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In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to operational forecasting has yet to be adequately explored and documented. To assess their utility for operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, the NHC verification procedure is used to evaluate seven-day track and intensity predictions for northern hemisphere TCs from May-November 2023. Four open-source AIWP models are considered (FourCastNetv1, FourCastNetv2-small, GraphCast-operational and Pangu-Weather). The AIWP track forecast errors and detection rates are comparable to those from the best-performing operational forecast models. However, the AIWP intensity forecast errors are larger than those of even the simplest intensity forecasts based on climatology and persistence. The AIWP models almost always reduce the TC intensity, especially within the first 24 h of the forecast, resulting in a substantial low bias. The contribution of the AIWP models to the NHC model consensus was also evaluated. The consensus track errors are reduced by up to 11% at the longer time periods. The five-day NHC official track forecasts have improved by about 2% per year since 2001, so this represents more than a five-year gain in accuracy. Despite substantial negative intensity biases, the AIWP models have a neutral impact on the intensity consensus. These results show that the current formulation of the AIWP models have promise for operational TC track forecasts, but improved bias corrections or model reformulations will be needed for accurate intensity forecasts., Comment: 33 pages. 9 figures, 3 tables

While the consequences of mathematically-based software, algorithms and strategies have become ever wider and better appreciated, ethical reflection on mathematics has remained primitive. We review the somewhat disconnected suggestions of commentators in recent decades with a view to piecing together a coherent approach to ethics in mathematics. Calls for a Hippocratic Oath for mathematicians are examined and it is concluded that while lessons can be learned from the medical profession, the relation of mathematicians to those affected by their work is significantly different. There is something to be learned also from the codes of conduct of cognate but professionalised quantitative disciplines such as engineering and accountancy, as well as from legal principles bearing on professional work. We conclude with recommendations that professional societies in mathematics should sponsor an (international) code of ethics, institutional mission statements for mathematicians and syllabuses for incorporation into mathematics degrees., Comment: 20 pages. Submitted to Science and Engineering Ethics

Rectal tumour segmentation in dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) is a challenging task, and an automated and consistent method would be highly desirable to improve the modelling and prediction of patient outcomes from tissue contrast enhancement characteristics - particularly in routine clinical practice. A framework is developed to automate DCE-MRI tumour segmentation, by introducing: perfusion-supervoxels to over-segment and classify DCE-MRI volumes using the dynamic contrast enhancement characteristics; and the pieces-of-parts graphical model, which adds global (anatomic) constraints that further refine the supervoxel components that comprise the tumour. The framework was evaluated on 23 DCE-MRI scans of patients with rectal adenocarcinomas, and achieved a voxelwise area-under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.97 compared to expert delineations. Creating a binary tumour segmentation, 21 of the 23 cases were segmented correctly with a median Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) of 0.63, which is close to the inter-rater variability of this challenging task. A sec- ond study is also included to demonstrate the method's generalisability and achieved a DSC of 0.71. The framework achieves promising results for the underexplored area of rectal tumour segmentation in DCE-MRI, and the methods have potential to be applied to other DCE-MRI and supervoxel segmentation problems, Comment: accepted for publication in the Journal of Medical Image Analysis