24 results on '"Frederick Parente"'
Search Results
2. A Quantitative Analysis for Non-Numeric Data
- Author
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Frederick, Parente, primary, Finley, John Christopher, additional, and Magalis, Christopher, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Cognitive differences between adults with traumatic brain injury and specific learning disorder
- Author
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John-Christopher Finley, Frederick Parente, and Emily F Matusz
- Subjects
Adult ,030506 rehabilitation ,Traumatic brain injury ,Working memory ,Neuroscience (miscellaneous) ,Cognition ,Neuropsychological Tests ,medicine.disease ,03 medical and health sciences ,Memory, Short-Term ,0302 clinical medicine ,Brain Injuries, Traumatic ,Learning disability ,Specific Learning Disorder ,Developmental and Educational Psychology ,medicine ,Humans ,Neurology (clinical) ,medicine.symptom ,0305 other medical science ,Psychology ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Clinical psychology - Abstract
Background: Impaired working memory, attention, and processing speed are common in individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and specific learning disorder (SLD). Yet, there is a paucity of res...
- Published
- 2021
4. Organization and recall of visual information after traumatic brain injury
- Author
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Frederick Parente and John-Christopher Finley
- Subjects
030506 rehabilitation ,Recall ,Traumatic brain injury ,Neuroscience (miscellaneous) ,medicine.disease ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Brain Injuries ,Brain Injuries, Traumatic ,Mental Recall ,Developmental and Educational Psychology ,medicine ,Humans ,Learning ,Neurology (clinical) ,Students ,0305 other medical science ,Psychology ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Cognitive psychology - Abstract
Subjective organization (SO) is the ability to structure information to help facilitate storage and retrieval. There is a paucity of research concerning how a person subjectively organizes visual information.This study investigates whether traumatic brain injury (TBI) hinders the ability to subjectively organize and recall visual symbols. The authors use an Association Rule Modeling (ARM) procedure to measure SO and explore whether the complexity of the rules generated from the ARM predicted recall of symbols.Twenty-two collegiate athletes with self-reported, repetitive, mild TBI and 22 college students without TBI participated. All participants completed a list learning task that assessed their free recall of unfamiliar symbols. ARM revealed the associative structure among the symbols in the list for each participant.Results showed that collegiate athletes with repetitive, mild TBI develop significantly fewer association rules for visual stimuli compared to college students without TBI. Furthermore, collegiate athletes with TBI produce fewer complex SO rules for the visual stimuli relative to college students without TBI.Brain injury diminishes a person's ability to subjectively organize novel visual information. ARM is a sensitive clinical measure of SO for patients with TBI.
- Published
- 2020
5. Measuring subjective organization in monozygotic twins discordant for traumatic brain injury: A case report
- Author
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Frederick Parente, John-Christopher Finley, and Katie R. Davin
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030506 rehabilitation ,Recall ,Traumatic brain injury ,Rehabilitation ,Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation ,Twins, Monozygotic ,Mental Status and Dementia Tests ,medicine.disease ,Young Adult ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Free recall ,Brain Injuries, Traumatic ,Mental Recall ,medicine ,Humans ,Female ,Neurology (clinical) ,0305 other medical science ,Psychology ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,Clinical psychology - Abstract
BACKGROUND Subjective organization (SO) facilitates storage and retrieval of information but is often impaired following traumatic brain injury. No study has compared measures of SO using association rule analyses to clustering analyses. Moreover, there have been no studies investigating whether patients post-brain injury subjectively organize non-verbal information. OBJECTIVE This study investigates the relationship between SO and recall of words and symbols with participants discordant for traumatic brain injury. Additionally, the authors explored the conditions under which clustering or association rule measures of SO were best used. METHOD Two female monozygotic twins discordant for traumatic brain injury completed a multi-trial free recall test of words and symbols. The authors examined whether measures of SO derived from clustering analysis or association rule modeling could differentiate organizational abilities between participants' data. RESULTS The twin following sequential traumatic brain injuries demonstrated significantly less SO and recall relative to the twin without a traumatic brain injury. Both twins subjectively organized verbal and non-verbal information and each measure could differentiate the twins' performance. CONCLUSION The quantitative analysis of SO can provide clinicians with valuable information concerning a patient's recall performance. This study illustrates practical issues that may influence a clinician's choice of these techniques.
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- 2019
6. A 30-year retrospective case analysis in the Delphi of cognitive rehabilitation therapy
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Frederick Parente and John-Christopher Finley
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business.industry ,education ,Delphi method ,medicine.disease ,Validation methods ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,Time course ,False positive paradox ,Medicine ,Cognitive rehabilitation therapy ,Medical emergency ,Business and International Management ,Polling ,business ,computer ,Applied Psychology ,Delphi ,computer.programming_language ,Case analysis - Abstract
In 1987, Parente used the Delphi method to predict changes in the field of cognitive rehabilitation therapy (CRT). Fifty licensed professionals provided predictions about the likely occurrence and probable time courses for 31 scenarios that could possibly have occurred over the 30-year interval between 1987 and 2000+. It has now been 30 years since the initial polling; thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of these Delphic predictions, via two validation methods. First, we contacted and reviewed statistical information from nationwide data bases (i.e., Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Brain Injury Association of America) to see If the scenarios occurred. Second, we polled 12 additional professionals, most of whom had practiced in the field of CRT during the polling period and who still maintained an active practice to assess When the various remaining scenarios had occurred. In this study, probability of occurrence accuracy was approximately 80%, although there was a significant bias towards false positives. Time course predictions were accurate within 1–5 years, although there was a general bias towards underestimating the occurrence of the events.
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- 2019
7. Quantitative and Qualitative Methods for Predicting Geopolitical Events
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John-Christopher Finley and Frederick Parente
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Politics ,Economic indicator ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Political science ,Regional science ,Geopolitics ,Democracy ,media_common ,Variety (cybernetics) ,Qualitative research ,Diversity (politics) - Abstract
Predicting political, governmental, and economic events has a long history in democratic society. Economists rely on statistical methods for predicting the economic indicators and corporations require accurate forecasts to predict future market trends (Novotny & Rokova, 2011). Governments need estimates of future military readiness and likely changes in the geopolitical landscape (Timmerman, 2007). Polling during elections is commonly used to predict potential winners and losers and corresponding changes in the makeup of governing bodies (Campbell, 1996). The diversity of need for prediction has led to the development of a variety of techniques and applications that, in turn, provide information about the knowable future. What follows is a discussion of various technologies that are frequently used to assess future trends, likely scenarios, and alternative geopolitical events. We begin with a summary of commonly used quantitative and qualitative methods for predicting the future (Table 1).
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- 2020
8. Analysis of Objective Factors Related to a Successful Outcome on the National Examination for Occupational Therapists
- Author
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Janet V. DeLany, Kristin R. Archer, Frederick Parente, Sonia Lawson, and Mary Zadnik
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Cultural Studies ,Occupational therapy ,030506 rehabilitation ,medicine.medical_specialty ,020205 medical informatics ,Age differences ,business.industry ,Multimethodology ,Religious studies ,02 engineering and technology ,Certification ,Predictor variables ,Focus group ,Outcome (game theory) ,03 medical and health sciences ,Family medicine ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,medicine ,0305 other medical science ,business - Abstract
Purpose:To identify academic and demographic variables related to a successful outcome on the national certification exam for occupational therapists (National Board for Certification in Occupational Therapy [NBCOT] exam) at one academic institution with the expectation that it could be replicated with multiple institutions.Method:Binary logistic regression analyses were used to analyze three sets of academic and demographic predictors of the pass/retake outcome on the NBCOT exam.Results:Results of these analyses indicated that overall grade point average (GPA) and outcomes of specific academic coursework that was focused on practice application predicted passing the NBCOT examination on the first attempt.Conclusion:Results from this study illustrate the complexity in predicting performance on the NBCOT examination and the need to expand the predictors included in future analyses.
- Published
- 2017
9. Using association rules to measure Subjective Organization after Acquired Brain Injury
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John-Christopher Finley and Frederick Parente
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Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Association rule learning ,050109 social psychology ,Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation ,Delayed recall ,Audiology ,Neuropsychological Tests ,Association ,03 medical and health sciences ,Disability Evaluation ,0302 clinical medicine ,Noun ,medicine ,Humans ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Acquired brain injury ,Language ,Measure (data warehouse) ,Recall ,05 social sciences ,Rehabilitation ,Verbal Learning ,medicine.disease ,Test (assessment) ,Brain Injuries ,Mental Recall ,Female ,Neurology (clinical) ,Psychology ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery - Abstract
Background Subjective Organization (SO) refers to the human tendency to impose organization on our environment. Persons with Acquired Brain Injury (ABI) often lose the ability to organize however, there are no performance based measures of organization that can be used to document this disability. Objective The authors propose a method of association rule analysis (AR) that can be used as a clinical tool for assessing a patient's ability to organize. Method Twenty three patients with ABI recalled a list of twelve unrelated nouns over twelve study and test trials. Several measures of AR computed on these data were correlated with various measures of short-term, long-term, and delayed recall of the words. Results All of the AR measures correlated significantly with the short-term and long-term memory measures. The confidence measure was the best predictor of memory and the number of association rules generated was the best predictor of learning. Conclusions The confidence measure can be used as a clinical tool to assess SO with individual ABI survivors.
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- 2018
10. Use of the Delphi Method for Planning Cognitive Rehabilitation Therapy
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John Christopher Finley and Frederick Parente
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medicine.medical_specialty ,genetic structures ,business.industry ,Delphi method ,General Medicine ,equipment and supplies ,Omics ,Physical medicine and rehabilitation ,cardiovascular system ,Cerebral function ,Medicine ,cardiovascular diseases ,Cognitive rehabilitation therapy ,business ,circulatory and respiratory physiology - Abstract
Cognitive Rehabilitation Therapy (CRT) is a systematic approach to improve higher cerebral function in individuals with brain injuries [1]. The goal of CRT is to teach brain injury survivors practical strategies that compensate for, or obviate, their deficits
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- 2018
11. A Review of Measuring Subjective Organization for Individuals with Brain Injuries
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John Christopher Finley and Frederick Parente
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Order (business) ,Word Recall ,Phenomenon ,Positive transfer ,Negative transfer ,General Medicine ,Psychology ,Cognitive psychology - Abstract
Subjective organization refers to the human tendency to impose order on seemingly unrelated events in a person’s environment. This phenomenon that has been studied among individuals with acquired and traumatic brain injuries as they have a diminished ability to subjectively organize novel information. Thus, researchers have begun developing measures of subjective organization intended to be used as a diagnostic tool. The purpose of this review is to summarize what is known about subjective organization and to outline how a measure of subjective organization can be used to assess the extent of organizational deficits for persons with acquired and traumatic brain injuries. Moreover, this review will discuss the clinical implications of measuring subjective organization among individuals with a brain injury.
- Published
- 2017
12. Social functioning and neurocognitive deficits in outpatients with schizophrenia: a 2-year follow-up
- Author
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Faith Dickerson, Norman Ringel, John J. Boronow, and Frederick Parente
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Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Psychosis ,Multivariate analysis ,Cognition ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Outpatients ,Schizophrenic Psychology ,medicine ,Humans ,Social Behavior ,Psychiatry ,Biological Psychiatry ,Psychiatric Status Rating Scales ,Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale ,Cognitive disorder ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Schizophrenia ,Predictive value of tests ,Female ,Psychology ,Neurocognitive - Abstract
Neurocognitive deficits have been associated with the social functioning impairments of patients with schizophrenia. More information is needed about how cognitive status and other variables predict social functioning over defined periods of time. In this study, 72 relatively stable outpatients with schizophrenia were compared between baseline and a 2-year follow-up on measures of social functioning. Patients were also assessed with a battery of neurocognitive tests and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Results were compared by univariate and multivariate analyses. A total of four out of seven subscales of the Social Functioning Scale (SFS) and the total SFS score did not show a significant change over the 2-year period. On the three SFS subscales that did show a significant change, residual change scores were correlated with better neurocognitive performance at baseline, younger age, and shorter illness duration. For the Multnomah Community Ability Scale, 48.9% of the total score at follow-up was predicted by initial negative symptoms and scores on the Aphasia Screening Test. These results document the independent contribution of demographic variables, negative symptoms, and neurocognitive deficits to the social functioning impairments of individuals with schizophrenia.
- Published
- 1999
13. Ratings of social functioning in outpatients with schizophrenia: Patient self-report versus caregiver assessment
- Author
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Frederick Parente, Norman Ringel, and Faith Dickerson
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medicine.medical_specialty ,Social Psychology ,Strategy and Management ,Concordance ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,medicine.disease ,behavioral disciplines and activities ,Social skills ,Patient Self-Report ,Schizophrenia ,medicine ,Business and International Management ,Self report ,Psychology ,Psychiatry ,Social functioning ,Clinical psychology - Abstract
Patients with schizophrenia often have deficits in day-to-day functioning that are central to their disability. The ability of patients to rate their own social functioning, however, has not been established. In this study we examined the concordance between the ratings on the Social Functioning Scale of 58 outpatients with schizophrenia and their caregivers. We found a high level of overall concordance between the self and informant ratings. Items measuring the frequency of behaviors were among those with the highest concordance, while ratings of ability or social skill showed lower correlations. On only nine of 73 items did patients rate themselves significantly higher than did caregivers. There was no difference in concordance between family and nonfamily caregivers. These findings indicate that outpatients with schizophrenia can provide self-report ratings that are consistent with the ratings of their caregivers.
- Published
- 1997
14. Lack of insight among outpatients with schizophrenia
- Author
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Frederick Parente, Faith Dickerson, Norman Ringel, and John J. Boronow
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Adult ,Halfway Houses ,Male ,Psychosis ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Schizoaffective disorder ,Neuropsychological Tests ,Delusions ,Disability Evaluation ,Ambulatory care ,Activities of Daily Living ,Ambulatory Care ,medicine ,Humans ,Psychiatry ,Problem Solving ,Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale ,Sick role ,Sick Role ,Awareness ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Mental health ,Community Mental Health Services ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Psychotic Disorders ,Schizophrenia ,Anxiety ,Female ,Schizophrenic Psychology ,medicine.symptom ,Psychology ,Social Adjustment - Abstract
Objective This study investigated the prevalence of lack of insight among outpatients with schizophrenia and the relationship between lack of insight and other variables, including whether patients received professional residential supervision. Methods A total of 87 stable outpatients with schizophrenia were drawn from community programs in a public-private mental health system. Subjects' clinical symptoms and insight about their illness were assessed using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, a battery of neuropsychological tests, and the Social Functioning Scale. Results The illness insight of 43 subjects, or 49.5 percent, was at least moderately impaired. Twenty-one subjects, or 25 percent, had severe insight deficits. In a multiple regression analysis, 40 percent of the variance in lack of insight was predicted by ratings of the severity of delusions, difficulty with abstract thinking, lack of social activities, and absence of anxiety. Patients who received professional residential supervision had more impaired insight than those living independently or with family. Conclusions Insight deficits are common among stable outpatients engaged in community-based care. These deficits have implications for patients' use of limited services such as residential supervision.
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- 1997
15. ROUNDS, a new time-sampling methodology for the quantitative behavioral assessment of schizophrenic withdrawal
- Author
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Norman Ringel, Frederick Parente, John J. Boronow, and Ann Summerfelt
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Psychiatry and Mental health ,Treatment response ,Psychometrics ,Schizophrenia (object-oriented programming) ,Behavioral assessment ,Sampling (statistics) ,Psychology ,Sampling methodology ,Biological Psychiatry ,Social relation ,Reliability (statistics) ,Developmental psychology ,Clinical psychology - Abstract
Negative symptoms in schizophrenia have been the subject of much research interest. However, there has been a need for a way to measure withdrawal behavior quantitatively over time. We have developed a behavioral time-sampling methodology performed by nursing staff on a schizophrenia inpatient unit. Called ROUNDS, it gathers reliable and valid quantitative data about specific withdrawal behaviors such as posture, daytime sleep and levels of social interaction and activity. This paper describes the development of the method, its implementation, the statistical analysis of its reliability and validity, and the degree to which the data can be replicated with different sampling frequencies. We contend that this method can be applied to the analysis of a wide variety of questions about the nature and treatment response of schizophrenic withdrawal in an inpatient setting.
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- 1991
16. Outpatients with schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder: Do they differ in their cognitive and social functioning?
- Author
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Jewel Sommerville, Frederick Parente, Norman Ringel, Faith Dickerson, and Andrea Origoni
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Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Psychosis ,Bipolar I disorder ,Bipolar Disorder ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Neuropsychological Tests ,mental disorders ,medicine ,Ambulatory Care ,Humans ,Bipolar disorder ,Psychiatry ,Biological Psychiatry ,Social functioning ,Rehabilitation ,Memoria ,Cognition ,medicine.disease ,Community Mental Health Services ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Social Perception ,Schizophrenia ,Female ,Psychology ,Cognition Disorders - Abstract
The authors used a battery of cognitive and social functioning measures to evaluate stable outpatients with schizophrenia (n=74) and bipolar I disorder (n=26) who were receiving care at community and rehabilitation programs. The groups did not differ significantly on 36 of 41 measures. For most variables, comparisons between groups yielded effect sizes of
- Published
- 2001
17. The relationship among three measures of social functioning in outpatients with schizophrenia
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Frederick Parente, Norman Ringel, and Faith Dickerson
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Adult ,Male ,Psychometrics ,Population ,Test validity ,Developmental psychology ,Correlation ,Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) ,Quality of life ,Outpatients ,medicine ,Humans ,education ,Social Behavior ,Psychiatric Status Rating Scales ,education.field_of_study ,Construct validity ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Clinical Psychology ,Schizophrenia ,Scale (social sciences) ,Quality of Life ,Female ,Psychology - Abstract
Deficits in social functioning are a defining characteristic of schizophrenia. Several instruments have been developed to measure social functioning in this population, but there has been little study of the correlation among different instruments. We used the Social Functioning Scale (SFS), the Multnomah Community Ability Scale (MCAS), and the Quality of Life Interview (QOLI) to evaluate 72 stable outpatients with schizophrenia. Results of canonical analyses indicate a significant but limited relationship between each set of measures. The largest overlap was between the QOLI and the SFS (R2c = .597) with less shared variance found between the SFS and the MCAS (R2c = .520) and between the MCAS and the QOLI (R2c = .335). Although the instruments share some common content. the instruments measure different aspects of social functioning. A consensus is needed about how to define and measure social functioning in this population.
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- 2001
18. Predictors of residential independence among outpatients with schizophrenia
- Author
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Norman Ringel, Frederick Parente, and Faith Dickerson
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Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Discriminant function analysis ,Hygiene ,Activities of Daily Living ,Interview, Psychological ,medicine ,Ambulatory Care ,Humans ,Prospective Studies ,Psychiatry ,Residential Treatment ,media_common ,Social functioning ,Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale ,Socialization ,Neuropsychology ,Wechsler Scales ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Independence ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Schizophrenia ,Baltimore ,Quality of Life ,Residence ,Female ,Psychology ,Cognition Disorders - Abstract
Many outpatients with schizophrenia receive support or supervision in their place of residence, but the predictors of residential independence are not clearly understood. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that predict the degree of residential independence among outpatients with schizophrenia.Seventy-two outpatients with schizophrenia were assigned to three groups based on their degree of residential independence. The three groups were compared on three measures of social functioning, on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, and on a battery of neuropsychological tests.Patients' degree of residential independence was related to their frequency of family contact, hygiene skills, relative absence of negative symptoms, and participation in social activities. In a discriminant function analysis, the residential status of 78 percent of the patients was correctly classified.Aspects of social functioning are significantly associated with patients' independent living status. Future research is needed to determine how family contact, social activities, and hygiene skills may increase patients' degree of residential independence.
- Published
- 1999
19. Neurocognitive deficits and social functioning in outpatients with schizophrenia
- Author
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John J. Boronow, Frederick Parente, Faith Dickerson, and Norman Ringel
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Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Psychosis ,Activities of daily living ,Psychometrics ,Psychological intervention ,Neuropsychological Tests ,Social Environment ,Aphasia ,Outpatients ,medicine ,Humans ,Psychiatry ,Biological Psychiatry ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,Cognition ,Neuropsychological test ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Female ,Schizophrenic Psychology ,medicine.symptom ,Psychology ,Cognition Disorders ,Neurocognitive - Abstract
Previous studies suggest that neurocognitive factors may contribute to the reduced social functioning of patients with schizophrenia. To assess this relationship, we administered a battery of neurocognitive tests and independently assessed symptoms (PANSS) and social functioning (SFS) in 88 stable outpatients with schizophrenia. We found a significant correlation between neurocognitive and social functioning variables. Patients' performance on aphasia, spatial organization and visual spatial tasks was correlated with their competence at activities of daily living, frequency of social activities and total social functioning. Regression analyses of each social functioning scale revealed different symptom and neurocognitive predictors. Patients' overall social functioning was best predicted by a combination of negative symptoms and aphasia. The results support the potential use of interventions to reduce patients' cognitive deficits as a means to improve their social outcomes.
- Published
- 1996
20. Neurocognitive deficits and social functioning in outpatients with schizophrenia: A two year follow-up
- Author
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John J. Boronow, Norman Ringel, Faith Dickerson, and Frederick Parente
- Subjects
Psychiatry and Mental health ,medicine.medical_specialty ,business.industry ,Schizophrenia ,Medicine ,business ,Psychiatry ,medicine.disease ,Neurocognitive ,Biological Psychiatry ,Clinical psychology ,Social functioning - Published
- 1998
21. Quality of life in outpatients with schizophrenia
- Author
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Faith Dickerson, Norman Ringel, John J. Boronow, and Frederick Parente
- Subjects
Psychiatry and Mental health ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Quality of life (healthcare) ,business.industry ,Schizophrenia (object-oriented programming) ,Medicine ,business ,Psychiatry ,Biological Psychiatry ,Clinical psychology - Published
- 1997
22. Illness awareness in outpatients with schizophrenia
- Author
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Faith Dickerson, Norman Ringel, Frederick Parente, and John J. Boronow
- Subjects
Psychiatry and Mental health ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Schizophrenia (object-oriented programming) ,medicine ,Psychiatry ,Psychology ,Biological Psychiatry - Published
- 1996
23. Aggressive behavior and the use of seclusion/restraint in chronic schizophrenic patients
- Author
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J.J. Boronow, Faith Dickerson, Frederick Parente, and Norman Ringel
- Subjects
Psychiatry and Mental health ,medicine.medical_specialty ,business.industry ,medicine ,Psychiatry ,business ,Seclusion ,Biological Psychiatry ,Clinical psychology - Published
- 1991
24. An examination of factors contributing to delphi accuracy
- Author
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Janet K. Anderson, M A Patrick Myers, Frederick Parente, and M A Thomas O'brien
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Strategy and Management ,Delphi method ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Computer Science Applications ,Modeling and Simulation ,Statistics ,Time course ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Polling ,Wideband delphi ,computer ,Delphi ,Event (probability theory) ,computer.programming_language ,Mathematics - Abstract
Three experiments examined the accuracy in the Delphi method. The first experiment assessed the accuracy of group predictions over 1-, 2- and 3- month time spans. Results indicated that predictions derived from the group were more accurate than those of 95 per cent of the individual panelists, but did not exceed in accuracy the best panelists. Experiment 2 evaluated the gross contributions of polling and feedback to Delphi accuracy. The manipulations did not improve the group's ability to forecast the probabilities of the occurrence of events, but did decrease the error in predicting when the events would occur. Experiment 3 separated the effects of polling and feedback as determinants of accuracy. Neither manipulation improved the accuracy of the group's predictions of whether an event would occur. The effect of iterated polling was to reduce the group's error in predicting the time course for those scenarios that did occur.
- Published
- 1984
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