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Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) affects the fate and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, but its global importance remains uncertain. Accurately modeling and predicting CUE on a global scale is challenging due to inconsistencies in measurement techniques and the complex interactions of climatic, edaphic, and biological factors across scales. The link between microbial CUE and soil organic carbon relies on the stabilization of microbial necromass within soil aggregates or its association with minerals, necessitating an integration of microbial and stabilization processes in modeling approaches. In this perspective, we propose a comprehensive framework that integrates diverse data sources, ranging from genomic information to traditional soil carbon assessments, to refine carbon cycle models by incorporating variations in CUE, thereby enhancing our understanding of the microbial contribution to carbon cycling.

Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO2 flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO2 sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO2 losses have substantially impacted the CO2 balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming.

Background and aimsMany agricultural areas are expected to face hotter, drier conditions from climate change. Understanding the mechanisms that crops use to mitigate these stresses can guide breeding for more tolerant plant material. We tested relationships between traits, physiological function in hot conditions and historical climate associations to evaluate these mechanisms for winegrapes. We expected a more negative leaf osmotic potential at full hydration (πo), which reduces leaf turgor loss during drought, and either a metabolically cheaper or more osmoprotectant leaf chemical composition, to allow cultivars associated with hot, dry regions to maintain greater gas exchange in hot growing conditions.MethodsWe measured πo, gas exchange and leaf chemistry for seven commercially important winegrape cultivars that vary widely in historical climate associations. Vines were grown in common-garden field conditions in a hot wine-growing region (Davis, CA, USA) and measured over the hottest period of the growing season (July-September).Key resultsThe value of πo varied significantly between cultivars, and all cultivars significantly reduced πo (osmotically adjusted) over the study period, although osmotic adjustment did not vary across cultivars. The value of πo was correlated with gas exchange and climate associations, but in the direction opposite to expected. Photosynthesis and πo were higher in the cultivars associated with hotter, less humid regions. Leaf chemical composition varied between cultivars but was not related to climate associations.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that maintenance of leaf turgor is not a primary limitation on grapevine adaptation to hot or atmospherically dry growing conditions. Thus, selecting for a more negative πo or greater osmotic adjustment is not a promising strategy to develop more climate-resilient grape varieties, contrary to findings for other crops. Future work is needed to identify the mechanisms increasing photosynthesis in the cultivars associated with hot, dry regions.

Net nitrogen mineralization (Nmin) and nitrification regulate soil N availability and loss after severe wildfires in boreal forests experiencing slow vegetation recovery. Yet, how microorganisms respond to postfire phosphorus (P) enrichment to alter soil N transformations remains unclear in N-limited boreal forests. Here, we investigated postfire N-P interactions using an intensive regional-scale sampling of 17 boreal forests in the Greater Khingan Mountains (Inner Mongolia-China), a laboratory P-addition incubation, and a continental-scale meta-analysis. We found that postfire soils had an increased risk of N loss by accelerated Nmin and nitrification along with low plant N demand, especially during the early vegetation recovery period. The postfire N/P imbalance created by P enrichment acts as a "N retention" strategy by inhibiting Nmin but not nitrification in boreal forests. This strategy is attributed to enhanced microbial N-use efficiency and N immobilization. Importantly, our meta-analysis found that there was a greater risk of N loss in boreal forest soils after fires than in other climatic zones, which was consistent with our results from the 17 soils in the Greater Khingan Mountains. These findings demonstrate that postfire N-P interactions play an essential role in mitigating N limitation and maintaining nutrient balance in boreal forests.

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regional research concentration. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use, and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–24 fire season, 3.9 million km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. This was driven by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and dampened by reduced activity in African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking wildfire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawai’i (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires by 4.5-fold and 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load and direct human suppression often modulated areas with anomalous burned area. The fire season in Canada was predictable three months in advance based on the fire weather index, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Formal attribution analyses indicated that the probability of extreme events has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude are projected to occur 2.22–9.58 times more frequently in Canada under high emission scenarios. Without mitigation, regions like Western Amazonia could see up to a 2.9-fold increase in extreme fire events. For the 2024–25 fire season, seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies in fire weather for parts of western Canada and South America, but no clear signal for extreme anomalies is present in the forecast. This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society’s resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation.

Understanding forest water limitation during droughts within a warming climate is essential for accurate predictions of forest-climate interactions. In hyperdiverse ecosystems like the Amazon forest, the mechanisms shaping hysteresis patterns in transpiration relative to environmental factors are not well understood. From this perspective, we investigated these dynamics by conducting in situ leaf-level measurements throughout and after the 2015 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in the hysteresis area (Harea) among transpiration (E), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and stomatal conductance (gs) at canopy level during the ENSO peak, attributed to both temporal lag and differences in magnitude between gs and VPD peaks. Specifically, the canopy species Pouteria anomala exhibited an increased Harea, due to earlier maximum gs rates leading to a greater temporal lag with VPD compared to the post-drought period. Additionally, leaf water potential (ΨL) and canopy temperature (Tcanopy) showed larger Harea during the ENSO peak compared to post-drought conditions across all studied species, suggesting that stomatal closure, particularly during the afternoon, acts to minimize water loss and may explain the counterclockwise hysteresis observed between ΨL and Tcanopy. The pronounced Harea during the drought points to a potential imbalance between water supply and demand, underlining the role of stomatal behavior of isohydric species in response to drought.

Mining activities put the Brazilian savannas, a global biodiversity hotspot, in danger of species and soil carbon losses. Experiments employing biosolids have been applied to rejuvenate this degraded ecosystem, but a lingering question yet to be answered is whether the microbiota that inhabits these impoverished soils can be recovered towards its initial steady state after vegetation recovery. Here, we selected an 18-year-old restoration chronosequence of biosolids-treated, untreated mining and native soils to investigate the soil microbiota recovery based on composition, phylogeny, and diversity, as well as the potential factors responsible for ecosystem recovery. Our results revealed that the soil microbiota holds a considerable recovery potential in the degraded Cerrado biome. Biosolids application not only improved soil health, but also led to 41.7 % recovery of the whole microbial community, featuring significantly higher microbiota diversity and enriched groups (e.g., Firmicutes) that benefit carbon storage compared to untreated mining and native soils. The recovered community showed significant compositional distinctions from the untreated mining or native soils, rather than phylogenetic differences, with physiochemical properties explaining 55 % of the overall community changes. This study advances our understanding of soil microbiota dynamics in response to disturbance and restoration by shedding light on its recovery associated with biosolid application in a degraded biodiverse ecosystem.

Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant-environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co-occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process-based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above- and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses to quantify allometric relationships for leaf, stem, and root biomass, as well as plant height and canopy area. We used basal diameter as a reference measure of plant size. Overall, basal diameter is the best predictor for leaf and stem biomass, height, and canopy area. Including height as another predictor can improve model accuracy in predicting leaf and stem biomass and canopy area. Fine root biomass is a function of leaf biomass alone. Species vary in their allometric relationships, with most variation occurring for plant height, canopy area, and stem biomass. We further explored potential trade-offs in biomass allocation across species between leaf and fine root, leaf and stem, and allocation to reproduction. Consistent with our expectation, we found that fast-growing plants allocated a greater fraction to reproduction. Additionally, plant height and specific leaf area negatively influenced the leaf-to-stem ratio. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no differences in root-to-leaf ratio between perennial and annual or C4 and C3 plants. Our study provides species-specific and functional-type-specific allometry equations for both above- and belowground organs of 11 common California grass species, enabling nondestructive biomass assessment in California grasslands. These allometric relationships and trade-offs in carbon allocation across species can improve ecosystem model predictions of grassland species interactions and environmental responses through differences in morphology.

Abstract: The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

Agropastoral practices that historically reduced the flammability of Mediterranean landscapes are poorly understood due to state prohibitions and lack of scientific interest. Oral histories, analysis of agronomical writings, transect walks, and ethnographic study of fire managers and community members in the Monte Pisano of Italy, find legacies of traditional agropastoral practices in present-day landscapes. Forest leaf litter raking, largely carried out by women, combined with fire wood cutting and burning to greatly reduce fire risk. Historic stigmatization of traditional burning and ignoring gendered peasant labor have reduced contemporary scientists' and fire managers' understandings of ecological processes and of options for reducing fire risk. Fire managers in the Mediterranean, and in areas around the world affected by rural depopulation, would benefit from a better understanding of traditional agropastoral and fire management practices. Litter raking has been understudied outside Central Europe, is often gendered, and may have important ecological consequences around the world.

Tropical rainforests of Latin America (LATAM) are one of the world's largest carbon sinks, with substantial future carbon sequestration potential and contributing a major proportion of the global supply of forest carbon credits. LATAM is poised to contribute predominantly towards high-quality forest carbon offset projects designed to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, halt biodiversity loss, and provide equitable conservation benefits to people. Thus, carbon markets, including compliance carbon markets and voluntary carbon markets continue to expand in LATAM. However, the extent of the growth and status of forest carbon markets, pricing initiatives, stakeholders, amongst others, are yet to be explored and extensively reviewed for the entire LATAM region. Against this backdrop, we reviewed a total of 299 articles, including peer-reviewed and non-scientific gray literature sources, from January 2010 to March 2023. Herein, based on the extensive literature review, we present the results and provide perspectives classified into five categories: (i) the status and recent trends of forest carbon markets (ii) the interested parties and their role in the forest carbon markets, (iii) the measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) approaches and role of remote sensing, (iv) the challenges, and (v) the benefits, opportunities, future directions and recommendations to enhance forest carbon markets in LATAM. Despite the substantial challenges, better governance structures for forest carbon markets can increase the number, quality and integrity of projects and support the carbon sequestration capacity of the rainforests of LATAM. Due to the complex and extensive nature of forest carbon projects in LATAM, emerging technologies like remote sensing can enable scale and reduce technical barriers to MRV, if properly benchmarked. The future directions and recommendations provided are intended to improve upon the existing infrastructure and governance mechanisms, and encourage further participation from the public and private sectors in forest carbon markets in LATAM.

Background NOAA’s Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke product comprises smoke plumes digitised from satellite imagery. Recent studies have used HMS as a proxy for surface smoke presence. Aims We compare HMS with airport observations, air quality station measurements and model estimates of near-surface smoke. Methods We quantify the agreement in numbers of smoke days and trends, regional discrepancies in levels of near-surface smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) within HMS polygons, and separation of total PM2.5 on smoke and non-smoke days across the contiguous US and Alaska from 2010 to 2021. Key results We find large overestimates in HMS-derived smoke days and trends if we include light smoke plumes in the HMS smoke day definition. Outside the western US and Alaska, near-surface smoke PM2.5 within areas of HMS smoke plumes is low and almost indistinguishable across density categories, likely indicating frequent smoke aloft. Conclusions Compared with airport, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and model-derived estimates, HMS most closely reflects surface smoke in the Pacific and Mountain regions and Alaska when smoke days are defined using only heavy plumes or both medium and heavy plumes. Implications We recommend careful consideration of biases in the HMS smoke product for air quality and public health assessments of fires.

Abstract: Background and aims: Both drought and vegetation restoration can have dramatic effects on plant community composition, but how they influence soil microbial community diversity, structure, and co-occurrence networks remain less well known. Methods: To better understand the regulatory mechanisms of drought and vegetation restoration on soil microorganisms, we planted 12 native species in precipitation manipulation experimental plots in an invaded coastal grassland in California, USA. We measured soil bacterial and fungal community composition by amplicon sequencing, and quantified plant species richness and coverage in the third experimental year. Results: Our results showed that drought significantly altered soil bacterial diversity and composition; however, neither drought nor vegetation restoration had significant effects on fungal diversity and composition. The control plots had the most cooperative interactions (greatest number of correlations) among bacterial and/or fungal species, while drought plots yielded the most complex co-occurrence network with the highest modularity and clustering coefficient. Structural equation modeling revealed that plant species richness, net gains, and soil moisture played dominant roles in shaping bacterial community structure. Drought and bacterial community structure directly affected fungal community structure. Plant dominant species cover, common species cover, and bacterial diversity were the key drivers in regulating the microbial co-occurrence network complex. Conclusion: We conclude that soil bacterial and fungal communities differ in their responses to abiotic and biotic environmental changes, which may weaken the interspecies interactions among soil microorganisms.

Unravelling biosphere feedback mechanisms is crucial for predicting the impacts of global warming. Soil priming, an effect of fresh plant-derived carbon (C) on native soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, is a key feedback mechanism that could release large amounts of soil C into the atmosphere. However, the impacts of climate warming on soil priming remain elusive. Here, we show that experimental warming accelerates soil priming by 12.7% in a temperate grassland. Warming alters bacterial communities, with 38% of unique active phylotypes detected under warming. The functional genes essential for soil C decomposition are also stimulated, which could be linked to priming effects. We incorporate lab-derived information into an ecosystem model showing that model parameter uncertainty can be reduced by 32-37%. Model simulations from 2010 to 2016 indicate an increase in soil C decomposition under warming, with a 9.1% rise in priming-induced CO2 emissions. If our findings can be generalized to other ecosystems over an extended period of time, soil priming could play an important role in terrestrial C cycle feedbacks and climate change.

A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

The permafrost region has accumulated organic carbon in cold and waterlogged soils over thousands of years and now contains three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Global warming is degrading permafrost with the potential to accelerate climate change as increased microbial decomposition releases soil carbon as greenhouse gases. A 19-year time series of soil and ecosystem respiration radiocarbon from Alaska provides long-term insight into changing permafrost soil carbon dynamics in a warmer world. Nine per cent of ecosystem respiration and 23% of soil respiration observations had radiocarbon values more than 50‰ lower than the atmospheric value. Furthermore, the overall trend of ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon values through time decreased more than atmospheric radiocarbon values did, indicating that old carbon degradation was enhanced. Boosted regression tree analyses showed that temperature and moisture environmental variables had the largest relative influence on lower radiocarbon values. This suggested that old carbon degradation was controlled by warming/permafrost thaw and soil drying together, as waterlogged soil conditions could protect soil carbon from microbial decomposition even when thawed. Overall, changing conditions increasingly favoured the release of old carbon, which is a definitive fingerprint of an accelerating feedback to climate change as a consequence of warming and permafrost destabilization. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'.

Background and aimsCAM photosynthesis is hypothesized to have evolved in atmospheres of low CO2 concentration in recent geological time because of its ability to concentrate CO2 around Rubisco and boost water use efficiency relative to C3 photosynthesis. We assess this hypothesis by compiling estimates of when CAM clades arose using phylogenetic chronograms for 73 CAM clades. We further consider evidence of how atmospheric CO2 affects CAM relative to C3 photosynthesis.ResultsWhere CAM origins can be inferred, strong CAM is estimated to have appeared in the past 30 million years in 46 of 48 examined clades, after atmospheric CO2 had declined from high (near 800 ppm) to lower (

Background and scopeThe growth of experimental studies of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) in diverse plant clades, coupled with recent advances in molecular systematics, presents an opportunity to re-assess the phylogenetic distribution and diversity of species capable of CAM. It has been more than two decades since the last comprehensive lists of CAM taxa were published, and an updated survey of the occurrence and distribution of CAM taxa is needed to facilitate and guide future CAM research. We aimed to survey the phylogenetic distribution of these taxa, their diverse morphology, physiology and ecology, and the likely number of evolutionary origins of CAM based on currently known lineages.Results and conclusionsWe found direct evidence (in the form of experimental or field observations of gas exchange, day-night fluctuations in organic acids, carbon isotope ratios and enzymatic activity) for CAM in 370 genera of vascular plants, representing 38 families. Further assumptions about the frequency of CAM species in CAM clades and the distribution of CAM in the Cactaceae and Crassulaceae bring the currently estimated number of CAM-capable species to nearly 7 % of all vascular plants. The phylogenetic distribution of these taxa suggests a minimum of 66 independent origins of CAM in vascular plants, possibly with dozens more. To achieve further insight into CAM origins, there is a need for more extensive and systematic surveys of previously unstudied lineages, particularly in living material to identify low-level CAM activity, and for denser sampling to increase phylogenetic resolution in CAM-evolving clades. This should allow further progress in understanding the functional significance of this pathway by integration with studies on the evolution and genomics of CAM in its many forms.

Over 70% of soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored at a depth greater than 20 cm belowground. A portion of this deep SOC actively cycles on annual to decadal timescales and is sensitive to global change. However, deep SOC responses to global change likely differ from surface SOC responses because biotic controls on SOC cycling become weaker as mineral controls predominate with depth. Here, we synthesize the current information on deep SOC responses to the global change drivers of warming, shifting precipitation, elevated CO2, and land use and land cover change. Most deep SOC responses can only be hypothesized because few global change studies measure deep soils, and even fewer global change experiments manipulate deep soils. We call on scientists to incorporate deep soils into their manipulations, measurements, and models so that the response of deep SOC can be accounted for in projections of nature-based climate solutions and terrestrial feedbacks to climate change.

Previous studies have shown that abscisic acid (ABA) and ethylene are involved in pulp maturation and peel coloration in the nonclimacteric citrus fruits. There are also signs indicating that other plant hormones may play some roles in citrus fruit ripening. In this study, we compared profiles of genome-wide gene expression and changes in hormones and peel pigments between fruits of Shatangju mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco, designated WT) and its natural mutant, Yuenongwanju (designated MT). The MT fruit matures ~2 months later than the WT fruit. Significant differences in fruit diameter, total soluble solids, titratable acid content, chlorophylls and carotenoids were detected between the fruits of the two genotypes at the sampled time points. Genome-wide transcriptome profiling showed that many genes involved in auxin and ABA metabolism and/or signaling pathways were differentially expressed between the MT and the WT fruits. Importantly, the expression of CrYUCCA8 was significantly lower and the expression of CrNCED5 was significantly higher in WT than in MT fruits at 230 and 250 DPA, respectively. In addition, the indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) level in the MT fruit was significantly higher than that in the WT counterpart, whereas a significantly lower level of ABA was detected in the mutant. Treatment of the WT fruit with exogenous IAA significantly delayed fruit maturation. Our results provide experimental evidence supporting the notion that auxin is a negative regulator of fruit maturation in citrus.

Abstract: The tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it is unclear which forests are the most vulnerable to extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may be protected by prior adaptation, or more vulnerable because they operate closer to physiological limits. Here we report that forests in drier South American climates experienced the greatest impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability to extreme temperatures and drought. The long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses of 123 forest plots across tropical South America show that the biomass carbon sink ceased during the event with carbon balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha−1 per year). However, intact tropical South American forests overall were no more sensitive to the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño than to previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long as they are protected.

Climate change has been partially mitigated by an increasing net land carbon sink in the terrestrial biosphere; understanding the processes that drive this sink is thus essential for protecting, managing and projecting this important ecosystem service. In this Review, we examine evidence for an enhanced land carbon sink and attribute the observed response to drivers and processes. This sink has doubled from 1.2 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in the 1960s to 3.1 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 in the 2010s. This trend results largely from carbon dioxide fertilization increasing photosynthesis (driving an increase in the annual land carbon sink of >2 PgC globally since 1900), mainly in tropical forest regions, and elevated temperatures reducing cold limitation, mainly at higher latitudes. Continued long-term land carbon sequestration is possible through the end of this century under multiple emissions scenarios, especially if nature-based climate solutions and appropriate ecosystem management are used. A new generation of globally distributed field experiments is needed to improve understanding of future carbon sink potential by measuring belowground carbon release, the response to carbon dioxide enrichment, and long-term shifts in carbon allocation and turnover.

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems1,2. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain1,3, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change3,4. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss5-7. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways4,6,8-11, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes12,13. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved7,14,15. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate.

Forest restoration through mechanical thinning, prescribed burning, and other management actions is vital to improving forest resilience to fire and drought across the Western United States, and yields benefits that can be monetized, including improvements in water supply and hydropower. Using California's Sierra Nevada as a study area, we assess the water and energy benefits of forest-restoration projects. By using a scalable top-down approach to track annual evapotranspiration following forest disturbance, coupled with hydropower simulations that include energy-price information, and marginal prices for water sales, we project the potential economic benefits of hydropower and water sales accruing to water-rights holders. The results found that water-related benefits from strategically planned fuels-reduction treatments now being carried out can be sufficient to offset costs of management actions aimed at forest restoration, especially in the face of climate change. Our findings justified investments in restoring forests and reinforce the central role of water and hydropower providers in partnerships for management of source-water watersheds. Results also highlighted the importance of accurate, scalable data and tools from the hydrology and water-resources community.

The little layer of tree plantations provides primary nutrients for uptake, buffers changes in soil moisture, and provides habitat and substrate to soil epigeic fauna. However, this layer in eucalypt plantations is often removed to reduce fuel load during the fire season in the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado). Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the effects of changes in litter dynamics on the function of these plantations, on key nutrient cycling processes and on epigeic fauna diversity and abundance. In two adjacent stands (one juvenile and one mature), the consequences of two years of litter removal were quantified as monthly litterfall, leaf and fine wood litter decomposition, epigeic fauna abundance and diversity, soil biogeochemical variables, and tree diameter and basal area increments. Monthly litterfall rates in juvenile and mature stands did not change with litter removal over the study period. Annual litterfall ranged from 4.1 to 4.9 Mg ha−1a−1 in litter removal plots and from 3.9 to 4.8 Mg ha−1a−1 in control plots. Fine wood litter decomposition was slower in litter removal plots compared to controls, while leaf decomposition rates were similar in both. Two years of litter removal in the juvenile stand did not affect topsoil biogeochemical parameters but decreased available phosphorus at 20–40 cm depth relative to controls. In the mature stand, total cation exchange capacity (0–20 cm) was higher in controls (6.4 cmolc dm−3) relative to litter removal plots (6.3 cmolc dm−3), while soil moisture (0–40 cm depth) was lower in litter removal (25.45 m3 m−3) compared to control plots (26 m3 m−3) in the dry season. A non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination revealed an increased homogeneity in epigeic fauna where litter was removed. Litterfall, decomposition, diameter increment, four soil physical parameters and fourteen chemical parameters at 0–20 and 20–40 cm depth explained the differences in soil epigeic fauna composition between litter removal and control plots. Diameter increment decreased with litter removal only in the juvenile stand, which had reached its growth peak. The results indicate that removing excess litter to decrease fuel volume can alter soil biodiversity and edaphic conditions that negatively affect nutrient cycling and tree growth.

Abstract: Background: The rRNA operon (rrn) copy number is associated with protein synthesis and reproduction, reflecting microbial r- and K-life strategies and influencing soil ecosystem function. Although the positive relationship between microbial community-level rrn copy numbers and nutrient availability has been reported, the association between rrn copy number and soil stoichiometry or environmental stress remains largely unknown, particularly in the context of long-term nutrient inputs.Results: Using long-term (> 30 years) field experiments across three agro-ecosystems, we consistently found that N fertilization increased the microbial community-level rrn copy number. This increase was equivalently explained by soil CN stoichiometry (22%) and soil acidification (21%). Balanced soil CN stoichiometry favored the growth of N-dependent copiotrophs such as Bacilliand Flavobacteriia containing high rrn copy numbers (an average of 2.5), and enhanced their nutrient competition ability. Moreover, N fertilization-induced soil acidification, as an environmental stressor, increased the abundance of pH-negative responders such as Clostridia and Ktedonobacteria which also contained high rrn copy numbers (2.8), and threatened rare taxa with low rrn copy numbers.Conclusions: Consequently, our finding challenges the concept of microbial life-strategy regulation solely by nutrient availability, highlighting the novelty of significant contributions of soil stoichiometric balance and environmental stress to microbial strategies in agro-ecosystems under long-term nutrient inputs.

Research Highlights: Bark thickness (BT) in coastal redwood (Sequoia sempervirens (D.Don) Endl.) varies in accordance with tree size, crown ratio, position within the canopy, height along the tree stem, genetic identity and latitude. However, current BT predictive equations do not account for such variability, leading to inaccurate BT estimations. We present improved BT models to increase the accuracy of BT estimates for coastal redwood in northern California. Background and Objectives: BT is an important metric that has many practical applications in forest management. However, BT varies substantially across species and environments, as well as across individuals and populations. Our objectives were to investigate BT along various gradients of change, with factors accounting for genetics, tapering of BT along the tree bole, differences in BT according to tree crown position within the stand, and the latitude. Materials and Methods: We collected BT data throughout most of redwood’s natural range along a north–south latitudinal gradient. Subsets of these data were used to examine the influence of particular variables on BT while holding the other variables constant. Results: Regionally, the bark was thicker among more xeric southern redwoods and thinner among more mesic northern redwoods. We found that the BT of codominant, intermediate and suppressed trees was around 8%, 14%, and 18% thicker, respectively, than bark of the same size dominant tree. Redwood trees growing in the partial shade of an overstory had thicker bark than trees growing in even-aged stands and incorporating genetic identity yielded major improvements in the BT model estimates, suggesting that BT is under genetic control. Bark thickness decreased with increasing height along the tree stem, with notable differences in the BT above and below breast height. Conclusions: We recommend utilizing the best available BT equations (over standard ‘bark factors’) in forest science, modeling and management applications. We also recommend the adoption of our drilling method for BT measurement on larger trees due to the potential for error associated with traditional bark gauge measurements.

Wildfire modifies the short- and long-term exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, with impacts on ecosystem services such as carbon uptake. Dry western US forests historically experienced low-intensity, frequent fires, with patches across the landscape occupying different points in the fire-recovery trajectory. Contemporary perturbations, such as recent severe fires in California, could shift the historic stand-age distribution and impact the legacy of carbon uptake on the landscape. Here, we combine flux measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and chronosequence analysis using satellite remote sensing to investigate how the last century of fires in California impacted the dynamics of ecosystem carbon uptake on the fire-affected landscape. A GPP recovery trajectory curve of more than five thousand fires in forest ecosystems since 1919 indicated that fire reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text]([Formula: see text]) in the first year after fire, with average recovery to prefire conditions after [Formula: see text] y. The largest fires in forested ecosystems reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text] (n = 401) and took more than two decades to recover. Recent increases in fire severity and recovery time have led to nearly [Formula: see text] MMT CO[Formula: see text] (3-y rolling mean) in cumulative forgone carbon uptake due to the legacy of fires on the landscape, complicating the challenge of maintaining California's natural and working lands as a net carbon sink. Understanding these changes is paramount to weighing the costs and benefits associated with fuels management and ecosystem management for climate change mitigation.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Global wind power expansion raises concerns about its potential impact on plant biomass production (PBP). Using a high-dimensional fixed effects model, this study reveals significant PBP reduction due to wind farm construction based on 2404 wind farms, 108,361 wind turbines, and 7,904,352 PBP observations during 2000-2022 in China. Within a 1-10 km buffer, the normalized differential vegetation and enhanced vegetation indices decrease from 0.0097 to 0.0045 and 0.0075 to 0.0028, respectively. Similarly, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and gross primary productivity decline from 0.0094 to 0.0034% and 0.0003-0.0002 g*C/m2 within a 1-7 km buffer. Adverse effects last over three years, magnified in summer and autumn, and are more pronounced at lower altitudes and in plains. Forest carbon sinks decrease by 12,034 tons within a 0-20 km radius, causing an average economic loss of $1.81 million per wind farm. Our findings underscore the balanced mitigation strategies for renewable energy transition when transiting from fossil fuels.

Novel climate and disturbance regimes in the 21st century threaten to increase the vulnerability of some western U.S. forests to loss of biomass and function. However, the timing and magnitude of forest vulnerabilities are uncertain and will be highly variable across the complex biophysical landscape of the region. Assessing future forest trajectories and potential management impacts under novel conditions requires place-specific and mechanistic model projections. Stakeholders in the high-carbon density forests of the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains (NRM) currently seek to understand and mitigate climate risks to these diverse conifer forests, which experienced profound 20th century disturbance from the 1910 “Big Burn” and timber harvest. Present forest management plan revisions consider approaches including increases in timber harvest that are intended to shift species compositions and increase forest stress tolerance. We utilize CLM-FATES, a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) coupled to an Earth Systems Model (ESM), to model shifting NRM forest carbon stocks and cover, production, and disturbance through 2100 under unprecedented climate and management. Across all 21st century scenarios, domain forest C-stocks and canopy cover face decline after 2090 due to the interaction of intermittent drought and fire mortality with declining Net Primary Production (NPP) and post-disturbance recovery. However, mid-century increases in forest vulnerability to fire and drought impacts are not consistently projected across climate models due to increases in precipitation that buffer warming impacts. Under all climate scenarios, increased harvest regimes diminish forest carbon stocks and increase period mortality over business-as-usual, despite some late-century reductions in forest stress. Results indicate that existing forest carbon stocks and functions are moderately persistent and that increased near-term removals may be mistimed for effectively increasing resilience.

Prescribed fire is an important management tool for restoring fire-adapted ecosystems and mitigating the risk of high-severity wildfire in the North American Mediterranean climate zone (NAMCZ), much of which was historically characterized by frequent low- to moderate-severity fire. For over a century, policies that excluded fire, curtailed Indigenous cultural burning, and prioritized timber harvesting have, in combination with anthropogenic climate warming, driven large-scale, high-severity fires that are wreaking ecological and socioeconomic havoc. Despite its recognized need, the use of prescribed fire at appropriate scale has been slow to occur. We describe some of the principal obstacles to increasing the application of prescribed fire in the NAMCZ and suggest four strategies for policy makers and high-level managers to overcome them: (1) redoubling federal and state agency commitment and rewarding assertive leadership, (2) increasing funding for prevention-focused management (as opposed to suppression), (3) building capacity through cooperation, and (4) expanding monitoring to inform burn strategies and adaptive management.

Long-term monitoring of microbial communities in the rhizosphere of post-fire forests is currently one of the key knowledge gaps. Knowing the time scale of the effects is indispensable to aiding post-fire recovery in vulnerable woodlands, including holm oak forests, that are subjected to a Mediterranean climate, as is the case with forests that are found in protected areas such as the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park in southeastern Spain. We took rhizosphere soil samples from burned and unburned holm oak trees approximately 3, 6, and 9 years after the 2005 fire that devastated almost 3500 ha in southeastern Spain. We observed that the prokaryotic communities are recovering but have not yet reached the conditions observed in the unburned forest. A common denominator between this fire and other fires is the long-term persistence of three ecosystem recovery biomarkers—specifically, higher proportions of the genera Arthrobacter, Blastococcus, and Massilia in soil microbial communities after a forest fire. These pyrophilous microbes possess remarkable resilience against adverse conditions, exhibiting traits such as xerotolerance, nitrogen mineralization, degradation of aromatic compounds, and copiotrophy in favorable conditions. Furthermore, these biomarkers thrive in alkaline environments, which persist over the long term following forest fires. The relative abundance of these biomarkers showed a decreasing trend over time, but they were still far from the values of the control condition. In conclusion, a decade does not seem to be enough for the complete recovery of the prokaryotic communities in this Mediterranean ecosystem.

Viruses are abundant, ubiquitous members of soil communities that kill microbial cells, but how they respond to perturbation of soil ecosystems is essentially unknown. Here, we investigate lineage-specific virus-host dynamics in grassland soil following "wet-up", when resident microbes are both resuscitated and lysed after a prolonged dry period. Quantitative isotope tracing, time-resolved metagenomics and viromic analyses indicate that dry soil holds a diverse but low biomass reservoir of virions, of which only a subset thrives following wet-up. Viral richness decreases by 50% within 24 h post wet-up, while viral biomass increases four-fold within one week. Though recent hypotheses suggest lysogeny predominates in soil, our evidence indicates that viruses in lytic cycles dominate the response to wet-up. We estimate that viruses drive a measurable and continuous rate of cell lysis, with up to 46% of microbial death driven by viral lysis one week following wet-up. Thus, viruses contribute to turnover of soil microbial biomass and the widely reported CO2 efflux following wet-up of seasonally dry soils.

Given increasing forest disturbances, novel solutions are needed to rapidly recover ecosystem services such as carbon storage, while bolstering climate change adaptation. Reforestation with single-species mixed-provenance plantings is an emerging strategy that may enhance stand productivity and disturbance resistance, while assisted gene flow is a potentially powerful tool for matching seed-source with future planting-site climate. We investigated the potential of mixed-provenance plantings and assisted gene flow for maximizing early growth using a historical dataset for knobcone-Monterey pine (Pinus x attenuradiata), a fire-resilient hybrid developed for low-elevation sites in California, USA. We examined (1) 9-year individual-tree relative growth rate (RGR) in response to neighborhood seed-parent provenance diversity at two test sites and (2) 3-year RGR and survival as functions of parent seed-source climate at 4 test sites. We found 9-year RGR varied with seed provenance diversity, with 3 of 5 provenances showing a positive RGR-diversity relationship. Parent seed-source climate affected 3-year RGR but not survival. Closer climate matches in terms of precipitation as snow (PAS) showed fastest growth. Our results suggest careful selection and arrangement of genetically diverse stock may improve carbon sequestration and initial planting success in a hybrid conifer, with implications for reforestation under climate change and reburn risk.

Windthrows (trees uprooted and broken by winds) are common across the Amazon. They range in size from single trees to large gaps that lead to changes in forest dynamics, composition, structure, and carbon balance. Yet, the current understanding of the spatial variability of windthrows is limited. By integrating remote sensing data and geospatial analysis, we present the first study to examine the occurrence, area, and direction of windthrows and the control that environmental variables exert on them across the whole Amazon. Windthrows are more frequent and larger in the northwestern Amazon (Peru and Colombia), with the central Amazon (Brazil) being another hot spot of windthrows. The predominant direction of windthrows is westward. Rainfall, surface elevation, and soil characteristics explain the variability (20%-50%) of windthrows but their effects vary regionally. A better understanding of the spatial dynamics of windthrows will improve understanding of the functioning of Amazon forests.

Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

BackgroundTropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well.ResultsOur classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

Microbial soil communities form commensal relationships with plants to promote the growth of both parties. The optimization of plant-microbe interactions to advance sustainable agriculture is an important field in agricultural research. However, investigation in this field is hindered by a lack of model microbial community systems and efficient approaches for building these communities. Two key challenges in developing standardized model communities are maintaining community diversity over time and storing/resuscitating these communities after cryopreservation, especially considering the different growth rates of organisms. Here, a model synthetic community (SynCom) of 16 soil microorganisms commonly found in the rhizosphere of diverse plant species, isolated from soil surrounding a single switchgrass plant, has been developed and optimized for in vitro experiments. The model soil community grows reproducibly between replicates and experiments, with a high community α-diversity being achieved through growth in low-nutrient media and through the adjustment of the starting composition ratios for the growth of individual organisms. The community can additionally be cryopreserved with glycerol, allowing for easy replication and dissemination of this in vitro system. Furthermore, the SynCom also grows reproducibly in fabricated ecosystem devices (EcoFABs), demonstrating the application of this community to an existing in vitro plant-microbe system. EcoFABs allow reproducible research in model plant systems, offering the precise control of environmental conditions and the easy measurement of plant microbe metrics. Our results demonstrate the generation of a stable and diverse microbial SynCom for the rhizosphere that can be used with EcoFAB devices and can be shared between research groups for maximum reproducibility. IMPORTANCE Microbes associate with plants in distinct soil communities to the benefit of both the soil microbes and the plants. Interactions between plants and these microbes can improve plant growth and health and are therefore a field of study in sustainable agricultural research. In this study, a model community of 16 soil bacteria has been developed to further the reproducible study of plant-soil microbe interactions. The preservation of the microbial community has been optimized for dissemination to other research settings. Overall, this work will advance soil microbe research through the optimization of a robust, reproducible model community.

Forests currently face numerous stressors, raising questions about processes of forest recovery as well as the role of humans in stimulating recovery by planting trees that might not otherwise regenerate. Theoretically, planted trees can also provide a seed source for further recruitment once the planted trees become reproductive, acting as "nucleation" sites; however, it is unclear whether changing site conditions over time (e.g., through the growth of competitors like woody shrubs) influences establishment in the long term, even if seed availability increases. We tested the nucleation concept in a system where shrub competition is known to influence tree establishment and growth, performing an observational study of sites within and close to newly reproductive planted stands in yellow-pine (YP) and mixed-conifer ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada, California. We surveyed and then modeled both seedling occurrence and density as a function of distance to seed sources, competing woody vegetation, and other environmental characteristics. We found that proximity to a planted stand was associated with an increase in the probability of YP seedlings (species more likely to originate from the planted stand) from 0.33 at 35 m from the planted stand to 0.56 directly adjacent to the stand and 0.65 within the stand. However, we found no significant effect of proximity on YP seedling density. This proximity effect suggests that seed availability continues to be a driver of recruitment several decades postwildfire, though other processes may influence the expected density of recruits. Proxies for competitive pressure (shrub volume and shrub cover) were not significant, suggesting that competing vegetation did not have a major influence on recruitment. Though seedling presence and density appeared to be independent of shrub impacts, we did find that shrubs were significantly taller than seedlings. Therefore, we suggest that shrubs may not limit seedling establishment, but they may negatively affect seedlings' ability to grow and serve as a seed source for further recruitment and forest expansion. Altogether, we find that planting may provide a statistically significant but small role in driving recruitment outside of the planted site.

Peninsular bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) are found exclusively in Southern California and Baja Mexico. They are federally endangered due to multiple threats, including introduced infectious disease. From 1981 - 2017, we conducted surveillance for 16 pathogens and estimated population sizes, adult survival, and lamb survival. We used mixed effects regression models to assess disease patterns at the individual and population levels. Pathogen infection/exposure prevalence varied both spatially and temporally. Our findings indicate that the primary predictor of individual pathogen infection/exposure was the region in which an animal was captured, implying that transmission is driven by local ecological or behavioral factors. Higher Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae seropositivity was associated with lower lamb survival, consistent with lambs having high rates of pneumonia-associated mortality, which may be slowing population recovery. There was no association between M. ovipneumoniae and adult survival. Adult survival was positively associated with population size and parainfluenza-3 virus seroprevalence in the same year, and orf virus seroprevalence in the previous year. Peninsular bighorn sheep are recovering from small population sizes in a habitat of environmental extremes, compounded by infectious disease. Our research can help inform future pathogen surveillance and population monitoring for the long-term conservation of this population.

This article comments on: Yi-Yi Meng, Wei Xiang, Yin Wen, Dong-Liu Huang, Kun-Fang Cao, and Shi-Dan Zhu, Correlations between leaf economics, mechanical resistance and drought tolerance across 41 cycad species, Annals of Botany, Volume 130, Issue 3, 1 September 2022, Pages 345–354 https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcab146

Arctic and boreal permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition has been slower than carbon inputs from plant growth since the last glaciation. Anthropogenic climate warming has threatened this historical trend by accelerating SOC decomposition and altering wildfire regimes. We accurately modeled observed plant biomass and carbon emissions from wildfires in Alaskan ecosystems under current climate conditions. In projections to 2300 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, we found that warming and increased atmospheric CO2 will result in plant biomass gains and higher litterfall. However, increased carbon losses from (a) wildfire combustion and (b) rapid SOC decomposition driven by increased deciduous litter production, root exudation, and active layer depth will lead to about 4.4 PgC of soil carbon losses from Alaska by 2300 and most (88%) of these loses will be from the top 1 m of soil. These SOC losses offset plant carbon gains, causing the ecosystem to transition to a net carbon source after 2200. Simulations excluding wildfire increases yielded about a factor of four lower SOC losses by 2300. Our results show that projected wildfire and its direct and indirect effects on plant and soil carbon may accelerate high-latitude soil carbon losses, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change.

Global estimates of the land carbon sink are often based on simulations by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The use of a large number of models that differ in their underlying hypotheses, structure and parameters is one way to assess the uncertainty in the historical land carbon sink. Here we show that the atmospheric forcing datasets used to drive these TBMs represent a significant source of uncertainty that is currently not systematically accounted for in land carbon cycle evaluations. We present results from three TBMs each forced with three different historical atmospheric forcing reconstructions over the period 1850-2015. We perform an analysis of variance to quantify the relative uncertainty in carbon fluxes arising from the models themselves, atmospheric forcing, and model-forcing interactions. We find that atmospheric forcing in this set of simulations plays a dominant role on uncertainties in global gross primary productivity (GPP) (75% of variability) and autotrophic respiration (90%), and a significant but reduced role on net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration (30%). Atmospheric forcing is the dominant driver (52%) of variability for the net ecosystem exchange flux, defined as the difference between GPP and respiration (both autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration). In contrast, for wildfire-driven carbon emissions model uncertainties dominate and, as a result, model uncertainties dominate for net ecosystem productivity. At regional scales, the contribution of atmospheric forcing to uncertainty shows a very heterogeneous pattern and is smaller on average than at the global scale. We find that this difference in the relative importance of forcing uncertainty between global and regional scales is related to large differences in regional model flux estimates, which partially offset each other when integrated globally, while the flux differences driven by forcing are mainly consistent across the world and therefore add up to a larger fractional contribution to global uncertainty.