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Analyzing 48 foreign exchange (FX) rates and 1.2 million FX-related news articles over a 35-year period, using digital textual analysis, we find that a currency reversal investment strategy that buys (sells) currencies with low (high) media sentiment offers strong positive and statistically significant returns and Sharpe ratios. The results are robust and the strategy adds value over other currency premia determinants. Analysts' forecasts systematically mispredict the reversal strategy. This is the first article to show that price reversals based on media sentiment are a well-defined feature of the FX market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present evidence that several popular low-frequency measures of effective spread suffer from a volatility-induced bias and that volatility is the primary driver of the variation of these liquidity proxies. Using data for U.S. equities and major foreign exchange rates, we show that the bias arises when the effective spread is small relative to volatility. We document that the bias has become more acute over time and show that volatility-biased measures fail to replicate some well-known results in empirical finance. We conclude by providing guidance on the choice of low-frequency measures in empirical applications. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the shadow economy and its major determinants has been an important part of economic literature over the past few decades. In this article, we analyse the impact of exchange rate volatility on the presence of the shadow economy for the current 38 OECD countries over the period of 1991–2021 in both a linear and nonlinear manner. We provide the opportunity to test whether an exchange rate adjustment may follow a nonlinear path and analyse the asymmetric impact of exchange rate volatility on the shadow economy. We estimate a linear ARDL model for each country and find support that exchange rate variability significantly affects the shadow economy both in the short run and long run in most countries both in linear and nonlinear models. However, by estimating a nonlinear ARDL model, we find an asymmetric exchange rate volatility effect in all 38 countries concluding that exchange rate volatility and risks associated with it significantly affects the shadow economy. Thus, it is crucial that this group of nations adequately implement financial policies to minimize this risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of fiscal discipline on the dynamics of exchange rate pass-through during inflation targeting. The present study analyses the Turkish economy for the period 2006–2022 by the use of threshold regression models. Our results suggest that fiscal discipline, measured by the IMF-defined primary budget balance as a share of GDP (which excludes the one-off government revenues balance such as privatization, interest earnings, and real estate sales) has a significant role in inflation dynamics. The degree of exchange rate pass-through is significantly lower and thus raises the effectiveness of inflation targeting when the government ensues strict fiscal discipline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to understand the impact of the overall charge of Fe(III) chelates on their water exchange kinetics, thermodynamic stability, and kinetic inertia. To this end, we synthesized two CDTA‐amide ligands, each characterized by the replacement of one or two carboxyl groups with diethylamide functionalities. These alterations produced Fe(III) complexes with neutral or positively charged characteristics. The rate of water exchange (kex) was determined through a combined analysis of 1H relaxometric data and 1⁷O NMR chemical shift and transverse relaxation rate data. Additionally, we evaluated the thermodynamic stability and kinetic inertness of the complexes using potentiometry, UV‐Vis spectrophotometry, and capillary zone electrophoresis. Our results indicate that altering the charge of the complex slows down kex, consistent with previous observations for Gd(III) and Mn(II) chelates. Furthermore, the results indicate that incorporating amide donor groups decreases the stability of the complexes and reduces their kinetic inertia. However, both stability and kinetic inertia remain higher than those of [Fe(EDTA)]−. These findings provide some valuable insights for the development of Fe(III)‐based MRI probes alternative to those based on Gd(III). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While still in their nascent stages, cryptocurrencies have the potential to reshape the international political economy by hastening the end of US dollar hegemony and reducing the US's coercive financial power. Recently, governments have adopted various regulatory approaches to these new technologies. Most commonly, countries have implemented an array of partial and absolute bans. What explains governments' responses to the new and potentially disruptive technology? We argue that governments' decisions to ban cryptocurrencies stem from their desire to maintain monetary control. While cryptoization threatens all governments' monetary policy autonomy, governments who choose to fix their exchange rates and restrict cross-border movement of capital are most motivated to ban crypto because digital currencies can be used to evade exchange and capital controls. A country's regime type also affects its ability to enact bans; democracies will be less likely to enact a ban than autocracies. Our results suggest that cryptocurrency threatens the international political and economic status quo less than many speculate because regimes most likely to be at odds with US monetary and financial dominance face a strong incentive to ban the technologies in their own countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To evaluate outcomes in cancer patients with ureteral obstruction by comparison of retrograde stenting and percutaneous nephrostomy techniques. Systematic review of all studies up to October 2023. Studies were identified from all major databases including MEDLINE, Cochrane, and EMBASE. All comparative studies between retrograde stenting and percutaneous nephrostomy were searched; studies with paediatric populations were excluded. Primary outcomes were procedure and intervention failure rates; secondary outcomes were infection, blockage, displacement, and unplanned exchange rates along with procedure time and length of stay. Eighteen studies with 1228 patients contributed to the summative outcome. Percutaneous nephrostomy was statistically superior to retrograde stenting for procedure failure rate (P <.00001) and intervention failure rate (P =.0004). Retrograde stenting was statistically superior to percutaneous nephrostomy for displacement rates (P =.003), procedure time (P <.00001), and length of stay (P <.00001). Retrograde stenting showed no difference to percutaneous nephrostomy for infection rates (P =.94), blockage rates (P =.93), unplanned exchange rates (P =.48), There is no absolute superiority for retrograde stenting or percutaneous nephrostomy for malignant ureteral obstruction. Both techniques have their advantages and disadvantages, with some comparable outcomes; patients are key when selecting the best technique. Larger studies are required to assess the outcomes of both techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study attempts to measure RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) equilibrium and its associated degree of misalignments for China using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches. We use a range of economic fundamentals and employ yearly data covering the period 1980–2020, and apply the Johansen Cointegration test and other econometric methods for the study purpose. We find evidence of the existence of RMB real effective exchange rate equilibrium, and for most of the periods, the RMB REER is closer to its equilibrium level. We also find that the RMB REER misaligned with its equilibrium producing episodes of undervaluation and overvaluation, but the magnitude of the misalignments is small and the BEER approach produces a lower degree of misalignments. This suggests that the RMB undervaluation is moderate and not as exaggerated. We identify that the economic fundamentals used in this study are important determinants of RMB real effective exchange rate equilibrium. In line with the above, the study recommends that China may continue using its RMB exchange rate as its policy tool, but the policymakers should focus on the core fundamentals that derived the equilibrium exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittances are regarded as an important source of foreign exchange for the majority of low and middle-income countries, and thus have the potential to impact their aggregate economic activities. The current study investigates the impact of remittance inflows and international oil prices on India's trade balance from 1975 to 2020. We use a non-linear autoregressive and distributed lag model to examine the asymmetric impact of remittance and oil price changes on trade balance. The study discovered that rising remittance inflows have a detrimental long-run impact on the trade balance. It also demonstrates that while a positive oil price shock worsens the trade balance, a negative oil price shock improves it in the long run. As a result, the paper emphasises the need to reduce skilled migration, properly channel remittance revenues, develop financial institutions, and implement more efficient exchange rate policies in order to achieve long-term trade surpluses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This study examined the relationship between exports grouped by technology classification and movements in the real effective exchange rate for emerging markets. Export demand models were estimated for 24 emerging markets, covering high, medium–high, medium–low, and low technology groups from 2010:Q1 to 2021:Q4. Long-term elasticities were estimated using the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) panel estimator. The results indicate that exchange rate uncertainty negatively impacts exports in medium–high and medium–low technology groups, as well as total exports. Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimators broadly support these findings. Country-specific analysis revealed a predominantly negative relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and exports in countries with significant coefficients. Overall, the study highlights the importance of considering country-specific characteristics and technology classifications when studying the link between exchange rate uncertainty and exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) for stock and currency markets under different market statuses and then apply them to study the asymmetry of risk spillovers between currency and stock markets under different market statuses. Empirical results show that risk spillovers between different statuses in stock and currency markets are significant and asymmetric. Next, for most countries, the scale and volatility of CoVaR are more prominent when return-chasing effects, rather than portfolio rebalancing effects, dominate. Finally, when stock prices in major industrial countries fall sharply or currencies depreciate significantly, investing in Japanese stocks is relatively safe for U.S. investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the international demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world, and the dollar as a global risk factor. In doing so, we lay out a novel transmission mechanism through which the U.S. monetary policy affects the currency market and the global economy. The global financial cycle is a dollar cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost of living? In the context of changes in import prices (driven by, e.g. changes in trade costs or exchange rates), most analyses focus on variation across households in initial expenditure shares on imported goods. However, the unequal welfare effects of non-marginal foreign price changes also depend on differences in how consumers substitute between imported and domestic goods, on which there is scant evidence. Using data from Switzerland surrounding the 2015 appreciation of the Swiss franc, we provide evidence that lower-income households have higher price elasticities. We quantify the contribution of heterogeneous elasticities for the unequal welfare effects of observed price changes between 2014 and 2015 and for counterfactual shocks to the mean and dispersion of import price changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series were shown empirically to share an unconventional form of cyclical and persistent dynamics, whose functional form was obtained from the solution of general-equilibrium models with heterogeneous firms. The econometric modeling of equations that link such series requires a new methodology, as existing parametric techniques can cause paradoxical regression results and omit predictabilities. We provide a solution to disentangle the genuine relation between variables (the parameters linking them) from the unconventional dynamics that drive them. As an application, we show that GBP-USD forward premia have no predictive power for excess returns over 1976–2015 (thus solving this forward-premium puzzle) once the unconventional dynamics of spot rates are modeled. Taking advantage of these dynamics, we uncover a trading strategy which consistently outperforms existing ones in the out-of-sample period 2015–2021, delivering almost treble their profits and yielding a Sharpe ratio of 85%. Hence, even in this heavily traded market, the efficient market hypothesis has been failing for over 45 years as persistent profit opportunities remained unexploited because of the unconventional dynamics of the spot rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study sets out to examine the effects of the interaction of subsidy removal on premium motor spirit (PMS) and exchange rate devaluation on macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. In this regard, this study adopted the Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR) identified with sign‐and‐zero restrictions for annual data between 1985 and 2022. The empirical results reveal that both the removal of subsidies on PMS and the devaluation of the naira exchange rate significantly undermine real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and raise inflationary pressures in Nigeria. One important implication of this finding is that the ongoing subsidy reforms in the energy sector and associated devaluation of the naira exchange rate raise the risk of stagflation in Nigeria. Secondly, the simulation shows that simultaneous subsidy removal on PMS and exchange rate devaluation can trigger macroeconomic instability. This finding implies that stabilising PMS price and the exchange rate is key to achieving macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. Thus, this study recommends that Nigeria should be cautious and act quickly to cushion the price of PMS from the vagaries of foreign exchange market fluctuations to improve macroeconomic stability in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new methodology to conduct simultaneous inference of the non‐parametric component in partially linear time series regression models where the non‐parametric part is a multi‐variate unknown function. In particular, we construct a simultaneous confidence region (SCR) for the multi‐variate function by extending the high‐dimensional Gaussian approximation to dependent processes with continuous index sets. Our results allow for a more general dependence structure compared to previous works and are widely applicable to a variety of linear and non‐linear autoregressive processes. We demonstrate the validity of our proposed methodology by examining the finite‐sample performance in the simulation study. Finally, an application in time series, the forward premium regression, is presented, where we construct the SCR for the foreign exchange risk premium from the exchange rate and macroeconomic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hallmark of biomolecular condensates formed via liquid-liquid phase separation is that they dynamically exchange material with their surroundings, and this process can be crucial to condensate function. Intuitively, the rate of exchange can be limited by the flux from the dilute phase or by the mixing speed in the dense phase. Surprisingly, a recent experiment suggests that exchange can also be limited by the dynamics at the droplet interface, implying the existence of an 'interface resistance'. Here, we first derive an analytical expression for the timescale of condensate material exchange, which clearly conveys the physical factors controlling exchange dynamics. We then utilize sticker-spacer polymer models to show that interface resistance can arise when incident molecules transiently touch the interface without entering the dense phase, i.e., the molecules 'bounce' from the interface. Our work provides insight into condensate exchange dynamics, with implications for both natural and synthetic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theme of the relationship between Labour Party and economic competence resurfaced in February 2024 when Keir Starmer decided to scale down its £28 billion green investment pledge. This work explores the historical and structural reasons why the economic competence issue has tended to be ‘owned’ by the Tories. It highlights that the definition of economic competence has often coincided with an emphasis on monetary stability and balancing government budgets with relatively low levels of taxation from the late 1970s onwards. The Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis in the 1990s led to a partial redefinition of economic competence, now built around a political economy of ‘constrained discretion’ and ‘credible Keynesianism’. The 2007–8 global financial crisis gave the Conservative Party the opportunity to regain its reputation for competence by arguing that the crisis had been the consequence of excessive public spending. The Labour Party's decision to sacrifice its biggest single policy pledge on the altar of financial probity heralds the difficulties that the new Labour government will face when attempting to reconcile the need for an active and strategic state with its stance on fiscal rectitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing accurate in vitro models that replicate the in vivo tumor environment is essential for advancing cancer research and therapeutic development. Traditional 2D cell cultures often fail to capture the complex structural and functional heterogeneity of tumors, limiting the translational relevance of findings. In contrast, 3D culture systems, such as spheroids, provide a more physiologically relevant context by replicating key aspects of the tumor microenvironment. This study aimed to compare the metabolism of three intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma cell lines in 2D and 3D cultures to identify metabolic shifts associated with spheroid formation. Cells were cultured in 2D on adhesion plates and in 3D using ultra-low attachment plates. Metabolic exchange rates were measured using NMR, and intracellular metabolites were analyzed using LC-MS. Significant metabolic differences were observed between 2D and 3D cultures, with notable changes in central carbon and glutathione metabolism in 3D spheroids. The results suggest that 3D cultures, which more closely mimic the in vivo environment, may offer a more accurate platform for cancer research and drug testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To resolve the issue of predicting the leak rate in proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) under long-term random vibration conditions. Considering the mechanism of bolt vibration loosening and rubber vibration relaxation, a leakage mechanism model of the PEMFC sealing structure under vibration conditions is proposed, and the validity of the model is verified by experimental comparison. The model clearly reveals the quantitative effects of structural parameters and material parameters on the leakage rate of PEMFC under vibration conditions. The research results show that under long-term random vibration conditions, the change of PEMFC leakage rate with time is mainly divided into three stages: response stage, stable stage, and leakage stage. Compared to bolt vibration loosening, the rubber vibration relaxation has a more significant impact on PEMFC leakage, the leakage rate of the fuel cell stack is 433ppm after 10,000 hrs of vibration. In addition, increasing the bolt preload, changing the bolt distribution, reducing surface roughness, and reducing gasket thickness can effectively suppress PEMFC leakage under random vibration conditions, the minimum leakage rate of the fuel cell stack can be reduced to around 170ppm per 10,000 hours. The proposed mechanism model provides an effective method for predicting the leakage rate of PEMFC sealing structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test the impact of globalization on the inflation process (global slack hypothesis) for 15 emerging economies over the period (1996Q1-2019Q4). The novelty of this article lies in testing the impact of globalization on the inflation process. We introduce the smooth transition regression (STR) model of the Phillips curve to capture the gradual impacts of globalization on inflation dynamics. The main results are as follows. (i) The asymmetries in inflation exist that are not captured by the linear Phillips curve. (ii) The domestic output gap remains a main driving force of inflation. (iii) Globalization based on the trade weighted average of the domestic output gap does not affect the inflation process compared to other variables like the trade openness, import prices, real exchange rate and international oil prices. Our results yield important implications that the central banks of the emerging economies can stabilize inflation and output gap in an effective way, exploiting the inflation-output gap relationship. When economic expansion of the trading partners increases, the process of inflation dynamics changes in two economies (Brazil, and China). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) is quantified by evaluating a Z-spectra, where CEST signal quantification and Z-spectra fitting have been widely used to distinguish the contributions from multiple origins. Based on the exchange-dependent relaxation rate in the rotating frame (Rex), this paper introduces an additional pathway to quantitative separation of CEST effect. The proposed Rex-line-fit method is solved by a multi-pool model and presents the advantage of only being dependent of the specific parameters (solute concentration, solute‐water exchange rate, solute transverse relaxation, and irradiation power). Herein we show that both solute‐water exchange rate and solute concentration monotonously vary with Rex for Amide, Guanidino, NOE and MT, which has the potential to assist in solving quantitative separation of CEST effect. Furthermore, we achieve Rex imaging of Amide, Guanidino, NOE and MT, which may provide direct insight into the dependency of measurable CEST effects on underlying parameters such as the exchange rate and solute concentration, as well as the solute transverse relaxation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign investment can mitigate the foreign exchange constraint of developing countries. It can also influence the economy's international competitiveness through appreciating or depreciating exchange rates. The exchange rate impact of domestic investment is also not straightforward and depends on some critical factors. These issues of investment often pose a policy dilemma. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the relative impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (DI), and external debt on India's real effective exchange rate and the rupee/dollar real rate for the liberalized regime for trade, investment, and exchange rates. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration, followed by its error correction representation, finds that real exchange rate variations are associated with FDI, debt, DI, and some control variables. FDI and debt depreciate real exchange rates, indicating that these have not exacerbated the economy's international competitiveness. However, DI causes real appreciation. These findings are consistent across estimations involving alternative specifications of control variables. Offsetting impacts of FDI and DI is an interesting finding. This can stabilize the exchange rates by undermining appreciating or depreciating exchange rate trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multivariate time series have more complex and high‐dimensional characteristics, which makes it difficult to analyze and predict the data accurately. In this paper, a new multivariate time series prediction method is proposed. This method is a generative adversarial networks (GAN) method based on Fourier transform and bi‐directional gated recurrent unit (Bi‐GRU). First, the Fourier transform is utilized to extend the data features, which helps the GAN to better learn the distributional features of the original data. Second, in order to guide the model to fully learn the distribution of the original time series data, Bi‐GRU is introduced as the generator of GAN. To solve the problems of mode collapse and gradient vanishing that exist in GAN, Wasserstein distance is used as the loss function of GAN. Finally, the proposed method is used for the prediction of air quality, stock price and RMB exchange rate. The experimental results show that the model can effectively predict the trend of the time series compared with the other nine baseline models. It significantly improves the accuracy and flexibility of multivariate time series forecasting and provides new ideas and methods for accurate time series forecasting in industrial, financial and environmental fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on sectoral stock volatility by employing the intraday volatility measure directly calculated from the original data, using daily data from 27 Borsa Istanbul sectors between April 29, 2003, and April 25, 2023. In the literature, GARCH models are commonly used to study the volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices, typically using aggregate data. However, the GARCH family models provide inefficient and biased estimates if they are misspecified. Moreover, using aggregate-level data may lead to biased and misleading conclusions. The research used intraday volatility measures to overcome the shortcomings of GARCH models. The ordinary least squares (OLS), GARCH (1,1) methods, and Garman and Klass (1980) volatility estimator are used. The empirical results showed that the estimates from each method vary significantly, and these disparities in the results might be due to misspecification in GARCH (1,1) models. The intraday volatility model estimation results showed that although stock price volatilities in all sectors are positively and significantly affected by exchange rate volatility, their magnitudes vary significantly. Taken together, this implies the presence of vast heterogeneities in the responses of sectoral stock price volatilities to exchange rate volatility. The results encourage policymakers to pay special attention to these heterogeneities to prevent capital flights and underinvestment. Additionally, the findings assist investors in making more effective decisions by helping them adapt their investment strategies to factor in exchange rate fluctuations and mitigate the impact of unexpected events in the exchange rate market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international nature of health tourism, which has an increasing importance, makes its interaction with the real exchange rate a prominent research topic. On this basis, this study aims to examine the relationship between health tourism revenues and real exchange rate for Türkiye, and to determine to what extent the preferences of health tourists traveling to this country are price- or cost-centered. For this purpose, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality analyses and the dataset for the period Q1 2002 – Q4 2019 were used. Findings of cointegration analysis supported that there is a long-term relationship between real exchange rate and health tourism revenues. Accordingly, a 1% change in all, developed, and developing trading partner countries based real exchange rate causes a change of 2.4065%, 2.6108%, and 2.1383% in health tourism revenues in reverse direction, respectively. These findings indicate that health tourism revenues are highly sensitive to the changes in real exchange rates. Furthermore, Granger causality analysis supported a one-way causal relationship from all three real exchange rates to health tourism revenues. Considering the findings, it is possible to state despite the high quality of health services in Türkiye, prices or costs are significantly effective in the decisions of health tourists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, three types of horizontal ground heat exchangers (GHEs) such as U-tube, spiral, and slinky were numerically analyzed to investigate their thermal performance in cooling mode for 7 days of continuous operation with specific boundary conditions where a rectangular trench of 5 m in length, 2 m in width, and 5 m in depth served as the basis for the modeling of each heat exchanger. The pipe material was selected to be high density polyethylene for higher durability and corrosion resistance, as well as the soil and working fluid, which were clay and water. To confirm the accuracy of simulation results and reduce the computational time, a mesh independence test was performed, and simulation models were validated. There were four types of modifications, and in all of the cases, slinky GHE has better thermal performance. For instance, the heat exchange rate per unit trench length of slinky GHE was 20.72 W/m, which is higher than U-tube and spiral tube with a heat exchange rate of 9.75 and 13.62 W/m, which is of maximum 53% and 28% than U tube GHE, respectively, for the same pipe wall thickness and different material volumes of U-tube, spiral, and slinky GHEs. The pressure drop of slinky GHE is also higher (maximum 87% higher than U tube). To balance the heat exchange rate and pressure drop, the thermal performance capability (TPC) was examined. The slinky GHE has the highest thermal performance capability for all the cases. From the energy balance point, the TPC valued a maximum of 1.72 for the same material volume and different pipe wall thickness. The effectiveness was investigated to examine the heat exchange rate with different ground temperatures, and the slinky GHE showed higher effectiveness than spiral and U-tube GHEs. Finally, the thermal performance of slinky horizontal GHE was examined with different trench lengths to investigate the excavation work reduction with reduced trench length. With the decrease in trench length, the heat exchange rate and excavation work also decreased. The heat exchange rate of slinky horizontal GHEs with trench lengths of 1.5 and 1 m remained better than that of spiral and U-tube horizontal GHEs with a trench length of 3.5 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the response of economic fundamentals to a misalignment shock of the real effective exchange rate in Korea. The estimation results of the equilibrium exchange rate determination model and time series model show that there is no significant difference in the direction of the deviation from equilibrium and that the won is significantly undervalued during the period before 1988, or during the currency and global financial crises. The cumulative impulse response analysis of the VAR model over the full period shows that an upward shock to the deviation from the equilibrium exchange rate reduces the GDP gap and inflation rate, while the effect on the call rate is not statistically significant. Furthermore, an upward misalignment shock initially worsens the goods and services balance, but the deficit in the goods and services balance shrinks significantly over time. In rolling regressions analysis, the entire sample is divided into two periods to estimate the impulse response function from the first period, and then the same procedure is repeated by moving the sample forward one by one. The cumulative impulse response results show that, as is the case for the full period, a positive exchange rate misalignment shock initially reduces the GDP gap, inflation, and worsens the goods and services balance, but the impact of this upward shock on these variables becomes increasingly weaker in the more recent sample. It also shows that the negative impact of upward shocks on the current account is smoothed out more recently during periods of undervaluation than during periods of overvaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fractional cointegration in time series data has been explored by several authors, but panel data applications have been largely neglected. A previous study of ours discovered that the Chen and Hurvich fractional cointegration test for time series was fairly robust to a moderate degree of heterogeneity across sections of the six tests considered. Therefore, this paper advances a customized version of the Chen and Hurvich methodology to detect cointegrating connections in panels with unobserved fixed effects. Specifically, we develop a test statistic that accommodates variation in the long-term cointegrating vectors and fractional cointegration parameters across observational units. The behavior of our proposed test is examined through extensive Monte Carlo experiments under various data-generating processes and circumstances. The findings reveal that our modified test performs quite well comparatively and can successfully identify fractional cointegrating relationships in panels, even in the presence of idiosyncratic disturbances unique to each cross-sectional unit. Furthermore, the proposed modified test procedure established the presence of long-run equilibrium between the exchange rate and labor wage of 36 countries' agricultural markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether and how export growth to China varies following shocks in bilateral political relations between China and six Southeast Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—between 2000 and 2019. High‐frequency news data is used to quantify bilateral political relations between each of the six countries and China. Then, a net cooperation index, plus separate indices of political cooperation and conflict, are placed in an augmented gravity model of trade situated in a vector autoregression framework alongside real exchange rate and industrial production variables to examine the short‐ (months) and long‐run (years) effects of shocks to bilateral political relations on each countryʼs exports growth to China. The results reveal that political relations with China played a role in Thailandʼs and Vietnamʼs exports growth to China but not in Indonesiaʼs, Malaysiaʼs, the Philippinesʼ and Singaporeʼs, and contribute new findings to the literature on politics and trade. Code and data for the analysis is available at: https://github.com/tradepolsrepository/tradepols.git. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate in 36 developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach: The panel data conducted a comparative analysis and used panel least squares, regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors of fixed effect, random effect, feasible generalised least squares and maximum likelihood robust least squares to overcome the heterogeneity issue. Furthermore, the two-step difference generalised method of moments to overcome the endogeneity issue. Diagnostic tests were used to increase robustness. Findings: In the studied countries, there was a statistically significant negative relationship between received remittance inflows and the price-level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate. This relationship explains why remittance flows depreciate the real exchange rate. The study's results also indicated that attracting investments can improve the quality of institutions despite high tax rates, leading to low tax revenue. Originality/value: The current study findings enrich the understanding of policies of how governments should minimise tariff rates on capital imports and introduce export-oriented incentive programmes. The study also revealed that Dutch disease can occur due to differences in the demand structure and manufacturing development policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7). Design/methodology/approach: The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows. Findings: The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada. Research limitations/implications: The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development. Originality/value: The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) has enabled more suppliers to expand into overseas markets, meeting increasingly diverse consumer demands. Selecting an effective logistics mode is a crucial issue for suppliers, yet uncertainty in demand and exchange rate fluctuations make this problem challenging. This paper considers a supply chain consisting of a supplier and a CBEC platform. Using a distributionally robust optimization approach, we provide optimal overseas warehousing strategies and logistics mode selection for suppliers, given partial distribution information of market demand and exchange rate, such as means, variances, and covariances. It is found that when demand and exchange rate fluctuations are small, the supplier chooses the bonded warehouse logistics mode to reduce costs. Conversely, when demand and exchange rate fluctuations increase, the supplier opts for the direct mail mode to respond flexibly to market risk. The correlation between exchange rate and demand also affects the choice of logistics mode. Specifically, with low correlation, the preference is for the bonded warehouse mode, whereas high correlation leads suppliers to choose the direct mail mode. In addition, the impact of demand and exchange rate fluctuations on suppliers' overseas warehousing volumes depends on the product's profit margin. These findings provide guidance for the selection of CBEC logistics under exchange rate risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting financial stability is one of the main priorities for the governments of countries seeking to achieve sustainable economic growth. The article aims to assess and model the impact of macroeconomic factors on the financial stability of the Russian Federation in the period 2010-2030 using ADF, OLS, VAR, ARCH, VECM and other techniques. In addition, the linear causal relationship between a group of 6 macroeconomic indicators and the financial stability of the Russian Federation was studied. The results of this research show that Russia's financial stability depends mainly on exports of crude oil and natural gas, price stability, volume of government debt, deficits and surpluses of the state's budget, exchange rate stabilization of national currency, and effectiveness of the banking system. Additionally, events taking place in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the African continent may negatively affect Russia's financial security if it fails to take the necessary preventive measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malcolm Bradbury's novel Rates of Exchange, taking the economic term "rates of exchange" as a central metaphor, depicts various exchanges occurring in the socio-economic landscape of Britain during the 1970s and 1980s. In the context of governmental emphasis on economic development, the novel intricately explores exchanges among diverse entities, playing with multiple meanings of the term "exchange". In this way, the novel itself becomes a form of "legal tender," exchanged for reader comprehension, communication, and participation. It highlights the ubiquitous presence of exchange and the risks associated with the uncertain exchange rates between different entities. Furthermore, it invites readers to participate in the story-telling and the nostalgic journey back to British literary tradition. This paper, drawing on Roland Barthes's semiotic theory along with structuralist and poststructuralist concepts, investigates the multifaceted meanings of "exchange" in the novel. Through this analysis, the paper aims to illuminate the semiotic significance of various narrative forms and the profound thematic concerns in Bradbury's work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to estimate the amount of money laundering (ML) with multiple proxy approaches and measure the effects of ML on various indicators of the economic and financial sectors. Theoretical justifications are recruited from the parasite theory of organised crime. Design/methodology/approach: A quantitative research methodology was used on a balanced panel data set to test the study's hypothesis through generalised method of moment (GMM). The study sample consisted of 77 countries, and the data was collected for 15 years (2005–2019). Findings: A study has found that 1.23% of global gross domestic product is laundered yearly, and there is no noticeable decline in ML activities. Further study has also found that ML has devastating effects on countries, government revenue, foreign investment, economic development, political and peace conditions, bank liquidity, interest rate volatility and exchange rate volatility. The study has not witnessed the negative consequence of ML on countries' inflation rates. Practical implications: Estimates of the study guide policymakers about the volume of resources fleeing and helps them to decide the level of response needed. Further findings help them prioritise the response system according to the area most affected. Originality/value: This study is an original contribution by the authors and has studied the effects of ML by computing the amount of ML by four different proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the adoption of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the order founded on the treaty has evolved into an increasingly fragmented regime complex. Fragmentation has resulted from forum-shifting initiated both at the top and at the bottom of the nuclear hierarchy: both the United States, with varying partners, and coalitions of small-and medium-sized non-nuclear states have repeatedly moved rule-making on nuclear issues to fora outside the NPT, adding partly conflicting institutions to the complex. To understand this dynamic, I propose a sociological perspective that highlights states' positional struggles in a multidimensionally stratified international society. Drawing on Bourdieusian global fields theory, I argue that both dominant and weak states use forum-shifting to manipulate exchange rates between different (material, institutional and social) forms of capital they possess. Thus, they seek to protect their positions in global hierarchies within and beyond the nuclear field when they perceive these hierarchies as being challenged by material or institutional power shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the parallel and official exchange rates of Chinese Yuan (CNY) to U.S. Dollar (USD). Motivated by recent evidence about Bitcoin as a major channel for capital flight from China, we construct a parallel exchange rate implied by Bitcoin prices in the Chinese and U.S. crypto exchanges. While the dual exchange rates are cointegrated, adjustment to long-run equilibrium is non-linear and depends on policy changes and state of the markets. Results from our Markov Switching Vector Error Correction model suggest the parallel exchange rate responds one-to-one in the long-run with respect to an official exchange rate innovation. However, an unexpected change in the parallel rate is countered by an opposite and state-dependent response in the official exchange rate, suggesting active exchange policy interventions by the Chinese monetary authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the long-run relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar by analyzing the bilateral exchange rate induced by nominal and real shocks. The methodology centers on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, including the analysis of impulse response and variance decomposition to account for the impact of nominal and real shocks on exchange rate movements. This study also decomposes real shocks into demand and supply factors from both Canada and the U.S. and compares their impacts on the nominal and real exchange rates. The results are compared to shocks driven by country-specific nominal factors. This study uses quarterly data from December 1972 to December 2023. The findings suggest that real shocks have a permanent impact on both the nominal and real exchange rates, compared to nominal shocks, which have a temporary impact. Country-specific real supply-side factors have a more significant impact than country-specific real demand-side factors. Country-specific nominal factors barely impacted the nominal and real exchange rates between the U.S. and Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floodplains are essential ecosystems that provide a variety of economic, hydrologic, and ecologic services. Within floodplains, surface water‐groundwater exchange plays an important role in facilitating biogeochemical processes and can have a strong influence on stream hydrology through infiltration or discharge of water. These functions can be difficult to assess due to the heterogeneity of floodplains and monitoring constraints, so numerical models are useful tools to estimate fluxes, especially at large spatial extents. In this study, we use the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) ecohydrological model to quantify magnitudes and spatiotemporal patterns of floodplain surface water‐groundwater exchange in a mountainous watershed using an updated version of the gwflow module that directly calculates floodplain‐aquifer exchange rates during periods of floodplain inundation. The gwflow module is a spatially distributed groundwater modelling subroutine within the SWAT+ code that uses a gridded network and physically based equations to predict groundwater storage, groundwater head, and groundwater fluxes. We used SWAT+ to model the 7516 km2 Colorado River headwaters watershed and streamflow data from USGS gages for calibration and testing. Models that included floodplain‐groundwater interactions outperformed those without such interactions and provided valuable information about floodplain exchange rates and volumes. Our analyses on the location of floodplain fluxes in the watershed also show that wider areas of floodplains, "beads" (e.g., like beads on a necklace), exchanged a higher net and per area volume of water, as well as higher rates of exchange, compared to narrower areas, "strings." Study results show that floodplain channel‐groundwater exchange is a valuable process to include in hydrologic models, and model outputs could inform land conservation practises by indicating priority locations, such as beads, where substantial hydrologic exchange occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt flows and banking flows have a significant positive impact on currency crises. Finally, our results suggest that countries with mature financial systems and fixed exchange rate regimes are less likely to experience a currency crisis after a capital flow shock. The mediating role of capital account liberalization varies by country type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 Global Health Pandemic introduced a number of economic challenges to countries around the world. Notably, most policymakers implemented greater fiscal spending and monetary stimulus. For the first time, 15 emerging market economies experimented quantitative easing. Most were not constrained by the zero-lower-bound condition, and the degree of financial depth, central bank independence, and central bank transparency varied significantly. This research yields three critical findings. First, emerging markets experienced declines in capital flows and depreciation pressure stemming from quantitative easing. Second, quantitative easing in advanced economies had a more sizable and significant effect than domestic policies. Finally, the degree of financial development and central bank independence are key drivers in how quantitative easing impacts exchange rates specifically. More developed financial systems and greater central bank independence correspond to dampening the effect of quantitative easing on exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Profile mixture models capture distinct biochemical constraints on the amino acid substitution process at different sites in proteins. These models feature a mixture of time-reversible models with a common matrix of exchangeabilities and distinct sets of equilibrium amino acid frequencies known as profiles. Combining the exchangeability matrix with each profile generates the matrix of instantaneous rates of amino acid exchange for that profile. Currently, empirically estimated exchangeability matrices (e.g. the LG matrix) are widely used for phylogenetic inference under profile mixture models. However, these were estimated using a single profile and are unlikely optimal for profile mixture models. Here, we describe the GTRpmix model that allows maximum likelihood estimation of a common exchangeability matrix under any profile mixture model. We show that exchangeability matrices estimated under profile mixture models differ from the LG matrix, dramatically improving model fit and topological estimation accuracy for empirical test cases. Because the GTRpmix model is computationally expensive, we provide two exchangeability matrices estimated from large concatenated phylogenomic-supermatrices to be used for phylogenetic analyses. One, called Eukaryotic Linked Mixture (ELM), is designed for phylogenetic analysis of proteins encoded by nuclear genomes of eukaryotes, and the other, Eukaryotic and Archaeal Linked mixture (EAL), for reconstructing relationships between eukaryotes and Archaea. These matrices, combined with profile mixture models, fit data better and have improved topology estimation relative to the LG matrix combined with the same mixture models. Starting with version 2.3.1, IQ-TREE2 allows users to estimate linked exchangeabilities (i.e. amino acid exchange rates) under profile mixture models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fiscal policy's impact on the real exchange rates is highly controversial in theory and practice but noteworthy for macroeconomic policy. This issue is more pertinent in developing countries with an active fiscal policy or wider fiscal space but is explored less. To our knowledge, the fiscal policy impact on the real exchange rate in India is not documented. Against this backdrop, this study explores this in India involving disaggregated data of government consumption and investment spending and a few related variables like trade openness, private consumption spending, and money supply for the period 1996:1–2023:1. The results corroborate long-run associations of real exchange rate and some combinations of the selected other variables. The real exchange rate dynamics estimated through the cointegrated vector autoregressive model followed by an impulse response analysis have shown that government investment spending causes a real appreciation. In contrast, government and private consumption spending exert pressure to depreciate the real exchange rate. Trade openness is another potent predictor of the real exchange rate. On the other hand, no significant impact of the money supply on the real exchange rate is noticed. The results accentuate effective fiscal allocation may be a policy tool for stabilizing the Indian rupee. The unique findings on the Indian economy may also help understand the fiscal effect of real exchange rates in other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the empirical link between remittance inflows and India's economic growth, particularly emphasizing the association's asymmetries as the prior studies were neglected. Therefore, it formulated a growth function that assesses the non-linear influence of the remittance inflows on economic growth by endogenizing the gross fixed capital formation, official exchange rate, and export growth. Relying on the annual time series data for India, the work uses the Non-Linear Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model to expose the non-linear influence of the remittance inflows on economic growth by controlling the gross fixed capital formation, official exchange rate, and export growth for the period ranges from 1975 to 2021. The outcomes show the presence of the long-run relationship among the variables vector. Further, the results indicate an asymmetric impact of remittance inflows on economic growth both in the long run and short run. Moreover, the findings reveal a rise in the remittance inflows leads to an increase in economic growth, whereas a fall in the remittance inflows ends up in a reduction of economic growth. Additionally, the outcomes show a negative and significant impact of gross fixed capital formation and official exchange rate on economic growth in the long run. It also observed an insignificant negative influence of export growth on the specified growth model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of countries have launched their central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in recent years, but the economic impacts of CBDC adoption are underexplored. To empirically assess how CBDC adoption influences regional economic integration, this paper investigates the Greater Bay Area, where China carried out one of its first digital renminbi pilot programs. The Greater Bay Area provides a good example because the growing acceptance of digital renminbi in the area can potentially mitigate transaction costs and risks due to the exchange rate volatility of the Chinese renminbi, Hong Kong dollar, and Macao pataca. CBDC adoption can lead to greater real and financial integrations by facilitating cross-border trade in goods and services. This paper evaluates deviations from uncovered interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and real interest rate parity across Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao based on monthly interest rate and price data from January 2016 to December 2022. The time series have mean values near zero, which validate the parity conditions and indicate high degrees of financial, real, and economic integrations. The Markov regime-switching regression model identifies three regimes: (1) pre-Covid, (2) post-Covid, and (3) post-CBDC. The Covid-19 outbreak brought lower integration and stability, but the launch of the CBDC restored some of the pre-Covid integration and stability. Regimes 1 and 2 are persistent, and transitions from Regime 3 back to Regime 1 are probable. Hence, this study finds evidence that CBDC adoption improves regional economic integration in the short and long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, average CO2 emissions was 9.7 g CO2/g H2 produced, primarily based on steam methane reforming (SMR) technology that currently dominates hydrogen production. The substitution of natural gas (NG) and other fossil feedstocks in SMRs with renewable gases may be considered as an option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This analysis explores process impacts and constraints associated with the potential introduction of biogenic gases into SMRs. The results indicate that replacing NG in the fuel train of the SMR, followed by partial replacement of NG in the feed train may be a feasible approach. For the CO‐ and CO2‐rich gas compositions assumed in this analysis the results indicate that feed train may accommodate up to 25 mole % of biogenic gases using allowances in existing designs and/or with small modifications, while maintaining similar hydrogen output. NG substitution in higher proportions require more major changes because of increased flow rates and heat exchange requirements in the system. Biogenic gases with lower CO2 and higher calorific values are advantageous for NG substitution, and dry reforming using the CO2 present in the feed gas can reduce steam consumption and increase process efficiency within limits where coking does not become a new constraint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate the interaction between nucleation and the rates of chemical reduction in Au/Ag, Au/Pt and Au/Pd nanoparticles prepared in microemulsions using a one-pot method. The impact of nucleation on final nanostructure depends on the critical nucleus size value: at a high critical nucleus size, nucleation becomes the main factor in determining the final nanostructure, even with a very large difference in reduction rates, as seen in the Au/Pd pair. However, when the critical nucleus size is small, the difference in reduction rates of the two metals becomes the key parameter determining the final nanostructure. Furthermore, the relevance of heteroatomic nucleation on the mechanism of nanoparticle formation depends on the difference between the reduction rates of the two metals. Smaller differences, such as in the Au/Ag or Au/Pt pairs, result in a greater impact of heteroatomic nucleation on the final nanostructure. In contrast, in the Au/Pd pair, heteroatomic nucleation becomes less important due to the low availability of Pd until late stages of synthesis. This study provides deeper insight into the complex mechanisms that govern reactions in microemulsions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]