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Fishing vessels are known to have a fatality rate from accidents nearly 100 times higher than that of merchant ships. However, since most cases are resolved internally without maritime tribunals, obtaining accurate statistics on accidents is challenging, making quantitative analysis and evaluation of accident risks difficult. Studies using inconsistent analytical methods often fail to converge on unified results or preventive measures, which contributes to the persistently high occurrence of fishing vessel accidents. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a standardized method for analyzing marine accidents on fishing vessels by applying the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) technique, originally developed for merchant ships. The research focuses on the globally prevalent trap boat fishery, specifically examining common injuries occurring on fishing vessels. Quantitative data were collected from insurance approval records, while qualitative data were obtained through surveys. The research followed the five stages of the FSA framework: hazard identification, risk estimation, identification of risk control options, cost-benefit assessment, and recommendations for decision-making. The findings suggest that the FSA framework can be effectively applied to analyze fishing vessel accidents based on insurance data, leading to selective and effective preventive measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With an estimated 32,000 annual fatalities, fishing vessel accidents are 100-fold deadlier than those involving merchant ships. Despite ongoing safety training, accident rates remain high. Since most fishing vessel accidents occur in small fishing vessels (<12 m) and are primarily attributable to human elements, this study focuses on small fishing vessel accidents where the human element is the primary cause, exploring preventive measures for major accident types and performing a type-specific risk assessment. First, we performed a quantitative analysis of frequently occurring accidents and the indirect factors influencing the human element using maritime accident statistics and surveys, respectively. Next, we employed the fault tree analysis technique proposed by the International Maritime Organization in its Formal Safety Assessment to quantitatively assess the rate of accidents caused by the human element attributable to various indirect factors. The primary indirect factors most significantly impacting the human element were ship factors (22.8%), people factors (18.9%), and organization on board (17.4%). Secondary factors included personal negligence (14.1%), aging equipment and poor maintenance (10.3%), and harsh natural conditions such as rough waves (9.6%). Eliminating the top three secondary indirect factors reduced accidents due to the human element by 15.4% (64.5−49.1%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Kalimantan has a superior commodity: tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon). Some of these commodities are marketed to several areas in Samarinda City and to areas outside Samarinda City, namely West Kutai Regency (Barong Tongkok Market). The distribution process uses a cold chain (cool box) system for 12 hours of travel. Long distribution times cause product quality to decrease. This study aims to assess tiger shrimp's quality and handling strategies using a cold chain system at PPI Selili Samarinda City. The quality level is determined using organoleptic testing at points 1 (PPI Selili) and 2 (Pasar Barong Tongkok). The formal safety assessment (FSA) method is used to identify risks in each handling activity, risk assessment associated with tiger shrimp deterioration, risk control, and recommendations to minimize quality degradation. Based on organoleptic tests, the quality of tiger shrimp is included in the category of safe for consumption. Product handling activities included unloading products from ships, moving them to terminals, washing, structuring, packaging in cool boxes, transportation by shipping services, shipping to Melak Pasar Barong Tongkok, unloading from shipping services, and product arrangement. The highest potential risk is handling shipments to Melak Pasar Barong Tongkok, which has 22 potential hazards. Risk mitigation can be applied through socialization and evaluation related to suitable fish handling methods (CPIB) and making operational schedules for cleaning in the product loading and unloading area before and after handling activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fuel‐powered vessels, LNG bunkering vessels have become an important development direction of LNG bunkering technology for its advantages. However, the LNG bunkering vessel operation risk assessment is relatively few. Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is a novel structured and systematic risk analysis method for Marine engineering, through the data analysis based on probability theory, people can foresee the risk before the accident and take measures to reduce the risk and avoid heavy loss. In this paper, the LNG bunkering vessel operation process is divided into four subprocesses: the loading process, the navigation process, the bunkering process, and the anchoring process. The FSA method is used to identify and evaluate the risks in each process, judge the negligible risk, reasonable and feasible low risk, unacceptable risk, and put forward corresponding safe measures to provide safety guarantees for the operation of LNG bunkering vessels. Through the standardized assessment steps of FSA, a risk model for the LNG bunkering vessel operation process is established, and reasonable suggestions and measures that can effectively control the risk of the LNG bunkering vessel operation process are proposed, the research results of this paper can provide important technical guidance and reference value for the safe operation of LNG bunkering vessel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marine Stewardship Council estimates that approximately 38 million people worldwide work in fisheries, and more than one-third of the global population is dependent on aquatic products for protein, highlighting the importance of sustainable fisheries. The FISH Safety Foundation reports that 300 fishers die every day. To achieve sustainable fisheries as a primary industry, the safety of human resources is of the utmost importance. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO) have made efforts towards this goal, including the issuance of agreements and guidelines to reduce industrial accidents among fishing vessel workers. The criterion for applying these guidelines is usually a total ship length ≥12 m or ≥24 m. However, a vast majority of registered fishing vessels are <12 m long, and the fishers of these vessels suffer substantially more industrial accidents. Thus, we conducted a quantitative analysis of 1093 industrial accidents affecting fishers on fishing vessels <12 m in length, analyzed risk using a Bayesian network analysis (a method proposed by the Formal Safety Assessment of the IMO), and administered a questionnaire survey to a panel of experts in order to ascertain the risk for different types of industrial accidents and propose specific measures to reduce this risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With an estimated 32,000 annual fatalities, fishing vessel accidents are 100-fold deadlier than those involving merchant ships. Despite ongoing safety training, accident rates remain high. Since most fishing vessel accidents occur in small fishing vessels (

Self-Unloading (SUL) bulk carriers are unconventional , designed and provided with various sets of equipment in different set-ups to allow them to discharge the cargo onboard without assistance or interference from any shore facilities or discharging equipment. This variance and complexity of equipment pose hazards to the crew onboard; though many precautions are in place to reduce these hazards, accidents still happen. In this study, a thorough hazard identification process is performed, guided by International Maritime Organization (IMO) Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The failure Mode Effect and Consequence Analysis (FMECA) method is used to identify the hazards and rank them based on measuring both frequency and severity of each. A novel contribution of this endeavour was to repeat the process of ranking hazard scenarios using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), thus sharpening the results obtained by FMECA, especially when the qualitative nature of the latter is considered. This study represents a pioneer step towards a full FSA for SUL bulk carriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the fact that every maritime venture is exposed to continuous risks, it is necessary to create a hierarchic structure of its predictors and to manage them efficiently. In view of that, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) suggests the possibility of risk management through the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The key element in the implementation of this method is to determine the optimum point of investment in risk reduction with the purpose of achieving the balance between the costs of protective measures and the profit. Although it may be inappropriate to discuss the price of a human life, it is nevertheless possible to calculate it by formal mathematical procedures through the Cost of Averting a Fatality (CAF) and the Implied Cost of Averting a Fatality (ICAF). This methodology has allowed to produce – and to present in this paper – the above values for the Republic of Croatia for the very first time. In addition, by using the ϰ2 test, it has been possible to examine the relations between the observed actions (foundering, collision / impact, flooding, fire, disabled and adrift, man overboard) and the period (years 2006-2017). The results clearly show a statistically relevant dependence (ϰ2(88)=143,17; p

In maritime safety research, risk is assessed usually within the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA), which provides a formal and systematic methodology to improve the safety of lives, assets, and the environment. A bespoke application of FSA to mitigate accidents in marine seismic surveying is put forward in this paper, with the aim of improving the safety of seismic vessel operations, within the context of developing an economically viable strategy. The work herein takes a close look at the hazards in North Sea offshore seismic surveying, in order to identify critical risk factors, leading to marine seismic survey accidents. The risk factors leading to undesirable events are analysed both qualitatively and quantitatively. A risk matrix is introduced to screen the identified undesirable events. Further to the screening, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is presented to investigate and analyse the most critical risks of seismic survey operation, taking into account the lack of historical data. The obtained results show that man overboard (MOB) event is a major risk factor in marine seismic survey operation; lack of training on safe work practice, slippery deck as a result of rain, snow or water splash, sea state affecting human judgement, and poor communication are identified as the critical risk contributors to the MOB event. Consequently, the risk control options are focused on the critical risk contributors for decision-making. Lastly, suggestions for the introduction and development of the FSA methodology are highlighted for safer marine and offshore operations in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper aims at assessing the probabilistic characteristics of the hull girder target safety level of a Suezmax tanker derived from a cost-benefit analysis. The target safety level is obtained considering as risk control option the change in the cross section scantlings of the tanker and its effect on risk reduction expressed by the total expected cost of the hull girder failure. The approach involves the evaluation of the effect of the risk control option on the hull girder failure probability assessed by means of a structural reliability analysis, and the assessment of the expected cost of hull girder failure in terms of property damage of the ship, pollution due to spillage of oil and loss of life of the ship's crew, as proposed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The uncertainties in the costs related to the loss of human life and environmental damages are characterised using available statistics and included into the probabilistic framework. Moreover, a probabilistic model is proposed that explicitly accounts for labour and material costs when evaluating the cost of the risk control option. The hull girder failure probability is calculated using the First-Order Reliability Method, considering the ultimate collapse of the midship cross section under vertical bending moment as the failure event. Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analyses are conducted for different operational scenarios to assess the contribution of the model parameters on the uncertainty of the target safety level of the tanker with the objective of identifying the range of the variation and the characteristic target safety level of the hull girder that would be adequate for risk-based design and reliability-based code calibration studies. Highlights • The paper aims at assessing the probabilistic characteristics of the hull girder target safety level of a Suezmax tanker. • The target safety level is obtained considering as a risk control option the change in the cross section scantlings. • The effect of the risk control option on the hull girder failure probability is assessed by a structural reliability analysis. • The hull girder failure probability is calculated using the FORM, considering the ultimate collapse of the midship section. • Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analyses are conducted for different operational scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The following paper presents an original, universal method of formal safety assessment of ship manoeuvring in sea waterways. The method allows evaluation of a ship's formal safety assessment on various types of waterways. It may be a basis for standardizing the methods of performing the 'navigational analyses' which are required in Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An uncertainty analysis is required to be carried out in formal safety assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization. The purpose of this article is to introduce the uncertainty analysis technique into the FSA process. Based on the uncertainty identification of input parameters, probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. An approach which combines the Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with the a-cuts for fuzzy calculus is proposed to propagate the uncertainties. One output of the FSA process is societal risk (SR), which can be evaluated in the two-dimensional frequency–fatality (FN) diagram. Thus, the confidence-level-based SR is presented to represent the uncertainty of SR in two dimensions. In addition, a method for time window selection is proposed to estimate the magnitude of uncertainties, which is an important aspect of modeling uncertainties. Finally, a case study is carried out on an FSA study on cruise ships. The results show that the uncertainty analysis of SR generates a two-dimensional area for a certain degree of confidence in the FN diagram rather than a single FN curve, which provides more information to authorities to produce effective risk control measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Safety may be defined as an acceptable state of risk by society. In this respect, for assessing the current safety level of ships, it is necessary to quantify the risk level of the operating world fleet, thus estimate and assess the basic contributors to risk, namely the frequency of maritime accidents and the extent of their consequences. The present investigation was motivated by earlier published work of Det Norske Veritas (DNV, 2006), in which they were some alarming signals of worsening of the level of maritime safety. A justified question therefore is whether and how the level of ship safety changed thereafter. Recalling that a fundamental step of a Formal Safety Assessment of maritime assets is the investigation of relevant casualty reports and the analysis of historical data, which characterise the maritime safety performance in the studied period, the herein presented work deals with a systematic analysis of ship accidents in the last decade as a way to evaluate the current level of safety for the majority of ship subtypes present in the world merchant fleet and to conclude on the foreseeable future. The presented analysis also includes a deeper investigation about possible relationships between accident rates and ship’s age, which proved more complex than initially thought. The outcome of the present study indicates that in the last decade although the frequencies of ship accidents generally increased, the safety level of various ship types did not significantly change, as the consequences of accidents remained in average at about the same level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a risk assessment of a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) marine engine system being developed for installation in the first LPG-powered ship in South Korea was performed and a new standard for a formal safety assessment (FSA) was proposed. Based on the FSA technique, hazards were identified through a failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) in the first stage. An FMEA workshop was conducted to assess 110 components, and 89 hazards were identified. Of these, 19 failure modes of intolerable level were identified, and risk ranks were divided into four groups. Then, a more objective risk assessment was conducted using fuzzy set theory to compensate for the subjectivity of FMEA. Additionally, a technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was used to represent the risk rank of individual systems more precisely. By the second stage, risk ranks could be divided into 28 groups through the classification of a total of 89 hazards. Finally, risk control options were presented for high-ranking hazards according to the fuzzy TOPSIS results, and a cost-benefit analysis was performed. Consequently, the gross and net costs of averting a fatality were calculated as US $2.98 million and US $2.93 million, respectively. Through a cost-benefit analysis, the periodic exchange of main critical components was found to be in the range of economic criteria that could be recommended as a safety standard. The risk assessment technique proposed in this study allows a more objective and effective selection of critical hazards that necessitate risk control measures. • An improved risk assessment technique based on formal safety assessment was developed. • Safety policies were proposed for marine vessels using the LPG engine system. • Objective and precise fuzzy TOPSIS FMEA was applied to balance FMEA subjectivity. • Fuzzy TOPSIS FMEA identified and categorized 89 hazards based on risk ranking. • Time required by the FSA procedure to identify critical hazards was reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In article the analysis of a problem of practical use of a method of the formal safety assessment (FSA) in activity of the classification society (CS) is carried out. The aim of this work is to study the organizational problems associated with the use of the FSA method for reducing the frequency of risk events in activities CS. Features of the organization of use of this method from this point of view in CS's risks are considered. The main stages of method FSA are listed. Methods of the structural analysis FMEA (the analysis of nature of refusals and their consequences); HAZOP (analysis of danger and working capacity); SWIFT (the structured analysis "what if") are considered. Application of method FSA by CS before the ship can be transferred to class of CS are offered. The commission of experts on the basis of these indicators is the risk matrix and determines what area of the ship gets - high, medium or low risk. On the basis of these calculations concludes the acceptance or refusal of acceptance of the ship to class of CS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk analysis methods gain more and more acceptance as decision support tools to analyze and reduce risks in engineering applications. Integration of these techniques leads to more reliable and realistic solutions. This paper proposes an integrated methodology to identify and evaluate driving factors like geographical locations at the time of the incident and failure modes causing fatality for cargo ships. The authors aim to develop a risk method for cleaner and safer maritime transport at coast and open seas of Turkey. The formal safety assessment (FSA) based approach combines fuzzy set theory (FST), ordered weighted geometric averaging operator (OWGA) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique (DEMATEL). A case study is carried out to determine the most common causes of unintentional damages on cargo ships at coasts and open seas of Turkey. Finally, some conclusions and suggestions are drawn concerning the needs to reduce the risks and improve certain safety measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a risk assessment model for ship collisions is proposed according to the guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approved by 1MO in 2002. The analysis is applied to ship collisions between fishing and cargo vessels owing to their high frequency and enormous damage. Bayesian network theory for risk analysis has been applied to reveal a causal relationship on human factors. A trial evaluation of Risk Control Options (RCOs) for collisions is attempted through the calculation of the dominance index. Finally, a trial cost benefit analysis for RCOs is considered through Gross Cost of Averting Fatality (GCAF) in FSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: With the rapid development of the maritime industry, maritime traffic safety management in China is under great pressure. Recently, it is obvious from the safety management on aft-causalities to risk assessment on proactive management of marine traffic at costal water area. According to the investigation of safety situation at coastal water area of China, applied on Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approach which was held by International Maritime Organization, the characteristics of hazards and accidents at coastal water area were analyzed and some results of risk distribution were held out in quantities. Furthermore, some proposed risk control options (RCO), synergy-based management mode by grid or cell, and long-term strategy in Coastal Water Area were carried out, which included hazard identification, risk evaluation, crisis early-warning, emergency handling and decision-making of RCO. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper probes the robustness of the present method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness (CE) of risk control options, which are identified through the International Maritime Organisation Guidelines on Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). We highlight the deficiencies of the current CE method, undermining its lucidity and consistency in application. The proposed approach outlines a mathematical formulation that neatly integrates all aspects of CE measures along with its application based on the Pareto dominance concept. We benchmark our method against CE results found in the FSAs for cargo and passenger ships, demonstrating the ease of application and clarity of interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) was devised several years ago with the intent to help the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and other policy makers formulate policies and regulations by the proper use of the scientific method in matters pertaining to maritime safety and the protection of the marine environment. A host of FSA studies have been submitted over the last several years and have been reviewed by the IMO. Also, progress has been recently accomplished as regards incorporating environmental risk evaluation criteria within FSA. On the basis of these developments, revisions of the FSA guidelines have been proposed and adopted. This paper presents a review of the FSA method in light of these developments. This review updates an earlier review of FSA by Kontovas and Psaraftis [Marine Technol 46(1):45-59, ()]. It also takes this opportunity to identify some deficiencies of FSA, either due to an incorrect application of the method or to the method itself, and makes some suggestions for further action in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) are conceptually sensible models for aviation risk assessment. The aim here is to examine the ability of BBN-based techniques to make accurate aviation risk predictions. BBNs consist of a framework of causal factors linked by conditional probabilities. BBN conditional probabilities are elicited from aviation experts. The issue is that experts are not being asked about their expertise but about others’ failure rates. A simple model of expertise, which incorporates the main features proposed by researchers, implies that a best-expert’s estimates of failure rates are based on accessible quantitative data on accidents, incidents, etc. Best-expert estimates will use the best available and accessible data. Depending on the frequency of occurrence, this will be data on similar events, on similar types of event, or general mental rules about event frequencies. These considerations, plus the need to be cautious about statistical fluctuations, limit the accuracy of conditional probability estimates. The BBN framework assumes what is known as the Causal Markov Condition. In the present context, this assumes that there are no hidden common causes for sequences of failure events. Examples are given from safety regulation comparisons and serious accident investigations to indicate that common causes may be frequent occurrences in aviation. This is because some States/airlines have safety cultures that do not meet ‘best practice’. BBN accuracy might be improved by using data from controlled experiments. Aviation risk assessment is now very difficult, so further work on resilience engineering could be a better way of achieving safety improvements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this research, the safety/risk level of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier system is investigated through the application of a fuzzy evidential reasoning (FER) method to uncertainty treatment of its failure modes. A fuzzy set manipulation formula with multiple parameters such as consequence severity, failure consequence probability, and failure likelihood is used to assess the safety/risk levels of failure modes of the system. Such failure estimations are synthesized to evaluate the whole system’s safety/risk level using an evidential reasoning (ER) approach. Risk control options (RCOs) are developed for reduction/control of high-risk level of the system. The best RCO, which is the one with the highest preference degree, is used to improve the safety level of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: SESAR, the ‘Single European Sky Air traffic Research’ program, envisages radical changes for European Air Traffic Management (ATM). It integrates and implements new technologies and information processing. This paper examines the safety decision-making in the implementation of SESAR projects. SESAR poses new safety problems because it adopts new paradigms for ATM safety – what lessons are there from environmental, nuclear and defense modeling? These disciplines have also had to confront the limitations of modeling the rates of rare and damaging – even catastrophic – events. A major conceptual change in SESAR is that of automated separation assurance systems. Some existing responsibilities transfer from the controller – either to the pilot or to computer systems – in a progressively phased approach. The major problem for SESAR safety validation is that mixed equipage/operations within a common airspace potentially generate new and different safety issues regarding the validation of safety predictions. A potential way forward uses high-fidelity Human In The Loop Simulations (HITLS) to generate confidence in the resilience of the ATM system. The focus changes from proving safety, i.e. through traditional kinds of validation processes, to extensive resilience testing using these simulations. The aim would be to test how resilient the system is to seeded errors, penetration testing, and crash/stress testing. This would be a high cost process because of the large investments required and the need for long sequences of testing. However, these demanding processes can provide ‘justified belief’ to the decision-maker that the changed ATM system is acceptably safe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the “Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment” of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the “International Safety Management Code” are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The majority of current maritime regulations has been developed following a reactive approach, often as ad-hoc response to serious accidents, and are characterised as being prescriptive leaving limited space for adapting equivalent solutions rather those described in the regulations. On the premise of providing a more proactive approach for the proposal or the evaluation of regulations, the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been introduced. In the context of FSA, the analysis of accident data is considered to be very important for providing potential input on developing more balanced, proactive and cost-effective regulations. However, it has been argued that the validity of historical data may be undermined by uncertainties. This paper is aimed at showing evidence on serious under-reporting in accident databases, which can be considered as the main contributor to questioning the direct and uncritical use of historical data. By analysing the 10-year tanker accident data from the Lloyd''s Register FairPlay (LRFP) and the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD) for vessels registered in Norway, it is found that the reporting performance has an upper bound of 41% for NMD and 30% for LRFP. Furthermore, based on comparison between LRFP data and self-assessment by Flag States, it is seen that accidents reported by the Flag States are also incomplete. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The cost-effectiveness of security measures is of paramount importance to how society’s resources are spent to protect against a range of possible future threats. Resources are limited and the challenge arises when deciding where to invest scarce resources in order to maximise benefits. In this respect, a criterion of averting a fatality is proposed for evaluating the effectiveness of maritime regulations concerning security issues. This criterion is derived in the same context as the one used when adopting safety regulations for the maritime industry. It is demonstrated that such kind of a decision criterion can be proposed with a value of $6 million. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main area which Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology was created for is maritime safety. Its model presents quantitative risk estimation and takes detailed information about accident characteristics into account. Nowadays, it is broadly used in shipping navigation around the world. It has already been shown that FSA can be widely used for the assessment of pilotage safety. On the basis of analysis and conclusion on the FSA approach, this paper attempts to show that the adaptation of this method to another area--risk evaluating in operating conditions of buildings--is possible and effective. It aims at building a mathematical model based on fuzzy logic risk assessment with different habitat factors included. The adopted approach lets us describe various situations and conditions that occur in creating and exploiting of buildings, allowing for automatic control of the risk connected to them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study uses reliability models for the improvement of the operation of a ship's "bilge — water separator" system. A "bilge-water separator" is a mechanism which cleans and inspects the ship's bilge water before it is discharged into the sea. Homogeneous continuous time Markov models have been used to record and estimate possible hazards and system failures in two different operational scenarios. If the photocell unit of the system fails, the ship may cause severe sea pollution. This study attempts to estimate the probability of sea pollution based on empirical data. In addition, the results of the model are compared with those of a system in which a second metering unit is added in an effort to to find out if this alteration improves the systems' efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The 2002 mid-air collision over Überlingen killed 71 people. There is a responsibility to learn from such tragedies. The object here is to identify the ‘macro-level’ air traffic management (ATM) lessons from Überlingen. By macro is meant strategic, organisational, institutional and general policy issues. First, the main Überlingen events are summarised, together with the main conclusions that are generally inferred. Next, the key points from accident investigations and research studies are reviewed. These are the data for a macro-level critique of the results of these accident investigations and research study findings. This critique uses current thinking on technical methodologies addressing accident causation, risk estimation and explanatory reasoning. This next leads on to an examination of the involvement of Eurocontrol. The penultimate two sections cover ‘Specific Macro-Level Safety Lessons’ and ‘General Macro-Level Safety Issues’. The final section is ‘Key Points’. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An analysis of 40 ocean-going commercial vessel accidents is compared with the study of a similar number of high-speed crafts (HSCs) accidents, using in both cases a methodology that highlights the sequence of events leading to the accident and identifies the associated latent or causal factors. The main objective of this study was to identify and understand the difference in the pattern of causal factors associated with HSC accidents, as compared with the more traditional ocean-going ships. From the analysis one can see that the HSC accidents are mainly related to bridge personnel and operations, where the human element is the key factor identified as being responsible for the majority of the accidents. When compared with ocean-going commercial vessels, it is clear that navigational equipment and procedures have a larger preponderance in terms of the occurrence of accidents of HSC and particular attention should be given to these issues. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a generic, high-level risk assessment of the global operation of ocean-going liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The analysis collects and combines information from several sources such as an initial hazid, a thorough review of historic LNG accidents, review of previous studies, published damage statistics and expert judgement, and develops modular risk models for critical accident scenarios. In accordance with these risk models, available information from different sources has been structured in the form of event trees for different generic accident categories. In this way, high-risk areas pertaining to LNG shipping operations have been identified. The major contributions to the risk associated with LNG shipping are found to stem from five generic accident categories, i.e. collision, grounding, contact, fire and explosion, and events occurring while loading or unloading LNG at the terminal. Of these, collision risk was found to be the highest. According to the risk analysis presented in this paper, both the individual and the societal risk level associated with LNG carrier operations lie within the As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALARP) area, meaning that further risk reduction should be required only if available cost-effective risk control options could be identified. This paper also includes a critical review of the various components of the risk models and hence identifies areas of improvements and suggests topics for further research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper presents the results of a recent risk evaluation study for roll on roll off passenger (RoPax) vessels, carried out as part of the activities of the SAFEDOR Integrated Project. The objective of the study was to investigate hazards and their causes during RoPax operation and to quantify, to the extent possible, their frequencies and consequences. A previous study on the safety assessment of RoPax vessels sailing in north west European waters, covering the period until 1994, was used as the basis in putting together a high level risk model for the current study. All scenarios are presented in the form of event trees, quantification of which is made on the basis of worldwide accident experience (from 1994 to 2004), relevant past studies, and judgement. The study estimates the risk of loss of life among passengers and crew (by calculating for each scenario the individual risk and the potential loss of life and by plotting the corresponding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present stability regulations developed over the years by IMO reached definite conclusion with the adoption of the Revised draft of the Intact. Stability Code. The criteria included there are working comparatively well with regard to the majority of conventional ships. Advent of very large and sophisticated ships of non-conventional features caused that those criteria may be inadequate, and because of that currently IMO is considering development of criteria based on ship performance. However, with the application of the existing criteria risk level is not known, and there was still a number of ships satisfying criteria that did capsize due to different causes. The present criteria are design criteria of the prescriptive nature. As opposed to prescriptive criteria requirements based on risk analysis offer many advantages. The author proposes that as alternative to existing criteria safety assessment based on risk analysis should be used. This would require holistic and system approach to stability. Safety against capsizing (or LOSA accident) is a complex system where design, operational, environmental and human factors have to be taken into account. The crucial point in safety assessment would be identification of all hazards the ship may be subjected. Although performing risk analysis to stability problems seems to be a very complex task, in the opinion of the author it may be manageable and could be applied for safety assessment of highly sophisticated and costly ships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]