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The reliability of the electric grid has in recent years become a larger concern for regulators, planners, and consumers due to several high-impact outage events, as well as the potential for even more impactful events in the future. These concerns are largely the result of decades-old resource adequacy (RA) planning frameworks being insufficiently adapted to the current types of uncertainty faced by planners, including many sources of deep uncertainty for which probability distributions cannot be defensibly assigned. There are emerging methodologies for dealing with these new types of uncertainty in RA assessment and procurement frameworks, but their adoption has been hindered by the lack of consistent understanding of terminology related to RA and the related concept of resilience, as well as a lack of syntheses of such available methodologies. Here we provide an overview of RA and its relationship to resilience, a summary of available methods for dealing with emerging types of uncertainty faced by RA assessment, and an an overview of procurement methodologies for operationalizing RA in the context of these types of uncertainty. This paper provides a synthesis and guide for both researchers and practitioners seeking to navigate a new, much more uncertain era of power system planning., Comment: 10 pages

We consider a system of two balance laws of Keyfitz-Kranzer type with varying generalized Chaplygin gas, which exhibits negative pressure and is a product of a function of time and the inverse of a power of the density. The Chaplygin gas is a fluid designed to accommodate measurements for the early universe and late-time universal expansion while obeying the pressure-density-time relation. We produce an explanation and description of the non-self-similar Riemann solutions, including the non-classical singular solutions. We also find that due to a direct dependence on time, a change in the regions allowing for combinations of classical and non-classical singular solutions occurs, therefore a Riemann solution can have different solutions over several time intervals. Our findings are confirmed numerically using the local Lax-Friederichs scheme., Comment: 41 pages

How can intelligent machines assess their competencies in completing tasks? This question has come into focus for autonomous systems that algorithmically reason and make decisions under uncertainty. It is argued here that machine self-confidence - a form of meta-reasoning based on self-assessments of an agent's knowledge about the state of the world and itself, as well as its ability to reason about and execute tasks - leads to many eminently computable and useful competency indicators for such agents. This paper presents a culmination of work on this concept in the form of a computational framework called Factorized Machine Self-confidence (FaMSeC), which provides a holistic engineering-focused description of factors driving an algorithmic decision-making process, including: outcome assessment, solver quality, model quality, alignment quality, and past experience. In FaMSeC, self confidence indicators are derived from hierarchical `problem-solving statistics' embedded within broad classes of probabilistic decision-making algorithms such as Markov decision processes. The problem-solving statistics are obtained by evaluating and grading probabilistic exceedance margins with respect to given competency standards, which are specified for each of the various decision-making competency factors by the informee (e.g. a non-expert user or an expert system designer). This approach allows `algorithmic goodness of fit' evaluations to be easily incorporated into the design of many kinds of autonomous agents in the form of human-interpretable competency self-assessment reports. Detailed descriptions and application examples for a Markov decision process agent show how two of the FaMSeC factors (outcome assessment and solver quality) can be computed and reported for a range of possible tasking contexts through novel use of meta-utility functions, behavior simulations, and surrogate prediction models., Comment: 59 pages, 22 figures, draft to be submitted for journal review

This paper proposes a methodology to solve generation expansion equilibrium problems by using a predictive model to represent the equilibrium in a simplified network constrained electricity market. The investment problem for each generation company (Genco) is a bi-level problem with the investment decision made in the upper level and market clearing condition in the lower level, which traditionally is represented as a Mathematical Program with Equilibrium Constraint (MPEC). The predictive model is trained for estimating the system-wide revenues for each technology type across energy, ancillary services and capacity markets given the amount of technology-specific installed capacity on the grid. The profit maximization investment problem for each Genco is solved using a global search algorithm, which uses the predictive model to evaluate the objective function. To solve for the strategic equilibrium, each Genco's problem is plugged into a diagonalization algorithm that is generally used in multi-leader, single-follower bi-level problems. The methodology presented here enables significant computational improvements while still capturing the desired market characteristics and dynamics of traditional equilibrium modeling approaches

This paper introduces a method of identifying a maximal set of safe strategies from data for stochastic systems with unknown dynamics using barrier certificates. The first step is learning the dynamics of the system via Gaussian process (GP) regression and obtaining probabilistic errors for this estimate. Then, we develop an algorithm for constructing piecewise stochastic barrier functions to find a maximal permissible strategy set using the learned GP model, which is based on sequentially pruning the worst controls until a maximal set is identified. The permissible strategies are guaranteed to maintain probabilistic safety for the true system. This is especially important for learning-enabled systems, because a rich strategy space enables additional data collection and complex behaviors while remaining safe. Case studies on linear and nonlinear systems demonstrate that increasing the size of the dataset for learning the system grows the permissible strategy set.

In this work, a set of motion primitives is defined for use in an energy-aware motion planning problem. The motion primitives are defined as sequences of control inputs to a simplified four-DOF dynamics model and are used to replace the traditional continuous control space used in many sampling-based motion planners. The primitives are implemented in a Stable Sparse Rapidly Exploring Random Tree (SST) motion planner and compared to an identical planner using a continuous control space. The planner using primitives was found to run 11.0\% faster but yielded solution paths that were on average worse with higher variance. Also, the solution path travel time is improved by about 50\%. Using motion primitives for sampling spaces in SST can effectively reduce the run time of the algorithm, although at the cost of solution quality., Comment: 4 pages

Verifying the performance of safety-critical, stochastic systems with complex noise distributions is difficult. We introduce a general procedure for the finite abstraction of nonlinear stochastic systems with non-standard (e.g., non-affine, non-symmetric, non-unimodal) noise distributions for verification purposes. The method uses a finite partitioning of the noise domain to construct an interval Markov chain (IMC) abstraction of the system via transition probability intervals. Noise partitioning allows for a general class of distributions and structures, including multiplicative and mixture models, and admits both known and data-driven systems. The partitions required for optimal transition bounds are specified for systems that are monotonic with respect to the noise, and explicit partitions are provided for affine and multiplicative structures. By the soundness of the abstraction procedure, verification on the IMC provides guarantees on the stochastic system against a temporal logic specification. In addition, we present a novel refinement-free algorithm that improves the verification results. Case studies on linear and nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian noise, including a data-driven example, demonstrate the generality and effectiveness of the method without introducing excessive conservatism., Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, submitted jointly to IEEE Control Systems Letters and 2024 ACC

Webpages change over time, and web archives hold copies of historical versions of webpages. Users of web archives, such as journalists, want to find and view changes on webpages over time. However, the current search interfaces for web archives do not support this task. For the web archives that include a full-text search feature, multiple versions of the same webpage that match the search query are shown individually without enumerating changes, or are grouped together in a way that hides changes. We present a change text search engine that allows users to find changes in webpages. We describe the implementation of the search engine backend and frontend, including a tool that allows users to view the changes between two webpage versions in context as an animation. We evaluate the search engine with U.S. federal environmental webpages that changed between 2016 and 2020. The change text search results page can clearly show when terms and phrases were added or removed from webpages. The inverted index can also be queried to identify salient and frequently deleted terms in a corpus., Comment: In Proceedings of JCDL 2023; 20 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables

In this report, the evolution of the local atomic structure of the Zr50Nb50 melt was investigated by applying temperature (2600 to 300 K) and pressure (0 to 50 Gpa) using classical molecular dynamics simulations. To gain clear insight into the structural evolution during quenching, we used various methods of structural analysis such as the radial distribution function g(r), coordination number, bond angle distribution, and Voronoi tessellation. We found that the icosahedral motifs (which are the signature of the short-range ordering) and distorted BCC-like clusters dominate in the liquid and glass region under 0 and 5 Gpa external pressure. A first-order phase transition to a crystal-like structure was observed at 10, 15, and 20 Gpa external pressure at 1400, 1500, and 1600 K, respectively. Before the first-order phase transition, the system was dominated by icosahedral and distorted BCC-like clusters. When the temperature is lowered further below the glass transition at 10,15, and 20 Gpa external pressure, all structural analyses show that the solidified system consists mainly of body-centered cubic-like clusters in the case of our specific cooling rate of 1012 K/s., Comment: 11 figures

While the capabilities of autonomous systems have been steadily improving in recent years, these systems still struggle to rapidly explore previously unknown environments without the aid of GPS-assisted navigation. The DARPA Subterranean (SubT) Challenge aimed to fast track the development of autonomous exploration systems by evaluating their performance in real-world underground search-and-rescue scenarios. Subterranean environments present a plethora of challenges for robotic systems, such as limited communications, complex topology, visually-degraded sensing, and harsh terrain. The presented solution enables long-term autonomy with minimal human supervision by combining a powerful and independent single-agent autonomy stack, with higher level mission management operating over a flexible mesh network. The autonomy suite deployed on quadruped and wheeled robots was fully independent, freeing the human supervision to loosely supervise the mission and make high-impact strategic decisions. We also discuss lessons learned from fielding our system at the SubT Final Event, relating to vehicle versatility, system adaptability, and re-configurable communications., Comment: Field Robotics special issue: DARPA Subterranean Challenge, Advancement and Lessons Learned from the Finals

Leveraging autonomous systems in safety-critical scenarios requires verifying their behaviors in the presence of uncertainties and black-box components that influence the system dynamics. In this work, we develop a framework for verifying discrete-time dynamical systems with unmodelled dynamics and noisy measurements against temporal logic specifications from an input-output dataset. The verification framework employs Gaussian process (GP) regression to learn the unknown dynamics from the dataset and abstracts the continuous-space system as a finite-state, uncertain Markov decision process (MDP). This abstraction relies on space discretization and transition probability intervals that capture the uncertainty due to the error in GP regression by using reproducible kernel Hilbert space analysis as well as the uncertainty induced by discretization. The framework utilizes existing model checking tools for verification of the uncertain MDP abstraction against a given temporal logic specification. We establish the correctness of extending the verification results on the abstraction created from noisy measurements to the underlying system. We show that the computational complexity of the framework is polynomial in the size of the dataset and discrete abstraction. The complexity analysis illustrates a trade-off between the quality of the verification results and the computational burden to handle larger datasets and finer abstractions. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our learning and verification framework on several case studies with linear, nonlinear, and switched dynamical systems.

Autonomous systems often have complex and possibly unknown dynamics due to, e.g., black-box components. This leads to unpredictable behaviors and makes control design with performance guarantees a major challenge. This paper presents a data-driven control synthesis framework for such systems subject to linear temporal logic on finite traces (LTLf) specifications. The framework combines a baseline (offline) controller with a novel online controller and refinement procedure that improves the baseline guarantees as new data is collected. The baseline controller is computed offline on an uncertain abstraction constructed using Gaussian process (GP) regression on a given dataset. The offline controller provides a lower bound on the probability of satisfying the LTLf specification, which may be far from optimal due to both discretization and regression errors. The synergy arises from the online controller using the offline abstraction along with the current state and new data to choose the next best action. The online controller may improve the baseline guarantees since it avoids the discretization error and reduces regression error as new data is collected. The new data are also used to refine the abstraction and offline controller using local GP regression, which significantly reduces the computation overhead. Evaluations show the efficacy of the proposed offline-online framework, especially when compared against the offline controller., Comment: Updated Prop 1 from published version -- To appear in the 60th IEEE Conf on Decision and Control

Artificial intelligence has undergone immense growth and maturation in recent years, though autonomous systems have traditionally struggled when fielded in diverse and previously unknown environments. DARPA is seeking to change that with the Subterranean Challenge, by providing roboticists the opportunity to support civilian and military first responders in complex and high-risk underground scenarios. The subterranean domain presents a handful of challenges, such as limited communication, diverse topology and terrain, and degraded sensing. Team MARBLE proposes a solution for autonomous exploration of unknown subterranean environments in which coordinated agents search for artifacts of interest. The team presents two navigation algorithms in the form of a metric-topological graph-based planner and a continuous frontier-based planner. To facilitate multi-agent coordination, agents share and merge new map information and candidate goal-points. Agents deploy communication beacons at different points in the environment, extending the range at which maps and other information can be shared. Onboard autonomy reduces the load on human supervisors, allowing agents to detect and localize artifacts and explore autonomously outside established communication networks. Given the scale, complexity, and tempo of this challenge, a range of lessons were learned, most importantly, that frequent and comprehensive field testing in representative environments is key to rapidly refining system performance., Comment: 39 pages, 21 figures, Field Robotics special issue: Advancements and lessons learned during Phase I & II of the DARPA Subterranean Challenge

The paper proposes a reliable and robust planning solution to the long range robotic navigation problem in extremely cluttered environments. A two-layer planning architecture is proposed that leverages both the environment map and the direct depth sensor information to ensure maximal information gain out of the onboard sensors. A frontier-based pose sampling technique is used with a fast marching cost-to-go calculation to select a goal pose and plan a path to maximize robot exploration rate. An artificial potential function approach, relying on direct depth measurements, enables the robot to follow the path while simultaneously avoiding small scene obstacles that are not captured in the map due to mapping and localization uncertainties. We demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed approach through field deployments in a structurally complex warehouse using a micro-aerial vehicle (MAV) with all the sensing and computations performed onboard., Comment: Accepted to appear at 2021 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS), Prague, Czech Republic (8 pages, 9 figures)

We present a data-driven framework for strategy synthesis for partially-known switched stochastic systems. The properties of the system are specified using linear temporal logic (LTL) over finite traces (LTLf), which is as expressive as LTL and enables interpretations over finite behaviors. The framework first learns the unknown dynamics via Gaussian process regression. Then, it builds a formal abstraction of the switched system in terms of an uncertain Markov model, namely an Interval Markov Decision Process (IMDP), by accounting for both the stochastic behavior of the system and the uncertainty in the learning step. Then, we synthesize a strategy on the resulting IMDP that maximizes the satisfaction probability of the LTLf specification and is robust against all the uncertainties in the abstraction. This strategy is then refined into a switching strategy for the original stochastic system. We show that this strategy is near-optimal and provide a bound on its distance (error) to the optimal strategy. We experimentally validate our framework on various case studies, including both linear and non-linear switched stochastic systems., Comment: Updated Thm 1 and Fig 2 from published version -- 11 pages, to appear in the 2021 Proceedings of the ACM Int. Conf. on Hybrid Systems: Computation and Control (HSCC 2021)

The deployment of autonomous systems that operate in unstructured environments necessitates algorithms to verify their safety. This can be challenging due to, e.g., black-box components in the control software, or undermodelled dynamics that prevent model-based verification. We present a novel verification framework for an unknown dynamical system from a given set of noisy observations of the dynamics. Using Gaussian processes trained on this data set, the framework abstracts the system as an uncertain Markov process with discrete states defined over the safe set. The transition bounds of the abstraction are derived from the probabilistic error bounds between the regression and underlying system. An existing approach for verifying safety properties over uncertain Markov processes then generates safety guarantees. We demonstrate the versatility of the framework on several examples, including switched and nonlinear systems., Comment: 8 pages, LaTeX; typos corrected, references updated, figures updated

Algorithmic assurances from advanced autonomous systems assist human users in understanding, trusting, and using such systems appropriately. Designing these systems with the capacity of assessing their own capabilities is one approach to creating an algorithmic assurance. The idea of `machine self-confidence' is introduced for autonomous systems. Using a factorization based framework for self-confidence assessment, one component of self-confidence, called `solver-quality', is discussed in the context of Markov decision processes for autonomous systems. Markov decision processes underlie much of the theory of reinforcement learning, and are commonly used for planning and decision making under uncertainty in robotics and autonomous systems. A `solver quality' metric is formally defined in the context of decision making algorithms based on Markov decision processes. A method for assessing solver quality is then derived, drawing inspiration from empirical hardness models. Finally, numerical experiments for an unmanned autonomous vehicle navigation problem under different solver, parameter, and environment conditions indicate that the self-confidence metric exhibits the desired properties. Discussion of results, and avenues for future investigation are included., Comment: title change, leaving as stand-alone tech report

A combination of archival multi-frequency radio observations with narrow-band HAlpha optical imagery and new confirmatory optical spectroscopy have shown that candidate supernova remnant G6.31+0.54 can now be confirmed as part of a Galactic supernova remnant (SNR). It has non-thermal emission, an optical emission line spectrum displaying shock excitation and standard SNR line ratios, fine filamentary structures in HAlpha typical of optical remnants and closely overlapping radio and optical footprints. An X-ray ROSAT source 1RXS J175752.1-231105 was also found that matches the radio and optical emission though a definite association is not proven. Nevertheless, taken together, all these observed properties point to a clear SNR identification for this source. We provide a rough estimate for the kinematic distance to G6.31+0.54 of ~4.5kpc. The detected optical filaments are some ~10arcminutes in extent (or about 13 pc at the assumed distance). However, as only a partial arcuate structure of the SNR can be seen (and not a full shell) the full angular extent of the SNR is unclear. Hence the physical extent of the observed partial shell is also difficult to estimate. If we assume an approximately circular shell then a conservative fit to the optical arc shaped filaments gives an angular diameter of ~20 arcminutes corresponding to a physical diameter of ~26 pc that shows this to be an evolved remnant., Comment: Accepted for publishing in MNRAS 8 pages, 8 figures