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Zusammenfassung Der Verein für Socialpolitik konnte in den siebziger und achtziger Jahren auf eine beeindruckende Historie zurückblicken, drohte aber den Anschluss an die sich mehr und mehr internationalisierende Wirtschaftswissenschaft zu verlieren. In diesem Beitrag zeichnen Friedrich Schneider, Ronnie Schöb, Hans-Werner Sinn und Marcel Thum Hans-Werner Sinn war von 1997 bis 2000 Vorsitzender des Vereins, Friedrich Schneider hatte dieses Amt von 2005 bis 2008 inne. Ronnie Schöb war von 1997 bis 2000 Geschäftsführer und Marcel Thum im selben Zeitraum Schriftführer des Vereins. die wichtigsten Veränderungen und Reformmaßnahmen in den Jahren 1990–2010 nach, mit denen der Verein für Socialpolitik zu einem international wettbewerbsfähigen Forum für wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Forschung wurde. Die vielfältigen Reformen in diesen zwei Jahrzehnten haben mit dazu beigetragen, dass die wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Forschung im deutschsprachigen Raum in der Breite international anschlussfähig wurde.

The ambiguous phenomenon of corruption has long been the cause of great theoretical debate in economics. By using Structural Equation Modelling, with the two types of corruption as a latent variable, this paper employs causal and indicative variables to the Latin American region to test for rent seeking and systemic corruption during 1980–2018. The findings provide evidence for two types of corruption, one generated by greed, and the other a solution to market failures. Such results support the view that corruption encompasses a complex set of social behaviours that may require a stronger definitional approach.

We empirically analyze to what extent economic freedom can explain the size and development of the shadow economy in OECD and other European countries. We econometrically examine the relation between a change of the overall index of economic freedom and the change of the shadow economy. We undertake an econometric panel estimation of 141 countries over the period 2000–2007. Our results demonstrate that first, the higher the economic freedom, the lower is the shadow economy. This holds especially for the index-sub-component legal structure and security of property rights. The sub-component freedom to trade internationally provides further support for this relation, limited to cases of positive changes of economic freedom. Second, the effects are asymmetrically, they are stronger when economic freedom increases than in the case of a decrease.

Considering the development of the shadow economy of 36 European and OECD countries over the period from 2003 to 2022 and the effect of the Coronavirus pandemic from 2020 onwards, the average size of the shadow economy of 36 European and OECD countries decreased from 16.48% of GDP in 2020 to 16.07% in 2021 (a decline of 0.41 percentage points). Due to a continued (forecasted) economic recovery in 2022, the average shadow economy of these 36 countries will slightly increase to 15.96% of GDP (average of all 36 countries): a very modest reduction of 0.11 percentage points.

This article aims first to investigate the main determinants of the informal economy (IE) in Algeria using the Multiple Indicator Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach, second to estimate its size and development, third analyse the relationship in the short and long run between the informal and formal economy, and finally to explore the causality direction by employing the Granger causality test from 1980 to 2017. The results showed that the tax burden, the agricultural sector, the quality of institutions, and the GDP per capita are the main determinants of the IE in Algeria. The average IE size is 33.48% of official GDP, and it has been increasing in size over the past 15 years. Furthermore, it has been found that the IE positively affects the formal economy in the short run, while in the long run, this effect is reversed. Moreover, unidirectional Granger causality from GDP to IE is found. As for policy implications, in order to lower the size of IE in Algeria, the government needs to reconsider its tax policies, including the re-examination of policies implemented to stimulate the agricultural sector, which half of their effects are absorbed by the IE, and the generalization of the use of electronic transactions in economic activities.

This paper is the first to theoretically and empirically analyse the three-way nexus among corruption, money laundering and anti-money-laundering policies. Assuming that the goal of criminals involved in corruption is to minimize the probability of being detected, corruption represents a demand for money laundering (a trigger effect). In this case, money laundering serves as an effective way to clean the revenues from corruption for reinvestment (a multiplier effect). At the same time, criminals can try to maximize the likelihood that anti-money-laundering activities will be ineffective. Corruption can be an effective tool for maximizing this likelihood, as organized crime may corrupt financial institutions—both regulators and regulated firms—in order to prevent crime detection and, thereby, facilitate money laundering (an accelerator effect). The three-way nexus is simulated using a sample of 100 countries for the period 1990 to 2040.

Zusammenfassung In diesem Überblicksartikel schätzt Friedrich Schneider mit Hilfe des MIMIC-Ansatzes („Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes“) Größe und Entwicklung der Schattenwirtschaft für 157 Länder in den Jahren 1991–2017 und stellt zugleich die einschlägige Literatur vor. Die OECD-Länder haben mit Werten unter 20 Prozent des offiziellen BIP die kleinste Schattenwirtschaft; die Länder in Lateinamerika und Subsahara-Afrika mit durchschnittlich fast 38 beziehungsweise 39 Prozent die größte. Der Durchschnitt über alle Länder liegt bei 30,9 Prozent. Die Schattenwirtschaft schrumpft dabei über die Zeit. Der durchschnittliche Rückgang beträgt 6,8 Prozentpunkte. Besonders groß ist die Schattenwirtschaft in Ländern wie Bolivien (Georgien) mit 62,9 (61,7) Prozent des BIP; besonders klein ist sie in Ländern wie der Schweiz (den Vereinigten Staaten) mit durchschnittlich 6,4 (7,6) Prozent. Zur Überprüfung der Robustheit werden die MIMIC-Ergebnisse mit denen des Diskrepanz-Ansatzes für 23 Länder verglichen. Für die meisten Länder zeigen sich stabile, ähnliche Ergebnisse. Abschließend wird die Interaktion der Schattenwirtschaft mit der offiziellen Wirtschaft untersucht. Erste Ergebnisse für Pakistan 1976–2015 zeigen kurzfristig einen negativen und langfristig einen positiven Effekt der Schattenwirtschaft auf das BIP.

BackgroundSyngnathids are a highly derived and diverse fish clade comprising the pipefishes, pipe-horses and seahorses. They are characterized by a plethora of iconic traits that increasingly capture the attention of biologists, including geneticists, ecologists and developmental biologists. The current understanding of the origins of their derived body plan is, however, hampered by incomplete and limited descriptions of the early syngnathid ontogeny.ResultsWe provide a comprehensive description of the development of Nerophis ophidion, Syngnathus typhle, Hippocampus erectus from early cleavage stages to release from the male brooding organ and beyond, including juvenile development. We comparatively describe skeletogenesis with a particular focus on dermal bony plates, the snout-like jaw morphology, and appendages.ConclusionsThis most comprehensive and detailed account of syngnathid development to date suggests that convergent phenotypes (e.g. reduction and loss of the caudal fins), likely arose by distinct ontogenetic means in pipefish and seahorses. Comparison of the ontogenetic trajectories of S. typhle and H. erectus provides indications that characteristic features of the seahorse body plan result from developmental truncation. Altogether this work provides a valuable resource and framework for future research to understand the evolution of the outlandish syngnathid morphology from a developmental perspective.Bullet pointsSyngnathids (pipefish, pipe-horses and seahorses) are a highly derived and diverse fish taxon and many of their most iconic traits – and these traits’ variation across species - develop during their early ontogeny.This study provides a detailed description and staging table of the entire pre-release development (and beyond) of three distinct syngnathids (two phylogenetically distinct pipefishes and a seahorse) with a focus on the skeletal elements forming the cranium, axial skeleton, appendages and the plate armor.The data provided in this study suggests that developmental heterochrony, i.e. alterations in the rate and timing of developmental processes between lineages, might be a central evolutionary process shaping the morphological diversity found in syngnathids today.

After overcoming the Coronavirus Pandemic with massive spending programs and the possibility of running a deficit at the EU level, a minimal Federal European Constitution is proposed, to provide a legal and democratic base for the European Union. Six basic elements of a future European federal constitution are developed: the European Commission should be turned into a European government and the European legislation should consist of a two-chamber system with full responsibility over all federal matters. Three further key elements are the subsidiarity principle, federalism and direct democracy, which would provide the possibility for European voters to participate actively in political decision making, to break political and interest group cartels, and to prevent unwanted shifting of responsibilities from EU member states to the European federal level.

While inflow of remittances through informal channels are widely discussed in terms of their opportunity cost for the recipient country and likely instrument of illegal activities, the size of such...

To demonstrate the impact of informal economy on the official money multiplier in currency supply, we present an extension of the basic money multiplier model. The influence of economic policies may differ if they are based only on official statistics without considering the informal sector. Since most of the activities in informal sector are hidden from authorities, it is widely assumed that these activities are based on cash transactions, a part of total currency that cannot be attracted towards deposits due to the holder’s fear of prosecution and taxation, etc. Therefore, it is expected that such currency holdings can give biased results by playing a role in the money multiplier, a phenomenon that is usually ignored while attempting to alter money supply. The article also indicates that because of informal sector, the currency deposit ratio in the money multiplier is smaller than expected (depending on size of the informal sector), leading to a larger multiplier effect. JEL Classifications: E26, E51, O17

An empirical investigation of the 50 US States shows that the relationship between shadow economy and corruption is negative (substitutive) when the shadow economy is relatively small; it is positive (complementary) when the shadow economy is large. According to the robust regression results for 50 American states between 2001 and 2008, the turning point from negative to positive is when the shadow economy of a state is at 7.61 of its GDP. Shadow economy and corruption are first substitutive and then complementary. The lesson to learn is that there is no simple anti-corruption policy rule if one takes into account the varying interaction between corruption and the shadow economy.

It is argued in the literature that the intensity of regulations and control in an economy is a determinant of the informal sector which however is ignored in most of its estimates. This article uses a new variant of the currency demand approach where ‘unemployment’ and ‘intensity of government control’ are used to estimate a shadow economy, alongside a the traditional tax variable. We choose Pakistan since it has a significant share of its activities in the informal sector along with the history of various political and dictatorial regimes. Further, there are examples of bureaucratic control leading to corruption in the economy. It provides an opportunity to study the nexus between regulation intensity and informal economy and present a case study for other developing countries exercising control over the economy through the large size of its public sector. The results show that the intensity of the control variable has statistically and economically significant role in increasing the shadow economy, almost equivalent to the tax coefficient. Once the yearly variation in our estimates is mapped with various political regimes, it seems that the validity of estimates is reinforced considering policy inconsistencies and prominent events of each regime.

This paper examines the impact of poverty on the size of the shadow economy using cross‐country panel data for over 100 countries for the period 1991–2015. The results show that poverty has a positive and significant effect on the size of the shadow economy. Furthermore, we argue that the quality and size of governmental institutions matter in moderating the impact of poverty on the shadow economy. Considering the interactions between poverty and government quality and size, we find that poverty has the largest effect on the size of the shadow economy when government quality is the lowest and the size of the government is the largest. These results withstand a battery of robustness checks.

We explore the interaction of the informal sector with the formal economy for a developing economy, that is, Pakistan. Estimation results are obtained via autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, which show a significantly positive effect of the informal sector in the long run whereas a negative impact of informal sector is found in the short run. We also present dynamic simulations to show the effect/contribution in terms of revised GDP per capita if the informal sector is accounted for in official statistics. The novelty of results is the varying effects of the informal sector across two time horizons that can have serious policy implications for developing and transition economies with large informal sectors. Although, the findings of this article enrich our understanding on the behaviour of the informal sector, they further fuel the debate associated with eradication of the informal sector. Efforts to curb informal activities may burden the low-skilled workforce in this sector and increase corruption opportunities in bureaucracy in the absence of institutional reforms. On the contrary, it makes the formal sector policy design and implementation a challenging task. JEL Classification: E26, H26, K42, O17

This paper explores the relationship between the e-participation attitude of citizens and the size of the shadow economy, whose consequences could be detrimental to countries’ economic development. We exploit a rich panel dataset for 149 countries characterized by a large digital divide within their public sectors, different levels of both income and democratic institutions at work over years 2003–2015. Using the instrumental variables approach to address potential endogeneity issues, we find that e-participation significantly contributes to reducing the shadow economy. Due to its interactive nature for both businesses and citizens, it positively affects the individuals’ behavior against informal economic activities by creating a more collaborative environment between the government and its stakeholders.

This paper estimates the size of the value added of the informal economy for 157 countries over 1991 to 2017 with the help of the MIMIC-method. The results show that OECD countries have by far the smallest informal economies, with sizes below 20 percent of official GDP. Moreover, informal economies are larger in Latin American and sub-Saharan African countries, averaging almost 38 and 39 percent of GDP, respectively. The average informal-economy size over all 157 countries and over 1991–2017 is 30.9 percent. The average decline in informal-economy size from 1991 to 2017 is a remarkable 6.8 percentage points. In addition, results of the size and development of undeclared or informal employment all over the world are shown. Except for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and Southern Africa, informal employment is above 50% of total employment and even over 88% in Southern Asia and SubSaharan Africa. Finally, some policy measures to reduce the informal economy and conclusions are given, Este artículo estima el tamaño del valor añadido de la economía informal para 157 países entre 1991 y 2017 con la ayuda del método MIMIC. Los resultados muestran que los países de la OCDE tienen, con mucho, las economías informales más pequeñas, con tamaños por debajo del 20 por ciento del PIB oficial. Y las economías informales son más grandes en los países de América Latina y África subsahariana, con un promedio de casi el 38 y el 39 por ciento del PIB, respectivamente. El tamaño medio de la economía informal en los 157 países considerados y durante el período 1991-2017 es del 30,9 por ciento. La disminución promedio del tamaño de la economía informal de 1991 a 2017 es de un notable 6,8 puntos porcentuales. También se muestran los resultados del tamaño y desarrollo del empleo no declarado o informal en todo el mundo. Excepto en Europa del Este, Asia Central y África Meridional, el empleo informal supera el 50% del empleo total e incluso supera el 88% en Asia Meridional y África Subsahariana. Finalmente, se ofrecen algunas actuaciones de política orientadas a reducir la economía informal y se extraen algunas conclusiones al respecto

KM3NeT/ORCA is a dense array that constitutes the low-energy branch of the KM3NeT project with the main goal of resolving the question of the neutrino mass ordering. At present, the KM3NeT/ORCA Phase 1 has already been deployed, which means that six out of the planned 115 detection lines are operational. Even with this limited configuration, neutrino oscillations can already be measured and studied. In this contribution, the sensitivity to the neutrino Non-Standard Interactions (NSI) parameter $\epsilon_{\mu \tau}$ using the current stage of the KM3NeT/ORCA detector together with the projections for the final configuration are presented.

KM3NeT is a multi-purpose cubic-kilometer neutrino observatory under construction in the Mediterranean Sea. It consists of ORCA and ARCA (for Oscillation and Astroparticle Research with Cosmics in the Abyss, respectively), currently both have a few detection lines in operation. Although having different primary goals, both detectors can be used for neutrino astronomy over a wide energy range, from a few tens of MeVs to a few tens of PeV. In view of the growing field of time-domain astronomy, it is crucial to be able to identify neutrino candidates in real-time. This online neutrino sample will allow triggered neutrino alerts that will be sent to the astronomy community and to look for time/space coincidences around external electromagnetic and multi-messenger triggers. These real-time searches can significantly increase the discovery potential of transient cosmic accelerators and refine the pointing directions in the case of poorly localized triggers, such as gravitational waves. In the field of core-collapse supernovae (CCSN), the detection of the MeV-scale CCSN neutrinos is crucial as an early warning of the electromagnetic follow-up. KM3NeT's digital optical modules act as good detectors for these supernovae neutrinos. This proceeding presents the status of KM3NeT's real-time multi-messenger activities, including online event reconstruction, event classification and selection, alert distribution, and supernova monitoring., 6 pages, 6 figures, VLVNT2021 conference proceedings

Applying the multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) approach, the present paper measured the size of the shadow economies in China's provinces over 1995–2016. The results show that the average size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China increased from 13.55% in 1995 to 14.39% in 2009, and then decreased to 12.30% in 2016. There are obvious variations in the size of the shadow economies in different districts of China. The average size of the shadow economy is lowest in provinces in the eastern district and highest in the western district. In addition, the causes and consequences of the shadow economies in China's provinces have also been analysed using the MIMIC approach, and the results show that tax burden, complexity of the tax system, intensity of regulation, unemployment, employment in the agricultural sector and economic openness have significant positive effects on China's shadow economy, while the ratio of direct taxes to indirect taxes, fiscal autonomy and income levels have significant negative effects on China's shadow economy. Using the growth rate of energy consumption as the benchmark indicator, the MIMIC analysis shows that the shadow economy has significant positive effects on the development of the official economy and income inequality while having a significant negative effect on the labour participation rate.

Using panel data for a large cross-country sample, we consider the influences of FDI inflows, inward development aid, and immigration on the informal sector. Both FDI and immigration increase the informal sector, with the effect of immigration being relatively more robust. Aid inflows reduce the informal sector, but the statistical significance is low. Among the control variables, government size persistently increases the informal economy, while inflation sometimes lowers the informal sector. As a secondary exercise, we consider the effect of globalization and note the informality-increasing role of social and overall globalization, with economic and political globalization being statistically insignificant.

Despite of its wide and long-term application for interconnections in the field of microelectronics packaging, a quantitative understanding on the mechanisms of ultrasonic (US) wire bonding is still lacked. In this work, the energy flows from the electrical input energy to the different mechanisms during the US bonding process are quantified based on real-time observations via which the relative motions at the wire/substrate and the wire/tool interfaces can be detected. The relative motions at the two interfaces are proved to be caused by both the continuous plastic deformation and the US vibration. The normal force and US power interdependently affect the relative motion amplitudes. The deduced energy flows show that the energy from the transducer mainly flows to the vibration induced friction at the two interfaces and the microwelds formation, deformation and breakage. Despite of their significance to the process, the other mechanisms receive only little amount of energy. The impacts of the process parameters including normal force, US power and time on the energy flows are quantitatively investigated. A good coupling of the normal force and the US power guides more energy to the formation of microwelds while a long process time would increase the friction induced energy consumption.

Using data over 1870–2014, this paper provides a long-term analysis of the determinants of the U.S. shadow economy. Results show that greater trade openness and a bigger government reduced shadow activity, with inflation and prosperity being statistically insignificant. Politically, congressional party homogeneity reduced the shadow economy. Further, the U.S. shadow economy increased during World War II, while the effects of World War I were insignificant and the Great Depression reduced shadow activity. Finally, geographic changes resulting from the addition of new states to the union was a positive influence on the shadow economy. The short-run relationship(s) between the shadow economy and its determinants exhibits some differences.

In the present study, we explore an environmental tax reform for Austria as an instrument to achieve the main objectives of the current Austrian Climate and Energy Strategy #mission2030. Our concept aims at a dual objective of reducing CO2-eq emissions, while simultaneously further triggering innovation processes of the Austrian industry, resulting in a transfer of benefits to society. The focused measures at the national level to achieve climate protection comprise an increase of the mineral oil tax and the introduction of CO2-eq taxation for non-EU-ETS sectors. These taxes create revenues which are recycled through 1) reductions of non-wage labor costs for companies, 2) compensation transfers for private households of low- and middle-income groups, 3) investment in research and innovation for industry and 4) investments in key technologies to advance #mission2030, such as alternative propulsion systems (electric, H2), and the use of biomethane for space heating and thermal renovation. Results of simulations for the period 2020 to 2025 via a macro-sectoral model display the potential for multiple dividends if the revenues are reused this way. Furthermore, besides offering significant reductions of CO2e emissions, the proposed reform triggers positive impacts on GDP, employment, and private consumption, thereby ensuring social compatibility.

To meet the future energy and climate targets in 2030 and 2050 in Austria, it is absolutely necessary to apply extensive measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels. By then, Austria will have to realize a 36% decrease (from 2005 levels) for emission sources outside the European Emission Trading System. The transport sector is a key driver of recently increasing greenhouse gas emissions in Austria. Hence, we examine the macroeconomic and ecologic impacts of an environmental tax reform in Austria from 2020 to 2030. We implement a revenue-neutral tax reform that raises revenues via an increase of the mineral oil tax on diesel and petrol consumption and redistributes these fiscal revenues to the industry and households. In addition, increased fossil fuel taxing would enhance revenues for green investments in e-mobility and thermal refurbishment that stimulate the Austrian economy. The simulation analyses focus on central macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, investment and private consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. We find that the proposed environmental tax reform generates a triple dividend, leading simultaneously to economic growth and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while low-income households can be fully compensated.

The KM3NeT research infrastructure is under construction in the Mediterranean Sea. It consists of two water Cherenkov neutrino detectors, ARCA and ORCA, aimed at neutrino astrophysics and oscillation research, respectively. Instrumenting a large volume of sea water with $$\sim {6200}$$ ∼ 6200 optical modules comprising a total of $$\sim {200{,}000}$$ ∼ 200 , 000 photomultiplier tubes, KM3NeT will achieve sensitivity to $$\sim {10} \ \mathrm{MeV}$$ ∼ 10 MeV neutrinos from Galactic and near-Galactic core-collapse supernovae through the observation of coincident hits in photomultipliers above the background. In this paper, the sensitivity of KM3NeT to a supernova explosion is estimated from detailed analyses of background data from the first KM3NeT detection units and simulations of the neutrino signal. The KM3NeT observational horizon (for a $$5\,\sigma $$ 5 σ discovery) covers essentially the Milky-Way and for the most optimistic model, extends to the Small Magellanic Cloud ($$\sim {60} \ \mathrm{kpc}$$ ∼ 60 kpc ). Detailed studies of the time profile of the neutrino signal allow assessment of the KM3NeT capability to determine the arrival time of the neutrino burst with a few milliseconds precision for sources up to 5–8 kpc away, and detecting the peculiar signature of the standing accretion shock instability if the core-collapse supernova explosion happens closer than 3–5 kpc, depending on the progenitor mass. KM3NeT’s capability to measure the neutrino flux spectral parameters is also presented.