming potential = 298.2 ± 100.6 gCO 2 eq -1 m -2 y -1 ). This situation creates ambivalence regarding the effect of wetlands on global temperature. Moreover, our review reveals high heterogeneity among the (limited number of) studies that document wetland carbon budgets. We demonstrate that most coastal and inland wetlands have a net cooling effect as of today. This is explained by the limited CH 4 emissions that undisturbed coastal wetlands produce, and the long-term carbon sequestration performed by older inland wetlands as opposed to the short lifetime of CH 4 in the atmosphere. Analysis of wetland restoration costs relative to the amount of carbon they can sequester revealed that restoration is more cost-effective in coastal wetlands such as mangroves (US$1800 ton C -1 ) compared with inland wetlands (US$4200-49 200 ton C -1 ). We advise that for inland wetlands, priority should be given to conservation rather than restoration; while for coastal wetlands, both conservation and restoration may be effective techniques for climate change mitigation., Competing Interests: We declare we have no competing interests., (© 2020 The Author(s).)

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.5% (54,972 km 2 ) of mangrove systems were deltaic, 27.5% (37,411 km 2 ) were estuarine and 21.0% (28,493 km 2 ) were open coast, with lagoonal mangroves the least abundant (11.0%, 14,993 km 2 ). Mangroves were also classified based on their sedimentary setting, with carbonate mangroves being less abundant than terrigenous, representing just 9.6% of global coverage. Our typology provides a basis for future research to incorporate geomorphic and sedimentary setting in analyses. We present two examples of such applications. Firstly, based on change in extent between 1996 and 2016, we show while all types exhibited considerable declines in area, losses of lagoonal mangroves (- 6.9%) were nearly twice that of other types. Secondly, we quantify differences in aboveground biomass between mangroves of different types, with it being significantly lower in lagoonal mangroves. Overall, our biophysical typology provides a baseline for assessing restoration potential and for quantifying mangrove ecosystem service provision.

Globally, carbon-rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area. The sites are representative of contrasting hydrogeomorphic settings and also capture change over a 25-years LULCC chronosequence. Field-based assessments were conducted across 255 plots covering undisturbed and LULCC-affected mangroves (0-, 5-, 10-, 15- and 25-year-old post-harvest or regenerating forests as well as 15-year-old aquaculture ponds). Undisturbed mangroves stored total ecosystem carbon stocks of 182-2,730 (mean ± SD: 1,087 ± 584) Mg C/ha, with the large variation driven by hydrogeomorphic settings. The highest carbon stocks were found in estuarine interior (EI) mangroves, followed by open coast interior, open coast fringe and EI forests. Forest harvesting did not significantly affect soil carbon stocks, despite an elevated dead wood density relative to undisturbed forests, but it did remove nearly all live biomass. Aquaculture conversion removed 60% of soil carbon stock and 85% of live biomass carbon stock, relative to reference sites. By contrast, mangroves left to regenerate for more than 25 years reached the same level of biomass carbon compared to undisturbed forests, with annual biomass accumulation rates of 3.6 ± 1.1 Mg C ha -1  year -1 . This study shows that hydrogeomorphic setting controls natural dynamics of mangrove blue carbon stocks, while long-term land-use changes affect carbon loss and gain to a substantial degree. Therefore, current land-based climate policies must incorporate landscape and land-use characteristics, and their related carbon management consequences, for more effective emissions reduction targets and restoration outcomes., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Fragmentation is a major driver of ecosystem degradation, reducing the capacity of habitats to provide many important ecosystem services. Mangrove ecosystem services, such as erosion prevention, shoreline protection and mitigation of climate change (through carbon sequestration), depend on the size and arrangement of forest patches, but we know little about broad-scale patterns of mangrove forest fragmentation. Here we conduct a multi-scale analysis using global estimates of mangrove density and regional drivers of mangrove deforestation to map relationships between habitat loss and fragmentation. Mangrove fragmentation was ubiquitous; however, there are geographic disparities between mangrove loss and fragmentation; some regions, like Cambodia and the southern Caribbean, had relatively little loss, but their forests have been extensively fragmented. In Southeast Asia, a global hotspot of mangrove loss, the conversion of forests to aquaculture and rice plantations were the biggest drivers of loss (>50%) and fragmentation. Surprisingly, conversion of forests to oil palm plantations, responsible for >15% of all deforestation in Southeast Asia, was only weakly correlated with mangrove fragmentation. Thus, the management of different deforestation drivers may increase or decrease fragmentation. Our findings suggest that large scale monitoring of mangrove forests should also consider fragmentation. This work highlights that regional priorities for conservation based on forest loss rates can overlook fragmentation and associated loss of ecosystem functionality.

Inclusion of ecosystem-based approaches in the governmental masterplan for tsunami mitigation in Palu, Indonesia may make the city a rare case study for ecological disaster risk reduction in tropical biodiversity hotspots. Such case studies are a key pillar of the United Nations (UN) Sendai Framework to protect coastal societies globally., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

More than two-thirds of global biomass consists of vascular plants. A portion of the detritus they generate is carried into the oceans from land and highly productive blue carbon ecosystems-salt marshes, mangrove forests, and seagrass meadows. This large detrital input receives scant attention in current models of the global carbon cycle, though for blue carbon ecosystems, increasingly well-constrained estimates of biomass, productivity, and carbon fluxes, reviewed in this article, are now available. We show that the fate of this detritus differs markedly from that of strictly marine origin, because the former contains lignocellulose-an energy-rich polymer complex of cellulose, hemicelluloses, and lignin that is resistant to enzymatic breakdown. This complex can be depolymerized for nutritional purposes by specialized marine prokaryotes, fungi, protists, and invertebrates using enzymes such as glycoside hydrolases and lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases to release sugar monomers. The lignin component, however, is less readily depolymerized, and detritus therefore becomes lignin enriched, particularly in anoxic sediments, and forms a major carbon sink in blue carbon ecosystems. Eventual lignin breakdown releases a wide variety of small molecules that may contribute significantly to the oceanic pool of recalcitrant dissolved organic carbon. Marine carbon fluxes and sinks dependent on lignocellulosic detritus are important ecosystem services that are vulnerable to human interventions. These services must be considered when protecting blue carbon ecosystems and planning initiatives aimed at mitigating anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Mangroves shift from carbon sinks to sources when affected by anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Yet, the magnitude and temporal scale of these impacts are largely unknown. We undertook a systematic review to examine the influence of LULCC on mangrove carbon stocks and soil greenhouse gas (GHG) effluxes. A search of 478 data points from the peer-reviewed literature revealed a substantial reduction of biomass (82% ± 35%) and soil (54% ± 13%) carbon stocks due to LULCC. The relative loss depended on LULCC type, time since LULCC and geographical and climatic conditions of sites. We also observed that the loss of soil carbon stocks was linked to the decreased soil carbon content and increased soil bulk density over the first 100 cm depth. We found no significant effect of LULCC on soil GHG effluxes. Regeneration efforts (i.e. restoration, rehabilitation and afforestation) led to biomass recovery after ~40 years. However, we found no clear patterns of mangrove soil carbon stock re-establishment following biomass recovery. Our findings suggest that regeneration may help restore carbon stocks back to pre-disturbed levels over decadal to century time scales only, with a faster rate for biomass recovery than for soil carbon stocks. Therefore, improved mangrove ecosystem management by preventing further LULCC and promoting rehabilitation is fundamental for effective climate change mitigation policy., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The term Blue Carbon (BC) was first coined a decade ago to describe the disproportionately large contribution of coastal vegetated ecosystems to global carbon sequestration. The role of BC in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. To help prioritise future research, we assembled leading experts in the field to agree upon the top-ten pending questions in BC science. Understanding how climate change affects carbon accumulation in mature BC ecosystems and during their restoration was a high priority. Controversial questions included the role of carbonate and macroalgae in BC cycling, and the degree to which greenhouse gases are released following disturbance of BC ecosystems. Scientists seek improved precision of the extent of BC ecosystems; techniques to determine BC provenance; understanding of the factors that influence sequestration in BC ecosystems, with the corresponding value of BC; and the management actions that are effective in enhancing this value. Overall this overview provides a comprehensive road map for the coming decades on future research in BC science.

Dispersal allows species to shift their distributions in response to changing climate conditions. As a result, dispersal is considered a key process contributing to a species' long-term persistence. For many passive dispersers, fluid dynamics of wind and water fuel these movements and different species have developed remarkable adaptations for utilizing this energy to reach and colonize suitable habitats. The seafaring propagules (fruits and seeds) of mangroves represent an excellent example of such passive dispersal. Mangroves are halophytic woody plants that grow in the intertidal zones along tropical and subtropical shorelines and produce hydrochorous propagules with high dispersal potential. This results in exceptionally large coastal ranges across vast expanses of ocean and allows species to shift geographically and track the conditions to which they are adapted. This is particularly relevant given the challenges presented by rapid sea-level rise, higher frequency and intensity of storms, and changes in regional precipitation and temperature regimes. However, despite its importance, the underlying drivers of mangrove dispersal have typically been studied in isolation, and a conceptual synthesis of mangrove oceanic dispersal across spatial scales is lacking. Here, we review current knowledge on mangrove propagule dispersal across the various stages of the dispersal process. Using a general framework, we outline the mechanisms and ecological processes that are known to modulate the spatial patterns of mangrove dispersal. We show that important dispersal factors remain understudied and that adequate empirical data on the determinants of dispersal are missing for most mangrove species. This review particularly aims to provide a baseline for developing future research agendas and field campaigns, filling current knowledge gaps and increasing our understanding of the processes that shape global mangrove distributions., (© 2019 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Mangrove forests are extremely productive, with rates of growth rivaling some terrestrial tropical rainforests. However, our understanding of the full suite of processes underpinning carbon exchange with the atmosphere and near shore-waters, the allocation of carbon in mangroves, and fluxes of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) are limited to a handful of studies. This constrains the scientific basis from which to advocate for greater support for and investment in mangrove restoration and conservation. Improving understanding is urgently needed given the on-going landuse pressures mangrove forests face, particularly throughout much of Southeast Asia. The current study reduces uncertainties by providing a holistic synthesis of the net potential GHG mitigation benefits resulting from rehabilitating mangroves and established forests. Rehabilitating sites from two contrasting locations representative of high (Tiwoho) and low (Tanakeke) productivity systems on the island of Sulawesi (Indonesia) were used as case studies to compare against established mangroves. A carbon budget, allocation and pathways model was developed to account for inputs (carbon sequestration) and outputs (GHG emissions of CO 2 , N 2 O and CH 4 ) to estimate Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) and Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB). Our results indicate that while Tiwoho's rehabilitating sites and established mangroves represent a significant carbon sink (-10.6 ± 0.9 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 and 16.1 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 respectively), the low productivity of Tanakeke has resulted in minimal reductions to date (0.7 ± 0.3 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 ). Including NEP from mangrove-allied primary producer communities (e.g. benthic algae) and the portion of dissolved inorganic carbon exported from mangroves (EX DIC ) that remains within the water column may drive overall removals considerably upwards in established forests to -37.2 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 . These values are higher than terrestrial forests and strengthen the evidence base needed to underpin the use of forest carbon financing mechanisms for mangrove restoration., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The loss and degradation of mangroves can result in potentially significant sources of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For mangrove rehabilitation carbon projects, quantifying GHG emissions as forests regenerate is a key accounting requirement. The current study is one of the first attempts to systematically quantify emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and methane (CH 4 ) from: 1) aquaculture ponds, 2) rehabilitating mangroves, and 3) intact mangrove sites and frame GHG flux within the context of landuse change. In-situ static chamber measurements were made at three contrasting locations in Sulawesi, Indonesia. The influence of key biophysical variables known to affect GHG flux was also assessed. Peak GHG flux was observed at rehabilitating (32.8 ± 2.1 Mg CO 2 e ha -1  y -1 ) and intact, mature reference sites (43.8 ± 4.5 Mg CO 2 e ha -1  y -1 ) and a dry, exposed disused aquaculture pond (30.6 ± 1.9 Mg CO 2 e ha -1  y -1 ). Emissions were negligible at low productivity rehabilitating sites with high hydroperiod (mean 1.0 ± 0.1 Mg CO 2 e ha -1  y -1 ) and an impounded, operational aquaculture pond (1.1 ± 0.2 Mg CO 2 e ha -1  y -1 ). Heterogeneity in biophysical conditions and geomorphic position exerted a strong influence on GHG flux, with the longer hydroperiod and higher soil moisture content of seaward fringing mangroves correlated with decreased fluxes. A greater abundance of Mud lobster mounds and root structures in landward mangroves correlated to higher flux. When viewed across a landuse change continuum, our results suggest that the initial conversion of mangroves to aquaculture ponds releases extremely high rates of GHGs. Furthermore, the re-institution of hydrological regimes in dry, disused aquaculture ponds to facilitate tidal flushing is instrumental in rapidly mediating GHG flux, leading to a significant reduction in baseline emissions. This is an important consideration for forest carbon project proponents seeking to maximise creditable GHG emissions reductions and removals., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Choosing from a range of environmental management options can be more effective when considering stakeholder preferences. This is particularly true in the coastal tropics, where numerous actors and institutions intersect to shape environmental governance. Here, we investigate stakeholder preferences for an array of options regarding the sustainable development and conservation of mangrove forests. These include: payments for ecosystem services (PES), ecotourism, selling non-timber forest products, bio-charcoal production, and forest restoration financed via corporate social responsibility (CSR). Empirical studies from two socio-ecological settings in Thailand reveal the preferences of government agencies, corporations, municipal and village heads, and several community associations (fishers, senior citizens, housewives, environmentalists, salt-flat workers, oil palm plantation owners). Interviews and participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) elicited preferences based on the likelihood of achieving favourable environmental, economic, and social outcomes. Findings reveal (1) PES was favoured - although motivations were not driven solely by the prospect of financial gain, but by the land tenure security, collaborations, and long-term ecological benefits that were perceived to occur as a result; (2) PES for local services (water quality) were preferred over global services (climate change mitigation); (3) criteria related to wellbeing, livelihoods, and environmental stewardship are influenced by broad cultural and political ideologies, rather than site-specific characteristics; and (4) clear tensions both between private and public actors, and between national and local actors. Our study highlights the importance of involving all informed stakeholders in the decision-making process in order to understand the complex reasons driving environmental management preferences, and to gain greater acceptance of biodiversity conservation and natural resource management actions. We also call for greater transparency in MCDA studies by presenting more of the qualitative data used to subjectively construct the quantitative criteria., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

To date, discourse associated with the potential application of "blue carbon" within real-world carbon markets has focused on blue carbon as a mitigation strategy in the context of avoided deforestation (e.g., REDD+). Here, we report structural dynamics and carbon storage gains from mangrove sites that have undergone rehabilitation to ascertain whether reforestation can complement conservation activities and warrant project investment. Replicated sites at two locations with contrasting geomorphic conditions were selected, Tiwoho and Tanakeke on the island of Sulawesi, Indonesia. These locations are representative of high (Tiwoho, deep muds and silty substrates) and low (Tanakeke, shallow, coralline sands) productivity mangrove ecosystems. They share a similar management history of clearing and conversion for aquaculture before restorative activities were undertaken using the practice of Ecological Mangrove Rehabilitation (EMR). Species diversity and mean biomass carbon storage gains after 10 yr of regrowth from the high productivity sites of Tiwoho (49.2 ± 9.1 Mg C·ha -1 ·yr -1 ) are already almost of one-third of mean biomass stocks exhibited by mature forests (167.8 ± 30.3 Mg C·ha -1 ·yr -1 ). Tiwoho's EMR sites, on average, will have offset all biomass C that was initially lost through conversion within the next 11 yr, a finding in marked contrast to the minimal carbon gains observed on the low productivity, low diversity, coral atoll EMR sites of Tanakeke (1.1 ± 0.4 Mg C·ha -1 ·yr -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of geomorphic and biophysical site selection if the primary purpose of EMR is intended to maximize carbon sequestration gains., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Carbon fixed by vegetated coastal ecosystems (blue carbon) can mitigate anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, though its effectiveness differs with the spatial scale of interest. A literature review compiling carbon sequestration rates within key ecosystems confirms that blue carbon ecosystems are the most efficient natural carbon sinks at the plot scale, though some overlooked biogeochemical processes may lead to overestimation. Moreover, the limited spatial extent of coastal habitats minimizes their potential at the global scale, only buffering 0.42% of the global fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2014. Still, blue carbon plays a role for countries with moderate fossil fuel emissions and extensive coastlines. In 2014, mangroves mitigated greater than 1% of national fossil fuel emissions for countries such as Bangladesh, Colombia and Nigeria. Considering that the Paris Agreement is based on nationally determined contributions, we propose that mangrove blue carbon may contribute to climate change mitigation at this scale in some instances alongside other blue carbon ecosystems., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

Given predicted increases in urbanization in tropical and subtropical regions, understanding the processes shaping urban coral reefs may be essential for anticipating future conservation challenges. We used a case study approach to identify unifying patterns of urban coral reefs and clarify the effects of urbanization on hard coral assemblages. Data were compiled from 11 cities throughout East and Southeast Asia, with particular focus on Singapore, Jakarta, Hong Kong, and Naha (Okinawa). Our review highlights several key characteristics of urban coral reefs, including "reef compression" (a decline in bathymetric range with increasing turbidity and decreasing water clarity over time and relative to shore), dominance by domed coral growth forms and low reef complexity, variable city-specific inshore-offshore gradients, early declines in coral cover with recent fluctuating periods of acute impacts and rapid recovery, and colonization of urban infrastructure by hard corals. We present hypotheses for urban reef community dynamics and discuss potential of ecological engineering for corals in urban areas., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This study maps distribution and spatial congruence between Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) and species richness of IUCN listed conservation-dependent and endemic avian fauna in Palawan, Philippines. Grey Level Co-Occurrence Texture Matrices (GLCMs) extracted from Landsat and ALOS-PALSAR were used in conjunction with local field data to model and map local-scale field AGB using the Random Forest algorithm (r = 0.92 and RMSE = 31.33 Mg·ha-1). A support vector regression (SVR) model was used to identify the factors influencing variation in avian species richness at a 1km scale. AGB is one of the most important determinants of avian species richness for the study area. Topographic factors and anthropogenic factors such as distance from the roads were also found to strongly influence avian species richness. Hotspots of high AGB and high species richness concentration were mapped using hotspot analysis and the overlaps between areas of high AGB and avian species richness was calculated. Results show that the overlaps between areas of high AGB with high IUCN red listed avian species richness and endemic avian species richness were fairly limited at 13% and 8% at the 1-km scale. The overlap between 1) low AGB and low IUCN richness, and 2) low AGB and low endemic avian species richness was higher at 36% and 12% respectively. The enhanced capacity to spatially map the correlation between AGB and avian species richness distribution will further assist the conservation and protection of forest areas and threatened avian species.

With rapid urbanization in the coastal zone and increasing habitat losses, it is imperative to understand how urban development affects coastal biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Furthermore, it is important to understand how habitat fragments can best be incorporated into broader land use planning and coastal management, in order to maximize the environmental benefits they provide. In this study, we characterized the trade-offs between (a) urban development and individual mangrove environmental indicators (habitat quality and ecosystem services), and (b) between different environmental indicators in the tropical nation of Singapore. A range of biological, biophysical, and cultural indicators, including carbon, charcoal production, support for offshore fisheries, recreation, and habitat quality for a threatened species were quantified using field-based, remote sensing, and expert survey methods. The shape of the trade-off Pareto frontiers was analyzed to assess the sensitivity of environmental indicators for development. When traded off individually with urban development, four out of five environmental indicators were insensitive to development, meaning that relatively minor degradation of the indicator occurred while development was below a certain threshold, although indicator loss accelerated once this threshold was reached. Most of the pairwise relationships between the five environmental indicators were synergistic; only carbon storage and charcoal production, and charcoal production and recreational accessibility showed trade-offs. Trade-off analysis and land use optimization using Pareto frontiers could be a useful decision-support tool for understanding how changes in land use and coastal management will impact the ability of ecosystems to provide environmental benefits.

Many drivers of mangrove forest loss operate over large scales and are most effectively addressed by policy interventions. However, conflicting or unclear policy objectives exist at multiple tiers of government, resulting in contradictory management decisions. To address this, we considered four approaches that are being used increasingly or could be deployed in Southeast Asia to ensure sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. First, a stronger incorporation of mangroves into marine protected areas (that currently focus largely on reefs and fisheries) could resolve some policy conflicts and ensure that mangroves do not fall through a policy gap. Second, examples of community and government comanagement exist, but achieving comanagement at scale will be important in reconciling stakeholders and addressing conflicting policy objectives. Third, private-sector initiatives could protect mangroves through existing and novel mechanisms in degraded areas and areas under future threat. Finally, payments for ecosystem services (PES) hold great promise for mangrove conservation, with carbon PES schemes (known as blue carbon) attracting attention. Although barriers remain to the implementation of PES, the potential to implement them at multiple scales exists. Closing the gap between mangrove conservation policies and action is crucial to the improved protection and management of this imperiled coastal ecosystem and to the livelihoods that depend on them., (© 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Mangrove forests are unique ecosystems that are important for human populations., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This research examines the role of canopy cover in influencing above ground biomass (AGB) dynamics of an open canopied forest and evaluates the efficacy of individual-based and plot-scale height metrics in predicting AGB variation in the tropical forests of Angkor Thom, Cambodia. The AGB was modeled by including canopy cover from aerial imagery alongside with the two different canopy vertical height metrics derived from LiDAR; the plot average of maximum tree height (Max&#95;CH) of individual trees, and the top of the canopy height (TCH). Two different statistical approaches, log-log ordinary least squares (OLS) and support vector regression (SVR), were used to model AGB variation in the study area. Ten different AGB models were developed using different combinations of airborne predictor variables. It was discovered that the inclusion of canopy cover estimates considerably improved the performance of AGB models for our study area. The most robust model was log-log OLS model comprising of canopy cover only (r = 0.87; RMSE = 42.8 Mg/ha). Other models that approximated field AGB closely included both Max&#95;CH and canopy cover (r = 0.86, RMSE = 44.2 Mg/ha for SVR; and, r = 0.84, RMSE = 47.7 Mg/ha for log-log OLS). Hence, canopy cover should be included when modeling the AGB of open-canopied tropical forests.

The mangrove forests of Southeast Asia are highly biodiverse and provide multiple ecosystem services upon which millions of people depend. Mangroves enhance fisheries and coastal protection, and store among the highest densities of carbon of any ecosystem globally. Mangrove forests have experienced extensive deforestation owing to global demand for commodities, and previous studies have identified the expansion of aquaculture as largely responsible. The proportional conversion of mangroves to different land use types has not been systematically quantified across Southeast Asia, however, particularly in recent years. In this study we apply a combined geographic information system and remote sensing method to quantify the key proximate drivers (i.e., replacement land uses) of mangrove deforestation in Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2012. Mangrove forests were lost at an average rate of 0.18% per year, which is lower than previously published estimates. In total, more than 100,000 ha of mangroves were removed during the study period, with aquaculture accounting for 30% of this total forest change. The rapid expansion of rice agriculture in Myanmar, and the sustained conversion of mangroves to oil palm plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia, are identified as additional increasing and under-recognized threats to mangrove ecosystems. Our study highlights frontiers of mangrove deforestation in the border states of Myanmar, on Borneo, and in Indonesian Papua. To implement policies that conserve mangrove forests across Southeast Asia, it is essential to consider the national and subnational variation in the land uses that follow deforestation.

Cultural ecosystem services are a function of people and place, so may change as a location transitions from rural to urban. Singapore has undergone rapid urbanization after its independence in 1965, with a concomitant decline in natural habitat extent and accessibility. Using coastal mangrove forests as a case study habitat, changing cultural values were explored with a novel array of techniques, including qualitative archival analysis (photographs, oral histories), current sources (publically uploaded social media photographs), and surveys of (a) the general public and (b) visitors to publically accessible mangroves. Cultural value changed through time, with a significant transition from intrinsic, intrapersonal values (spiritual, cultural heritage) to instrumental, interpersonal values (recreation, education). Additionally, cultural value varied between different mangroves depending on their public accessibility, and the evolving degree of human interaction with the ecosystem as urban development occured. Cultural values change as development transitions, though mangroves still play an important cultural role in a heavily urbanized environment.

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Intertidal wetlands such as saltmarshes and mangroves provide numerous important ecological functions, though they are in rapid and global decline. To better conserve and restore these wetland ecosystems, we need an understanding of the fundamental natural bottlenecks and thresholds to their establishment and long-term ecological maintenance. Despite inhabiting similar intertidal positions, the biological traits of these systems differ markedly in structure, phenology, life history, phylogeny and dispersal, suggesting large differences in biophysical interactions. By providing the first systematic comparison between saltmarshes and mangroves, we unravel how the interplay between species-specific life-history traits, biophysical interactions and biogeomorphological feedback processes determine where, when and what wetland can establish, the thresholds to long-term ecosystem stability, and constraints to genetic connectivity between intertidal wetland populations at the landscape level. To understand these process interactions, research into the constraints to wetland development, and biological adaptations to overcome these critical bottlenecks and thresholds requires a truly interdisciplinary approach., (© 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)