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3. The use of Bayesian networks for realist evaluation of complex interventions: evidence for prevention of human trafficking

Author

Kiss, Ligia, Fotheringhame, David, Mak, Joelle, McAlpine, Alys, and Zimmerman, Cathy

Abstract

Complex systems and realist evaluation offer promising approaches for evaluating social interventions. These approaches take into account the complex interplay among factors to produce outcomes, instead of attempting to isolate single causes of observed effects. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) in realist evaluation of interventions to prevent complex social problems. It draws on the example of the theory-based evaluation of the Work in Freedom Programme (WIF), a large UK-funded anti-trafficking intervention by the International Labour Organisation in South Asia. We used BN to explore causal pathways to human trafficking using data from 519 Nepalese returnee migrants. The findings suggest that risks of trafficking are mostly determined by migrants’ destination country, how they are recruited and in which sector they work. These findings challenge widely held assumptions about individual-level vulnerability and emphasize that future investments will benefit from approaches that recognise the complexity of an intervention’s causal mechanisms in social contexts. BNs are a useful approach for the conceptualisation, design and evaluation of complex social interventions.

Published
2024
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6. Latin American young NEETs: Brazil as a case study for systemic risks of youth social exclusion.

Author

Kiss, Ligia, Fotheringhame, David, and Quinlan-Davidson, Meaghen

Subjects
*AT-risk youth, *EQUALITY, *YOUNG adults, *SYSTEMIC risk (Finance), *RACE, *SOCIAL marginality
Abstract

Globally, one fifth of individuals aged 15–24 are 'not in employment, education or training' (NEET). NEETs have become an increasingly important notion in international debate, although criticisms are directed at its all-encompassing nature and lack of concern with the intergenerational, gendered, social and systemic inequalities that influence young people becoming NEETs. Prevalence of youth NEETs is especially high in Latin America, with women disproportionally affected. Brazil has one of the highest absolute numbers of NEETs in LAC. This paper uses data from the last Brazilian census to examine contextual drivers of NEETs in Brazil, and to critically assess broader implications for policy. In Brazil, states with higher coefficients of social inequality and levels of criminality are more likely to have higher proportion of youth NEET. Globally, social inequalities associated with gender, race and crime are pervasive drivers of young NEET status. Latin American youth are in a particularly disadvantageous position. Policies that aim to overcome social exclusion and marginalisation of youth need to focus on systemic drivers of the NEET condition among vulnerable subgroups of young people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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