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Despite previous reports on European growing seasons lengthening due to global warming, evidence shows that this trend has been reversing in the past decade due to increased transpiration needs. To asses this, we used an innovative method along with space-based observations to determine the timing of greening and dormancy and then to determine existing trends of them and causes. Early greening still occurs, albeit at slower rates than before. However, a recent (2011–2020) shift in the timing of dormancy has caused the season length to decrease back to 1980s levels. This shortening of season length is attributed primarily to higher atmospheric water demand in summer that suppresses transpiration even for soil moisture levels as of previous years. Transpiration suppression implies that vegetation is unable to meet the high transpiration needs. Our results have implications for future management of European ecosystems (e.g., net carbon balance and water and energy exchange with atmosphere) in a warmer world.

Abstract. Land surface models (LSMs) use a large cohort of parameters and state variables to simulate the water and energy balance at the soil–atmosphere interface. Many of these model parameters cannot be measured directly in the field, and require calibration against measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, sensible and/or latent heat, and/or observations of the thermal and/or moisture state of the soil. Here, we evaluate the usefulness and applicability of four different data assimilation methods for joint parameter and state estimation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC-3L) and the Community Land Model (CLM) using a 5-month calibration (assimilation) period (March–July 2012) of areal-averaged SPADE soil moisture measurements at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths in the Rollesbroich experimental test site in the Eifel mountain range in western Germany. We used the EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation, respectively, and the residual resampling PF with a simple, statistically deficient, or more sophisticated, MCMC-based parameter resampling method. The performance of the calibrated LSM models was investigated using SPADE water content measurements of a 5-month evaluation period (August–December 2012). As expected, all DA methods enhance the ability of the VIC and CLM models to describe spatiotemporal patterns of moisture storage within the vadose zone of the Rollesbroich site, particularly if the maximum baseflow velocity (VIC) or fractions of sand, clay, and organic matter of each layer (CLM) are estimated jointly with the model states of each soil layer. The differences between the soil moisture simulations of VIC-3L and CLM are much larger than the discrepancies among the four data assimilation methods. The EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation yields the best performance of VIC-3L and CLM during the calibration and evaluation period, yet results are in close agreement with the PF using MCMC resampling. Overall, CLM demonstrated the best performance for the Rollesbroich site. The large systematic underestimation of water storage at 50 cm depth by VIC-3L during the first few months of the evaluation period questions, in part, the validity of its fixed water table depth at the bottom of the modeled soil domain.

The Community Land Model (CLM) contains many parameters whose values are uncertain and thus require careful estimation for model application at individual sites. Here we used Bayesian inference with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm to estimate eight CLM v.4.5 ecosystem parameters using 1 year records of half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) observations of four central European sites with different plant functional types (PFTs). The posterior CLM parameter distributions of each site were estimated per individual season and on a yearly basis. These estimates were then evaluated using NEE data from an independent evaluation period and data from “nearby” FLUXNET sites at ~600 km distance to the original sites. Latent variables (multipliers) were used to treat explicitly uncertainty in the initial carbon-nitrogen pools. The posterior parameter estimates were superior to their default values in their ability to track and explain the measured NEE data of each site. The seasonal parameter values reduced with more than 50% (averaged over all sites) the bias in the simulated NEE values. The most consistent performance of CLM during the evaluation period was found for the posterior parameter values of the forest PFTs, and contrary to the C3-grass and C3-crop sites, the latent variables of the initial pools further enhanced the quality-of-fit. The carbon sink function of the forest PFTs significantly increased with the posterior parameter estimates. We thus conclude that land surface model predictions of carbon stocks and fluxes require careful consideration of uncertain ecological parameters and initial states.

Land surface modelling runs with CLM5 over Africa at 3 km resolution were carried out and we assessed the impact of different sources of soil information and different upscaling strategies of the soil information, also in combination with different atmospheric forcings and different temporal resolutions of those atmospheric forcings. FAO and SoilGrids250m were used as soil information. SoilGrids information at 250 m resolution was upscaled to the 3 km grid scale by three different methods: (i) random selection of one of the small SoilGrids250m grid cells contained in the model grid cell; (ii) arithmetic averaging of SoilGrids soil texture values and (iii) selection of the dominant soil texture. These different soil model inputs were combined with different atmospheric forcings model inputs, which provide inputs at different temporal resolutions: CRUNCEPv7 (6-hourly input resolution), GSWPv3 (3-hourly) and WFDE5 (hourly). We found that varying the source of soil texture information (FAO or SoilGrids250m) influences model water balance outputs more than the upscaling methodology of the soil texture maps. However, for high temporal resolution of atmospheric forcings (WFDE5) the different soil texture upscaling methods result in large differences in simulated evapotranspiration, surface runoff and subsurface runoff at the local and regional scales related to the higher resolution representation of rainfall intensity in the model. The upscaling methodology of fine scale soil texture information influences land surface model simulation results, but only clearly in combination with high temporal resolution atmospheric forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This synthetic study explores the value of near‐surface soil moisture and soil temperature measurements for the estimation of soil moisture and soil temperature profiles, soil hydraulic and thermal parameters, and latent heat and sensible heat fluxes using data assimilation (ensemble Kalman filter) in combination with unsaturated zone flow modeling (HYDRUS‐1D), for 12 United States Department of Agriculture soil textures in a homogeneous and bare soil scenario. The soil moisture profile is estimated with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.04 cm3/cm3 for univariate soil temperature assimilation and 0.01 cm3/cm3 for univariate soil moisture assimilation. Soil temperature assimilation performs better for soils with higher clay content compared to soils with higher sand content. The latent and sensible heat fluxes are estimated with smaller RMSE for univariate soil temperature assimilation compared to univariate soil moisture assimilation for 8 out of 12 soil types. As the climate condition changes from hot semi‐arid to sub‐humid climate, the soil moisture assimilation performs better for high permeable soil but worse for low permeable soil. In summary, the findings suggest that for most soil texture classes, assimilating soil temperature in vadose zone models is skillful to improve latent heat flux, soil moisture profile, and soil hydraulic parameters. Joint assimilation with soil moisture can further enhance the accuracy of the model outputs for all range of soil texture and climate conditions. Core Ideas: Soil moisture can be estimated with good accuracy using soil temperature assimilation.Soil temperature data assimilation is superior for estimating soil hydraulic parameters in clayey soils.Heat flux is better estimated by soil temperature assimilation than soil moisture assimilation.Assimilating both soil moisture and soil temperature improved estimation of state, parameter and heat fluxes.Soil moisture assimilation performs better for high (low) permeable soil in humid (arid) climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate assessment of the physical states of the Earth system is an essential component of many scientific, societal and economical considerations. These assessments are becoming an increasingly challenging computational task since we aim to resolve models with high resolutions in space and time, to consider complex coupled partial differential equations, and to estimate uncertainties, which often requires many realizations. Machine learning methods are becoming a very popular method for the construction of surrogate models to address these computational issues. However, they also face major challenges in producing explainable, scalable, interpretable and robust models. In this manuscript, we evaluate the perspectives of geoscience applications of physics-based machine learning, which combines physics-based and data-driven methods to overcome the limitations of each approach taken alone. Through three designated examples (from the fields of geothermal energy, geodynamics, and hydrology), we show that the non-intrusive reduced basis method as a physics-based machine learning approach is able to produce highly precise surrogate models that are explainable, scalable, interpretable, and robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface models (LSM) are an important tool for advancing our knowledge of the Earth system. LSM are constantly improved to represent the various terrestrial processes in more detail. High quality data, freely available from various observation networks, are providing being used to improve the prediction of terrestrial states and fluxes of water and energy. To optimize LSM with observations, data assimilation methods and tools have been developed in the past decades. We apply the coupled Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) and Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) system (CLM5-PDAF) for thirteen forest field sites throughout Europe covering different climate zones. The goal of this study is to assimilate in-situ soil moisture measurements into CLM5 to improve the modeled evapotranspiration fluxes. The modeled fluxes will be evaluated using the predicted evapotranspiration fluxes with eddy covariance (EC) systems. Most of the sites use point scale measurements from, however for three of the forest sites we use soil water content data from cosmic-ray neutron sensors, which have a measurement scale closer to the typical land surface model grid scale and EC footprint. Our results show that while data assimilation reduced the root-mean-square error for soil water content on average by 56 to 64 %, the root-mean-square error for the evapotranspiration estimation is increased by 4 %. This finding indicates that state-of-the-art LSM such as CLM5 still suffer from uncertainties in the representation of soil hydrological processes in forests, e.g. deep root water uptake, or highly uncertain vegetation parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-range weather forecasts provide predictions of atmospheric, ocean and land surface conditions that can potentially be used in land surface and hydrological models to predict the water and energy status of the land surface or in crop growth models to predict yield for water resources or agricultural planning. However, the coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of available forecast products have hindered their widespread use in such modelling applications that usually require high resolution input data. In this study, we applied sub-seasonal (up to 4 months) and seasonal (7 months) weather forecasts from the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) in a land surface modelling approach using the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5). Simulations were conducted for 2017-2020 forced with subseasonal and seasonal weather forecasts over two different domains with contrasting climate and cropping conditions: the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia and the Australian state of Victoria. We found that, after pre-processing of the forecast products (temporal downscaling of precipitation and incoming shortwave radiation), the simulations forced with seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts were able to generate a model system response very close to reference simulation results forced by reanalysis data. Differences between seasonal and sub-seasonal experiments were insignificant. The forecast experiments were able to satisfactorily capture recorded inter-annual variations of crop yield. In addition, they also reproduced the generally higher inter-annual variability in crop yield across the Australian domain (approximately 50 % inter-annual variability in recorded yields and up to 17 % in simulated yields) compared to the German domain (approximately 15 % inter-annual variability in recorded yields and up to 5 % in simulated yields). The high and low yield seasons (2020 and 2018) among the four simulated years were clearly reproduced in forecast simulation results. Furthermore, sub-seasonal and seasonal simulations reflected the early harvest in the drought year of 2018 in the German domain. However, the simulated inter-annual yield variability was lower in all simulations compared to the official statistics. While general soil moisture trends, such as the European drought in 2018, were captured by the seasonal experiments, we found systematic over- and underestimations in both the forecast and the reference simulations compared to the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-3 soil moisture product (SMAP L3) and the Soil Moisture Climate Change Initiative Combined dataset from the European Space Agency's (ESA CCI). These observed biases of soil moisture as well as the low inter-annual variability of simulated crop yield indicate the need to improve the representation of these variables in CLM5 to increase the model sensitivity to drought stress and other crop stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate soil moisture (SM) monitoring is key in irrigation as it can greatly improve water use efficiency. Recently, Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensors (CRNS) have been recognized as a promising tool in SM monitoring due to their large footprint of several hectares. CRNS have great potential for irrigation applications, but few studies have investigated whether irrigation monitoring with CRNS is feasible, especially for irrigated fields with a size smaller than the CRNS footprint. Therefore, the aim of this work is to use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the feasibility of monitoring irrigation with CRNS. This was achieved by simulating irrigation scenarios with different field dimensions (from 0.5 ha to 8 ha) and SM variations between 0.05 and 0.50 cm³ cm-3. Moreover, the energy dependent response functions of eight moderators with different high-density polyethylene (HDPE) thickness or additional gadolinium thermal shielding were investigated. It was found that a considerable part of the neutrons that contribute to the CRNS footprint can originate outside an irrigated field, which is a challenge for irrigation monitoring with CRNS. The use of thin HDPE moderators (e.g., 5 mm) generally resulted in a smaller footprint and thus stronger contributions from the irrigated area. However, a thicker 25 mm HDPE moderator with gadolinium shielding improved SM monitoring in irrigated fields due to a higher sensitivity of neutron counts with changing SM. Such moderator and shielding provided high chances of detecting irrigation events, especially when the initial SM was relatively low. However, it was found that variations in SM outside a small, irrigated field (i.e., 0.5 and 1 ha) can affect the count rate more than SM variations due to irrigation. This suggests the importance of retrieving SM data from the surrounding of a target field to obtain more meaningful information for supporting irrigation management, especially for small irrigated fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inclusion of perennial, woody crops in land surface models is crucial to address their role in carbon (C) sequestration, food production, and water requirements under climate change. To help quantifying the biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes associated with these agro-ecosystems, we developed and tested a new sub-model, CLM-FruitTree, for deciduous fruit orchards within the framework of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). The model development included (1) a new perennial crop phenology description, (2) an adapted C and nitrogen allocation scheme, considering both storage and photosynthetic growth of annual and perennial plant organs, (3) typical management practices associated with fruit orchards, and (4) the parameterization of an apple plant functional type. CLM-FruitTree was tested using extensive field measurements from an apple orchard in South Tyrol, Italy. Growth and partitioning of biomass to the individual plant components was well represented by CLM-FruitTree and average yield was predicted within 2.3 % of the observed values despite low simulated inter-annual variability compared to observations. The simulated seasonal course of C, energy, and water fluxes was in good agreement with the EC measurements owing to the accurate representation of the prolonged growing season and typical leaf area development of the orchard. We found that gross primary production, net radiation, and latent heat flux were highly correlated (r > 0.94) with EC measurements and showed little bias (< ±5 %). Simulated respiration components, sensible heat, and ground heat flux were less consistent with observations. This was attributed to simplifications in the orchard structure and to the presence of additional management practices that are not yet represented in CLM-FruitTree. Finally, the results suggested that the representation of microbial and autotrophic respiration, and energy partitioning in complex, heterogeneous canopies in CLM5 requires further attention. The new sub-model CLM-FruitTree improved the representation of agricultural systems in CLM5 and can be used to study land surface processes in fruit orchards at the local, regional or larger scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts can have important impacts on environment and economy like in the year 2018 in parts of Europe. Droughts can be analyzed in terms of meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought and social-economic drought. In this paper, we focus on meteorological and agricultural drought and analyzed drought trends for the period 1965-2019 and assessed how extreme the drought year 2018 was in Germany and the Netherlands. The analysis was made on the basis of the following drought indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized soil moisture index (SSI), potential precipitation deficit (PPD) and ET deficit. SPI and SSI were computed at two time scales, the period April-September and a 12-months period. In order to analyze drought trends and the ranking of the year 2018, HYDRUS 1-D simulations were carried out for 31 sites with long-term meteorological observations and soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration (ET) and actual ET were determined for five soil types (clay, silt, loam, sandy loam and loamy sand). The results show that the year 2018 was severely dry, which was especially related to the highest potential ET in the time series 1965-2019, for most of the sites. For around half of the 31 sites the year 2018 had the lowest SSI, and largest PPD and ET-deficit in the 1965-2019 time series, followed by 1976 and 2003. The trend analysis reveals that meteorological drought (SPI) hardly shows significant trends over 1965-2019 over the studied domain, but agricultural droughts (SSI) are increasing, at several sites significantly, and at even more sites PPD and ET deficit show significant trends. The increasing droughts over Germany and Netherlands are mainly driven by increasing potential ET and increasing vegetation water demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled numerical models, which simulate water and energy fluxes in the subsurface-land surface-atmosphere system in a physically consistent way are a prerequisite for the analysis and a better understanding of heat and matter exchange fluxes at compartmental boundaries and interdependencies of states across these boundaries. Complete state evolutions generated by such models may be regarded as a proxy of the real world, provided they are run at sufficiently high resolution and incorporate the most important processes. Such a virtual reality can be used to test hypotheses on the functioning of the coupled terrestrial system. Coupled simulation systems, however, face severe problems caused by the vastly different scales of the processes acting in and between the compartments of the terrestrial system, which also hinders comprehensive tests of their realism. We used the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform TerrSysMP, which couples the meteorological model COSMO, the land-surface model CLM, and the subsurface model ParFlow, to generate a virtual catchment for a regional terrestrial system mimicking the Neckar catchment in southwest Germany. Simulations for this catchment are made for the period 2007-2015, and at a spatial resolution of 400 m for the land surface and subsurface and 1.1 km for the atmosphere. Among a discussion of modelling challenges, the model performance is evaluated based on real observations covering several variables of the water cycle. We find that the simulated (virtual) catchment behaves in many aspects quite close to observations of the real Neckar catchment, e.g. concerning atmospheric boundary-layer height, precipitation, and runoff. But also discrepancies become apparent, both in the ability of the model to correctly simulate some processes which still need improvement such as overland flow, and in the realism of some observation operators like the satellite based soil moisture sensors. The whole raw dataset is available for interested users. The dataset described here is available via the CERA database (Schalge et al., 2020): https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/Neckar%5FVCS%5Fv1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the evaluation of different methods for gap filling of long-term actual evapotranspiration time series measured by lysimeters. It explore four different gap filling methods namely potential terrestrial evapotranspiration method, the ratio method, and the FAO-based water balance method, and HYDRUS modeling. It also mentions that gap-filling methods do not perform very differently for dry and wet conditions.

Accurate and reliable hydrologic simulations are important for many applications such as water resources management, future water availability projections and predictions of extreme events. However, the accuracy of water balance estimates is limited by the lack of observations at large scales and the uncertainties of model simulations due to errors in model structure and inputs (e.g. hydrologic parameters and atmospheric forcings). In this study, we assimilated ESA CCI soil moisture (SM) information to improve the estimation of continental-scale soil moisture and runoff. The assimilation experiment was conducted over a time period from 2000 to 2006 with the Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5) integrated with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) at spatial resolution of 0.0275° (∼ 3 km) over Europe. The model was forced with the high-resolution reanalysis COSMO-REA6 from the Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ). Our results show that estimates of soil moisture have improved, particularly in the summer and autumn seasons when cross-validated with independent CCI-SM observations. On average, the mean bias in soil moisture was reduced from 0.1 mm3/mm3 in open-loop simulations to 0.004 mm3/mm3 with SM assimilation. The assimilation experiment also shows overall improvements in runoff, particularly during peak runoff. The results demonstrate the potential of assimilating satellite soil moisture observations to improve high-resolution soil moisture and runoff simulations at the continental scale, which is useful for water resources assessment and monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In situ soil moisture sensors provide highly accurate but very local soil moisture measurements, while remotely sensed soil moisture is strongly affected by vegetation and surface roughness. In contrast, cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNSs) allow highly accurate soil moisture estimation on the field scale which could be valuable to improve land surface model predictions. In this study, the potential of a network of CRNSs installed in the 2354 km² Rur catchment (Germany) for estimating soil hydraulic parameters and improving soil moisture states was tested. Data measured by the CRNSs were assimilated with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter in the Community Land Model version 4.5. Data of four, eight and nine CRNSs were assimilated for the years 2011 and 2012 (with and without soil hydraulic parameter estimation), followed by a verification year 2013 without data assimilation. This was done using (i) a regional high-resolution soil map, (ii) the FAO soil map and (iii) an erroneous, biased soil map as input information for the simulations. For the regional soil map, soil moisture characterization was only improved in the assimilation period but not in the verification period. For the FAO soil map and the biased soil map, soil moisture predictions improved strongly to a root mean square error of 0.03 cm³ cm-3 for the assimilation period and 0.05 cm³ cm-3 for the evaluation period. Improvements were limited by the measurement error of CRNSs (0.03 cm³ cm-3). The positive results obtained with data assimilation of nine CRNSs were confirmed by the jackknife experiments with four and eight CRNSs used for assimilation. The results demonstrate that assimilated data of a CRNS network can improve the characterization of soil moisture content on the catchment scale by updating spatially distributed soil hydraulic parameters of a land surface model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]