142 results on '"Foss, Anna M."'
Search Results
2. The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation
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Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Villabona-Arenas, C Julian, Nightingale, Emily S, Showering, Alicia, Knight, Gwenan M, Sherratt, Katharine, Liu, Yang, Abbas, Kaja, Funk, Sebastian, Endo, Akira, Hellewell, Joel, Rosello, Alicia, Lowe, Rachel, Quaife, Matthew, Gimma, Amy, Brady, Oliver, Williams, Jack, Procter, Simon R, Eggo, Rosalind M, Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond, Munday, James D, Barnard, Rosanna C, Gore-Langton, Georgia R, Bosse, Nikos I, Waterlow, Naomi R, Diamond, Charlie, Russell, Timothy W, Medley, Graham, Flasche, Stefan, Atkins, Katherine E, Prem, Kiesha, Simons, David, Auzenbergs, Megan, Tully, Damien C, Jarvis, Christopher I, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Abbott, Sam, Pearson, Carl A B, Jombart, Thibaut, Meakin, Sophie R, Foss, Anna M, Kucharski, Adam J, Quilty, Billy J, Gibbs, Hamish P, Clifford, Samuel, Klepac, Petra, Sandmann, Frank G, Davies, Nicholas G, Vassall, Anna, Edmunds, W John, and Jit, Mark
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- 2021
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3. Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study
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Atkins, Katherine E, Foss, Anna M, Waterlow, Naomi R, Abbas, Kaja, Lowe, Rachel, Pearson, Carl A B, Funk, Sebastian, Rosello, Alicia, Knight, Gwenan M, Bosse, Nikos I, Procter, Simon R, Gore-Langton, Georgia R, Showering, Alicia, Munday, James D, Sherratt, Katharine, Jombart, Thibaut, Nightingale, Emily S, Liu, Yang, Jarvis, Christopher I, Medley, Graham, Brady, Oliver, Gibbs, Hamish P, Simons, David, Williams, Jack, Tully, Damien C, Flasche, Stefan, Meakin, Sophie R, Zandvoort, Kevin, Sun, Fiona Y, Jit, Mark, Klepac, Petra, Quaife, Matthew, Eggo, Rosalind M, Sandmann, Frank G, Endo, Akira, Prem, Kiesha, Abbott, Sam, Barnard, Rosanna, Chan, Yung-Wai D, Auzenbergs, Megan, Gimma, Amy, Villabona-Arenas, C Julian, Davies, Nicholas G, Quilty, Billy J, Clifford, Samuel, Hellewell, Joel, Russell, Timothy W, Kucharski, Adam J, and Edmunds, W John
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- 2021
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4. Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study
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Emery, Jon C, Medley, Graham, Munday, James D, Russell, Timothy W, Leclerc, Quentin J, Diamond, Charlie, Procter, Simon R, Gimma, Amy, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Gibbs, Hamish P, Rosello, Alicia, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Hué, Stéphane, Meakin, Sophie R, Deol, Arminder K, Knight, Gwen, Jombart, Thibaut, Foss, Anna M, Bosse, Nikos I, Atkins, Katherine E, Quilty, Billy J, Lowe, Rachel, Prem, Kiesha, Flasche, Stefan, Pearson, Carl A B, Houben, Rein M G J, Nightingale, Emily S, Endo, Akira, Tully, Damien C, Liu, Yang, Villabona-Arenas, Julian, O'Reilly, Kathleen, Funk, Sebastian, Eggo, Rosalind M, Jit, Mark, Rees, Eleanor M, Hellewell, Joel, Clifford, Samuel, Jarvis, Christopher I, Abbott, Sam, Auzenbergs, Megan, Davies, Nicholas G, Simons, David, Kucharski, Adam J, Klepac, Petra, Conlan, Andrew J K, Kissler, Stephen M, Tang, Maria L, Fry, Hannah, Gog, Julia R, and Edmunds, W John
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- 2020
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5. Triadic partnerships: Evaluation of a group mentorship scheme
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Foss, Anna M, primary, Kohler, Sophia, additional, Kulkarni, Sumedh, additional, Sutton, Natalina, additional, Schreiner, Mary-Ann, additional, Centemero, Nicolò Saverio, additional, Mambula, Grace, additional, Lohman, Diederik, additional, Smith, Sarah C, additional, and French, Rebecca, additional
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- 2022
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6. Assessing framing assumptions in quantitative health impact assessments: A housing intervention example
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Mesa-Frias, Marco, Chalabi, Zaid, and Foss, Anna M.
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- 2013
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7. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies protect against reinfection for at least 6 months in a multicentre seroepidemiological workplace cohort
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Finch, Emilie, Lowe, Rachel, Fischinger, Stephanie, de St Aubin, Michael, Siddiqui, Sameed M., Dayal, Diana, Loesche, Michael A., Rhee, Justin, Beger, Samuel, Hu, Yiyuan, Gluck, Matthew J., Mormann, Benjamin, Hasdianda, Mohammad A., Musk, Elon R., Alter, Galit, Menon, Anil S., Nilles, Eric J., Kucharski, Adam J., Lei, Jiayao, Funk, Sebastian, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Gimma, Amy, Nightingale, Emily S., Medley, Graham, Abbott, Sam, Krauer, Fabienne, Davies, Nicholas G., Jit, Mark, Endo, Akira, Brady, Oliver, Foss, Anna M., Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond, Jombart, Thibaut, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Eggo, Rosalind M., Liu, Yang, Knight, Gwenan M., Pearson, Carl A.B., Abbas, Kaja, Atkins, Katherine E., Clifford, Samuel, Koltai, Mihaly, Jafari, Yalda, Tully, Damien C., Jarvis, Christopher I., O'Reilly, Kathleen, Bosse, Nikos I., Prem, Kiesha, Quilty, Billy J., Procter, Simon R., Barnard, Rosanna C., Waites, William, McCarthy, Ciara, Munday, James D., Hodgson, David, Edmunds, W. John, Rosello, Alicia, Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian, Gibbs, Hamish P., Flasche, Stefan, Russell, Timothy W., Meakin, Sophie R., Hellewell, Joel, Waterlow, Naomi R., Quaife, Matthew, Sandmann, Frank G., and Barcelona Supercomputing Center
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Adult ,Time Factors ,Adolescent ,Long-term epidemic dynamics ,Medizin ,Antibodies, Viral ,Polymerase Chain Reaction ,COVID-19 (Malaltia) ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,COVID-19 Serological Testing ,Young Adult ,COVID-19 (Disease) ,Seroepidemiologic Studies ,Humans ,Prospective Studies ,Workplace ,Aged ,General Immunology and Microbiology ,PCR (Biochemistry) ,SARS-CoV-2 ,General Neuroscience ,Immunity ,COVID-19 ,Odds ratio ,Middle Aged ,United States ,Serology ,Logistic Models ,COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing ,Reinfection ,Ciències de la salut::Medicina::Medicina comunitària i salut pública [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences - Abstract
dentifying the potential for SARS-CoV-2 reinfection is crucial for understanding possible long-term epidemic dynamics. We analysed longitudinal PCR and serological testing data from a prospective cohort of 4,411 United States employees in 4 states between April 2020 and February 2021. We conducted a multivariable logistic regression investigating the association between baseline serological status and subsequent PCR test result in order to calculate an odds ratio for reinfection. We estimated an odds ratio for reinfection ranging from 0.14 (95% CI: 0.019 to 0.63) to 0.28 (95% CI: 0.05 to 1.1), implying that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at baseline is associated with around 72% to 86% reduced odds of a subsequent PCR positive test based on our point estimates. This suggests that primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 provides protection against reinfection in the majority of individuals, at least over a 6-month time period. We also highlight 2 major sources of bias and uncertainty to be considered when estimating the relative risk of reinfection, confounders and the choice of baseline time point, and show how to account for both in reinfection analysis. The authors received funding from the following sources: EF was funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/N013638/1); AJK was supported by Wellcome Trust (206250/Z/17/Z) and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR200908); RL was funded by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship (https://royalsociety.org). EN was supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U01 U01GH002238). AM was supported by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health through NASA Cooperative Agreement (https://www.nasa.gov/hrp/tri; NNX16AO69A). GA was supported by the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness (https://masscpr.hms.harvard.edu/; MassCPR), the National Institutes of Health (3R37AI080289-11S1, R01AI146785, U19AI42790-01, U19AI135995-02, 1U01CA260476-01) and the Musk Foundation (http://www.muskfoundation.org/). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. "Article signat per 18 autors/es: Emilie Finch ,Rachel Lowe,Stephanie Fischinger,Michael de St Aubin,Sameed M. Siddiqui,Diana Dayal,Michael A. Loesche,Justin Rhee,Samuel Beger,Yiyuan Hu,Matthew J. Gluck,Benjamin Mormann,Mohammad A. Hasdianda,Elon R. Musk,Galit Alter,Anil S. Menon ,Eric J. Nilles ,Adam J. Kucharski ,on behalf of the CMMID COVID-19 working group and the SpaceX COVID-19 Cohort Collaborative"
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- 2022
8. The Cost-Effectiveness of Herpes Simplex Virus-2 Suppressive Therapy With Daily Aciclovir for Delaying HIV Disease Progression Among HIV-1 -Infected Women in South Africa
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Vickerman, Peter, Devine, Angela, Foss, Anna M., Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead, Mayaud, Philippe, and Meyer-Rath, Gesine
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- 2011
9. In Pursuit of the ‘Holy Grail’: Staff Perceptions of Creativity and Innovation
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Foss, Anna M. and Locke, Lorraine
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LB2300 - Abstract
Context and Objectives\ud Debate about conceptual understandings and practical applications of creativity and innovation into learning and teaching practice is long standing. Our empirical research aimed to explore how these concepts were understood by staff working in UK higher education (HE) settings and the implications for informing quality improvements. Our goal was to enhance knowledge, skills and understandings within our own context, alongside offering suggestions for HE institutions elsewhere.\ud \ud Methods\ud We conducted thematic analysis of qualitative data collected via audio-recordings of workshop break-out groups at two learning and teaching conferences, and positioned our findings within the broader international literature on creativity and innovation.\ud \ud Results\ud We identified four interconnected themes: (i) how creativity and innovation are understood, (ii) problems with claiming work as creative or innovative, (iii) a practical skills deficit, and (iv) a nuanced relationship between their meanings and uses in different disciplinary contexts.\ud \ud Discussion and Conclusions\ud We have shown that creativity and innovation have been defined as both products and processes. These particular findings concur with the broader research on these topics across different international settings and disciplines. Activities must be implemented that facilitate discussion about the meaning of these concepts and the emotional impact of value judgements while building awareness, confidence and understandings of how and when students are being creative and innovative. Staff working in other HE institutions around the world may like to reflect on whether these recommendations have relevance in their own contexts, perhaps exploring more rigorously using our proposed methodology.
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- 2021
10. Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools
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Endo (遠藤彰), Akira, Uchida (内田満夫), Mitsuo, Liu (刘扬), Yang, Atkins, Katherine E., Kucharski, Adam J., Funk, Sebastian, Abbas, Kaja, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Bosse, Nikos I, Waterlow, Naomi R, Tully, Damien C, Meakin, Sophie R, Quaife, Matthew, Russell, Timothy W, Jit, Mark, Foss, Anna M, Rosello, Alicia, Quilty, Billy J, Prem, Kiesha, Knight, Gwenan M, Abbott, Sam, Klepac, Petra, Brady, Oliver, Pearson, Carl A B, Medley, Graham, Clifford, Samuel, Jarvis, Christopher I, Munday, James D, Sandmann, Frank G, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Jombart, Thibaut, Hellewell, Joel, Gibbs, Hamish P, Barnard, Rosanna C, Eggo, Rosalind M, Gimma, Amy, Williams, Jack, Davies, Nicholas G., Nightingale, Emily S, Procter, Simon R, Edmunds, W John, Showering, Alicia, Lowe, Rachel, Sherratt, Katharine, Villabona-Arenas, C Julian, Simons, David, Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond, and Flasche, Stefan
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Multidisciplinary ,Schools ,school ,class size ,COVID-19 ,Disease Outbreaks ,Influenza, Human/epidemiology ,Influenza, Human ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,social network ,Pandemics/prevention & control ,Child ,influenza ,Pandemics ,Respiratory Tract Infections ,mathematical model ,COVID-19/epidemiology ,Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control - Abstract
The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emphasized the need for evidence-based strategies for the safe operation of schools during pandemics that balance infection risk with the society's responsibility of allowing children to attend school. Due to limited empirical data, existing analyses assessing school-based interventions in pandemic situations often impose strong assumptions, for example, on the relationship between class size and transmission risk, which could bias the estimated effect of interventions, such as split classes and staggered attendance. To fill this gap in school outbreak studies, we parameterized an individual-based model that accounts for heterogeneous contact rates within and between classes and grades to a multischool outbreak data of influenza. We then simulated school outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases of ongoing threat (i.e., COVID-19) and potential threat (i.e., pandemic influenza) under a variety of interventions (changing class structures, symptom screening, regular testing, cohorting, and responsive class closures). Our results suggest that interventions changing class structures (e.g., reduced class sizes) may not be effective in reducing the risk of major school outbreaks upon introduction of a case and that other precautionary measures (e.g., screening and isolation) need to be employed. Class-level closures in response to detection of a case were also suggested to be effective in reducing the size of an outbreak., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(37), art. no. e2203019119; 2022
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- 2022
11. Condoms And Prevention Of Hiv: Are Essential And Effective, But Additional Methods Are Also Needed
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Foss, Anna M., Watts, Charlotte H., Vickerman, Peter, and Heise, Lori
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- 2004
12. The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant
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Hodgson, David, Flasche, Stefan, Jit, Mark, Kucharski, Adam J, Abbott, Sam, Edmunds, W John, Davies, Nicholas G., Eggo, Rosalind M, Medley, Graham, Lei, Jiayao, Liu, Yang, Tully, Damien C, McCarthy, Ciara V, Mee, Paul, Endo, Akira, Hellewell, Joel, Funk, Sebastian, Jombart, Thibaut, Jafari, Yalda, Brady, Oliver, Prem, Kiesha, Krauer, Fabienne, Koltai, Mihaly, Waterlow, Naomi R, Russell, Timothy W, Meakin, Sophie R, O'Reilly, Kathleen, Bosse, Nikos I, Waites, William, Nightingale, Emily S, Lowe, Rachel, Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond, Atkins, Katherine E., Quilty, Billy J, Sandmann, Frank G, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Villabona-Arenas, C Julian, Gibbs, Hamish P, Munday, James D, Foss, Anna M, Gimma, Amy, Pearson, Carl A B, Barnard, Rosanna C, Quaife, Matthew, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Rosello, Alicia, Pung, Rachael, Jarvis, Christopher I, Finch, Emilie, Abbas, Kaja, Clifford, Samuel, Knight, Gwenan M, and Procter, Simon R
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0301 basic medicine ,Immunity, Herd ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,Age structure ,Epidemiology ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Biology ,Virus ,Herd immunity ,03 medical and health sciences ,Herd Immunity ,0302 clinical medicine ,Immunity ,Virology ,Seroprevalence ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Child ,seroprevalence ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Vaccination ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,COVID-19 ,biochemical phenomena, metabolism, and nutrition ,030104 developmental biology ,Immunology ,Rapid Communication - Abstract
We assess the feasibility of reaching the herd immunity threshold against SARS-CoV-2 through vaccination, considering vaccine effectiveness (VE), transmissibility of the virus and the level of pre-existing immunity in populations, as well as their age structure. If highly transmissible variants of concern become dominant in areas with low levels of naturally-acquired immunity and/or in populations with large proportions of < 15 year-olds, control of infection without non-pharmaceutical interventions may only be possible with a VE ≥ 80%, and coverage extended to children. Initial reports of vaccine effectiveness against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), have suggested a substantial reduction of the risk of infection [1]. Nevertheless, with the emergence of more transmissible variants such as B.1.1.7 [2], how large-scale immunisation programmes against SARS-CoV-2 will perform is currently unclear. This study assesses the potential of COVID-19 vaccination to generate herd immunity and takes into account vaccine effectiveness, naturally-acquired immunity and achievable vaccination coverage (depending on the population age structure), as well as two transmissibility scenarios ((i) with pre-B.1.1.7, and (ii) with exclusively B.1.1.7 variants).
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- 2021
13. The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation
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Sandmann, Frank G, primary, Davies, Nicholas G, additional, Vassall, Anna, additional, Edmunds, W John, additional, Jit, Mark, additional, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, additional, Villabona-Arenas, C Julian, additional, Nightingale, Emily S, additional, Showering, Alicia, additional, Knight, Gwenan M, additional, Sherratt, Katharine, additional, Liu, Yang, additional, Abbas, Kaja, additional, Funk, Sebastian, additional, Endo, Akira, additional, Hellewell, Joel, additional, Rosello, Alicia, additional, Lowe, Rachel, additional, Quaife, Matthew, additional, Gimma, Amy, additional, Brady, Oliver, additional, Williams, Jack, additional, Procter, Simon R, additional, Eggo, Rosalind M, additional, Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond, additional, Munday, James D, additional, Barnard, Rosanna C, additional, Gore-Langton, Georgia R, additional, Bosse, Nikos I, additional, Waterlow, Naomi R, additional, Diamond, Charlie, additional, Russell, Timothy W, additional, Medley, Graham, additional, Flasche, Stefan, additional, Atkins, Katherine E, additional, Prem, Kiesha, additional, Simons, David, additional, Auzenbergs, Megan, additional, Tully, Damien C, additional, Jarvis, Christopher I, additional, van Zandvoort, Kevin, additional, Abbott, Sam, additional, Pearson, Carl A B, additional, Jombart, Thibaut, additional, Meakin, Sophie R, additional, Foss, Anna M, additional, Kucharski, Adam J, additional, Quilty, Billy J, additional, Gibbs, Hamish P, additional, Clifford, Samuel, additional, and Klepac, Petra, additional
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- 2021
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14. Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England
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Munday, James D., Sherratt, Katharine, Meakin, Sophie, Endo, Akira, Pearson, Carl A. B., Hellewell, Joel, Abbott, Sam, Bosse, Nikos I., Eggo, Rosalind M., Simons, David, O’Reilly, Kathleen, Russell, Timothy W., Lowe, Rachel, Leclerc, Quentin J., Emery, Jon C., Klepac, Petra, Nightingale, Emily S., Quaife, Matthew, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Knight, Gwenan M., Jombart, Thibaut, Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian, Rees, Eleanor M., Diamond, Charlie, Auzenbergs, Megan, Medley, Graham, Foss, Anna M., Gore-Langton, Georgia R., Deol, Arminder K., Jit, Mark, Gibbs, Hamish P., Procter, Simon R., Rosello, Alicia, Jarvis, Christopher I., Liu, Yang, Houben, Rein M. G. J., Hué, Stéphane, Clifford, Samuel, Quilty, Billy J., Gimma, Amy, Tully, Damien C., Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Prem, Kiesha, Atkins, Katherine E., Wallinga, Jacco, Edmunds, W. John, van Hoek, Albert Jan, and Funk, Sebastian
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0301 basic medicine ,Economic growth ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Adolescent ,genetic structures ,Epidemiology ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Science ,education ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Network structure ,Risk Assessment ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Article ,law.invention ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,law ,Risk Factors ,Pandemic ,Disease Transmission, Infectious ,Humans ,Computational models ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control ,England/epidemiology ,Child ,Pandemics ,COVID-19/epidemiology ,Family Characteristics ,Multidisciplinary ,Schools ,SARS-CoV-2 ,SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ,COVID-19 ,General Chemistry ,Schools/organization & administration ,030104 developmental biology ,Transmission (mechanics) ,England ,Viral infection ,Child, Preschool ,Business ,Risk assessment ,Disease transmission - Abstract
In early 2020 many countries closed schools to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Since then, governments have sought to relax the closures, engendering a need to understand associated risks. Using address records, we construct a network of schools in England connected through pupils who share households. We evaluate the risk of transmission between schools under different reopening scenarios. We show that whilst reopening select year-groups causes low risk of large-scale transmission, reopening secondary schools could result in outbreaks affecting up to 2.5 million households if unmitigated, highlighting the importance of careful monitoring and within-school infection control to avoid further school closures or other restrictions., Many countries have closed schools as part of their COVID-19 response. Here, the authors model SARS-CoV-2 transmission on a network of schools and households in England, and find that risk of transmission between schools is lower if primary schools are open than if secondary schools are open.
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- 2021
15. Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation from international travellers: modelling estimations for the United Kingdom, July 2020
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Clifford, Samuel, Quilty, Billy J, Russell, Timothy W, Liu, Yang, Chan, Yung-Wai D, Pearson, Carl A B, Eggo, Rosalind M, Endo, Akira, Flasche, Stefan, Edmunds, W John, Sherratt, Katharine, Hué, Stéphane, Quaife, Matthew, Bosse, Nikos I, Medley, Graham, Auzenbergs, Megan, Kucharski, Adam J, Davies, Nicholas G, Brady, Oliver, Meakin, Sophie R, Houben, Rein M G J, Atkins, Katherine E, Prem, Kiesha, Villabona-Arenas, C Julian, Gibbs, Hamish P, Jombart, Thibaut, Diamond, Charlie, Klepac, Petra, Deol, Arminder K, Lowe, Rachel, Rudge, James W, Jit, Mark, Funk, Sebastian, Knight, Gwenan M., Procter, Simon R., Simons, David, Leclerc, Quentin J, Munday, James D, Gimma, Amy, Gore-Langton, Georgia R, Jarvis, Christopher I, Emery, Jon C, Foss, Anna M, O'Reilly, Kathleen, Hellewell, Joel, Nightingale, Emily S, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Tully, Damien C, Abbott, Sam, Abbas, Kaja, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, and Rosello, Alicia
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COVID-19 Vaccines ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Epidemiology ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,law.invention ,Pcr test ,law ,Virology ,Environmental health ,Quarantine ,Pandemic ,media_common.cataloged_instance ,Medicine ,Humans ,European union ,Pandemics ,media_common ,business.industry ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Research ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,COVID-19 ,PCR testing ,United Kingdom ,Transmission (mechanics) ,business ,travel screening - Abstract
Background To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks from international air travellers, many countries implemented a combination of up to 14 days of self-quarantine upon arrival plus PCR testing in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Aim To assess the effectiveness of quarantine and testing of international travellers to reduce risk of onward SARS-CoV-2 transmission into a destination country in the pre-COVID-19 vaccination era. Methods We used a simulation model of air travellers arriving in the United Kingdom from the European Union or the United States, incorporating timing of infection stages while varying quarantine duration and timing and number of PCR tests. Results Quarantine upon arrival with a PCR test on day 7 plus a 1-day delay for results can reduce the number of infectious arriving travellers released into the community by a median 94% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 89–98) compared with a no quarantine/no test scenario. This reduction is similar to that achieved by a 14-day quarantine period (median > 99%; 95% UI: 98–100). Even shorter quarantine periods can prevent a substantial amount of transmission; all strategies in which travellers spend at least 5 days (mean incubation period) in quarantine and have at least one negative test before release are highly effective (median reduction 89%; 95% UI: 83–95)). Conclusion The effect of different screening strategies impacts asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals differently. The choice of an optimal quarantine and testing strategy for unvaccinated air travellers may vary based on the number of possible imported infections relative to domestic incidence.
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- 2021
16. Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes?
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Chalabi, Zaid and Foss, Anna M
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Recently, there has been a strong interest in the climate emergency and the human health impacts of climate change. Although estimates have been quoted, the modeling methods used have either been simplistic or opaque, making it difficult for policy makers to have confidence in these estimates. Providing central estimates of health impacts, without any quantification of their uncertainty, is deficient because such an approach does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in extreme environmental exposures associated with spiraling climate change and related health impacts. Furthermore, presenting only the uncertainty bounds around central estimates, without information on how the uncertainty in each of the model parameters and assumptions contribute to the total uncertainty, is insufficient because this approach hides those parameters and assumptions which contribute most to the total uncertainty. We propose a framework for calculating the catastrophic human health impacts of spiraling climate change and the associated uncertainties. Our framework comprises three building blocks: (A) a climate model to simulate the environmental exposure extremes of spiraling climate change; (B) a health impact model which estimates the health burdens of the extremes of environmental exposures; and (C) an analytical mathematical method which characterizes the uncertainty in (A) and (B), propagates the uncertainty in-between and through these models, and attributes the proportion of uncertainty in the health outcomes to model assumptions and parameter values. Once applied, our framework can be of significant value to policy makers because it handles uncertainty transparently while taking into account the complex interactions between climate and human health.
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- 2020
17. Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic
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Gibbs, Hamish, Liu, Yang, Pearson, Carl A. B., Jarvis, Christopher I., Grundy, Chris, Quilty, Billy J., Diamond, Charlie, Simons, David, Gimma, Amy, Leclerc, Quentin J., Auzenbergs, Megan, Lowe, Rachel, O’Reilly, Kathleen, Quaife, Matthew, Hellewell, Joel, Knight, Gwenan M., Jombart, Thibaut, Klepac, Petra, Procter, Simon R., Deol, Arminder K., Rees, Eleanor M., Flasche, Stefan, Kucharski, Adam J., Abbott, Sam, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Endo, Akira, Medley, Graham, Munday, James D., Meakin, Sophie R., Bosse, Nikos I., Edmunds, W. John, Davies, Nicholas G., Prem, Kiesha, Hué, Stéphane, Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian, Nightingale, Emily S., Houben, Rein M. G. J., Foss, Anna M., Tully, Damien C., Emery, Jon C., van Zandvoort, Kevin, Atkins, Katherine E., Rosello, Alicia, Funk, Sebastian, Jit, Mark, Clifford, Samuel, Russell, Timothy W., and Eggo, Rosalind M.
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0301 basic medicine ,Time Factors ,Epidemiology ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Transportation ,0302 clinical medicine ,Health care ,Pandemic ,Computational models ,030212 general & internal medicine ,lcsh:Science ,Holidays ,Travel ,0303 health sciences ,Multidisciplinary ,Geography ,Public Health ,Coronavirus Infections ,Mainland China ,China ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Science ,Pneumonia, Viral ,Policy and public health in microbiology ,Article ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Betacoronavirus ,03 medical and health sciences ,Development economics ,medicine ,Humans ,Pandemics ,030304 developmental biology ,Population Density ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,Public health ,COVID-19 ,General Chemistry ,030104 developmental biology ,13. Climate action ,lcsh:Q ,Demographic economics ,business ,Delivery of Health Care ,human activities - Abstract
Understanding changes in human mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for assessing the impacts of travel restrictions designed to reduce disease spread. Here, relying on data from mainland China, we investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of human mobility between 1st January and 1st March 2020, and discuss their public health implications. An outbound travel surge from Wuhan before travel restrictions were implemented was also observed across China due to the Lunar New Year, indicating that holiday travel may have played a larger role in mobility changes compared to impending travel restrictions. Holiday travel also shifted healthcare pressure related to COVID-19 towards locations with lower healthcare capacity. Network analyses showed no sign of major changes in the transportation network after Lunar New Year. Changes observed were temporary and did not lead to structural reorganisation of the transportation network during the study period., COVID-19-related travel restrictions were imposed in China around the same time as major annual holiday migrations, with unknown combined impacts on mobility patterns. Here, the authors show that restructuring of the travel network in response to restrictions was temporary, whilst holiday-related travel increased pressure on healthcare services with lower capacity.
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- 2020
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18. Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies
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Firth, Josh A., Hellewell, Joel, Klepac, Petra, Kissler, Stephen, Jit, Mark, Atkins, Katherine E., Clifford, Samuel, Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian, Meakin, Sophie R., Diamond, Charlie, Bosse, Nikos I., Munday, James D., Prem, Kiesha, Foss, Anna M., Nightingale, Emily S., Zandvoort, Kevin van, Davies, Nicholas G., Gibbs, Hamish P., Medley, Graham, Gimma, Amy, Flasche, Stefan, Simons, David, Auzenbergs, Megan, Russell, Timothy W., Quilty, Billy J., Rees, Eleanor M., Leclerc, Quentin J., Edmunds, W. John, Funk, Sebastian, Houben, Rein M. G. J., Knight, Gwenan M., Abbott, Sam, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Lowe, Rachel, Tully, Damien C., Procter, Simon R., Jarvis, Christopher I., Endo, Akira, O’Reilly, Kathleen, Emery, Jon C., Jombart, Thibaut, Rosello, Alicia, Deol, Arminder K., Quaife, Matthew, Hué, Stéphane, Liu, Yang, Eggo, Rosalind M., Pearson, Carl A. B., Kucharski, Adam J., and Spurgin, Lewis G.
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Social network ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,business.industry ,Computer science ,Distancing ,Control (management) ,General Medicine ,Tracing ,Computer security ,computer.software_genre ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,law.invention ,03 medical and health sciences ,030104 developmental biology ,0302 clinical medicine ,Transmission (mechanics) ,law ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Isolation (database systems) ,business ,computer ,Contact tracing - Abstract
Case isolation and contact tracing can contribute to the control of COVID-19 outbreaks1,2. However, it remains unclear how real-world social networks could influence the effectiveness and efficiency of such approaches. To address this issue, we simulated control strategies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a real-world social network generated from high-resolution GPS data that were gathered in the course of a citizen-science experiment3,4. We found that tracing the contacts of contacts reduced the size of simulated outbreaks more than tracing of only contacts, but this strategy also resulted in almost half of the local population being quarantined at a single point in time. Testing and releasing non-infectious individuals from quarantine led to increases in outbreak size, suggesting that contact tracing and quarantine might be most effective as a 'local lockdown' strategy when contact rates are high. Finally, we estimated that combining physical distancing with contact tracing could enable epidemic control while reducing the number of quarantined individuals. Our findings suggest that targeted tracing and quarantine strategies would be most efficient when combined with other control measures such as physical distancing.
- Published
- 2020
19. Calibrating Models in Economic Evaluation: A Seven-Step Approach
- Author
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Vanni, Tazio, Karnon, Jonathan, Madan, Jason, White, Richard G., Edmunds, W. John, Foss, Anna M., and Legood, Rosa
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. Dynamic Modeling of Herpes Simplex Virus Type-2 (HSV-2) Transmission: Issues in Structural Uncertainty
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Foss, Anna M., Vickerman, Peter T., Chalabi, Zaid, Mayaud, Philippe, Alary, Michel, and Watts, Charlotte H.
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study
- Author
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Quilty, Billy J, primary, Clifford, Samuel, additional, Hellewell, Joel, additional, Russell, Timothy W, additional, Kucharski, Adam J, additional, Flasche, Stefan, additional, Edmunds, W John, additional, Atkins, Katherine E, additional, Foss, Anna M, additional, Waterlow, Naomi R, additional, Abbas, Kaja, additional, Lowe, Rachel, additional, Pearson, Carl A B, additional, Funk, Sebastian, additional, Rosello, Alicia, additional, Knight, Gwenan M, additional, Bosse, Nikos I, additional, Procter, Simon R, additional, Gore-Langton, Georgia R, additional, Showering, Alicia, additional, Munday, James D, additional, Sherratt, Katharine, additional, Jombart, Thibaut, additional, Nightingale, Emily S, additional, Liu, Yang, additional, Jarvis, Christopher I, additional, Medley, Graham, additional, Brady, Oliver, additional, Gibbs, Hamish P, additional, Simons, David, additional, Williams, Jack, additional, Tully, Damien C, additional, Meakin, Sophie R, additional, Zandvoort, Kevin, additional, Sun, Fiona Y, additional, Jit, Mark, additional, Klepac, Petra, additional, Quaife, Matthew, additional, Eggo, Rosalind M, additional, Sandmann, Frank G, additional, Endo, Akira, additional, Prem, Kiesha, additional, Abbott, Sam, additional, Barnard, Rosanna, additional, Chan, Yung-Wai D, additional, Auzenbergs, Megan, additional, Gimma, Amy, additional, Villabona-Arenas, C Julian, additional, and Davies, Nicholas G, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. Can the UNAIDS modes of transmission model be improved?: a comparison of the original and revised model projections using data from a setting in west Africa
- Author
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Prudden, Holly J., Watts, Charlotte H., Vickerman, Peter, Bobrova, Natalia, Heise, Lori, Ogungbemi, Michael K., Momah, Amaka, Blanchard, James F., and Foss, Anna M.
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. A comparative analysis of cervical cancer prevention between Nigeria and Nordic countries that have experienced a decline in cervical cancer incidence
- Author
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Anyasi, Helen I and Foss, Anna M
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: A modelling analysis carried out in 2014 suggested that, without cervical cancer screening programmes, the incidence of cervical cancer in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden would have been as high as that in some low- and middle-income countries. We compare programme strategies between Nigeria and these Nordic countries and develop translatable recommendations. METHODS: A literature review using a systematic approach through Medline, Popline, Global Health, CINAHL PLUS, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Google Scholar, Africa Wide and WHO databases was conducted. RESULTS: Fifteen journal articles and two grey literature reports met our criteria. Six descriptive studies from Nigeria noted that services in Nigeria were mainly provided in urban secondary/tertiary facilities and that uptake was low even where screening was free. Trials in Nigeria and Sweden noted that subsidies and free programmes alone did not improve uptake; a Danish trial demonstrated that reminders and invitations issued by general practitioners improved participation. CONCLUSION: Free screening programmes are important but should also consider incentivisation of treatment when needed and demand creation among health workers. Additionally, effective monitoring and evaluation of programme data are key to improving and maintaining quality. More broadly, we suggest that Nigeria can build success through stakeholder-led implementation of well-defined policies with national consensus to ensure coordination and sustainability.
- Published
- 2020
24. The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya
- Author
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Mburu, C. N., Ojal, J., Chebet, R., Akech, D., Karia, B., Tuju, J., Sigilai, A., Abbas, K., Jit, M., Funk, S., Smits, G., van Gageldonk, P. G. M., van der Klis, F. R. M., Tabu, C., Nokes, D. J., Munday, James D., Pearson, Carl A. B., Procter, Simon R., Brady, Oliver, Simons, David, Lowe, Rachel, Edmunds, W. John, Sherratt, Katharine, Barnard, Rosanna C., Rosello, Alicia, Kucharski, Adam J., Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Bosse, Nikos I., Klepac, Petra, Liu, Yang, Prem, Kiesha, Knight, Gwenan M., Endo, Akira, Abbott, Sam, Nightingale, Emily S., Jombart, Thibaut, Emery, Jon C., Gore-Langton, Georgia R., Hellewell, Joel, Rudge, James W., Gibbs, Hamish P., O’Reilly, Kathleen, van Zandvoort, Kevin, Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond, Tully, Damien C., Foss, Anna M., Jarvis, Christopher I., Atkins, Katherine E., Clifford, Samuel, Quaife, Matthew, Quilty, Billy J., Houben, Rein M. G. J., Eggo, Rosalind M., Medley, Graham, Meakin, Sophie R., Russell, Timothy W., Davies, Nicholas G., Diamond, Charlie, Deol, Arminder K., Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian, Hué, Stéphane, Auzenbergs, Megan, Leclerc, Quentin J., Gimma, Amy, Scott, JAG, Flasche, S., Adetifa, IMO, LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, and Group, LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 Working
- Subjects
Male ,COVID-19 ,Supplementary immunisation activities ,Vaccination coverage ,Outbreak ,Measles ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Adolescent ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,RJ ,Measles Vaccine ,030231 tropical medicine ,lcsh:Medicine ,Measles outbreak ,Disease Outbreaks ,Herd immunity ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Environmental health ,Epidemiology ,Pandemic ,medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Child ,Immunization Programs ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,lcsh:R ,Infant, Newborn ,Infant ,General Medicine ,medicine.disease ,Kenya ,Increased risk ,Child, Preschool ,Female ,business ,RA ,Research Article - Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. Methods Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. Results In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8–54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19–54), 46% (30–59), and 54% (43–64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25–56), 54% (43–63), and 67% (59–72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. Conclusion While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020
- Author
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Pearson, Carl Ab, Van Schalkwyk, Cari, Foss, Anna M, O'Reilly, Kathleen M, SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team, CMMID COVID-19 working group, and Pulliam, Juliet Rc
- Abstract
For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.
- Published
- 2020
26. Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa
- Author
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Pearson, Carl Andrew, Van Schalkwyk, Cari, Foss, Anna M, OReilly, Kathleen M, and Pulliam, Juliet R C
- Abstract
For African countries currently reporting COVID-19 cases, we estimate when they will report more than 1 000 and 10 000 cases. Assuming current trends, more than 80% are likely to exceed 1 000 cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10 000 a few weeks later.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study
- Author
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Kucharski, Adam J, primary, Klepac, Petra, additional, Conlan, Andrew J K, additional, Kissler, Stephen M, additional, Tang, Maria L, additional, Fry, Hannah, additional, Gog, Julia R, additional, Edmunds, W John, additional, Emery, Jon C, additional, Medley, Graham, additional, Munday, James D, additional, Russell, Timothy W, additional, Leclerc, Quentin J, additional, Diamond, Charlie, additional, Procter, Simon R, additional, Gimma, Amy, additional, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, additional, Gibbs, Hamish P, additional, Rosello, Alicia, additional, van Zandvoort, Kevin, additional, Hué, Stéphane, additional, Meakin, Sophie R, additional, Deol, Arminder K, additional, Knight, Gwen, additional, Jombart, Thibaut, additional, Foss, Anna M, additional, Bosse, Nikos I, additional, Atkins, Katherine E, additional, Quilty, Billy J, additional, Lowe, Rachel, additional, Prem, Kiesha, additional, Flasche, Stefan, additional, Pearson, Carl A B, additional, Houben, Rein M G J, additional, Nightingale, Emily S, additional, Endo, Akira, additional, Tully, Damien C, additional, Liu, Yang, additional, Villabona-Arenas, Julian, additional, O'Reilly, Kathleen, additional, Funk, Sebastian, additional, Eggo, Rosalind M, additional, Jit, Mark, additional, Rees, Eleanor M, additional, Hellewell, Joel, additional, Clifford, Samuel, additional, Jarvis, Christopher I, additional, Abbott, Sam, additional, Auzenbergs, Megan, additional, Davies, Nicholas G, additional, and Simons, David, additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
28. Attaining realistic and substantial reductions in HIV incidence: model projections of combining microbicide and male circumcision interventions in rural Uganda
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Cox, Andrew P, Foss, Anna M, Shafer, Leigh Anne, Nsubuga, Rebecca N, Vickerman, Peter, Hayes, Richard J, Watts, Charlotte, and White, Richard G
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. Modelling the interactions between herpes simplex virus type 2 and HIV: implications for the HIV epidemic in southern India
- Author
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Foss, Anna M, Vickerman, Peter T, Mayaud, Philippe, Weiss, Helen A, Ramesh, B M, Reza-Paul, Sushena, Washington, Reynold, Blanchard, James, Moses, Stephen, Lowndes, Catherine M, Alary, Michel, and Watts, Charlotte H
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. A comparative analysis of cervical cancer prevention between Nigeria and Nordic countries that have experienced a decline in cervical cancer incidence
- Author
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Anyasi, Helen I, primary and Foss, Anna M, additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. Is modelling complexity always needed? Insights from modelling PrEP introduction in South Africa
- Author
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Grant, Hannah, primary, Foss, Anna M, additional, Watts, Charlotte, additional, Medley, Graham F, additional, and Mukandavire, Zindoga, additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Using data from ‘visible’ populations to estimate the size and importance of ‘hidden’ populations in an epidemic: A modelling technique
- Author
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Foss, Anna M., primary, Prudden, Holly J., additional, Mitchell, Kate M., additional, Pickles, Michael, additional, Washington, Reynold, additional, Phillips, Anna E., additional, Alary, Michel, additional, Boily, Marie-Claude, additional, Moses, Stephen, additional, Watts, Charlotte H., additional, and Vickerman, Peter T., additional
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. To what extent is the HIV epidemic in southern India driven by commercial sex? A modelling analysis
- Author
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Vickerman, Peter, Foss, Anna M, Pickles, Michael, Deering, Kathleen, Verma, Supriya, Eric Demers, Lowndes, Catherine M, Moses, Stephen, Alary, Michel, and Boily, Marie-Claude
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Interim modelling analysis to validate reported increases in condom use and assess HIV infections averted among female sex workers and clients in southern India following a targeted HIV prevention programme
- Author
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Pickles, Michael, Foss, Anna M, Vickerman, Peter, Deering, Kathleen, Verma, Supriya, Demers, Eric, Washington, Reynold, Ramesh, BM, Moses, Stephen, Blanchard, Jamie, Lowndes, Catherine M, Alary, Michel, Reza-Paul, Sushena, and Boily, Marie-Claude
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Sexual violence and conflict in Africa: prevalence and potential impact on HIV incidence
- Author
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Watts, Charlotte H., Foss, Anna M., Hossain, Mazeda, Zimmerman, Cathy, von Simson, Rachel, and Klot, Jennifer
- Subjects
Sex crimes -- Influence ,Sex crimes -- Research ,HIV infection -- Distribution ,HIV infection -- Demographic aspects ,HIV infection -- Research ,Company distribution practices ,Health - Published
- 2010
36. Remodelling core group theory: the role of sustaining populations in HIV transmission
- Author
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Watts, Charlotte, Zimmerman, Cathy, Foss, Anna M., Hossain, Mazeda, Cox, Andrew, and Vickerman, Peter
- Subjects
HIV infection -- Risk factors ,HIV infection -- Demographic aspects ,HIV infection -- Research ,Sex oriented businesses -- Influence ,Sex oriented businesses -- Health aspects ,Sex oriented businesses -- Research ,Health - Published
- 2010
37. Potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, India: a mathematical modelling study
- Author
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Mitchell, Kate M., Prudden, Holly J., Washington, Reynold, Isac, Shajy, Rajaram, Subramanian P., Foss, Anna M., Terris-Prestholt, Fern, Boily, Marie- Claude, and Vickerman, Peter
- Subjects
Working women -- Analysis -- Health aspects ,Prophylaxis -- Analysis ,HIV infections -- Prevention -- Care and treatment -- Analysis ,Sex oriented businesses -- Analysis -- Health aspects ,Health - Abstract
Introduction: In Bangalore, new HIV infections of female sex workers and men who have sex with men continue to occur, despite high condom use. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has high anti-HIV efficacy for men who have sex with men. PrEP demonstration projects are underway amongst Indian female sex workers. We estimated the impact and efficiency of prioritizing PrEP to female sex workers and/or men who have sex with men in Bangalore. Methods: A mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment for female sex workers, clients, men who have sex with men and low-risk groups was parameterized and fitted to Bangalore data. The proportion of transmission attributable (population attributable fraction) to commercial sex and sex between men was calculated. PrEP impact (infections averted, life-years gained) and efficiency (life-years gained/infections averted per 100 person-years on PrEP) were estimated for different levels of PrEP adherence, coverage and prioritization strategies (female sex workers, high-risk men who have sex with men, both female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men, or female sex workers with lower condom use), under current conditions and in a scenario with lower baseline condom use amongst key populations. Results: Population attributable fractions for commercial sex and sex between men have declined over time, and they are predicted to account for 19% of all new infections between 2016 and 2025. PrEP could prevent a substantial proportion of infections amongst female sex workers and men who have sex with men in this setting (23%/27% over 5/10 years, with 60% coverage and 50% adherence), which could avert 2.9%/4.3% of infections over 5/10 years in the whole Bangalore population. Impact and efficiency in the whole population was greater if female sex workers were prioritized. Efficiency increased, but impact decreased, if only female sex workers with lower condom use were given PrEP. Greater impact and efficiency was predicted for the scenario with lower condom use. Conclusions: PrEP could be beneficial for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, and give some benefits in the general population, especially in similar settings with lower condom use levels. Keywords: key population; high-risk group; prevention; targeting; prioritizing; focussed intervention; oral PrEP., Introduction India has a concentrated HIV epidemic. In Bangalore, as elsewhere in southern India, the highest HIV levels are found amongst female sex workers (FSWs; 8.0% prevalence 2009), FSWs' commercial [...]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Could the CARE–SHAKTI intervention for injecting drug users be maintaining the low HIV prevalence in Dhaka, Bangladesh?
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Foss, Anna M., Watts, Charlotte H., Vickerman, Peter, Azim, Tasnim, Guinness, Lorna, Ahmed, Munir, Rodericks, Andrea, and Jana, Smarajit
- Published
- 2007
39. Care should be taken when promoting microbicide use among sex workers who are able to use condoms consistently: response to Smith et al. (2005)
- Author
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Foss, Anna M, Watts, Charlotte H, Vickerman, Peter T, and Heise, Lori
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. A comparative analysis of cervical cancer prevention between Nigeria and Nordic countries that have experienced a decline in cervical cancer incidence.
- Author
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Anyasi, Helen I and Foss, Anna M
- Subjects
- *
CERVICAL cancer , *CANCER prevention , *MIDDLE-income countries , *COMPARATIVE studies , *GENERAL practitioners , *NON-communicable diseases - Abstract
Background A modelling analysis carried out in 2014 suggested that, without cervical cancer screening programmes, the incidence of cervical cancer in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden would have been as high as that in some low- and middle-income countries. We compare programme strategies between Nigeria and these Nordic countries and develop translatable recommendations. Methods A literature review using a systematic approach through Medline, Popline, Global Health, CINAHL PLUS, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Google Scholar, Africa Wide and WHO databases was conducted. Results Fifteen journal articles and two grey literature reports met our criteria. Six descriptive studies from Nigeria noted that services in Nigeria were mainly provided in urban secondary/tertiary facilities and that uptake was low even where screening was free. Trials in Nigeria and Sweden noted that subsidies and free programmes alone did not improve uptake; a Danish trial demonstrated that reminders and invitations issued by general practitioners improved participation. Conclusion Free screening programmes are important but should also consider incentivisation of treatment when needed and demand creation among health workers. Additionally, effective monitoring and evaluation of programme data are key to improving and maintaining quality. More broadly, we suggest that Nigeria can build success through stakeholder-led implementation of well-defined policies with national consensus to ensure coordination and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Shifts in condom use following microbicide introduction: should we be concerned?
- Author
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Foss, Anna M, Vickerman, Peter T, Heise, Lori, and Watts, Charlotte H
- Published
- 2003
42. Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7.
- Author
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Davies, Nicholas G., Jarvis, Christopher I., van Zandvoort, Kevin, Clifford, Samuel, Sun, Fiona Yueqian, Funk, Sebastian, Medley, Graham, Jafari, Yalda, Meakin, Sophie R., Lowe, Rachel, Quaife, Matthew, Waterlow, Naomi R., Eggo, Rosalind M., Lei, Jiayao, Koltai, Mihaly, Krauer, Fabienne, Tully, Damien C., Munday, James D., Showering, Alicia, and Foss, Anna M.
- Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant that was first detected in the UK in September 20201, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than pre-existing variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity2. Here we analyse a dataset that links 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 deaths associated with COVID-19 in England from 1 November 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because mutations in this lineage prevent PCR amplification of the spike (S) gene target (known as S gene target failure (SGTF)1). On the basis of 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% confidence interval, 39–72%) higher than in cases without SGTF after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, residence in a care home, the local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55–69-year-old man increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.8–1.0%) within 28 days of a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7 is 61% (42–82%) higher than with pre-existing variants. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.Analysis of community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 indicates that the B.1.1.7 variant is not only more transmissible than pre-existing variants, but may also cause more severe illness, and is associated with a higher risk of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of the HIV intervention programme amongst commercial sex workers in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
- Author
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Foss Anna M, Vadhvana Jagdish, Vannela Gangadhar, Watts Charlotte, Vickerman Peter, Guinness Lorna, Fung Isaac, Malodia Laxman, Gandhi Meena, and Jani Gaurang
- Subjects
Public aspects of medicine ,RA1-1270 - Abstract
Abstract Background Ahmedabad is an industrial city in Gujarat, India. In 2003, the HIV prevalence among commercial sex workers (CSWs) in Ahmedabad reached 13.0%. In response, the Jyoti Sangh HIV prevention programme for CSWs was initiated, which involves outreach, peer education, condom distribution, and free STD clinics. Two surveys were performed among CSWs in 1999 and 2003. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of the Jyoti Sangh HIV prevention programme. Methods A dynamic mathematical model was used with survey and intervention-specific data from Ahmedabad to estimate the HIV impact of the Jyoti Sangh project for the 51 months between the two CSW surveys. Uncertainty analysis was used to obtain different model fits to the HIV/STI epidemiological data, producing a range for the HIV impact of the project. Financial and economic costs of the intervention were estimated from the provider's perspective for the same time period. The cost per HIV-infection averted was estimated. Results Over 51 months, projections suggest that the intervention averted 624 and 5,131 HIV cases among the CSWs and their clients, respectively. This equates to a 54% and 51% decrease in the HIV infections that would have occurred among the CSWs and clients without the intervention. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts that the HIV prevalence amongst the CSWs in 2003 would have been 26%, almost twice that with the intervention. Cost per HIV infection averted, excluding and including peer educator economic costs, was USD 59 and USD 98 respectively. Conclusion This study demonstrated that targeted CSW interventions in India can be cost-effective, and highlights the importance of replicating this effort in other similar settings.
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020.
- Author
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Pearson, Carl A. B., Van Schalkwyk, Cari, Foss, Anna M., O'Reilly, Kathleen M., and Pulliam, Juliet R. C.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. Can mother-to-child transmission of HIV be eliminated without addressing the issue of stigma? Modeling the case for a setting in South Africa
- Author
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Prudden, Holly J., primary, Hamilton, Matthew, additional, Foss, Anna M., additional, Adams, Nicole Dzialowy, additional, Stockton, Melissa, additional, Black, Vivian, additional, and Nyblade, Laura, additional
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. Potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, India:A mathematical modelling study
- Author
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Mitchell, Kate M, Prudden, Holly J, Washington, Reynold, Isac, Shajy, Rajaram, Subramanian P, Foss, Anna M, Terris-Prestholt, Fern, Boily, Marie-Claude, Vickerman, Peter, and National Institutes of Health
- Subjects
oral PrEP ,Adult ,Male ,Sex Workers ,India ,HIV Infections ,1199 Other Medical And Health Sciences ,Models, Theoretical ,key population ,prioritizing ,prevention ,high-risk group ,Journal Article ,Humans ,Female ,Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis ,Homosexuality, Male ,focussed intervention ,targeting - Abstract
Introduction: In Bangalore, new HIV infections of female sex workers and men who have sex with men continue to occur, despite high condom use. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has high anti-HIV efficacy for men who have sex with men. PrEP demonstration projects are underway amongst Indian female sex workers. We estimated the impact and efficiency of prioritising PrEP to female sex workers and/or men who have sex with men in Bangalore.Methods: A mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment for female sex workers, clients, men who have sex with men and low-risk groups was parameterised and fitted to Bangalore data. The proportion of transmission attributable (population attributable fraction) to commercial sex and sex between men was calculated. PrEP impact (infections averted, life years gained) and efficiency (life years gained/infections averted per 100 person years onPrEP) were estimated for different levels of PrEP adherence, coverage and prioritisation strategies (female sex workers, high-risk men who have sex with men, both female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men, or female sex workers with lower condom use), under current conditions and in a scenario with lower baseline condom use amongst key populations.Results: Population attributable fractions for commercial sex and sex between men have declined over time, and they are predicted to account for 19% of all new infections between 2016 and 2025. PrEP could prevent a substantial proportion of infections amongst female sex workers and men who have sex with men in this setting (23%/27% over 5/10 years, with 60% coverage and 50% adherence), which could avert 2.9%/4.3% of infections over 5/10 years inthe whole Bangalore population. Impact and efficiency in the whole population was greater if female sex workers were prioritised. Efficiency increased, but impact decreased, if only female sex workers with lower condom use were given PrEP. Greater impact and efficiency was predicted for the scenario with lower condom use. Conclusions: PrEP could be beneficial for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, and give some benefits in the general population, especially in similar settings with lower condom use levels.
- Published
- 2016
47. Relationship between exposure to the Avahan intervention and levels of reported condom use among men who have sex with men in southern India
- Author
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Mitchell, Kate M, Foss, Anna M, Ramesh, Banadakoppa M, Washington, Reynold, Isac, Shajy, Prudden, Holly J, Deering, Kathleen N, Blanchard, James F, Moses, Stephen, Lowndes, Catherine M, Boily, Marie-Claude, Alary, Michel, Vickerman, Peter, and University of Manitoba
- Subjects
Bangalore ,Condom demonstration ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Condom use at last sex act ,Logistic regression ,virus diseases ,Key population ,Consistent condom use ,Cross-sectional study - Abstract
Background The Avahan intervention promotes consistent (100%) condom use amongst men who have sex with men in southern India. We assessed how condom use varies with intervention exposure for men who have sex with men in Bangalore. Methods Self-reported condom use and intervention exposure data were derived from a cross-sectional survey. Consistent condom use and condom use at last sex act with all, main, and casual male sex partners were assessed. Binary and continuous variables reflecting intervention exposure (including contact(s) with intervention staff, receiving condoms and seeing condom demonstrations) were used. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to assess the relationship between condom use with each type of partner and each exposure variable independently, controlling for socio-demographic and behavioural factors associated with condom use or intervention exposure. Results Condom use with all partners was higher among those who had ever been contacted by, received condoms from, or seen a condom demonstration by intervention staff (adjusted odds ratio >2, p
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- 2014
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48. Corrigendum to “Quantifying uncertainty in health impact assessment: A case-study example on indoor housing ventilation” [Environ Int 2014, 62C:95-103]
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Mesa-Frias, Marco, primary, Chalabi, Zaid, additional, and Foss, Anna M., additional
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- 2014
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49. International Scientific Collaboration in HIV and HPV: A Network Analysis
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Vanni, Tazio, primary, Mesa-Frias, Marco, additional, Sanchez-Garcia, Ruben, additional, Roesler, Rafael, additional, Schwartsmann, Gilberto, additional, Goldani, Marcelo Z., additional, and Foss, Anna M., additional
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- 2014
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50. Cost-effectiveness of tenofovir gel in urban South Africa: model projections of HIV impact and threshold product prices
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Terris-Prestholt, Fern, primary, Foss, Anna M, additional, Cox, Andrew P, additional, Heise, Lori, additional, Meyer-Rath, Gesine, additional, Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead, additional, Mertenskoetter, Thomas, additional, Rees, Helen, additional, Vickerman, Peter, additional, and Watts, Charlotte H, additional
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- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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