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Lanternfishes (Myctophidae) are key components of mesopelagic fish communities globally. In the Southern Ocean, incomplete information on myctophid diets limits our understanding of their energetics, interactions, and wider ecosystem impact. Traditional microscopic methods of diet analysis have relatively coarse prey resolution and possible taxonomic and observer biases. Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) metabarcode sequencing promises higher taxonomic and temporal resolution, but uncertainty remains in comparing this with microscopy-based analyses. Here, we applied 18S DNA metabarcode sequencing to stomach contents from 20 Electrona antarctica individuals that had previously been examined via microscopic analysis. Across all fish analysed, crustacean and gastropod taxa dominated the prey identified via both methods, with broad agreement between methods on the relative abundance of different prey items. DNA metabarcode sequencing recovered greater taxonomic diversity and resolution, particularly for soft-bodied prey items and small crustaceans. DNA sequencing results also more clearly differentiated diet between individuals collected from different environments. Overall, our findings illustrate how DNA-based methods are complementary to, and consistent with, traditional methods and can provide additional, high-resolution data on a range of trophic interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Lanternfishes (Myctophidae) are one of the most species‐rich families of mid‐water fishes. They inhabit the mesopelagic zone, where physical barriers to dispersal and gene flow are permeable. Thus, modes of speciation that rely exclusively on geographical separation are potentially of less importance than those that rely more prominently on evolution of assortative mating through divergent habitat use and/or sexual signals, including visual signals from bioluminescent light organs. Here we used phylogenetic, ecological and morphological data to investigate the roles of geography, habitat use and lateral photophores in lanternfish speciation. Location: Global. Time period: Data collected between 1950 and 2015. Major taxa studied: Lanternfishes (Myctophidae). Methods: Ecological niche models (ENMs) were developed for 167 species, enabling the community composition of 33 mesopelagic ecoregions to be determined. Sequence data for seven protein‐coding regions from 175 species were used to reconstruct a phylogenetic tree of Myctophidae. Age‐overlap correlation tests were conducted using this phylogeny with outputs from ENMs (pairwise geographical overlap and pairwise ecological niche overlap, n = 136), in addition to matrices of pairwise depth overlap (n = 158) and photophore pattern dissimilarity (n = 161). Results: Communities assembled according to nine broad climatic regions, and recently diverged species pairs possessed greater geographical and ecological niche overlap than more distantly related species, indicating that sympatric or parapatric speciation might be dominant modes of divergence. Differences in photophore patterns increased with the relative age of speciation events, suggesting that photophore patterns are largely constrained by phylogeny. Main conclusions Based on this evidence, we suggest that large‐scale oceanographic features structure the diversity of lanternfish communities and that speciation within this family of deep‐water fishes might not have required geographical isolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological communities in the Arctic are changing through the climate‐driven encroachment of subarctic species. This "Atlantification" extends to keystone Calanoid copepods, as the small‐bodied Calanus finmarchicus increases in abundance in areas where it overlaps with larger Arctic congeners. The environmental factors that are facilitating this shift, whether related to optimal conditions in temperature or seasonality, remain unclear. Assessing these drivers at an Arctic‐wide scale is necessary to predict future ecosystem change and impacts. Here we have compiled range‐wide occurrences of C. finmarchicus and a suite of seasonal biophysical climatologies to build a boreo‐Arctic ecological niche model. The data set was divided into two eras, 1955–1984 and 1985–2017, and an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the seasonal distribution of the abiotic niche of C. finmarchicus in both eras. Comparing outputs between eras reveals an increase in habitat suitability at the Arctic range edge. Large and significant increases in suitability are predicted in the regions of the Greenland, Labrador, and Southern Barents Seas that have experienced reduced sea‐ice cover. With the exception of the Barents Sea, these areas also show a seasonal shift in the timing of peak habitat suitability toward an earlier season. Our findings suggest that the Atlantification of Arctic zooplankton communities is accompanied by climate‐driven phenology changes. Although seasonality is a critical constraint to the establishment of C. finmarchicus at Arctic latitudes, earlier sea‐ice retreat and associated productivity is making these environments increasingly favorable for this subarctic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Lanternfish (Myctophidae) are one of the most abundant and ecologically important families of pelagic teleosts, yet how these species will respond to climate change is unclear, especially within polar regions. The aim of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Southern Ocean lanternfish and to relate these predicted responses to species traits. Location: Circumpolar, 35–75°S. Methods: We used MaxEnt ecological niche models to estimate the present and predict the future distributions of 10 biomass‐dominant lanternfish species throughout the region. Future conditions were simulated using eight climate models, in both stabilizing (RCP 4.5) and rising (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios, for the time periods 2006–2055 and 2050–2099. Species responses were then related to their realized thermal niche (i.e., thermal tolerance range), latitudinal preference and body size. Results: Despite large variation between climate model simulations, all but one species are consistently predicted to undergo a poleward distribution shift. Species show contrasting projections relating to a gain or loss of suitable habitat which was best explained by their thermal niche. Overall, high‐latitude Antarctic species were found to have narrower thermal niches and a higher likelihood of losing habitat than sub‐Antarctic species. Main conclusions: The direction of a species response was dependent on the interplay between physiology (realized thermal niche) and biogeography (latitudinal preference). Antarctic species with restricted thermal niches and limited available habitat in which to disperse will be the most vulnerable group of Southern Ocean lanternfish in the face of climate change. Predicted range shifts may alter the size structure of the myctophid community as smaller, sub‐Antarctic species reach further south. This could have implications for trophic interactions and thus the wider Southern Ocean ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term monitoring of seabird numbers around Antarctica has revealed that the chinstrap penguin ( Pygoscelis antarctica) is largely declining throughout its range in the Scotia Arc. Whether archipelagos across this large area remain connected via dispersal or represent genetically isolated groups has not yet been established. The purpose of this study was to assess the level of genetic differentiation between four breeding colonies on the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), South Shetland, South Orkney, and South Sandwich Islands using microsatellite-based analysis of population structure. All colonies had similar levels of genetic diversity (mean heterozygosity, H = 0.583) but colonies from the WAP and South Orkney Island had significant inbreeding coefficients. Hierarchical and pairwise F-statistics revealed very limited population structure in the Scotia Arc, with weak differentiation between colonies from the WAP, South Shetland and South Orkney Islands relative to the South Sandwich Islands, which are situated at least 1000 km apart from these other archipelagos. Bayesian model-based clustering methods found no evidence of significant population structuring, suggesting that whilst some isolation by distance may occur, there are no strong barriers to dispersal across this wide geographic range. No evidence of sex-biased dispersal was detected. We conclude that chinstrap penguin colonies across the Scotia Arc represent one interconnected breeding population. High levels of gene flow may be important in maintaining smaller, less stable colonies, and this status should be preserved by creating dispersal corridors throughout the Scotia Arc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the community size structure of Arctic copepods toward smaller and less fat individuals or species have been linked to environmental changes. The underpinning mechanisms are, however, poorly understood. We use a two‐step hurdle regression model to analyze spatially resolved, long‐term survey data of the Barents Sea mesozooplankton community along gradients of water mass properties, sea ice, and bottom depth. We test the hypothesis that reduced visual predation, and hence increased survival in dim habitats, explains the distribution of large copepods. We expect the presence and biomass of large copepods to increase with increasing bottom depth and the occurrence of seasonal ice‐cover. The patterns and drivers that emerge from our analysis support our hypothesis: in the Barents Sea large copepods were predominantly found in deep troughs that intersect the shelf south of the polar front, or at shallower depths in seasonally ice‐covered waters northeast of Svalbard. On the banks, large copepods are largely absent whereas smaller copepods appear to survive. Top‐down control provides one plausible explanation for these distributions. Large copepods survive where sea‐ice shades the water or deep habitats permit escape from visual predators through vertical migrations. However, when upwelled onto shallow banks or flushed out from below the ice they are decimated by visual foragers. Therefore, advection and topographic blockage of vertical zooplankton distributions are key mechanisms for the efficient energy transfer and productivity in subarctic and Arctic shelf seas. New prolific foraging grounds may open up for planktivores where the ice‐edge recedes under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine environments have increased in temperature by an average of 1°C since pre-industrial (1850) times [ 1 ]. Given that species ranges are closely allied to physiological thermal tolerances in marine organisms [ 2 ], it may therefore be expected that ocean warming would lead to abundance increases at poleward side of ranges and abundance declines toward the equator [ 3 ]. Here, we report a global analysis of abundance trends of 304 widely distributed marine species over the last century, across a range of taxonomic groups from phytoplankton to fish and marine mammals. Specifically, using a literature database, we investigate the extent that the direction and strength of long-term species abundance changes depend on the sampled location within the latitudinal range of species. Our results show that abundance increases have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the poleward side of species ranges, and abundance declines have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the equatorward side of species ranges. These data provide evidence of omnipresent large-scale changes in abundance of marine species consistent with warming over the last century and suggest that adaptation has not provided a buffer against the negative effects of warmer conditions at the equatorward extent of species ranges. On the basis of these results, we suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 [ 4 ] will continue to drive latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods. • Global-scale analysis of marine species shows abundance changes linked to warming • Increases at poleward sides of species ranges reflect new ecological opportunities • Declines at equatorward sides show failure to adapt to rapid climate change • Results imply future warming will impact further on abundance of marine species Globally, the oceans have warmed by over 1°C during the last century. Hastings, Rutterford, et al. show how marine species are responding. At the poleward sides of species ranges, populations are increasing as warming makes habitat more favorable, but at equatorward sides, populations are shrinking as seas become too warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the 1950s onwards, programmes to promote aquaculture and improve capture fisheries in East Africa have relied heavily on the promise held by introduced species. In Tanzania these introductions have been poorly documented. Here we report the findings of surveys of inland water bodies across Tanzania between 2011 and 2017 that clarify distributions of tilapiine cichlids of the genus Oreochromis. We identified Oreochromis from 123 sampling locations, including 14 taxa restricted to their native range and three species that have established populations beyond their native range. Of these three species, the only exotic species found was blue-spotted tilapia (Oreochromis leucostictus), while Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and Singida tilapia (Oreochromis esculentus), which are both naturally found within the country of Tanzania, have been translocated beyond their native range. Using our records, we developed models of suitable habitat for the introduced species based on recent (1960-1990) and projected (2050, 2070) East African climate. These models indicated that presence of suitable habitat for these introduced species will persist and potentially expand across the region. The clarification of distributions provided here can help inform the monitoring and management of biodiversity, and inform policy related to the future role of introduced species in fisheries and aquaculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple initiatives have called for large-scale representative networks of marine protected areas (MPAs). MPAs should be ecologically representative to be effective, but in large, remote regions this can be difficult to quantify and assess. We present a novel bioregionalization for the Southern Ocean, which uses the modelled circumpolar habitat importance of 17 marine bird and mammal species. The habitat-use of these predators indicates biodiversity patterns that require representation in Southern Ocean conservation and management planning. In the predator habitat importance predictions, we identified 17 statistical clusters, falling into four larger groups. We characterized and contrasted these clusters based on their predator, prey and oceanographic characteristics. Under the existing Southern Ocean MPA network, some clusters fall short of 10 % representation, yet others meet or exceed these targets. Implementation of currently proposed MPAs can in some cases contribute to meeting even 30 % spatial coverage conservation targets. However, the effectiveness of mixed-use versus no-take MPAs should be taken into consideration, since some clusters are not adequately represented by no-take MPAs. These results, combined with previous studies in the Southern Ocean, can help inform the continued design, implementation, and evaluation of a representative system of MPAs for Southern Ocean conservation and management. • Marine Protected Areas should be ecologically representative to be effective. • We produced a Southern Ocean bioregionalisation based on predator use. • We identified 17 statistical clusters, falling into four larger groups. • Some clusters are not adequately represented in current Marine Protected Areas. • Proposed Marine Protected Areas can contribute to meeting conservation targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to an unfortunate turn of events, four rows in Table 2 were transposed. Hence, the original article has been corrected. The corrected section (part of 'Minor catchments') of Table 2 is also published here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]