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Background: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Objective: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Methods: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. Results: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. Conclusions: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

© 2022Background: Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who experience relapses on a first-line therapy (interferon, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide; collectively, “BRACETD”) often switch to another therapy, including natalizumab or fingolimod. Here we compare the effectiveness of switching from a first-line therapy to natalizumab or fingolimod after ≥1 relapse. Methods: Data collected prospectively in the MSBase Registry, a global, longitudinal, observational registry, were extracted on February 6, 2018. Included patients were adults with RRMS with ≥1 relapse on BRACETD therapy in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod. Included patients received natalizumab or fingolimod for ≥3 months after the switch. Results: Following 1:1 propensity score matching, 1000 natalizumab patients were matched to 1000 fingolimod patients. Mean (standard deviation) follow-up time was 3.02 (2.06) years after switching to natalizumab and 2.58 (1.64) years after switching to fingolimod. Natalizumab recipients had significantly lower annualized relapse rate (relative risk=0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59–0.74), lower risk of first relapse (hazard ratio [HR]=0.69; 95% CI, 0.60–0.80), and higher confirmed disability improvement (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.03–1.57) than fingolimod recipients. No difference in confirmed disability worsening was observed. Conclusions: Patients with RRMS switching from BRACETD demonstrated better outcomes with natalizumab than with fingolimod.

Background and purpose: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS).Methods: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow -up >= 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score >= 3, with >= 1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12 -month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics.Results: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45- 0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41- 0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09- 1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity.Conclusions: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age. This study was financially supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (1129189, 1140766, 1080518) We thank the patients and their carers who have agreed to participate in the global MSBase cohort study. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Roche, Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer-Schering, Sanofi-Genzyme, and Teva. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors. Open access publishing facilitated by The University of Melbourne, as part of the Wiley - The University of Melbourne agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.

BackgroundDisability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.MethodsData of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. TRIPOD guidelines were followed.Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expended disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course.To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated on their area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error.FindingsA temporal attention model was the best model. It achieved a ROC-AUC of 0·71 ± 0·01, an AUC-PR of 0·26 ± 0·02, a Brier score of 0·1 ± 0·01 and an expected calibration error of 0·07 ± 0·04. The history of disability progression is more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses.InterpretationGood discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This makes these models ready for a clinical impact study. All our preprocessing and model code is available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.

Background and purpose The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Methods In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Results The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusions Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual. NHMRC [1129189, 1157717, 1140766]; Merck; Biogen; Novartis; Roche; Bayer; Schering; Sanofi Genzyme; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

BackgroundOver the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time.MethodsAll patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3–4.ResultsA total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria.ConclusionsContrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Background: Treatment with natalizumab once every 4 weeks is approved for patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, but is associated with a risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. Switching to extended-interval dosing is associated with lower progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy risk, but the efficacy of this approach is unclear. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of natalizumab once every 6 weeks compared with once every 4 weeks in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Methods: We did a randomised, controlled, open-label, phase 3b trial (NOVA) at 89 multiple sclerosis centres across 11 countries in the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific. Included participants were aged 18–60 years with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and had been treated with intravenous natalizumab 300 mg once every 4 weeks with no relapses for at least 12 months before randomisation, with no missed doses in the previous 3 months. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1), using a randomisation sequence generated by the study funder and contract personnel with interactive response technology, to switch to natalizumab once every 6 weeks or continue with once every 4 weeks. The centralised MRI reader, independent neurology evaluation committee, site examining neurologists, site backup examining neurologists, and site examining technicians were masked to study group assignments. The primary endpoint was the number of new or newly enlarging T2 hyperintense lesions at week 72, assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of assigned treatment and had at least one postbaseline MRI, relapse, or neurological examination or efficacy assessment. Missing primary endpoint data were handled under prespecified primary and secondary estimands: the primary estimand included all data, regardless of whether participants remained on the assigned treatment; the secondary estimand classed all data obtained after treatment discontinuation or study withdrawal as missing. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of study treatment. Study enrolment is closed and an open-label extension study is ongoing. This study is registered with EudraCT, 2018-002145-11, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03689972. Findings: Between Dec 26, 2018, and Aug 30, 2019, 605 patients were assessed for eligibility and 499 were enrolled and assigned to receive natalizumab once every 6 weeks (n=251) or once every 4 weeks (n=248). After prespecified adjustments for missing data, mean numbers of new or newly enlarging T2 hyperintense lesions at week 72 were 0·20 (95% CI 0·07–0·63) in the once every 6 weeks group and 0·05 (0·01–0·22) in the once every 4 weeks group (mean lesion ratio 4·24 [95% CI 0·86–20·85]; p=0·076) under the primary estimand, and 0·31 (95% CI 0·12–0·82) and 0·06 (0·01–0·31; mean lesion ratio 4·93 [95% CI 1·05–23·20]; p=0·044) under the secondary estimand. Two participants in the once every 6 weeks group with extreme new or newly enlarging T2 hyperintense lesion numbers (≥25) contributed most of the excess lesions. Adverse events occurred in 194 (78%) of 250 participants in the once every 6 weeks group and 190 (77%) of 247 in the once every 4 weeks group, and serious adverse events occurred in 17 (7%) and 17 (7%), respectively. No deaths were reported. There was one case of asymptomatic progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (without clinical signs) in the once every 6 weeks group, and no cases in the once every 4 weeks group; 6 months after diagnosis, the participant was without increased disability and remained classified as asymptomatic. Interpretation: We found a numerical difference in the mean number of new or newly enlarging T2 hyperintense lesions at week 72 between the once every 6 weeks and once every 4 weeks groups, which reached significance under the secondary estimand, but interpretation of statistical differences (or absence thereof) is limited because disease activity in the once every 4 weeks group was lower than expected. The safety profiles of natalizumab once every 6 weeks and once every 4 weeks were similar. Although this trial was not powered to assess differences in risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, the occurrence of the (asymptomatic) case underscores the importance of monitoring and risk factor consideration in all patients receiving natalizumab. Funding: Biogen.

Objective To investigate pregnancy-related disease activity in a contemporary multiple sclerosis (MS) cohort. Methods Data were obtained from the MSBase Registry. Term/preterm pregnancies conceived from 2011-2019 were included (modern cohort). Annualised relapse rates (ARR) were calculated before, during and after pregnancy. Predictors of intrapartum and early postpartum (1st3 months) relapse were determined by clustered logistic and Cox regression analyses, respectively. Results We included 1640 pregnancies from 1452 women. Disease-modifying therapy (DMT) used in the one-year preconception included natalizumab (n=219), fingolimod (n=147), dimethyl fumarate (DMF; n=57) and low-efficacy therapies (n=845). Preconception ARR by DMT class used before conception were: natalizumab, 0.29 (95% CI 0.22-0.37); fingolimod, 0.37 (0.28-0.49); DMF, 0.24 (0.13-0.41); low-efficacy, 0.29 (0.25-0.33); and none, 0.24 (0.19-0.31). Among women who used fingolimod or natalizumab, ARR increased during pregnancy. Intrapartum ARR decreased in preconception DMF, low-efficacy or no DMT groups. ARR spiked after delivery across all DMT groups. Natalizumab continuation into pregnancy reduced the odds of relapse during pregnancy (OR 0.76 per month [0.60-0.95], p=0.017). DMT re-initiation with natalizumab protected against postpartum relapse (HR 0.11 [0.04-0.32], p Conclusion Women with MS prescribed natalizumab or fingolimod preconception had higher rates of intrapartum and postpartum relapse. In women considered to be at high relapse risk, use of natalizumab before pregnancy and continued up to 32-34 weeks gestation, with early re-initiation after delivery is an effective option to minimise relapse risks. Strategies of DMT use have to be balanced against potential foetal/neonatal complications.

ObjectiveTo compare the clinical effectiveness of high- and low-efficacy treatments in patients with recently active and inactive secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) after accounting for therapeutic lag.MethodsPatients treated with high-efficacy (natalizumab, alemtuzumab, mitoxantrone, ocrelizumab, rituximab, cladribine, fingolimod) or low-efficacy (interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, teriflunomide) therapies after SPMS onset were selected from MSBase and Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques (OFSEP), 2 large observational cohorts. Therapeutic lag was estimated for each patient from their demographic and clinical characteristics. Propensity score was used to match patients treated with high- and low-efficacy therapies. Outcomes after the period of therapeutic lag was disregarded were compared in paired, pairwise-censored analyses.ResultsOne thousand patients were included in the primary analysis. Patients with active SPMS treated with high-efficacy therapy experienced less frequent relapses than those on low-efficacy therapy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.7,p= 0.006). In patients with inactive SPMS, there was no evidence for a difference in relapse frequency between groups (HR 0.8,p= 0.39). No evidence for a difference in the risk of disability progression was observed.ConclusionIn treated patients with SPMS, high-efficacy therapy is superior to low-efficacy therapy in reducing relapses in patients with active but not those with inactive SPMS. However, more potent therapies do not offer an advantage in reducing disability progression in this patient group.Classification of EvidenceThis study provides Class III evidence that high-efficacy therapy is superior to low-efficacy therapy in reducing relapses in patients with active SPMS, although we did not find a difference in disability progression between patients treated with high- and low-efficacy therapy.

Summary Background Tolebrutinib is an oral, CNS-penetrant, irreversible inhibitor of Bruton’s tyrosine kinase, an enzyme expressed in B lymphocytes and myeloid cells including microglia, which are major drivers of inflammation in multiple sclerosis. We aimed to determine the dose-response relationship between tolebrutinib and the reduction in new active brain MRI lesions in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis. Methods We did a 16-week, phase 2b, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover, dose-finding trial at 40 centres (academic sites, specialty clinics, and general neurology centres) in ten countries in Europe and North America. Eligible participants were adults aged 18–55 years with diagnosed relapsing multiple sclerosis (either relapsing-remitting or relapsing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis), and one or more of the following criteria: at least one relapse within the previous year, at least two relapses within the previous 2 years, or at least one active gadolinium-enhancing brain lesion in the 6 months before screening. Exclusion criteria included a diagnosis of primary progressive multiple sclerosis or a diagnosis of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis without relapse. We used a two-step randomisation process to randomly assign eligible participants (1:1) to two cohorts, then further randomly assign participants in each cohort (1:1:1:1) to four tolebrutinib dose groups (5, 15, 30, and 60 mg administered once daily as an oral tablet). Cohort 1 received tolebrutinib for 12 weeks, then matched placebo (ie, identical looking tablets) for 4 weeks; cohort 2 received 4 weeks of placebo followed by 12 weeks of tolebrutinib. Participants and investigators were masked for dose and tolebrutinib-placebo administration sequence; investigators, study team members, and study participants did not have access to unmasked data. MRI scans were done at screening and every 4 weeks over 16 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was the number of new gadolinium-enhancing lesions detected on the scan done after 12 weeks of tolebrutinib treatment (assessed at week 12 for cohort 1 and week 16 for cohort 2), relative to the scan done 4 weeks previously, and compared with the lesions accumulated during 4 weeks of placebo run-in period in cohort 2. Efficacy data were analysed in a modified intention-to-treat population, using a two-step multiple comparison procedure with modelling analysis. Safety was assessed for all participants who received at least one dose of study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03889639), EudraCT (2018-003927-12), and WHO (U1111-1220-0572), and has been completed. Findings Between May 14, 2019, and Jan 2, 2020, we enrolled and randomly assigned 130 participants to tolebrutinib: 33 to 5 mg, 32 to 15 mg, 33 to 30 mg, and 32 to 60 mg. 129 (99%) completed the treatment regimen and 126 were included in the primary analysis. At treatment week 12, there was a dose-dependent reduction in the number of new gadolinium-enhancing lesions (mean [SD] lesions per patient: placebo, 1·03 [2·50]; 5 mg, 1·39 [3·20]; 15 mg, 0·77 [1·48]; 30 mg, 0·76 [3·31]; 60 mg, 0·13 [0·43]; p=0·03). One serious adverse event was reported (one patient in the 60 mg group was admitted to hospital because of a multiple sclerosis relapse). The most common non-serious adverse event during tolebrutinib treatment was headache (in one [3%] of 33 in the 5 mg group; three [9%] of 32 in the 15 mg group; one [3%] of 33 in the 30 mg group; and four [13%] of 32 in the 60 mg group). No safety-related discontinuations or treatment-related deaths occurred. Interpretation 12 weeks of tolebrutinib treatment led to a dose-dependent reduction in new gadolinium-enhancing lesions, the 60 mg dose being the most efficacious, and the drug was well tolerated. Reduction of acute inflammation, combined with the potential to modulate the immune response within the CNS, provides a scientific rationale to pursue phase 3 clinical trials of tolebrutinib in patients with relapsing and progressive forms of multiple sclerosis. Funding Sanofi.

International audience; Objective: To explore the associations of patient and disease characteristics with the duration of therapeutic lag for relapses and disability progression.Background: Therapeutic lag represents the delay from initiation of therapy to attainment of full treatment effect. Understanding the determinants of therapeutic lag provides valuable information for personalised choice of therapy in multiple sclerosis (MS).Design/Methods: Data from MSBase, a multinational MS registry, and OFSEP, the French national registry, were used. Patients diagnosed with MS, minimum 1-year exposure to MS treatment, minimum 3-year pre-treatment follow up and yearly review were included in the analysis. By studying incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed disability progression, the duration of therapeutic lag was calculated by identifying the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start in subgroups stratified by patient and disease characteristics. Pairwise analyses of univariate predictors were performed. Combinations of determinants that consistently drove differences in therapeutic lag in pair by pair analyses were included in the final model.Results: Baseline EDSS, ARR and sex were associated with duration of therapeutic lag on disability progression in univariate and pairwise bivariable analyses. In the final model, therapeutic lag was 27.8 weeks shorter in females with ARR6 compared to those with EDSS>=6 (26.6, 18.2–34.9 vs 54.3, 47.2–61.5). Baseline EDSS, ARR, sex and MS phenotype were associated with duration of therapeutic lag on relapses in univariate analyses. Pairwise bivariable analyses of the pairs of determinants suggested ependently associated with therapeutic lag. In the final model, therapeutic lag was shortest in those with RRMS and EDSS

Introduction: Natalizumab has proved to be more effective than fingolimod in reducing disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Whether this association is universal for all patient groups remains to be determined. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the relative effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in RRMS subgroups defined by the baseline demographic and clinical characteristics of interest. Methods: Patients with RRMS who were given natalizumab or fingolimod were identified in a merged cohort from three international registries. Efficacy outcomes were compared across subgroups based on patients’ sex, age, disease duration, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, and disease and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) activity 12 months prior to treatment initiation. Study endpoints were number of relapses (analyzed withweighted negative binomial generalized linear model) and 6-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement events (weighted Cox proportional hazards model), recorded during study therapy. Each patient was weighted using inverse probability of treatment weighting based on propensity score. Results: A total of 5148 patients (natalizumab 1989; fingolimod 3159) were included, with a mean ± standard deviation age at baseline of 38 ± 10 years, and the majority (72%) were women. The median on-treatment follow-up was 25 (quartiles 15–41) months. Natalizumab was associated with fewer relapses than fingolimod (incidence rate ratio [IRR]; 95% confidence interval [CI]) in women (0.76; 0.65–0.88); in those aged ≤38 years (0.64; 0.54–0.76); in those withdisease duration ≤7 years (0.63; 0.53–0.76); in those with EDSS score 38 years (1.34; 1.04–1.73); those with disease duration >7 years (1.33; 1.01–1.74); those with EDSS score

ObjectiveTo investigate pregnancy-related disease activity in a contemporary multiple sclerosis (MS) cohort.MethodsUsing data from the MSBase Registry, we included pregnancies conceived after December 31, 2010, in women with relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome. Predictors of intrapartum relapse and postpartum relapse and disability progression were determined by clustered logistic regression or Cox regression analyses.ResultsWe included 1,998 pregnancies from 1,619 women with MS. Preconception annualized relapse rate (ARR) was 0.29 (95% confidence interval 0.27–0.32), fell to 0.19 (0.14–0.24) in the third trimester, and increased to 0.59 (0.51–0.67) in early postpartum. Among women who used fingolimod or natalizumab, ARR before pregnancy was 0.37 (0.28–0.49) and 0.29 (0.22–0.37), respectively, and increased during pregnancy. Intrapartum ARR decreased with preconception dimethyl fumarate use. ARR spiked after delivery across all DMT groups. Natalizumab continuation into pregnancy reduced the odds of relapse during pregnancy (odds ratio 0.76 per month [0.60–0.95], p = 0.017). DMT reinitiation with natalizumab protected against postpartum relapse (hazard ratio [HR] 0.11 [0.04–0.32], p < 0.0001). Breastfeeding women were less likely to relapse (HR 0.61 [0.41–0.91], p = 0.016). We found that 5.6% of pregnancies were followed by confirmed disability progression, predicted by higher relapse activity in pregnancy and postpartum.ConclusionIntrapartum and postpartum relapse probabilities increased among women with MS after natalizumab or fingolimod cessation. In women considered to be at high relapse risk, use of natalizumab before pregnancy and continued up to 34 weeks gestation with early reinitiation after delivery is an effective option to minimize relapse risks. Strategies of disease-modifying therapy use have to be balanced against potential fetal/neonatal complications.

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-msj-10.1177_1352458520981300 for Determinants of therapeutic lag in multiple sclerosis by Izanne Roos, Emmanuelle Leray, Federico Frascoli, Romain Casey, J William L Brown, Dana Horakova, Eva Kubala Havrdova, Marc Debouverie, Maria Trojano, Francesco Patti, Guillermo Izquierdo, Sara Eichau, Gilles Edan, Alexandre Prat, Marc Girard, Pierre Duquette, Marco Onofrj, Alessandra Lugaresi, Pierre Grammond, Jonathan Ciron, Aurélie Ruet, Serkan Ozakbas, Jérôme De Seze, Céline Louapre, Hélène Zephir, Maria José Sá, Patrizia Sola, Diana Ferraro, Pierre Labauge, Gilles Defer, Roberto Bergamaschi, Christine Lebrun-Frenay, Cavit Boz, Elisabetta Cartechini, Thibault Moreau, David Laplaud, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Francois Grand’Maison, Oliver Gerlach, Murat Terzi, Franco Granella, Raed Alroughani, Gerardo Iuliano, Vincent Van Pesch, Bart Van Wijmeersch, Daniele LA Spitaleri, Aysun Soysal, Eric Berger, Julie Prevost, Eduardo Aguera-Morales, Pamela McCombe, Tamara Castillo Triviño, Pierre Clavelou, Jean Pelletier, Recai Turkoglu, Bruno Stankoff, Olivier Gout, Eric Thouvenot, Olivier Heinzlef, Youssef Sidhom, Riadh Gouider, Tunde Csepany, Bertrand Bourre, Abdullatif Al Khedr, Olivier Casez, Philippe Cabre, Alexis Montcuquet, Abir Wahab, Jean-Philippe Camdessanche, Aude Maurousset, Ivania Patry, Karolina Hankiewicz, Corinne Pottier, Nicolas Maubeuge, Céline Labeyrie, Chantal Nifle, Alasdair Coles, Charles B Malpas, Sandra Vukusic, Helmut Butzkueven and Tomas Kalincik in Multiple Sclerosis Journal

Background: High-efficacy therapies in multiple sclerosis are traditionally used after unsuccessful treatment with first-line disease modifying therapies. We hypothesised that early commencement of high-efficacy therapy would be associated with reduced long-term disability. We therefore aimed to compare long-term disability outcomes between patients who started high-efficacy therapies within 2 years of disease onset with those who started 4–6 years after disease onset. Methods: In this retrospective international observational study, we obtained data from the MSBase registry and the Swedish MS registry, which prospectively collect patient data that are specific to multiple sclerosis as part of routine clinical care. We identified adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, with at least 6 years of follow-up since disease onset, and who started the high-efficacy therapy (rituximab, ocrelizumab, mitoxantrone, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab) either 0–2 years (early) or 4–6 years (late) after clinical disease onset. We matched patients in the early and late groups using propensity scores calculated on the basis of their baseline clinical and demographic data. The primary outcome was disability, measured with the Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS; an ordinal scale of 0–10, with higher scores indicating increased disability), at 6–10 years after disease onset, assessed with a linear mixed-effects model. Findings: We identified 6149 patients in the MSBase registry who had been given high-efficacy therapy, with data collected between Jan 1, 1975, and April 13, 2017, and 2626 patients in the Swedish MS Registry, with data collected between Dec 10, 1997, and Sept 16, 2019. Of whom, 308 in the MSBase registry and 236 in the Swedish MS registry were eligible for inclusion. 277 (51%) of 544 patients commenced therapy early and 267 (49%) commenced therapy late. For the primary analysis, we matched 213 patients in the early treatment group with 253 in the late treatment group. At baseline, the mean EDSS score was 2·2 (SD 1·2) in the early group and 2·1 (SD 1·2) in the late group. Median follow-up time for matched patients was 7·8 years (IQR 6·7–8·9). In the sixth year after disease onset, the mean EDSS score was 2·2 (SD 1·6) in the early group compared with 2·9 (SD 1·8) in the late group (p

none 24 si Importance: It is unclear whether relapses and disease-modifying therapies are associated with the rate of disability accumulation in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). Objective: To examine the association of relapses with the rate of disability accumulation in patients with SPMS and to assess whether treatment before or during the secondary progressive phase can slow the progression of disability accumulation. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this observational cohort study, patient data were prospectively collected from the MSBase international registry between January 1, 1995, and February 1, 2018. Among 53680 patients in the MSBase registry, 4997 patients with SPMS (using the Lorscheider definition) were identified. Of those, 1621 patients were eligible for study inclusion based on sufficient follow-up before and after the onset of SPMS. Data were analyzed from November 15, 2017, to January 13, 2020. Exposures: The association between disability accumulation and several clinical and demographic variables, including relapses and exposure to immunotherapy, was evaluated. Main Outcomes and Measures: Two outcomes were analyzed as measures of disability accumulation during SPMS: The rate of disability accumulation during the secondary progressive phase (change relative to the reference population of patients with MS and absolute change) and the risk of becoming wheelchair dependent. A third outcome, the cumulative risk of experiencing confirmed disability progression events, was used for a secondary analysis. Outcomes were evaluated using multivariable mixed models (ie, linear and Cox models). Results: Of 1621 patients eligible for inclusion, 1103 patients (68.0%) were female, with a mean (SD) age at MS onset of 33.9 (10.6) years. A total of 661 patients (40.8%) experienced superimposed relapses during SPMS. Therapy receipt and relapses during early relapsing-remitting MS were not associated with disability accumulation during the secondary progressive phase. Higher relapse rates during the secondary progressive disease stage were associated with an increased risk of becoming wheelchair dependent (hazard ratio [HR], 1.87; 95% CI, 1.17-3.00; P =.009). Among patients who experienced superimposed relapses during SPMS, greater receipt of disease-modifying therapies was significantly associated with a reduced rate of disability progression and a lower risk of becoming wheelchair dependent. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the rate of disability progression after the onset of SPMS was not associated with the early disease course and treatment decisions. Relapses during SPMS were associated with accelerated disability progression and represent an accessible treatment target. Disease-modifying therapy was associated with improvements in disability outcomes among patients with active relapses during SPMS. The study's results suggest that inflammatory disease activity remains a substantial yet modifiable component of SPMS. open Lizak N.; Malpas C.B.; Sharmin S.; Havrdova E.K.; Horakova D.; Izquierdo G.; Eichau S.; Lugaresi A.; Duquette P.; Girard M.; Prat A.; Larochelle C.; Trojano M.; Grand'maison F.; Grammond P.; Sola P.; Ferraro D.; Hupperts R.; Bergamaschi R.; Boz C.; Van Pesch V.; Spitaleri D.; Terzi M.; Kalincik T. Lizak N.; Malpas C.B.; Sharmin S.; Havrdova E.K.; Horakova D.; Izquierdo G.; Eichau S.; Lugaresi A.; Duquette P.; Girard M.; Prat A.; Larochelle C.; Trojano M.; Grand'maison F.; Grammond P.; Sola P.; Ferraro D.; Hupperts R.; Bergamaschi R.; Boz C.; Van Pesch V.; Spitaleri D.; Terzi M.; Kalincik T.

Patients with the 'aggressive' form of multiple sclerosis accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive multiple sclerosis, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive multiple sclerosis is essential to optimize treatment in this multiple sclerosis subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive multiple sclerosis can be identified based on early clinical markers. We then replicated this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from the MSBase observational study. Inclusion criteria were (i) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset; (ii) at least two recorded EDSS scores; and (iii) at least 10 years of observation time, based on time of last recorded EDSS score. Patients were classified as having 'aggressive multiple sclerosis' if all of the following criteria were met: (i) EDSS ≥ 6 reached within 10 years of symptom onset; (ii) EDSS ≥ 6 confirmed and sustained over ≥6 months; and (iii) EDSS ≥ 6 sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalization). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Of the 2403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive multiple sclerosis (6%). Bayesian model averaging identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS ≥ 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive multiple sclerosis [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.75, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.98]. The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive multiple sclerosis. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = 0.75, 95% CIs: 0.66, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.97). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive multiple sclerosis., National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; Roche; Merck; Biogen; Novartis; Bayer Schering; Sanofi Genzyme; Teva

Altintas, Ayse/0000-0002-8524-5087; Laureys, Guy/0000-0002-1708-4373; Vucic, Steve/0000-0002-8323-873X; patti, francesco/0000-0002-6923-0846; Kister, Ilya/0000-0003-3549-949X; Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589 WOS: 000521648000049 PubMed: 31877445 Background: Aquaporin-4-IgG positive (AQP4-IgG(+)) Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder (NMOSD) is an uncommon central nervous system autoimmune disorder. Disease outcomes in AQP4-IgG + NMOSD are typically measured by relapse rate and disability. Using the MSBase, a multi-centre international registry, we aimed to examine the impact immunosuppressive therapies and patient characteristics as predictors of disease outcome measures in AQP4-IgG + NMOSD. Method: This MSBase cohort study of AQP4-IgG + NMOSD patients examined modifiers of relapse in a multivariable proportional hazards model and expanded disability status score (EDSS) using a mixed effects model. Results: 206 AQP4-IgG + patients were included (median follow-up 3.7 years). Age (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.82 per decade, p = 0.001), brainstem onset (HR = 0.45, p = 0.009), azathioprine (HR = 0.46, p < 0.001) and mycophenolate mofetil (HR = 0.09, p = 0.012) were associated with a reduced risk of relapse. A greater EDSS was associated with age (beta = 0.45 (per decade), p < 0.001) and disease duration (beta = 0.07 per year, p < 0.001). A slower increase in EDSS was associated with azathioprine (beta = -0.48, p < 0.001), mycophenolate mofetil (beta = -0.69, p = 0.04) and rituximab (beta = -0.35, p = 0.024). Interpretation: This study has demonstrated that azathioprine and mycophenolate mofetil reduce the risk of relapses and disability progression is modified by azathioprine, mycophenolate mofetil and rituximab. Age and disease duration were the only patient characteristics that modified the risk of relapse and disability in our cohort. National Health and Medical Research Council of AustraliaNational Health and Medical Research Council of Australia [1083539, 1129189, 1140766, 1080518]; MerckMerck & Company; BiogenBiogen; NovartisNovartis; Bayer-ScheringBayer AG; Sanofi-Genzyme; Teva This study was financially supported by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia [project grants 1083539 and 1129189, and fellowships 1140766 and 1080518]. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer-Schering, Sanofi-Genzyme and Teva. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors.

Background: The magnetic resonance imaging in multiple sclerosis (MAGNIMS) score combines relapses and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions to predict disability outcomes in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with interferon-β. Objective: To validate the MAGNIMS score and extend to other disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). To examine the prognostic value of gadolinium contrast-enhancing (Gd+) lesions. Methods: This RRMS MSBase cohort study ( n = 2293) used a Cox model to examine the prognostic value of relapses, MRI activity and the MAGNIMS score for disability worsening during treatment with interferon-β and three other DMTs. Results: Three new T2 lesions (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.60, p = 0.028) or two relapses (HR = 2.24, p = 0.002) on interferon-β (for 12 months) were predictive of disability worsening over 4 years. MAGNIMS score = 2 (1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses) was associated with a greater risk of disability worsening on interferon-β (HR = 2.0, p = 0.001). In pooled cohort of four DMTs, similar associations were seen (MAGNIMS score = 2: HR = 1.72, p = 0.001). Secondary analyses demonstrated that the addition of Gd+ to the MAGNIMS did not materially improve its prediction of disability worsening. Conclusion: We have validated the MAGNIMS score in RRMS and extended its application to three other DMTs: 1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses predicted worsening of disability. Contrast-enhancing lesions did not substantially improve the prognostic score.

Turkoglu, Recai/0000-0001-9724-851X; Ferraro, Diana/0000-0003-4818-3806; McCombe, Pamela/0000-0003-2704-8517; Altintas, Ayse/0000-0002-8524-5087; Jokubaitis, Vilija G./0000-0002-3942-4340; Slee, Mark/0000-0003-4323-2453; Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589; van Pesch, Vincent/0000-0003-2885-9004; Vucic, Steve/0000-0002-8323-873X WOS: 000481049900001 PubMed: 31397221 Background: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Methods: Patients with adult-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. Conclusion: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression. National Health and Medical Research Council of AustraliaNational Health and Medical Research Council of Australia [1083539, 1129189, 1140766]; BiogenBiogen; RocheRoche Holding; Bayer ScheringBayer AG; Sanofi Genzyme; Teva; MerckMerck & Company; NovartisNovartis The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was financially supported by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (project grants 1083539 and 1129189 and fellowship 1140766). The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organisation that receives support from Merck, Biogen, Roche, Novartis, Bayer Schering, Sanofi Genzyme and Teva. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors.

Supplemental material, MSJ936823_supplement for Prediction of on-treatment disability worsening in RRMS with the MAGNIMS score by Amy Kunchok, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Franco Granella, Maria Trojano, Raed Alroughani, Patrizia Sola, Diana Ferraro, Alessandra Lugaresi, Marco Onofrj, Serkan Ozakbas, Guillermo Izquierdo, Pierre Grammond, Jose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo, Bart Van Wijmeersch, Cavit Boz, Eugenio Pucci, Pamela McCombe, Francois Grand’Maison, Daniele Spitaleri, Steve Vucic, Raymond Hupperts, Vilija Jokubaitis, Maria Pia Sormani, Helmut Butzkueven and Tomas Kalincik in Multiple Sclerosis Journal

none 39 si OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of glatiramer acetate (GA) vs intramuscular interferon beta-1a (IFN-β-1a), we applied a previously published statistical method aimed at identifying patients' profiles associated with efficacy of treatments. METHODS: Data from 2 independent multiple sclerosis datasets, a randomized study (the Combination Therapy in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis [CombiRx] trial, evaluating GA vs IFN-β-1a) and an observational cohort extracted from MSBase, were used to build and validate a treatment response score, regressing annualized relapse rates (ARRs) on a set of baseline predictors. RESULTS: The overall ARR ratio of GA to IFN-β-1a in the CombiRx trial was 0.72. The response score (made up of a linear combination of age, sex, relapses in the previous year, disease duration, and Expanded Disability Status Scale score) detected differential response of GA vs IFN-β-1a: in the trial, patients with the largest benefit from GA vs IFN-β-1a (lower score quartile) had an ARR ratio of 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.63), those in the 2 middle quartiles of 0.90 (95% CI 0.61-1.34), and those in the upper quartile of 1.14 (95% CI 0.59-2.18) (heterogeneity p = 0.012); this result was validated on MSBase, with the corresponding ARR ratios of 0.58 (95% CI 0.46-0.72), 0.92 (95% CI 0.77-1.09,) and 1.29 (95% CI 0.97-1.71); heterogeneity p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the possibility of a criterion, based on patients' characteristics, to choose whether to treat with GA or IFN-β-1a. This result, replicated on an independent real-life cohort, may have implications for clinical decisions in everyday clinical practice. open Bovis F.; Kalincik T.; Lublin F.; Cutter G.; Malpas C.; Horakova D.; Havrdova E.K.; Trojano M.; Prat A.; Girard M.; Duquette P.; Onofrj M.; Lugaresi A.; Izquierdo G.; Eichau S.; Patti F.; Terzi M.; Grammond P.; Bergamaschi R.; Sola P.; Ferraro D.; Ozakbas S.; Iuliano G.; Boz C.; Hupperts R.; Grand'Maison F.; Oreja-Guevara C.; van Pesch V.; Cartechini E.; Petersen T.; Altintas A.; Soysal A.; Ramo-Tello C.; McCombe P.; Turkoglu R.; Butzkueven H.; Wolinsky J.S.; Solaro C.; Sormani M.P. Bovis F.; Kalincik T.; Lublin F.; Cutter G.; Malpas C.; Horakova D.; Havrdova E.K.; Trojano M.; Prat A.; Girard M.; Duquette P.; Onofrj M.; Lugaresi A.; Izquierdo G.; Eichau S.; Patti F.; Terzi M.; Grammond P.; Bergamaschi R.; Sola P.; Ferraro D.; Ozakbas S.; Iuliano G.; Boz C.; Hupperts R.; Grand'Maison F.; Oreja-Guevara C.; van Pesch V.; Cartechini E.; Petersen T.; Altintas A.; Soysal A.; Ramo-Tello C.; McCombe P.; Turkoglu R.; Butzkueven H.; Wolinsky J.S.; Solaro C.; Sormani M.P.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease which usually begins in young adulthood and is a lifelong condition. Individuals with MS experience physical and cognitive disability resulting from inflammation and demyelination in the central nervous system. Over the past decade, several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been approved for the management of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), which is the most prevalent phenotype. The chronic nature of the disease and the multiple treatment options make benefit-risk-based sequencing of therapy essential to ensure optimal care. The efficacy and short- and long-term risks of treatment differ for each DMT due to their different mechanism of action on the immune system. While transitioning between DMTs, in addition to immune system effects, factors such as age, disease duration and severity, disability status, monitoring requirements, preference for the route of administration, and family planning play an important role. Determining a treatment strategy is therefore challenging as it requires careful consideration of the differences in efficacy, safety and tolerability, while at the same time minimizing risks of immune modulation. In this review, we discuss a sequencing approach for treating RRMS, with importance given to the long-term risks and individual preference when devising a treatment plan. Evidence-based strategies to counter breakthrough disease are also addressed.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. METHODS: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. RESULTS: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS. ispartof: COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE vol:208 ispartof: location:Ireland status: published

ObjectiveWhether immunotherapy improves long-term disability in multiple sclerosis has not been satisfactorily demonstrated. This study examined the effect of immunotherapy on long-term disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.MethodsWe studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year and exposed to a multiple sclerosis therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the hazard of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, EDSS step 6 and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity.Results14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.43–0.82, p=0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38-0.82, p=0.0026) and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19-0.59, p=0.00019). Among 1085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50–0.70, p=10-9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67-0.99, p=0.043).ConclusionsContinued treatment with multiple sclerosis immunotherapies reduces disability accrual (by 19-44%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% and the frequency of relapses (by 40-41%) over 15 years. A proof of long-term effect of immunomodulation on disability outcomes is the key to establishing its disease modifying properties.

Patients with the ‘aggressive’ form of MS accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching EDSS >= 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive MS, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive MS is essential to optimise treatment in this MS subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive MS can be identified based on early clinical markers, and to replicate this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from MSBase. Inclusion criteria were (a) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset, (b) at least 2 recorded EDSS scores, and (c) at least 10 years of observation time. Patients were classified as having ‘aggressive MS’ if they: (a) reached EDSS >= 6 within 10 years of symptom onset, (b) EDSS >=6 was confirmed and sustained over >=6 months, and (c) EDSS >=6 was sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalisation). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish MS Registry. Of the 2,403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive MS (6%). BMA identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS >= 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive MS (AUC = .80, 95% CIs = .75, .84). The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish MS Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive MS. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = .75, 95% CIs = .66, .84). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive MS.

There is limited evidence on the effectiveness and healthcare costs of switching to fingolimod versus another first line injectable therapy (FLIT) in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) who have already been treated with FLIT.The objectives of the study were to assess the annualized relapse rate (ARR), socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, persistence and adherence rates, healthcare resource utilization and cost among patients with RMS who either switch to fingolimod or another FLIT in routine clinical practice.A multicenter, observational, retrospective chart review was conducted across eight clinics in Canada between 1 May 2011 and 30 June 2013. The data was collected from two cohorts: patients who switched to fingolimod and patients who switched to FLIT from a previous FLIT.A total of 124 patients were included in the study: 82 and 42 switched to fingolimod and FLIT, respectively. There were no significant differences in the patient characteristics at the date of switch except for number of previous disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) which was higher in the fingolimod cohort (fingolimod: 1.52; FLIT: 1.10, p .001). The ARR during the first year of switching was numerically higher in the FLIT cohort compared to the fingolimod cohort (FLIT: 0.9 [95% CI 0.3-1.6]; fingolimod: 0.3 [95% CI 0.1-0.5]). The negative binomial model adjusted for the number of previous DMTs confirmed a statistically significant difference in ARR between the fingolimod and FLIT cohorts at 12 months of follow-up (p = .012). In the fingolimod cohort, 20.7% of patients experienced at least one relapse compared to 38.1% in the FLIT cohort. In both groups, a high proportion of patients (90%) showed good treatment adherence (≥80% of prescribed doses).

Turkoglu, Recai/0000-0001-9724-851X; McCombe, Pamela/0000-0003-2704-8517; Jokubaitis, Vilija G./0000-0002-3942-4340; Oreja-Guevara, Celia/0000-0002-9221-5716; Ramo-Tello, Cristina/0000-0001-8643-5053; Vucic, Steve/0000-0002-8323-873X; Nguyen, Ai-Lan/0000-0003-0378-6005; Kalincik, Tomas/0000-0003-3778-1376; van Pesch, Vincent/0000-0003-2885-9004; Skibina, Olga/0000-0002-6275-8138; Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589; Slee, Mark/0000-0003-4323-2453 WOS: 000459833100045 PubMed: 30623864 Background: Exposure to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) during early pregnancy in women with relapsing-remitting MS (RAMS) may be increasing. Objective: To retrospectively determine incidence of pregnancy, DMT exposure and pregnancy outcomes in women with RAMS. Methods: We identified all women with RAMS aged 15-45 years in the MSBase Registry between 2005-2016. Annualised pregnancy incidence rates were calculated using Poisson regression models. DMT exposures and pregnancy outcomes were assessed. Results: Of 9,098 women meeting inclusion criteria, 1,178 (13%) women recorded 1,521 pregnancies. The annualised incidence rate of pregnancy was 0.042 (95% CI 0.040, 0.045). A total of 635 (42%) reported pregnancies were conceived on DMT, increasing from 27% in 2006 to 62% in 2016. The median duration of DMT exposure during pregnancy was 30 days (IQR: 9, 50). There were a higher number of induced abortions on FDA pregnancy class C/D drugs compared with pregnancy class B and no DMT (p = 0.010); but no differences in spontaneous abortions, term or preterm births. Conclusions: We report low pregnancy incidence rates, with increasing number of pregnancies conceived on DMT over the past 12-years. The median duration of DMT exposure in pregnancy was relatively short at one month. National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia centre for research excellence grant [1001216]; BiogenBiogen; MerckMerck & Company; NovartisNovartis; RocheRoche Holding; Sanofi-Genzyme This study was financially supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia centre for research excellence grant [1001216]. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organisation that receives support from Biogen, Merck, Novartis, Roche and Sanofi-Genzyme. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors.

Supplemental material, MSJ868990_online_supplement for Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A longitudinal study by Adam Fambiatos, Vilija Jokubaitis, Dana Horakova, Eva Kubala Havrdova, Maria Trojano, Alexandre Prat, Marc Girard, Pierre Duquette, Alessandra Lugaresi, Guillermo Izquierdo, Francois Grand’Maison, Pierre Grammond, Patrizia Sola, Diana Ferraro, Raed Alroughani, Murat Terzi, Raymond Hupperts, Cavit Boz, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Eugenio Pucci, Roberto Bergamaschi, Vincent Van Pesch, Serkan Ozakbas, Franco Granella, Recai Turkoglu, Gerardo Iuliano, Daniele Spitaleri, Pamela McCombe, Claudio Solaro, Mark Slee, Radek Ampapa, Aysun Soysal, Thor Petersen, Jose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo, Freek Verheul, Julie Prevost, Youssef Sidhom, Bart Van Wijmeersch, Steve Vucic, Edgardo Cristiano, Maria Laura Saladino, Norma Deri, Michael Barnett, Javier Olascoaga, Fraser Moore, Olga Skibina, Orla Gray, Yara Fragoso, Bassem Yamout, Cameron Shaw, Bhim Singhal, Neil Shuey, Suzanne Hodgkinson, Ayse Altintas, Talal Al-Harbi, Tunde Csepany, Bruce Taylor, Jordana Hughes, Jae-Kwan Jun, Anneke van der Walt, Tim Spelman, Helmut Butzkueven and Tomas Kalincik in Multiple Sclerosis Journal

Turkoglu, Recai/0000-0001-9724-851X; Ferraro, Diana/0000-0003-4818-3806; Jokubaitis, Vilija G./0000-0002-3942-4340; McCombe, Pamela/0000-0003-2704-8517; Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589; Slee, Mark/0000-0003-4323-2453; Kalincik, Tomas/0000-0003-3778-1376; Vucic, Steve/0000-0002-8323-873X; Ramo-Tello, Cristina/0000-0001-8643-5053 WOS: 000471115600018 PubMed: 30636699 Objective Oral immunotherapies have become a standard treatment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Direct comparison of their effect on relapse and disability is needed. Methods We identified all patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated with teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate or fingolimod, with minimum 3-month treatment persistence and disability follow-up in the global MSBase cohort study. Patients were matched using propensity scores. Three pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates and hazards of disability accumulation, disability improvement and treatment discontinuation (analysed with negative binomial models and weighted conditional survival models, with pairwise censoring). Results The eligible cohorts consisted of 614 (teriflunomide), 782 (dimethyl fumarate) or 2332 (fingolimod) patients, followed over the median of 2.5 years. Annualised relapse rates were lower on fingolimod compared with teriflunomide (0.18 vs 0.24; p=0.05) and dimethyl fumarate (0.20 vs 0.26; p=0.01) and similar on dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide (0.19 vs 0.22; p=0.55). No differences in disability accumulation (p >= 0.59) or improvement (p >= 0.14) were found between the therapies. In patients with >= 3-month treatment persistence, subsequent discontinuations were less likely on fingolimod than teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (p

Objective: This study evaluated the effect of relapse phenotype on disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis. Methods: Analysis of prospectively collected data was conducted in 19,504 patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and minimum 1-year prospective follow-up from the MSBase cohort study. Multivariable linear regression models assessed associations between relapse incidence, phenotype and changes in disability (quantified with Expanded Disability Status Scale and its Functional System scores). Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: In 34,858 relapses recorded during 136,462 patient-years (median follow-up 5.9 years), higher relapse incidence was associated with greater disability accumulation (β = 0.16, p Conclusion: Relapses are associated with accumulation of neurological disability. Relapses in pyramidal, cerebellar and bowel/bladder systems have the greatest association with disability change. Therefore, prevention of these relapses is an important objective of disease-modifying therapy. The differential impact of relapse phenotypes on disability outcomes could influence management of treatment failure in multiple sclerosis.

Objective To identify predictors of 10-year Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) change after treatment initiation in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. Methods Using data obtained from MSBase, we defined baseline as the date of first injectable therapy initiation. Patients need only have remained on injectable therapy for 1 day and were monitored on any approved disease-modifying therapy, or no therapy thereafter. Median EDSS score changes over a 10-year period were determined. Predictors of EDSS change were then assessed using median quantile regression analysis. Sensitivity analyses were further performed. Results We identified 2,466 patients followed up for at least 10 years reporting post-baseline disability scores. Patients were treated an average 83% of their follow-up time. EDSS scores increased by a median 1 point (interquartile range = 0–2) at 10 years post-baseline. Annualized relapse rate was highly predictive of increases in median EDSS over 10 years (coeff = 1.14, p = 1.9 × 10−22). On-therapy relapses carried greater burden than off-therapy relapses. Cumulative treatment exposure was independently associated with lower EDSS at 10 years (coeff = −0.86, p = 1.3 × 10−9). Furthermore, pregnancies were also independently associated with lower EDSS scores over the 10-year observation period (coeff = −0.36, p = 0.009). Interpretation We provide evidence of long-term treatment benefit in a large registry cohort, and provide evidence of long-term protective effects of pregnancy against disability accrual. We demonstrate that high annualized relapse rate, particularly on-treatment relapse, is an indicator of poor prognosis. Ann Neurol 2016;80:89–100

Ferraro, Diana/0000-0003-4818-3806; Jokubaitis, Vilija G./0000-0002-3942-4340; Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589; van Pesch, Vincent/0000-0003-2885-9004; Ramo-Tello, Cristina/0000-0001-8643-5053; Kalincik, Tomas/0000-0003-3778-1376; Slee, Mark/0000-0003-4323-2453 WOS: 000449955900014 PubMed: 30083762 IMPORTANCE The role of inflammatory disease activity as a determinant of disability in progressive-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) remains contested. OBJECTIVE To examine the association of superimposed relapses in progressive-onset MS on disease outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTiCIPANTS Observational cohort study from MSBase, a prospectively collected, international database. Data were collected between January 1995 and February 2017. Analyses began in February 2017. From 44 449 patients at time of extraction, 1419 eligible patients (31.9%) were identified for analysis. Inclusion criteria consisted of primary progressive MS (PPMS) or progressive-relapsing MS (PRMS), adult-onset disease, and minimum data set (including >= 3 visits with disability recorded, >= 3 months between second and last visit). Data were analyzed using multivariable regression models (Andersen-Gill) with mixed effects. Two sensitivity analyses to exclude both relapse-related disability progression and bout-onset progressive MS were performed. EXPOSURES Grouped according to presence or absence of relapse, defined as an acute episode of clinical worsening. Quantifiable disability change or correlation on imaging was not required to confirm relapse. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cumulative hazard of disability progression. RESULTS Patients with PRMS were younger than those with PPMS (mean [SD] age, 46 [15] vs 51 [10] years, Cohen d =0.40) and demonstrated a mean lower Expanded Disability Status Scale score (mean [SD] score, 4.0 [3] vs 4.5 [2.5], Cohen d=0.28) at inclusion. The ratio of men to women was similar in the PRMS and PPMS groups (252:301 vs 394:472). The overall mean (SD) age was 48 (11) years for men and 50 (10) years for women. Likelihood of confirmed disability progression was lower in patients with superimposed relapses (hazard ratio [HR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94; P = .003). Proportion of follow-up time spent on disease-modifying therapy significantly reduced the hazard of confirmed disability progression in the cohort with relapse (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.99; P = .01) but not in those without relapse (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.99-1.05; P = .26). When accounting for relapse-related progression, the association of disease-modifying therapy in the cohort with superimposed relapse was no longer observed (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.96-1.24; P = .16). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In progressive-onset MS, superimposed relapses are associated with a lower risk of confirmed disability progression. This is most likely attributed to the association of disease-modifying therapy with the prevention of relapse-related disability accrual in patients with superimposed relapse. These findings suggest that inflammatory relapses are an important and modifiable determinant of disability accrual in progressive-onset disease. BayerBayer AG; BiogenBiogen; Merck Co.Merck & Company; NovartisNovartis; Sanofi; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; Fondazione Italiana Sclerosi MultiplaFondazione Italiana Sclerosi Multipla (FISM); Canadian Institutes of Health ResearchCanadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR); EMD; GenzymeGenzyme Corporation; Teva Medical Cente; Beer Yaakov, Israel; Mater Dei Hospital, Balzan, Malta; University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia; Austin Health, Melbourne, Australia; Universitary Hospital Ghent, Ghent, Belgium; MS Clinic, Hopital Tenon, Paris, France; University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary; Bombay Hospital Institute of Medical Sciences, Mumbai, India; PGIMER, Chandigarh, India; Hospital Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman; Central Military Emergency University Hospital, Bucharest, Romania; MSBase Administrations Dr Jokubaitis received conference travel support from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Novartis, and Biogen and speaker honoraria from Biogen and Novartis. Dr Lugaresi is an advisory board member at Bayer, Biogen, Genzyme, and Merck & Co; received travel grants and honoraria from Bayer, Biogen, Merck & Co, Novartis, Sanofi, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, and Fondazione Italiana Sclerosi Multipla; and her institution received research grants from Bayer, Biogen, Merck & Co, Novartis, Sanofi, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, and Fondazione Italiana Sclerosi Multipla. Dr Hupperts received honoraria as a consultant on scientific advisory boards from Merck & Co, Biogen, Sanofi Genzyme, and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; research funding from Merck & Co and Biogen; and speaker honoraria from Sanofi Genzyme and Novartis. Dr Izquierdo received speaking honoraria from Biogen, Novartis, Sanofi, Merck & Co, and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries. Dr Girard received consulting fees from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries-Canada Innovation, Biogen, Novartis, and Sanofi Genzyme; lecture payments from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries-Canada Innovation, Novartis, and EMD; and has received a research grant from Canadian Institutes of Health Research. Dr Duquette served on editorial boards and has been supported to attend meetings by EMD, Biogen, Novartis, Genzyme, and Teva Medical Cente, Beer Yaakov, Israel: Shlomo Flechter, MD; Mater Dei Hospital, Balzan, Malta: Norbert Vella, MD; University ofWestern Australia, Perth, Australia: Allan Kermode, PhD, Marzena Fabis-Pedrini, MSc; Austin Health, Melbourne, Australia: Richard Macdonell, PhD; Universitary Hospital Ghent, Ghent, Belgium: Guy Laureys, MD; MS Clinic, Hopital Tenon, Paris, France: Etienne Roullet, MD; University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary: Tunde Csepany, MD; Bombay Hospital Institute of Medical Sciences, Mumbai, India: Bhim Singhal, MD; PGIMER, Chandigarh, India: Dheeraj Khurana, MD; Hospital Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Joyce Pauline Joseph, MD; Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman: Jabir Alkhaboori, MD; Central Military Emergency University Hospital, Bucharest, Romania: Carmen-Adella Sirbu, MD (data acquisition); and MSBase Administrations: Charlotte Sartori, Sabah Quddus, and Eloise Hinson (administrative and technical support).

Background: The current best practice suggests yearly magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to monitor treatment response in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Objective: To evaluate the current practice of clinicians changing MS treatment based on subclinical new MRI lesions alone. Methods: Using MSBase, an international MS patient registry with MRI data, we analysed the probability of treatment change among patients with clinically silent new MRI lesions. Results: A total of 8311 MRI brain scans of 4232 patients were identified. Around 26.9% (336/1247) MRIs with one new T2 lesion were followed by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) change, increasing to 50.2% (129/257) with six new T2 lesions. DMT change was twice as likely with new T1 contrast enhancing compared to new T2 lesions odds ratio (OR): 2.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.00–2.96 vs OR: 1.26 (95% CI: 1.22–1.29). DMT change with new MRI lesions occurred most frequently with ‘injectable’ DMTs. The probability of switching therapy was greater only after high-efficacy therapies became available in 2007 (after, OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.28–1.59 vs before, OR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.520–1.88). Conclusion: MS clinicians rely increasingly on MRI alone in their treatment decisions, utilizing low thresholds (1 new T2 lesion) for optimizing MS therapy. This signals a shift towards no evidence of disease activity (NEDA)-3 since high-efficacy therapies became available.

Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589; Ferraro, Diana/0000-0003-4818-3806; patti, francesco/0000-0002-6923-0846; Kister, Ilya/0000-0003-3549-949X; Spelman, Tim/0000-0001-9204-3216 WOS: 000439672500016 PubMed: 30103975 Background: Discontinuation of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for MS is common. MSBase, a large global observational registry, affords a unique opportunity to investigate predictors of 'post-DMT' relapses and confirmed disability progression (CDP) in a diverse group of patients exposed to different DMTs. Materials/methods: Main inclusion criteria: clinician-confirmed MS diagnosis (2010 McDonald criteria); age 18 at index DMT start; >= 12 months on index DMT prior to discontinuation; >= 24 months of follow-up post-discontinuation; did not restart DMT for >= 6 months. Predictors of time to first relapse and 3-month CDP were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for age, gender, baseline EDSS, EDSS stability and relapse-free period for >= 1 year prior to discontinuation, calendar epoch, index DMT and reason for discontinuation. Results: 4842 patients (74.2% female) from 20 MSBase Centers met our inclusion criteria. 3556 (73%) discontinued one of IFN beta preparations, 849 (18%) - glatiramer acetate, 308 (6%) - natalizumab and 129 (3%) - fingolimod; other DMTs were excluded because too few records were available. Overall post-discontinuation annualized relapse rate (95% CI) was 0.224 (0.219, 0.229) and CDP rate was 8.23 (7.72, 8.76) per 100 person years. Risk of post-DMT relapse was higher in younger patients, female patients, those with moderate disability and a relapse within 1 year of discontinuation. Hazard of CDP increased with increasing disability at baseline and disease progression within 3 years prior to stopping DMT. Of all the DMTs, only natalizumab was associated with increased risk of both post-DMT relapse and CDP. Conclusions: Knowledge of post-DMT relapse and disability progression rates and predictors of post-DMT disease activity allows for a more informed discussion of DMT discontinuation in those patients who are considering this option. Bayer ScheringBayer AG; Biogen IdecBiogen; Merck SeronoMerck SeronoMerck & Company; Novartis Pharma; SanofiSanofi-Aventis No targeted funding was provided for this study. MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Bayer Schering, Biogen Idec, Merck Serono, Novartis Pharma, and Sanofi.

Background and purpose Treatment options in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) are scarce and, with the exception of ocrelizumab, anti-inflammatory agents have failed to show efficacy in ameliorating disability progression. The aim of this study was to investigate a potential effect of anti-inflammatory disease-modifying treatment on disability outcomes in PPMS. Methods Using MSBase, a large, international, observational database, we identified patients with PPMS who were either never treated or treated with a disease-modifying agent. Propensity score matching was used to select subpopulations with similar baseline characteristics. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) outcomes were compared with an intention-to-treat and an as-treated approach in paired, pairwise-censored analyses. Results Of the 1284 included patients, 533 were matched (treated, n = 195; untreated n = 338). Median on-study pairwise-censored follow-up was 3.4 years (quartiles 1.2-5.5). No difference in the hazard of experiencing 3-month confirmed EDSS progression events was observed between the groups [hazard ratio (HR), 1.0; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.6-1.7, P = 0.87]. We did not find significant differences in the hazards of confirmed EDSS improvement (HR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6, P = 0.91) or reaching a confirmed EDSS step ≥7 (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.7-1.6, P = 0.69). Conclusion Our pooled analysis of disease-modifying agents suggests that these therapies have no substantial effect on short- to medium-term disability outcomes in PPMS.

Jokubaitis, Vilija G./0000-0002-3942-4340; Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589; McCombe, Pamela/0000-0003-2704-8517; Kermode, Allan/0000-0002-4476-4016; Slee, Mark/0000-0003-4323-2453; Kalincik, Tomas/0000-0003-3778-1376; Pedrini, Marzena/0000-0002-2614-8607; Butzkueven, Helmut/0000-0003-3940-8727; Trojano, Maria/0000-0002-6329-8946 WOS: 000447789100014 PubMed: 28857680 Objective: This propensity score-matched analysis from MSBase compared the effectiveness of cladribine with interferon , fingolimod or natalizumab. Methods: We identified all patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis, exposure to the study therapies and 1-year on-treatment follow-up from MSBase. Three pairwise propensity score-matched analyses compared treatment outcomes over 1year. The outcomes were hazards of first relapse, disability accumulation and disability improvement events. Sensitivity analyses were completed. Results: The cohorts consisted of 37 (cladribine), 1940 (interferon), 1892 (fingolimod) and 1410 patients (natalizumab). The probability of experiencing a relapse on cladribine was lower than on interferon (p=0.05), similar to fingolimod (p=0.31) and higher than on natalizumab (p=0.042). The probability of disability accumulation on cladribine was similar to interferon (p=0.37) and fingolimod (p=0.089) but greater than natalizumab (p=0.021). The probability of disability improvement was higher on cladribine than interferon (p=0.00017), fingolimod (p=0.0025) or natalizumab (p=0.00099). Sensitivity analyses largely confirmed the above results. Conclusion: Cladribine is an effective therapy for relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. Its effect on relapses is comparable to fingolimod and its effect on disability accrual is comparable to interferon and fingolimod. Cladribine may potentially associate with superior recovery from disability relative to interferon, fingolimod and natalizumab. National Health and Medical Research Council of AustraliaNational Health and Medical Research Council of Australia [1129189, 1083539, 1080518]; MerckMerck & Company; BiogenBiogen; NovartisNovartis; RocheRoche Holding; Bayer ScheringBayer AG; Sanofi Genzyme; Teva The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article: This study was financially supported by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (project grants 1129189 and 1083539 and practitioner fellowship 1080518). The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organisation that receives support from Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Roche, Bayer Schering, Sanofi Genzyme and Teva.

OBJECTIVE: To compare treatment efficacy and persistence in patients who switched to natalizumab versus those who switched between glatiramer acetate (GA) and interferon-beta (IFNβ) after an on-treatment relapse on IFNβ or GA using propensity score matched real-world datasets.METHODS: Patients included were registered in MSBase or the TYSABRI Observational Program (TOP), had relapsed on IFNβ or GA within 12 months prior to switching to another therapy, and had initiated natalizumab or IFNβ/GA treatment ≤6 months after discontinuing prior therapy. Covariates were balanced across post switch treatment groups by propensity score matching at treatment initiation. Relapse, persistence, and disability measures were compared between matched treatment arms in the total population (n = 869/group) and in subgroups defined by prior treatment history (IFNβ only [n = 578/group], GA only [n = 165/group], or both IFNβ and GA [n = 176/group]).RESULTS: Compared to switching between IFNβ and GA, switching to natalizumab reduced annualized relapse rate in year one by 65-75%, the risk of first relapse by 53-82% (mean follow-up 1.7-2.2 years) and treatment discontinuation events by 48-65% (all P ≤ 0.001). In the total population, switching to natalizumab reduced the risk of confirmed disability progression by 26% (P = 0.036) and decreased the total disability burden by 1.54 EDSS-years (P < 0.0001) over the first 24 months post switch.INTERPRETATION: Using large, real-world, propensity-matched datasets we demonstrate that after a relapse on IFNβ or GA, switching to natalizumab (rather than between IFNβ and GA) led to superior outcomes for patients in all measures assessed. Results were consistent regardless of the prior treatment identity.

Signori, Alessio/0000-0001-6289-9144; Sajedi, Seyed Aidin/0000-0002-6704-9787; Jokubaitis, Vilija G./0000-0002-3942-4340; Shaygannejad, Vahid/0000-0002-6226-0161; Oreja-Guevara, Celia/0000-0002-9221-5716; amato, Maria Pia/0000-0003-3325-3760; Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589; Majdinasab, Nastaran/0000-0001-5163-7210; Kalincik, Tomas/0000-0003-3778-1376; Butzkueven, Helmut/0000-0003-3940-8727; van Pesch, Vincent/0000-0003-2885-9004; pucci, eugenio/0000-0001-7606-7330; Petersen, Thor/0000-0001-5633-2600; Prat, Alexandre/0000-0001-6188-0580; Sanchez Menoyo, Jose Luis/0000-0003-2634-8294; Slee, Mark/0000-0003-4323-2453; SORMANI, MARIA PIA/0000-0001-6892-104X; Trojano, Maria/0000-0002-6329-8946 WOS: 000432098100013 PubMed: 28382837 Background: Several natural history studies on primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients detected a consistent heterogeneity in the rate of disability accumulation. Objectives: To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over time. Methods: All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset, were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modeled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups showing similar characteristics. Results: A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 years (standard deviation (SD): 10.8 years), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5-5.5), and 2.4 years of disease duration (SD: 1.5 years) were included. LCMM detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n = 143; 16.8%), moderate (n = 378; 44.3%), or severe (n = 332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.4%, and 81.9% respectively. Conclusion: Applying an LCMM modeling approach to long-term EDSS data, it is possible to identify groups of PPMS patients with different prognosis. MSBase Foundation; Merck SeronoMerck SeronoMerck & Company; BiogenBiogen; Novartis Pharma; Bayer ScheringBayer AG; Sanofi-AventisSanofi-Aventis; BioCSL The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was funded by the MSBase Foundation. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Merck Serono, Biogen, Novartis Pharma, Bayer Schering, Sanofi-Aventis and BioCSL. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors.