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In this review and synthesis, we argue that California is an important test case for the nation and world because terrestrial biodiversity is very high, present and anticipated threats to biodiversity from climate change and other interacting stressors are severe, and innovative approaches to protecting biodiversity in the context of climate change are being developed and tested. We first review salient dimensions of Californias terrestrial physical, biological, and human diversity. Next, we examine four facets of the threat to their sustainability of these dimensions posed by climate change: direct impacts, illustrated by a new analysis of shifting diversity hotspots for plants; interactive effects involving invasive species, land-use change, and other stressors; the impacts of changing fire regimes; and the impacts of land-based renewable energy development. We examine recent policy responses in each of these areas, representing attempts to better protect biodiversity while advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. We conclude that Californias ambitious 30 × 30 Initiative and its efforts to harmonize biodiversity conservation with renewable energy development are important areas of progress. Adapting traditional suppression-oriented fire policies to the reality of new fire regimes is an area in which much progress remains to be made.

An increasing amount of Californias landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.

We assessed the relative abundance of winter resident birds (species that breed in North America but spend the winter in The Bahamas) through 115 point counts conducted during December and January 2007–2012 on Abaco, The Bahamas. We also analyzed structure and composition of the woody vegetation in Abaco’s two widespread terrestrial habitats: Pineland, an open woodland of Pinus caribaea var. bahamensis (Bahamas Pine) that covers most of the island; and Coppice, a broadleaf, relatively diverse forest that covers

Abstract: Many studies of community assembly focus on a single ontogenetic stage (typically adults) when trying to infer assembly processes from patterns of biodiversity. This focus ignores the finding that assembly mechanisms may strongly differ between life‐stages, and the role of ontogenetic dependency: the mechanisms by which one life stage directly affects the composition of another life stage. Within a 4‐ha forest dynamics plot in California USA, we explored how the relative importance of multiple assembly processes shifts across life stages and assessed ontogenetic dependency of seedlings on adults in woody plant communities. To assess variation in assembly processes across life stages, we examined how β‐diversity of adult and seedling communities were each influenced by space and 13 environmental variables (soils, topography) using distance‐based redundancy analysis and variation partitioning. We then assessed the ontogenetic dependency of seedlings on adults by including adult composition as a predictor in the seedling community variation partitioning. We found differences between adult and seedling composition. For the adults, we found 18 species including pines, oaks and manzanitas characteristic of this mid‐elevation forest. For seedlings, we found 11 species, and that oaks made up 75% of all seedlings while only making up 45% of all adults. Adult β‐diversity was primarily explained by space (44.0%) with environment only explaining 18.6% and 37.4% unexplained. In contrast, most of the explained variation in seedling β‐diversity was due to ontogenetic dependency alone (13.6% explained by adult composition) with 1.6% explained by space and the environment jointly, and 62.8% unexplained. Synthesis: Here, we describe a conceptual framework for integrating ontogeny more explicitly into community assembly research and demonstrate how different assembly processes structured adult and seedling β‐diversity in a temperate dry forest. While adult β‐diversity was largely driven by spatial processes, seedling β‐diversity was largely unexplained, with ontogenetic dependency comprising most of the explained variation. These patterns suggest that future assembly research should consider how assembly processes and their underlying mechanisms may shift with ontogeny, and that interactions between ontogenetic stages (ontogenetic dependency) are critical to consider when assessing variation in assembly processes.

Wildland–urban interfaces (WUIs), the juxtaposition of highly and minimally developed lands, are an increasingly prominent feature on Earth. WUIs are hotspots of environmental and ecological change that are often priority areas for planning and management. A better understanding of WUI dynamics and their role in the coupling between cities and surrounding wildlands is needed to reduce the risk of environmental hazards, ensure the continued provisioning of ecosystem services, and conserve threatened biodiversity. To fill this need, we propose an expanded framework for WUIs that not only conceptualizes these interfaces as emergent and functional components of socioecological processes but also extends them vertically from the bedrock to the top of the vegetation and horizontally across heterogeneous landscapes. This framework encourages management that reconciles pervasive trade-offs between development and resulting multiple environmental impacts. Focusing on southern California as a case study, we use the framework to facilitate integration across disciplines and between scientists and managers.

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of 'living in harmony with nature'1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth's ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surrounding the theory, protocols, and tools for Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Such analyses have grown steadily over the past two decades—including a maturation of relevant theory and key concepts—but methodological consensus has yet to be reached. In response, and following an online course taught in Spanish in 2018, we designed a comprehensive English-language course covering much of the underlying theory and methods currently applied in this broad field. Here, we summarize that course, ENM2020, and provide links by which resources produced for it can be accessed into the future. ENM2020 lasted 43 weeks, with presentations from 52 instructors, who engaged with >2500 participants globally through >14,000 hours of viewing and >90,000 views of instructional video and question-and-answer sessions. Each major topic was introduced by an “Overview” talk, followed by more detailed lectures on subtopics. The hierarchical and modular format of the course permits updates, corrections, or alternative viewpoints, and generally facilitates revision and reuse, including the use of only the Overview lectures for introductory courses. All course materials are free and openly accessible (CC-BY license) to ensure these resources remain available to all interested in distributional ecology.

We assessed the relative abundance of winter resident birds (species that breed in North America but spend the winter in The Bahamas) through 115 point counts conducted during December and January 2007–2012 on Abaco, The Bahamas. We also analyzed structure and composition of the woody vegetation in Abaco’s two widespread terrestrial habitats: Pineland, an open woodland of Pinus caribaea var. bahamensis (Bahamas Pine) that covers most of the island; and Coppice, a broadleaf, relatively diverse forest that covers

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth's surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth's albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth's climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth's surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

We review the roles that plant species traits and biogeography play in species’ exposure and vulnerability to decline or extinction under global change, focusing on separate and combined impacts of multiple threats – climate change, land-use change, and altered disturbance regimes. We establish a conceptual framework and research agenda for identifying the spatial characteristics of species ranges, as well as the life history and functional traits, that are associated with extinction risk for plant species with functional attributes emblematic of fire-prone, winter-precipitation Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs). MTEs worldwide are characterized by their high plant diversity and unique floras, historical and contemporary high rates of land use change, and strong interactions between climate, fire, and land use. We focus on the California Floristic Province (CFP), an MTE that is a global plant diversity hotspot, and show how our framework can be used to understand the relationships between vulnerability to multiple global change drivers, species traits, and biogeography. Vulnerability can be assessed across species using linked distribution and population models that forecast plant responses to global change scenarios. Our overarching hypothesis is that species-specific vulnerability to global change in MTEs is a function of interactions between species and spatial traits: the nature of this interaction will depend on the type of global change process.

There is a debate concerning the definition and extent of tropical dry forest biome and vegetation type at a global spatial scale. We identify the potential extent of the tropical dry forest biome based on bioclimatic definitions and climatic data sets to improve global estimates of distribution, cover, and change. We compared four bioclimatic definitions of the tropical dry forest biome-Murphy and Lugo, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), DryFlor, aridity index-using two climatic data sets: WorldClim and Climatologies at High-resolution for the Earth's Land Surface Areas (CHELSA). We then compared each of the eight unique combinations of bioclimatic definitions and climatic data sets using 540 field plots identified as tropical dry forest from a literature search and evaluated the accuracy of World Wildlife Fund tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forest ecoregions. We used the definition and climate data that most closely matched field data to calculate forest cover in 2000 and change from 2001 to 2020. Globally, there was low agreement (< 58%) between bioclimatic definitions and WWF ecoregions and only 40% of field plots fell within these ecoregions. FAO using CHELSA had the highest agreement with field plots (81%) and was not correlated with the biome extent. Using the FAO definition with CHELSA climatic data set, we estimate 4,931,414 km2 of closed canopy (≥ 40% forest cover) tropical dry forest in 2000 and 4,369,695 km2 in 2020 with a gross loss of 561,719 km2 (11.4%) from 2001 to 2020. Tropical dry forest biome extent varies significantly based on bioclimatic definition used, with nearly half of all tropical dry forest vegetation missed when using ecoregion boundaries alone, especially in Africa. Using site-specific field validation, we find that the FAO definition using CHELSA provides an accurate, standard, and repeatable way to assess tropical dry forest cover and change at a global scale.

We report microplastic densities on windward beaches of Oahu, Hawai`i, USA, an island that received about 6 million tourist visits a year. Microplastic densities, surveyed on six Oahu beaches, were highest on the beaches with the coarsest sands, associated with high wave energy. On those beaches, densities were very high (700-1700 particles m-2), as high as those recorded on other remote island beaches worldwide. Densities were higher at storm tide lines than high tide lines. Results from our study provide empirical data on the distribution of microplastics on the most populated and visited of the Hawaiian islands.

Comparing distributional information derived from fossils with the modern distribution of species, we summarize the changing bird communities of the Bahamian Archipelago across deep ecological time. While our entire dataset consists of 7,600+ identified fossils from 32 sites on 15 islands (recording 137 species of resident and migratory birds), we focus on the landbirds from four islands with the best fossil records, three from the Late Pleistocene (∼25 to 10 ka [1,000 y ago]) and one from the Holocene (∼10 to 0 ka). The Late Pleistocene sites feature 51 resident species that have lost one or more Bahamian populations; 29 of these species do not occur in any of the younger Holocene sites (or in the Bahamas today). Of these 29 species, 17 have their closest affinities to species now or formerly living in Cuba and/or North America. A set of 27 species of landbirds, most of them extant somewhere today, was more widespread in the Bahamas in the prehistoric Holocene (∼10 to 0.5 ka) than they are today; 16 of these 27 species were recorded as Pleistocene fossils as well. No single site adequately captures the entire landbird fauna of the combined focal islands. Information from all sites is required to assess changes in Bahamian biodiversity (including endemism) since the Late Pleistocene. The Bahamian islands are smaller, flatter, lower, and more biotically depauperate than the Greater Antilles, resulting in more vulnerable bird communities.

Aim: Palms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change. Location: Tropical and subtropical moist forests. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Palms (Arecaceae). Methods: We assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co-occurring non-palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure. Results: On average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long-term climate stability. Life-form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non-tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above-ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work. Conclusions: Tree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests.

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Studies of the factors governing global patterns of biodiversity are key to predicting community responses to ongoing and future abiotic and biotic changes. Although most research has focused on present-day climate, a growing body of evidence indicates that modern ecological communities may be significantly shaped by paleoclimatic change and past anthropogenic factors. However, the generality of this pattern is unknown, as global analyses are lacking. Here we quantify the phylogenetic and functional trait structure of 515 tropical and subtropical large mammal communities and predict their structure from past and present climatic and anthropogenic factors. We find that the effects of Quaternary paleoclimatic change are strongest in the Afrotropics, with communities in the Indomalayan realm showing mixed effects of modern climate and paleoclimate. Malagasy communities are poorly predicted by any single factor, likely due to the atypical history of the island compared with continental regions. Neotropical communities are mainly codetermined by modern climate and prehistoric and historical human impacts. Overall, our results indicate that the factors governing tropical and subtropical mammalian biodiversity are complex, with the importance of past and present factors varying based on the divergent histories of the worlds biogeographic realms and their native biotas. Consideration of the evolutionary and ecological legacies of both the recent and ancient past are key to understanding the forces shaping global patterns of present-day biodiversity and its response to ongoing and future abiotic and biotic changes in the 21st century.

In mountain landscapes, surface temperatures vary over short distances due to interacting influences of topography and overstory vegetation on local energy and water balances. At two study landscapes in the Sierra Nevada of California, characterized by foothill oak savanna at 276–481 m elevation and montane conifer forest at 1977–2135 m, we deployed 288 near-surface (5 cm above the surface) temperature sensors to sample site-scale (30 m) temperature variation related to hillslope orientation and vegetation structure and microsite-scale (2–10 m) variation related to microtopography and tree overstory. Daily near-surface maximum and minimum temperatures for the 2013 calendar year were related to topographic factors and vegetation overstory characterized using small footprint LiDAR imagery acquired by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP). At both landscapes we recorded large site and microsite spatial variation in daily maximum temperatures, and less absolute variation in daily minimum temperatures. Generalized boosted regression trees were estimated to measure the influence of tree canopy density, understory solar radiation, cold-air drainage and pooling, ground cover and microtopography on daily maximum and minimum temperatures at site and microsite scales. Site-scale models based on indices of understory solar radiation and landscape position explained an average of 61–65% of daily variation in maximum temperature; site-scale models based on tree canopy density and landscape position explained 65–83% of variation in minimum temperatures. Models explained

In this study, we automate tree species classification and mapping using field-based training data, high spatial resolution airborne hyperspectral imagery, and a convolutional neural network classifier (CNN). We tested our methods by identifying seven dominant trees species as well as dead standing trees in a mixed-conifer forest in the Southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, CA (USA) using training, validation, and testing datasets composed of spatially-explicit transects and plots sampled across a single strip of imaging spectroscopy. We also used a three-band 'Red-Green-Blue' pseudo true-color subset of the hyperspectral imagery strip to test the classification accuracy of a CNN model without the additional non-visible spectral data provided in the hyperspectral imagery. Our classifier is pixel-based rather than object based, although we use three-dimensional structural information from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to identify trees (points > 5 m above the ground) and the classifier was applied to image pixels that were thus identified as tree crowns. By training a CNN classifier using field data and hyperspectral imagery, we were able to accurately identify tree species and predict their distribution, as well as the distribution of tree mortality, across the landscape. Using a window size of 15 pixels and eight hidden convolutional layers, a CNN model classified the correct species of 713 individual trees from hyperspectral imagery with an average F-score of 0.87 and F-scores ranging from 0.67-0.95 depending on species. The CNN classification model performance increased from a combined F-score of 0.64 for the Red-Green-Blue model to a combined F-score of 0.87 for the hyperspectral model. The hyperspectral CNN model captures the species composition changes across ~700 meters (1935 to 2630 m) of elevation from a lower-elevation mixed oak conifer forest to a higher-elevation fir-dominated coniferous forest. High resolution tree species maps can support forest ecosystem monitoring and management, and identifying dead trees aids landscape assessment of forest mortality resulting from drought, insects and pathogens. We publicly provide our code to apply deep learning classifiers to tree species identification from geospatial imagery and field training data.

Summary Primary care is central to ongoing health care following bariatric surgery and patients indicate a preference for receiving follow‐up support by their primary care practitioner (PCP). This meta‐synthesis investigates the perspectives of both PCPs and patients in post‐bariatric surgery care provided by PCPs. The aim was to synthesize themes from qualitative research to recommend improvements in post‐bariatric surgery clinical care in primary care settings. Systematic searches of Scopus, Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar resulted in the inclusion of eight papers in the meta‐synthesis. Papers were critiqued using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) and thematically coded in Quirkos Cloud. Seven themes were reached by author consensus including stigma and judgment; clinician barriers and facilitators; patient‐related support needs; communication considerations; patient context or determinants; health care setting; and adapting to life after surgery. PCPs reported barriers including poor communication and guidance from bariatric surgery centers, limited knowledge and training in bariatric patient care, and patients who may have unrealistic outcomes and poor health literacy. Patients seek comprehensive care from their PCP, however, barriers hindering the provision of this care include adverse surgical outcomes, a poor relationship with their PCP, and limited and short‐term follow‐up care from the PCP. Insights from this meta‐synthesis offer actionable recommendations for PCPs and bariatric surgery centers to enhance patient care immediately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To examine the climatic and biogeographic drivers of plant trait variation across Caribbean tropical dry forests, a system characterised by high rates of plant endemism despite low moisture availability, high rainfall variability and persistent exposure to hurricanes. Location: Caribbean tropical dry forests. Taxon: Woody plants. Methods: We used a database of 572 woody vegetation plots spanning across the Caribbean, including Florida. We then extracted seed mass, specific leaf area and wood density from global trait databases. We supplemented additional trait data from herbaria collections and calculated phylogenetic imputation of traits. Furthermore, we calculated presence–absence community means and functional diversity and correlated these metrics with bioclimatic variables in addition to island and dry forest area using generalised additive models. Results: Despite occurring in climatically distinct regions, Caribbean tropical dry forests are functionally similar, and the trait space of many dry forests are nested within the functional space of others. In line with island biogeographic theory, island area, dry forest area and island isolation were correlated with functional diversity. Although temperature and precipitation were important determinants of trait variation and functional diversity, environmental variables differently impacted trait variation and the variance explained was generally low. Main Conclusions: The high functional overlap among Caribbean dry forests is remarkable given the broad climatic gradient across these islands. High functional overlap suggests that environmental and biogeographic filters constrain plant form and function in these intrinsically fascinating systems. The trait space of these insular dry forest systems points to dispersal‐limitation, in addition to high temperature and water limitations, and favouring persistence strategies to withstand high frequency hurricane disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an overview of the challenges and solutions related to climate change and sustainability in California. It highlights the impacts of climate change that the state is already experiencing, such as increasing temperatures, sea level rise, and more frequent heatwaves. The article emphasizes the need for global emissions reduction and discusses the legislation and policies enacted by the state government to address climate change, with a focus on environmental justice. It also emphasizes the importance of understanding regional impacts and finding adaptable solutions. The document further discusses the importance of climate adaptation, particularly for marginalized communities, and highlights the role of Indigenous knowledge and stewardship in building climate resilience. It addresses the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, wildfires, agriculture, urban systems, and human health. The authors argue for inclusive and equitable policies and collaborations to tackle climate change and promote sustainability in California. The document includes references to various scientific studies and reports related to climate change and its impacts on the state. [Extracted from the article]

We report a mid- to late-Holocene, non-cultural vertebrate assemblage from Garden Cave (site EL-229), Eleuthera Island, The Bahamas, with 2450 fossils representing 26 species. The chronology is based on accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) radiocarbon (14C) dates determined directly on individual bones of the hutia ( Geocapromys ingrahami), an extirpated species of rodent that dominates the bone assemblage at Garden Cave. Four AMS 14C dates from our excavation range from 1340 to 1280 cal. BP (surface of the site) to 4860 to 4830 cal. BP with depth. A hutia bone lying on the surface from elsewhere in the cave dated to 450 to 290 cal. BP, which is roughly the time of European and African contact on Eleuthera. Other extirpated species from Garden Cave are tortoise ( Chelonoidis sp.), rock iguana ( Cyclura sp.), skink ( Mabuya sp.), parrot ( Amazona leucocephala), crow ( Corvus nasicus), and southeastern myotis ( Myotis austroriparius). Each of these species may have survived on Eleuthera until sometime after the initial human occupation of the island (~1000 cal. BP), although we have direct AMS 14C dates for only the hutia. During the time of fossil deposition in Garden Cave, sea levels were approaching that of today, yet land areas were considerably larger than now, connecting Eleuthera to New Providence, and potentially to Exuma as well. Such relatively recent connections are important in explaining past and present distributions of terrestrial plants and animals.

AIM: Seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) of the Caribbean Islands (primarily West Indies) is floristically distinct from Neotropical SDTF in Central and South America. We evaluate whether tree species composition was associated with climatic gradients or geographical distance. Turnover (dissimilarity) in species composition of different islands or among more distant sites would suggest communities structured by speciation and dispersal limitations. A nested pattern would be consistent with a steep resource gradient. Correlation of species composition with climatic variation would suggest communities structured by broad‐scale environmental filtering. LOCATION: The West Indies (The Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Lucia), Providencia (Colombia), south Florida (USA) and Florida Keys (USA). TAXON: Seed plants—woody taxa (primarily trees). METHODS: We compiled 572 plots from 23 surveys conducted between 1969 and 2016. Hierarchical clustering of species in plots, and indicator species analysis for the resulting groups of sites, identified geographical patterns of turnover in species composition. Nonparametric analysis of variance, applied to principal components of bioclimatic variables, determined the degree of covariation in climate with location. Nestedness versus turnover in species composition was evaluated using beta diversity partitioning. Generalized dissimilarity modelling partitioned the effect of climate versus geographical distance on species composition. RESULTS: Despite a set of commonly occurring species, SDTF tree community composition was distinct among islands and was characterized by spatial turnover on climatic gradients that covaried with geographical gradients. Greater Antillean islands were characterized by endemic indicator species. Northern subtropical areas supported distinct, rather than nested, SDTF communities in spite of low levels of endemism. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The SDTF species composition was correlated with climatic variation. SDTF on large Greater Antillean islands (Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba) was characterized by endemic species, consistent with their geological history and the biogeography of plant lineages. These results suggest that both environmental filtering and speciation shape Caribbean SDTF tree communities.

Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world's tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world's tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests.

Scientific publishing has seen many changes in its ~350 years of existence. Nonetheless, the changes currently underway may be among the most radical. The five major biogeography journals (Diversity and Distributions, Ecography, Frontiers of Biogeography, Global Ecology and Biogeography, and Journal of Biogeography) are indicative of the major undercurrents in publishing today: two are society owned, three are owned by a private publisher; two are open access, three are reader-pays; four are published by a for‐profit publisher, one is not; three are double-blind review, two are the traditional single blind. Despite these differences, we serve as editors-in-chief for these journals for one common reason: to make sure there is a healthy publishing ecosystem available to communicate biogeographical research. With that goal in mind, here, we provide a brief potted history of scientific publishing to contextualize the modern publishing environment. We consider what current trends may mean for the future of scientific publishing. And we highlight a suite of factors that we recommend be considered when choosing a venue in which to publish your research. We particularly wish to emphasize one point: while editors-in-chief may guide journals, and editors and reviewers shape the science that is published, all journals depend ultimately on the manuscripts that authors choose to submit. For this reason, authors have great power over the future of the publishing landscape. To ensure a healthy landscape, we feel it is critical that all authors—but especially we senior and mid-career authors—are educated about today’s complex world of publication and make informed choices about where to submit, which signals to publishers the criteria that our community values. Authors’ choices now have potential to shape a sustainable publishing environment that better serves current and future generations of biogeographers.

In many parts of the world, the combined effects of habitat fragmentation and altered disturbance regimes pose a significant threat to biodiversity. This is particularly true in Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), which tend to be fire-prone, species rich, and heavily impacted by human land use. Given the spatial complexity of overlapping threats and species' vulnerability along with limited conservation budgets, methods are needed for prioritizing areas for monitoring and management in these regions. We developed a multi-criteria Pareto ranking methodology for prioritizing spatial units for conservation and applied it to fire threat, habitat fragmentation threat, species richness, and genetic biodiversity criteria in San Diego County, California, USA. We summarized the criteria and Pareto ranking results (from west to east) within the maritime, coastal, transitional, inland climate zones within San Diego County. Fire threat increased from the maritime zone eastward to the transitional zone, then decreased in the mountainous inland climate zone. Number of fires and fire return interval departure were strongly negatively correlated. Fragmentation threats, particularly road density and development density, were highest in the maritime climate zone, declined towards the east, and were positively correlated. Species richness criteria showed distributions among climate zones similar to those of the fire threat variables. When using species richness and fire threat criteria, most lower-ranked (higher conservation priority) units occurred in the coastal and transitional zones. When considering genetic biodiversity, lower-ranked units occurred more often in the mountainous inland zone. With Pareto ranking, there is no need to select criteria weights as part of the decision-making process. However, negative correlations and larger numbers of criteria can result in more units assigned to the same rank. Pareto ranking is broadly applicable and can be used as a standalone decision analysis method or in conjunction with other methods.