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We use observations from the APOGEE survey to explore the relationship between stellar parameters and multiplicity. We combine high-resolution repeat spectroscopy for 41,363 dwarf and subgiant stars with abundance measurements from the APOGEE pipeline and distances and stellar parameters derived using \textit{Gaia} DR2 parallaxes from \cite{Sanders2018} to identify and characterise stellar multiples with periods below 30 years, corresponding to \drvm$\gtrsim$ 3 \kms, where \drvm\ is the maximum APOGEE-detected shift in the radial velocities. Chemical composition is responsible for most of the variation in the close binary fraction in our sample, with stellar parameters like mass and age playing a secondary role. In addition to the previously identified strong anti-correlation between the close binary fraction and \feh\, we find that high abundances of $\alpha$ elements also suppress multiplicity at most values of \feh\ sampled by APOGEE. The anti-correlation between $\alpha$ abundances and multiplicity is substantially steeper than that observed for Fe, suggesting C, O, and Si in the form of dust and ices dominate the opacity of primordial protostellar disks and their propensity for fragmentation via gravitational stability. Near \feh{} = 0 dex, the bias-corrected close binary fraction ($a<10$ au) decreases from $\approx$ 100 per cent at \alh{} = $-$0.2 dex to $\approx$ 15 per cent near \alh{} = 0.08 dex, with a suggestive turn-up to $\approx$20 per cent near \alh{} = 0.2. We conclude that the relationship between stellar multiplicity and chemical composition for sun-like dwarf stars in the field of the Milky Way is complex, and that this complexity should be accounted for in future studies of interacting binaries., Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, plus appendices; accepted to MNRAS

It is well known in astronomy that propagating non-Gaussian prediction uncertainty in photometric redshift estimates is key to reducing bias in downstream cosmological analyses. Similarly, likelihood-free inference approaches, which are beginning to emerge as a tool for cosmological analysis, require a characterization of the full uncertainty landscape of the parameters of interest given observed data. However, most machine learning (ML) or training-based methods with open-source software target point prediction or classification, and hence fall short in quantifying uncertainty in complex regression and parameter inference settings. As an alternative to methods that focus on predicting the response (or parameters) $\mathbf{y}$ from features $\mathbf{x}$, we provide nonparametric conditional density estimation (CDE) tools for approximating and validating the entire probability density function (PDF) $\mathrm{p}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{x})$ of $\mathbf{y}$ given (i.e., conditional on) $\mathbf{x}$. As there is no one-size-fits-all CDE method, the goal of this work is to provide a comprehensive range of statistical tools and open-source software for nonparametric CDE and method assessment which can accommodate different types of settings and be easily fit to the problem at hand. Specifically, we introduce four CDE software packages in $\texttt{Python}$ and $\texttt{R}$ based on ML prediction methods adapted and optimized for CDE: $\texttt{NNKCDE}$, $\texttt{RFCDE}$, $\texttt{FlexCode}$, and $\texttt{DeepCDE}$. Furthermore, we present the $\texttt{cdetools}$ package, which includes functions for computing a CDE loss function for tuning and assessing the quality of individual PDFs, along with diagnostic functions. We provide sample code in $\texttt{Python}$ and $\texttt{R}$ as well as examples of applications to photometric redshift estimation and likelihood-free cosmological inference via CDE., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables

We present image-based evolution of galaxy mergers from the Illustris cosmological simulation at 12 time-steps over 0.5 < z < 5. To do so, we created approximately one million synthetic deep Hubble Space Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope images and measured common morphological indicators. Using the merger tree, we assess methods to observationally select mergers with stellar mass ratios as low as 10:1 completing within +/- 250 Myr of the mock observation. We confirm that common one- or two-dimensional statistics select mergers so defined with low purity and completeness, leading to high statistical errors. As an alternative, we train redshift-dependent random forests (RFs) based on 5-10 inputs. Cross-validation shows the RFs yield superior, yet still imperfect, measurements of the late-stage merger fraction, and they select more mergers in bulge-dominated galaxies. When applied to CANDELS morphology catalogs, the RFs estimate a merger rate increasing to at least z = 3, albeit two times higher than expected by theory. This suggests possible mismatches in the feedback-determined morphologies, but affirms the basic understanding of galaxy merger evolution. The RFs achieve completeness of roughly 70% at 0.5 < z < 3, and purity increasing from 10% at z = 0.5 to 60% at z = 3. At earlier times, the training sets are insufficient, motivating larger simulations and smaller time sampling. By blending large surveys and large simulations, such machine learning techniques offer a promising opportunity to teach us the strengths and weaknesses of inferences about galaxy evolution., Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, MNRAS accepted version

We use the multi-epoch radial velocities acquired by the APOGEE survey to perform a large scale statistical study of stellar multiplicity for field stars in the Milky Way, spanning the evolutionary phases between the main sequence and the red clump. We show that the distribution of maximum radial velocity shifts (\drvm) for APOGEE targets is a strong function of \logg, with main sequence stars showing \drvm\ as high as $\sim$300 \kms, and steadily dropping down to $\sim$30 \kms\ for \logg$\sim$0, as stars climb up the Red Giant Branch (RGB). Red clump stars show a distribution of \drvm\ values comparable to that of stars at the tip of the RGB, implying they have similar multiplicity characteristics. The observed attrition of high \drvm\ systems in the RGB is consistent with a lognormal period distribution in the main sequence and a multiplicity fraction of 0.35, which is truncated at an increasing period as stars become physically larger and undergo mass transfer after Roche Lobe Overflow during H shell burning. The \drvm\ distributions also show that the multiplicity characteristics of field stars are metallicity dependent, with metal-poor ([Fe/H]$\lesssim-0.5$) stars having a multiplicity fraction a factor 2-3 higher than metal-rich ([Fe/H]$\gtrsim0.0$) stars. This has profound implications for the formation rates of interacting binaries observed by astronomical transient surveys and gravitational wave detectors, as well as the habitability of circumbinary planets., Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, replaced with version accepted by ApJ

We study the orientations of satellite galaxies in redMaPPer clusters constructed from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey at $0.1

Photometric redshift estimation is an indispensable tool of precision cosmology. One problem that plagues the use of this tool in the era of large-scale sky surveys is that the bright galaxies that are selected for spectroscopic observation do not have properties that match those of (far more numerous) dimmer galaxies; thus, ill-designed empirical methods that produce accurate and precise redshift estimates for the former generally will not produce good estimates for the latter. In this paper, we provide a principled framework for generating conditional density estimates (i.e. photometric redshift PDFs) that takes into account selection bias and the covariate shift that this bias induces. We base our approach on the assumption that the probability that astronomers label a galaxy (i.e. determine its spectroscopic redshift) depends only on its measured (photometric and perhaps other) properties x and not on its true redshift. With this assumption, we can explicitly write down risk functions that allow us to both tune and compare methods for estimating importance weights (i.e. the ratio of densities of unlabeled and labeled galaxies for different values of x) and conditional densities. We also provide a method for combining multiple conditional density estimates for the same galaxy into a single estimate with better properties. We apply our risk functions to an analysis of approximately one million galaxies, mostly observed by SDSS, and demonstrate through multiple diagnostic tests that our method achieves good conditional density estimates for the unlabeled galaxies., Comment: 11 pages; accepted by MNRAS

The shapes of cluster central galaxies are not randomly oriented, but rather exhibit coherent alignments with the shapes of their parent clusters as well as with the surrounding large-scale structures. In this work, we aim to identify the galaxy and cluster quantities that most strongly predict the central galaxy alignment phenomenon among a large parameter space with a sample of 8237 clusters and 94817 members within 0.1

Redshift is a key quantity for inferring cosmological model parameters. In photometric redshift estimation, cosmologists use the coarse data collected from the vast majority of galaxies to predict the redshift of individual galaxies. To properly quantify the uncertainty in the predictions, however, one needs to go beyond standard regression and instead estimate the full conditional density f(z|x) of a galaxy's redshift z given its photometric covariates x. The problem is further complicated by selection bias: usually only the rarest and brightest galaxies have known redshifts, and these galaxies have characteristics and measured covariates that do not necessarily match those of more numerous and dimmer galaxies of unknown redshift. Unfortunately, there is not much research on how to best estimate complex multivariate densities in such settings. Here we describe a general framework for properly constructing and assessing nonparametric conditional density estimators under selection bias, and for combining two or more estimators for optimal performance. We propose new improved photo-z estimators and illus- trate our methods on data from the Sloan Data Sky Survey and an application to galaxy-galaxy lensing. Although our main application is photo-z estimation, our methods are relevant to any high-dimensional regression setting with complicated asymmetric and multimodal distributions in the response variable.

We construct a catalogue for filaments using a novel approach called SCMS (subspace constrained mean shift; Ozertem & Erdogmus 2011; Chen et al. 2015). SCMS is a gradient-based method that detects filaments through density ridges (smooth curves tracing high-density regions). A great advantage of SCMS is its uncertainty measure, which allows an evaluation of the errors for the detected filaments. To detect filaments, we use data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, which consist of three galaxy samples: the NYU main galaxy sample (MGS), the LOWZ sample and the CMASS sample. Each of the three dataset covers different redshift regions so that the combined sample allows detection of filaments up to z = 0.7. Our filament catalogue consists of a sequence of two-dimensional filament maps at different redshifts that provide several useful statistics on the evolution cosmic web. To construct the maps, we select spectroscopically confirmed galaxies within 0.050 < z < 0.700 and partition them into 130 bins. For each bin, we ignore the redshift, treating the galaxy observations as a 2-D data and detect filaments using SCMS. The filament catalogue consists of 130 individual 2-D filament maps, and each map comprises points on the detected filaments that describe the filamentary structures at a particular redshift. We also apply our filament catalogue to investigate galaxy luminosity and its relation with distance to filament. Using a volume-limited sample, we find strong evidence (6.1$\sigma$ - 12.3$\sigma$) that galaxies close to filaments are generally brighter than those at significant distance from filaments., Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables

We study the effects of filaments on galaxy properties in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 12 using filaments from the `Cosmic Web Reconstruction' catalogue (Chen et al. 2016), a publicly available filament catalogue for SDSS. Since filaments are tracers of medium-to-high density regions, we expect that galaxy properties associated with the environment are dependent on the distance to the nearest filament. Our analysis demonstrates that a red galaxy or a high-mass galaxy tend to reside closer to filaments than a blue or low-mass galaxy. After adjusting the effect from stellar mass, on average, early-forming galaxies or large galaxies have a shorter distance to filaments than late-forming galaxies or small galaxies. For the Main galaxy sample (MGS), all signals are very significant ($>6\sigma$). For the LOWZ and CMASS sample, the stellar mass and size are significant ($>2 \sigma$). The filament effects we observe persist until $z = 0.7$ (the edge of the CMASS sample). Comparing our results to those using the galaxy distances from redMaPPer galaxy clusters as a reference, we find a similar result between filaments and clusters. Moreover, we find that the effect of clusters on the stellar mass of nearby galaxies depends on the galaxy's filamentary environment. Our findings illustrate the strong correlation of galaxy properties with proximity to density ridges, strongly supporting the claim that density ridges are good tracers of filaments., Comment: To appear in MNRAS

The intrinsic scatter in the ellipticities of galaxies about the mean shape, known as "shape noise," is the most important source of noise in weak lensing shear measurements. Several approaches to reducing shape noise have recently been put forward, using information beyond photometry, such as radio polarization and optical spectroscopy. Here we investigate how well the intrinsic ellipticities of galaxies can be predicted using other, exclusively photometric parameters. These parameters (such as galaxy colours) are already available in the data and do not necessitate additional, often expensive observations. We apply two regression techniques, generalized additive models (GAM) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to the publicly released data catalog of galaxy properties from CFHTLenS. In our simple analysis we find that the individual galaxy ellipticities can indeed be predicted from other photometric parameters to better precision than the scatter about the mean ellipticity. This means that without additional observations beyond photometry the ellipticity contribution to the shear can be measured to higher precision, comparable to using a larger sample of galaxies. Our best-fit model, achieved using PPR, yields a gain equivalent to having 114.3% more galaxies. Using only parameters unaffected by lensing (e.g.~surface brightness, colour), the gain is only ~12%., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to MNRAS on Aug. 19

In this paper, we study the filamentary structures and the galaxy alignment along filaments at redshift $z=0.06$ in the MassiveBlack-II simulation, a state-of-the-art, high-resolution hydrodynamical cosmological simulation which includes stellar and AGN feedback in a volume of (100 Mpc$/h$)$^3$. The filaments are constructed using the subspace constrained mean shift (SCMS; Ozertem & Erdogmus (2011) and Chen et al. (2015a)). First, we show that reconstructed filaments using galaxies and reconstructed filaments using dark matter particles are similar to each other; over $50\%$ of the points on the galaxy filaments have a corresponding point on the dark matter filaments within distance $0.13$ Mpc$/h$ (and vice versa) and this distance is even smaller at high-density regions. Second, we observe the alignment of the major principal axis of a galaxy with respect to the orientation of its nearest filament and detect a $2.5$ Mpc$/h$ critical radius for filament's influence on the alignment when the subhalo mass of this galaxy is between $10^9M_\odot/h$ and $10^{12}M_\odot/h$. Moreover, we find the alignment signal to increase significantly with the subhalo mass. Third, when a galaxy is close to filaments (less than $0.25$ Mpc$/h$), the galaxy alignment toward the nearest galaxy group depends on the galaxy subhalo mass. Finally, we find that galaxies close to filaments or groups tend to be rounder than those away from filaments or groups., Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures

Important but rare and subtle processes driving galaxy morphology and star-formation may be missed by traditional spiral, elliptical, irregular or S\'ersic bulge/disk classifications. To overcome this limitation, we use a principal component analysis of non-parametric morphological indicators (concentration, asymmetry, Gini coefficient, $M_{20}$, multi-mode, intensity and deviation) measured at rest-frame $B$-band (corresponding to HST/WFC3 F125W at 1.4 $< z <$ 2) to trace the natural distribution of massive ($>10^{10} M_{\odot}$) galaxy morphologies. Principal component analysis (PCA) quantifies the correlations between these morphological indicators and determines the relative importance of each. The first three principal components (PCs) capture $\sim$75 per cent of the variance inherent to our sample. We interpret the first principal component (PC) as bulge strength, the second PC as dominated by concentration and the third PC as dominated by asymmetry. Both PC1 and PC2 correlate with the visual appearance of a central bulge and predict galaxy quiescence. PC1 is a better predictor of quenching than stellar mass, as as good as other structural indicators (S\'ersic-n or compactness). We divide the PCA results into groups using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. Unlike S\'ersic, this classification scheme separates compact galaxies from larger, smooth proto-elliptical systems, and star-forming disk-dominated clumpy galaxies from star-forming bulge-dominated asymmetric galaxies. Distinguishing between these galaxy structural types in a quantitative manner is an important step towards understanding the connections between morphology, galaxy assembly and star-formation., Comment: 31 pages, 24 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

The detection and characterization of filamentary structures in the cosmic web allows cosmologists to constrain parameters that dictates the evolution of the Universe. While many filament estimators have been proposed, they generally lack estimates of uncertainty, reducing their inferential power. In this paper, we demonstrate how one may apply the Subspace Constrained Mean Shift (SCMS) algorithm (Ozertem and Erdogmus (2011); Genovese et al. (2012)) to uncover filamentary structure in galaxy data. The SCMS algorithm is a gradient ascent method that models filaments as density ridges, one-dimensional smooth curves that trace high-density regions within the point cloud. We also demonstrate how augmenting the SCMS algorithm with bootstrap-based methods of uncertainty estimation allows one to place uncertainty bands around putative filaments. We apply the SCMS method to datasets sampled from the P3M N-body simulation, with galaxy number densities consistent with SDSS and WFIRST-AFTA and to LOWZ and CMASS data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). To further assess the efficacy of SCMS, we compare the relative locations of BOSS filaments with galaxy clusters in the redMaPPer catalog, and find that redMaPPer clusters are significantly closer (with p-values $< 10^{-9}$) to SCMS-detected filaments than to randomly selected galaxies., Comment: To appear in MNRAS. 18 pages, 19 figures, 1 table

Visualizing the high-redshift Universe is difficult due to the dearth of available data; however, the Lyman-alpha forest provides a means to map the intergalactic medium at redshifts not accessible to large galaxy surveys. Large-scale structure surveys, such as the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), have collected quasar (QSO) spectra that enable the reconstruction of HI density fluctuations. The data fall on a collection of lines defined by the lines-of-sight (LOS) of the QSO, and a major issue with producing a 3D reconstruction is determining how to model the regions between the LOS. We present a method that produces a 3D map of this relatively uncharted portion of the Universe by employing local polynomial smoothing, a nonparametric methodology. The performance of the method is analyzed on simulated data that mimics the varying number of LOS expected in real data, and then is applied to a sample region selected from BOSS. Evaluation of the reconstruction is assessed by considering various features of the predicted 3D maps including visual comparison of slices, PDFs, counts of local minima and maxima, and standardized correlation functions. This 3D reconstruction allows for an initial investigation of the topology of this portion of the Universe using persistent homology.

Many estimation problems in astrophysics are highly complex, with high-dimensional, non-standard data objects (e.g., images, spectra, entire distributions, etc.) that are not amenable to formal statistical analysis. To utilize such data and make accurate inferences, it is crucial to transform the data into a simpler, reduced form. Spectral kernel methods are non-linear data transformation methods that efficiently reveal the underlying geometry of observable data. Here we focus on one particular technique: diffusion maps or more generally spectral connectivity analysis (SCA). We give examples of applications in astronomy; e.g., photometric redshift estimation, prototype selection for estimation of star formation history, and supernova light curve classification. We outline some computational and statistical challenges that remain, and we discuss some promising future directions for astronomy and data mining., Comment: Invited talk at SCMA V, Penn State University, June 2011, PA. To appear in the Proceedings of "Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy V"

Parameter estimation in astrophysics often requires the use of complex physical models. In this paper we study the problem of estimating the parameters that describe star formation history (SFH) in galaxies. Here, high-dimensional spectral data from galaxies are appropriately modeled as linear combinations of physical components, called simple stellar populations (SSPs), plus some nonlinear distortions. Theoretical data for each SSP is produced for a fixed parameter vector via computer modeling. Though the parameters that define each SSP are continuous, optimizing the signal model over a large set of SSPs on a fine parameter grid is computationally infeasible and inefficient. The goal of this study is to estimate the set of parameters that describes the SFH of each galaxy. These target parameters, such as the average ages and chemical compositions of the galaxy's stellar populations, are derived from the SSP parameters and the component weights in the signal model. Here, we introduce a principled approach of choosing a small basis of SSP prototypes for SFH parameter estimation. The basic idea is to quantize the vector space and effective support of the model components. In addition to greater computational efficiency, we achieve better estimates of the SFH target parameters. In simulations, our proposed quantization method obtains a substantial improvement in estimating the target parameters over the common method of employing a parameter grid. Sparse coding techniques are not appropriate for this problem without proper constraints, while constrained sparse coding methods perform poorly for parameter estimation because their objective is signal reconstruction, not estimation of the target parameters., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS500 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

We present a semi-supervised method for photometric supernova typing. Our approach is to first use the nonlinear dimension reduction technique diffusion map to detect structure in a database of supernova light curves and subsequently employ random forest classification on a spectroscopically confirmed training set to learn a model that can predict the type of each newly observed supernova. We demonstrate that this is an effective method for supernova typing. As supernova numbers increase, our semi-supervised method efficiently utilizes this information to improve classification, a property not enjoyed by template based methods. Applied to supernova data simulated by Kessler et al. (2010b) to mimic those of the Dark Energy Survey, our methods achieve (cross-validated) 95% Type Ia purity and 87% Type Ia efficiency on the spectroscopic sample, but only 50% Type Ia purity and 50% efficiency on the photometric sample due to their spectroscopic follow-up strategy. To improve the performance on the photometric sample, we search for better spectroscopic follow-up procedures by studying the sensitivity of our machine learned supernova classification on the specific strategy used to obtain training sets. With a fixed amount of spectroscopic follow-up time, we find that deeper magnitude-limited spectroscopic surveys are better for producing training sets. For supernova Ia (II-P) typing, we obtain a 44% (1%) increase in purity to 72% (87%) and 30% (162%) increase in efficiency to 65% (84%) of the sample using a 25th (24.5th) magnitude-limited survey instead of the shallower spectroscopic sample used in the original simulations. When redshift information is available, we incorporate it into our analysis using a novel method of altering the diffusion map representation of the supernovae. Incorporating host redshifts leads to a 5% improvement in Type Ia purity and 13% improvement in Type Ia efficiency., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

To further our knowledge of the complex physical process of galaxy formation, it is essential that we characterize the formation and evolution of large databases of galaxies. The spectral synthesis STARLIGHT code of Cid Fernandes et al. (2004) was designed for this purpose. Results of STARLIGHT are highly dependent on the choice of input basis of simple stellar population (SSP) spectra. Speed of the code, which uses random walks through the parameter space, scales as the square of the number of basis spectra, making it computationally necessary to choose a small number of SSPs that are coarsely sampled in age and metallicity. In this paper, we develop methods based on diffusion map (Lafon & Lee, 2006) that, for the first time, choose appropriate bases of prototype SSP spectra from a large set of SSP spectra designed to approximate the continuous grid of age and metallicity of SSPs of which galaxies are truly composed. We show that our techniques achieve better accuracy of physical parameter estimation for simulated galaxies. Specifically, we show that our methods significantly decrease the age-metallicity degeneracy that is common in galaxy population synthesis methods. We analyze a sample of 3046 galaxies in SDSS DR6 and compare the parameter estimates obtained from different basis choices., Comment: Resubmitted to MNRAS; 16 pages, 15 figures

The distributions of galaxy properties vary with environment, and are often multimodal, suggesting that the galaxy population may be a combination of multiple components. The behaviour of these components versus environment holds details about the processes of galaxy development. To release this information we apply a novel, nonparametric statistical technique, identifying four components present in the distribution of galaxy H$\alpha$ emission-line equivalent-widths. We interpret these components as passive, star-forming, and two varieties of active galactic nuclei. Independent of this interpretation, the properties of each component are remarkably constant as a function of environment. Only their relative proportions display substantial variation. The galaxy population thus appears to comprise distinct components which are individually independent of environment, with galaxies rapidly transitioning between components as they move into denser environments., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Dimension-reduction techniques can greatly improve statistical inference in astronomy. A standard approach is to use Principal Components Analysis (PCA). In this work we apply a recently-developed technique, diffusion maps, to astronomical spectra for data parameterization and dimensionality reduction, and develop a robust, eigenmode-based framework for regression. We show how our framework provides a computationally efficient means by which to predict redshifts of galaxies, and thus could inform more expensive redshift estimators such as template cross-correlation. It also provides a natural means by which to identify outliers (e.g., misclassified spectra, spectra with anomalous features). We analyze 3835 SDSS spectra and show how our framework yields a more than 95% reduction in dimensionality. Finally, we show that the prediction error of the diffusion map-based regression approach is markedly smaller than that of a similar approach based on PCA, clearly demonstrating the superiority of diffusion maps over PCA for this regression task., Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures

We forecast the constraints on the values of sigma_8, Omega_m, and cluster scaling relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Lambda-CDM Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity-temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only (T,z) self-calibration, we expect to measure Omega_m to +-0.03 (and Omega_Lambda to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and sigma_8 to +-0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity-temperature relation to +-6 and +-13 per cent (at 1sigma) respectively in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity-temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2sigma or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new `smoothed ML' estimate of expected constraints., Comment: 28 pages, 17 figures. Revised version, as accepted for publication in MNRAS. High-resolution figures available at http://xcs-home.org (under "Publications")

The ever-increasing quality and complexity of astronomical data underscores the need for new and powerful data analysis applications. This need has led to the development of Sherpa, a modeling and fitting program in the CIAO software package that enables the analysis of multi-dimensional, multi-wavelength data. In this paper, we present an overview of Sherpa's features, which include: support for a wide variety of input and output data formats, including the new Model Descriptor List (MDL) format; a model language which permits the construction of arbitrarily complex model expressions, including ones representing instrument characteristics; a wide variety of fit statistics and methods of optimization, model comparison, and parameter estimation; multi-dimensional visualization, provided by ChIPS; and new interactive analysis capabilities provided by embedding the S-Lang interpreted scripting language. We conclude by showing example Sherpa analysis sessions., Comment: To appear in Proc. SPIE Conf. 4477. 12 pages, 4 figures

Wavelets are scaleable, oscillatory functions that deviate from zero only within a limited spatial regime and have average value zero. In addition to their use as source characterizers, wavelet functions are rapidly gaining currency within the source detection field. Wavelet-based source detection involves the correlation of scaled wavelet functions with binned, two-dimensional image data. If the chosen wavelet function exhibits the property of vanishing moments, significantly non-zero correlation coefficients will be observed only where there are high-order variations in the data; e.g., they will be observed in the vicinity of sources. In this paper, we describe the mission-independent, wavelet-based source detection algorithm WAVDETECT, part of the CIAO software package. Aspects of our algorithm include: (1) the computation of local, exposure-corrected normalized (i.e. flat-fielded) background maps; (2) the correction for exposure variations within the field-of-view; (3) its applicability within the low-counts regime, as it does not require a minimum number of background counts per pixel for the accurate computation of source detection thresholds; (4) the generation of a source list in a manner that does not depend upon a detailed knowledge of the point spread function (PSF) shape; and (5) error analysis. These features make our algorithm considerably more general than previous methods developed for the analysis of X-ray image data, especially in the low count regime. We demonstrate the algorithm's robustness by applying it to various images., Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap. J. Supp. (v. 138 Jan. 2002). 61 pages, 23 figures, expands to 3.8 Mb. Abstract abridged for astro-ph submission