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4. Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction

Author

B T, Gouweleeuw, Thielen, J, Franchello, G, A P J, De Roo, Buizza, R, and EGU, Publication

Subjects
Global Forecast System, Ensemble forecasting, Meteorology, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Flood forecasting, Numerical weather prediction, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Model output statistics, Climatology, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, [SDU.STU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Environmental science, Probabilistic forecasting, North American Mesoscale Model
Abstract

Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach towards a probabilistic approach based on ensemble techniques. While this probabilistic approach is now more or less common practice and well established in the meteorological community, operational flood forecasters have only started to look for ways to interpret and mitigate for end-users the prediction products obtained by combining so-called Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with rainfall-runoff models. This paper presents initial results obtained by combining deterministic and EPS hindcasts of the global NWP model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the large-scale hydrological model LISFLOOD for two historic flood events: the river Meuse flood in January 1995 and the river Odra flood in July 1997. In addition, a possible way to interpret the obtained ensemble based stream flow prediction is proposed.

Published
2005

7. VALIDATION OF THE JRC TSUNAMI PROPAGATION AND INUNDATION CODES.

Author

Zamora, N., Franchello, G., and Anunziato, A.

Subjects
TSUNAMI hazard zones, NUMERICAL analysis, THEORY of wave motion, SHORELINES, PROBLEM solving, GEODETIC satellites
Abstract

In the last years several numerical codes have been developed to analyse tsunami waves. Most of these codes use a finite difference numerical approach giving good results for tsunami wave propagation, but with limitations in modelling inundation processes. The HyFlux2 model has been developed to simulate inundation scenario due to dam break, flash flood and tsunami-wave run-up. The model solves the conservative form of the two-dimensional shallow water equations using a finite volume method. The implementation of a shoreline-tracking method provides reliable results. HyFlux2 robustness has been tested using several tsunami events. The main aim of this study is code validation by means of comparing different code results with available measurements. Another objective of the study is to evaluate how the different fault models could generate different results that should be considered for coastal planning. Several simulations have been performed to compare HyFlux2 code with SWAN-JRC code and the TUNAMI-N2. HyFlux2 has been validated taking advantage of the extensive seismic, geodetic measurements and post-tsunami field surveys performed after the Nias March 28th tsunami. Although more detailed shallow bathymetry is needed to assess the inundation, diverse results in the wave heights have been revealed when comparing the different fault mechanism. Many challenges still exist for tsunami researchers especially when concern to early warning systems as shown in this Nias March 28th tsunami. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2014

9. RESPONSE OF THE GDACS SYSTEM TO THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF 11 MARCH 2011.

Author

Franchello, G. and De Groeve, T.

Subjects
SENDAI Earthquake, Japan, 2011, TSUNAMIS, GLOBAL Ocean Observing System, TSUNAMI warning systems, NATURAL disaster warning systems, EMERGENCY communication systems
Abstract

The Tohoku Tsunami of 11 March 2011 was successfully identified and classified as Red alert by the GDACS system only when reliable and more correct estimations of the originating event have been provided to the system by the international seismological networks. Nevertheless the early analysis of the event by the comparison of the scenario calculations with the sea level could give important information on the real extent and impact of the Tsunami. The paper describe the response of the GDACS system and identify the lessons learned that determined changes in the logic and the procedures of the Tsunami calculations strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2012

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